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					 Central and Coastal
Lincolnshire Strategic
   Housing Market
     Assessment



   Final report
       October 2007
         CENTRAL & COASTAL LINCOLNSHIRE
    STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT

                                           CONTENTS
FOREWORD                                                          9

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                                 11
         Population                                               11
         Employment and the Economy                               12
         Housing stock                                            13
         The Active Market                                        14
         Affordability                                            15
         Housing Needs                                            16
         Housing Markets                                          17

1        APPROACH                                                 21
         1.1    Background                                        21
         1.2    Purpose and objectives of the study               24
         1.3    Secondary data analysis and literature review     25
         1.4    Stakeholder consultation                          26
         1.5    West Lindsey housing needs survey                 27
         1.6    Gypsy and Traveller survey                        27
         1.7    Report structure                                  28

2        STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENTS                     30
         2.1    Government guidance                               30
         2.2    Housing systems                                   32
         2.3    Assessing the current housing market              33
         2.4    What is housing need?                             36
         2.5    What is unsuitable housing?                       38
         2.6    What is affordability?                            39

3        THE DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CONTEXT                     41
         3.1    Introduction                                      41
         3.2    Demography and household types                    41
         3.3    International migration                           48


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    3.4   Student population                                              49
    3.5   Armed forces                                                    50
    3.6   National and regional economic policy                           51
    3.7   Employment levels and structure                                 54
    3.8   Earnings                                                        58

4   THE HOUSING STOCK                                                    60
    4.1   Introduction                                                    60
    4.2   Dwelling profile                                                60
    4.3   Stock condition                                                 65
    4.4   Shared housing and communal establishments                      73
    4.5   Over-crowding and under occupation                              73

5   THE ACTIVE MARKET                                                    75
    5.1   Owner occupation                                                75
    5.2   Private rented sector                                           88
    5.3   Social housing                                                  91
    5.4   Affordability                                                   98
    5.5   Housing supply                                                 106

6   IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE HOUSING MARKET                           109
    6.1   Macro-economic trends                                          109
    6.2   Demographic change                                             109
    6.3   Migration                                                      112
    6.4   Self-containment                                               115
    6.5   Supply side trends                                             122

7   CURRENT HOUSING NEED                                                 125
    7.1   Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation       125
    7.2   Over-crowding and concealed households                         127
    7.3   Other groups                                                   128
    7.4   Total current housing need (gross per year)                    128

8   FUTURE HOUSING NEED                                                  130
    8.1   New household formation                                        130
    8.2   Newly forming households unable to buy or rent in the market   131
    8.3   Existing households falling into need                          131
    8.4   Total newly arising housing need                               132

9   AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY                                            133
    9.1   Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need            133
    9.2   Surplus stock                                                  134
    9.3   Committed supply of new affordable units                       134



2
         9.4    Units to be taken out of management                       136
         9.5    Total affordable housing stock available                  136
         9.6    Future annual supply of social re-lets (net)              137
         9.7    Future annual supply of intermediate affordable housing   138
         9.8    Future annual supply of affordable housing units          138

10       THE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS OF HOUSEHOLDS IN NEED                   140
         10.1 Previous housing needs assessments                          140
         10.2 Summary of net annual housing need                          142
         10.3 Affordable housing                                          145
         10.4 Discounted sale homes                                       147
         10.5 Shared ownership                                            148
         10.6 Shared equity                                               150
         10.7 Dwelling size                                               151
         10.8 Households requiring market housing                         152
         10.9 Targets                                                     153
         10.10 Future monitoring                                          154

11       HOUSING REQUIREMENTS OF SPECIFIC HOUSEHOLD GROUPS                156
         11.1 Introduction                                                156
         11.2 Older People                                                156
         11.3 Households with specific needs                              163
         11.4 Minority and hard to reach households                       170
         11.5 The housing requirements of rural communities               174
         11.6 Policy responses for rural housing                          177

12       RECOMMENDATIONS                                                  181




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                                                            TABLES
Table 1: Core Outputs......................................................................................................................... 32
Table 2: Process Checklist ................................................................................................................. 32
Table 3: Housing needs assessment model....................................................................................... 38
Table 4: Unsuitable housing ............................................................................................................... 39
Table 5: Summary of demographic and economic data .................................................................... 41
Table 6: Mid-2004-Mid-2005 Population Estimates............................................................................ 43
Table 7: Mid-2003-Mid-2004 Population Estimates............................................................................ 43
Table 8: Mid-2002-Mid-2003 Population Estimates............................................................................ 44
Table 9: Household tenure by district ................................................................................................. 44
Table 10: Household composition by tenure – Coastal HMA %........................................................ 45
Table 11: Household composition by tenure – Central HMA % ......................................................... 46
Table 12: Household residents by sex and age % ............................................................................. 47
Table 13: Ethnic profile of population – Coastal and Central HMA % ................................................ 48
Table 14: NI Number allocations to overseas nationals 2005/06 ....................................................... 48
Table 15: Armed forces personnel...................................................................................................... 51
Table 16: Benefits Data Indicators, Working Age Clients, August 2004 % ........................................ 53
Table 17: Benefits Data Indicators, Working Age Clients, August 2004 % ........................................ 53
Table 18: Homelessness 2004-2005 %.............................................................................................. 54
Table 19: Homelessness 2004-2005 count ........................................................................................ 54
Table 20: Employment and unemployment trends - Coastal % ......................................................... 56
Table 21: Employment and unemployment trends - Central % .......................................................... 57
Table 22: Mean and median annual earnings 2006 ........................................................................... 59
Table 23: Mean annual earnings compared with England 2004 to 2006 ........................................... 59
Table 24: Summary of housing stock datasets .................................................................................. 60
Table 25: Housing stock ..................................................................................................................... 61
Table 26: Dwelling type by tenure....................................................................................................... 62
Table 27: Dwelling type by tenure....................................................................................................... 62
Table 28: Average number of rooms .................................................................................................. 63
Table 29: Unfit dwellings ..................................................................................................................... 66
Table 30: Cost of making fit unfit private sector.................................................................................. 67
Table 31: Non decent dwellings by tenure.......................................................................................... 68
Table 32: Private sector renewal assistance ...................................................................................... 70
Table 33: Dwellings with Category 1 Hazards HHSRS ...................................................................... 71
Table 34: Number of houses in multiple occupation........................................................................... 73
Table 35: Occupancy rating (%) ......................................................................................................... 74
Table 36: Summary of active market datasets ................................................................................... 75
Table 37: Mean house price and five-year change ............................................................................ 79
Table 38: Mean annual house price change Oct–Dec 2002 to Oct–Dec 2006 .................................. 81
Table 39: Average 5-year house price and price ratio change by type in Boston .............................. 86
Table 40: Average 5-year house price and price ratio change by type in East Lindsey .................... 86
Table 41: Average 5-year house price and price ratio change by type in Lincoln.............................. 86
Table 42: Average 5-year house price and price ratio change by type in North Kesteven ................ 87
Table 43: Average 5-year house price and price ratio change by type in West Lindsey ................... 87
Table 44: Entry-level property price .................................................................................................... 88


4
Table 45: Mean private sector rents (£ per month)............................................................................. 90
Table 46: Volume of Right-To-Buy sales ............................................................................................ 92
Table 47: Homelessness acceptances 2005 - 2006........................................................................... 97
Table 48: Required gross income for entry-level mortgage (£) .......................................................... 98
Table 49: Mean house prices compared with mean annual earnings ................................................ 99
Table 50: Lowest quartile house prices compared with mean annual earnings................................. 99
Table 51: Affordability adjustment..................................................................................................... 100
Table 52: Household gross monthly income..................................................................................... 101
Table 53: Household gross monthly income – single income households....................................... 102
Table 54: Household gross monthly income – two income households........................................... 103
Table 55: Boston - Household gross monthly income by tenure (cumulative %) ............................. 104
Table 56: East Lindsey - Household gross monthly income by tenure (cumulative %) ................... 104
Table 57: Lincoln - Household gross monthly income by tenure (cumulative %)............................. 105
Table 58: North Kesteven - Household gross monthly income by tenure (cumulative %) ............... 105
Table 59: West Lindsey - Household gross monthly income by tenure (cumulative %) .................. 106
Table 60: Private sector vacancy and low demand (%) ................................................................... 106
Table 61: Social sector vacancy, low demand and hard to let (%).................................................. 107
Table 62: Volume of sales by property type for period 2001 to 2006 (%) ........................................ 107
Table 63: Turnover by property type October – December 2006 (%) .............................................. 108
Table 64: Household projections to 2029 (thousands) ..................................................................... 110
Table 65: Proportional increase in population projections - dwelling-led versus trend-based ......... 111
Table 66: Projection of population change by age group 2001-26 (%) ............................................ 112
Table 67: Origin of in-migrants (England and Wales) 2005.............................................................. 113
Table 68: Destination of out-migrants (England and Wales) 2005 ................................................... 114
Table 69: Self-containment ............................................................................................................... 117
Table 70: Expected locations of households intending to move....................................................... 118
Table 71: Housing moves of households that moved in the two years previous to 2005 ................ 119
Table 72: Ward level origin and destination matrix 2001 Census .................................................... 120
Table 73: Housing moves of households that moved in the previous two years.............................. 122
Table 74: District Housing Completions 2003-06 ............................................................................. 122
Table 75: Social rented housing completion targets and actuals ..................................................... 123
Table 76: Intermediate housing housing completion targets and actuals – ..................................... 123
Table 77: Summary of data required for current housing need ........................................................ 125
Table 78: Households accepted as homeless and in priority need .................................................. 125
Table 79: Homeless households and in temporary accommodation................................................ 126
Table 80: Social housing let to homeless households in priority need ............................................. 126
Table 81: Overcrowded households (Step 1.2) ................................................................................ 127
Table 82: Households unsuitably housed due to poor condition (Step 1.3) ..................................... 128
Table 83: Current Housing Need (model 1)...................................................................................... 129
Table 84: Current Housing Need (model 2)...................................................................................... 129
Table 85: Summary of data required for future housing need .......................................................... 130
Table 86: Household projections to 2029 (thousands) ..................................................................... 130
Table 87: New household formation (Step 2.1) ................................................................................ 131
Table 88: New household unable to afford housing on open market (Step 2.2) .............................. 131
Table 89: Existing households falling into need (Step 2.3)............................................................... 132
Table 90: Future Housing Need (model 1) ....................................................................................... 132


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Table 91: Summary of data required for affordable housing supply................................................. 133
Table 92: Local authority lettings into own stock .............................................................................. 134
Table 93: Surplus stock .................................................................................................................... 134
Table 94: Breakdown of Actual District Completions 2003-06 ......................................................... 135
Table 95: Breakdown of Actual District Completions 2003-06 ......................................................... 136
Table 96: Total affordable housing stock available........................................................................... 137
Table 97: Annual supply of social re-lets .......................................................................................... 137
Table 98: Future annual supply of affordable housing units............................................................. 139
Table 99: Summary of previous housing need assessments ........................................................... 140
Table 100: Summary of previous backlog, newly arising need and affordable supply..................... 141
Table 101: Mean house price and mean annual earnings change 2004 to 2006 ............................ 142
Table 102: Summary of net annual housing need (model1)............................................................. 143
Table 103: Summary of net annual housing need (model 2)............................................................ 144
Table 104: Estimate of scope for intermediate housing (social rents).............................................. 146
Table 105: Estimate of scope for intermediate housing (private rents) ............................................ 147
Table 106: Housing costs for discounted market housing................................................................ 147
Table 107: Lower quartile earnings compared to income requirements for discounted housing..... 148
Table 108: Housing costs for shared ownership dwelling ................................................................ 149
Table 109: Income for shared ownership compared to median and lower quartile earnings........... 150
Table 110: Housing costs for shared equity ..................................................................................... 151
Table 111: Preference by size – lower quintile households (%)....................................................... 151
Table 112: Preference by size – Housing Register (%).................................................................... 152
Table 113: Comparison of household projections and the requirement for affordable housing....... 153
Table 114: Dwelling targets and affordable housing need ............................................................... 154
Table 115: Population aged 60+ ....................................................................................................... 157
Table 116: Projected change 2006 - 2026........................................................................................ 157
Table 117: Indicators of need within the home ................................................................................. 159
Table 118: Social rented sheltered housing required ....................................................................... 160
Table 119: Private leasehold sheltered housing required ................................................................ 161
Table 120: Registered Care Home – personal care required........................................................... 161
Table 121: Registered Care Home – nursing care required............................................................. 162
Table 122: Households with a person with LLTI............................................................................... 164
Table 123: Mandatory Disabled Facilities Grants ............................................................................. 165
Table 124: Disabled Facilities Grants resources .............................................................................. 165
Table 125: Housing support services ............................................................................................... 168
Table 126: Departures from SP Services for socially excluded........................................................ 173
Table 127: Rural and urban classifications....................................................................................... 176




6
                                                          FIGURES
Figure 1: Students at University of Lincoln 1996-2006 ....................................................................... 50
Figure 2: Distribution of detached dwellings ....................................................................................... 63
Figure 3: Distribution of semi-detached dwellings .............................................................................. 64
Figure 4: Distribution of terraced dwellings......................................................................................... 64
Figure 5: Distribution of flats/apartments ............................................................................................ 65
Figure 6: Distribution of non-decent homes........................................................................................ 69
Figure 7: Distribution of Category 1 hazards ...................................................................................... 72
Figure 8: Spatial distribution of households in owner occupation ...................................................... 76
Figure 9: Spatial distribution of households in owner occupation: Lincoln ......................................... 77
Figure 10: Mean overall house prices October – December 2006 by postcode sector ..................... 78
Figure 11: Mean overall house prices October – December 2006 by postcode sector: Lincoln........ 78
Figure 12: House price change (%): Oct–Dec 2004 to Oct–Dec 2006............................................... 80
Figure 13: House price change Lincoln (%):Oct–Dec 2004 to Oct–Dec 2006 ................................... 80
Figure 14: Quarterly mean price changes Coastal HMA 2001 – 2006 (%) ........................................ 82
Figure 15: Quarterly mean price changes Central HMA 2001 – 2006 (%)......................................... 82
Figure 16: Quarterly mean price Boston 2001 – 2006 (£) .................................................................. 83
Figure 17: Quarterly mean price East Lindsey 2001 – 2006 (£)......................................................... 83
Figure 18: Quarterly mean price Lincoln 2001 – 2006 (£) .................................................................. 84
Figure 19: Quarterly mean price North Kesteven 2001 – 2006 (£) .................................................... 84
Figure 20: Quarterly mean price West Lindsey 2001 – 2006 (£)........................................................ 85
Figure 21: Spatial distribution of households in private rented accommodation ................................ 89
Figure 22: Spatial distribution of households in private rented accommodation ................................ 90
Figure 23: Spatial distribution of second home ownership ................................................................. 91
Figure 24: Right-to-Buy sales Lincoln and North Kesteven................................................................ 93
Figure 25: Spatial distribution of social renting households ............................................................... 93
Figure 26: Spatial distribution of social renting households: Lincoln .................................................. 94
Figure 27: Local authority rents (£) ..................................................................................................... 95
Figure 28: RSL rents (£) ..................................................................................................................... 96
Figure 29: Homeless households ....................................................................................................... 97
Figure 30: Household projections to 2029 ........................................................................................ 110
Figure 31: Draft RSS Total population dwelling-led projections ....................................................... 111
Figure 32: Net migration flows 2005 ................................................................................................. 114
Figure 33: Net migration flows 2003 ................................................................................................. 115
Figure 34: Spatial distribution of rural classification.......................................................................... 177




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8
                                          FOREWORD
The authors are grateful to all the people who have co-operated and contributed to the
Lincolnshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment.


In particular we would like to thank:

             The Project Steering Group –
             o    Sushma Cheesbrough, Charlotte Robinson, Leighton Rowe and Hannah Wyld (City of
                  Lincoln Council)
             o    Andy Fisher and Stuart Horton (Boston Borough Council)
             o    David Cressey and Stephen Priestley (East Lindsey District Council)
             o    Philip Roberts (North Kesteven District Council)
             o    K Martin (South Kesteven District Council)
             o    Anthony Northcote (West Lindsey District Council)
             o    David George (Lincolnshire County Council)
             o    Rachel Taylor (Lincolnshire Race Equality Council)
             o    Dez Tanser (East Midlands Regional Assembly)
             o    Jon Cowdell (Housing Corporation)

             Members of the Gypsy and Travelling communities who gave their time to be
             interviewed

             Residents of West Lindsey who completed postal questionnaires

             Attendees at the stakeholder seminar held on 25th May 2007 and members of the
             Lincolnshire Housing Forum


The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not represent the policies of the
commissioning authorities or any other organisation in the sub-region or region.


The copyright of this report rests in the hands of commissioning authorities.




October 2007




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10
                              EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
                                                POPULATION
     Dwelling-led projections see Lincoln’s population grow significantly more than past growth
     trends might suggest whilst the population growth in East Lindsey is restricted. The
     population of North Kesteven is projected to increase the most to 2026, growing by
     approximately 38,000.

     Much of the population growth in the Eastern sub-area of the East Midlands is due to a
     strong increase in the pensionable age group, especially in rural areas.     All districts will
     experience an increase in the proportion of population over the age of 65.

     East Lindsey has the highest proportion of pensioner households of the five districts (30.5%
     of all households are single or couple pensioner households). The disproportionate size of
     the older population presents and will continue to present significant challenges for the local
     economy and the local housing market.

     Lincoln is a much younger area; it has the highest proportion of younger single households
     (18.0% of all households are single non-pensioner households), and the highest proportion of
     lone parents with children households. Due to the student population, Lincoln has the
     highest proportion of young people household residents, with 8.6% of residents aged 20 to
     24.

     In Lincoln, economic growth combined with a growing university population will serve to
     increase the number and proportion of younger people, meaning that Lincoln will have a
     younger age distribution than the other districts.

     North Kesteven and West Lindsey are more family oriented having the highest proportions
     of households consisting of couples with children. North Kesteven and West Lindsey show
     a trend to continuing high levels of net migration and population increase across the period
     2002-2005, whereas Lincoln shows consistently less. Evidence shows strong movements
     between Lincoln and West Lindsey.

     Boston and Lincoln are the main areas in the HMAs affected by international migration;
     they have recent Eastern European populations, particularly Polish, as well as more
     established Portuguese communities. In 2005/06 46.9% (2,300 out of 4,900) of overseas
     nationals in the HMAs settled in Boston. The next biggest influx was to Lincoln (1,270).


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     In Lincoln 56.7% of these overseas nationals were Polish and in East Lindsey 48.8% were
     Polish.

     Whilst these numbers are significant, particularly in their impact on Boston’s overall
     population, they do not necessarily represent particular housing needs that differ from the
     rest of the population, particularly once these communities become more settled.



                          EMPLOYMENT AND THE ECONOMY
     There are disparities in economic performances and circumstances at local levels across the
     HMAs in Lincolnshire; Lincoln and the A1 corridor has different circumstances than the
     Coastal HMA, as the East coast districts face structural challenges both to economic
     prosperity and quality of life. Stronger growth is projected around Lincoln and along the
     A1 route, and weaker growth in East Lindsey.

     Among the challenges identified across the region, are:

               relative economic peripherality

               low population densities in more remote areas

               reliance on weak labour markets with high levels of casualisation

               significant hidden unemployment in the north and the east

               access and deprivation problems on the coast

               and a strong increase in the pensioner age group

     Pointers of growth include:

               employment level growth rates exceeding the regional average, albeit from a lower
               base

               growth in food processing, packaging and distribution industries especially in
               South Lincolnshire, where increasing numbers of migrant workers contribute to the
               local economy

     There are rising levels of economic activity and rising employment rates among the
     working age population in four of the five districts in the HMAs. This trend is strongest in
     Lincoln and Boston. The exception to this trend for growth in employment is within North
     Kesteven, where during the same period there were falling levels of economic activity
     coupled with high projected rate of population increase. Boston and Lincoln are likely
     drivers of growth in demand in housing. Lincoln City in particular has experienced growth
     with the expansion of the university and student housing. This also raises issues about


12
     “family flight” from those areas affected by a significant growth in the number of student
     households.



                                           HOUSING STOCK
     The national rate of detached housing is 23.0% and for Lincolnshire is 46.0%. In West
     Lindsey, East Lindsey and North Kesteven more than half the housing stock is detached
     properties with North Kesteven having the highest percentage, 54.9%. The rural areas have
     much greater incidence of detached properties with particular concentrations in the
     southeast corner of West Lindsey (Nettleham, Dunholme and Welton) and throughout East
     Lindsey (except along the major coastal settlements).

     There are small concentrations of flats/apartments in an east-west strip across the centre of
     Lincoln (no doubt serving in large part the student market), in Skegness and Mablethorpe
     (holiday homes) and parts of Boston (likely to be serving the casual labour market and/or
     international migrants).

     The higher incidence of detached dwellings impacts upon the higher average number of
     rooms per dwelling: the national average is 5.3, whereas the Lincolnshire average is 5.6.

     With the exception of Lincoln, districts within the Coastal and Central HMAs have
     relatively high proportions of households living in under-occupied properties. 63.8% of
     properties in West Lindsey have two extra rooms for the household sizes occupying them.

     West Lindsey with 4.9% and Boston with 4.8% have the highest levels of unfit dwellings in
     the HMAs. These levels are higher than both the national level of 4.2% and the regional
     level of 4.0%. The properties failing the fitness standard are virtually all located in the
     private sector.

     West Lindsey has the highest proportion of non-decent dwellings with 40.0% failing to meet
     the Decent Homes Standard. These figures compare to the East Midlands figures of 28.1%
     of private sector housing and 34.3% of social housing failing to meet the Decent Homes
     Standard.

     Lincoln has a significant number of HMOs (2,368 or 7.8% of all dwellings). This is more
     than double the national average of 3.0%.




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                                   THE ACTIVE MARKET
     Owner occupation is high in North Kesteven (77.1%) and West Lindsey (75.0%), whereas
     social housing is comparatively highest in Lincoln (22.8%) and Boston (20.0%).             This
     suggests, but does not necessarily indicate, a greater concentration of less affluent
     households in Lincoln.

     In terms of overall mean house prices, North Kesteven is highest at £163,752, almost
     £30,000 higher than the lowest of £133,970 in Lincoln. Both the Central and Coastal
     HMAs have experienced rapid price growth since 2001, higher than that experienced across
     the East Midlands overall. West Lindsey experienced an increase in price well above that
     experienced within the other districts in the Coastal and Central HMAs and across the
     region as a whole within this year.

     At October – December 2006 the ratio of detached dwellings prices to overall mean price
     ranges from between 1.2:1 and 1.5:1 across the Coastal and Central HMAs. Detached
     properties are priced highest in Lincoln relative to the overall mean price.          Detached
     properties dominate property sales across the HMAs (44.0% of sales overall) and
     consequently have a dominant effect on the overall mean price in each area. Proportionally
     though, detached properties have experienced less price growth than the other property
     types and have become less expensive relative to the overall mean price (except in Boston).
     West Lindsey has seen the price of flats/maisonettes grow significantly over the five-year
     period (234.0%), although the sales of flats represent a very small proportion of sales (1.4%).

     North Kesteven has the highest entry-level price (£123,000), followed by East Lindsey
     (£115,000). The three other districts are very close in price ranging from £99,477 to
     £103,000.

     Private renting is highest in East Lindsey (15.5%) and Lincoln (14.0%). The private rented
     sector is serving two distinct markets in the HMAs: the student and overseas in-migrant
     market in Lincoln and the holiday, second home and seasonal workers market in East
     Lindsey. Boston has a comparatively small (9.7%) private rented market, despite the influx
     of large numbers of overseas nationals who are most likely to use private renting as their
     entry-point into the housing market.

     Private rents are a function of the price of market housing, even more so where there is an
     active buy-to-let market. Given historical market conditions, costs are high for households
     requiring private rented homes in the Coastal and Central HMAs. The monthly charge for
     a single bedroom property varies between £236 per month in North Kesteven to £460 per



14
     month in Lincoln, whilst two-bedroom properties vary between £423 in West Lindsey to
     £650 in Boston.

     Figures for 2006 place the average local authority rents in Lincoln and North Kesteven at
     £47.50 and £50.06 below that for the East Midlands as a whole (£50.76) and considerably
     below that for England overall (£57.76), which includes the higher rents found in London
     and the South East.

     RSL rents are significantly higher, with the average in 2006 across the Coastal and Central
     HMAs at £55.90. RSL rents in North Kesteven and Lincoln are significantly higher than
     those in the other HMA districts. The average rents in North Kesteven are comparable
     with that across England as a whole, whilst those in Lincoln are more in line with that
     across the region.



                                            AFFORDABILITY
     Entry-level properties are most affordable in Lincoln where single income households must
     be earning £28,422 gross per annum to afford a mortgage on an entry-level property. Two
     income households must be earning £34,302 per annum. In contrast, single income
     households in North Kesteven need to be earning £35,143 per annum to afford an entry-
     level property priced at £123,000 and two income households need to be earning £42,414.

     When comparing mean and median annual earnings to mean house prices for the Oct-Dec
     quarter 2006, West Lindsey has the greatest difference between mean house prices and
     annual earnings at a ratio of 8.34:1. City of Lincoln ratio is the most favourable at 6.91:1,
     North Kesteven and Boston are very similar at 7.94:1 and 7.95:1 respectively and East
     Lindsey is the second highest at 8.33:1.

     When comparing mean and median annual earnings to the lowest quartile house prices, East
     Lindsey experiences the greatest differential between annual earnings and lowest quartile
     house prices at a ratio of 6.25:1, followed by North Kesteven at 5.96:1, Boston at 5.84:1,
     West Lindsey at 5.37:1 and Lincoln at 5.13:1.

     Based on the most recent housing assessment survey data, the proportion of single and dual
     income households unable to afford entry-level property on the open market is 73.9% in
     West Lindsey, and has been estimated to be 84.7% in East Lindsey, 83.5% in North
     Kesteven, 80.7% in Boston and 67.0% in Lincoln.




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                                        HOUSING NEEDS
     The three main components to estimating the need for affordable housing are: current
     housing need; future housing need and supply of affordable housing units.

     Two methods are presented for estimating the level of current housing need in each of the
     five districts of the Central and Coastal Housing Market areas. The first method looks at
     available data on homeless households in temporary accommodation, overcrowded and
     concealed households and other unsuitably housed households that cannot find in situ
     solutions to their difficulties or cannot afford to move to more suitable property on the open
     market. The second method is to use the Housing Registers in each local authority area.
     There are difficulties with either method in terms of ruling out double counting and
     estimating the proportion of people able to find in situ solutions in the first and the
     exclusion of households in need that do not register on housing lists in the second. On

     balance, Outside would recommend that the housing registers are a better measure of
     current housing need for affordable housing at this time. Whilst the level of current
     housing need by this method is much higher, the pattern of housing need distribution is
     similar to that shown by the first method, with Boston, East Lindsey and City of Lincoln
     having greater levels of current need compared with North Kesteven and West Lindsey, at
     7.1%, 8.8% and 8.9% respectively of all households in each area compared with, 5.7% in
     North Kesteven and 4.7% in West Lindsey.

     Future annual housing need for affordable housing is based on dwelling-led household
     projections in each of the five local authority areas and estimating the proportion that are
     unable to afford access to accommodation on the open market. North Kesteven has the
     highest level of future housing need at 1.4% of the total households in the area, followed by
     1.1% of households in West Lindsey, 1.0% in both East Lindsey and Boston and 0.9% in
     Lincoln.

     The overall annual supply of affordable units as a proportion of total households in each
     local authority area is much higher in Lincoln at 1.8% and Boston at 1.5% than in East and
     West Lindsey at 0.7% and in North Kesteven where supply of affordable housing units is
     only 0.5% of the total households in the district.

     If the Housing Register is used to indicate current housing need, the net annual housing
     need figures for each district show a shortfall across all five districts, greatest in East
     Lindsey with a shortfall of 1,187 (2.0% of all households) and in North Kesteven with a
     shortfall of 836 (1.9% of all households). West Lindsey has the next highest shortfall at 518




16
     (1.4% of all households). Boston’s shortfall at 234 represents 0.9% of all households in the
     district and in Lincoln the shortfall of 289 is the lowest representing 0.7% of all households.

     Because Boston and Lincoln have proportionally greater supply of social housing in their
     areas, the net effect of balancing demand and supply produces proportionally much lower
     housing need figures than in the other districts. Whether the supply of affordable housing
     in these areas is of the right size, type and in the right location in order to effectively meet
     current and future housing need is a key question.

     The new approach to planning for housing set out in PPS3 requires authorities to
     continually monitor trends and activities in housing markets. Monitoring needs to be
     undertaken on a continuous, pro-active basis and linked in with other monitoring
     requirements. By maintaining the model and updating annually, it will be possible to see
     whether an increase in the delivery of affordable housing through firmer and higher targets
     than have been achieved previously has the desired effect of reducing the shortfalls across
     the HMAs.



                                              HOUSING MARKETS
     Initial self-containment analysis would suggest that none of the five districts could be seen
     as a self-contained market. Boston, however, comes very close to the self-containment
     threshold with 69.6% of all moves starting and completing within the district. Analysis that
     moves away from simple local authority functional boundaries provides a more complex
     picture of interactions within and between areas.

     The major flows of population within the HMAs are between Boston and East Lindsey,
     Lincoln and North Kesteven, and Lincoln and West Lindsey. Net migration flows show
     that Lincoln is losing population to both North Kesteven and West Lindsey. At first sight,
     these flows appear to confirm the definitions as presented in previous research by DTZ
     Consulting 1 of a Central (Lincoln, North Kesteven and West Lindsey) Housing Market
     Area and a Coastal (East Lindsey and Boston) Housing Market Area.

     All districts, except for East Lindsey, received the majority of their in-migrants from within
     Lincolnshire.          East Lindsey received 28.0% of in-migration from areas outside of
     Lincolnshire, but within the East Midlands, notably from Nottingham, Derby, Leicester,




     1
         Identifying the Sub-Regional Housing Markets of the East Midlands, DTZ Pieda Consulting, April 2005



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     Bassetlaw and Broxtowe. Significant population growth will stem from Yorkshire and The
     Humber and from London and the South East.

     Within East Lindsey the towns of Skegness and Louth have the highest levels of self-
     containment whilst the sub-area of Frithville, Sibsey, Stickney, Wainfleet & Friskney and
     Mablethorpe also has high self-containment. The more rural settlements have lower levels
     of containment generally. However, of those sub-areas with less than 3,000 households,
     Alford and Withern with Stain area has relatively high self-containment at 31.0% as does
     the sub-area of Burgh Le March, Croft & Willoughby with Sloothby. Both these areas are in
     close proximity to larger coastal towns.     The areas of Wragby, Woodhall Spa and
     Roughton, Mareham Le Fen & Tetford have significantly lower levels of origin-based self-
     containment. These areas are in closer proximity to Lincoln and border the Central
     Lincolnshire HMA.

     76.9% of households in Boston town that intend to move expect to move within the same
     sub-area. This represents a highly self-contained sub-market within the District. The
     suburban/urban and rural south sub-areas are also relatively self-contained sub-markets.
     The rural north sub-area has a far lower proportion of households currently residing within
     it that expect to move within the same area. A higher proportion of households moving
     from the rural north expect to move to the suburban/urban sub-area.

     In Lincoln the highest destination based self-containment is found within the Glebe ward at
     29.8% and the lowest within Minster at 13.3%.        The previous housing needs study,
     conducted in 2005, showed that 61.0% of survey respondents that moved to their present
     address in the two years previous moved within Lincoln. This is a surprising result for a
     City and would confirm that Lincoln is part of a wider Housing Market Area with North
     Kesteven and West Lindsey.

     Both the previous housing needs survey and the 2001 Census migration statistics show
     lower levels of self-containment in North Kesteven with only 46.3% of households that
     moved within the two years previous to the survey moving within the district. The 2001
     Census shows self-containment of 51.4% for North Kesteven. At the sub-district level there
     is much movement between areas within North Kesteven and between these areas and those
     outside of the local authority boundary. This suggests that the housing markets within
     North Kesteven operate within larger markets, with net migration flows showing greatest
     connectivity with Lincoln.

     In West Lindsey, the Gainsborough, Lea and Morton area operates as a relatively contained
     sub-area within West Lindsey. It is also clear that movement within the villages and



18
     hamlets outside of the main settlements are also relatively contained, whilst Market Rasen
     and Caistor have relatively low proportions of moves that both originate and settle within
     their respective areas.      Each of the settlements receive significant proportions of in-
     migration from the more rural areas. These rural areas are also in receipt of households
     moving from Lincoln, as is Market Rasen and the Gainsborough, Lea and Morton area.
     Caistor by contrast is in receipt of a higher proportion of moving households from North
     and North East Lincolnshire to the north. Market Rasen has a greater connection with East
     Lindsey.

     In conclusion there is strong evidence in terms of population distributions, household types,
     migration patterns, breadth of house prices and property types to support the concept of a
     Central Lincolnshire Housing Market Area.

     For the Coastal Housing Market Area the evidence is less conclusive.         On the one hand
     Boston has relatively little in the way of coastal settlements, has different population
     structures, has very different migration patterns, has a different economy and is far less rural
     than East Lindsey. It also has a much greater propensity to self-containment. East Lindsey
     has an older population, and growth driven from outside Lincolnshire.            Much of East
     Lindsey is rural in nature and could be seen as being separate from its own coastline in
     terms of the housing market.           On the other hand Boston and East Lindsey do have
     comparable levels of both current and future housing need, although different levels of
     supply result in them having different overall requirements for affordable housing.

     So one could talk of a rural housing market area bounded by Wragby, Woodhall Spa &
     Roughton, Mareham Le Fen & Tetford to the west, the coast to the east and Boston town to
     the south.      And then separately identify a coastal housing market area (primarily
     concentrated between Mablethorpe and Skegness) that exists as a strip that runs only a few
     miles inland.

     These distinctions are vital in terms of determining appropriate policies at the local level,
     although there may still be a benefit and a convenience to maintaining the terminology of a
     Coastal Lincolnshire Housing Market Area.




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20
1            APPROACH
    1.1      Background

    1.1.1    In November 2006 the Central and Coastal authorities of the Eastern Sub-Region (the
             Lincolnshire Housing Market Area (LHMA)), with match funding from the East Midlands

             Regional Housing Board, commissioned Outside to carry out a Housing Market Assessment

             (HMA) within their area.


    1.1.2    The LHMA falls within the Eastern Sub-Region of the East Midlands and covers the
             administrative areas of Boston Borough Council, City of Lincoln Council, East Lindsey
             District Council, North Kesteven District Council and West Lindsey District Council.


    1.1.3    The LHMA is incredibly diverse: the city of Lincoln is a centre of employment and the main
             urban area within the LHMA whilst the other four districts present a rural picture with
             Market Towns such as Boston, Louth, Horncastle, Sleaford and Gainsborough acting as urban
             centres.


    1.1.4    The 2005 mid-year population projections for the five authorities suggest that some
             469,000 people live in the LHMA, although there is concern that the figures may not fully
             take account of the large-scale international migration that has occurred, particularly since
             May 2004.


    1.1.5    One of the biggest challenges identified by the Lincolnshire Housing Forum is matching
             housing supply with the changing demands being placed on the area’s housing markets:


                 Lincoln City faces challenges in relation to the growing student population being
                 attracted by the University which is undergoing an ambitious expansion programme

                 East Lindsey has the highest proportion of over 65+ year olds in the East Midlands

                 Boston has seen a significant influx of economic migrants from Europe and experienced
                 the highest house price rises (terraced houses) in the region for the period 1999 to 2004

                 North Kesteven has one of the highest projected population growth rates in the East
                 Midlands and experiences notably higher than average economic activity rates against
                 the East Midlands average

                 Whilst all authorities face significant affordability challenges and a mismatch between
                 supply and demand, some individual wards, particularly in West Lindsey experience
                 high void rates




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1.1.6          In October 2004, DTZ Pieda Consulting were commissioned by the East Midlands Regional
               Assembly and the East Midlands Regional Housing board to map the pattern of sub-regional
               housing markets across the East Midlands. 2 DTZ used the following datasets, which were
               mapped and analysed to inform the identification of the housing markets in the region:


                    Household migration trends

                    Travel to work patterns

                    Employment trends

                    Average house prices and house price to income ratios

1.1.7          DTZ identified ten Housing Market Areas in the East Midlands; two of which are in wholly in
               Lincolnshire and are the subject of this study. A third, the Peterborough HMA, straddles
               the boundary with the East of England Region and includes the Lincolnshire Districts of
               South Holland South Kesteven.


