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					     WMD Terrorism: Risks & Responses




Stephen M. Maurer
Science Policy PP190-01/PP290-01
April 13, 2006
                          Introduction


Terrorism
     Intent
     Capability
CBRN Technology
     (Mostly B and R)
Viewpoints
     Barriers to Entry
     Social Psychology
     Cost-Benefit
Necessary Conversations
                                 Terrorism


Overview
    Intent
           Rational Goals
           The Case for Mass Violence
           The Case for WMD

    Capabilities
    Necessary Conversations
         Terrorism




Intent
                                     Terrorism


The Rational Actor Hypothesis

Thanatos & Romanticism
     The Socialists Patients Collective (1975)
     Cult and Suicide Analogies
     Youth
                                          Terrorism

Traditional Rationales for Terrorists:
     “No Alternative”
     Revolution – Destroying and Replacing the State
     Destroying the Economy
     Publicity & Propaganda
     Obtaining Concessions/Forcing Withdrawal
     Provoking a Crackdown
     Catalyzing Diplomacy/Foreign Intervention
     Supporting Major Military Operations
     Credibility
     Blocking Political Solutions
     Money
     Holding Territory
                                    Terrorism
Traditional Rationales for Sponsors
     Large vs. Small Sponsors
     Benefits:
           A Cheap Foreign Policy Capability
           Increases Nuisance Value
                 But Only if Sponsor Can Renounce.
     Drawbacks:
           Difficult to Terminate
           Miscalculation (El Dorado Canyon)
           Isolation
           Inconsistent With WMD
                                    Terrorism



Mass Violence
    Libyan Arab Airlines Flight 114 (February 1973)
    Operation Mt. Carmel (July 21, 1973)
    September 11

Is Mass Violence a Sensible Strategy?
                             Terrorism
Deaths in “Total Wars.”

       Napoleonic Wars
             France (5%)
       American Civil War
             North (1.4%)
             South (2%)
       World War I
             France (4.4%)
             German (3%)
       World War II
             Germany (6%)
             Japan (2.7%)
             USSR (18%)
                                Terrorism
Novel Weapons
    Western Front (1914)
    US and England (1930s)
    London (1940)
    Berlin (1944)
    Korea (1950)
    Baghdad (2005)

Lessons:
    People are Resilient
    Modern State is Resilient
    WMD
               Terrorism




Capabilities
                            Terrorism

Probabilities of Failure
     Lone Actors vs. Complexity
     Technology
     Tradecraft
     Getting People to Die
     Getting People to Kill
Simple Attacks
     Suicide Bombers (25% failure rate)
Complex Attacks
     Israeli “Wrath of God” Teams
     Nazi Saboteurs
                                            Terrorism

9/11 Conspiracy
Mid-1999:         KSM gives Hazmi, Abu Bara, and Khallad
                  basic training in English phrases, reading
                  phone books, renting apartments, etc.

1999:             Yemeni citizens Khallad and Abu Barra
                  cannot obtain visas and are unable to learn
                  English.

Mid-1999          Yemeni police arrest Khallad by mistake as
                  part of the Cole investigation. Khallad’s
                  father gets him released.

January 2000      Hazmi and Mihdar enter the US. KSM
                  relaxes security so that they can receive
                  support from San Diego Mosque.
                                          Terrorism
9/11 Conspiracy
March 2000        Mihdar starts “ranting and raving” over a
                  security deposit.

May 2000:         Hazmi and Mihdar give up trying to learn
                  English. Flight school becomes impossible.

June 2000:        Mihdar goes AWOL and tells his cousin that
                  Bin Laden is planning five attacks in the US.
                  Bin Laden prevents KSM from firing him.

June 2000         Hazmi is bored in Mihdar’s absence and asks
                  KSM for permission to search for a wife on
                  the Internet. He tells a coworker that that he
                  will “become famous.”
                                           Terrorism
9/11 Conspiracy
May 2000          Atta, el Shehhi and Jarrah complete flight
                  training. – January 2001 Atta is a rude and
                  abusive student. Fourth Hamburg plotter fails
                  to obtain entry visa.

October 2000      KSM sends Moussaoui to Malaysia for flight
                  training, but Moussaoui decides to work on a
                  different plot instead. KSM recalls
                  Moussaoui, and sends him to the US for flight
                  training. Interviewed by FBI on August 15
                  2001 and arrested on immigration charges
                  the following day.
2000-2001:         Nine “muscle hijackers” fail to obtain travel
                  documents, back out, or are removed by the
                  leadership. Pilot hijackers meet muscle
                  hijackers and help them rent apartments, etc.
                                           Terrorism


9/11 Conspiracy
Summer 2001       Atta, el Shehhi, al Hamzi,
                  Jarrah, and Hanjour make at
                  least six trips to Las Vegas.

Sept. 11, 2001:   Hanjour, Mihdar and one
                  muscle hijacker are
                  flagged by CAPPS. Fourth
                  airliner hijacking fails.
                                  Terrorism

Can Terrorism Afford Failure?
     Budget
     Morale: Messianic Expectations,
          Example, and Futility.

