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									ABOUT RCLCO (Robert Charles Lesser & Co.)
Shyam Kannan, Vice President, RCLCO | July 19, 2010
ABOUT OUR FIRM
SERVICES
 Metropolitan Growth
  Trends Analysis              RCLCO is the nation’s leading
 Market and Feasibility
  Studies
                               independent land use and real
 Fiscal/Economic Impact
  Analysis
                               estate economics firm.
 Economic Development
  and Revitalization
 Value Capture                We have been providing market
  Forecasting/Transit-
  Oriented Premium Analysis    intelligence, strategy, and
 Affordable/Workforce
  Housing                      implementation solutions
 Public/Private Partnership
  Structuring                  since 1967.
 Financing for Capital and
  Operating Expenses
 Smart Code Review



                                       1
MARKETS DON’T ALWAYS RESPOND TO POLICY
HARNESSING MARKET FORCES IMPROVES OUTCOMES
 Possible Reasons                  HARNESSING TRENDS AND
                                   OPPORTUNITIES
 1.   Policy-Market Mismatch       INCREASED DEMAND FOR URBANITY

 2.   Timing of Real Estate
      Cycle
                                   HARNESSING TRENDS AND
 3.   Consumer Preferences         OPPORTUNITIES
                                   TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT
 4.   Cost Implications

 5.   Regulatory Complexity—
                                   HARNESSING TRENDS AND
      Closing the Gap
                                   OPPORTUNITIES
                                   SUSTAINABILITY MATTERS MORE THAN
 6.   Aligning policy and          EVER
      incentives to produce
      results
                                   HARNESSING TRENDS AND
                                   OPPORTUNITIES
                                   PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS




                               2
OUR KNOWLEDGE

                Gen Y
METROPOLITAN GROWTH TRENDS
CORE TYPOLOGIES--CHARLESTON, SC
 RCLCO RESEARCH
 TRANSIT-READY REGIONS
                                                                        4.0



                                                                        3.5

                                                                                                         San Francisco

                                                                                                                                                                             Philadelphia

                                                                        3.0


                                                                                                  Detroit
                                                                                                                         •     Availability of land & appropriate zoning
                                                                                                                         •     Presence of existing & planned transit
 Fair Share Capture




                                                                        2.5

                                                                                                                         •     Increasing commuting time
                                                                        2.0                                              •     Higher-density housing as % of total
                                                                                                                         •     Public transit ridership                                                                                                  Chicago




                                                                        1.5
                                                                                                               Baltimore

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Washington, D.C.
                                                                                                                   Minneapolis                                                                                                                                     Los Angeles
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Miami

                                                                                                  Seattle
                                                                     1.0        Portland Denver                          Tampa

                      -10,000                  0                10,000              20,000               30,000                40,000               50,000              60,000                 70,000    80,000              90,000             100,000              110,000              120,000
                                                                                                     San Diegoa
                                                                                    Sacramento            Las Vegas
                                                                                                                                                                     Houston          Dallas
                                                                                                                                             Atlanta
                                                                        0.5                                                   Phoenix
                                                                                      Orlando

                                                                                                            Riverside



                                                                        0.0

                                                                                                                                    Total Potential Demand (Units)
                      New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area                  Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area                     Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area
  Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area                                             Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area                          Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area
SOURCE: RCLCO
  Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area                                            Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area                           Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area
                      Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan Statistical Area                                      Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area                       San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
                      Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area                                Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area                              Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area
                      Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area                             San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area                        St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area
                      Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area                                                Pittsburgh, PA Metropolitan Statistical Area                                           Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area
                      Denver-Aurora, CO Metropolitan Statistical Area
                      Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA Metropolitan Statistical Area
                                                                                                                                                               5
                                                                                                                        Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area
                                                                                                                        Kansas City, MO-KS Metropolitan Statistical Area
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN Metropolitan Statistical Area
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
                      San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area                                  San Antonio, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area                                          Orlando-Kissimmee, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area
                      Columbus, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area                                                        Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA Metropolitan Statistical Area                 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC Metropolitan Statistical Area
DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT + PREFERENCE SHIFT =
HIGHER DEMAND FOR DENSITY

                                                4,000,000
       # of Units in Structures with 5+ Units




                                                3,500,000

                                                3,000,000

                                                2,500,000

                                                2,000,000                                                                        140%
                                                1,500,000

                                                1,000,000

                                                 500,000

                                                       0
                                                       2006    2007      2008       2009      2010      2011      2012      2013        2014

                                                              RCLCO Demand, based on expected increased preference for density
                                                              Demand based on current home type by age and household size
SOURCE: RCLCO consumer research


                                                                                       6
 RCLCO RESEARCH
 DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS DRIVING DENSITY
 Projected Total Population Growth Rate by Age
 2010–2020

   20 - 24                         -200,000

   25 - 29     Apartments and Condos:                             1,600,000
               Entry-Level and
   30 - 34                                                                    2,600,000
               First Move-Up Condos, TH
   35 - 39     First time SFD                            1,000,000