               Lincolnshire Central Housing Market

1.1.8          Lincoln as the economic and employment centre dominates the central Lincolnshire HMA.
               There is considerable travel from northern and southern hinterlands into Lincoln. Its
               influence extends further east (due to the lack of employment centres) rather than west
               where Newark is an employment pull. The market does not extend significantly into South
               Kesteven where Grantham and Peterborough are greater employment pulls.


               Lincolnshire Coastal Housing Market

1.1.9          Coastal Lincolnshire is polycentric with no single employment centre and a high degree of
               in-migration and second home purchases. Localised housing markets prevail around small
               market towns and the area is particularly rural in character. The north of this area is
               affected by Grimsby and the south by Boston as employment centres.



1.1.10         In July 2005, the Centre for Comparative Housing Research at De Montfort University was
               commissioned by the East Midlands Regional Assembly to provide data on each of the ten
               sub-regional housing markets. 3 The final report published in March 2006 contains profiles for
               each housing market providing an analysis on:



        2
            Identifying the Sub-Regional Housing Markets of the East Midlands, DTZ Pieda Consulting, April 2005


        3
            Housing in the East Midlands - Profile Information for the Housing Market Areas of the East Midlands, Centre for
        Comparative Housing Research, De Montfort University, March 2006



22
               Key characteristics

               Major challenges

               Variation within and between sub-regions

               Demographic drivers of demand

               Economic drivers of demand

               Supply trends

               Affordability

1.1.11   Lincolnshire HMA is characterised as wholly rural with the exception of Lincoln. Other key
         findings for the two Lincolnshire housing market areas include:

         (i)   Demographic

                      High demographic pressure with immigration particularly in North Kesteven,
                      Boston and East Lindsey
                      A higher than average elderly population across the area
         (ii) Economic

                      East Lindsey has the highest Travel To Work outside its district
                      Lincoln is influenced by HMOs and students
                      West Lindsey has small pockets of low demand housing
                      Average incomes are below East Midland averages
         (iii) Supply trends

                      There has been a rapid rise in house prices causing pressure and supply needs to
                      address changing demand
                      Lincolnshire has a high proportion of detached homes
                      Empty homes are not a significant issue by national standards but there is a high
                      proportion of second homes on the coast
                      The number of social rented housing is falling
         (iv) Supply and Demand

                      Lincolnshire is a regional hot spot with extremely high increases in house prices
                      fuelled in part by restricted supply but also by immigration
                      There is an affordability challenge evident in East and West Lindsey
         (v) Housing Need

                      There has been an increase in homelessness in the HMA between 2001-2005 and
                      demand on the housing register increased by 87% higher than any other HMA
                      165 gypsy caravans were recorded in January 2005 30% of which were on
                      unauthorised sites




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1.1.12         A database of key profile information was produced and can be found on the Intelligence
               East Midlands website. 4



1.2            Purpose and objectives of the study

1.2.1          The purpose of commissioning a comprehensive Strategic Housing Market Assessment for
               Lincolnshire was “to identify, clearly define and analyse the housing market(s) operating
               within the combined study area to enable all partners in the area to work together to
               develop and implement sustainable policies which lead to balanced housing markets in
               planning and housing terms.”


1.2.2          Coupled with this was a requirement for a robust Accommodation Assessment for Gypsy and
               Travellers across the geographic county of Lincolnshire (this is reported separately).


1.2.3          The study’s key objectives can be summarised as follows:

               (i)   to understand the make up of the two housing markets individually and combined,
                     together with any sub-markets operating within the five individual districts

               (ii) to understand the overall relationship between demand and supply identifying any
                     imbalances relative to demand and how this breaks down by area, type, tenure etc

               (iii) to provide an assessment of the shape of the future housing market(s) and provide a
                     long term strategic view of housing need and demand based on current trends and
                     existing policies

               (iv) to identify strategic options for intervention in the housing market(s) that will assist in
                     removing any imbalances in the market(s) and inform key investment decisions

               (v) to understand how and to what extent the identified housing market(s) interact with
                     neighbouring markets, including those operating across the regional boundaries

               (vi) to develop a sound approach to planning for the mix of households need across the
                     study area

               (vii) to assist local planning authorities to justify certain levels of affordable housing and to
                     decide how housing need translates into different sizes and types of affordable housing

               (viii) to ensure awareness between partners of the dynamics of the housing market(s) and
                     sub-markets and the interactive effects within the study area, including the role of
                     Market Towns and their relationship with their rural hinterlands

               (ix) to understand the economic and demographic trends within the study area


        4
            www.intelligenceeastmidlands.org.uk


24
         (x) to promote a method by which the study area authorities can monitor and evaluate the
               housing market(s) to ensure that the systems can be maintained as real time dynamic

         (xi) to produce sound evidence for the RSS Public Examination and LDF Examinations within
               the study area in relation to both the operation of the local housing market and
               Gypsies and Travellers accommodation assessment


1.2.4    The output requirements of the study were:

         (i)   A report on Housing Market Assessment which meets the key criteria for a robust
               Strategic Housing Market Assessments, including a detailed summary at district level
               for each of the five districts which make up the study area

         (ii) A report on Gypsy and Traveller Accommodation Assessments that reflects the Draft
               Practice Guidance, with appropriate outputs for the whole of Lincolnshire, each HMA
               and the individual five districts

         (iii) Recommendations for policy direction for both studies


1.2.5    The SHMA applies a mixed methodology consisting of four key elements to address these
         aims and objectives: secondary data analysis, stakeholder consultation, a postal survey of
         West Lindsey and a specialist survey of Gypsies and Travellers.



1.3      Secondary data analysis and literature review

1.3.1    A range of secondary data and relevant literature was collated and analysed to inform the
         SHMA and to set the study in context.


         Literature review

1.3.2    There is a significant amount of housing research that has already been carried out in the
         East Midlands, in the Housing Market Area and in the districts, including:


               Completed housing needs studies in Boston, East Lindsey, Lincoln and North Kesteven

               Relevant local, sub-regional and regional research including studies on black and
               minority ethnic communities and Gypsies and Travellers

               Plans and strategies including existing RSS, RHS, Local Development Documents, and
               local Housing Strategies

               Other housing market assessments being undertaken in the region

1.3.3    Where information is drawn from these sources, their details are cited in footnotes.




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        Data analysis and statistical projections

              2001 Census and related population estimates to capture demographic indicators,
              including current work on population and household projections

              2001 Census origin and destination data alongside NHS Patient Register to track
              migration and self-containment

              Income and household information from housing needs studies and other local and sub-
              regional income data

              Data from online sources including NOMIS, National Statistics, Neighbourhood Statistics
              and the Land Registry on the labour market, earnings, demographics and house prices

              Internal data sources including the HSSA and Council Tax Register (for distribution of
              Council Tax Bands and market stability)

              Information on housing costs and income from local research and national data sources

              Data on personal incomes and modelled household income data


1.4     Stakeholder consultation

1.4.1   The input of stakeholders into the study adds value to the research, as well as contributing
        to the process of validation. It is also a tried and tested approach to addressing the needs
        of hard-to-reach groups.


1.4.2   The purpose of the qualitative elements is:

        (i)   to gather qualitative information on key groups under-represented in the household
              survey

        (ii) to ensure that the qualitative experience and knowledge of stakeholders is captured to
              inform and validate the quantitative analysis

        (iii) to access key secondary data sources and inform our interpretation of the data

        (iv) to ensure we are fully conversant with the issues around demand, needs and supply
              and the whole market in each of the districts and the sub-region


1.4.3   Specific research questions addressed through the stakeholder consultations (and secondary
        data analysis also), include:

        (i)   Barriers for entering the housing market particularly for specific groups such as black
              and minority ethnic communities, key workers and vulnerable people

        (ii) The supply and demand for dwellings of different ages, sizes, tenure, type and
              location, including how existing stock can be better utilised and the influence of
              second homes



26
         (iii) The characteristics that have been important in producing strong and weak housing
              market sub-areas – e.g. facilities, schools, stock market performance, employment,
              public transport etc

         (iv) The inter-connecting influences of districts examining the links between travel and
              employment (and hence housing) especially across different employment groups (e.g.
              managerial, manual etc)

         (v) The influence of transport connections in the region - both positive and negative and
              any potential benefits that are unrealised


1.4.4    Interviews took place with officers from Lincolnshire County Council, Traveller Education
         Service and the Gypsy Liaison Group. In addition a Stakeholder seminar was held in Lincoln
         with representatives from RSLs, developers, estate agents, voluntary sector groups, local
         authority officers, Housing Corporation, Regional Housing Board and Government Office.


1.4.5    Comments from stakeholders are shown in “tan” boxes at various points through the report.



1.5      West Lindsey housing needs survey

1.5.1    Of the five commissioning authorities, only West Lindsey did not have an up-to-date
         household survey that could inform the SHMA. Consequently, a postal survey only to 10,000
         resident households was conducted in West Lindsey; this is reported separately.


1.5.2    The questionnaire included the following core topics:


             Housing characteristics – tenure, house type, property age, number of rooms and
             facilities; property condition and suitability of current housing; amenities; adaptations.

             Household characteristics – household income, equity, employment; housing costs;
             composition by gender, age, ethnicity and disability; under/over occupation; special
             needs.

             Respondents’ housing history in terms of tenure, location and reasons for moving.

             Characteristics, moving intentions and requirements of existing and new forming
             households.

1.5.3    The housing needs survey was based upon a random probability sample drawn from the
         Council Tax Register stratified by sub-areas.



1.6      Gypsy and Traveller survey

1.6.1    The commission included a requirement to undertake an assessment of the housing needs
         of gypsies and travellers. In our view this should not be treated as a bolt-on to a wider

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        housing market assessment, as there are particular methodological and ethical
        considerations that need to be considered when undertaking studies of gypsies and
        travellers that go beyond the more general requirement of a SHMA.         This element is
        reported separately.


1.6.2   The advice and support of Liaison Officers was sought from the outset to ensure that we
        proceed with due sensitivity to the local contexts. The participation of trusted people
        working with Travellers, and recognised Gypsy and Traveller site representatives also
        assisted the research team in addressing potential issues, including:


            concerns about trust and providing well-founded assurances that the project will
            benefit rather than harm the researched communities

            concerns about communication

            achieving an adequate sample at the sites for the purpose

            achieving an appropriate gender and age mix

            concerns about confidentiality

            recognising in advance possible hesitation about particular topics (such as patterns of
            travel; types of work; and income)

1.6.3   Following consultations with local stakeholders, the face-to-face survey has been
        conducted in two waves to ensure adequate representation of all travelling communities.


1.6.4   Face-to-face interviews were carried out with a range of English Gypsies, Irish Travellers
        and other Gypsy and Traveller ethnic groups. The survey questionnaire consisted primarily
        of a series of closed format questions, followed by a smaller number of opportunities for
        more open responses in later sections.



1.7     Report structure

1.7.1   This Strategic Housing Market Assessment report is structured to reflect the SHMA guidance.
        Analysis is presented in five broad sections:




28
          The current housing market, including:              The demographic and economic context
                                                              The housing stock
                                                              The active market
          Future housing market, including:                   Indicators of future demand
          Housing need, including:                            Current housing need
                                                              Future need
                                                              Affordable housing supply
                                                              Housing requirements of households in need
          Housing requirements of               specific      Families
          household groups, including:                        Older people
                                                              Minority and hard-reach groups
                                                              Households with specific needs
          Conclusion and recommendations




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2           STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET
            ASSESSMENTS
    2.1     Government guidance

    2.1.1   Housing needs do not exist within a vacuum; they have a symbiotic relationship with the
            wider housing market. For practical and structural reasons, housing needs are measured
            within the confines of a given local authority’s borders, whereas housing markets are not
            similarly constrained.


    2.1.2   The approach to housing market assessments used by Outside is based in government

            guidance and utilises an analytical framework that sets housing needs in their markets
            context. The starting point is to consider the operation and scope of the current housing
            markets, then identify key drivers within the housing system to assess the future housing
            market and subsequently assess the housing needs of the district(s).


    2.1.3   Strategic Housing Market Assessments are crucial to decision-making and resource-
            allocation processes for local authorities. From a land-use planning perspective, housing
            needs assessments are legally necessary to support affordable housing policies in local
            plans, particularly to secure developer contributions to affordable housing via s106
            agreements.


    2.1.4   Other reasons for undertaking Strategic Housing Market Assessments include:


                informing local and regional spatial planning and housing strategies

                assisting authorities with decisions on social housing allocation priorities, private sector
                renewal options and the valuation of new-build low cost home ownership units

                informing the development of housing policies on stock conversion, demolition and
                transfer

    2.1.5   The role of housing assessments can be summarised thus:

                    “Assessments are…key to investment decisions; helping authorities to look at
                    local housing markets when new settlements are planned, particularly where
                    catchments cover several local authority areas. In these situations,
                    understanding the housing market will help authorities to assess housing
                    demand and need in relation to new settlements. It will also help
                    authorities to justify a certain level of affordable housing whilst ensuring
                    that the dwelling mix reflects the profile of local housing demand and need;
                    and in relation to planning policies for affordable housing, aiding an
                    appreciation of how housing need translates into different sizes and types of


    30
                           affordable housing (i.e. intermediate market, social rented) so that they can
                           negotiate appropriate mixes on new sites.” 5

2.1.6          In terms of both housing markets and housing need analysis, our approach has always been
               grounded in current government guidance. This includes:


                       Bramley, G. et al, Local Housing Needs Assessment: A Guide to Good Practice, DETR,
                       July 2000

                       DTZ Pieda, Housing Market Assessment Manual, ODPM, February 2004

                       Local Housing Systems Analysis Best Practice Guide, Communities Scotland, 2004

                       Local Housing Market Assessment Guide, Welsh Assembly Government, 2006

                       Draft guidance including Local Housing Assessment, A Practice Guide (Discussion Draft),
                       March 2005 and Housing Markets Assessments, Draft Practice Guidance, ODPM,
                       December 2005

                       Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance Version 1 and Version 2,
                       Communities and Local Government, March 2007 and August 2007

2.1.7          It is significant that the Guidance provides greater defence to challenge by defining the
               terms that ensure a robust set of outputs:

                           …a strategic housing market assessment should be considered robust and
                           credible if, as a minimum, it provides all of the core outputs and meets the
                           requirements of all of the process criteria in figures 1.1 and 1.2 (see Table 1
                           and Table 2 below). In such circumstances there is no need for the approach
                           used to be considered at the independent examination 6

2.1.8          Furthermore the Guidance states that:

                           …strategic housing market assessments will not provide definitive estimates
                           of housing need, demand and market conditions. However, they can provide
                           valuable insights into how housing markets operate both now and in the
                           future. They should provide a fit for purpose basis upon which to develop
                           planning and housing policies by considering the characteristics of the
                           housing market, how key factors work together and the probable scale of
                           change in future housing need and demand. 7




        5
            Local Housing Assessment, A Practice Guide (Discussion Draft), March 2005, p8
        6
            Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance Version 2, CLG, August 2007, p9
        7
            ibid, p9

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                                        Table 1: Core Outputs

     1     Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure
     2     Analysis of past and current housing market trends, including balance between supply
           and demand in different housing sectors and price/affordability. Description of key
           drivers underpinning the housing market
     3     Estimate of total future number of households, broken down by age and type where
           possible

     4     Estimate of current number of households in housing need

     5     Estimate of future households that will require affordable housing

     6     Estimate of future households requiring market housing

     7     Estimate of the size of affordable housing required
     8     Estimate of household groups who have particular housing requirements e.g. families,
           older people, key workers, black and minority ethnic groups, disabled people, young
           people, etc.


                                      Table 2: Process Checklist

     1     Approach to identifying housing market area(s) is consistent with other approaches to
           identifying housing market areas within the region

     2     Housing market conditions are assessed within the context of the housing market area

     3     Involves key stakeholders, including house builders
           Contains a full technical explanation of the methods employed, with any limitations
     4
           noted
     5     Assumptions, judgements and findings are fully justified and presented in an open and
           transparent manner

     6     Uses and reports upon effective quality control mechanisms
     7     Explains how the assessment findings have been monitored and updated (where
           appropriate) since it was originally undertaken




2.2      Housing systems

2.2.1    A given local authority area, sub-region or region can be understood in terms of a housing
         “system” made up of households living in different dwelling types and different tenures in
         different locations.   A housing system is both an output of, and a domain for, housing
         demand and supply incorporating and involving the actions of thousands of resident
         households living in thousands of dwellings. The result is a myriad of neighbourhoods with
         varying characteristics and varying propensities to change in a changing market
         environment.




32
2.2.2          A “system” can be defined as a group of elements organized in such a way that every
               element is to some degree interdependent (directly or indirectly) with every other element
               and the operation of which together creates something that is more than just the sum of its
               parts. In a systems approach many authors require that the system have a function, goal or
               purpose. In the case of a ‘housing system’ this function or goal may be to achieve balance
               when operating effectively and efficiently.


2.2.3          Housing systems do not operate in isolation but are intrinsically linked to economic,
               demographic and political changes.               The housing system is continually influenced by
               changes in these elements at a variety of geographic scales from central government policy
               and nationally ageing populations to the changing perceptions locally of the relative
               attractiveness of different housing type, tenures and locations. Socio-economic changes
               for example shape the scale and pattern of demand and subsequent, albeit inelastic, supply
               for housing.


2.2.4          People invest more financial, temporal, and psychological resources in their homes than in
               any other material entity. Our homes offer us security and sanctuary and are taking on
               growing importance as a source of return on financial investment.                          There are wide
               variations in household composition, income, lifestyle and culture; the demands and
               behaviours of which are equally as varied.             Understanding the behaviour of households is
               fundamental in defining a functional housing system.


2.2.5          A ‘local housing system’ can be described as a largely self-contained or independent area,
               where different elements (households, landlords, house builders, government, Housing
               Associations etc) are linked together by a variety of flows (property sale and purchase,
               household movement etc).            The scale and direction of these flows into and out of the
               housing system is dependent on forcing agents operating at a series of scales. It is the
               combination of flows and forces on them that influence the shape of the housing system
               both temporally and spatially. 8 An understanding of these elements is vital to navigate the
               housing system and to understand the most appropriate ways to steer it to successful
               balanced operation.



2.3            Assessing the current housing market

2.3.1          The first step in a Strategic Housing Market Assessment is to determine the current
               situation in the housing markets of the area. A range of historical data to assess trends is
               used to provide an understanding of the drivers underpinning the housing market.


        8
            Local Housing System Analysis Good Practice Guide, Maclennan et al. Communities Scotland, September 2004

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2.3.2   There are three key areas of the current housing market to consider:

        (i)   The demographic and economic context

        (ii) The housing stock

        (iii) The active market


        The demographic and economic context

2.3.3   An understanding of the demographic and economic context is achieved by focussing on:

        (i)   National and regional economic policy
              How interest rate trends, government funding for housing/regeneration and changes to
              benefits have affected the housing market in the recent short/medium term.

        (ii) Demographic data and household types
              Population and household structures, in particular age, gender and ethnic structure of
              the population as well as the type of household.

        (iii) Labour market
              Numbers and types of employment available in an area (including the balance between
              lower and higher paid jobs by employment sector and occupational structure)
              determine the levels of wages and the tenure, size and location of housing need and
              demand.

        (iv) Incomes and earnings
              Incomes are a key driver of demand. Important factors to consider include the
              distribution of incomes in the housing market area and how they change over time, the
              change in local incomes relative to the national income distribution and the source of
              household income, including the extent of dependence on benefits.

        (v) Housing costs
              House prices data from the Land Registry are analysed at postcode level. Estimates of
              lower quartile market rents by house size are obtained from local estate agents.


        The housing stock

2.3.4   A number of key areas are considered:

        (i)   Total dwelling numbers
              Levels of current stock by size, type, tenure and location from the most recent
              Housing Strategy Statistical Appendices of each authority. The overall number of
              dwellings can be adjusted to take into account dwellings that are abandoned,
              uninhabitable, long-term vacant, or used primarily as a second residence. Vacancy


34
               rates are also available from the HSSA, whilst estimates of empty properties can be
               obtained from Council Tax Registers, stock condition surveys or organisations owning
               or letting property including estate agents.

         (ii) Tenure
               Overall figures on tenure changes are collated from the Census alongside a
               consideration of the extent to which they are the result of construction, demolition,
               conversion of existing dwellings or existing dwellings changing tenure. Construction
               and demolition figures are available from HSSA for social housing.

         (iii) House size and type
               House size and type can be obtained from the Census.

         (iv) Stock condition
               Where available we can draw upon information from stock condition surveys, assuming
               the findings are comparable. Stock condition surveys will provide information on the
               quality of the stock particularly in relation to Decent Homes. The HSSA also has
               evidence about the numbers of homes that comply with Decent Homes standards.

         (v) Shared housing and communal establishments
               Communal lodging establishments, and shared dwellings are important types of
               accommodation for homeless households as well as for students – information is
               available from the Census.


         The active market

2.3.5    Assessing the active market provides evidence as to how housing demand may be leading to
         pressures in housing markets, and the extent of problems such as long-term vacancy and
         abandonment.       Where appropriate, this evidence will be supplemented with knowledge
         from stakeholders such as estate agents and developers.


2.3.6    To develop an understanding of housing market activity includes:

         (i)   Relative house prices and rents
               Trends in relative house price changes for different types and sizes of property in
               different locations provide an indication of the presence (or absence) of demand
               pressures and reflect the relative preferences for different locations and types of
               dwelling. In the private rental market, relative rents for different property types and
               the rates of change provide a good indicator of demand pressures and preferences.

         (ii) Affordability
               Analysis of affordability provides a picture of which locations and types of properties


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            are the most difficult for local people to afford to buy or rent. It will also indicate
            where the pressures and problems are for different types of housing.

        (iii) Over-crowding and under-occupation
            The degree of overcrowding and under-occupancy provides an insight into possible
            future household flows and potential levels of ‘concealed households’. The Census
            provides a measure of over-crowding and under-occupation by looking at households
            with greater numbers of members (compared to rooms) by tenure. This data is also
            available from local housing surveys. National surveys provide evidence of
            overcrowding or under-occupation, using the Bedroom Standard to comparing
            household composition against the number of bedrooms (rather than the number of
            rooms shown by the Census).

        (iv) Vacancy and turnover rates
            Turnover rates, difficult-to-let properties, and void levels can reveal potential
            imbalances in the types of housing needed, or areas deemed to be desirable or
            undesirable.

        (v) Available housing supply
            The available supply of market housing can be considered as what is currently
            advertised for sale or for rent. Turnover, particularly the time period during which it
            remains unsold in the market housing sector, will indicate the degree to which supply
            is available, together with the length of time housing is on the market or remains un-
            let.


2.3.7   Much of the analysis here takes the 2001 Census as a starting point or considers trends over
        the last five years; some looks at ten year periods. Each dataset has been considered in
        turn and the most appropriate time span has been selected for analysis taking into account
        market dynamics, data availability and national policy influences.



2.4     What is housing need?

2.4.1   Overall, one can talk of the housing requirements of a district and these requirements are
        made up of both demand and need. Households that can enter the general market without
        intervention of any sort are defined as demand.          This is the same as the economic
        definition of demand in that demand will become apparent in the general housing market
        and has a cost relationship with supply. On the other hand, households that are unable to
        enter the general market without some form of intervention by public service providers are
        defined as need. PPS3 defines housing need as:




36
                         The quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access
                         suitable housing without financial assistance 9

2.4.2           Consequently the guidance states that:

                         For the purposes of assessment, this means partnerships need to estimate
                         the number of households who lack their own housing or live in unsuitable
                         housing and who cannot afford to meet their housing needs in the market. 10

2.4.3           From the point of view of social housing providers, need is more significant. From the
                point of land use planning, both demand and need are relevant.


2.4.4           Need in this case, may also necessitate an understanding of aspirations. Much of recent
                government policy, not only in housing, seeks to empower citizens by taking into account
                the needs they identify for themselves, as opposed to those identified by “experts”. These
                aspirations are recognised as a legitimate basis for policy-making and should be taken into
                account, if possible, when assessing the housing requirements of an area. However, this
                can only realistically be achieved through the use of primary data collection methods such
                as bespoke household surveys.


2.4.5           Outside takes a pragmatic approach towards identifying housing need and demand that
                focuses on transparency and a clear audit trail to provide defensible data. This accords
                with the latest guidance, which states that:

                         No one methodological approach or use of a particular dataset(s) will result
                         in a definitive assessment of housing need and demand. The quality of the
                         data used is the important consideration in determining whether an
                         assessment is robust and credible rather than its nature. 11

2.4.6           The Housing Needs Model is a dynamic tool that both measures progress towards achieving
                policy aims and balancing housing markets and facilitates “what-if” scenarios to measure
                impacts of market change or market intervention.


2.4.7           The Model calculates the current housing need, future housing need and affordable housing
                supply as annual flows to arrive at a net figure for the number of additional affordable
                dwellings required in a District. This model is based upon the latest DCLG guidance. Table
                3 outlines the key stages in the model.




        9
             Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3): Housing, Communities and Local Government, November 2006, p27
        10
             Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance, Communities and Local Government, March 2007, p41
        11
             Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance, Communities and Local Government, March 2007, p11

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                           Table 3: Housing needs assessment model
                            CURRENT HOUSING NEED (gross backlog)
                                   (times a yearly quota)
                                               Plus
                              FUTURE HOUSING NEED (gross annual
                                         estimate)
                                              Minus
                                 AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY
                                              Equals
                           ESTIMATE OF NET ANNUAL HOUSING NEED



2.4.8   Each line in the model is explained in detail with supporting information.      Modelling
        housing needs is as much an art as a science and is very sensitive to the assumptions and
        interpretations made in the analysis. Our practice is to ensure that these assumptions are
        transparent in order that they are understood and agreed with the client before being
        finalised.


2.4.9   Having identified the scale of housing need, we can determine the range of appropriate
        responses to the need including the breakdown of social housing and intermediate tenures
        such as shared ownership and shared equity products.



2.5     What is unsuitable housing?

2.5.1   Those in unsuitable housing are defined in the guidance through a series of criteria,
        presented in Table 4. Households who are not in housing need but would like affordable
        housing are excluded from this modelling section of the Housing Market Assessment.




38
                                                    Table 4: Unsuitable housing 12
                 Main category           Sub-divisions
                 Homeless                Homeless households
                 households or           Households with tenure under notice, real threat of notice or lease
                 insecure tenure         coming to an end; housing that is too expensive for households in
                                         receipt of housing benefit or in arrears due to expense
                 Mismatch of             Overcrowded according to the bedroom standard
                 housing need and        Too difficult to maintain (e.g. too large) even with equity release
                 dwellings
                                         Couples, people with children and single adults over 25 sharing a
                                         kitchen, bathroom or WC with another household
                                         Households containing people with mobility impairment or other
                                         specific needs living in unsuitable dwelling (e.g. accessed via
                                         steps)which cannot be made suitable in-situ
                 Dwelling                Lacks a bathroom, kitchen or inside WC and household does not have
                 amenities and           the resources to make fit (e.g. through equity release or grants)
                 condition               Subject to major disrepair or unfitness, and household does not have
                                         the resources to make fit (e.g. through equity release or grants)
                 Social needs            Harassment from others living in the vicinity which cannot be
                                         resolved except through a move



2.5.2          It is not necessary to use the affordability measures to test whether households can afford
               their existing accommodation. Only households in arrears or in receipt of housing benefit
               should be regarded as being in housing need, on the grounds that their accommodation is
               too expensive. Otherwise, households should be assumed to be managing to afford their
               current housing.


2.5.3          The size of mortgage required should be compared to the entry-level price of a property of
               an appropriate size for the household (this is based on the size of the household whereby
               the bedroom standard can be applied and also the degree to which ‘ideal’ sized properties
               are available).



2.6            What is affordability?

2.6.1          The concept of affordability is critical in the needs assessment process. The degree to
               which households can afford market housing is based upon the ratio between household
               incomes and housing costs. The needs assessment uses gross household incomes and entry-
               level house prices to estimate housing need for affordable housing. This involves assessing
               whether or not current households who are in unsuitable housing can afford suitable market
               housing and also applying affordability analysis to newly forming and concealed households


        12
             Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance, Communities and Local Government, March 2007, p41

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             to establish numbers of actual and potential households who are likely to be in need of
             affordable housing.


2.6.2        A household is considered unlikely to be able to afford to buy a home that costs more than
             3.5 times the gross household income for a single income household or 2.9 times the gross
             household income for two income household. If possible, any allowance for existing equity
             that could be used towards the cost of home-ownership should be taken into account.


2.6.3        A household is considered able to afford market renting where the rent payable is no more
             than 25 per cent of their gross household income. 13


2.6.4        A household is taken as being able to afford a shared equity property where the rent and
             mortgage costs are no more than 25% of gross income.




        13
           ‘Rent payable’ is the entire rent due, even if it is partially or entirely met by HB. Other housing-related costs, such as
        council tax and utility bills should not be included.



40
3                 THE DEMOGRAPHIC AND
                  ECONOMIC CONTEXT
                                  Table 5: Summary of demographic and economic data                   14


                 Step                                Principal data sources             Data items
                 1.1 Demography and                 Census data, ONS mid-year           Population by ethnicity,
                 household types                    estimates, NHS registration         age and numbers of
                                                    data, ONS social trends             households by type (e.g.
                                                                                        families, couples, lone
                                                                                        parents, etc.), tenure and
                                                                                        household representative
                                                                                        rates, migration estimates
                 1.2 National and regional          Local authority economic            Interest rate trends, levels
                 economic policy                    development teams,                  of housing benefit,
                                                    regional development                Government funding for
                                                    agencies/regional                   regeneration, economic
                                                    observatories                       growth rates
                 1.3 Employment levels and          Labour Force Survey,                Employees in each
                 structure                          Annual Business Inquiry,            industrial sector (SIC) and
                                                    Business Register and               by occupational
                                                    Employment Survey,                  classification, commuting
                                                    Census                              patterns
                 1.4 Incomes and earnings           Inland Revenue personal             Individuals and households
                                                    incomes, CACI Paycheck,             by income band,
                                                    Experian, CORE, Annual              distribution of income by
                                                    Survey of Hours and                 age
                                                    Earnings, local surveys


    3.1            Introduction

    3.1.1          This chapter examines the demographic, economic and employment trends that affect the
                   housing markets in Lincolnshire. Section 3.2 provides an analysis of recent demographic
                   and household type and tenure trends in the housing market areas. Section 3.3 looks at the
                   impact of national and regional economic policy. Section 3.6 examines recent employment
                   and labour force trends in the housing market areas. The final section looks at incomes and
                   earnings in the housing market areas.



    3.2            Demography and household types

    3.2.1          The two Lincolnshire HMAs with a total population of around 435,000 house around 10% of
                   the East Midlands region population. The changing population totals for the five districts in


            14
                 Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance, Communities and Local Government, March 2007, p19

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               the Coastal and Central HMAs of Lincolnshire are shown in the mid-year population
               estimates reproduced in Table 6-Table 8. Table 6 shows the more recent figures for
               components of change (2004-2005), Table 7 shows the figures for 2003-2004, and Table 8
               shows the figures for 2002-2003. Compared to a 0.7% increase in England during the period
               2004-2005, the increase in the East Midlands is 0.6% and in Lincolnshire as a whole is 0.8%.


3.2.2          However, this overall picture involves contrast between different districts. Estimates for
               East Lindsey show a greater growth of 0.9% during this same period, largely due to
               migration whereas Lincoln and Boston show lower population increase and migration.
               Population estimates for the previous two years show some consistency, with a 1.3%
               increase in East Lindsey in mid 2003-mid 2004, and 1.2% increase in 2002-2003. Much of
               the population growth in the Eastern sub-area of the East Midlands has been attributed to a
               strong increase in the pensionable age group 15 , especially in rural areas.                    For example
               nearly 30% of East Lindsey’s population is aged 60 and over 16 .


3.2.3          North Kesteven and West Lindsey also shows a trend to continuing high levels of net
               migration and population increase across the period 2002-2005, whereas Lincoln shows
               consistently less. However, levels of net migration and total change in Boston have slowed
               during the period (net migration slowing from 1.2% in 2002-2003 to 0.3% in 2004-2005, total
               change slowing from 1.1% in 2002-2003 to 0.2% in 2004-2005). Demographic pressure has
               been and continues to be high overall, especially in East Lindsey and North Kesteven with
               high rates of population increase sustained over two decades, and more recent high rates
               of population inflow 17 .




        15
             Regional Economic Strategy for the East Midlands 2006-2020
        16
             East Midlands Regional Strategy – Digest of Evidence.
        17
          Housing in the East Midlands – Profile Information for the Housing Market Areas of the East Midlands. 2006. Centre for
        Comparative Housing Research, de Montfort University. Prof M. Oxley, Dr. T. Brown, Dr. A. Golland.



42
                                     Table 6: Mid-2004-Mid-2005 Population Estimates
                                                        Components of change 2004-2005 (Thousands)




                                                                                                                                               Total change

                                                                                                                                                              Total change
                                                                                                                                migration %
                            population




                                                                                                                                                                             population
                                         Live births

                                                        Live births




                                                                                                                    migration
                             Mid-2004




                                                                                                                                                                              Mid-2005
                                                                                                         change %
                                                                                    Deaths %

                                                                                               Natural

                                                                                                          Natural
                                                                                               change
                                                                           Deaths




                                                                                                                       Net

                                                                                                                                    Net
                                                                      %




                                                                                                                                                                    %
          Area
         ENGLAND           50,093.1 608.3                             1.2 486.9        1.0 121.4            0.2 217.1               0.4 338.5                      0.7 50,431.7
         EAST MIDS         4,279.7 48.3                          1.1 42.4            1.0         5.9       0.1 20.7                0.5 26.6                       0.6 4,306.3
         LINCS                673.5               6.4            1.0        7.5      1.1 -1.1 -0.2                     6.2         0.9           5.2              0.8          678.7
         Boston                 57.9              0.7            1.2        0.7      1.2         0.0       0.0         0.2         0.3           0.1              0.2            58.0
         East Lindsey         136.2               1.1            0.8        1.8      1.3 -0.7 -0.5                     1.8         1.3           1.2              0.9          137.4
         Lincoln                86.5              1.0            1.2        0.8      0.9         0.2       0.2         0.3         0.3           0.4              0.5            87.0
         North
         Kesteven             100.5               0.9            0.9        1.0      1.0 -0.1 -0.1                     1.3         1.3           1.2              1.2          101.7
         West
         Lindsey                84.0              0.8            1.0        1.0      1.2         0.0       0.0         1.1         1.3           0.9              1.1            84.9
         Total             50,093.1 608.3                                 486.9                121.4                217.1                     338.5                          50,431.7
         Source: Office for National Statistics.



