Soviet and Post Soviet Foreign Policy

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            The Russian Military
AGENDA
 Admin
 Website of the Day
 Nuclear Proliferation
 Civil Military Relations
 Russian Military: Force and Doctrine
ADMINISTRATIVE                             "Critical Condition: The Russian Health
                                           and Demographic Crisis," by Judith
  Lunch Monday                             Twigg.
                                           • Monday, May 14 4pm,
     Branden Hudsen                        • 550 Prior Health Sciences Library,
     Roman Nitze                                      Medical Heritage Center,
                                                      376 W 10th Ave, OSU Campus
  Lunch Wednesday                          • Free and open to the public.
     Jeff Rose                             • Sponsored by the OSU School of Public
     Kelly Woods                                      Health and the Center for Slavic
                                                      and East European Studies.
     Michael Cohen                         • For more information, call 292-8770.
  Essay Two due on 5/21 (11 days from now)
     Start coming with ideas this weekend
     Make more efficient use of your reading time
     Do some poking around on the various websites
  Seniors
     Senior Final: 5/28 at 1:00 in 0150 Derby Hall
     Senior Papers Due: 5/29 NO LATER THAN 5:00
  Reclammae
  Whom do We Owe a Dollar?
NEWS
NUCLEAR SECURITY AND
PROLIFERATION:
BACKGROUND
 Soviet goals
   Avoid nuclear war
       Substantial numerical superiority
       Forward deployment
       Mutual assured destruction
       No first strike
 Prepare for a deep strike
       Fulda Gap
 (David Halloway’s “Stalin and the Bomb”)
ARMS NEGOTIATIONS
SALT I signed in 1972
  ABM component: 2 ABM areas
      1974 Protocol changed this to one (Moscow and Silos)
      1995 reaffirmed by Yeltsin and Clinton

  ICBM/SLBM limits

Gave edge to Soviets
  MIRV technology and ABM component
SALT II
Signed in 1979
  Limited delivery systems and MIRVs
      Hardened silos, bombers, cruise missiles
Ratification Problems
Talks (renamed START and INF) essentially
stalled until...
GORBACHEV
Needed to Fix the Economy
Looked Serious about Cutbacks
  Euphoria as US and USSR in bidding war
  INF Treaty Signed in 1987
  CFE Treaty Signed in 1990…

But Gorby Lost His Job…
YELTSIN and PUTIN
START I (1991, implemented in 1994)
   Kazakstan, Belarus, Ukraine???
START II (signed in late 1992, ratified last year)
   Halved again, to about 3000(!)
START III (hopeless?)
Future of the ABM Treaty doubtful
Current status of strategic forces
   Command Exercise
   New systems
   Upkeep and fielding of new equipment
FOUR SOURCES of NUCLEAR
MATERIAL
Ministry of Defense
   Strategic
   Tactical




                                       Security Measures
Minatom (Military)
   Grows by 60 tons a year!
Minatom (Civil)
   includes nuclear storage
Science and Research
   widespread, but shrinking
   cheap locks and occasional guards
SUPPLY SIDE
Economic chaos
Power of the mafia
Security procedures require support
Relatively easy to smuggle/transport

DEMAND SIDE
Groups Want the Power
Some groups have money
Technical considerations
  But “Brain Drain”…
CHOKE POINT
None: makes defense difficult
What can the US do?
Will the situation improve?
What are we doing to help?
  1991 Nunn-Lugar Act
      Provide secure transportation
      Provide assistance dismantling
      Fund research (ISTC)
      Assistance with storage and accounting
HIGHLIGHTS OF CURRENT
SITUATION
Difficulty establishing an export regime
Strategic Forces necessary
  but out of favor
Collapse of military and civilian structures?
Uncertain security situation
RUSSIA’S MEMBERSHIPS
 Export Control Regime      Russia’s chemical demilitarization program has
                            suffered from serious funding problems, prompting
                            Moscow to miss a CWC deadline to destroy 1
   Wassenaar Arrangement…   percent of its Category 1 chemical weapons by
        Dual Use           April 29, 2000. To date, Russia has only destroyed
                            specialized chemical weapons components but not
        Arms Exports       any agent under the CWC. Construction has
                            started on only one of Russia’s chemical weapons
   MTCR                     destruction facilities, which will not begin
                            destruction activities until at least 2002. Moscow
 CWC, Australia Convention  currently intends to build two more destruction
                            facilities but has yet to finalize its plans.

 NSG and NPT
 PfP and OSCE (and of course UN, CIS)
RUSSIAN ARMY
 What do you think of the readings?
        Favorites? Hates? Concerns?

 What struck you about the stories told?
 What stories remain to be told?
 What questions do you have?
CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS

 What does regime stability demand?
 What does democracy require?
 What is the situation in Russia?
 Are they a powerful political force?
   Why/why not?
   Is this okay?
 Does the possibility of a coup exist?
HISTORY SAYS...
 1991: How NOT to run a coup…
 1993: Accounts differ
 1994-95: Chechnya Defections
 1995: Elections
 1999: Putin?
MILITARY REFORM
 “On the verge of collapse…”
       Agree? Disagree?


 Problems:
       Equipment

       Personnel

       Training and Combat Readiness

       Doctrine
MILITARY REFORM II

    Consolidation/Elimination at lower echelons

    Cut Unnecessary Fat

      Could   be real opportunity but…

    Fewer Training Academies, etc.
NEW MILITARY DOCTRINE

   Defensive in Nature
   Statement of Situation
     Decline in threat of large scale war
     Increase in small scale problems
   Exacerbated By:
     Ignoring UN and OSCE
     Non sanctioned “humanitarian intervention”
     Violation of arms treaties
     Other international meddling
     (Don’t forget the information doctrine!)
NEWS ON MILITARY REFORM
 From Jane’s
   Russia has no more Photo Spy Satellites
   Russia’s Arms Bazaar
       China and India, Iran
   Shanghai Five
   Putin Reinvents the KGB
   Russian Military Reform: mass media control and information
   security (!)
   Paras Flying High
   Putin Wields his Scalpel
   Putin Appointments Aim to Bolster Armed Forces Reform
   Putin to Cut Russia’s Regular Armed Forces by a Third
CIVIL-MILTARY RELATIONS REVISITED

 It’s bad in the military
 Why so quiet?
   Kim Zisk’s Argument
     Exit or Voice
     Or …

   So why do they stay?
   So why do they stay quiet?
DISCUSSION
 Where should Russia go from here?
 National Interest?