Necessary Conversations (I)
     Neither Peace Nor War
           Talking about Casualties
           Low Probability, High Consequence Events
           Business as Usual: Pork Barrel, Bioshield
WMD
               WMD


Chemical
Biological
Radiological
Nuclear
                              Nuclear

Nuclear Weapons
    Atom Bombs vs. H-Bombs.
    Blast, Flash, Fallout.
Doing Policy:                    Nuclear
     Barriers to Entry
          “The Secret of the Atomic Bomb”
          The Plutonium Route
          The Enriched Uranium Route
          A Surprisingly Durable Barrier
     No Go Theorems?
          Approximately true for Nuclear…

A Quick Way Home?
     Clever Technologies
     State Sponsors
     Theft
                          Radiological


Overview
   Introduction
   Physics + Health Physics
   Estimating the Damage
   Would the Public Be Sensible?
   Necessary Conversations
                          Radiological


Introduction
    “Radiological Dispersion Devices”
    Very Low Barriers to Entry
    Weapons of Mass Disruption?
                                 Radiological

An Easy Physics Problem:
Curies  Rads
1400 Curies Cesium-137
   @ 1km2: 140 REMs/yr.
   @10km 2: 13 REMs/yr

           Richard Muller, “The Dirty Bomb Distraction,
           Technology Review
           http://muller.lbl.gov/TRessays/29-Dirty_Bombs.htm
Curies Rads                                 Radiological
(Computer)

                                                        1 REM



                                                         0.1 REM




                                                         0.01 REM




             Brooke Buddemeier, “Misuse of Radioactive Material: First
             Responder Considerations” (2003), http://www-
             cms.llnl.gov/seaborginstitute/training/radiological_response
             _2.pdf
                     Radiological


Health Physics: Benchmarks
0.6 REM/year    Denver
0.5 REM/year    Radiation Workers
                                                             Radiological
Health Physics
Rads  Expected Excess Cancers
 Late (stochastic) effects follow a
 linear or linear quadratic relationship
             100
                                                    Dose (in Rads)
  Cancer Induction Rate




                          80                      =
                          60
                                                        2,400
                          40

                          20                          (Over 30 years)
                               rem   2400
                                            Courtesy: Christine Hartmann-Siantar, LLNL
           Radiological
Caveat: 20 REM = ???




 Ottawa U – International Center
 For Low-Dose Radiation Research
 (Jan. 2002)
                              Radiological

One Year, No Evacuation:

    1km2 1000 people @ 140 REMs
                    = 60 deaths
                    cf. Sept. 11

    10km2: 10,000 people @ 13 REMs
                    = 60 deaths
                    cf. Fallon Cancer Cluster
                          Radiological
What Will It Cost?
    Direct (Negligible)
    Evacuation
    Clean Up
                          Radiological
Evacuation
    Richardson et al.
        One week/400,000 people
        $4.1 billion estimate

Benefit @ EPA $6.1m/life standard:
         ~ 100 deaths ~ $600m
                             Radiological

CleanUp

Scenario 1) Formal Plans:   0.1 REM/year
                            National
                            Response
                            Plan Protective
                            Action Guide

Scenario 2) Public Panic
                                 Radiological

Would the Public Really Panic?
    Imaginability + Memorability
    Dread + Familiarity
    (Banning the Threat is Not an Option)
    Manner of Death

Examples:
    Nuclear Weapons, Radon, Denver,
          WWII Bombing
                            Radiological

Scenario 3: Elite Panic.
    ABC and NBC:
        “Several hundred thousand
        dollars...”

    Hart Senate Office Building
         “More than $23 million…”

    Brentwood Post Office
        “More than $100 million…”
                             Radiological

Necessary Conversations (II)
    The Response is The Damage.
    Discussing Dirty Bombs Ex Ante.

Challenges
    Nuclear Power Politics
    Cheap Shots and “Everyone Knows…”
    A Tipping Dynamic?
                          Chemical

World War I
World War II
Barriers: A Very Industrialized Weapon
(Bhopal)
                       Biological


Overview
   History
   Barriers to Entry
   Synthetic Biology
                        Biological


History
    Between the Wars
    World War II
    The Poor Man’s Atomic Bomb?
    Classical Programs
    The Soviet Program
                               Biological

Barriers to Entry
    Identifying Organisms
    Obtaining Pathogen Cultures
    Hardiness, Virulence, Antibiotic Resistance
    Manufacturing & Safety
    Delivery
         Wet Agent
         Dry Agent
         Contagious Disease
                     Biological




Not Just Biology
Knowledge More Than Equipment
                               Biological

Synthetic Biology
    Identifying Organisms
    Obtaining Pathogen Cultures
    Hardiness, Virulence, Antibiotic Resistance
    Manufacturing & Safety
    Delivery
         Wet Agent
         Dry Agent
         Contagious Disease
                           Biological


Synthetic Biology
Self-Governance
    Screening
    Experiments of Concern
    Reporting Dangerous Behavior
    Collecting Safety/Security Knowledge
    Invest in New Technologies
                            Biological


Necessary Conversations (III)
Prognosis
    Short-Run
    Long-Run: Not Like the A-Bomb?
     WMD Terrorism: Risks & Responses




Stephen M. Maurer
Science Policy PP190-01/PP290-01
April 13, 2006

				
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