                                     Table 7: Mid-2003-Mid-2004 Population Estimates
                                                        Components of change 2003-2004 (Thousands)

                                                                                                                                               Total change

                                                                                                                                                              Total change
                                                                                                                                migration %




                                                                                                                                                                              populat’n
                                                                                                                                                                              Mid-2004
                            population

                                         Live births

                                                        Live births




                                                                                                                    migration
                             Mid-2003




                                                                                                         change %
                                                                                    Deaths %

                                                                                               Natural

                                                                                                          Natural
                                                                                               change
                                                                           Deaths




                                                                                                                       Net

                                                                                                                                    Net
                                                                      %




          Area                                                                                                                                                      %

         ENGLAND           49,855.7 599.8                             1.2 497.9        1.0 101.8            0.2 135.5               0.3 237.4                      0.5 50,093.1
         EAST MIDS.        4,252.3 47.9                          1.1 43.2            1.0         4.7       0.1 22.7                0.5 27.4                       0.6 4,279.7
         LINCS                665.3               6.4            1.0        7.5      1.1 -1.1 -0.2                     9.3         1.4           8.3              1.2          673.5
         Boston                 57.2              0.6            1.0        0.7      1.2 -0.1 -0.2                     0.8         1.4           0.7              1.2            57.9
         East Lindsey         134.3               1.1            0.8        1.7      1.3 -0.6 -0.4                     2.5         1.9           1.8              1.3          136.2
         Lincoln                86.0              1.0            1.2        0.9      1.0         0.1       0.1         0.4         0.5           0.5              0.6            86.5
         North
         Kesteven               99.0              0.9            0.9        1.1      1.1 -0.2 -0.2                     1.7         1.7           1.5              1.5          100.5
         West
         Lindsey                82.8              0.7            0.8        0.9      1.1 -0.1 -0.1                     1.4         1.7           1.3              1.6            84.0
         Total             49,855.7 599.8                                 497.9                101.8                135.5                     237.4                          50,093.1
         Source: Office for National Statistics.




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                                          Table 8: Mid-2002-Mid-2003 Population Estimates
                                                                  Components of change 2002-2003 (Thousands)




                                                                                                                                                                Total change

                                                                                                                                                                                Total change
                                                                                                                                                 migration %




                                                                                                                                                                                                 populat’n
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mid-2003
                                 population

                                              Live births

                                                                  Live births




                                                                                                                                     migration
                                  Mid-2002




                                                                                                                          change %
                                                                                                    Deaths %

                                                                                                                Natural

                                                                                                                           Natural
                                                                                                                change
                                                                                        Deaths




                                                                                                                                        Net

                                                                                                                                                     Net
                                                                                %




                                                                                                                                                                                      %
              Area
             ENGLAND            49,646.9 577.6                                  1.2 498.5               1.0      79.2        0.2 129.7               0.3 208.9                       0.4 49,855.7
             EAST MIDS.         4,222.9 45.7                               1.1 43.3                  1.0          2.4       0.1 27.0                0.6 29.4                        0.7 4,252.3
             LINCS                 656.7               6.1                 0.9           7.4         1.1 -1.3 -0.2                      9.9         1.5            8.6              1.3          665.3
             Boston                  56.6              0.6                 1.1           0.7         1.2 -0.1 -0.2                      0.7         1.2            0.6              1.1            57.2
             East Lindsey          132.7               1.1                 0.8           1.8         1.4 -0.7 -0.5                      2.4         1.8            1.6              1.2          134.3
             Lincoln                 85.5              1.0                 1.2           0.9         1.1          0.1       0.1         0.4         0.5            0.5              0.6            86.0
             North
             Kesteven                97.1              0.9                 0.9           1.1         1.1 -0.2 -0.2                      2.1         2.2            1.9              2.0            99.0
             West
             Lindsey                 81.2              0.7                 0.9           0.9         1.1 -0.2 -0.2                      1.7         2.1            1.5              1.8            82.8
             Total              49,646.9 577.6                                      498.5                        79.2                129.7                     208.9                           49,855.7
            Source: Office for National Statistics.

3.2.4       The total household numbers and corresponding proportions by tenure within each district
            as recorded in the 2001 Census are shown in Table 9. The proportion of owner occupied
            households is comparatively highest in North Kesteven (77.1%) and in West Lindsey (75%),
            and lowest in Lincoln (63.2%). The proportion of social rented households is comparatively
            highest in Lincoln (22.8%) and Boston (20.0%) and lowest in East Lindsey (10.8%) and North
            Kesteven (11.8%). The proportion of private rented households is highest in East Lindsey
            (15.5%) and Lincoln (14.0%) and lowest in Boston (9.7%) and North Kesteven (11.1%). The
            volume of social rented housing owned by local authorities and RSLs has been falling across
            the HMA as throughout the East Midlands, albeit at a slower rate 18 .

                                                        Table 9: Household tenure by district
                                                                                   East                                                    North                                  West
              Tenure – All             Boston                                    Lindsey                         Lincoln                  Kesteven                               Lindsey
              households             No.                     %                   No.               %            No.            %          No.                  %                No.               %
              Owner-
              occupied            16854                 70.3                    40922            73.7          23138        63.2        29972             77.1                 24664             75
              Social rented        4809             20.0                        5970             10.8          8367        22.8         4581            11.8                   3992            12.1
              Private
              rented               2323                     9.7                 8642             15.5          5132        14.0         4305            11.1                   4217            12.9
              Total               23986            100.0                   55534             100.0             36637      100.0        38858            100.0                  32873           100.0
            Source: Census 2001

        18
           Housing in the East Midlands – Profile Information for the Housing Market Areas of the East Midlands. 2006. Centre for
        Comparative Housing Research, de Montfort University. Prof M. Oxley, Dr. T. Brown, Dr. A. Golland.



44
3.2.5    The composition of housing by tenure within each district is shown in Table 10 -Table 11.
         East Lindsey in the Coastal HMA, has the highest proportion of pensioner households of the
         five districts (30.5% of all households are single or couple pensioner households, 42.8% of
         social rented households are single or couple pensioner households). Lincoln in the Central
         HMA has the highest proportion of single ‘other’ (non-pensioner) households of the five
         districts across the three tenures (18.0% of all households are single non-pensioner
         households), and the highest proportion of lone parents with children households. North
         Kesteven and West Lindsey in the Central HMA have the highest proportions of households
         consisting of couples with children (29.6% of all households in West Lindsey and 29.5% of all
         households in North Kesteven are households consisting of couples with children).

                           Table 10: Household composition by tenure – Coastal HMA %
                                                          Boston                              East Lindsey
                                            occupied




                                                                                   occupied
                                                                  Private




                                                                                                        Private
                                                                  rented
                                                       rented




                                                                                                        rented
                                                                                              rented
                                                                                    Owner
                                             Owner


                                                        Social




                                                                                               Social
                                                                             All




                                                                                                                   All
         Single pensioner                     12.4      27.9       15.3     15.8     14.4      31.1      14.0     16.1
         Single Other                         10.6      13.1       30.3     13.0      8.4      10.2      22.3     10.7
         One Family Pensioner                 13.2        9.7        5.3    11.8     16.5      11.7        6.6    14.4
         Couple – no children                 25.0      10.3       16.3     21.2     24.6        9.1     19.9     22.2
         Couple with children                 29.5      18.8       16.7     26.1     26.4      20.9      20.6     24.9
         Lone parents with children            5.1      15.7       10.6      7.8      4.7      12.9      11.3      6.6
         Other                                 4.1        4.4        5.6     4.3      5.0        4.2       5.3     5.0
         Total                                100        100        100     100      100        100       100     100
         Source: Census 2001




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                        Table 11: Household composition by tenure – Central HMA %
                                       Lincoln                       North Kesteven                           West Lindsey




                         occupied




                                                              occupied




                                                                                                   occupied
                                     Social
                                    rented
                                              Private
                                              rented

                                                        All



                                                                          Social
                                                                         rented
                                                                                   Private
                                                                                   rented

                                                                                             All



                                                                                                               Social
                                                                                                              rented
                                                                                                                        Private
                                                                                                                        rented

                                                                                                                                  All
                           Owner




                                                                Owner




                                                                                                     Owner
         Type
        Single
        pensioner          12.4 22.1 12.2 14.6 11.8 29.9 12.8 14.1 12.1 29.0 13.4 14.3
        Single Other       15.0 21.6 25.7 18.0                   9.8        9.5 19.0 10.8             9.1 12.6 19.7 10.8
        One Family
        Pensioner          10.4        6.2       2.5    8.3 13.6 12.0                 5.9 12.5 13.0 10.6                   6.0 11.8
        Couple – no
        children           22.4        8.7 12.8 17.9 25.7                   8.6 20.1 23.1 25.1                   7.9 17.6 22.0
        Couple with
        children           28.3 17.8 10.8 23.5 31.3 20.1 27.2 29.5 32.0 19.8 24.8 29.6
        Lone parents
        with children       6.7 19.0 13.3 10.4                   4.5 15.9 10.5               6.5      5.0 15.9 12.7               7.3
        Other               4.8        4.6 22.8         7.2      3.3        4.0       4.5    3.5      3.7        4.2       5.7    4.0
        Total              100        100       100     100     100        100       100     100     100        100       100     100
        Source: Census 2001

3.2.6   The age profile of the household residents within each of the five districts as recorded in
        the 2001 Census is shown as proportions in Table 12. Lincoln in the Central HMA had the
        highest proportion of young people household residents, with 8.6% of residents within the
        20 to 24 age range, compared to far lower proportions in the other four Local Authorities
        (3.8% in North Kesteven, 3.9% in East Lindsey, 4.0% in West Lindsey, and 4.6% in Boston).
        Lincoln and North Kesteven had the highest proportions of household residents in the 30-39
        age range (15.4% in Lincoln; 15.5% in North Kesteven), while East Lindsey had the lowest
        proportion in this age range (12.6%). West Lindsey had the highest proportion of household
        residents aged between 40-54 (21.9%) while Lincoln had the lowest (18.7%). However the
        differences between districts for this age band are relatively small. East Lindsey had the
        highest proportion of household residents aged over 55 (36.1% of all household residents)
        compared to far lower figures elsewhere (Boston 31.6%; North Kesteven 30.4%; West
        Lindsey 30.8%). Lincoln had by far the lowest proportion of household residents aged over
        55 (24.1%).


3.2.7   Overall, the 2001 Census data, although out of date, indicates that Lincoln has a younger
        age profile than the other Local Authorities. North Kesteven at the time of the 2001 Census
        had a low proportion of household residents in the 20-24 range but a high proportion
        between 30-39. West Lindsey had the highest proportion of household residents aged
        between 40-54, which suggests a trend towards a particularly large older proportion of the


46
               population. Boston has a fairly high proportion of household residents in the younger age
               ranges (20-29). East Lindsey on the other hand has a high proportion of older people among
               household residents.


3.2.8          The ageing population profile of East Lindsey is also reflected in the particularly high
               proportion of female residents aged over 65 (22.7%). Boston also has a high proportion of
               female residents aged over 65 (20.6%), while proportions in Lincoln (16.6%), West Lindsey
               (18.8%) and North Kesteven (19.0%) are lower.

                                       Table 12: Household residents by sex and age %
                                                                                            North          West
                                      Boston         East Lindsey           Lincoln
                 Age                                                                       Kesteven       Lindsey
                0-14                          17.7              16.9              19.2             18.6        18.7
                15-19                          5.8                5.5              6.9              5.5         6.0
                20-34                         16.8              14.3              23.3             16.1        14.8
                35-49                         20.4              19.4              20.2             21.9        21.9
                50-64                         20.2              22.4              15.5             20.2        21.1
                65-79                         14.6              16.9              11.1             13.8        13.6
                80-94                          4.2                4.6              3.7              3.8         4.0
                95+                            0.1                0.1              0.0              0.1         0.1
                Total                       100.0              100.0             100.0            100.0       100.0
               Source: Census 2001

3.2.9          The 2001 Census ethnic profile of the population of the five districts in the coastal and
               central housing market areas of Lincolnshire is shown in Table 13. Data has been grouped
               for purposes of summarising the profile across many different ethnic categories. Over 97%
               of the population across the two HMAs is classified as British – White. The BME population in
               the five districts is relatively small, although Lincoln has a lower proportion of British-White
               (95.5%) and a higher proportion of Other-White, Mixed, Asian, Black and Other groups than
               the other four districts. It is recognised in the Regional Economic Strategy that ethnic
               minority groups have historically had lower levels of employment 19 , although there have
               been improvements in recent years and there are variations between ethnic groups. A
               challenge for understanding the impact of the BME population is that growth is largely
               made up of migrant workers who are primarily employed in the low wage agricultural
               sector and for whom numbers are not easily available 20 .




        19
             A Flourishing region – Regional Economic Strategy for the East Midlands 2006-2020.
        20
             East Midlands Regional Housing Strategy. Digest of Evidence.

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                        Table 13: Ethnic profile of population – Coastal and Central HMA %
          Ethnic                  Boston     East Lindsey                Lincoln     N. Kesteven         West Lindsey
          category
          (grouped)        No.        %         No.       %       No.         %       No.           %        No.       %
          British   -
          White           54056     97.0     127,445    97.7   81,726       95.5     91,429       97.2   77,639      97.7
          Other     -
          White            837       1.5       1659      1.3      1984       2.3     1571         1.7    1093         1.4
          Mixed            257       0.5        578      0.4       614       0.7      454         0.5        311      0.4
          Asian            252       0.5        381      0.3       606       0.7      221         0.2        179      0.2
          Black            121       0.2        146      0.1       214       0.3      165         0.2        125      0.2
          Other            212       0.4        248      0.2       434       0.5      176         0.2        434      0.5
          Total          55,735      100 130, 457        100   85,578        100     94,016       100    79,482       100
         Source: Office for National Statistics


3.3      International migration

3.3.1    Much has been made of the impact of international migration, particularly from European
         Union A8 accession states in recent years, upon the sub-regional economy. The main areas
         in the HMAs affected by this are Boston and Lincoln which have recent Eastern European
         populations, particularly Polish, as well as more established Portuguese communities.


3.3.2    Table 14 shows the distribution of new residents in the HMAs from overseas. 46.9% (2,300
         out of 4,900) new NI registrations from overseas nationals settled in Boston. The next
         biggest influx was to Lincoln (1,270).


3.3.3    Although nationally 25.9% of overseas nationals receiving NI numbers were from Poland, the
         proportion was 56.7% in Lincoln and 48.8% in East Lindsey. Boston and Lincoln received
         significant (higher than the national average) international migrants from Lithuania, Latvia
         and Portugal.


                       Table 14: NI Number allocations to overseas nationals 2005/06

                                                         Rep of Slovak      Rep of     Czech
                            All     Poland     India    Lithuania Rep       Latvia      Rep Portugal         Other
        All               662,390    25.9%       6.9%      4.7%      4.1%      2.2%       2.0%       1.8%     52.5%
        Boston              2,300    41.7%       1.3%    20.4%       2.2%     13.5%       1.7%       8.3%     10.9%
        East Lindsey          800    48.8%       2.5%    10.0%       5.0%      8.8%       3.8%           -    21.3%
        Lincoln             1,270    56.7%       3.1%      8.7%      2.4%      7.1%       1.6%       2.4%     18.1%
        North
        Kesteven              330    45.5%       3.0%    12.1%       3.0%     12.1%       3.0%           -    21.2%
        West Lindsey          200    30.0%      10.0%    20.0%      10.0%      5.0%           -          -    25.0%
         Source: DWP


48
3.3.4          Whilst these numbers are significant, particularly in their impact on Boston’s overall
               population, they do not necessarily represent particular housing needs that differ from the
               rest of the population. The major impacts appear to be felt initially in the private rented
               sector and in HMOs, but once these communities become more settled they are likely to
               disperse into other more common tenures. However, the impacts of this additional
               population upon the local housing market cannot currently be properly quantified, and
               should be the subject of further research.

                                                         Major changes/influences
                         Lincoln’s industrial and employment structure has changed from manufacturing
                         to services and education
                         Lincoln market limited by existing stock
                          “Family flight” – this can cause a donut effect with families leaving the centre
                         and moving to the suburbs. This effect has had impact across the HMA out
                         towards the Lincolnshire coast
                         The development of Lincoln is also making it more attractive to commuters.
                         The transport links have improved; Lincoln is adjacent to three cities.
                         Boston is relatively stable, but the migrant worker issues are greater than the
                         recorded information suggests
                         The impact has been to create cheaper housing connected to high density
                         occupation (this includes new build). Increase on housing registers for migrant
                         workers and there is evidence of landlord ‘exploitation’. This in turn has
                         pushed previous private rented sector tenants towards the social housing sector.
                         Migrant workers are travelling west not east to work



Student population

3.3.5          The last two decades have witnessed a massive growth in the numbers of young people in
               further and higher education. In some towns and cities this has had a disproportionate
               impact on the local housing market, creating in some cases “student ghettos” and leading
               to family flight from the effected neighbourhoods.


3.3.6          The University of Lincoln is the principal higher education institution in the study area. Its
               main campus, at Brayford Pool in the City of Lincoln, opened in 1996. This resulted in the
               relocation of students from the Hull campus, as well as the arrival of new students.
               Consequently, the University has grown rapidly in the last ten years and has since taken
               over a campus at the Cathedral, as well as outside the city at Riseholme. From minimal
               numbers before its relocation from Hull, student numbers at the University of Lincoln’s City
               campuses have risen rapidly, totalling 13,195 21 in 2006.



        21
             Higher Education Statistics Agency Limited 2006

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3.3.7          In 2007 there were approximately 5,500 22 bed spaces in purpose-built accommodation for
               students in Lincoln. This meets approximately 41% of the housing requirements of the
               higher education population and has, to a large extent relieved the impacts on the local
               housing market, which did affect adjacent neighbourhoods in the early years of the
               University. 1,217 of these bed spaces are on campus 23 and generally reserved for first year
               students, while the remainder are in purpose-built or converted flatted-developments off
               campus. However, a substantial number of students also rent accommodation within the
               private sector.


3.3.8          Primary research is probably required to better understand:


                    the impact of the student population on the city housing market

                    the particular housing needs of students

                    the extent of family flight and its impact on the city centre’s infrastructure


3.4             Armed forces

3.4.1          RAF Waddington is situated four miles from Lincoln city centre.           It is home to 3,000
               personnel. The RAF also has bases at Coningsby and Scampton (home to the Red Arrows).


3.4.2          The Ministry of Defence provides some housing for military personnel on bases, but
               increasingly encourages personnel to live in the local community. For obvious reasons, the
               MoD does not publish data on how many personnel are based in the study area and where
               they are housed.




        22
             City of Lincoln Council, Planning Dept 2007
        23
             University of Lincoln, Facts and Figures 2007



50
                                                 Table 15: Armed forces personnel
                                                         East                     North       West   East
               Count of persons           Boston      Lindsey      Lincoln      Kesteven   Lindsey   Midlands     England

               All Armed Forces               121        1101             526      3461       501      11760        156156


               Living in households           121         850             526      2699       501      10121        112295

               Living in communal
                                                0         251               0       762         0       1639         43861
               establishments
                Source: 2001 Census UV81

3.4.3           At the time of the 2001 Census, North Kesteven was home to 60.6% of the armed forces
                population in the study area and 29.4% of the population in the East Midlands. East Lindsey
                had 19.3% of the study area’s armed forces population. Only 17.7% of the population was
                living in communal establishments, which implies that 4,697 personnel were living in the
                community. The closure or expansion of any of the bases in the area would have significant
                impacts upon the local housing market, particularly in North Kesteven and East Lindsey, but
                also in Lincoln as the nearest major urban centre to the main bases.



3.5             National and regional economic policy

3.5.1           It is recognised in the Regional Economic Strategy 24 that there are disparities in economic
                performances and circumstances at local levels across the HMAs in Lincolnshire. Within a
                predominantly rural sub-area, Lincoln and the A1 corridor have different circumstances
                than the Coastal HMA, as the East coast districts face structural challenges both to
                economic prosperity and quality of life. Stronger growth has been projected around Lincoln
                and along the A1 route, and weaker growth in East Lindsey 25 .                  Among the challenges
                identified across the region, are: relative economic peripherality; low population densities
                in more remote areas; reliance on weak labour markets with high levels of casualisation;
                significant ‘hidden unemployment in the north and the east; access and deprivation
                problems on the coast; and a strong increase in the pensioner age group.                        Pointers of
                growth include: employment level growth rates exceeding the regional average, albeit from
                a lower base; growth in food processing, packaging and distribution industries especially in
                South Lincolnshire, where increasing numbers of migrant workers contribute to the local
                economy.




        24
             Regional Economic Strategy for the East Midlands 2006-2020
        25
             Ibid.

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3.5.2          Lincolnshire has been reported to be a regional hot spot for price rises in recent years,
               although prices have remained lower than regional standards, being based on a lower
               starting point 26 . Second homes are believed to have put pressure on local housing markets,
               especially in East Lindsey, (3.2% of housing stock classified as second homes). An
               affordability problem is suggested in East Lindsey and West Lindsey, where JRF reported
               that 40% of working households (those claiming and not claiming housing benefit) cannot
               afford to purchase homes at the bottom end of the market 27 . Poor housing conditions may
               be localised, and associated with a prevalence of low-paid seasonal employment along the
               coastal area 28 .


3.5.3          The levels of benefit among working age clients for each Local Authority in the Coastal and
               Central Housing Market Areas as of August 2004 is shown proportionally in Table 16. Highest
               proportion of those claiming benefits is in East Lindsey in Coastal HMA (17% of the working
               age population) and the lowest in North Kesteven in Central HMA (10% of the working age
               population). East Lindsey also has the highest proportion of those people aged 50 and over
               claiming benefits (25%). Lincoln in the Central HMA has the highest proportion of those
               people aged 25-49 claiming benefits.




        26
           Housing in the East Midlands – Profile Information for the Housing Market Areas of the East Midlands. 2006. Centre for
        Comparative Housing Research, de Montfort University. Prof M. Oxley, Dr. T. Brown, Dr. A. Golland.


        27
           Housing in the East Midlands – Profile Information for the Housing Market Areas of the East Midlands. 2006. Centre for
        Comparative Housing Research, de Montfort University. Prof M. Oxley, Dr. T. Brown, Dr. A. Golland.
        28
             East Midlands Regional Housing Strategy. Digest of Evidence.



52
                     Table 16: Benefits Data Indicators, Working Age Clients, August 2004 %
                                                     East                      North      West       East
          Benefits                     Boston     Lindsey         Lincoln   Kesteven   Lindsey   Midlands   England
          All Claiming                      14          17            16         10        13         14         14
          Job Seekers                         1           1            2          1         2          2            2
          Incapacity Benefits                 8         10             9          5         7          7            7
          Lone Parent                         2           2            3          1         1          2            2
          Carer                               1           2            1          1         1          1            1
          Others- Income
          Related                             0           1            0          0         0          0            0
          Disabled                            1           1            1          1         1          1            1
          Bereaved                            0           0            0          0         0          0            0
          Unknown                             0           0            0          0         0          0            0
          Male                              13          17            16          9        12         13           13
          Female                            16          18            17         10        13         15           15
          Aged 16-24                        10          11            10          6         9          9           10
          Pop’n aged 25-49                  13          14            17          8        11         12           13
          Pop’n aged 50 +                   20          25            24         15        17         20           20
          Pop’n 16-24                    5592       12231          14630       9394      8034    497771      5783053
          Pop’n aged 25-49              18246       38479          29235     33287      26263    1466325    17730016
          Pop’n 50-64 (male)
          50-59 (female)                10011       26243          11671     16812      15370    678392      7545984
         Source: Neighbourhood Statistics

3.5.4    Trends in benefit data indicators over the years 2001-2004 are shown in Table 17. The table
         shows little change over four years in percentages by district for all people of working age
         claiming a key benefit for each Local Authority in the Coastal and Central HMAs. East
         Lindsey and Lincoln remain well above regional and national averages with no clear trend
         towards a reduction in proportions of claimants.

                     Table 17: Benefits Data Indicators, Working Age Clients, August 2004 %
                                                     East                      North      West       East
          Benefits                     Boston     Lindsey         Lincoln   Kesteven   Lindsey   Midlands   England
          All claimants -
          August 04                         14          17            16         10        13         14           14
          All claimants -
          August 03                         14          17            17         10        13         14           14
          All claimants -
          August 02                         14          17            18         10        14         14           15
          All claimants -
          August 01                         14          16            17         10        13         14           14
         Source: Neighbourhood Statistics.



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3.5.5          Levels of homelessness among households within the five districts in the Coastal and
               Central housing market areas of Lincolnshire are indicated in Table 18-Table 19. The tables
               show numbers and percentages of households accepted as homeless in priority need,
               percentages for homeless households in B&B accommodation, and LA lettings to homeless
               households, across the five districts. Between the years 2000-2001 and 2002-2003 numbers
               of homeless people in East Lindsey quadrupled 29 . There were 320 homelessness
               acceptances in 2003-2004. Over the subsequent 12 months the authority concentrated on
               prevention and numbers have fallen 30 . Nevertheless the high numbers in East Lindsey may
               reflect an affordability problem.

                                                 Table 18: Homelessness 2004-2005 %
                 Homelessness                                  East                     North       West          East
                 Households                       Boston    Lindsey      Lincoln     Kesteven    Lindsey      Midlands      England
                 Homeless acceptances                4.7         4.1          7.1         5.3          4.3         6.6          7.8
                 Homeless households in
                 B&B accommodation -
                 31 March                            1.0         2.2        12.1             0           0         2.8          3.7
                 LA lettings to homeless
                 people in priority need               0            0       16.5         15.7            0        19.8              24
               Source: Neighbourhood Statistics



                                                Table 19: Homelessness 2004-2005 count
                 Homelessness                                  East                     North       West          East
                 Households                       Boston    Lindsey      Lincoln     Kesteven    Lindsey      Midlands      England
                 Homelessness acceptances –
                 unintentional; priority need         86         205         279          104           74         n/a         n/a
                 Homelessness – unintentional
                 & intentional; priority need        117         256         306          120           78      9,192     121,179
               Source: Neighbourhood Statistics


3.6             Employment levels and structure

3.6.1          Some recent labour force trends in the Coastal and Central Housing Market areas are shown
               in Table 20 and Table 21. The tables show rising levels of economic activity and rising
               employment rates among the working age population in four of the five districts. This trend
               is strongest in Lincoln in the Central HMA (the working age economic rate rose by 8.3% from
               February 2004–June 2006; the employment rate rose by 10.2% during the same period) and
               Boston in the Coastal HMA (the working age economic rate rose by 10.6% from February


        29
           Housing in the East Midlands – Profile Information for the Housing Market Areas of the East Midlands. 2006. Centre for
        Comparative Housing Research, de Montfort University. Prof M. Oxley, Dr. T. Brown, Dr. A. Golland.
        30
             Housing Needs in East Lindsey.



54
                2004 –June 2006; the employment rate rose by 9.3% during the same period).              The
                exception to this trend for growth in employment is within North Kesteven, where during
                the same period there were falling levels of economic activity (by 10.4%) and falling
                employment rates among the working age population (by 12.7%).            The fall in North
                Kesteven’s economic activity rates (% of working age population in work) means that the
                district is no longer above the East Midlands average, as was previously the case 31 . North
                Kesteven also has a high projected rate of population increase 32 . By contrast, Boston’s
                position by the same indicator has improved from below to above the East Midlands
                average, and Lincoln’s improvement confirms that Boston and Lincoln are likely drivers of
                growth in demand in housing. Lincoln City in particular has experienced growth with the
                expansion of the university and student housing.


3.6.2           Levels of unemployment fell across all the districts except North Kesteven. The biggest fall
                in unemployment among the working age population was in Lincoln (by 3.0% from February
                2004–June 2006) whereas in North Kesteven there was an increase in unemployment (by
                3.1% during the same period).




        31
             Ibid.
        32
             Ibid.

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                        Table 20: Employment and unemployment trends - Coastal %
                                                         Boston                    East Lindsey
                                  July     Jan     Jan   Mar       July     Jan     Jan   Mar
                                 2005-   2005-   2004-   2003-    2005-   2005-   2004-   2003-
      Employment type            June      Dec     Dec   Feb      June      Dec     Dec   Feb
      and level                  2006     2005    2004   2004     2006     2005    2004   2004
      Economic activity
      rate - working age          85.6    80.4    79.5     75.0    79.7    76.5    74.4     73.6
      Employment rate -
      working age                 82.6    76.2    76.2     73.3    76.9    74.3    70.9     69.6
      Unemployment
      rate - working age           3.5     5.1     4.2     n/a      3.5     2.9     4.7      5.5
      Managers         and
      senior officials             8.1     9.4    10.0     15.1    14.7    12.3    14.7     13.8
      Professional                 4.3     5.8     5.0      5.1     8.4     7.8     9.0      6.5
      Associate professional &
      technical                    4.6     6.0     7.0     10.5    14.2    11.7    10.6     13.1
      Administrative and
      secretarial                 13.3    12.7     9.5      8.7     9.0    10.9    11.0      9.7
      Skilled trades              16.6    17.7    13.8     17.6    13.2    17.6    20.0     16.6
      Personal service             8.9    10.4     9.4      8.4     9.2     7.7     7.6     10.1
      Sales and customer
      service                     10.8    12.5     9.7     n/a      8.1     8.1     7.4      3.0
      Process, plant and
      machine operatives           9.0    10.7    13.1     12.2     6.3     8.7     9.6     10.9
      Elementary                  24.3    15.8    20.8     19.9    17.0    16.0    14.3     15.8
     Source: Neighbourhood Statistics




56
                             Table 21: Employment and unemployment trends - Central %
                    Lincoln                              North Kesteven                     West Lindsey
                     July       Jan      Jan   Mar        July        Jan     Jan   Mar      July     Jan   Jan     Mar
                    2005-     2005-    2004-   2003-     2005-      2005-   2004-   2003-   2005-   2005-   2004-   2003-
                    June        Dec      Dec   Feb       June         Dec     Dec   Feb     June      Dec   Dec     Feb
                    2006       2005     2004   2004      2006        2005    2004   2004    2006     2005   2004    2004
Economic
activity rate -
working age           80.1      78.5    75.0     71.8     79.6       81.6    82.2    85.1    83.6    78.3    77.6    81.6
Employment
rate - working
age                   76.9     74.0     70.3     66.7     75.4       79.2    79.4    83.0    79.6    74.9    74.3    77.2
Unemployment
rate - working
age                    4.0       5.8     6.3      7.0       5.3       3.0     3.3     2.5     4.8     4.4     4.2     5.4
Managers and
senior officials       9.6      13.3     9.8     19.0     13.3       15.0    16.5    19.9    15.8    13.5    15.1    17.3
Professional           9.7       5.8    10.4      2.9     13.6        9.6     9.8    10.1     8.4     7.8     9.3     6.4
Associate
professional &
technical             10.4     10.5     12.0     10.9     16.6       14.1    14.6    15.7    12.8    18.9    13.7     9.1
Admin and
secretarial           11.0     10.9     10.4     13.4     10.8        9.6    14.2     8.5    12.2    13.8    11.4    12.0
Skilled trades        15.4     15.9     14.1      9.8       8.8       8.8    10.2    12.1    13.1    11.7     8.2    16.6
Personal
service                6.5       7.7    11.6      9.3     11.9       11.2     6.9     8.2     6.3     5.6     8.5    10.6
Sales and
customer
service               12.7     11.5     10.8     11.4       6.6       5.9     9.2     8.3     9.6     7.6     3.6     8.7
Process, plant
and machine
operatives             7.5       7.5     7.5      8.7       8.7      11.8    10.8    10.6    11.3     9.5     8.0     8.3
Elementary            17.2      17.1    13.5     14.6       9.7      12.2    10.2     6.6    10.6    10.9    14.4    10.8
           Source: Neighbourhood Statistics

3.6.3      Trends in the proportion of the labour force in each of the five districts employed at
           different levels across the same period are also indicated in Table 20 and Table 21.


3.6.4      The tables show the percentage in employment who are in the following categories:
           managers and senior officials; professional occupations; associate professional and
           technical; administrative and secretarial; skilled trades occupations; personal service
           occupations; sales and customer services; process plant and machine operatives;
           elementary occupations.


3.6.5      Lincoln in the Central HMA shows a decline in the period in the proportion of the labour
           force who are managers and senior officials, but there is a substantial increase in the
           professional class, and skilled trades occupations (the proportion of managers and senior
           officials fell by 9.4% from February 2004 –June 2006; the proportion of professionals rose by

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        6.8% during the same period; the proportion in skilled trades rose by 5.6% during the same
        period). North Kesteven in the Central HMA shows a decline in the proportion of the labour
        force who are managers and senior officials (6.6%), and also in the proportion who are in
        skilled trades (by 3.3%) during the same period. West Lindsey in the Central HMA shows an
        increase in the proportion of the labour force who are associate professional and technical
        (3.7%), and a decrease in the proportion who are in skilled trades (by 3.5%) and in personal
        service occupations (4.3%) during the same period.


3.6.6   East Lindsey in the Coastal HMA shows a decline in the period in the proportion of the
        labour force who are in the skilled trades (3.4%), and who are process, plant and machine
        operatives (4.6%), although there is an increase among those in the sales and customer
        services (4.6%). Boston in the Coastal HMA shows a decline in the proportion of the labour
        force who are managers and senior officials (7.1%), and also in the proportion who are in
        associate professional and technical employment (by 5.9%) during the same period. There
        is an increase in the proportion who are in administrative and secretarial posts (4.6%) and
        in elementary occupations (4.4%).



3.7     Earnings

3.7.1   The ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings for 2006 shows that Lincolnshire lags behind
        the rest of the country in terms of mean and median earnings. Table 22 compares the
        mean and median annual earnings of each of the five districts with the Lincolnshire and
        England figures. Boston is the district with the lowest annual earnings, the median being
        under £15,000 and is the only area where earnings have dropped from the previous year.
        City of Lincoln has the highest median income of the five districts, but the second highest
        mean earnings. North Kesteven experiences the highest mean earnings of the five districts
        and is also above the Lincolnshire mean.


3.7.2   Although house prices are lower in Lincolnshire than elsewhere in the country, the
        comparatively low level of earnings in the county is likely to have a significant impact on
        affordability issues.




58
                                 Table 22: Mean and median annual earnings 2006
                                           Median         % Annual Mean annual          % Annual            Lower
                                           annual           change    earnings            change          quartile
                                          earnings                        2006                            earnings
                                             2006
         England                           £19,849                2.5      £25,008              3.9         11,973

         Lincolnshire                      £17,489                1.7      £20,609              0.5         10,859
         Boston BC                         £14,906                -2.4     £17,451          -1.4             8,982

         East Lindsey                      £16,005                0.0      £18,439              2.1          8,455
         City of Lincoln                   £17,521                2.9      £19,388              0.7         11,410
         North Kesteven                    £17,377                3.9      £20,635              3.6         11,098

         West Lindsey                      £16,438                N/A      £19,176              1.5          8,223
         Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 8.7, ONS, 2006

3.7.3    In Table 23 the mean annual earnings for 2004 and 2006 is shown with the percentage
         difference from the England mean. The table shows that earnings have increased from
         2004 to 2006, but the gap between mean annual earnings in the housing market areas and
         the mean annual earnings for England appears to be increasing. Only in North Kesteven,
         which has seen the greatest increases in mean earnings is the gap closing with the England
         mean.

                    Table 23: Mean annual earnings compared with England 2004 to 2006
                                         Mean annual          % difference       Mean annual           % difference
                                        earnings 2004        from England       earnings 2006         from England
         England                               £22,922                               £25,008
         Boston BC                             £16,175                   29.4        £17,451                  30.2
         East Lindsey                          £18,186                   20.7        £18,439                  26.3
         City of Lincoln                       £18,976                   17.2        £19,388                  22.5
         North Kesteven                        £18,222                   20.5        £20,635                  17.5
         West Lindsey                          £19,122                   16.6        £19,176                  23.3
         Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 8.7, ONS, 2004 and 2006




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4                 THE HOUSING STOCK
                                       Table 24: Summary of housing stock datasets               33


                 Step                                Principal data sources             Data items
                 2.1 Dwelling profile               National Register of Social         Number of dwellings in the
                                                    Housing (NROSH), Housing            area by size, type, location
                                                    Strategy Statistical                and tenure
                                                    Appendix (HSSA), Business
                                                    Plan Statistical Appendix
                                                    (BPSA), Regulatory
                                                    Statistical Return (RSR),
                                                    Census, Dwelling Stock by
                                                    Council Tax Band NeSS
                                                    Dataset, Council tax
                                                    register
                 2.2 Stock condition                NROSH, HSSA,BPSA, RSR,              Condition of stock (unfit,
                                                    Stock condition surveys,            in need of major/minor
                                                    Decent Homes Modelled               repairs) by tenure and
                                                    Data and Census                     location
                 2.3 Shared housing and             Census, Student                     Estimated numbers of
                 communal establishments            accommodation services,             households living in shared
                                                    Voluntary sector and key            houses and communal
                                                    informants, LA Registers of         establishments
                                                    Licensed Houses in Multiple
                                                    Occupation, NeSS Licensed
                                                    HMO dataset, Local surveys




    4.1            Introduction

    4.1.1          This chapter looks at the current supply of market and social housing, including privately
                   rented accommodation.           It looks at the current stock profile by size, type, tenure and
                   location.


