2005 Integrated Electricity Plan Modelling Approach
2005 IEP Provincial IEP Committee Meeting #4 May 31/June 1, 2005
IEP Road Map
Part 2
Key Input Assumptions
Part 4 Part 1
Planning Objectives and Principles
Supply/Demand Outlook
Part 5
Part 6
Portfolio Development and Analysis
Action Plan
Resource Options
Part 3
Stakeholder & First Nations Engagement
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 2
Demand Supply Outlook - Energy
85,000 75,000 65,000 Firm Energy (GWh)__ 55,000 45,000 35,000 25,000 15,000 5,000
F2 00 6 F2 00 7 F2 00 8 F2 00 9 F2 01 0 F2 01 1 F2 01 2 F2 01 3 F2 01 4 F2 01 5 F2 01 6 F2 01 7 F2 01 8 F2 01 9 F2 02 0 F2 02 1 F2 02 2 F2 02 3 F2 02 4 F2 02 5
Heritage Energy Existing Purchase Contracts Revelstoke Unit 5 2004 Forecast before Demand Side Management 2004 Forecast after Energy Efficiency and Load Displacement Resource Smart Duke Point Power F2006 and F2007 Calls 2004 Forecast after Energy Efficiency
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 3
Demand Supply Outlook - Capacity
17,000 Peak Demand & Dependable Capacity Supply (MW) 15,000
13,000
11,000
9,000
7,000
5,000
02 3
00 6
02 4
02 0
01 1
01 0
02 1
00 7
01 2
01 6
00 8
01 3
01 7
00 9
01 4
01 5
01 8
01 9
02 2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
Heritage Hydroelectric Heritage Thermal Duke Point Power F2006 and F2007 Calls 2004 Forecast after Energy Efficiency
F2
F2
Existing Purchase Contracts Resource Smart Revelstoke Unit 5 2004 Forecast before Demand Side Management 2004 Forecast after Energy Efficiency and Load Displacement
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 4
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
02 5
Resource Options
Generic Bundles
Energy Supply Curves for Generic Bundles
175 150
Unit Energy Cost ($/MWh)
Small and Micro Hydro 125 100 75 50 25 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 Resource availability of coal and natural gas is not a constraint for generation within the province during the planning period. Medium Hydro Large Hydro Power Smart Natural Gas (Resource Smart) Natural Gas Coal Wind Geothermal Biomass
Average Annual Energy (GWh)
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 5
Modelling Approach
Portfolio Evaluation Portfolio Construction Portfolio Results
Key Inputs Demand Existing Supply Resource Options Transmission Portfolios
MAPA
Multi-Attribute Portfolio Analysis
Portfolio 3E Portfolio 3D Portfolio 3C Portfolio 3B Portfolio
Planning Assumptions Time frame Planning Criteria
HYSIM
BC Hydro System Simulation Model
Financial Assumptions
Results Summary
Energy Market Scenarios
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 6
Portfolio Analysis Models
-Manually schedule new resources -Pulls attribute information from resource options database - Tracks attributes for portfolios - receives dispatch information from Hysim - calculates the portfolio cost (fixed charges plus dispatch cost) - dispatches the supply resources, and determines expected energy generation including imports/exports
MAPA – multi
attribute portfolio analysis
Hysim – hydrological
system simulation model
Order of dispatch: • Take or pay contracts (fixed resources) • Heritage hydro without storage • Heritage hydro with storage, thermal, or imports
Page 7
May 31/June 1, 2005
MAPA - Portfolio Development
Schedule new resources 1) to meet demand (energy and capacity) 2) to meet objective of portfolio 3) based on least cost
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 8
MAPA - Scheduling Resources
Portfolios: MAPA IEP04 2004-03-05.xls w ith HysimOutput_NEB Price 2004-02-24.xls - 05 Mar 2004 Mata ID Project Nam e 060102 0 Existing yymm-yymm Existing Hydro HtgRes PSM-2b New BCH Hydro REV5 REV6 MCA5 MCA6 Site-C Sub-Total New BCH Therm al - Kelly Lake Gas (I) GF-CCGT-500 GF-CCGT-500 GF-CCGT-500 GF-CCGT-250 GF-CCGT-250 SH-L40-LM SH-40-NC Greenfield Combined Cycle Gas Turbine - 500 MW Greenfield Combined Cycle Gas Turbine - 500 MW Greenfield Combined Cycle Gas Turbine - 500 MW Greenfield Combined Cycle Gas Turbine - 250 MW Greenfield Combined Cycle Gas Turbine - 250 MW Small Hydro projects all less than $40/MWh Small Hydro projects betw een $40/MWh and $50/MWh n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1204-9912 1204-9912 1604-9912 1204-9912 1204-9912 Revelstoke New Unit 5 Revelstoke New Unit 6 Mica New Unit 5 Mica New Unit 6 Peace River Site C n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1410-9912 1910-9912 1810-9912 2210-9912 1210-9912 1710-9912 1410-9912 1910-9912 0810-9912 1610-9912 1410-9912 1910-9912 BCH Heritage excl. 155MW Ft.Nelson Pow er Smart 2 n.a. n.a. 0001-9912 0204-2403 0001-9912 0204-2403 0001-9912 0204-2403 P2f PS 2, CFT, Res Smart, Committed Green/CBG 1 P4a Green - Least Cost 1 BU1 3 Units for Dependable Capacity 1