   40 - 44         -1,500,000

   45 - 49    -1,900,000

   50 - 54                       -400,000
                                                            `
   55 - 59                                                                                3,500,000
              Luxury townhomes and condos
   60 - 64    Luxury single family                                                                           5,000,000
              TND and clustered, smaller lot
   65 - 69    single family                                                                                      5,400,000

   70 - 74                                                                                       4,100,000
              Senior Living
   75 - 79                                                       1,500,009

   80 - 84                                     170,000

      85+                                                      1,300,000
SOURCE:   U.S. Census Bureau


                                                           7
RCLCO RESEARCH
PAYING FOR TOD—VALUE CREATION

                             Identifying metropolitan
                              growth nodes and
                              opportunities

                             Analyzing the market
                              potential and fiscal impact of
                              transit and related
                              development

                             Engaging property owners in
                              value capture opportunities

                             Priming the pump for
                              catalytic development at and
                              above market rates

                             Using real estate
                              development as a vehicle to
                              fund transit infrastructure
WORKFORCE FAMILIES PRICED OUT OF MAJOR
EMPLOYMENT CENTERS IN DC METRO AREA




                    9
SEGMENTING THE GREEN MARKET
THREE PRIMARY GREEN RENTER GROUPS
Green-favorable segments comprise as             Different age groups comprised of different
much as 23% of the overall market-rate or        mixes of the green-favorable segments…
better rental apartment market…                      Green Segment Propensity by Age
    Overall Market Composition




                                            10
INNOVATION LEADS TO IMPLEMENTATION
MAJOR INITIATIVES FUELED BY RCLCO LEADERSHIP




   TORONTO WATERFRONT PLAN
   Toronto, ON
REPRESENTATIVE TOD WORK
Project
CHARLOTTE LRT STATION AREA ANALYSES – FOUR
CORRIDORS
Charlotte, North Carolina
• Identified development potential for each station area along four
  corridors planned for LRT, BRT, and potential commuter rail
• Evaluated land use intensities and potential development timing for
  station areas

HOUSTON INTERMODAL TRANSIT FACILITY
Houston, Texas
• Worked with the Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County
  (Houston Metro) and Ehrenkrantz, Eckstut & Kuhn Architects (EEK)
• Envisioned and tested the market and financial feasibility of the
  development program for the future hub of Houston transit
• Helped create a deal structure that would be beneficial to all, taking
  into account available public financing mechanisms and the
  qualitative needs of each of the parties

                                                  12
NATIONAL REPRESENTATIVE TOD WORK
Project
CITY OF ATLANTA AND THE METROPOLITAN ATLANTA RAPID
TRANSIT AUTHORITY (MARTA)
Atlanta, Georgia
• Worked for the City of Atlanta and MARTA
• Created an economic, land use and development plan for the area
  around the Lindbergh MARTA station
• Conducted economic analysis, examining economic conditions and
  Lindbergh’s role relative to economic growth trends

DC STREETCAR
Washington, D.C
• Projected the outcome of implementing a streetcar by analyzing the
  effects of transit investment to the New York Avenue Metro Station
  in D.C, the Portland, OR Streetcar, and the Seattle, WA Streetcar
• Studied economic growth in Portland, OR and Seattle, WA, and
  applied property value percentage increases to properties along the
  proposed H Street streetcar corridor in Washington, D.C.


                                               13
REPRESENTATIVE TOD WORK
Project
ORLANDO AND TAMPA REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT CENTERS
ANALYSIS
“CONNECTING FOR GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS PROJECT”
Central Florida
• Completed a Metro Center analysis for all of Central Florida
• Understood regional growth trends and how they impact the location
  of future jobs
• Analyzed the impact of transit on potential future Metro Cores

INTERNATIONAL CORPORATE PARK AND INNOVATION WAY
EAST
Orange County, Florida
• Studied impact of future commuter, light rail, and BRT
• Quantified potential impact of transit
• Programmed communities based upon future transit opportunities
• Familiar with DOT requirements for TOD and their impact
• Considered the impact of an MMTD on the projects

                                                14
CONTACT US
    WASHINGTON, DC (HQ)
    7200 Wisconsin Avenue, 7th Floor          Shyam Kannan
    Bethesda, MD 20814                        Vice President, Consulting
    (240) 644-1300                            Director of Research and
                                              Development
    ATLANTA                                   240-644-1307
    1168 Howell Mill Rd Suite F               skannan@rclco.com
    Atlanta, GA 30318
    (404) 365-9501

    LOS ANGELES
    1880 Century Park East, Suite 250   WWW.RCLCO.COM
    Los Angeles, CA 90067
    (310) 914-1800

    AUSTIN
    106 E. Sixth Street
    Suite 900
    Austin, TX 78701
    (512) 215-3156 Phone

    ORLANDO
    964 Lake Baldwin Lane
    Suite 100
    Orlando, FL 32814
    (407) 515-6592

								
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