    4.1.2          The condition of the housing stock is also examined with reference to the fitness standard,
                   decent homes standard and the new Housing Health and Safety Rating System (HHSRS).


    4.1.3          The provision of houses in multiple occupation across each district is detailed.



    4.2            Dwelling profile

    4.2.1          The latest Housing Investment Programme Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix for each
                   Local Authority provides details of the total number of dwellings in the area on 1 April


            33
                 Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance, Communities and Local Government, March 2007, p23


    60
               2006. Table 25 illustrates the number of dwellings, and the proportion this represents, in
               each district by ownership.              The lower half of the table compares public and private
               ownership. Private ownership includes owner occupation and private rented property.


4.2.2          East Lindsey contains the highest total number of dwellings and the highest proportion of
               private housing compared to the other districts surrounding it. The private sector housing
               is made up of 73.6% owner occupation and 15.5% private rented housing. This is the highest
               proportion of private rented accommodation in these five districts. East Lindsey also has
               the highest proportion in Lincolnshire of housing which is owned outright at 41.0% 34 .


4.2.3          West Lindsey and North Kesteven both also have high proportions of private housing. In
               contrast almost a quarter, 23.4%, of Lincoln’s housing stock is social housing.                     This
               suggests, but does not necessarily indicate, a greater concentration of less affluent
               households in Lincoln.


                                                          Table 25: Housing stock
                                                                                             North            West
                                         Boston          East Lindsey       Lincoln         Kesteven         Lindsey
             Ownership                 No.         %       No.       %      No.       %     No.        %    No.           %
             Local authority              0       0.0        0     0.0    8068    20.1     3857     8.7       0       0.0
             RSL                      5120    19.1        6154     9.8    1314      3.3     659     1.5    4293      11.3
             Other public              413        1.5      387     0.6        0     0.0    1100     2.5     267       0.7
             Total public             5263    20.6        6541    10.4    9382    23.4     5616    12.7    4560      12.0
             Private                 21312     79.4       56418    89.6   30672     76.6   38778    87.3   33436     88.0
             Total                   26845    100.0      62959    100.0   40054   100.0    44394   100.0   37996    100.0
               Source: HSSA 2006

4.2.4          All of the authorities except Lincoln and North Kesteven have undertaken Large Scale
               Voluntary Stock Transfer of council housing.               Boston has the highest proportion of RSL
               properties.


4.2.5          Table 26 and Table 27 show the type of housing within each district as proportions of the
               total housing stock (residents in caravans and mobile structures have not been included and
               residents living free are included in the private rented section).




        34
             Census Atlas 2005 Lincolnshire

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                            Table 26: Dwelling type by tenure
                                        Boston                              East Lindsey




                          occupied




                                                                 occupied
                            Owner


                                      Social
                                     rented
                                               Private
                                               rented


                                                         Total



                                                                             Social
                                                                            rented
                                                                                      Private
                                                                                      rented
                                                                   Owner




                                                                                                Total
         Type
        Detached            40.1        1.4       2.5 44.0         47.8        0.7       4.7 53.2
        Semi                19.8        9.5       2.5 31.8         17.5        5.2       4.1 26.8
        Terraced             8.6        4.3       1.8 14.7          6.5        2.2       2.2 10.9
        Flat                 1.7        4.5       2.7    8.9        1.8        2.7       4.4    8.9
        Shared dwelling      0.0        0.3       0.1    0.4        0.0        0.0       0.1    0.1
        Total               70.3       20.1       9.7 100.0        73.6       10.9      15.5 100.0
        Source: Census 2001



                                                 Table 27: Dwelling type by tenure
                                                     Lincoln                    North Kesteven                               West Lindsey
                          occupied




                                                                 occupied




                                                                                                        occupied
                                      Social




                                                                             Social




                                                                                                                    Social
                                     rented
                                               Private
                                               rented




                                                                            rented
                                                                                      Private
                                                                                      rented




                                                                                                                   rented
                                                                                                                              Private
                                                                                                                              rented
                            Owner




                                                         Total




                                                                                                                                         Total
                                                                   Owner




                                                                                                Total
                                                                                                          Owner
         Type
        Detached            17.8        0.9       1.1 19.8         50.5        0.7       3.7 54.9         46.7        0.7        3.9 51.3
        Semi                21.8        6.3       2.2 30.3         20.6        7.6       4.4 32.6         18.6        5.0        4.6 28.2
        Terraced            21.8        5.8       6.2 33.8          5.3        2.0       1.8    9.1        9.0        4.0        3.0 16.0
        Flat                 1.8        9.8       4.2 15.8          0.6        1.5       1.1    3.2        0.6        2.6        1.4     4.6
        Shared dwelling      0.0        0.1       0.2    0.3        0.0        0.0       0.0    0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0     0.0
        Total              63.2 22.9 14.0 100.0 77.1 11.9 11.0 100.0 74.9 12.3 12.8 100.0
        Source: Census 2001

4.2.6   The tables show a high proportion of detached housing in most districts. Lincoln is the
        exception. The national rate of detached housing is 23.0% and for Lincolnshire is 46.0%. In
        West Lindsey, East Lindsey and North Kesteven more than half the housing stock is
        detached properties with North Kesteven having the highest percentage, 54.9%.                                                   The
        predominance of detached housing and smaller number of terraced properties reflects the
        rural nature of these districts. Lincoln, an urban centre, has the largest proportion of
        terraced property and a below national average level of detached housing.


4.2.7   Higher incidence of detached properties reflected in the larger average number of rooms in
        most districts compared to the national average of 5.3. The average number of rooms for
        Lincolnshire is 5.6 and 5.5 in East Midlands.




62
               Table 28: Average number of rooms
          District                       Average number of
                                                    rooms
          Boston                                             5.4
          East Lindsey                                       5.6
          Lincoln                                            5.2
          North Kesteven                                     5.8
          West Lindsey                                       5.9
         Source: Census 2001

4.2.8    The distribution of each dwelling type across the HMAs is shown in Figure 2 to Figure 5.
         The rural areas have much greater incidence of detached properties with particular
         concentrations in the southeast corner of West Lindsey (Nettleham, Dunholme and Welton)
         and throughout East Lindsey (except along the major coastal settlements).       In contrast
         semi-detached dwellings and terraces are much more dispersed throughout the rural areas.
         There are small concentrations of flats/apartments in an east-west strip across the centre
         of Lincoln (no doubt serving in large part the student market), in Skegness and Mablethorpe
         (holiday homes) and parts of Boston (likely to be serving the casual labour market and/or
         international migrants).

                               Figure 2: Distribution of detached dwellings




         Source: 2001 Census




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                      Figure 3: Distribution of semi-detached dwellings




       Source: 2001 Census



                         Figure 4: Distribution of terraced dwellings




Source: 2001 Census




64
                                       Figure 5: Distribution of flats/apartments




Source: 2001 Census




4.3            Stock condition

4.3.1          The condition of housing stock within these five districts can be assessed by different
               measures ranging from minimum the fitness standard 35 to basic quality standards of
               acceptable accommodation including the Decent Homes Standard and assessment through
               the Housing Health and Safety Rating System 36 .

                         ‘A home should be above the current statutory minimum standard for
                         housing, in a reasonable state of repair, have reasonably modern facilities
                         and provide a reasonable degree of thermal comfort’ (HMA Guidance)

4.3.2          Table 29 provides details of unfit dwellings in each District as a proportion of total
               dwellings of that type.




        35
             Section 604, 1985 Housing Act amended by 1989 Local Government and Housing Act
        36
             The Communities and Local Government Housing Health and Safety Rating System 2005

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                                                    Table 29: Unfit dwellings
                                                            East                                  N.               West
                                          Boston         Lindsey            Lincoln         Kesteven            Lindsey
              Tenure               No.        %      No.         %     No.         %      No.         %       No.       %
              Local
              Authority               0      0.0        0      0.0        0      0.0         1      0.0           0    0.0
              RSL                   70       1.4       12      0.2        0      0.0         2      0.3           1    0.0
              Other public            0      0.0        0      0.0        0      0.0         0      0.0           0    0.0
              Private            1224        5.7    1313       2.3    1163       3.8      480       1.2    1879   37
                                                                                                                       5.6
              Total               1294       4.8    1325       2.1     1163       2.9     483       1.1      1880      4.9
            Source: HSSA 2006 for each Local Authority

4.3.3       West Lindsey with 4.9% followed by Boston with 4.8% have the highest levels of unfit
            dwellings in their districts. These levels are both higher than the national level of 4.2% and
            the regional level of 4.0%. North Kesteven has the lowest level of unfit dwellings with
            1.1%. The properties failing the fitness standard are virtually all located in the private
            sector.     In the social rented sector, the highest incidence of unfit dwellings is in RSL
            properties in Boston.


4.3.4       Analysing the characteristics of unfitness detailed in each districts private sector house
            condition survey showed unfit dwellings were likely to be:


                 In the private rented sector

                 Properties constructed pre 1919 – this often affected owner occupiers

                 Suffering from disrepair

                 Low income households

4.3.5       In addition in West Lindsey, converted flats were one of the major types of unfit dwelling.


4.3.6       Table 30 shows the estimated cost of making fit the unfit housing stock in the private
            sector in each district. The sums for East Lindsey, £20 million, and West Lindsey, £22.2
            million, represent considerable expenditure and around four times the estimated cost for
            the other districts.




        37
           HSSA 2006 section A 4 totals 1880 unfit dwellings. Private sector figure is total minus RSL and LA unfit dwellings
        figures.



66
                   Table 30: Cost of making fit unfit private
                                     sector
                 District                                         Cost (£)

                 Boston                                         5,300,000
                 East Lindsey                                 20,000,000
                 Lincoln                                        3,350,000
                 North Kesteven                                 5,400,000
                 West Lindsey                                 22,200,000
               Source: HSSA 2006 for each District

4.3.7          The government Decent Homes Standard provides a means of assessment going beyond the
               minimum fitness standard to ensure the property is also in a reasonable state of repair, has
               adequate modern facilities and provides a reasonable degree of warmth to its occupiers.
               Initially introduced as a requirement for all Local Authorities and Registered Social
               Landlords to make all their dwellings decent under these criteria by the end of 2010, the
               provision was extended in 2004 to include vulnerable people 38 in the private sector. The
               current requirement in the private sector 39 is for 65% of dwellings to be decent by 2006/7,
               70% by 2010/11 and 75% by 2020/21.


4.3.8          Table 31 provides details of the most recent data for each district on achievement of the
               decent homes standard. Information is taken from district housing strategies and the latest
               private sector house condition surveys. The private sector total includes Registered Social
               Landlord properties. For Boston, East Lindsey and Lincoln, the figures reflect the private
               sector house condition for April / May 2005 whereas for North Kesteven and West Lindsey
               their private sector house condition survey was carried out in 2003.                               The two year
               difference in date of recording may account for the higher percentages in North Kesteven
               and West Lindsey.




        38
             Vulnerable households are defined as households in receipt of a means tested or disability benefit
        39
             Public Sector Agreement (PSA) 7



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                                               Table 31: Non decent dwellings by tenure
                                                                East                                 N.            West
                                              Boston         Lindsey            Lincoln        Kesteven         Lindsey
                 Tenure                No.         %      No.        %      No.         %     No.      %     No.      %
                 Local
                 Authority                0      0.0        0      0.0     1465       18.0    714    18.5      0     0.0
                 RSL                   517      10.1      376      6.1      453       37.0   N/a            1800    38.0
                 Private
                 Sector 40            7084      26.8      N/k     N/k      8833       29.2   11550   31.0   14400   40.0
               Source: Housing Strategies for each district and Private Sector House Condition Surveys

4.3.9          West Lindsey has the highest proportion of non-decent dwellings with 40.0% failing to meet
               the Decent Homes Standard. These figures compare to the East Midlands 41 figures of 28.1%
               of private sector housing and 34.3% of social housing failing to meet the decent homes
               standard and a national figure of 33.1% of private sector dwellings failing to meet the
               standard. Only Boston (from the data available) has a level of decent homes for the private
               sector above the regional level.


4.3.10         The predominant reason for failure to meet the Decent Homes Standard was failure in
               thermal comfort. In Boston this accounted for 64.5% of failures and in Lincoln 20.3%. In
               the private rented sector, stock condition surveys noted many dwellings had poor heating.
               In the owner occupied sector, properties had poor heating and poor insulation. Disrepair
               was also a key factor. In West Lindsey the main focus of substantial disrepair was in rural
               areas, often in older dwellings where there were higher incomes and detached houses.


4.3.11         Projections of the percentage of homes in the private sector that are non-decent in each
               district has been mapped for 2007 42 and is shown in Figure 6.




        40
             Private sector stock includes Registered Social Landlord accommodation
        41
             East Midlands Regional Housing Strategy 2004 - 10
        42
             Housing Intelligence for the East Midlands



68
                                    Figure 6: Distribution of non-decent homes




            Source: Housing Intelligence for the East Midlands

4.3.12      Local Authority and Registered Social Landlord housing stock providers generally state
            confidence in achieving the Decent Homes Standard target in their properties by 2010.
            These assessments are based on an appraisal of expenditure requirements and a planned
            programme of action.


4.3.13      In the private sector however, an assessment of attaining the decent homes standard by
            2010 for households containing vulnerable people is more difficult to achieve. In Lincoln
            the private sector house condition survey in 2005 concluded that the target of 70.0% decent
            homes for vulnerable occupiers had already been reached. In Boston, the private sector
            house condition survey 2005 stated 31.1% of vulnerable households are living in non-decent
            homes suggesting that the target will be reached by 2010. In North Kesteven it is
            estimated 43 that 32.3% of vulnerable households occupy non-decent dwellings. Targeting
            these households is seen as a corporate priority.        In West Lindsey where 40.0% of the



     43
          North Kesteven Housing Strategy 2005 - 8

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         private sector is considered non-decent, the Housing Strategy 2006 – 8 sets a target of
         funding decent homes in the private sector occupied by vulnerable people. In East Lindsey
         the Housing Strategy 2005 – 10 recognises there are major housing quality issues in the
         district and they are targeting grant assistance to the private sector (see Table 32) in order
         to try and improve private sector housing condition.


4.3.14   Improving private sector housing operates through various approaches including advice,
         encouragement, grants and ultimately enforcement. Private sector renewal policies aim to
         encourage joint working between voluntary and statutory sectors to influence the private
         sector including combining new forms of assistance, for example equity release, with the
         more traditional grants scheme.


4.3.15   An indication of the level of activity towards meeting the decent home standard in the
         private sector is shown in Table 32. This illustrates trends in recent and planned levels of
         private sector renewal assistance through grants; owner-occupiers principally receive
         these. Figures for 2006/07 and 2007/08 are planned expenditure. In order to improve
         house conditions to meet the decent homes standard targets Lincoln has allocated
         considerable resources in 2006/07, £1,057,000, and 2007/08, £801,000. East Lindsey has
         almost doubled resources on private sector renewal assistance for 2006 / 07, £686,000,
         compared to 2005/06, £354,000. West Lindsey with the highest absolute number of non-
         decent dwellings in the private sector does not follow this pattern.


                                Table 32: Private sector renewal assistance
                                                  East                           N.            West
                                Boston         Lindsey          Lincoln    Kesteven         Lindsey
          Year
          2002/03               218000         449000           575000          163000       199000
          2003/04               164000         158000           591000          113000       185000
          2004/05               266000         597000           363000          100000       264000
          2005/06               101000         354000           508000           56000       226000
          2006/07               283000         686000        1057000            165000       240000
          2007/08               253000         269000           801000          218000       240000
         Source: HSSA 2006 for each district

4.3.16   The Housing Health and Safety Rating System (HHSRS) is an alternative method to replace
         the unfit dwelling criteria for assessing the quality of current housing stock in an area. The
         process identifies defects within a dwelling and scores the potential risk of this hazard to
         the health and safety of persons using the building.       Key hazards considered within an
         assessment include the risk of falls, hot surfaces and materials positioned inappropriately,
         above average risk of fire, damp and mould growth and excessive cold. Unlike the fitness



70
            standard therefore the HHSRS takes into account the likely risk to possible occupiers of the
            building. Housing stock which is classed as being subject to a Category 1 Hazard require a
            mandatory response from a Local Authority as they are considered to have an unacceptably
            high risk of serious injury or mortality.


4.3.17      Table 33 details the number of dwellings and percentage this represents of private sector
            housing stock subjected to Category 1 Hazards in each District. For Districts where local
            authority stock transfer has taken place, Boston, East Lindsey and West Lindsey, these
            figures relate to all housing stock. The percentages roughly reflect a doubling of response
            required compared to the estimated level of unfitness in a district (see Table 29).


                          Table 33: Dwellings with Category 1 Hazards HHSRS
                                                                    No.                %

              Boston                                               3043            11.4
              East Lindsey                                          N/k             N/k
              Lincoln                                              2060              6.8
              North Kesteven                                       1240            3.0 44
              West Lindsey                                         3720            10.0
            Source: Most recent Private Sector Housing Condition Survey for each District

4.3.18      The housing stock in Boston is considered to have the highest proportion of properties with
            a mandatory hazard. Further analysis of these properties showed the main hazards related
            to excessive cold and falls on stairs, with private rented and pre-1919 dwellings being the
            most likely to require action.


4.3.19      In Lincoln the most common serious hazards were falls on the level, falls on stairs, fire and
            excessive cold.        Pre-1919 dwellings, private rented stock and converted flats had the
            highest level of serious hazards. In terms of location of properties with serious hazards,
            both Park and Central sub-area and the South sub-area of the survey showed a higher than
            average level of properties at 7.7%.


4.3.20      The Private Sector Housing Stock Condition Surveys for North Kesteven and West Lindsey
            were carried out at an earlier date than those for Boston and Lincoln. In 2003 it was
            estimated that the main serious hazards in the housing stock of North Kesteven were
            excessive cold and falls on the level.


4.3.21      In West Lindsey the most common serious hazards were damp and mould growth and
            excessive cold. The highest proportion of properties within each tenure with a serious


     44
          This is an expected figure detailed in North Kesteven Housing Strategy

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            hazard were found in the private rented sector, with a significant number in the rural area
            of West Lindsey.


4.3.22      Projections of the percentage of homes in the private sector with a category 1 hazard in
            each district has been mapped for 2007 45 and is shown in Figure 7.

                                         Figure 7: Distribution of Category 1 hazards




     45
          Housing Intelligence for the East Midlands



72
4.4            Shared housing and communal establishments

4.4.1          Shared housing and communal establishments include homeless hostels, older people’s
               specialist accommodation and student housing.


4.4.2          There is also a statutory requirement 46 for local authorities to inspect, register and license
               properties which are three storeys and above with five or more bed spaces. There are
               minimum conditions to address including fire safety requirements.                Other houses in
               multiple occupation (HMOs) do not currently require a license.


4.4.3          Table 34 details the number of houses in multiple occupation in each district. Lincoln, as
               an urban centre, has a significant number of HMOs with 2,368 representing 7.8% of total
               dwellings. This is more than double the national average of 3.0%. Of these HMOs in Lincoln,
               it is expected that 500 will be subject to the mandatory licensing compared to 2 in West
               Lindsey.


                            Table 34: Number of houses in multiple occupation
                                                                  No.              Registered

                Boston                                            594                       0
                East Lindsey                                      N/k                     N/k
                Lincoln                                          2368                     N/k
                North Kesteven                                      16                      0
                West Lindsey                                      240                     N/k
               Source: HSSA 2006


4.5            Over-crowding and under occupation

4.5.1          The ‘occupancy rating’ within the 2001 Census provides a measure of under-occupancy and
               over-crowding. For example a value of -1 implies that there is one room too few and that
               there is overcrowding in the household.            It relates the actual number of rooms to the
               number of rooms 'required' by the members of the household (based on an assessment of
               the relationship between household members, their ages and gender).


4.5.2          Table 35 presents the occupancy rating for each district within the Coastal and Central
               HMAs.      It is clear, with the exception of Lincoln, that districts within the Coastal and
               Central HMAs have relatively high proportions of households living in under-occupied
               properties. 63.8% of properties in West Lindsey have two extra rooms for the household




        46
             Housing Act 2004

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     sizes occupying them.      Given the high proportions of detached properties within the
     housing stock this is not unexpected.

                                  Table 35: Occupancy rating (%)
                          Occupancy     Occupancy     Occupancy      Occupancy      Occupancy
                          rating of +   rating of +   rating of 0     rating of -   rating of -
      Local authority      2 or more              1                            1      2 or less
      Boston                     55.4         26.3            14.1           3.2           1.0
      East Lindsey               56.5         27.6            12.1           3.1           0.7
      Lincoln                    47.7         25.2            21.2           4.4           1.4
      North Kesteven             62.5         25.8             9.5           1.8           0.4
      West Lindsey               63.8         23.8            10.1           1.8           0.4
      East Midlands              54.7         26.0          14.9             3.4           1.1
      England                    49.1         25.5          18.2             5.0           2.1
     Source: 2001 Census UV59

                                          Access to housing
               Older people are maintaining independence but under occupying homes
               Forces market – sale of stock e.g. Coningsby – expansion after RAF housing
               stock disposal
               The push for density impacts upon family housing - high rise/3 storey and
               car density are not always practical
               Older persons housing – future need for facilities – need to build adaptable
               properties – strong desire to remain in their own home with care
               Older people’s expectations are for high quality, high standards, but as
               owners not renting sheltered housing




74
5                 THE ACTIVE MARKET
                                        Table 36: Summary of active market datasets 47
                 Step                                Principal data sources             Data items
                 3.1 The cost of buying or          Land Registry, Estate &             Average and lower quartile
                 renting a property                 Letting Agents, Rent                prices and rents by tenure,
                                                    Service, HSSA                       sizes, types and location
                 3.2 Affordability of housing       Outputs of Step 3.1 and             Mapping of which areas
                                                    Step 1.4                            and property types are
                                                                                        most and least affordable
                 3.3 Overcrowding and               Census, Local surveys               Dwelling and household
                 under-occupation                                                       size, overcrowding, under-
                                                                                        occupancy
                 3.4 Vacancies, turnover            Outputs from Step 2.1,              Vacancy rates by tenure,
                 rates and available supply         NROSH, HSSA returns,                size, type and location,
                 by tenure                          Council tax register, LA/HA         transactions data,
                                                    records, Land Registry              turnover, and an indication
                                                    transactions, Estate and            of available supply by
                                                    letting agents, Survey of           tenure, type, size and
                                                    Mortgage Lenders                    location


    5.1            Owner occupation

    5.1.1          Private ownership of housing accounts for approximately 70% of household tenures across
                   the Coastal and Central HMAs, the distribution of which is presented in Figure 8 and Figure
                   9. The dominance of owner-occupied tenures is clear, with relatively high proportions in
                   virtually all Census Output Areas.




            47
                 Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance, Communities and Local Government, March 2007, p26

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                Figure 8: Spatial distribution of households in owner occupation




        Source: 2001 Census

5.1.2   Higher proportions are visible in the settlement of Caistor and immediate west; within the
        settlements north east of Lincoln, notably, Nettleham, Welton, Scothern and also within
        the settlements lying adjacent to the coast in East Lindsey. Lower proportions are visible
        as pockets within the main settlements, notably Lincoln, Gainsborough and Skegness and
        also within some of the larger more rural Output Areas.




76
             Figure 9: Spatial distribution of households in owner occupation: Lincoln




         Source: 2001 Census

5.1.3    Closer examination of the pattern of owner-occupation in Lincoln shows that areas to the
         west of the city have higher proportions of owner-occupation relative to the east. Lower
         proportions are visible within the city centre.


5.1.4    Figure 10 and Figure 11 present the distribution of house prices based upon postcode sector
         geography.     Prices have risen considerably in both the Coastal and Central HMA. The
         western side of the Central HMA contain slightly higher prices than the Coastal HMA and
         that within the central adjoining area a band from Caistor in the north stretching through
         to Bardney and then Woodhall Spa in the centre mark the highest priced sectors. The
         settlements of Spilsby, East Keal, Partney and Hagworthingham are exceptions to this
         representing higher priced areas within the Coastal HMA (East Lindsey).         The coastal
         settlements of Mablethorpe, Sutton-on-Sea, Chapel St Leonards and Skegness are visibly
         lower in price than areas further inland.


5.1.5    In Lincoln, postcode sectors to the north and west of the city are clearly higher priced than
         to the south and east as are the areas of Birchwood and Boultham to the southwest.




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     Figure 10: Mean overall house prices October – December 2006 by postcode sector




      Source: Land Registry


 Figure 11: Mean overall house prices October – December 2006 by postcode sector: Lincoln




      Source: Land Registry




78
         Property price change

5.1.6    The mean overall prices within the Central and Coastal Housing Market Areas (HMAs) for the
         period October to December 2006 are presented in Table 37. The highest overall mean
         price is for North Kesteven at £163,752 almost £30,000 higher than the lowest mean overall
         price of £133,970 in Lincoln. Both the Central and Coastal HMAs have experienced rapid
         price growth since 2001. Table 37 shows that from 2001 this growth has been higher than
         that experienced across the East Midlands overall. Mean overall prices in West Lindsey
         increased the most on the same quarter in the previous year (14.8%). West Lindsey also
         experienced the highest proportional growth over this period, with a price increase of
         123.9%.

                       Table 37: Mean house price and five-year change
          Local Authority          Average price           Increase on       Increase on
                                       October –              October –        October –
                                      December               December     December 2001
                                        2006 (£)               2005 (%)              (%)
          Boston                          138,674                  4.9              94.5
          East Lindsey                    153,639                  5.0              97.6
          Lincoln                         133,970                  2.9             111.0
          North Kesteven                  163,752                  3.0              90.2
          West Lindsey                    159,938                 14.8             123.9
          East Midlands                   163,225                  4.9              85.2
         Source: Land Registry

5.1.7    Figure 12 and Figure 13 present spatially the change in prices experienced across the two
         HMAs between the fourth quarter in 2004 and 2006. It is clear that there is variation in
         price change across the HMAs.




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            Figure 12: House price change (%): Oct–Dec 2004 to Oct–Dec 2006




     Source: Land Registry


        Figure 13: House price change Lincoln (%):Oct–Dec 2004 to Oct–Dec 2006




     Source: Land Registry




80
5.1.8    Year on year mean property price increases are shown in Table 38.                        All districts
         experienced the highest price increases over the year 2002 with Lincoln, North Kesteven,
         and West Lindsey experiencing price rises of over 30%. All districts had price growth above
         that experienced across the region in 2002. Prices have risen in diminished amounts across
         all districts through 2003 and 2004. However, in 2005 Boston and West Lindsey experienced
         a decrease in mean overall price of 2.1% and 4.1% respectively. 2006 has seen increases
         within all districts. As presented above West Lindsey experienced an increase in price well
         above that experienced within the other districts in the Coastal and Central HMAs and
         across the region as a whole within this year.

                    Table 38: Mean annual house price change Oct–Dec 2002 to Oct–Dec 2006
                               2002               2003               2004           2005             2006
          Area                  £        %        £        %         £      %       £        %       £       %

          Boston           21041     29.5     19439     21.1      23202   20.8   -2813     -2.1   6519      4.9

          East Lindsey     22428     28.9     23992     24.0      16473   13.3   5663      4.0    7347      5.0

          Lincoln          21053     33.2     18613     22.0      21307   20.7   5664      4.6    3829      2.9
          North
          Kesteven         29628     34.4     16769     14.5      24044   18.1   2401      1.5    4796      3.0
          West
          Lindsey          27763     38.9     28134     28.4      17989   14.1   -6010     -4.1   20644   14.8
          East
          Midlands         23990     27.2     22016     19.6      18145   13.5   3278      2.2    7678      4.9
         Source: Land Registry

5.1.9    Quarterly mean property price change for districts in the Coastal and Central HMAs is
         illustrated graphically in Figure 14 and Figure 15. The proportional changes match that
         which would be expected. Proportionally, prices can be seen to rise in the summer and
         diminish over the winter. For all districts the quarter January to March 2005 stands out as
         a period in which prices dropped.             It is also apparent that whilst West Lindsey has
         experienced the greatest overall price increase 2001 to 2006, it has also incurred the
         greatest variability in price change over the period.




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                                       Figure 14: Quarterly mean price changes Coastal HMA 2001 – 2006 (%)
  14.0

  12.0

  10.0

   8.0

   6.0

   4.0

   2.0

   0.0

  -2.0

  -4.0

  -6.0

  -8.0
                        Apr-Jun 2002




                                                                                          Apr-Jun 2003




                                                                                                                                                            Apr-Jun 2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Apr-Jun 2005




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Apr-Jun 2006
                                         Jul-Sep 2002


                                                        Oct-Dec 2002




                                                                                                         Jul-Sep 2003


                                                                                                                        Oct-Dec 2003




                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-Sep 2004


                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct-Dec 2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-Sep 2005


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct-Dec 2005




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-Sep 2006


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-Dec 2006
         Jan-Mar 2002




                                                                       Jan-Mar 2003




                                                                                                                                         Jan-Mar 2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-Mar 2005




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-Mar 2006
                                                                                                                                       Boston                                     East Lindsey




                  Source: Land Registry

                                       Figure 15: Quarterly mean price changes Central HMA 2001 – 2006 (%)
  20.0

  18.0

  16.0

  14.0

  12.0

  10.0

   8.0

   6.0

   4.0

   2.0

   0.0

  -2.0

  -4.0

  -6.0

  -8.0
                        Apr-Jun 2002




                                                                                          Apr-Jun 2003




                                                                                                                                                            Apr-Jun 2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Apr-Jun 2005




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Apr-Jun 2006
                                         Jul-Sep 2002




                                                                                                         Jul-Sep 2003




                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-Sep 2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-Sep 2005




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-Sep 2006
                                                        Oct-Dec 2002




                                                                                                                        Oct-Dec 2003




                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct-Dec 2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct-Dec 2005




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-Dec 2006
         Jan-Mar 2002




                                                                       Jan-Mar 2003




                                                                                                                                         Jan-Mar 2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-Mar 2005




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-Mar 2006




                                                                                      Lincoln                                                           North Kesteven                                                                 West Lindsey




                  Source: Land Registry

5.1.10            Property prices over the five years since October – December 2001 are shown by property
                  type in Figure 16, Figure 17, Figure 18, Figure 19, and Figure 20.




82
ref:
print:
                                                                                                                  0
                                                                                                                      20000
                                                                                                                              40000
                                                                                                                                      60000
                                                                                                                                              80000
                                                                                                                                                      100000
                                                                                                                                                               120000
                                                                                                                                                                        140000
                                                                                                                                                                                 160000
                                                                                                                                                                                          180000
                                                                                                                                                                                                   200000
                                                                                                                                                                                                             220000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        20000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                40000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        60000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                80000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        100000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 120000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          140000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   160000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            180000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     200000
                                                                                                   Oct-Dec 2001                                                                                                                                                                                                      Oct-Dec 2001


                                                                                                   Jan-Mar 2002                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-Mar 2002




30-Jan-08
                                                                                                   Apr-Jun 2002                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-Jun 2002


                                                                                                   Jul-Sep 2002                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-Sep 2002


                                                                                                   Oct-Dec 2002                                                                                                                                                                                                      Oct-Dec 2002




                                                         Source: Land Registry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Source: Land Registry




                                                                                 Detached
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Detached
                                                                                                   Jan-Mar 2003                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-Mar 2003


                                                                                                   Apr-Jun 2003                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-Jun 2003


                                                                                                   Jul-Sep 2003                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-Sep 2003


                                                                                                   Oct-Dec 2003                                                                                                                                                                                                      Oct-Dec 2003




                                                                                 Semi-detached
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Semi-detached
                                                                                                   Jan-Mar 2004                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-Mar 2004


                                                                                                   Apr-Jun 2004                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-Jun 2004




                                                                                 Terraced
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Terraced




h:\projects\lincolnshire\reports\final report v4.3.doc
                                                                                                   Jul-Sep 2004                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-Sep 2004


                                                                                                   Oct-Dec 2004                                                                                                                                                                                                      Oct-Dec 2004


                                                                                                   Jan-Mar 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-Mar 2005




                                                                                 Flat/maisonette
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Flat/maisonette



                                                                                                   Apr-Jun 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-Jun 2005


                                                                                                   Jul-Sep 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-Sep 2005


                                                                                                   Oct-Dec 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                      Oct-Dec 2005




                                                                                 Overall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Overall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Figure 16: Quarterly mean price Boston 2001 – 2006 (£)




                                                                                                   Jan-Mar 2006                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-Mar 2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Figure 17: Quarterly mean price East Lindsey 2001 – 2006 (£)


                                                                                                   Apr-Jun 2006                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-Jun 2006


                                                                                                   Jul-Sep 2006                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-Sep 2006


                                                                                                   Oct-Dec 2006                                                                                                                                                                                                      Oct-Dec 2006




                                     83
84
                                                              0
                                                                  20000
                                                                          40000
                                                                                  60000
                                                                                          80000
                                                                                                  100000
                                                                                                           120000
                                                                                                                    140000
                                                                                                                             160000
                                                                                                                                      180000
                                                                                                                                               200000
                                                                                                                                                        220000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               20000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       40000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               60000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       80000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               100000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        120000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 140000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          160000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   180000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            200000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     220000
                                               Oct-Dec 2001                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-Dec 2001


                                               Jan-Mar 2002                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-Mar 2002


                                               Apr-Jun 2002                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-Jun 2002


                                               Jul-Sep 2002                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-Sep 2002


                                               Oct-Dec 2002                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-Dec 2002




                             Detached
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Detached




     Source: Land Registry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Source: Land Registry
                                               Jan-Mar 2003                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-Mar 2003


                                               Apr-Jun 2003                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-Jun 2003


                                               Jul-Sep 2003                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-Sep 2003


                                               Oct-Dec 2003                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-Dec 2003




                             Semi-detached
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Semi-detached
                                               Jan-Mar 2004                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-Mar 2004


                                               Apr-Jun 2004                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-Jun 2004




                             Terraced
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Terraced
                                               Jul-Sep 2004                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-Sep 2004


                                               Oct-Dec 2004                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-Dec 2004


                                               Jan-Mar 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-Mar 2005




                             Flat/maisonette
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Flat/maisonette



                                               Apr-Jun 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-Jun 2005


                                               Jul-Sep 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-Sep 2005


                                               Oct-Dec 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-Dec 2005




                             Overall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Overall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Figure 18: Quarterly mean price Lincoln 2001 – 2006 (£)




                                               Jan-Mar 2006                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-Mar 2006
                                                                                                                                                                 Figure 19: Quarterly mean price North Kesteven 2001 – 2006 (£)

                                               Apr-Jun 2006                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-Jun 2006


                                               Jul-Sep 2006                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-Sep 2006


                                               Oct-Dec 2006                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-Dec 2006
                                                    Figure 20: Quarterly mean price West Lindsey 2001 – 2006 (£)
  240000

  220000

  200000

  180000

  160000

  140000

  120000

  100000

  80000

  60000

  40000

  20000

         0
                                           Apr-Jun 2002




                                                                                                         Apr-Jun 2003




                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-Jun 2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Apr-Jun 2005




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-Jun 2006
                                                          Jul-Sep 2002




                                                                                                                        Jul-Sep 2003




                                                                                                                                                                                        Jul-Sep 2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-Sep 2005




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul-Sep 2006
             Oct-Dec 2001




                                                                           Oct-Dec 2002




                                                                                                                                       Oct-Dec 2003




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-Dec 2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Oct-Dec 2005




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Oct-Dec 2006
                            Jan-Mar 2002




                                                                                          Jan-Mar 2003




                                                                                                                                                        Jan-Mar 2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-Mar 2005




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan-Mar 2006
                                                                         Detached                              Semi-detached                                           Terraced                        Flat/maisonette                                             Overall




             Source: Land Registry



5.1.11       Table 39 to Table 43 contain the mean overall price for the October – December quarter in
             both 2001 and 2006 and the mean property price for each property type as a ratio to the
             overall property price for October – December quarter in both 2001 and 2006. The change
             over that five-year period is shown in the final column of each table.