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 9
MAPA – Schedule of new additions
72,500
Non-Firm Imports Energy Balancing Resource (Green)
70,000
Fixed Cost Resource
67,500
250 MW Coal 500 MW Coal Vancouver Island 250 MW CCGT Kelly Lake 250 MW CCGT Kelly Lake 500 MW CCGT
65,000
Firm Energy Capability (GWh)
62,500
60,000
57,500
Load Centre 250 MW CCGT
55,000
Load Centre 500 MW CCGT Downstream Benefits Burrard Repower Site C Green
52,500
50,000
47,500
45,000
Fiscal Year
(Year Ending March 31)
Resource Smart including Revelstoke and Mica VI Call for Tenders Existing Supply Peak Load with Power Smart
2005-07-06May 31/June 1, 2005
20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23
Page 10
MAPA - Portfolio Development
Peak Load with Power Smart Existing Supply Revelstoke Unit 5 Mica Unit 5 Revelstoke Unit 6 Mica Unit 6 Site C Resource Smart Green Load Centre 250 MW CCGT Load Centre 500 MW CCGT Kelly Lake 250 MW CCGT Kelly Lake 500 MW CCGT Vancouver Island 250 MW CCGT Burrard Repower VI Call for Tenders 250 MW Coal 500 MW Coal Fixed Cost Resource Downstream Benefits Energy Balancing Resource (Green) Non-Firm Imports 2010 2011 56,910 57,508 56,855 56,855 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 553 625 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,200 1,200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fiscal Year (year ending March 31) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 58,104 58,987 59,854 60,768 61,692 62,579 63,495 56,855 56,833 56,724 53,720 50,738 50,738 50,738 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 0 25 50 50 50 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,285 4,570 4,570 4,570 671 696 696 696 696 696 696 0 204 1,643 2,999 4,406 5,267 7,234 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 11
MAPA – Tracks attributes
GHG & Local Emissions
ImpGHG CO2 GHG Imports (1000 tonnes) GHG Cost (NPV $million) GHG Local (1000 tonnes) GHG Cost ( NPV $million) NOx (tonnes) VOC (tonnes) SOx (tonnes) CO (tonnes) PM (tonnes) 10-11 3919 39 814 8 96 0 4 0 38 11-12 4041 40 878 9 108 0 4 0 42 12-13 4116 41 1001 10 131 0 5 0 49 13-14 4012 40 1116 11 152 0 6 0 55 14-15 3882 39 838 8 101 0 4 0 40 15-16 3138 31 606 6 57 0 3 0 27
NOx VOC Sox Co PM
Footprint
Reservoir, access roads, right-of-ways Transmissions right-of-ways 0 0 0 0 17 0 373 0 3468 0 14569 628
Rate Impact
Total Revenue Requirements Averaged in Total Rate Rate Change from 2003/04 Rate Time weighted Rates ($/Mwh) ref to 2003/04 Time Weighted Average Rate Change 2657.3 2676.2 2709.2 2756.6 2839.1 2840.2 $ 51.044 $ 50.879 $ 50.736 $ 50.876 $ 51.610 $ 50.857 2.09% 1.76% 1.47% 1.75% 3.22% 1.71% $ 50.462 $ 50.500 $ 50.519 $ 50.544 $ 50.612 $ 50.626 0.92% 1.00% 1.04% 1.09% 1.22% 1.25%
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 12
Hysim – Dispatch of resources
Portfolio BGS3, Phased Shutdown
(6% Discount Rate) NEB Gas Prices
10/11 10-11 57549 35845 12028 405 0 1774 1225 625 4235 1200 0 195 0 7838 7821 57,532 11/12 11-12 58137 35899 12027 527 0 1775 1225 671 4235 1200 0 178 0 8081 7681 57,737 12/13 12-13 59016 35958 12028 759 0 1777 1225 696 4213 1200 0 400 0 8231 7471 58,256 13/14 13-14 59904 35671 12028 978 0 1777 1225 696 4104 1200 0 1960 0 8024 7759 59,639 14/15 14-15 60829 36441 12026 450 0 1776 1225 696 4083 1200 0 3334 0 7764 8166 61,231 15/16 15-16 61832 39561 12029 0 0 1772 1225 696 4083 1200 0 4747 0 6275 9756 65,313
Summary Sheet
Dispatch (GWh)
Total Generation BCH Large Hydro HY00 Other Hydro & small BCH HY0H Burrard BU00b Burrard Repower / DSB DSB ICG ICP Alcan Alcan ResourceSmaResource Smart GreenIPPs IPP+CBG VI CFT VI CFT CCGT CCGTF Others OtherGen Deficit Deficit Import TotImp Export TotExp
