TABLE 1
U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS
ECONOMIC VARIABLE FISCAL YEAR 2003 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR.
FISCAL YEAR 2004
4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.
1ST. QTR.
REAL GDP (1996 Chained $, Billions) Global Insight 9,499.1 OMB 9,519.4 CBO 9,492.8 OIL AND GAS PRICE INDEX (1996 EQUALS 100) Global Insight 116.4 OMB 108.3 CBO (Energy Deflator) 117.3 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (1982-84 EQUALS 100) Global Insight 181.6 OMB 181.6 CBO 181.6
9,575.0 9,583.0 9,516.5
9,653.9 9,664.2 9,545.2
9,745.7 9,750.6 9,607.4
9,852.8 9,840.2 9,727.3
9,988.2 9,927.6 9,859.3
10,097.8 10,015.9 9,967.8
10,195.9 10,104.8 10,063.0
114.0 104.5 117.6
113.3 100.4 118.4
113.0 97.0 119.1
114.0 94.4 119.8
112.0 94.8 120.6
109.4 95.2 121.4
108.9 95.5 122.2
182.5 182.4 182.5
183.5 183.3 183.5
184.7 184.2 184.4
185.8 185.2 185.4
187.0 186.1 186.4
188.1 187.1 187.4
189.3 188.1 188.5
Source: Global Insight, November 2002; Office of Management and Budget, December 2002; Congressional Budget Office, November 2002.