5.1.12       At October – December 2006 the ratio of detached prices across the districts in the Coastal
             and Central HMAs lie between 1.20x and 1.46x the overall mean price. Detached properties
             are priced highest in Lincoln relative to the overall mean price. It is clear from the ratios
             of other property types (the prices of which lie below the overall mean price in each
             district) that detached properties dominate the sales of properties across the HMAs (44.0%
             of sales overall). Detached properties have a dominant effect on the overall mean price in
             each area. Proportionally though, detached properties have experienced less price growth
             than the other property types.                                                                                                           It is clear that detached properties have become less
             expensive relative to the overall mean price (the exception to which is Boston where
             detached properties have increased in price slightly relative to the mean overall property
             price). West Lindsey has seen the price of flats/maisonettes grow significantly over the
             five-year period (234.0%), although the sales of flats represent a very small proportion of
             sales (1.4%).



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          Table 39: Average 5-year house price and price ratio change by type in Boston
                                            Ratio to overall   Ratio to overall
                                                in October-        in October-         Five-year
                          Five-year price        December           December      change in ratio
                             increase (%)              2001               2006         to overall
      Detached                       94.9              1.29               1.30              0.8%
      Semi-detached                113.9               0.81               0.89              9.9%
      Terraced                     130.1               0.62               0.74             19.4%
      Flat/maisonett
      e                            123.7               0.51               0.59             15.7%
      Overall                        94.5                  -                  -                 -
     Source: Land Registry



                Table 40: Average 5-year house price and price ratio change by type in
                                            East Lindsey
                                            Ratio to overall   Ratio to overall
                                                in October-        in October-         Five-year
                          Five-year price        December           December      change in ratio
                             increase (%)              2001               2006         to overall
      Detached                       94.0              1.23               1.20             -2.4%
      Semi-detached                117.9               0.78               0.86             10.3%
      Terraced                     113.7               0.68               0.73              7.4%
      Flat/maisonett
      e                            104.8               0.59               0.61              3.4%
      Overall                        97.6                  -                  -                 -
     Source: Land Registry



          Table 41: Average 5-year house price and price ratio change by type in Lincoln
                                            Ratio to overall   Ratio to overall
                                                in October-        in October-         Five-year
                          Five-year price        December           December      change in ratio
                             increase (%)              2001               2006         to overall
      Detached                       94.3              1.59               1.46             -8.2%
      Semi-detached                111.0               0.96               0.96              0.0%
      Terraced                     123.3               0.77               0.81              5.2%
      Flat/maisonett
      e                            147.4               0.73               0.86             17.8%
      Overall                      111.0                   -                  -                 -
     Source: Land Registry




86
                    Table 42: Average 5-year house price and price ratio change by type in
                                               North Kesteven
                                                      Ratio to overall   Ratio to overall
                                                          in October-        in October-         Five-year
                                Five-year price            December           December      change in ratio
                                   increase (%)                  2001               2006         to overall
          Detached                            86.1                1.21              1.18             -2.5%
          Semi-detached                     120.4                 0.70              0.81             15.7%
          Terraced                          115.0                 0.66              0.74             12.1%
          Flat/maisonett
          e                                   79.5                0.68              0.64             -5.9%
          Overall                             90.2                   -                  -                 -
         Source: Land Registry



                    Table 43: Average 5-year house price and price ratio change by type in
                                                West Lindsey
                                                      Ratio to overall   Ratio to overall
                                                          in October-        in October-         Five-year
                                Five-year price            December           December      change in ratio
                                   increase (%)                  2001               2006         to overall
          Detached                          113.4                 1.42              1.35             -4.9%
          Semi-detached                     128.6                 0.77              0.79              2.6%
          Terraced                          144.0                 0.60              0.66             10.0%
          Flat/maisonett
          e                                 234.0                 0.46              0.69             50.0%
          Overall                           123.9                    -                  -                 -
         Source: Land Registry

5.1.13   It is clear that in both the Coastal and Central Housing Market Areas that prices for all
         property types have increased dramatically since 2001, but that since 2005 prices have
         remained relatively stable not experiencing that which occurred in 2002, 2003 and 2004
         (with the exception of West Lindsey). The effect of this price growth in all areas is to
         stretch the incomes of households living within each district. The relative affordability of
         property types and location are examined in more detail in section 5.4.


         Entry-level property price

5.1.14   In order to assess affordability, the price of an entry-level property is determined using the
         most recent quarter’s data from the Land Registry. At the time of writing this was October
         – December 2006. The entry-level price is that which a household entering the market can
         be expected to pay on average.



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5.1.15   In line with Communities and Local Government guidance, the entry-level property is
         calculated using the 25th percentile price of all properties sold. The results for the districts
         of the Coastal and Central HMAs are presented in Table 44. North Kesteven has the highest
         entry-level price (£123,000), followed by East Lindsey (£115,000). The three other districts
         are very close in price ranging from £99,477 to £103,000.

                     Table 44: Entry-level property price
                                    Entry-level property price Oct–
          Local Authority                             Dec 2006 (£)
          Boston                                             102,000
          East Lindsey                                       115,000
          Lincoln                                             99,477
          North Kesteven                                     123,000
          West Lindsey                                       103,000
          East Midlands                                     117,998
         Source: Land Registry

5.1.16   It should be borne in mind that across each of the districts in different locations entry-level
         property prices will vary. For example within the more remote rural areas, where the
         proportion of detached properties is likely to be higher the price of an entry-level property
         is likely to be higher.



5.2      Private rented sector

5.2.1    Private rents are a function of the price of market housing i.e. landlords charge more when
         the acquisitive price of a given property is of a greater cost to them, and demand is such
         that they are able to. Given market conditions at the present time, therefore, costs will be
         high for households wishing or requiring rent in the private sector within the Coastal and
         Central HMAs.


5.2.2    The private rented sector represents the tenure of approximately 13% of households across
         the Coastal and Central HMA. The proportion is likely to have increased over the last five
         years given significant increases in the purchasing price of entry-level properties over this
         period and also the emergence of buy-to-let investment.


5.2.3    Multiple sectors of private renting are likely to have emerged operating from areas
         commanding the lowest to the highest charges in rent. The seasonal nature of employment
         within tourism and agriculture within both HMAs will support demand for private rented
         accommodation.




88
5.2.4    Figure 21 and Figure 22 present the spatial distribution of households in private rented
         tenures.



          Figure 21: Spatial distribution of households in private rented accommodation




         Source: 2001 Census




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                 Figure 22: Spatial distribution of households in private rented accommodation




               Source: 2001 Census

5.2.5          Table 45 presents the results of an online private sector rent survey 48 conducted in April
               2006. The monthly charge for a single bedroom property varies between £236 per month in
               North Kesteven to £460 per month in Lincoln, whilst two-bedroom properties vary between
               £401 in Boston and £486 in Lincoln.

                          Table 45: Mean private sector rents (£ per month)
                Local                             1         2         3   4 or more
                Authority                   bedroom   bedroom   bedroom   bedrooms
                Boston*                         351       401       491        650
                East Lindsey                    325       440       625           -
                Lincoln                         460       486       605        588
                North Kesteven                  236       474         -           -
                West Lindsey                    360       423       563        944
               Source: Online Private Sector Rent Survey, April 2006, * Boston local survey 2006

5.2.6          Figure 23 shows the distribution of second home ownership in the two HMAs. There are
               particular concentrated pockets where second home ownership is more prevalent, e.g.
               along the coast from Skegness to Mablethorpe and then dotted around the districts of


        48
             www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk
             www.email4property.co.uk
             www.primelocation.com



90
            Boston, East Lindsey, North Kesteven and West Lindsey. Despite the growth of the student
            market in Lincoln, there does not as yet appear to be a disproportionate growth of buy-to-
            let properties in the city. However, as was commented upon at the stakeholder day, the
            issue of “family flight”, with its corresponding impact upon schools and local services, is a
            common one in areas where there has been growth in student numbers and so the impact
            needs to be monitored.

                           Figure 23: Spatial distribution of second home ownership




            Source: 2001 Census


5.3          Social housing

5.3.1       In economic terms the role of the social sector is to provide subsidised, affordable housing
            to those households unable to afford housing in the private sector. Rents are therefore
            significantly lower than in the private sector, and indeed should remain so in order to fulfil
            this role.     Places are allocated through an administrative system rather than through
            market mechanisms, with the result that imbalances between supply and demand are
            evident in a rising waiting list rather than higher prices. 49




        49
           There may be other contributory factors to a rising waiting list, such as changes to marketing of social housing or
        eligibility rules.

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        Social renting

5.3.2   Social renting tenures consisting of households renting from the Council (Lincoln and North
        Kesteven) and those renting from a Housing Association represent varying proportions of
        households across the Coastal and Central HMAs. In Lincoln and Boston 22.9% and 20.9% of
        households reside in social rented accommodation whilst within the three remaining
        districts provision is significantly lower; East Lindsey 10.9%, North Kesteven 11.9% and West
        Lindsey 12.3%. The stock of social rented properties has declined since 1979 with a large
        proportion sold under the Right-to-Buy initiative.     Table 46 presents Right-to-Buy sales
        between the period 1979 to 1999 and the proportion of sales over that period based on
        current stock. Large Scale Voluntary Transfer saw the council stock of Boston, East Lindsey
        and West Lindsey sold at this point.     Right-to-Buy sales continue in Lincoln and North
        Kesteven as presented in the trend chart Figure 24. Figure 25 and Figure 26 present the
        spatial distribution of households in social rented accommodation as collated in 2001.

                           Table 46: Volume of Right-To-Buy sales
         Local Authority       RTB sales 1979 to 1999        Proportion of current
                                                               social housing stock
         Boston                                 1,681                         30.4
         East Lindsey                           1,870                         28.6
         Lincoln                                2,671                         28.5
         North Kesteven                         1,584                         35.1
         West Lindsey                           1,725                         37.8
        Source: DCLG Live Table 648




92
                       Figure 24: Right-to-Buy sales Lincoln and North Kesteven
  250




  200




  150




  100




  50




   0
         1999/2000       2000/01        2001/02        2002/03              2003/04   2004/05   2005/06

                                           Lincoln               North Kesteven




         Source: DCLG Live Table 648



                      Figure 25: Spatial distribution of social renting households




         Source: 2001 Census




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                 Figure 26: Spatial distribution of social renting households: Lincoln




        Source: 2001 Census

5.3.3   Figures for 2006 place the average local authority rents in Lincoln and North Kesteven at
        £47.50 and £50.06 below that for the East Midlands as a whole (£50.76) and considerably
        below that for England overall (£57.76), which includes the higher rents found in London
        and the South East. Local Authority rents in Lincoln and North Kesteven have risen by
        £17.03 and £16.18 since 1996 and similar to increases across the region and England as
        shown below. In proportional terms Local Authority rents have increased by approximately
        50.0%.




94
                                      Figure 27: Local authority rents (£)
  60.00



  55.00



  50.00



  45.00



  40.00



  35.00



  30.00



  25.00



  20.00
          1996      1997     1998      1999       2000        2001       2002        20036       2004   2005   2006

                                     North Kesteven      Lincoln     East Midlands     England




          Source: DCLG Live Table 702

5.3.4     RSL rents are significantly higher, with the average in 2006 across the Coastal and Central
          HMAs at £55.90. It is clear that while rents have increased between 1997 and 2006 that
          there is some variation between districts.                  RSL rents drop significantly in Boston, East
          Lindsey and West Lindsey in 1999 and 2000. These price drops coincide with the transfer of
          local authority stock. RSL rents in North Kesteven and Lincoln are as a result significantly
          higher than those in the other HMA districts. The average rents in North Kesteven are
          comparable with that across England as a whole, whilst those in Lincoln are more in line
          with that across the region.


5.3.5     It is apparent when comparing the RSL rents in Lincoln and North Kesteven with their Local
          Authority rents that significant gap between remains throughout the time series with little
          convergence or divergence of the averages.




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                                                 Figure 28: RSL rents (£)
  70.00



  65.00



  60.00



  55.00



  50.00



  45.00



  40.00



  35.00



  30.00
           1997         1998      1999        2000      2001         2002         2003       2004          2005        2006

                      Boston   East Lindsey   Lincoln   North Kesteven      West Lindsey   East Midlands     England




          Source: DCLG Live Table 704


          Homelessness

5.3.6     Legislation places a responsibility upon Local Authorities to provide housing for individuals
          or households who are involuntarily homeless and in priority need. Figure 29 presents the
          trend in the number of households across the Coastal and Central HMAs that were accepted
          as meeting these criteria, whilst Table 47 presents the latest figures for acceptances by
          district.




96
                                        Figure 29: Homeless households
  450



  400



  350



  300



  250



  200



  150



  100



   50



    0
              2002 - 2003                2003 - 2004                 2004 - 2005                   2005 - 2006

                               Boston   East Lindsey   Lincoln   North Kesteven     West Lindsey




         Source: DCLG Live Table 627



                            Table 47: Homelessness acceptances 2005 - 2006
                                            Number accepted as                    Rate per thousand of
          Local Authority                            homeless                               population
          Boston                                                   68                                  2.8
          East Lindsey                                            100                                  1.7
          Lincoln                                                 163                                  4.4
          North Kesteven                                           59                                  1.4
          West Lindsey                                             78                                  2.3
         Source: DCLG Live Table 627

5.3.7    Lincoln has the highest incidence of households being accepted as homeless over the year
         2005 – 2006 at 4.4 per thousand of the population. However, it is clear that East Lindsey
         has in the past had by far the highest incidence of homelessness. The information for
         Boston, North Kesteven and West Lindsey appears relatively consistent over the time period
         presented. There is an increasing acceptance among policy-makers and practitioners that
         homelessness may be expressed in a lack of permanent or secure accommodation with
         tenancy rights, rather than only a lack of shelter. This often affects particular groups such
         as young people and women fleeing domestic violence.




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5.4     Affordability

5.4.1   The yearly and monthly earnings that would be required for a mortgage on an entry-level
        property, as priced are shown below in Table 48.        Earnings refer to gross income and
        assume a 100% mortgage of 3.5x salary for single income households, and 2.9x salary for
        two income households, as per the guidance.

                   Table 48: Required gross income for entry-level mortgage (£)
                                        Single income                  Two income
         Local Authority               Yearly        Monthly          Yearly      Monthly
         Boston                        29,143           2,429         35,172        2,931
         East Lindsey                  32,857           2,738         39,655        3,305
         Lincoln                       28,422           2,369         34,302        2,859
         North Kesteven                35,143           2,929         42,414        3,535
         West Lindsey                  29,429           2,452         35,517        2,960
         East Midlands                33,714            2,809        40,688         3,391
        Source: Land Registry

5.4.2   There is some variation in the gross income required to purchase an entry-level property
        amongst the different local authorities.     Entry-level properties are most affordable in
        Lincoln where single income households must be earning £28,422 per annum gross,
        equivalent to £2,369 per month, to be able to afford a mortgage on an entry-level property
        priced at £99,477. Two income households must be earning £34,302 per annum, or £2,859
        per month. In contrast to this, single income households in North Kesteven need to be
        earning £35,143 per annum (2,929) to be able to afford an average entry-level property
        priced at £123,000. Two income households in this area need to be earning £42,414 (£3,535
        per month).


5.4.3   One indicator for household income is to look at annual earnings from the ONS Annual
        Survey of Hours and Earnings discussed in Section 3.7 above. One limitation of using this
        data source to assess affordability issues is that it does not take account of non-earning
        households. Nevertheless it is useful to look at the ratio of mean earnings to mean house
        prices as a guide to affordability issues in the Housing Market areas.


5.4.4   A comparison of mean and median annual earnings to mean house prices for the Oct-Dec
        quarter 2006 is shown in Table 49. In terms of both mean and median annual earnings,
        West Lindsey has the greatest difference between mean house prices and annual earnings
        at a ratio of 1 to 8.34.




98
                     Table 49: Mean house prices compared with mean annual earnings
                                       Mean             Mean        Median       Ratio of     Ratio of
                                      house           Annual        Annual         house        house
                                      prices         Earnings      Earnings     prices to    prices to
                                     Oct-Dec                                       mean       median
          Local Authority              2006                                     earnings     earnings
          Boston                     138,674            17451        14,906          7.95         9.30
          East Lindsey               153,639            18439        16,005          8.33         9.60
          Lincoln                    133,970            19388        17,521          6.91         7.65
          North Kesteven             163,752            20635        17,377          7.94         9.42
          West Lindsey               159,938            19176        16,438          8.34         9.73
         Source: Land Registry and ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

5.4.5    The ratio of mean and median earnings compared with the lowest quartile house prices is
         shown in Table 50. In relation to entry-level housing, West Lindsey is much better off than
         in relation to mean house prices, whereas East Lindsey experiences the greatest
         differential between annual earnings and lowest quartile house prices.

               Table 50: Lowest quartile house prices compared with mean annual earnings
                                     Lowest             Mean        Median       Ratio of     Ratio of
                                    quartile          Annual        Annual         house        house
                                house prices         Earnings      Earnings     prices to    prices to
                                    Oct-Dec                                        mean       median
          Local Authority              2006                                     earnings     earnings
          Boston                     102,000            17451        14,906          5.84         6.84
          East Lindsey               115,000            18439        16,005          6.24         7.19
          Lincoln                     99,477            19388        17,521          5.13         5.68
          North Kesteven             123,000            20635        17,377          5.96         7.08
          West Lindsey               103,000            19176        16,438          5.37         6.27
         Source: Land Registry and ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

5.4.6    The most recent data available on the link between household income and house prices is
         in the West Lindsey Housing Needs Survey 2007. This survey data allows us to determine
         the proportion of single income households unable to afford entry-level property on the
         open market and multiple income households unable to afford to access market housing.


5.4.7    Using the West Lindsey survey data as the most reliable indicator for affordability, an
         estimate of affordability has been assumed for the other four districts based on the relation
         of the ratio of median annual earnings to lowest quartile house prices in each district to
         that in West Lindsey (see Table 51).               Having calculated that the proportion of all
         households in West Lindsey unable to access market housing is 73.9% based on the survey
         data, then the estimated proportion of households in each of the other districts is 80.7% in
         Boston, 84.7% in East Lindsey, 67.0% in City of Lincoln and 83.5% in North Kesteven. These

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        proportions are used in determining the need for affordable housing in both current and
        future housing need in Chapters 7, 8 and 10.

                                   Table 51: Affordability adjustment
                                                 Lower
                                               quartile                   Index (West
                                  Median    house price          Ratio      Lindsey =   % unable to
                               income (£)           (£)     Y:LQ price           100)        afford

        Boston                     14,906        102000             6.8         109.2            80.7

        East Lindsey               16,005        115000             7.2         114.7            84.7

        Lincoln                    17,521          99477            5.7          90.6            67.0

        North Kesteven             17,377        123000             7.1         113.0            83.5

        West Lindsey               16,438        103000             6.3         100.0            73.9


5.4.8   In order to understand more detail about income distribution in each of the five districts,
        the following tables provide data on incomes taken from the most recent housing needs
        surveys undertaken in each local authority area. Some of these surveys are more recent
        than others. The latest surveys for Boston, Lincoln and North Kesteven date back to 2004
        and for East Lindsey to 2005 and incomes in these areas will have risen to some extent
        since then. The survey data for West Lindsey is the current survey undertaken in 2007.


5.4.9   Table 52 shows the distribution of gross monthly income across all households in each local
        authority area as identified through the previous housing needs survey data.




100
                                     Table 52: Household gross monthly income
          Gross monthly               Boston     East Lindsey     Lincoln        North West Lindsey
          income (£)                       %                %           %   Kesteven %            %
          Less than £550                 16.6             13.7      22.9         12.6            9.0
          £550-£750                       7.8             12.9       3.3          5.5            9.9
          £751-£950                       7.3               8.2     10.8          7.4            8.0
          £951-£1,250                    12.5             16.2      12.6          9.6           12.6
          £1,251-£1,550                  10.7               6.8     10.4         10.3           10.5
          £1,551-£2,050                  11.5             13.2      12.2         13.4           11.5
          £2,051-£2,550                  11.1               9.5      7.7          9.5           10.7
          £2,551-£3,050                   6.7               5.4      7.7          8.8            8.5
          £3,051-£3,550                   4.8               6.2      3.1          5.8            5.2
          £3,551-£4,050                   3.7               0.0      4.1          6.0            4.2
          £4,051-£4,550                   3.2               3.1      1.5          3.5            3.3
          £4,551-£5,050                   1.5               0.0      0.6          1.2            1.9
          £5,051-£5,550                   1.2               1.7      1.1          1.6            0.8
          £5,551-£6,050                   0.5               0.0      0.5          1.6            1.0
          £6,051-£6,550                   0.2               1.1      0.7          1.0            0.9
          £6,551+                         0.8               1.9      0.8          2.3            2.1
          Total                           100              100       100          100            100
         Source: Housing Assessment Surveys

5.4.10   Table 53 shows the numbers and cumulative proportions of single-income households in
         each local authority area with incomes falling into each gross monthly income band.
         Utilising the guidance affordability ratio of 3.5 times income to represent the purchasing
         capacity of single income households, Table 53 highlights the income band in each local
         authority area that households would need to fall into to be able to afford an entry level
         property. More than four out of five single earner households in all areas would be unable
         to afford an entry-level property. Affordability is most problematic in Boston. In this area
         around 96% of single earner households have insufficient income to be able to afford an
         entry-level property costing £102,000.




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                 Table 53: Household gross monthly income – single income households
                      Boston          East Lindsey        Lincoln         North Kesteven   West Lindsey

 Gross              Freq   Cumul      Freq    Cumul     Freq   Cumul       Freq   Cumul    Freq   Cumul
 monthly                    ative              ative            ative              ative           ative
 income (£)                     %                  %                %                  %               %
 < 550             3860        45.0   1089      7.4       94        4.2    1385      8.6   1407     15.5
 551–750           1416        61.6   1358     16.6       79        7.7    1615     18.5   1209     28.9
 751–950             816       71.1   1218     24.9     336      22.7      1580     28.3    932     39.1
 951–1,250         1124        84.2   2531     42.1     327      37.2      2405     43.1   1608     56.9
 1,251–1,550         438       89.3   1566     52.7     423      56.1      2308     57.4    944     67.3
 1,551–2,050         464       94.7   2797     71.7     504      78.5      2996     75.9    851     76.7
 2,051–2,550         178       96.8   1856     84.4     158      85.6       819     81.0    735     84.8
 2,551–3,050         202       99.2    776     89.6     198      94.4      1228     88.6    374     88.9
 3,051–3,550           0       99.2    803     95.1       20     95.3       592     92.2    264     91.8
 3,551–4,050          71    100.0        0     95.1       51     97.6       310     94.1    284     94.9
 4,051–4,550                           282     97.0       27     98.8       300     96.0    131     96.4
 4,551–5,050                             0     97.0        0     98.8        44     96.3     73     97.2
 5,051–5,550                           141     98.0        0     98.8        43     96.5     13     97.3
 5,551–6,050                             0     98.0       28   100.0        421     99.1     41     97.8
 6,051–6,550                            59     98.4                          18     99.2     36     98.2
 > 6,551                               242    100.0                         124    100.0    165    100.0
         Source: Housing Assessment Surveys

5.4.11   Table 54 shows the numbers and cumulative proportions of two income households in each
         local authority area with incomes falling into each gross monthly income band. Utilising
         the guidance affordability ratio of 2.9 times income to represent the purchasing capacity of
         two income households, Table 54 highlights the income band in each local authority area
         that households would need to fall into to be able to afford an entry level property. It is
         still apparent that a high proportion of two income households in each area are unable to
         afford an entry-level property. Problems of affordability for two income households are
         greatest in Boston and East Lindsey where around 76.8% and 78.4% of households
         respectively had insufficient monthly income to afford an entry level property.




102
                    Table 54: Household gross monthly income – two income households
 Gross                   Boston            East Lindsey            Lincoln          North Kesteven   West Lindsey
 monthly
 income (£)
                      Freq    Cumul        Freq     Cumul         Freq   Cumul       Freq   Cumul    Freq   Cumul
                               ative                 ative                ative              ative           ative
                                   %                     %                    %                  %               %
 < 550                 473         2.7      215        1.2         234        1.8     171      0.9    197        1.3
 551–750               611         6.2      298        3.0         114        2.7     147      1.7    545        4.8
 751–950              1078        12.4      339        4.9         274        4.8     527      4.5    634        8.8
 951–1,250            2123        24.5     1114       11.4         597        9.5    1014      9.8   1445       18.1
 1,251–1,550          2362        38.0     1012       17.3        1650       22.3    1531     17.9   1661       28.8
 1,551–2,050          2528        52.4     3241       36.1        1734       35.8    2362     30.4   2243       43.2
 2,051–2,550          2727        68.0     2613       51.3        2329       53.9    3060     46.6   2265       57.8
 2,551–3,050          1541        76.8     2011       63.0        2027       69.7    2391     59.3   2029       70.8
 3,051–3,550          1258        84.0     2660       78.4         854       76.4    1799     68.8   1203       78.6
 3,551–4,050           881        89.0         0      78.4        1428       87.5    2177     80.3    919       84.5
 4,051–4,550           835        93.8     1505       87.1         423       90.8    1166     86.5    822       89.8
 4,551–5,050           402        96.1         0      87.1         236       92.6     440     88.8    468       92.8
 5,051–5,550           303        97.8      880       92.3         420       95.9     645     92.2    225       94.2
 5,551–6,050           122        98.5         0      92.3          36       96.2     227     93.4    212       95.6
 6,051–6,550            53        98.8      571       95.6         208       97.8     383     95.5    221       97.0
 > 6,551               206     100.0        762      100.0         286   100.0        858    100.0    464      100.0
         Source: Housing Assessment Surveys

5.4.12   Differences in affordability are apparent between tenure groups. It is clear for all districts
         that the incomes of those residing within owner-occupied properties have higher relative
         incomes than those in private rented and social rented accommodation. Private renters
         can also be seen to have higher incomes than those within social rented tenures. Current
         entry-level prices are such that even a high proportion of households in owner-occupation
         cannot afford given guidance based affordability ratios. Table 55 to Table 59 illustrate the
         proportions of existing households within each tenure within each Local Authority that
         would not be able to afford entry-level purchases.




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      Table 55: Boston - Household gross monthly income by tenure (cumulative %)

      Gross income pm (£)      Owner-occupiers     Private renters     Social renters
      < 550                                 9.9              24.1                 39.0
      551–750                              16.5              31.5                 51.3
      751–950                              22.7              36.4                 63.4
      951–1,250                            34.9              48.9                 76.8
      1,251–1,550                          47.0              59.1                 82.6
      1,551–2,050                          59.4              73.4                 89.4
      2,051–2,550                          71.9              81.3                 96.9
      2,551–3,050                          79.8              88.0                 98.8
      3,051–3,550                          86.0              91.3                 99.4
      3,551–4,050                          90.7              92.8                 99.7
      4,051–4,550                          94.6              96.9              100.0
      4,551–5,050                          96.5              98.9
      5,051–5,550                          98.0             100.0
      5,551–6,050                          98.6
      6,051–6,550                          98.9
      > 6,551                           100.0
       Source: Housing Assessment Surveys


              Table 56: East Lindsey - Household gross monthly income by tenure
                                        (cumulative %)

      Gross income pm (£)      Owner-occupiers     Private renters     Social renters
      < 550                                9.2                21.3               35.3
      551–750                              20.3              36.9                 56.8
      751–950                              27.4              47.4                 69.4
      951–1,250                            42.6              66.2                 89.4
      1,251–1,550                          50.1              71.6                 93.6
      1,551–2,050                          64.6              85.0                 97.6
      2,051–2,550                          75.8              91.3                 99.5
      2,551–3,050                          82.3              94.5                 99.5
      3,051–3,550                          90.0              97.6                 99.5
      3,551–4,050                          90.0              97.6                 99.5
      4,051–4,550                          93.7              99.7                 99.8
      4,551–5,050                          93.7              99.7                 99.8
      5,051–5,550                          96.0              99.7              100.0
      5,551–6,050                          96.0              99.7
      6,051–6,550                          97.5              99.7
      > 6,551                           100.0               100.0
       Source: Housing Assessment Surveys




104
         Table 57: Lincoln - Household gross monthly income by tenure (cumulative %)

         Gross income pm (£)         Owner-occupiers          Private renters   Social renters
         < 550                                 14.5                      34.5             39.3
         551–750                                   17.9                 36.4             43.4
         751–950                                   25.5                 45.1             63.4
         951–1,250                                 36.4                 60.5             78.3
         1,251–1,550                               46.5                 69.1             89.8
         1,551–2,050                               61.1                 83.4             95.2
         2,051–2,550                               70.8                 88.8             98.9
         2,551–3,050                               81.8                 94.2             99.5
         3,051–3,550                               86.6                 94.2             99.5
         3,551–4,050                               92.4                 97.5             99.7
         4,051–4,550                               94.7                 97.5             99.7
         4,551–5,050                               95.6                 98.2             99.7
         5,051–5,550                               97.2                 98.7             99.7
         5,551–6,050                               97.7                100.0            100.0
         6,051–6,550                               98.7
         > 6,551                           100.0
          Source: Housing Assessment Surveys



            Table 58: North Kesteven - Household gross monthly income by tenure
                                       (cumulative %)

         Gross income pm (£)         Owner-occupiers          Private renters   Social renters
         < 550                                   8.7                     24.7             35.1
         551–750                                   13.4                 26.9             49.5
         751–950                                   20.2                 40.1             60.1
         951–1,250                                 29.6                 51.9             72.9
         1,251–1,550                               39.4                 65.0             81.0
         1,551–2,050                               52.6                 80.1             90.9
         2,051–2,550                               63.0                 87.0             95.4
         2,551–3,050                               73.1                 95.2             96.3
         3,051–3,550                               80.0                 97.6             96.6
         3,551–4,050                               87.0                 99.4             96.9
         4,051–4,550                               91.0                 99.4             98.7
         4,551–5,050                               92.4                100.0             98.7
         5,051–5,550                               94.3                                  98.7
         5,551–6,050                               96.2                                  99.3
         6,051–6,550                               97.1                                  99.7
         > 6,551                           100.0                                        100.0
          Source: Housing Assessment Surveys




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            Table 59: West Lindsey - Household gross monthly income by tenure
                                      (cumulative %)

        Gross income pm (£)    Owner-occupiers         Private renters   Social renters
        < 550                              5.2                    21.9             29.1
        551–750                            11.8                  38.2             57.0
        751–950                            19.4                  47.1             67.8
        951–1,250                          30.7                  63.9             88.9
        1,251–1,550                        40.9                  78.9             95.7
        1,551–2,050                        54.2                  86.4             97.4
        2,051–2,550                        66.6                  92.5             99.1
        2,551–3,050                        76.6                  96.8            100.0
        3,051–3,550                        82.8                  99.0
        3,551–4,050                        87.9                  99.0
        4,051–4,550                        92.0                  99.0
        4,551–5,050                        94.3                  99.0
        5,051–5,550                        95.2                  99.0
        5,551–6,050                        96.4                  99.0
        6,051–6,550                        97.5                  99.0
        > 6,551                           100.0                 100.0
         Source: Housing Assessment Surveys


5.5      Housing supply

        Vacancy and low demand within the private sector

5.5.1   Table 60 presents the vacancy and low demand housing rates among private sector dwelling
        within the Coastal and Central HMAs.      It is apparent that there are no low demand
        properties (according to the HSSA information) within either the Coastal or Central HMA.
        Vacancy rates are highest in West Lindsey (5.0%) and Boston (4.1%). These figures are
        broadly in line with those nationally. The relatively low levels of vacancy and low demand
        are demonstrative of the general growth in demand experienced across all areas.

            Table 60: Private sector vacancy and low demand (%)
          Local Authority     Vacancy         Low        Total private
                                           demand               sector
                                                            dwellings
          Boston                   4.1            0             21,312
          East Lindsey             2.8             -            56,418
          Lincoln                  2.1            0             30,672
          North Kesteven           3.1            0             38,778
          West Lindsey             5.0             -            33,436
        Source: Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix 2006




106
               Vacancy and low demand within social housing sector

5.5.2          Table 61 presents the vacancy and low demand information for social housing within the
               Coastal and Central HMAs. The levels of vacancies are relatively low as is the proportion of
               low demand and difficult to let stock. The figures do not suggest any difference in the
               quality or perceptions of housing provided by either Local Authority or RSLs.

                           Table 61: Social sector vacancy, low demand and hard to let 50 (%)
                                                                  Low demand                        Difficult to let
                 Local Authority             Vacancy                  LA              RSL                LA              RSL
                 Boston                            0.4                  -             2.2                  -             0.0
                 East Lindsey                      1.9                  -             1.9                  -             1.9
                 Lincoln                           1.0               0.0              0.3               0.0              2.3
                 North Kesteven                    0.5               0.0              0.0               0.0              0.0
                 West Lindsey                      1.3                  -             0.0                  -             0.0
               Source: Source: Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix 2006


               Sales

5.5.3          According to Land Registry data there were 3,068 sales within the market for private
               ownership over the quarter October to December 2006 in the Coastal and Central HMAs
               combined.        60.5% (1,857) occurred within the Central HMA and 39.5% (1,211) occurred
               within the Coastal HMA. The proportion of sales by property type is comparable between
               districts within the two HMAs, as presented in Table 62. Lincoln is the exception to this
               with a significantly lower proportion of sales of detached properties and significantly higher
               sales of terraced properties matching the housing stock.

                           Table 62: Volume of sales by property type for period 2001 to 2006 (%)
                 Local Authority            Detached             Semi-          Terraced                Flats                 Total
                                                              detached
                 Boston                            41.9              29.5              25.1                3.5                100.0
                 East Lindsey                      51.7              24.7              18.8                4.8                100.0
                 Lincoln                           20.6              29.9              43.7                5.8                100.0
                 North Kesteven                    56.7              28.2              12.8                2.3                100.0
                 West Lindsey                      44.8              23.3              30.5                1.4                100.0
               Source: Land Registry

5.5.4          Table 63 presents the estimated turnover by property type for each district within the
               Coastal and Central HMAs. Turnover is highest within the terraced stock and lowest within
               flat/maisonettes.



        50
             Cells marked * indicate data was unavailable or not applicable, usually due to Large Scale Voluntary Transfer.

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                  Table 63: Turnover by property type October – December 2006 (%)
       Property type        Boston         East     Lincoln      North      West        East
                                        Lindsey               Kesteven   Lindsey    Midlands
       Detached                1.5            1.4       1.8        1.8       1.4         1.3
       Semi-detached           1.6            1.6       1.7        1.7       1.4         1.3
       Terraced                3.0            2.1       2.0        2.6       2.8         1.8
       Flat/maisonette         0.8            0.7       1.0        1.6       0.7         0.9
       Total                   1.7            1.4       1.7        1.8       1.6         1.4
      Source: Land Registry and 2001 Census




108
6            IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
             FUTURE HOUSING MARKET
    6.1      Macro-economic trends

    6.1.1    In the early part of 2007 supply and demand are thought to be carefully balanced outside of
             the London and South East markets. Evidence for this lies in the variability of quarterly
             price change experienced outside of London and the South East. Demand is thought to
             have been supporting rather than increasing house prices in the early part of 2007, whilst
             the increase in interest rates to date and the threat of further increases has seen a rise in
             the number of sellers.


