IN SEARCH OF... The Russian Military AGENDA Admin Website of the Day Nuclear Proliferation Civil Military Relations Russian Military: Force and Doctrine ADMINISTRATIVE "Critical Condition: The Russian Health and Demographic Crisis," by Judith Lunch Monday Twigg. • Monday, May 14 4pm, Branden Hudsen • 550 Prior Health Sciences Library, Roman Nitze Medical Heritage Center, 376 W 10th Ave, OSU Campus Lunch Wednesday • Free and open to the public. Jeff Rose • Sponsored by the OSU School of Public Kelly Woods Health and the Center for Slavic and East European Studies. Michael Cohen • For more information, call 292-8770. Essay Two due on 5/21 (11 days from now) Start coming with ideas this weekend Make more efficient use of your reading time Do some poking around on the various websites Seniors Senior Final: 5/28 at 1:00 in 0150 Derby Hall Senior Papers Due: 5/29 NO LATER THAN 5:00 Reclammae Whom do We Owe a Dollar? NEWS NUCLEAR SECURITY AND PROLIFERATION: BACKGROUND Soviet goals Avoid nuclear war Substantial numerical superiority Forward deployment Mutual assured destruction No first strike Prepare for a deep strike Fulda Gap (David Halloway’s “Stalin and the Bomb”) ARMS NEGOTIATIONS SALT I signed in 1972 ABM component: 2 ABM areas 1974 Protocol changed this to one (Moscow and Silos) 1995 reaffirmed by Yeltsin and Clinton ICBM/SLBM limits Gave edge to Soviets MIRV technology and ABM component SALT II Signed in 1979 Limited delivery systems and MIRVs Hardened silos, bombers, cruise missiles Ratification Problems Talks (renamed START and INF) essentially stalled until... GORBACHEV Needed to Fix the Economy Looked Serious about Cutbacks Euphoria as US and USSR in bidding war INF Treaty Signed in 1987 CFE Treaty Signed in 1990… But Gorby Lost His Job… YELTSIN and PUTIN START I (1991, implemented in 1994) Kazakstan, Belarus, Ukraine??? START II (signed in late 1992, ratified last year) Halved again, to about 3000(!) START III (hopeless?) Future of the ABM Treaty doubtful Current status of strategic forces Command Exercise New systems Upkeep and fielding of new equipment FOUR SOURCES of NUCLEAR MATERIAL Ministry of Defense Strategic Tactical Security Measures Minatom (Military) Grows by 60 tons a year! Minatom (Civil) includes nuclear storage Science and Research widespread, but shrinking cheap locks and occasional guards SUPPLY SIDE Economic chaos Power of the mafia Security procedures require support Relatively easy to smuggle/transport DEMAND SIDE Groups Want the Power Some groups have money Technical considerations But “Brain Drain”… CHOKE POINT None: makes defense difficult What can the US do? Will the situation improve? What are we doing to help? 1991 Nunn-Lugar Act Provide secure transportation Provide assistance dismantling Fund research (ISTC) Assistance with storage and accounting HIGHLIGHTS OF CURRENT SITUATION Difficulty establishing an export regime Strategic Forces necessary but out of favor Collapse of military and civilian structures? Uncertain security situation RUSSIA’S MEMBERSHIPS Export Control Regime Russia’s chemical demilitarization program has suffered from serious funding problems, prompting Moscow to miss a CWC deadline to destroy 1 Wassenaar Arrangement… percent of its Category 1 chemical weapons by Dual Use April 29, 2000. To date, Russia has only destroyed specialized chemical weapons components but not Arms Exports any agent under the CWC. Construction has started on only one of Russia’s chemical weapons MTCR destruction facilities, which will not begin destruction activities until at least 2002. Moscow CWC, Australia Convention currently intends to build two more destruction facilities but has yet to finalize its plans. NSG and NPT PfP and OSCE (and of course UN, CIS) RUSSIAN ARMY What do you think of the readings? Favorites? Hates? Concerns? What struck you about the stories told? What stories remain to be told? What questions do you have? CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS What does regime stability demand? What does democracy require? What is the situation in Russia? Are they a powerful political force? Why/why not? Is this okay? Does the possibility of a coup exist? HISTORY SAYS... 1991: How NOT to run a coup… 1993: Accounts differ 1994-95: Chechnya Defections 1995: Elections 1999: Putin? MILITARY REFORM “On the verge of collapse…” Agree? Disagree? Problems: Equipment Personnel Training and Combat Readiness Doctrine MILITARY REFORM II Consolidation/Elimination at lower echelons Cut Unnecessary Fat Could be real opportunity but… Fewer Training Academies, etc. NEW MILITARY DOCTRINE Defensive in Nature Statement of Situation Decline in threat of large scale war Increase in small scale problems Exacerbated By: Ignoring UN and OSCE Non sanctioned “humanitarian intervention” Violation of arms treaties Other international meddling (Don’t forget the information doctrine!) NEWS ON MILITARY REFORM From Jane’s Russia has no more Photo Spy Satellites Russia’s Arms Bazaar China and India, Iran Shanghai Five Putin Reinvents the KGB Russian Military Reform: mass media control and information security (!) Paras Flying High Putin Wields his Scalpel Putin Appointments Aim to Bolster Armed Forces Reform Putin to Cut Russia’s Regular Armed Forces by a Third CIVIL-MILTARY RELATIONS REVISITED It’s bad in the military Why so quiet? Kim Zisk’s Argument Exit or Voice Or … So why do they stay? So why do they stay quiet? DISCUSSION Where should Russia go from here? National Interest?