Load
BC Generation
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 13
MAPA – calculates portfolio cost
Corporate Cost ($million)
TotImp$ TotExp$ Import Cost Export Income Net Trade Cost Generation Capital Costs New Capital Fixed Costs (existing resources): Large Hydro (BCH+Aquila) Small/Med Hydro (IPP) Burrard Other thermal and VI CFT Green Sub-total Fixed Costs (new resources): New Large Hydro Resource Smart Natural Gas Green Variable Costs: Existing Hydro Rental ExeHydro$ Burrard BU00b New CCGT New CCGTs Total Gen. Cost 10-11 365 410 -45 11-12 393 422 -29 12-13 423 437 -13 13-14 427 463 -36 14-15 413 485 -72 15-16 331 579 -249 16-17 319 600 -282 17-18 304 623 -319
609 84.6 13.4 15.6 14.2 186.0 344.3 0 1 78 0 231 24 0 1360
428 85.2 13.3 15.6 14.1 184.2 341.5 0 1 78 0 231 32 0 1185
168 85.9 13.1 15.6 13.9 181.7 338.0 0 2 78 0 232 45 0 942
106 86.6 13.0 15.6 11.4 176.6 329.6 0 2 78 0 230 58 0 956
18 87.2 12.9 9.1 10.2 173.5 318.0 6 2 78 0 224 25 0 917
20 87.9 12.7 0.0 10.1 171.5 306.1 11 2 78 47 229 0 0 1004
57 88.6 12.6 0.0 10.0 169.9 303.8 11 2 78 47 232 0 0 1108
56 89.3 12.5 0.0 9.9 166.1 299.3 11 2 78 47 230 0 0 1278
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 14
Results from 2004 IEP
5,000 4,800
4,600
Gas & Electricity Price Forecast High NEB Alt HR EIA Confer
4,400
NPV ($Milions)
4,200
4,000
3,800
3,600
3,400
3,200
3,000
P2 P3a P3b BASE CASE Power Smart 3 - Power Smart 3 & 4 - Upper Natural Gas at Likely Achievable Remote Location Achievable P4a Green P4b Diverse Green P5 Natural Gas at Load Centre P6 Coal P7 Canadian Entitlement to Downstream Benefits P8 Large Hydro
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 15
80,000
Results from 2004 IEP
70,000
Gas & Electricity Price Forecast
Local GHG Emissions (1000 tonnes) Cumulative over 20 years
60,000
50,000
Confer EIA NEB High Alt HR
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
P2 P3a P3b BASE CASE Power Smart 3 - Power Smart 3 & Natural Gas at Likely 4 - Upper Remote Location Achievable Achievable P4a Green P4b Diverse Green P5 Natural Gas at Load Centre P6 Coal P7 Canadian Entitlement to Downstream Benefits P8 Large Hydro
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 16
Results from 2004 IEP
5,000
Net Present Value including Greenhouse Gas Cost ($10/tonne of GHG) Net Present Value excluding Greenhouse Gas Cost
4,800
4,600
4,400
NPV ($Millions)
4,200
4,000
3,800
3,600
3,400
3,200
3,000
P2 P3a P3b BASE CASE Power Smart 3 - Power Smart 3 & Natural Gas at Likely Achievable 4 - Upper Remote Location Achievable P4a Green P4b Diverse Green P5 Natural Gas at Load Centre P6 Coal P7 Canadian Entitlement to Downstream Benefits P8 Large Hydro
May 31/June 1, 2005
Page 17
4,400
Results from 2004 IEP
+40% Capital Cost
4,200
4,000
NPV ($Millions)
3,800
3,600
+20% Capital Cost +20% Capital Cost -10% Capital Cost
Power Smart 3 (+20% Capital Cost), Power Smart 4 (+40% Capital Cost)
+20% Capital Cost -10% Capital Cost P4a* $55/MWh +20% Capital Cost
+20% Capital Cost
3,400
-10% Capital Cost -10% Capital Cost -10% Capital Cost
-10% Capital Cost -10% Capital Cost
3,200
3,000
P2 BASE CASE Natural Gas at Remote Location P3a P3b Power Smart 3 - Likely Power Smart 3 & 4 Achievable Upper Achievable P4a Green P5 Natural Gas at Load Centre P6 Coal P8 Large Hydro
May 31/June 1, 2005
Results from 2004 IEP
16,000
14,000
Short Term (person-years)
Long Term (full time equivalent jobs)
12,000
10,000
Workforce
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
P2 P3a P3b BASE CASE Power Smart 3 - Power Smart 3 & Natural Gas at Likely Achievable 4 - Upper Remote Location Achievable P4a Green P4b Diverse Green P5 Natural Gas at Load Centre P6 Coal P7 Canadian Entitlement to Downstream Benefits P8 Large Hydro
May 31/June 1, 2005
Significant Difference
• What is a significant difference between portfolios for different attributes?
– Depends on accuracy of model – Depends on uncertainty of input data – Depends on significance of attribute (forcing affect)
May 31/June 1, 2005
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