    6.1.2    Nationally, the private rented sector continues to be buoyant based on stable employment
             levels and positive net migration. Issues of affordability for potential first time buyers
             remain significant in maintaining the demand for rented accommodation for those unable
             and unsure about entering into home-ownership. As such buy-to-let investment continues
             to underpin regional house prices and provide stability, although recent interest rate
             increases will mean that investors may have to top up their investment without seeing any
             significant capital gains.


    6.1.3    Land for residential development continues to be sought after in earnest by developers
             although it is thought that city and town centre developments will find it harder to achieve
             increases in value and growth is likely to be outstripped by development in suburban areas.


    6.1.4    Homeowners have weathered a series of interest rate rises over the past nine months and
             although historically rates are low, with each rate rise affordability worsens and the
             number of new first time buyers will diminish.



    6.2      Demographic change

    6.2.1    Updated household projections published by the DCLG March 2007 based on ONS 2004 based
             population projections are shown in Table 86 and illustrated in Figure 30.




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                                 Table 64: Household projections to 2029 (thousands)
                                        2004      2006       2011    2016      2021      2026    2029
        Boston BC                           25      26         28         30      32       33      34
        East Lindsey                        59      61         67         73      79       84      86
        City of Lincoln                     38      38         40         42      43       45      45
        North Kesteven                      42       44        49         54      58       62      65
        West Lindsey                        35      36         40         43      46       49      50
        Lincolnshire                      288       297       322        346     369      390     401
        Source: New projections of households for England and the regions to 2029, Communities
        and Local Government Release 2007/0045, Table F: Sub regional Household Projections,
        England - 2004 based (Excel)

6.2.2   North Kesteven is predicted to grow by 54.8% in the 25 year period 2004-29. Significant
        growth above the County average is expected in East Lindsey (45.8%) and West Lindsey
        (42.9%). Growth for Lincoln is expected to be only 18.4% in the period.

                                   Figure 30: Household projections to 2029


                    100
                     90
                     80
                     70
        Thousands




                     60
                     50
                     40
                     30
                     20
                     10
                      0
                          2004       2006        2011       2016     2021      2026       2029

                                 Boston BC                East Lindsey         City of Lincoln
                                 North Kesteven           West Lindsey



6.2.3   Figure 31 presents the dwelling-led population projections for districts within the Coastal
        and Central HMAs, whilst Table 65 presents the difference between trend based and
        dwelling-led (policy led) projections.




110
           Table 65: Proportional increase in population projections - dwelling-
                                  led versus trend-based
          Local Authority         Regional Plan dwelling-                                ONS trend based
                                         led projections                                      projections
          Boston                                              18.0                                        21.4
          East Lindsey                                        15.1                                        28.0
          Lincoln                                             16.1                                         7.7
          North Kesteven                                      40.2                                        37.1
          West Lindsey                                        28.7                                        27.0
         Source: RSS review population                      projections,         October          2006,     Total       Population,
         www.emra.gov.uk and ONS

                    Figure 31: Draft RSS Total population dwelling-led projections
          160000




          140000




          120000




          100000




           80000




           60000




           40000
                      2001           2006              2011               2016                 2021              2026

                                    Boston   East Lindsey     Lincoln   North Kesteven     West Lindsey




         Source: RSS review population projections, October 2006, www.emra.gov.uk

6.2.4    ONS trend based projections allow examination of population growth for different age
         groups. Although it is agreed that dwelling-led projections of population are more realistic
         given planned development, general patterns remain, such that all districts will experience
         an increase in the proportion of population over the age of 65.                                     The planning led
         differences will affect the numbers of people in the lower age groups as it is this group that
         will be affected most by economic development within the region. For example, in Lincoln
         economic growth combined with expectations that the university population will grow will
         mean that the number and proportion of younger people will mean that Lincoln has a
         younger age distribution than the other district.




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               Table 66: Projection of population change by age group 2001-26 (%)
         Age group          Boston          East       Lincoln         North          West
                                         Lindsey                    Kesteven       Lindsey
         0-4                     6.9          0.0           6.4          18.0          13.2
         5-9                     3.0         -5.6          -4.2          13.3           8.7
         10-14                   0.0         -8.4         -17.0          10.6           8.0
         15-19                   2.9         -4.9         -18.8          18.6          15.6
         20-24                  10.3          5.2           3.4          22.9          24.2
         25-29                  14.8          7.8          20.3          31.1          10.8
         30-34                  -2.9        -10.0           8.5           7.7          -2.1
         35-39                  -7.5        -10.5          -3.2           5.0          -3.5
         40-44                   0.0         -4.4          -4.9          10.3           7.1
         45-49                   0.0          1.1           0.0          21.2          15.7
         50-54                  -2.5          1.1         -10.2          15.9          13.2
         55-59                  11.6         11.9           2.0          21.3          20.6
         60-64                  52.8         60.2          39.5          69.8          67.3
         65-69                  65.6         85.7          47.1          89.3          70.0
         70-74                  58.6         84.8          36.7          91.5          58.7
         75-79                  70.8         93.8          28.6         108.1          70.3
         80-84                117.6        140.0           43.5         137.9         119.2
         85+                  161.5        197.0          106.3         190.0         189.5
        Source: Trend based change

6.2.5   The difference in projections reflects the likely implications of planned development versus
        historic trend.   The dwelling-led projections see Lincoln’s population grow significantly
        more than would be assuming past growth, whilst the population growth in East Lindsey is
        restricted. The population projection for West Lindsey, North Kesteven and Boston remain
        relatively unchanged.



6.3     Migration

6.3.1   Information presented in section 3.2 indicates that the population in the Coastal and
        Central HMAs is increasing and that the dominant driver is positive net migration. This is
        confirmed by analysis of net migration using the National Health Service Central Register.


6.3.2   Table 67 and Table 68 show the pattern of in and out-migration for the districts within the
        Coastal and Central HMAs. In terms of in-migration, all districts except for East Lindsey
        received the majority of migrants from within Lincolnshire. East Lindsey received 28.0% of
        in-migration from areas outside of Lincolnshire but within the East Midlands, notably from
        Nottingham, Derby, Leicester, Bassetlaw and Broxtowe.         Net flow information shows
        significant population growth stemming from Yorkshire and The Humber and from London

112
         and the South East. West Lindsey and East Lindsey are shown to have received positive
         migration from these regions over the two years presented.


6.3.3    The major flows of population within the Coastal and Central HMAs can be seen to be
         between Boston and East Lindsey, Lincoln and North Kesteven, and Lincoln and West
         Lindsey. This is confirmed by the net migration flow maps, which show that Lincoln is
         losing population to both North Kesteven and West Lindsey.

                         Table 67: Origin of in-migrants (England and Wales) 2005
          Origin                                  Boston            East   Lincoln      North      West
                                                                  Lindse             Kesteven   Lindsey
                                                                       y
          Boston                                          -          4.6      1.4         2.5       0.6
          East Lindsey                                18.3             -      4.0         5.1       4.7
          Lincoln                                      2.5           2.8         -       23.6      18.2
          North Kesteven                               4.2           3.5     17.9           -       6.9
          South Holland                               11.3           1.6      0.5         0.9       0.4
          South Kesteven                               2.5           1.2      1.4         7.9       0.8
          West Lindsey                                 0.8           3.8     11.6         5.7         -
          Lincolnshire                               39.6          13.0      35.4       43.2      31.0
          Rest of East Midlands                       10.0          28.4     14.2        14.5      12.7
          North East                                   0.8           1.5      2.1         1.7       2.4
          North West                                   4.2           4.2      4.6         3.8       3.9
          Yorkshire and the Humber                     6.3          20.9     12.1         7.5      27.1
          West Midlands                                4.2           5.5      4.4         3.0       3.1
          East                                        14.6           9.7     10.2         9.1       6.5
          London                                       7.5           4.5      5.4         5.1       3.1
          South East                                  10.0           8.2      6.8         7.9       7.6
          South West                                   3.3           3.1      3.2         3.6       2.9
          Wales                                        1.7           0.9      1.1         1.3       1.0
          Total                              2,400      7,400               5,700      5,300     4,900
         Source: National Health Service Central Register




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                     Table 68: Destination of out-migrants (England and Wales) 2005
      Destination                                             Bosto               East                 Lincol             North        West
                                                                  n             Lindse                     n            Kesteve     Lindsey
                                                                                     y                                        n
      Boston                                                             -            7.9                    1.1            2.3            0.5
      East Lindsey                                                 14.8                      -               3.8            5.9            7.4
      Lincoln                                                       3.5               4.1                          -       23.2           17.4
      North Kesteven                                                5.7               4.8                   22.3              -            7.9
      South Holland                                                10.9               2.1                    0.7            1.1            0.8
      South Kesteven                                                3.0               1.8                    1.1            6.4            1.6
      West Lindsey                                                  1.3               4.1                   15.9            7.7              -
      Lincolnshire                                             39.1                  17.0                   43.8          44.3            35.0
      Rest of East Midlands                                        10.4              26.4                   13.8           14.3           12.4
      North East                                                    2.2               1.6                    2.0            1.8            1.6
      North West                                                    3.5               3.9                    4.3            4.1            3.9
      Yorkshire and the Humber                                      7.8              22.0                   12.3            8.2           25.0
      West Midlands                                                 5.2               5.0                    3.8            3.2            3.7
      East                                                         12.6               8.6                    7.1            6.6            5.5
      London                                                        4.8               3.0                    4.8            2.5            2.4
      South East                                                    8.7               7.1                    5.4            7.5            5.5
      South West                                                    3.0               4.1                    2.7            4.8            3.2
      Wales                                                         1.3               1.6                    1.1            1.4            1.3
      Total                                                  2,300                  5,600               5,600            4,400           3,800


                                        Figure 32: Net migration flows 2005
                                                                                                      North East

                      Yorkshire and Humber




                                                                              East Lindsey
        North West                           West Lindsey
                                                                                      320
                                             380 230    60                     50
                                             340                                      630
                                                       110

                                                        60         160                130

        East Midlands                                                                 240

             390                             Lincoln                                  160
                                                             180
                                                        90
                                                                                                      210
        West Midlands



                                                                                                                            East

                                                             North Kesteven                  Boston
        Wales                                                                                               100
                                                             230                                 50                60
                                                             480                                       70
                                                             190
                                                             160         90


                                                                                                                            South East


                      South West
                                                                                             London




114
               Source: National Health Service Central Register

                                                 Figure 33: Net migration flows 2003
                                                                                                               North East
                                                                                                                     70
                                Yorkshire and Humber




                                                                                          East Lindsey
                   North West                          West Lindsey
                                                                                                  170
                                                       170         370 130
                                                                                                  880
                                                       750              150

                                                                                                  240
                                                       310              180
                   East Midlands                                                                  470

                                                       Lincoln
                       550                                                                        280
                                                                   50
                                                                   50         70
                   West Midlands                             120        190                              410

                                                        90
                                                             100
                                                                                                                                 East

                                                                        North Kesteven                   Boston
                   Wales
                                                                              350                                    190
                                                                        460         250                         60         220
                                                                        100                                          130
                                                                                    270                         90
                                                                                          520
                                                                         80
                                                                                                                                 South East


                                South West
                                                                                                         London



               Source: National Health Service Central Register




6.4             Self-containment

6.4.1          A methodology has been developed for Communities and Local Government (CLG) that sets
               out a means for identifying and defining Housing Market Areas (HMA) 51 .                                                   The principal
               methodology is the use of Census migration data to measure stocks and flows. This is then
               supplemented by the views of local stakeholders.


6.4.2          The HMA boundaries assumed in the initial analysis form that of existing local authority
               boundaries. Migration data from the Standard Tables 52 , themed table T34 has been used to
               quantify stock and flow items used to model the housing system structure.


6.4.3          Essentially, the first exercise undertaken here is an initial examination of the method
               behind identifying housing markets. The exercise utilises a Local Authority District (LAD)
               structure using data at district level to gauge ‘self-containment’ within each Local




        51
             Housing Market Assessment Manual, Office of Deputy Prime Minister, DTZ Pieda Consulting, February 2004
        52
             Census 2001: Standard Table T34.

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        Authority District.   It is assumed here that each Local Authority District represents a
        potential housing market.


6.4.4   The analysis of housing market areas is imprecise. Strategic advice contained within CLG
        literature defines HMA boundaries using a variety of data sources. It is important to note
        that spatially, housing markets will vary between dwelling types. Also, given the nature of
        spatial data, specified as different area aggregates, analysis lends itself to a series of
        contexts, in which the Local Authority District structure applied here can be described
        within a regional or sub-regional context, and so on as the scale of analysis is reduced.
        Emphasis within CLG and housing literature is to examine HMAs at a regional level, with the
        importance of regional housing market and economy stressed as an area of further focus.


6.4.5   Ideally, data should relate only to owner-occupiers whose moves are not constrained by
        local authority boundaries. In this case the data used is therefore not particularly ideal,
        and restricts the degree of accuracy portrayed in the examination and in any inference
        made. 2001 Census Standard Tables data for example include households in all tenures who
        have moved in the year prior to the Census. Analysis at this level nevertheless remains
        informative.


6.4.6   The technical definition of a housing market area is typically based on patterns of
        relocation derived from migration data.       Essentially HMAs suffer from the use of
        administrative boundaries as their unit of analysis. The labour market and its locational
        structure within a particular region is critical in shaping an HMA.    For example, West
        Lindsey Local Authority District is part of the Central Lincolnshire HMA. Southern areas of
        West Lindsey share market characteristics with Lincoln.


6.4.7   ‘Self-containment’ is defined in this analysis as the proportion of whole household moves
        whereby the origin and destination district remained the same. ‘Self-containment’ is the
        number of household moves represented as a percentage of total moves originating from
        within each Local Authority District, the results from which are presented in the table
        below which uses 2001 Census data.




116
                                              Table 69: Self-containment
                                         Wholly moving
                                          households of                                   % moving households
                                        Local Authority           % Local Authority    outside Local Authority
          Local                        area origin to UK                 area ‘self-   area but within England
          Authority/sub-area               destinations               containment’                  and Wales
          Boston                                     1,554                     69.6                      30.1
          East Lindsey                               4,283                     66.1                      33.0
          Lincoln                                    3,228                     62.9                      36.3
          North Kesteven                             2,937                     51.4                      46.4
          West Lindsey                               2,312                     54.7                      44.6
         Source: 2001 Census

6.4.8    It is necessary to decide what level of ‘self-containment’ makes an area a housing market.
         For this analysis and in line with DCLG guidelines it is suggested that a 70% threshold would
         be regarded as a ‘true market’. All local authorities have ‘self-containment’ below this
         level. As a result, based on the assumption that local administrative boundaries can be
         used to represent housing markets, the five authorities appear not to be ‘self-contained’
         markets.


6.4.9    It is important to remember when interpreting these figures that there is no understanding
         of the destination beyond either inside or outside of the local authority for each move. The
         analysis exclusively looks at ‘local authority area self-containment’.


6.4.10   The results at this stage depict the lack of complexity and detail contained within the data
         and contains a series of assumptions. Essentially, the scale at which housing markets have
         been assessed here is that of the Local Authority District (LAD) level.                Cross-boundary
         moves are not quantified. Between district data would reveal a greater understanding and
         would lend itself to examining HMAs at the sub-regional level, it is to these cross boundary
         moves that attention now turns.


6.4.11   There is much debate concerning the best methodology for defining HMAs. Migration data
         can be argued to reflect constraints rather than choice. Migration data presents actual
         moves, and says little about the housing search of those who do not move, and essentially
         the first stage of the majority of those that do.


         Household moves within Boston

6.4.12   The pattern of movements within each of the Local Authority districts is important in
         examining sub-markets within both the Coastal and Central Lincolnshire HMAs. Table 70
         presents the intended household moves within Boston as collated through their latest
         Housing Assessment Survey.           The table represents the expected moves of households

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             intending to move showing the origin-based self-containment for each sub-area. 76.9% of
             households in Boston Town that intend to move expect to move within the same sub-area.
             This represents a highly self-contained sub market within the Boston Local Authority. The
             suburban/urban and rural south sub-areas also represent relatively self-contained sub-
             markets.      The rural north sub-area however, has a far lower proportion of households
             currently residing within it that expect to move within the same area. A higher proportion
             of households moving from the rural north expect to move to the suburban/urban sub-area.

                           Table 70: Expected locations of households intending to move 53
                                                                                                      Current location
               Expected                   Boston Town               Suburbs/
               location                                               Urban           Rural North          Rural South
               Boston Town                           76.9                 38.1                 27.9                 27.1
               Suburbs/ Urban                        29.1                 68.9                 44.9                 43.7
               Rural North                           16.1                 26.5                 37.9                 24.6
               Rural South                           17.8                 38.5                 36.6                 63.9
             Source: Housing Assessment Survey Boston 2005


             Household moves within East Lindsey

6.4.13       Table 71 presents the moves within East Lindsey over the previous two years. There is
             significant variation between sub-areas. The towns of Skegness and Louth have the highest
             levels of containment whilst the sub-area of Frithville, Sibsey, Stickney, Wainfleet &
             Friskney and Mablethorpe also have high self-containment. The more rural settlements
             have lower levels of containment generally. However, of those sub-areas with populations
             lower than 3,000 households the Alford and Withern with Stain area can be seen to have
             relatively high self-containment at 31.0% as can the sub-area of Burgh Le March, Croft &
             Willoughby with Sloothby. Both these areas are in close proximity to the larger coastal
             towns. The areas of Wragby, Woodhall Spa and Roughton, Mareham Le Fen & Tetford have
             significantly lower levels of origin-based self containment. These areas are in closer
             proximity to Lincoln and border the Central Lincolnshire HMA.




      53
           Note: column percentages total more than 100% as respondents could indicate more than one preferred location.



118
          Table 71: Housing moves of households that moved in the two years previous to 2005
                                                                                                Expected location




                                                                                           In a village in the East
                                                                  In the same village or




                                                                                                                      In a town in the East



                                                                                                                                              Outside East Lindsey
                                                                     town in the East
                                                                       Lindsey area


                                                                                                Lindsey area


                                                                                                                           Lindsey area




                                                                                                                                                                      Total
          Current location
          Holten Le Clay, Thoresby & Tetney                               22.5                 16.1                           7.0             54.4                   100.0
          North Somercotes and Skidbrooke                                    8.4                     7.6                      0.0             84.0                   100.0
          Legbourne, Grimoldby, Marchchapel &
          Binbrook                                                        17.5                 18.5                           9.2             54.8                   100.0
          Wragby & Ludford                                                   6.5               13.9                           3.9             75.7                   100.0
          Roughton, Mareham Le Fen & Tetford                              15.1                 14.9                       19.3                50.7                   100.0
          Alford & Withern with Stain                                     31.0                 24.4                           8.6             36.0                   100.0
          Frithville, Sibsey, Stickney, Wainfleet &
          Friskney                                                        39.9                       3.3                      7.0             49.7                   100.0
          Horncastle                                                      28.1                       7.9                  32.6                31.4                   100.0
          Louth                                                           45.3                 26.0                       10.6                18.1                   100.0
          Skegness                                                        50.8                 13.3                           4.7             31.2                   100.0
          Mablethorpe                                                     38.5                       5.6                      1.9             54.0                   100.0
          Woodhall Spa                                                    16.5                 11.7                           7.5             64.2                   100.0
          Conningsby & Tattershall                                        12.7                 17.1                           0.0             70.2                   100.0
          Chapel St Leonards & Ingoldmells                                23.4                       4.3                      7.8             64.5                   100.0
          Burgh Le March, Croft & Willoughby with
          Sloothby                                                        21.9                 28.6                       12.6                36.9                   100.0
          Halton, Holegate & Hundleby                                     27.4                 16.2                       18.7                37.8                   100.0
          Total                                            31.7                              13.9                            9.0              45.4                   100.0
         Source: Housing Assessment Survey East Lindsey 2005


         Household moves within Lincoln

6.4.14   Table 72 presents the destination-based measure of self-containment for each of the wards
         in Lincoln based upon the movement recorded in the 2001 Census.                                                                      The households
         represented are those that were at a different address the year prior to the Census. Ward
         level containment is the proportion of households that were at a different address the
         previous year that moved within the same ward.                          The highest destination based self-
         containment is found within the Glebe ward at 29.8% and the lowest within Minster at
         13.3%. The 2001 Census shows that over 50% of moves to each ward in the year 2000 to
         2001 were from areas inside of Lincoln. This is confirmed by the previous Housing Market
         Assessment, conducted in 2005, which shows that 61.0% of survey respondents that moved
         to their present address in the two years previous moved within Lincoln.

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                     Table 72: Ward level origin and destination matrix 2001 Census
                                                                                                                                  Current location




                                                             Bracebridge




                                                                                                               Hartsholme
                                  Birchwood




                                                                             Carholme
                                                Boultham




                                                                                                                                          Moorland
                                                                                                                              Minster
                                                                                          Castle
                        Abbey
 Previous




                                                                                                     Glebe




                                                                                                                                                       Park
 location
 Abbey                18.9        3.3           3.4          1.8             6.6          4.3        4.6       1.9            5.3         2.8          6.6
 Birchwood              2.1      21.0           1.9          5.8             1.4          1.0        1.7       6.7            1.9         2.6          1.8
 Boultham               3.4       1.9          16.1          4.2            15.3          3.7        1.4       5.3            1.2         4.0         11.8
 Bracebridge            1.2       2.5           1.0         18.9             1.1          2.3        1.9       2.1            1.3         6.8          5.0
 Carholme               2.8       2.6           3.2          2.5            15.6          8.0        3.5       0.9            4.7         2.1          4.2
 Castle                 2.6       2.5           1.8          1.1             4.1         19.2        5.3       1.4           10.6         2.1          2.5
 Glebe                  3.5       3.0           0.9          2.1             2.3          5.0       29.8       0.6            5.9         1.4          2.6
 Hartsholme             0.3       7.9           2.5          4.2             1.4          1.1        0.7      14.4            1.2         4.3          2.4
 Minster                2.2       0.9           0.9          1.1             5.0         14.0        4.0       1.1           13.3         0.7          0.7
 Moorland               1.6       3.3           3.2          4.9             1.5          0.9        2.4       5.2            2.2        23.7          3.8
 Park                   4.2       5.2           7.5          9.8             5.3          4.7        3.7       2.9            5.3        10.1         15.4
 Outside of
 Lincoln              43.0       37.0          49.8         36.0            34.1         27.8       33.8      49.4           45.3        34.3         33.1
 Outside of the
 UK                     3.4       2.3           4.0          2.5             2.0          1.6        2.7       3.3            0.9         0.3          2.6
 No previous
 address              11.1        6.7           4.0          5.1             4.4          6.5        4.4       4.8            6.0         4.8          7.5
 Total               100.0      100.0         100.0        100.0           100.0        100.0      100.0     100.0          100.0       100.0        100.0
          Source: 2001 Census Origin and Destination Matrices, CAS ward level.


          Household moves within North Kesteven

6.4.15    Both the previous Housing Market Assessment survey data for North Kesteven and the 2001
          Census migration statistics show lower levels of self-containment in North Kesteven as a
          whole with only 46.3% of households that moved within the two years previous to the
          survey moving within the district. The 2001 Census shows self-containment of 51.4% for
          North Kesteven.


6.4.16    The origin and destination statistics from the 2001 Census show variable destination based
          self-containment across the 30 wards within North Kesteven, the highest of which being
          20.6% and the lowest being zero. This indicates that whilst North Kesteven can be seen to
          approximate a higher relative level of containment at the district level, that at the sub-
          district level there is much movement between areas within North Kesteven and between
          these areas and those outside of the Local Authority boundary.                                        Analysis of both data




120
            sources confirms that the housing markets within North Kesteven operate within larger
            markets. 54 Net migration flows show greatest connectivity with Lincoln.


            Household moves within West Lindsey

6.4.17      Table 73 presents the moves of households within West Lindsey as collated through the
            Housing Assessment survey conducted as part of this HMA. The table shows the current
            location of households that moved in the previous two years split by their previous location.
            This destination based measure shows that the Gainsborough, Lea and Morton area operates
            as a relatively contained sub-area within West Lindsey. It is also clear that movement
            within the villages and hamlets outside of the main settlements are also relatively
            contained, whilst Market Rasen and Caistor have relatively low proportions of moves that
            both originate and settle within their respective areas.               It is clear that each of the
            settlements receive significant proportions of in-migration from the more rural areas.
            These rural areas are also in receipt of households moving from Lincoln, as is Market Rasen
            and the Gainsborough, Lea and Morton area. Caistor by contrast is in receipt of a higher
            proportion of moving households from North and North East Lincolnshire to the north.
            Market Rasen has a greater connection with East Lindsey, also a result of geographical
            location.




     54
          Consequently the ward level data has not been shown in table form here

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                    Table 73: Housing moves of households that moved in the previous two years
                                                                                                                                                                               Current location
                                                                                                                                                                Other
                                                                                               Gainsborough,                      Market                        Village/
         Previous location                                          Caistor                    Lea, Morton                        Rasen                         hamlet                    Total
         Caistor                                                            27.8                                         0.0                          2.9                           0.8      1.5
         Gainsborough, Lea, Morton area                                      0.0                                        55.7                          0.0                           2.7     13.2
         Market Rasen                                                        5.3                                         0.0                      24.1                              0.3      1.9
         Other village/Hamlet                                               22.5                                        17.2                      18.0                            36.5      31.0
         Lincoln                                                             0.0                                         6.1                      11.1                            14.6      12.3
         East Lindsey                                                        0.0                                         0.0                          8.9                           0.5      1.0
         North Kesteven                                                      0.0                                         0.0                          0.0                           2.0      1.4
         Nottinghamshire                                                     0.0                                         5.9                          0.0                           3.0      3.3
         Elsewhere in Lincs/N Lincs/NE
         Lincs                                                              27.8                                         2.0                          6.0                           9.7      8.4
         Elsewhere in East Midlands                                          5.3                                         2.0                          0.0                           2.0      2.0
         Else where in the UK                                               11.2                                        11.1                      29.0                            26.6      23.2
         Outside the UK                                                      0.0                                         0.0                          0.0                           1.2      0.9
         Total                              100.0                                                                   100.0                 100.0                                 100.0     100.0
        Source: Housing Assessment Survey 2007


6.5     Supply side trends

6.5.1   Table 74 details the actual number of completions in each district since 2003 and provides
        figures of the number of social rented and intermediate housing completions within these
        totals. West Lindsey has consistently achieved the highest number of housing completions
        each year.

                                     Table 74: District Housing Completions 2003-06
                                               2003-04                                             2004-05                                                2005-06
                           Social rented




                                                                               Social rented




                                                                                                                                      Social rented
                                                 Intermediate




                                                                                                     Intermediate




                                                                                                                                                            Intermediate
                                                                    Total




                                                                                                                          Total




                                                                                                                                                                                  Total




         District
         Boston                     45                          4    441                20                   10            284                        7             39             268
         East Lindsey               55                          7    552                28                          9      520           103                        47             536
         Lincoln                           0              24         301                       0                    4      332                 38                          0       374
         North
         Kesteven                   17                          0    499                17                          0      451                 57                          0       538
         West Lindsey               60                   20          878                21                   37            794                 26                   60             858
        Source: Total completion figures provided by Lincolnshire Development; Social rent and
        intermediate figures are from annual District HIP returns


122
6.5.2    The numbers in Table 74 need to be compared to the district completion targets for each
         year. Table 75 shows the annual completion target for each district from 2001 – 2026 and
         details the percentage requirement for social rented housing completions.                   Table 76
         provides the same comparison for intermediate housing completions.


6.5.3    Table 75 and Table 76, and paragraphs 6.5.4 to 6.5.8, compare the completions in Table 74
         with the interim affordable housing targets in Policy 15 of the Draft East Midlands Regional
         Plan. It must be emphasised that these targets are to be reviewed following completion of
         the Housing Market Assessments. Also the policy context for this period, 2003-06, was the
         Lincolnshire Structure Plan, which incorporated lower total provision figures and no
         affordable housing.

                        Table 75: Social rented housing completion targets and actuals
                                                                    Actual        Actual        Actual
                               Annual          Social rent          District      District      District
                             completions         annual           completions   completions   completions
                               target            target            2003 - 04     2004 - 05     2005 - 06
          District                               No        %        No     %      No     %      No       %
          Boston                       290      110     38.0        45   15.5     20    6.9      7      2.4
          East Lindsey                 650      247     38.0        55    8.5     28    4.3    103     15.8
          Lincoln                      524      141     27.0         0    0.0      0    0.0     38      7.3
          North
          Kesteven                     754      204     27.0        17    2.3     17    2.3     57      7.6
          West Lindsey                 552      149     27.0        60   10.9     21    3.8     26      4.7
         Source: Policies 14 and 15 Draft East Midlands Regional Plan



                   Table 76: Intermediate housing housing completion targets and actuals –
                                                                    Actual        Actual        Actual
                               Annual         Intermediate          District      District      District
                             completions         annual           completions   completions   completions
                               target            target            2003 - 04     2004 - 05     2005 - 06
          District                               No        %        No     %      No     %      No       %
          Boston                       290         9     3.0         4    1.4     10    3.4     39     13.4
          East Lindsey                 650       20      3.0         7    1.1      9    1.4     47      7.2
          Lincoln                      524       10      2.0        24    4.6      4    0.8      0      0.0
          North
          Kesteven                     754       15      2.0         0    0.0      0    0.0      0      0.0
          West Lindsey                 552       11      2.0        20    3.6     37    6.7     60     10.9
         Source: Policies 14 and 15 Draft East Midlands Regional Plan

6.5.4    In terms of total housing completions, Boston exceeded its annual target in 2003–04,
         virtually achieved the target in 2004–05 but only achieved 92.4% in 2005-06. Social rented
         housing targets were not achieved in any year diminishing from 15.5% of the targeted
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        completions in 2003-04 to 2.4% in 2005-06. Completions of intermediate housing rose from
        1.4% in 2003-04 to 13.4% in 2005-06 far exceeding the annual target of 3.0%.


6.5.5   For East Lindsey, the annual completion target of 650 was not achieved in any of these
        three years with completions reaching 84.9%, 80.0% and 82.5% respectively. 2005-06 saw
        the highest number of social rented completions with 103 representing 15.8% of the annual
        target but still falling short of the social rented target of 38.0%. Intermediate housing
        completions were initially below the target of 3.0% of completions but in 2005-06 rose
        above the target to 7.2% of completions.


6.5.6   Lincoln’s total housing completions over this three year period represent 57.4%, 63.4% and
        71.4% of the district target. Social rented completions have not achieved their target of
        27.0% of total completions in any of these years but 2005-06 saw an improvement to 7.3%
        of completions. Intermediate housing completions target of 2.0% was exceeded in 2003-04
        but since then has dropped below target and 2005-06 saw no intermediate housing
        completions.


6.5.7   North Kesteven’s annual housing completions from 2003-06 represent 66.0%, 59.8% and
        71.4% of the target.      The social rented housing completions target of 27.0% of all
        completions has not been met in any of the years with the highest proportion of social
        rented completions in 2005-06 with 7.6%.       There have been no intermediate housing
        completions in any of the three years.


6.5.8   West Lindsey’s annual housing completion target is 552. Completions in each year from
        2003 to 2006 far exceeded this figure with total number of completions of 878, 794 and 858
        respectively. Social rented housing completions are targeted at 27.0% of the total. 2003-
        04 saw 10.9% social rented housing completions but this percentage has now fallen to 4.7%
        of the targeted figure.    Intermediate housing completions, however, have consistently
        achieved a higher number and proportion than targeted, rising to 10.9% of total targeted
        completions in 2005-06.




124
7                 CURRENT HOUSING NEED
                                   Table 77: Summary of data required for current housing need 55
                     Step                                                   Data items
                     1.1 Homeless households and those in                   Homeless agencies data, Priority homeless
                     temporary accommodation                                households in temporary accommodation
                     1.2 Overcrowding and concealed                         Census, Survey of English Housing, Local
                     households                                             Housing Registers
                     1.3 Other groups                                       Housing Register, Local Authority and RSL
                                                                            transfer lists, Hostel move-on needs
                     1.4 Total current housing need (gross)                 1.1 + 1.2 (+ 1.3)


    7.1            Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation

    7.1.1          Data on the number of homeless households and those in priority need from the Housing
                   Strategy Statistical Appendix 2006 is presented in Table 78, Table 79 and Table 80.

                               Table 78: Households accepted as homeless and in priority need
                                                    East      City of    North             West      Coastal      Central
                                 Boston BC       Lindsey      Lincoln Kesteven          Lindsey        HMA          HMA
                   2002/3                 68          385          153           81           94          453         328
                   2003/4                 89          320          272          113           69          409         454
                   2004/5                 86          205          279          104           74          291         457
                   2005/6                 68          100          163           59           78          168         300
                   Source: HSSA 2006

    7.1.2          Of the households accepted as homeless and in priority need, the pattern over the last four
                   years across the HMA has been quite different. Boston despite some fluctuation has the
                   same figure of 68 in 2005/6 as in 2002/3. Similarly Lincoln and North Kesteven rose in
                   2003/4 and 2004/5 only to return to a similar position in 2005/6 as in 2002/3. East Lindsey
                   on the other hand has seen a consistent and significant fall of 74.0% over the period from
                   385 to 100. West Lindsey fell in 2003/4 only to rise steadily in the following years.




            55
                 Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance, Communities and Local Government, March 2007, p43

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                      Table 79: Homeless households and in temporary accommodation

                                       East     City of      North        West   Coastal    Central
        31st March     Boston BC    Lindsey     Lincoln   Kesteven     Lindsey     HMA        HMA
        2003                  64        200         20             0        0       264          20
        2004                  82        177         20             0       13       259          33
        2005                  99        139         33         24          21       238          78
        2006                 103         83         37         86          18       186        141
        Source: HSSA 2006

7.1.3   The numbers in temporary accommodation also fluctuates considerably across the HMA.
        Boston has seen a steady rise in the use of temporary accommodation; up 60.9% between
        2003 and 2006. Likewise Lincoln’s figure has risen; by 85.0%. Rises in North Kesteven and
        West Lindsey are steep, but both started from zero in 2003.        East Lindsey is the only
        authority to record decreases in the use of temporary accommodation; down 58.5%
        between 2003 and 2006.

                     Table 80: Social housing let to homeless households in priority need
                                       East     City of      North        West   Coastal    Central
                       Boston BC    Lindsey     Lincoln   Kesteven     Lindsey     HMA        HMA
        2002/3                22        112        100         60          52       134        212
        2003/4                31        123        220        114          31       154        365
        2004/5                28        116        157         58          35       144        250
        2005/6                41         71        151         51          54       112        256
        Source: HSSA 2006

7.1.4   In terms of lets to homeless households East Lindsey, Lincoln and North Kesteven saw
        significant rises in 2003/4; East Lindsey and North Kesteven have now dropped to a level
        below 2002/3, whereas Lincoln is 51% higher. West Lindsey dropped during the period but
        is now similar to 2002/3 and Boston is now 86.4% higher.


7.1.5   Overall then the picture can be summarised as:


           No change in the number of homeless in Boston, but a greater reliance on temporary
           accommodation

           A reduction in the number of homeless in East Lindsey and a corresponding reduction in
           the use of temporary accommodation

           In Lincoln there has been an increase in the number homeless and a large increase in
           the use of temporary accommodation. However, at the same time there has been an
           increase in the numbers in priority need housed in local authority stock

           North Kesteven has seen overall increases in the numbers of homeless and decreases in
           the use of temporary accommodation and little change in the numbers housed in local
           authority dwellings


126
             West Lindsey has made greater use of temporary accommodation at a time when the
             numbers presenting as homeless have risen over the last three years


7.2      Over-crowding and concealed households

7.2.1    The ONS occupancy rating provides a measure of under-occupancy and over-crowding. A
         negative value indicates an overcrowded household. It relates the actual number of rooms
         to the number of rooms required by the members of the household based on an assessment
         of the relationship between household members, their ages and gender. In Table 81 the
         proportion of households with a negative rating is applied to the current number of total
         households as indicated in the HSSA 2006 for each district.


7.2.2    Some assumptions then need to be made as to the proportion of these households that
         would be able to find in situ solutions to their overcrowding problems. The assumption
         made here is to apply the same proportions as indicated in the previous housing need
         surveys for those households unsuitably housed, but able to make in situ solutions. Of the
         remaining households that would need to move to alternative accommodation, further
         assumptions must be made as to the proportion that can not afford to access more
         appropriate accommodation on the open market. In order to estimate the proportion of
         households unable to afford to access appropriate housing on the open market in Boston,
         East Lindsey, City of Lincoln and North Kesteven three sources of financial information have
         been used: the 2007 West Lindsey Housing Market Assessment; the Land Registry for house
         price information and the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings.              This method of
         estimating affordability is discussed in Section 5.4 below.


7.2.3    The census does provide information on concealed households, but these have not been
         included as it is not possible to distinguish how many concealed households are included in
         the overcrowded households numbers.

                                   Table 81: Overcrowded households (Step 1.2)
                                                      Boston BC        East   City of    North      West
                                                                    Lindsey   Lincoln Kesteven   Lindsey
         Proportion with negative rating                      4.2       3.8      5.9       2.2       2.2
         Implied number                                     1112      2234      2288      977       847
         Minus households in situ solutions                  186       399       276      168        49
         Times proportion unable to afford                  80.7      84.7      67.0      83.5     73.9
         Total households at step 1.2                        150       338      185       140        36
         Source: 2001 Census, Occupancy rating (UV59)




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7.3     Other groups

7.3.1   Housing in poor condition is one of a set of indices of deprivation developed by the Social
        Disadvantage Research Centre of the University of Oxford on behalf of the Office of the
        Deputy Prime Minister in 2004.       The Housing in Poor Condition Indicator provides a
        modelled probability that any house in the defined area will fail to meet the “Decent
        Homes Standard”. The proportion of households in each district that are in unsuitable
        housing due to poor condition as highlighted by this indicator is shown in Table 82. As with
        overcrowded households, an assumption must be made about the proportion of these
        households that would be unable to afford appropriate market housing.

                Table 82: Households unsuitably housed due to poor condition (Step 1.3)
                                                     Boston      East    City of    North         West
                                                         BC   Lindsey    Lincoln Kesteven      Lindsey

        Proportion of housing in Poor Condition        0.32       0.32      0.34        0.27     0.32
        Implied number                                   85       187         134       121       120
        Times proportion unable to afford              80.7       84.7      67.0        83.5     73.9
        Total households at step 1.3                     68       158         89        101        89
        Source: 2001 Census, Indices of Deprivation 2004: Housing in Poor Condition Indicator


7.4     Total current housing need (gross per year)

7.4.1   For the purposes of assessing current housing need there are two alternative models, one
        based on secondary data to ascertain a backlog of current households in need described in
        paragraphs 7.1 to 7.3 and one based on use of the Housing Register.


7.4.2   Table 83 shows the estimated level of current housing need, based on the number of
        households in temporary accommodation at 31st March 2006 (in Table 79), the number of
        households in unsuitable housing due to overcrowding and unable to find in situ solutions or
        afford to move to more suitable accommodation (Step 1.2 in Table 81) and the number of
        households in unsuitable housing due to housing in poor condition and unable to afford to
        move to more suitable accommodation (Step 1.3 in Table 82).


7.4.3   When using model 1, the estimated level of current housing need is considered as a
        proportion of the total households in each district, there is 0.2% difference between each
        district starting with West Lindsey at 0.4% and increasing to 1.2% in Boston.




128
                                     Table 83: Current Housing Need (model 1)
                                                Boston BC            East     City of        North            West
                                                                  Lindsey     Lincoln     Kesteven         Lindsey

         Step 1.1                                      103             83          37              86          18
         Step 1.2                                      150           338          185             140          36
         Step 1.3                                        68          158           89             101          89

         Step 1.4                                      322           579          311             327         143
         Proportion of total households                 1.2           1.0         0.8             0.7          0.4
         Source: HSSA 2006 (step 1.1), ONS (step 1.2 and 1.3)

7.4.4    As an alternative it can be argued that district housing registers are the most important and
         objective indicators of unmet housing need. It depends on the quality of individual housing
         registers, but in principle, all applicants are subject to detailed scrutiny as to their
         circumstances.      It is not unreasonable to assume that applicants are in housing that is
         unsuitable    for   their    present    or   imminent      circumstances,      through    their   current
         accommodation being too expensive, insecure, defective, too small, or through problems of
         internal and external accessibility and that they are unable to either find in situ solutions
         to their difficulties or are unable to afford to access appropriate market housing.


7.4.5    In Table 84 the number of households on the housing register is shown in relation to the
         total households in each district. Whilst the level of current housing need is much higher
         using model 2, the pattern of housing need distribution is similar to that shown in model 1,
         with Boston, East Lindsey and City of Lincoln having greater levels of current need
         compared with North Kesteven and West Lindsey.

                                     Table 84: Current Housing Need (model 2)
                                                 Boston BC           East      City of        North           West
                                                                  Lindsey      Lincoln     Kesteven        Lindsey
         Step 1.1
         Step 1.2                                              All included in the housing register

         Step 1.3

         Step 1.4                                      1882          5136        3467         2518           1783

         Proportion of total households                  7.1           8.8         8.9            5.7          4.7
         Source: HSSA 2006 Numbers on housing register 2005/06




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8                 FUTURE HOUSING NEED
                                   Table 85: Summary of data required for future housing need 56
                     Step                                                  Data items
                     2.1 New household formation (gross per                Census, SEH (from Chapters 3 and 4)
                     year)
                     2.2 Proportion of new households unable               Entry level rents/property prices
                     to buy or rent in the market                          identified in Chapter 3, SEH, Mortgage
                                                                           lenders, LA/RSL databases
                     2.3 Existing households falling into need             Housing register, LA/RSL data, tenants
                                                                           surveys
                     2.4 Total newly arising housing need (gross           (2.1 x 2.2) + 2.3
                     per year)


    8.1            New household formation

    8.1.1          Updated household projections published by the DCLG March 2007 based on ONS 2004 based
                   population projections are shown in Table 86.

                                         Table 86: Household projections to 2029 (thousands)
                                                    2004        2006        2011        2016        2021        2026          2029
                   Lincolnshire                       288         297         322         346         369         390          401
                   Boston BC                           25          26          28          30          32          33           34
                   East Lindsey                        59          61          67          73          79          84           86
                   City of Lincoln                     38          38          40          42          43          45           45
                   North Kesteven                      42          44          49          54          58          62           65
                   West Lindsey                        35          36          40          43          46          49           50
                   Source: New projections of households for England and the regions to 2029, Communities
                   and Local Government Release 2007/0045, Table F: Sub regional Household Projections,
                   England - 2004 based (Excel)

    8.1.2          Using the growth in household numbers from 2006 to 2011, divided by five, an estimate of
                   the number of new households forming annually in the next five years can be obtained.
                   However, for the purpose of this Strategic Housing Market Assessment, the dwelling-led
                   projections discussed at paragraph 6.2.4 above and shown in Table 87 will be used to
                   estimate future housing need.




            56
                 Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance, Communities and Local Government, March 2007, p45


    130
                                   Table 87: New household formation (Step 2.1)
                                                            Boston            East    City of    North       West
                                                                BC         Lindsey    Lincoln Kesteven    Lindsey
         2006 dwelling-led projections                       25428          59333      39319    42702      35676
         2011 dwelling-led projections                       26861          62672      41933    46389      38464
         Household change in 5 year period                        1433       3339       2614     3687       2788
         Household change annualised                               287        668        523       737       558
         Total households at step 2.1                             287         668       523       737        558
         Source: RSS review population projections, October 2006, Total Population
         www.emra.gov.uk


8.2      Newly forming households unable to buy or rent in the market

8.2.1    As with assessing current housing need, assumptions must be made in estimating the
         proportions of new households that will not be able to afford to access housing on the open
         market.     Entry-level house prices based on lowest quartile prices of recent sales are
         discussed in Chapter 5. Without survey data it is difficult to relate specific case-by-case
         household incomes to the level required for purchase of entry-level accommodation. In the
         case of West Lindsey the same proportion is applied to new households unable to afford
         access as to households in current need based on the total households unable to afford in
         the recent 2007 survey. For the other districts the same proportions applied to estimating
         current housing need have been applied to newly arising need.

                Table 88: New household unable to afford housing on open market (Step 2.2)
                                                                  Boston       East    City of    North      West
                                                                      BC    Lindsey    Lincoln Kesteven   Lindsey
         Proportion unable to afford open market                    80.7       84.7      67.0     83.5      73.9
         Total households at step 2.2                               231         566       350      616       412
         Source: Affordability based on HMA for West Lindsey 2007, Land Registry house price data
         and ONS ASHE data


8.3      Existing households falling into need

8.3.1    Existing households falling into need is taken from district information collated in the HSSA
         2005/06 related to the numbers of households accepted as unintentionally homeless and in
         priority need during the year minus the total number of lets (LA and RSL) to homeless
         households during the year.




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                        Table 89: Existing households falling into need (Step 2.3)
                                                      Boston       East    City of    North          West
                                                          BC    Lindsey    Lincoln Kesteven       Lindsey
        Households becoming homeless                     68          100         163      59          78
        Dwellings let to homeless households             41           71         151      51          54
        Total households at step 2.3                     27          29          12           8       24
        Source: DCLG live table 627 - households accepted as unintentionally homeless and in
        priority need and HSSA 2005/06 total dwellings let to homeless households (LA and RSL
        combined)


8.4     Total newly arising housing need

8.4.1   Taking steps 2.1 to 2.3 an estimate of newly arising need is shown in Table 90. The number
        of new households falling into need as a proportion of total households shows a different
        distribution pattern across the five districts than emerges from the estimation of current
        housing need. There is greater consistency across the five districts with North Kesteven
        and West Lindsey showing proportionally more newly arising need than current need in
        relation to Boston and City of Lincoln and East Lindsey.

                                 Table 90: Future Housing Need (model 1)
                                          Boston BC         East       City of        North          West
                                                         Lindsey       Lincoln     Kesteven       Lindsey

        Step 2.1                                287            668         523         737           558

        Step 2.2                                231            566         350         616           412
        Step 2.3                                 27             29          12           8            24

        Step 2.4                               258             595         362         624           436
        Proportion of total households          1.0            1.0         0.9          1.4           1.1
        Source: RSS dwelling-led projections, affordability method described in 5.4, HSSA data
        2005/06

8.4.2   An alternative to estimating newly arising need from household projections is to look at the
        number of households joining the housing register in the previous year, or to take an
        average over previous years. However due to the housing register figures recorded on the
        most recent Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix being skewed by large drops in City of
        Lincoln and significant increases in North Kesteven the housing registers have not been used
        to estimate newly arising need.


8.4.3   With a greater degree of consistency and reliability in each District’s use of their housing
        register, it should be possible in the future to make good use of housing registers as a tool
        for monitoring and predicting future housing need in the sub region.



132
9                 AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY
                                 Table 91: Summary of data required for affordable housing supply 57
                     Step                                                    Data items
                     3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by                    Housing Register, Local Authority and RSL
                     households in need                                      transfer lists, Over-crowding data
                     3.2 Surplus stock                                       Local Authority and RSL records
                     3.3 Committed supply of new affordable                  Development programmes of affordable
                     housing                                                 housing providers (RSLs, developers, LAs),
                                                                             Regeneration\ Pathfinder Schemes,
                                                                             including conversions and intermediate
                                                                             housing products
                     3.4 Units to be taken out of management                 Demolition and conversions programmes of
                                                                             LAs, RSLs, Regeneration\Pathfinder Schemes
                     3.5 Total affordable housing stock available            3.1 + 3.2 + 3.3 – 3.4
                     3.6 Annual supply of social re-lets (net)               Lettings/voids system for providers, LA and
                                                                             RSLs,
                                                                             CORE data for RSLs, HSSA data
                     3.7 Annual supply of intermediate                       LA, RSL and other providers’ lettings/voids
                     affordable housing available for re-let or              system and data on re-sales of sub-market
                     resale at sub market levels                             LCHO or shared equity schemes
                     3.8 Annual supply of affordable housing                 3.6 + 3.7


    9.1            Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need

    9.1.1          It is first necessary to estimate the number of dwellings vacated by current occupiers that
                   are fit for use by other households in need.                  This is an important consideration in
                   establishing the net levels of housing need, as the movement of these households within
                   affordable housing will have a nil effect in terms of housing need.


    9.1.2          Consequently it is necessary to rule out transfers within the stock that have a nil net effect
                   on the availability of affordable housing.


    9.1.3          Table 92 shows the numbers of households that moved within the respective local
                   authorities’ stock. Clearly there are only figures for Lincoln and North Kesteven as the only
                   authorities that have not transferred their stock to an RSL.




            57
                 Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance, Communities and Local Government, March 2007, p47

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                              Table 92: Local authority lettings into own stock
                                          East      City of    North             West    Coastal   Central
                        Boston BC      Lindsey      Lincoln Kesteven          Lindsey      HMA       HMA
        2002/3                   0           0          299         69            32          0       400
        2003/4                   0           0          265         71             0          0       336
        2004/5                   0           0          216         70             0          0       286
        2005/6                   0           0          239         61             0          0       300
          Source: HSSA 2006


9.2       Surplus stock

9.2.1     If there is surplus social housing stock this needs to be accounted for in the assessment. A
          certain level of voids is normal and allows for transfers and works on properties. However,
          where the rate is in excess of 3 per cent and properties are vacant for considerable periods
          of time, these should be counted as surplus stock.


9.2.2     Table 93 sets out the total housing stock and the number of vacant dwellings in each
          district. Two authorities - East Lindsey and West Lindsey - have surplus stock: 16 and 19
          respectively.

                                            Table 93: Surplus stock
                                 Boston        East     City of    North          West   Coastal   Central
                                     BC     Lindsey     Lincoln Kesteven       Lindsey     HMA       HMA
        Housing stock                5533     6541        9382      3857          4560     12074    17799
        Vacant dwellings               18        212          106        20        156       230      288
        % vacant dwellings           0.3%        3.2%     1.1%      0.5%          3.4%      1.9%     1.6%
        Proportion > 3%                          0.2%                             0.4%
        Total surplus stock             0         16            0         0         19         0        0
          Source: HSSA 2006


9.3       Committed supply of new affordable units

9.3.1     It is important to take account of the new (i.e. new build and conversions) social rented
          and intermediate affordable dwellings that are committed at the point of the assessment.
          Where possible this number should be recorded with information on size also.




134
                              Table 94: Breakdown of Actual District Completions 2003-06
                                         2003-04                           2004-05                     2005-06
                                                       Inter-                         Inter-                      Inter-
                                           Social     mediat                Social   mediat             Social   mediat
  DISTRICT                      Total     rented           e       Total   rented         e    Total   rented         e
 Boston                           441          45              4    284        20        10     268         7          39
 East Lindsey                     552          55              7    520        28         9     536       103          47
 City of Lincoln                  301            0            24    332         0         4     374        38           0
 North Kesteven                   499          17              0    451        17         0     538        96           0
 West Lindsey                     878          60             20    794        21        37     858        26          60
 Coastal HMA                      993         100             11    804        48        19     804       110          86
 Central HMA                     1678          77             44   1577        38        41    1770       121          60
               Sources: Total completion figures provided by Lincolnshire Development; Social Rent and
               Intermediate figures are from HSSA 2006 58

9.3.2          The picture of delivery of affordable housing across the HMA is once again quite mixed.
               However, in all authorities delivery of affordable homes dipped in 2004/5 from the previous
               year before going back up again in 2005/6 to a level beyond 2003/4 (except in the case of
               Boston which was pretty similar).

               (i)   Boston delivered 49 affordable homes in 2003/4, 30 in 2004/5 and 46 in 2005-06

               (ii) East Lindsey delivered 62 affordable homes in 2003/4, 37 in 2004/5 and 150 in 2005-06

               (iii) Lincoln delivered 24 affordable homes in 2003/4, 4 in 2004/5 and 38 in 2005-06

               (iv) North Kesteven delivered 17 affordable homes in 2003/4, 17 in 2004/5 and 96 in 2005-
                     06

               (v) West Lindsey delivered 80 affordable homes in 2003/4, 58 in 2004/5 and 86 in 2005-06


9.3.3          Table 95 below sets out the targets for completions, social rent and intermediate housing.
               On average over the three previous years:


                     Boston has exceeded its completions target and intermediate target by 14.1% and
                     96.3%, but only delivered 21.8% of its social housing target

                     East Lindsey has exceeded its intermediate target by 5.0%, but only delivered 25.1% of
                     its social housing target and 82.5% of its total target

                     Lincoln has failed to meet all three targets; only achieving 64.1% of completions, 9.0%
                     of social housing and 93.3% of intermediate housing

                     North Kesteven has failed to meet all three targets; only achieving 65.8% of
                     completions, 21.2% of social housing and 0.0% of intermediate housing



        58
             West Lindsey 2003-04 figures are for 15 months

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             West Lindsey has exceeded its completions target and intermediate target by 52.8% and
             254.5%, but only delivered 23.9% of its social housing target

                      Table 95: Breakdown of Actual District Completions 2003-06


                           Annual        Social rent annual target    Intermediate annual target
                         completions
    DISTRICT               target                 %         Number                  %      Number
    Boston                        290           38%             110             3%              9
    East Lindsey                  650           38%             247             3%             20
    City Of Lincoln               524           27%             141             2%             10
    North Kesteven                754           27%             204             2%             15
    West Lindsey                  552           27%             149             2%             11
    Coastal HMA                   940                           357                            29
    Central HMA                  1830                           494                            36
        Sources: Policies 14 and 15 of the Draft East Midlands Regional Plan


9.4     Units to be taken out of management

9.4.1   Local authorities and RSLs should have information about planned demolitions or
        redevelopment schemes that lead to net reductions in stock. The number of social-rented
        or intermediate affordable housing units to be taken out of management should not include
        Right-To-Buy sales as authorities are not required to re-house these households.


9.4.2   At this point in time, there is no evidence that any of the five districts have plans to
        demolish or redevelop stock that will result in net reductions in supply.



9.5     Total affordable housing stock available

9.5.1   This is the sum of:


             Dwellings currently occupied by households in need

             Surplus stock

             and committed additional housing stock

             minus units to be taken out of management




136
                                Table 96: Total affordable housing stock available
                                                                 East          City of          North            West
                                              Boston BC        Lindsey         Lincoln         Kesteven         Lindsey
         Dwellings currently occupied
                                                         0               0            239              61                  0
         by households in need

         Surplus stock                                   0            16                  0               0               19

         Committed additional housing
                                                        46           150                 38            96                 86
         stock
         Units to be taken out of
                                                         0               0                0               0                0
         management

         Total                                          46           166              277             157            105



9.6      Future annual supply of social re-lets (net)

9.6.1    In order to provide a figure for social re-lets that avoids one-off changes that can distort
         the number, it is advisable to calculate this on the basis of past trends; usually the average
         number of re-lets over the previous three years is taken as the predicted annual level. This
         excludes internal transfers and transfers of tenancies to other household members; only
         properties that come up for re-let to a new household are counted.


9.6.2    The numbers in Table 97 are a composite of both local authority and RSL lettings.

                                 Table 97: Annual supply of social re-lets
                                                     East          City of          North            West
          Period                   Boston BC       Lindsey         Lincoln         Kesteven         Lindsey
          2003/4                            448           446            731              267             207
          2004/5                            344           363            695              249             260
          2005/6                            382           397            706              209             294
          Average 2003-06                  391            402            711              242             254
          Average turnover                  7.1              6.1             7.6              4.3             5.6
         Source: HSSA 2006

9.6.3    In Boston, East Lindsey and Lincoln the number of new lettings fell in 2004/5 from the
         previous year, only to rise again the following year, albeit not to the level of 2003/4. In
         North Kesteven, the number of new lettings fell steadily year on year, whereas the opposite
         pattern was the case in West Lindsey.               In all five cases the fluctuations year on year
         support the case for averaging out the numbers over three years.


9.6.4    The other point to note is the differences in the turnover rates:




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        (i)   Lincoln with the highest number of social housing units (9,382) in the HMA and the
              highest proportion of all stock (23.4%) had the highest turnover rate of 7.6%.

        (ii) Boston has the next highest proportion of social housing (20.6%), but the lowest
              number (5,533), but had the second highest turnover rate.

        (iii) East Lindsey has the lowest proportion of social housing (10.4%) and the second highest
              number of units (6,541), but the turnover was the in the middle (6.1%).

        (iv) North Kesteven and West Lindsey have equivalent proportions of social housing (12.7%
              and 12.0% respectively), albeit with different numbers of units (5,616 and 4,560
              respectively), and have quite different rates of turnover (4.3% and 5.6% respectively).


9.6.5   These different turnover rates across the HMA will both reflect the population differences
        in the sub-region and the nature of the supply on offer. Obviously though they will also
        have an impact on the need for affordable housing, and demand for market housing, as
        they represent a constraint or otherwise on supply.



9.7     Future annual supply of intermediate affordable housing

9.7.1   The number of intermediate affordable housing units that come up for re-let or re-sale will
        increasingly play a role in the overall supply of affordable housing. Where operators of
        intermediate housing schemes monitor this, it is useful to include it in the supply figures.
        However, it should only include those properties that meet the definition of intermediate
        affordable housing as set out in PPS3. It should not include properties that are no longer
        affordable, such as social rented homes bought under the Right-to-Buy or shared equity
        homes where the purchaser has entirely bought out the landlord’s share.


9.7.2   Where homes are bought back as affordable housing by a RSL, or the money received by the
        landlord is used to fund future shared equity schemes through the recycling of capital
        grant, these units should be counted under the supply of new affordable housing (step 3.3).


9.7.3   At this point in time, there is no evidence of intermediate affordable housing units that
        have come up for re-let or re-sale that will result in net reductions in supply.



9.8     Future annual supply of affordable housing units

9.8.1   This is the sum of:


              Social rented units, and

              Intermediate affordable units



138
9.8.2    Steps 3.1 to 3.7 are brought together in Table 98. The annual supply of affordable housing
         is significantly higher in City of Lincoln and Boston compared with East Lindsey, North
         Kesteven and West Lindsey.

                           Table 98: Future annual supply of affordable housing units
                                                                    East        City of        North          West
                                                  Boston BC       Lindsey       Lincoln       Kesteven       Lindsey
         Social rented units                              391          402           711           242            254
         Intermediate affordable units                        -             -             -              -             -
         Total (Step 3.8)                                 391          402           711           242            254
         Proportion of total households                    1.5         0.7           1.8            0.5           0.7




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10            THE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS
              OF HOUSEHOLDS IN NEED

     10.1     Previous housing needs assessments

     10.1.1   Housing needs assessments were previously carried out in all five districts of Boston, East
              Lindsey, City of Lincoln, North Kesteven and West Lindsey. Each of these assessments uses
              specially commissioned household survey data to estimate the backlog of need and newly
              arising need.     As part of the Strategic Market Assessment 2007 the five housing need
              assessments will be updated to reflect the latest guidance from DCLG (April 2007), sharing
              a common methodology based on secondary data sources.


     10.1.2   Before presenting the updated housing needs assessments it is worth summarising the need
              for affordable housing as defined in previous assessments. Table 99 shows that, with the
              exception of West Lindsey, there was a shortfall of affordable housing across the housing

              market areas, at its greatest in East Lindsey. Outside has undertaken a review of all

              previous housing need assessments that they have undertaken and found that generally
              where a district shows a shortfall of affordable housing it will fall broadly within a range of
              0.5% variance from 1% of total households in the district. East Lindsey and City of Lincoln
              fall either side of this range, with the former showing proportionally high affordable
              housing need and the latter showing a disproportionately low level of affordable housing
              need.

                                Table 99: Summary of previous housing need assessments
                                             Total households                 Annual Shortfall/surplus as a
                                        referenced in housing   shortfall/surplus for  proportion of total
                                             need assessment      affordable housing            households
              Boston BC                                26072                      216                     0.8
              East Lindsey                             60000                    1112                      1.9
              City of Lincoln                          36643                      159                     0.4
              North Kesteven                           38870                      462                     1.2
              West Lindsey                             32872                      -39                    -0.1
              Source: HNA final reports for Boston BC 2004, East Lindsey 2005, City of Lincoln 2004, North
              Kesteven 2004 and West Lindsey 2003

     10.1.3   The differences between districts is further evidenced in Table 100 where the proportions
              of backlog need, newly arising need and affordable housing supply are shown in relation to
              total households in each district. North Kesteven has much higher backlog need, but lower



     140
         newly arising need than the other districts. The overall surplus of affordable housing in
         West Lindsey results from particularly low levels of newly arising need, where as the
         relatively small shortfall in City of Lincoln arises from the high levels of supply (albeit
         predominantly 1 bed room properties which are inappropriate for families) in the district.
         East Lindsey appears to have both low levels of backlog need and significantly lower levels
         of supply of affordable housing resulting in a greater shortfall than the other districts.

            Table 100: Summary of previous backlog, newly arising need and affordable supply
                                                Backlog need      Annual newly arising    Annual affordable
                                                                                 need                supply
                                        Number Proportion          Number Proportion     Number Proportion
                                                  of total                   of total              of total
                                               households                 households            households
         Boston BC                           144           0.6         640        2.5       453         1.7
         East Lindsey                        301           0.5        1444        2.4       392         0.7
         City of Lincoln                     245           0.7        1156        3.2      1046         2.9
         North Kesteven                      447           1.2         676        1.7       462         1.2
         West Lindsey                        145           0.4         331        1.0       399         1.2
         Source: HNA final reports for Boston BC 2004, East Lindsey 2005, City of Lincoln 2004, North
         Kesteven 2004 and West Lindsey 2003

10.1.4   Before updating these housing need assessment numbers it is necessary to consider the
         changes to house prices and annual incomes between 2004 and 2006, as far as these
         changes are likely to affect affordability.          Table 101 shows a comparison between the
         percentage increase in mean house prices from the Land Registry for the Oct-Dec quarters
         in 2004 and 2006 the percentage increase in mean annual earnings from the Survey of Hours
         and Earnings 2004 and 2006. Boston and North Kesteven show mean annual earnings rising
         faster than mean house prices between 2004 and 2006 whereas East Lindsey, City of Lincoln
         and West Lindsey show mean house prices rising faster than mean annual earnings over the
         same period. This is particularly pronounced in West Lindsey where mean house prices
         have increased by 10.1% in this period while mean annual earnings increased by only 0.3%.
         This would imply all other things being equal that the shortfall of affordable housing would
         be greater in East Lindsey, City of Lincoln and West Lindsey and lesser in Boston and North
         Kesteven in 2006 compared with 2004.




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                     Table 101: Mean house price and mean annual earnings change 2004 to 2006
                                                               Mean house price                       Mean annual earnings
                                                  2004          2006     % change           2004          2006   % change
             Boston BC                         134968        138674             2.7        16175         17451         7.9
             East Lindsey                      140629        153639             9.3        18186         18439         1.4
             City of Lincoln                   124477        133970             7.6        18976         19388         2.2
             North Kesteven                    156555        163752             4.6        18222         20635       13.2
             West Lindsey                      145304        159938            10.1        19122         19176         0.3
             Source: Land Registry and Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 8.7, ONS, 2004 and
             2006


10.2          Summary of net annual housing need

10.2.1       For the purposes of developing policy and strategy, it is common practice for need to be
             assessed by means of two varying models. Table 102 and Table 103 summarise the two
             different housing needs models explained in detail in Chapters 7 to 9.


10.2.2       Table 102 summarises Model 1, which draws from Census sources to calculate current
             housing need, and Table 103 summarises Model 2, which uses numbers from the Housing
             Register.


10.2.3       Both methods are equally valid and both are based upon CLG Guidance. Both are presented
             in acknowledgement of the CLG view, with which we concur, that no one methodological
             approach or use of a particular dataset will result in a definitive assessment of housing
             need and demand. 59


10.2.4       Model 2 will be adopted by the five local authorities in the study area as the data drawn
             from the Housing Register is more up-to-date and more accurately reflects people’s needs
             and aspirations. In addition it enables the five authorities to regularly review and refresh
             the data.


10.2.5       Therefore the estimates of annual housing need for each District set out in Model 2 are
             those that need to be compared with the interim affordable housing targets in Policy 15 of
             the Draft East Midlands Regional Plan (as set out in Table 75 and Table 76), and which will
             be considered in reviewing those targets




      59
           Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance Version 2, CLG, August 2007, p11


142
                       Table 102: Summary of net annual housing need (model1)
                                                             East        City of        North      West
                                           Boston BC       Lindsey       Lincoln       Kesteven   Lindsey
                                STAGE 1 CURRENT HOUSING NEED (see Chapter 7)
 1.1 Homeless households and those
 in temporary accommodation                        103             83          37            86             18
 1.2 Overcrowding and concealed
 households                                        150            338         185           140             36
 1.3 Other groups                                   68            158          89           101             89
 1.4 Total current housing need
 (gross) 1.1 + 1.2 (+ 1.3)                         322            579         311           327         143
                                STAGE 2 FUTURE HOUSING NEED (see Chapter 8)
 2.1 New household formation                       287            668         523           737         558
 2.2 Proportion of new households
 unable to buy or rent in the market               231            566         350           616         412
 2.3 Existing households falling into
 need                                               27             29          12             8             24
 2.4 Total newly arising housing need
 (2.1 x 2.2) + 2.3                                 258            595         362           624         436
                            STAGE 3 AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY (see Chapter 9)
 3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by
 households in need                                  0               0        239            61              0
 3.2 Surplus stock                                   0             16              0          0             19
 3.3 Committed supply of new
 affordable housing                                 46            150          38            96             86
 3.4 Units to be taken out of
 management                                          0               0             0          0              0
 3.5 Total affordable housing stock
 available (3.1 + 3.2 + 3.3 – 3.4)                  46            166         277           157         105
 3.6 Annual supply of social re-lets
 (net)                                             391            402         711           242         254
 3.7 Annual supply of intermediate
 affordable housing available for re-
 let or resale at sub market levels                  0               0             0          0              0
 3.8 Annual supply of affordable
 housing (3.6 + 3.7)                               391            402         711           242         254
                              ESTIMATE OF NET ANNUAL HOUSING NEED (model 1)
 ((1.4 minus 3.5)* 20%)+ 2.4 minus 3.8             -78            276        -342           416         190
         Note: 20% is the CLG recommended rate to reduce the backlog of need




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                     Table 103: Summary of net annual housing need (model 2)
                                                       East        City of        North      West
                                         Boston BC   Lindsey       Lincoln       Kesteven   Lindsey
                               STAGE 1 CURRENT HOUSING NEED (see Chapter 7)
1.4 Total current housing need
(gross)                                       1882       5136          3467          2518        1783
                               STAGE 2 FUTURE HOUSING NEED (see Chapter 8)
2.1 New household formation                    287        668           523           737         558
2.2 Proportion of new households
unable to buy or rent in the market            231        566           350           616         412
2.3 Existing households falling into
need                                            27         29            12             8             24
2.4 Total newly arising housing need
(2.1 x 2.2) + 2.3                              258        595           362           624         436
                          STAGE 3 AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY (see Chapter 9)
3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by
households in need                               0             0        239            61              0
3.2 Surplus stock                                0         16                0          0             19
3.3 Committed supply of new
affordable housing                              46        150            38            96             86
3.4 Units to be taken out of
management                                       0             0             0          0              0
3.5 Total affordable housing stock
available (3.1 + 3.2 + 3.3 – 3.4)               46        166           277           157         105
3.6 Annual supply of social re-lets
(net)                                          391        402           711           242         254
3.7 Annual supply of intermediate
affordable housing available for re-
let or resale at sub market levels               0             0             0          0              0
3.8 Annual supply of affordable
housing (3.6 + 3.7)                            391        402           711           242         254
                            ESTIMATE OF NET ANNUAL HOUSING NEED (model 2)
((1.4 minus 3.5)* 20%)+ 2.4 minus 3.8          234       1187           289           854         518
       Note: 20% is the CLG recommended rate to reduce the backlog of need




144
                                                        Housing needs
                     Clear increases in homelessness and council housing lists
                     Need for single bed accommodation in Boston particularly
                     Impact of migrant workers becoming less as communities adapt and enter
                     main stream markets
                     Lincoln has a mismatch between size and location – e.g. shortage of 2 bed
                     family homes in areas where it is needed
                     Prices in Gainsborough still appear affordable - Need for family homes and
                     single bed demand also on increase - Private renting is possible with group
                     share of larger dwellings. The difference between cost of new build and
                     existing stock is very big
                     West Lindsey is more than one market. Most of the district is rural and the
                     urban centre is Gainsborough. The rural housing experiences under
                     occupation
                     East Lindsey – coastal settlements experience inward migration from across
                     the UK
                     Huge numbers on housing waiting lists for key settlements in East Lindsey
                     Flood risk constraints and impacts on meeting market needs – can’t build
                     what market wants due to flood risk
                     Bungalows in Mablethorpe not looked at favourably – but no market for
                     other forms of housing
                     Affordable housing delivery needs to be as flexible as possible – recognise
                     that all parts of market relate – acknowledge that intermediate housing
                     plays important part
                      Increasing standards for sustainability will impact on affordability of new
                      development



10.3        Affordable housing

10.3.1      Affordable housing is that housing which is provided to meet the needs of the local
            population. It includes social rented and intermediate housing, provided to specified
            eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. PPS3 states that affordable
            housing should:

            (i)   Meet the needs of eligible households including availability at a cost low enough for
                  them to afford, determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices.

            (ii) Include provision for the home to remain at an affordable price for future eligible
                  households or, if these restrictions are lifted, for the subsidy to be recycled for
                  alternative affordable housing provision 60


10.3.2      PPS3 goes on to define social rented housing as:


     60
          Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3): Housing, Communities and Local Government, November 2006, p25

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                       Rented housing owned and managed by local authorities and registered social
                       landlords, for which guideline target rents are determined through the
                       national rent regime. It may also include rented housing owned or managed
                       by other persons and provided under equivalent rental arrangements…as
                       agreed with the local authority or with the Housing Corporation as a
                       condition of grant

10.3.3       And defines intermediate affordable housing as:

                       ‘Housing at prices and rents above those of social rent, but below market
                       price or rents, and which meet the criteria set out above. These can include
                       shared equity products (e.g. HomeBuy), other low cost homes for sale and
                       intermediate rent.

10.3.4       The definition does not exclude homes provided by private sector bodies or provided
             without grant funding. Where such homes meet the definition above, they may be
             considered, for planning purposes, as affordable housing. Whereas, those homes that do not
             meet the definition, for example, ‘low cost market’ housing, may not be considered, for
             planning purposes, as affordable housing.


10.3.5       A rule of thumb proposed by CLG 61 for assessing the scope for intermediate tenures in an
             area is to calculate the ratio of entry-level market house prices to social rents; where the
             former is more than fourteen times annual social rents, there is likely to be scope for
             intermediate affordable housing. Also where there is a significant difference between the
             cost of social housing and private rents.


10.3.6       First, Table 105 shows that there is a significant difference between social housing rents
             and private sector rents. In addition Table 104, demonstrates that the equivalent mortgage
             accessible for those on social housing rents is significantly below the lower quartile entry-
             level house price.

                        Table 104: Estimate of scope for intermediate housing (social rents)
                                       Average social                                Affordability     Mortgage
                                      housing rent pw Cost per annum                        (25%)     accessible
             Boston                              £53.12            £2,762.46           £11,049.86     £38,674.49
             East Lindsey                        £54.07            £2,811.90           £11,247.59     £39,366.56
             Lincoln                             £47.50            £2,470.00             £9,880.00    £34,580.00
             North Kesteven                      £50.06            £2,603.12           £10,412.48     £36,443.68
             West Lindsey                        £51.99            £2,703.38           £10,813.52     £37,847.31
             Source (of rents): CLG Live Tables 702 and 704




      61
           Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance Version 2, CLG, August 2007, p57


146
                      Table 105: Estimate of scope for intermediate housing (private rents)
                                      Average private rent                                     Difference to social
                                        pm (see Table 45)                Cost per annum               housing costs
            Boston                                       £401                   £4,812.00                    74.2%
            East Lindsey                                 £440                   £5,280.00                    87.8%
            Lincoln                                      £486                   £5,832.00                   136.1%
            North Kesteven                               £474                   £5,688.00                   118.5%
            West Lindsey                                 £423                   £5,076.00                    87.8%



10.3.7      Clearly in some parts of the country, some forms of tenure are more appropriate than
            others and are better suited to the local housing market and the local political situation.
            The following sections consider the contribution that discounted sale homes, shared
            ownership and shared equity could make to the delivery of affordable housing in the
            Central and Coastal HMAs.



10.4         Discounted sale homes

10.4.1      Table 106 below shows the difference in housing costs that would result from discounted
            sale housing at 10%, 20% and 30% of the entry-level dwelling.


10.4.2      Although discounted housing would result in reductions in housing costs for many
            households, the issue in the Housing Market Areas is the relatively low incomes.


                           Table 106: Housing costs for discounted market housing 62
                Entry-level
                  property
                price Oct –
                 Dec 2006                     10%       Income             20%       Income           30%     Income
Local authority         (£)              discount      required       discount      required     discount    required
Boston                  102,000.00 91,800.00 26,228.57 83,640.00 23,897.14 71,400.00 20,400.00
East Lindsey            115,000.00 103,500.00 29,571.43 94,300.00 26,942.86 80,500.00 23,000.00
Lincoln                   99,477.00 89,529.30 25,579.80 81,571.14 23,306.04 69,633.90 19,895.40
North Kesteven 123,000.00 110,700.00 31,628.57 100,860.00 28,817.14 86,100.00 24,600.00
West Lindsey            103,000.00 92,700.00 26,485.71 84,460.00 24,131.43 72,100.00 20,600.00
            Source: ASHE, Land Registry

10.4.3      Even households on median incomes could not afford a discounted property at £69,634
            (Lincoln) to £86,100 (North Kesteven) and the price is significantly out of reach, for some
            by a considerable way, for those on lower quartile incomes (see Table 107).                       In East


     62
          For comparative purposes we have assumed an income to mortgage multiplier of 3.5

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         Lindsey, the lower quartile earnings would need to rise by 172.0% for such a household to
         buy a home discounted by 30%. The smallest shortfall between earnings and house price is
         in Lincoln, where lower quartile earnings would need to be 74.4% higher than at present.

              Table 107: Lower quartile earnings compared to income
                       requirements for discounted housing

                                         Difference between LQ earnings and
                                  Lower income required for 30% discount
         Local authority        quartile
                                earnings
                                                Amount (£)               %

         Boston               £ 8,982.00         11,418.00            127.1%
         East Lindsey         £ 8,455.00         14,545.00            172.0%
         Lincoln              £11,410.00          8,485.40             74.4%
         North Kesteven       £11,098.00         13,502.00            121.7%
         West Lindsey         £ 8,223.00         12,377.00            150.5%
         Source: ASHE

10.4.4   Consequently it would seem that discounted sale homes cannot be regarded as affordable
         dwellings in the Central and Coastal Housing Market Areas.



10.5     Shared ownership

10.5.1   Table 108 shows the housing costs of a shared ownership dwelling where the household
         purchased a 30% or a 50% share of an entry-level dwelling.


10.5.2   This demonstrates that the income requirements for a household purchasing a 50% share of
         their home are reduced by 29.0%. For a household purchasing a 30% share of their home
         their income requirements are reduced by 40.6%.




148
                                Table 108: Housing costs for shared ownership dwelling
                                                                      Rental                                         Gross
                                                                  charge on                           Total        income
                                                        Unsold        unsold       Mortgage        monthly        required
                                        Price (£)     equity (£) equity 63 (£)           (£)       costs (£)            (£)
         Boston                       102,000.00                -             0        607.14        607.14      29,142.86
         50% equity share              51,000.00      51,000.00         127.50         303.57        431.07      20,691.43
         30% equity share              30,600.00      71,400.00         178.50         182.14        360.64      17,310.86
         East Lindsey                 115,000.00                -             0        684.52        684.52      32,857.14
         50% equity share              57,500.00      57,500.00         143.75         342.26        486.01      23,328.57
         30% equity share              34,500.00      80,500.00         201.25         205.36        406.61      19,517.14
         Lincoln                       99,477.00                -             0        592.13        592.13      28,422.00
         50% equity share              49,738.50      49,738.50         124.35         296.06        420.41      20,179.62
         30% equity share              29,843.10      69,633.90         174.08         177.64        351.72      16,882.67
         North Kesteven               123,000.00                -             0        732.14        732.14      35,142.86
         50% equity share              61,500.00      61,500.00         153.75         366.07        519.82      24,951.43
         30% equity share              36,900.00      86,100.00         215.25         219.64        434.89      20,874.86
         West Lindsey                 103,000.00                -             0        613.10        613.10      29,428.57
         50% equity share              51,500.00      51,500.00         128.75         306.55        435.30      20,894.29
         30% equity share              30,900.00      72,100.00         180.25         183.93        364.18      17,480.57



10.5.3     These housing costs compared to median and lower quartile incomes (Table 109) suggest
           that the role of shared ownership would be limited in the Housing Market Areas. Only in
           Lincoln does a shared ownership property at 30% become affordable or a household on a
           median income. The annual income shortfall for those on lower quartile incomes ranges
           from £5,473 in Lincoln to as much as £14,874 in East Lindsey.




     63
        Rental charge per month is assumed to be 3% of the unsold equity divided by 12. The charge can vary between 2%-
     4%.

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                 Table 109: Income for shared ownership compared to
                         median and lower quartile earnings

                                           Difference to      Difference to
                                                 median      lower quartile
              Boston                            -£14,237           -£20,161
              50% equity share                   -£5,785           -£11,709
              30% equity share                   -£2,405            -£8,329
              East Lindsey                      -£16,852           -£24,402
              50% equity share                   -£7,324           -£14,874
              30% equity share                   -£3,512           -£11,062
              Lincoln                           -£10,901           -£17,012
              50% equity share                   -£2,659            -£8,770
              30% equity share                      £638            -£5,473
              North Kesteven                    -£17,766           -£24,045
              50% equity share                   -£7,574           -£13,853
              30% equity share                   -£3,498            -£9,777
              West Lindsey                      -£12,991           -£21,206
              50% equity share                   -£4,456           -£12,671
              30% equity share                   -£1,043            -£9,258



10.5.4   As with discounted sale housing, shared ownership reduces households’ income
         requirements for entering the housing market. Shared ownership has a greater impact than
         discounted sale housing, although it would still not be an affordable option for many of
         those households identified as being in housing need.



10.6     Shared equity

10.6.1   Table 110 below shows the difference in housing costs that would result from a shared
         equity dwelling where a purchaser bought at 30% or 50% of the price of the entry-level
         dwelling.


10.6.2   It is only with a shared equity home at 30% of the market value that a household on lower
         quartile income could afford in Boston, Lincoln and West Lindsey.     It would be highly
         unusual for shared equity packages to be as low as 30% equity.




150
                                     Table 110: Housing costs for shared equity
                                                                                       Difference to lower
                                                          Price    Required income         quartile income
         Boston                                    102,000.00            £29,142.86              -£20,161
         50% equity share                            51,000.00           £14,571.43               -£5,589
         30% equity share                            30,600.00             £8,742.86                 £239
         East Lindsey                              115,000.00            £32,857.14              -£23,875
         50% equity share                            57,500.00           £16,428.57               -£7,447
         30% equity share                            34,500.00             £9,857.14                -£875
         Lincoln                                     99,477.00           £28,422.00              -£19,440
         50% equity share                            49,738.50           £14,211.00               -£5,229
         30% equity share                            29,843.10             £8,526.60                 £455
         North Kesteven                            123,000.00            £35,142.86              -£26,161
         50% equity share                            61,500.00           £17,571.43               -£8,589
         30% equity share                            36,900.00           £10,542.86               -£1,561
         West Lindsey                              103,000.00            £29,428.57              -£20,447
         50% equity share                            51,500.00           £14,714.29               -£5,732
         30% equity share                            30,900.00             £8,828.57                 £153


10.7     Dwelling size

10.7.1   CLG Guidance does not recommend a method for estimating the appropriate size and type
         of dwelling required in a local authority area.           One method for determining size is to
         consider the size profile of lower quintile households (i.e. those in need) nationally. This
         would suggest a size distribution of new dwellings as set out in Table 111: 36.0% one bed,
         52.0% two bed and 12.0% three bed or more.

                  Table 111: Preference by size – lower quintile households (%)
                                                                  One       Two    Three +
          Single adults                               36.0        36.0
          Two or more adults                          35.0                  35.0
          1 adult with children                       12.0                  12.0
          2 adults with 1 child                         5.0                  5.0
          2 adults with 2 children                      5.0                             5.0
          2 adults with 3 + children                    4.0                             4.0
          3 or more adults with children                3.0                             3.0
          Total                                      100.0        36.0     52.0        12.0
         Source: National Statistics: lower quintile household size



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10.7.2   An alternative and possibly more accurate would be to assess the demand from the Housing
         Register; the results are shown in Table 112.

                           Table 112: Preference by size – Housing Register (%)
                                                                           Four or      Un-
                                               One        Two     Three      more specified
          Boston                              31.3%      41.9%     22.3%      4.5%       0.0%
          East Lindsey                        44.0%      35.8%     18.6%      1.6%       0.0%
          Lincoln                              0.0%       0.0%      0.0%      0.0%     100.0%
          North Kesteven                      20.7%      45.6%     17.0%      1.3%      15.5%
          West Lindsey                        31.7%      44.1%     21.2%      3.0%       0.0%
          Mean (excluding Lincoln)           31.9%       41.9%    19.8%       2.6%       3.9%
         Source: HSSA 2006

10.7.3   This would suggest that across the HMAs 32% of new affordable homes should to be 1 bed,
         42% should be 2 bed and 20% should be 3 bed with the remainder four or more. The
         distribution varies between the constituent authorities and since bedroom numbers in the
         HSSA are unspecified for Lincoln, the city may wish to adopt the HMA mean as an
         appropriate indication.



10.8     Households requiring market housing

10.8.1   CLG does not present a clear approach to identifying future households requiring market
         housing, despite suggesting that this is an important part of the evidence base for housing
         partnerships. A considerable amount of work has been done to project the future number
         of households in the HMAs and the future number of dwellings: Table 64 (on page 110) and
         Table 87 (on page 131) show the figures for household growth based upon population
         change and constrained by dwelling numbers respectively (Table 65 on page 111 compares
         these different models of household growth). Table 64 presents the picture of the number
         of new households that will be seeking dwellings in the HMAs unconstrained by
         development plans and as such could be used to identify the number of new households
         requiring market housing.


10.8.2   The problem that emerges from the modelling process is that it depicts a requirement for
         affordable housing that outstrips the dwelling led growth planned for East Lindsey and
         North Kesteven, whilst the picture is only marginally improved in East Lindsey by a
         comparison with population led figures.




152
          Table 113: Comparison of household projections and the requirement for affordable
                                              housing
                                                    Boston          East    City of    North      West
                                                      BC          Lindsey   Lincoln   Kesteven   Lindsey
              Annual household change:
          1                                              400         1200       400      1000        800
              population led figures
              Need for affordable housing as
          2                                           58.5%         98.9%     72.3%     85.4%      64.8%
              % of population led change
              Requirement for future
          3                                              166           13       111       146        282
              market housing
              Annual household change:
          4                                              287          668       523       737        558
              dwelling led figures
              Need for affordable housing as
          5                                           81.5%        177.7%     55.3%    115.9%      92.8%
              % of dwelling led change
              Requirement for future
          6                                               53         N/A        234       N/A         40
              market housing



10.8.3   The Strategic Housing Market Assessment modelling process presents a challenge for the
         districts in the HMAs. The future households requiring market housing can be seen in two
         ways. First, they could be those households not in need of affordable housing identified
         through population projections (i.e. unconstrained household projections minus households
         with need for affordable housing) as set out in Row 3 of Table 113. Second, they could be
         the number of households who make up the remaining proportion of dwellings to be built
         identified in the RSS after the housing needs targets have been set by each authority.



10.9     Targets

10.9.1   In terms of developing affordable housing targets in local development documents, the
         SHMA can provide indications of suitable targets. The regional affordable housing targets
         and the level of housing provision required for each local authority area as set out in the
         Regional Spatial Strategy provide the framework. As PPS3 explains, authorities need to
         consider other factors when determining affordable housing targets including the policy
         definition of affordable housing, an assessment of economic viability within the area and
         the likely levels of finance available for affordable housing.


10.9.2   The target number of total annual completions for the five authorities in the HMAs is shown
         in Table 75 above, which also sets out the delivery of social rented homes (Table 76 shows
         the delivery of intermediate housing). Table 114 compares these targets with the estimate
         of annual housing need in Table 103 above.




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                     Table 114: Dwelling targets and affordable housing need
                                                        Estimate of        Need as % of
                                         Annual      annual housing              target
                               completion target              need
           Boston                             290                234              80.7%
           East Lindsey                       650               1187             182.6%
           Lincoln                            524                289              55.2%
           North Kesteven                     754                854             113.3%
           West Lindsey                       552                518              93.8%



10.9.3    In East Lindsey and North Kesteven the number generated by the housing needs model
          exceeds the total completions target; in the case of the former by 82.6% and the latter by
          13.3%. In the case of the three other authorities the proportion generated by the model
          ranges from 55.2% to 93.8% of their respective targets.


10.9.4    Consequently the evidence supports as a minimum the proposed draft RSS targets of 41%
          affordable housing in Boston and East Lindsey and 29% affordable housing in Lincoln, North
          Kesteven and West Lindsey. However, the evidence would also support higher targets being
          set particularly for social housing and particularly in East Lindsey and North Kesteven.


10.9.5    As the figures suggested by the model are greater than the Districts’ total completion
          targets for affordable housing and past performance on delivery of affordable housing,
          there is clearly a need to look very carefully at the sites coming forward in the future and
          their suitability for mixed, sustainable developments as the Councils may need to seek a
          considerably higher proportion of affordable housing than has been the target in the past.


10.9.6    The Councils will need to take account of these findings to set a suitable planning target for
          future development that takes into account the need for affordable housing as well as the
          long-term requirement to maintain a sustainable housing market.



10.10 Future monitoring

10.10.1   The new approach to planning for housing set out in PPS3 requires authorities to continually
          monitor trends and activities in housing markets. Monitoring needs to be undertaken on a
          continuous, pro-active basis and linked in with other monitoring requirements.


10.10.2   Guidance draws a distinction between monitoring and updating housing market
          assessments. Monitoring focuses on now and what may happen in the future and compares
          this to existing policies and targets to determine what needs to be done.         Updating is
          defined as a continual process of tracking short-term changes in housing market conditions.


154
10.10.3   The Strategic Housing Market Assessment provides a robust basis for developing housing and
          planning policies by considering current and future housing need and demand over the next
          five years and beyond.


10.10.4   The requirement that monitoring activities should contain information on the extent to
          which the policies set out in Local Development Frameworks and Regional Spatial Strategies
          respectively are being achieved can in part be met by the maintenance and updating of the
          housing needs model.


10.10.5   By maintaining the model and updating annually, it will be possible to see whether an
          increase in the delivery of affordable housing through firmer and higher targets than have
          been achieved previously has the desired effect of reducing the shortfalls across the HMAs.


10.10.6   Other key aspects of housing markets intelligence that should be maintained and updated
          include:

          (i)   Income and affordability

          (ii) Numbers and types of need and demand

          (iii) Movements between tenures

          (iv) Right to Buy

          (v) House prices

          (vi) Empty and second homes

          (vii) Housing Register

          (viii) Completions and affordable housing supply




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11              HOUSING REQUIREMENTS OF
                SPECIFIC HOUSEHOLD GROUPS
     11.1       Introduction

     11.1.1     This chapter looks at the housing requirements of specific household groups. The following
                sections focus on the housing requirements of older people, households with specific needs
                and minority and hard to reach households.



     11.2       Older People
                                                              Older people
                         People don’t feel they are old until they are over 75
                         Urban areas have concentration of older people, but they no longer want
                         bedsits; people’s expectations are greater, they want spare bedrooms
                         Older people want responsive and flexible accommodation that will change
                         as their needs change that maintains independence
                         The single storey model presents flood risk issues on the coast (move
                         out/safer locations)
                         More education needed into the options
                         No pull factor out of property for residents if they are under-occupying
                         Encouragement of older people into areas impacts upon costs and services –
                         can Lincolnshire continue?

     11.2.1     This section looks at the housing needs of older people both in general housing and
                specialist accommodation across the five districts. The home is recognised as a key factor
                in determining a person’s quality of life with research suggesting older people spend
                between 70 – 90% of their time in their home 64 .


     11.2.2     Table 25 provides details of the population aged over 60 in each district. East Lindsey has
                the highest absolute number of older people and the highest percentage of their
                population, 28.9%.        Residents over 80 in East Lindsey total 7,048 or 5.4% of the total
                population. Lincolnshire has the highest 60+ population in the East Midlands region with
                almost a quarter of the population over the age of 60.




           64
             Baltes, M.M., Wahl, H-W, Schmid-Furstoss, U. (1990) The daily life of the elderly at home. Activity patterns, personal
           control and functional health. Journal of Gerontology Social Sciences, 45, 173-179, cited in A Sure Start to Later Life:
           Ending Inequalities for Older People, ODPM, 2006



     156
                                           Table 115: Population aged 60+
                         Boston          East Lindsey             Lincoln          N. Kesteven        West Lindsey
          Age           No.          %     No.         %       No.           %       No.         %       No.       %
          60 - 64     3261      23.0     8791       23.3      3674     21.8         5483      24.3      4618    24.1
          65 – 69     2964      20.9     8270       21.9      3305     19.6         4907      21.7      4168    21.8
          70 – 74     2873      20.3     7597       20.1      3248     19.3         4394      19.4      3753    19.6
          75 – 79     2254      15.9     6060       16.0      2991     17.8         3635      16.1      2956    15.5
          80 - 84     1483      10.5     3948       10.5      2140     12.7         2374      10.5      2036    10.6
          85 – 89       863       6.1    2066        5.5       991          5.9     1246       5.5      1070     5.6
          90 – 94       362       2.6      808       2.1       404          2.4      453       2.0       416     2.2
          95 – 99        78       0.6      202       0.5          84        0.5          99    0.4        87     0.5
          100 +          10       0.1       24       0.1          12        0.1           9    0.0        19     0.1
                     14148      100.0    37766      100.0     16849    100.0       22600      100.0     19123   100.0
          % of total
          population            25.4                28.9               19.7                   24.0              24.1
         Source: Census 2001

11.2.3   Single pensioner households represent over 14.0% of the population in all five districts.
         East Lindsey has the highest proportion of single pensioner households, 16.1% of
         households, followed by Boston with 15.8%. The information on household composition is
         important in assessing possible housing needs of older people.                       The number of single
         pensioner households has implications for types of housing as well as care and support
         services within each district as it suggests that the older person may not benefit from care
         and support within the home from another member of their household if the need arose.
         Nationally there is a growing trend of an increasing number of older people living alone.


11.2.4   The projected change of different age cohorts in the population from 2006 – 2026 is
         detailed in Table 116. Apart from Lincoln, all districts show a higher increase in all age
         cohorts than the regional average. This is particularly noticeable in the older age group
         aged 75 or over where the population is expected to more than double in West Lindsey,
         East Lindsey and North Kesteven. The highest rate of projected increase is the number of
         people aged over 75 in North Kesteven, which is projected to increase by 113.0%.


                                     Table 116: Projected change 2006 - 2026
                                            East                              N.                 West           East
          Age             Boston         Lindsey            Lincoln     Kesteven              Lindsey       Midlands
          50 – 64             16.8           19.6               7.8               29.3           21.9           14.8
          65 – 74             50.8           59.4              35.9               62.8           63.7           43.5
          75+                 81.4          105.9              47.0           113.0             100.0           69.5
         Source: ONS 2004 based population changes

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11.2.5   These figures demonstrate the importance of making sure housing options and appropriate
         housing for an increasing older population are available. The absolute number of older
         people is increasing and the proportion of older people within the population is also
         increasing. The housing need of a person aged 85 and those of a person aged 60 are likely
         to be very different. The type of accommodation needed may be different and the demand
         for health and social care services is likely to increase as a person ages. Lincolnshire
         Housing Strategy for Older People 2004 – 7 recognises:


               Most older people want to stay in their own homes longer

               The expectations and aspirations of older people are higher than before

               The number of older people who have a physical and / or mental frailty is increasing.

11.2.6   Maintaining independence and giving people the choice to continue to live in their own
         homes for as long as they can is a key national and local driver bringing increased
         partnership between housing, primary care, community health services, social services as
         well as a variety of voluntary organisations. Effective housing for older people is not just
         about the bricks and mortar of the building. It requires this partnership approach.


11.2.7   Lincolnshire’s Housing Strategy for Older People states its main priority is to ensure that
         there is diversity and choice in the provision of housing and services, which promote
         independence and that are responsive to all older people’s needs and preferences. Unmet
         needs identified in the strategy as issues of concern for older people are:


               More independent living opportunities

               More flexibility and choice in housing, care and support options and advice on what is
               available

               Less waiting time for adaptations and equipment

               Increased insulation and help with heating and other energy saving measures

               New homes being designed should take into account the needs of older people. For
               example smaller properties as older people under occupy their current accommodation.
               Two bedroom bungalows are the property type most aspired to.

11.2.8   Enabling older people to remain in their existing accommodation has implications in terms
         of:


               stock condition and maintenance of the property,

               ability to keep the home adequately heated

               provision of timely adaptations and equipment as necessary



158
                 support and assistance if greater need

                 wider accessible services in the area to encourage continuing independent living.

11.2.9      A recently completed countywide Needs Audit 65 looking at older people’s housing needs
            considered indicators of need for services in the home whether through adaptations to
            general housing or specialist housing provision. The details are provided in Table 117. East
            Lindsey with the largest older population shows the highest absolute numbers.


                                        Table 117: Indicators of need within the home
                                                  Difficulty with bathing,
              District                                      showering etc               Difficulty with steps and stairs
              Boston                                                        836                                    1172
              East Lindsey                                                 2185                                    3083
              Lincoln                                                      1014                                    2022
              North Kesteven                                               1315                                    1856
              West Lindsey                                                 1109                                    1558
            Source: Contact Consulting

11.2.10     Enabling older people to remain independent and in control in their own homes involves
            partnership working and a key player within this framework is the Supporting People
            Programme and the local services it provides. Lincolnshire’s Supporting People Services
            recently carried out a strategic review 66 of older people’s services. Following consultation
            with various service providers, some key observations on unmet current and future needs
            were:


                 Current service provision was seen to generally meet client needs but most clients
                 could helpfully receive more service, and there was believed to be a significant unmet
                 need

                 The level of need is growing, and referrals are tending to be at a higher age and level
                 of dependency than previously

                 Alarm systems are seen as one of the most cost effective services. They can provide a
                 foundation for other services being provided to clients

                 It should not be assumed that there is an inexorable move towards sheltered or
                 residential care as dependency levels rise. Increasingly people wish to remain in their
                 own homes, but need the right support to do so.




     65
          Lincolnshire Needs Audit 2007 Contact Consulting – currently at draft stage
     66
          Report on Older People’s Services and Community Alarm Services, Supporting People Programme 2005

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11.2.11      The report recommends increased flexibility in service provision with a move away from
             the traditional sheltered housing model to a range of floating support services from low-
             level care to extra care.


11.2.12      The Needs Audit 67 examines current and future housing provision in each district in a range
             of different types of accommodation using calculations developed by Housing LIN at the
             Department of Health to indicate possible future levels of provision required. The
             conclusions have been collated in the following tables by accommodation type.


11.2.13      Sheltered housing is considered not only in the traditional form as social rented
             accommodation but also as an option for private leasing for older owner occupiers as shown
             in Table 118 and Table 119. The tables detail the number of units / places of sheltered
             housing for rent from a social landlord or from a private leasehold sheltered housing
             scheme available at the current time and the number resulting from the ratio calculations
             based on provision required per 1,000 of the population aged over 75.


11.2.14      Figures for social rented sheltered housing indicate a reduction in the overall number.
             Requirements in Boston show the greatest percentage drop and East Lindsey has the highest
             absolute number of units to decrease. East Lindsey’s Housing Strategy 68 notes growing
             unpopularity for the traditional sheltered housing units particularly bedsits and those in
             rural isolated areas.

                                     Table 118: Social rented sheltered housing required
                                                                                                Resulting number of
               District                    Current provision          Increase or decrease                    units
               Boston                                         611                        -346                  265
               East Lindsey                                  1068                        -378                  690
               Lincoln                                        564                        -229                  335
               North Kesteven                                 556                        -141                  415
               West Lindsey                                   481                        -136                  345
             Source: Contact Consulting




      67
           Lincolnshire Needs Audit 2007 Contact Consulting – currently at draft stage
      68
           East Lindsey Housing Strategy 2005 – 2010 Special Needs and Specific Groups



160
                             Table 119: Private leasehold sheltered housing required
                                                                                    Resulting number of
           District                  Current provision       Increase or decrease                 units
           Boston                                       26                   372                   398
           East Lindsey                                 93                   942                  1035
           Lincoln                                      46                   457                   503
           North Kesteven                             150                    473                   623
           West Lindsey                                 30                   488                   518
          Source: Contact Consulting

11.2.15   The calculations for private leasehold sheltered housing however indicate a dramatic
          increase in the number of units provided with East Lindsey requiring 942 units.


11.2.16   It is suggested that these tables illustrate the change in direction required in the provision
          of sheltered housing but further research is necessary on assessing the extent of interest in
          private leasehold sheltered housing. It may be that although some owner occupiers over
          the age of 75 would wish to move to private leasehold sheltered housing, the number who
          would be interested is not as high as the calculations suggest. There may also be interest
          in other alternatives – for example retirement villages.


11.2.17   Table 120 and Table 121 look at indicative levels of need for Registered Care Homes in the
          five districts based on numbers of the population aged over 75. Table 121 shows very high
          levels of nursing care available particularly in East Lindsey and Lincoln but insufficient
          provision of care homes providing personal care.             Table 120 suggests North Kesteven
          particularly suffers from a lack of personal care homes.


                           Table 120: Registered Care Home – personal care required
                                                                                    Resulting number of
           District                  Current provision       Increase or decrease                 units
           Boston                                     204                    141                   345
           East Lindsey                               848                     49                   897
           Lincoln                                    430                      6                   436
           North Kesteven                             262                    278                   540
           West Lindsey                               361                     88                   449
          Source: Contact Consulting




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                          Table 121: Registered Care Home – nursing care required
                                                                                Resulting number of
           District                Current provision   Increase or decrease                   units
           Boston                               379                     -167                      212
           East Lindsey                         890                     -338                      552
           Lincoln                              558                     -290                      268
           North Kesteven                       510                     -178                      332
           West Lindsey                         468                     -192                      276
          Source: Contact Consulting

11.2.18   Again it is suggested that these tables illustrate the direction of travel for Registered Care
          Homes but further research may be required on the extent of change in provision.


11.2.19   Lincolnshire Housing Strategy for Older People recognised the need for increased Extra Care
          Housing across the county and recommended identification of numbers of units required as
          well as consideration of how best to provide them either through remodelling of existing
          sheltered schemes or new builds. Two Extra Care schemes have been constructed in East
          Lindsey with a further scheme intended. Further information and explanation of the role of
          extra care housing may need to be disseminated to the older population in order to
          increase understanding of this type of accommodation and assess extent of provision
          required.


11.2.20   Lincolnshire Housing Strategy for Older People 2004 – 07 identified various unmet needs and
          issues of concern for older people across the county.       It is recommended that as this
          strategy approaches its end date and there is a review of progress on achievement of its
          objectives, the subsequent Housing Strategy for Older People continues consultation with
          the older population to assess their aspirations and needs including their views on sheltered
          housing provision.      For example, how great is the preference for private leasehold
          sheltered housing? And would older people like to see remodelling of social rented
          sheltered housing?


11.2.21   The key preference of older people to stay in their own home requires provision of low
          level support in order to enable older people to maintain their independence, choice and
          control. Further consultation with older people is needed to explore the preferred choices
          of low-level support.


11.2.22   The older persons housing market requires a range of choice and housing options with
          accessible information on the different services and housing provision available.




162
11.3     Households with specific needs

11.3.1   There is no single source for identifying the unmet needs of those people with special needs
         who may require housing to be purpose built or specially adapted. This section uses
         information about people with long-term limiting illness and disabled facilities grants data
         to provide indicative information about levels of potential need and delivery of
         adaptations. The Housing Strategies of the Local Authorities of the Central and Coastal
         HMAs also provide indications of groups of vulnerable and hard-to-reach people with unmet
         housing need. Housing needs studies in the City of Lincoln and East Lindsey also provide
         supplementary data. Supporting People service indicators contribute to the overall picture
         of groups having housing requirements to the extent that sustaining independent living for
         socially excluded groups often depends on the inter-relationship between wrap-around
         support and appropriate housing. However, to better understand the current housing
         requirements of people with disabilities, it is recommended that qualitative assessments
         involving stakeholders and/or service users and further baseline review are undertaken to
         explore in greater depth some of the issues raised below of unmet need, reasons for unmet
         needs, and options for addressing needs.


11.3.2   An indication of the proportions of the household population who may have a requirement
         for adaptations to their home is provided by the Census 2001 data on Households with a
         person with a LLTI and their age as Table 122 shows. The data provides indications for
         comparison across Local Authorities of levels of disability, although not all people included
         here would have required adaptations to their home. The data shows East Lindsey had the
         highest levels of households with at least one person with LLTI (40%), compared to Boston
         (36.0%); Lincoln (35.6%); West Lindsey (34.3%); and North Kesteven (32.8%). East Lindsey
         also had the highest levels of households with 2 residents with LLTI, (10.3%), compared to
         Boston (7.7%), West Lindsey (7.3%), North Kesteven (7.0%) and Lincoln (6.8%). Among the
         older household population (aged over 65) with one resident with LLTI, proportions are
         highest in East Lindsey (13.8%), followed by Boston (12.1%), then West Lindsey (11.7%),
         while North Kesteven (11.4%) and Lincoln (10.8%) have lower proportions.




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                                 Table 122: Households with a person with LLTI
                                                                                 North
                           Boston          East Lindsey        Lincoln          Kesteven         West Lindsey
          Households     No.     %         No.     %         No.     %         No.     %         No.     %
          No people
          with LLTI      15343   64.0      32681   58.9      23964   65.4      26109   67.2      21590   65.7
          1 resident
          with a LLTI    6563    27.4      16492   29.7      9711    26.5      9609    24.7      8503    25.9
          0 to 15         243        1.0     604       1.1    460        1.3    404        1.0    390        1.2
          16 to 44       1274        5.3    2665       4.8   2367        6.5   1709        4.4   1461        4.4
          45 to 59       1514        6.3    3838       6.9   2164        5.9   2103        5.4   1936        5.9
          60 to 64        610        2.5    1718       3.1    787        2.1    950        2.4    855        2.6
          65 to 74       1233        5.1    3453       6.2   1496        4.1   1885        4.8   1583        4.8
          75+            1689        7.0    4214       7.6   2437        6.7   2558        6.6   2278        6.9
          2+ residents
          with a LLTI    1843        7.7    5726   10.3      2500        6.8   2729        7.0   2413        7.3
          All
          households     23990   100.0     55532   100.0     36645   100.0     38871   100.0     32872   100.0
         Source. Census 2001

11.3.3   Following assessments of need on disabled persons by social services, where adaptations
         are likely to exceed £1000 a recommendation is made to the Council for grant assistance.
         The process of application has involved delays due to the challenge of obtaining additional
         funding and procedural issues. The number of applications has also increased due to several
         factors including Government policy on promoting independence and encouraging people to
         stay in their own homes, and the ageing of the general population. In West Lindsey, for
         example, as of September 2006 the council had approved 27 Mandatory DFG grants from 1
         April 2006, with work going on a further 30 cases which would fully commit the DFG
         budget. There were at that time 63 further clients waiting for visits while the council could
         not process these applications. Clearly, in any case, numbers with LLTI far outstrip the
         numbers of DFGs.


11.3.4   Information about the numbers of mandatory disabled facilities grants completed and the
         total expenditure on mandatory grants over a four-year period for the five Local Authorities
         is shown in Table 123.        The table also shows planned expenditure for 2006-2007 and
         proposed expenditure for 2007-2008 (£ thousand). Compared to high and rising numbers of
         grants and expenditure in East Lindsey, and in Boston, it is noticeable that in Lincoln and
         West Lindsey numbers of grants fell between 2004-2005 and 2005-2006.




164
                                        Table 123: Mandatory Disabled Facilities Grants
                                                                                              North
                                 Boston           East Lindsey            Lincoln            Kesteven       West Lindsey
                                             E                   E                   E                  E               E
              Year              No.     (£000)      No.     (£000)      No.     (£000)       No.   (£000)    No.   (£000)
              2002-3003          58       211       116       447         42      132         42    132       78     200
              2003-2004          72       288       110       473         50      211         51    225       79     248
              2004-2005          83       231       121       557         41      393         40    228       79     307
              2005-2006         100       290       200       926         32      254         43    226       58     374
              2006-2007
              (planned)         100       376       320      1568         35      275         40    228       50     361
              2007-2008
              (proposed)        100       375       170       853         35      275         50    300       50     361
            Source. HSSA Appendix 2006

11.3.5      An indication of the amount of resources which each District has been able to spend during
            2006-2007 is provided in Table 124. This shows each authority’s total DFG budget, the
            amount of Government Subsidy received, any additional funding provided by the authority,
            and the average time to process a DFG. The table provides some indication of the
            unevenness of assistance across local authorities, and more particularly differences
            between waiting times.


                                      Table 124: Disabled Facilities Grants resources
                                                                  East                           North           West
              Local authority                    Boston        Lindsey          Lincoln       Kesteven        Lindsey
                                                             £1,100,000
              Total DFG budget               £300,000                 0        £175,000        £228,000      £361,000
              Govt Subsidy                   £116,000         £365,000         £105,000        £137,000      £165,000
              Additional capital by
              LA                             £106,667         £491,667                 N/a          N/a       £86,000
              Length of waiting list       2-6 months      2-6 months       2-6 months              N/a     18 months
            Source. W. Lindsey District Council Community Committee minutes September 2006

11.3.6      The establishment of a disability housing register is a priority aim for West Lindsey
            Council 69 . Once this is achieved Countywide, it would facilitate assessment of need.


11.3.7      Local housing strategies and needs assessments lend support to the picture outlined above
            of shortfalls in adaptations, the challenge of the delivery of mandatory disabled facilities
            grants (DFGs) to enable adaptations to be undertaken for those in private properties, and


     69
          West Lindsey District Council Community Committee. Minutes. 1st June 2006.

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             shortfalls of accommodation related support to people with physical disabilities in
             particular (see section 11.3.21 below). A recurrent theme is to ensure effective use is being
             made of adapted properties through the Housing Needs Register, and strengthen
             partnership work with Supporting People. There has been a recurring call for a Physical
             Disability strategy to develop plans for purpose built accommodation in the local authority
             areas. There are concerns that a dispersed rural population makes access to services more
             difficult. Those households with special needs members are more likely to be in small
             households (one or two persons); socially rented housing; and living in unsuitable housing
             than non-special needs households.


11.3.8       Boston’s Housing Needs study 70 found that 24.6% of all the Borough’s households (6,421)
             contain members with support needs (39.1% of these have ‘walking difficulty’ and 24.4%
             have limiting long term illness. 1,138 households with mobility problems lived in a home
             not meeting their needs. Most frequent adaptation needs for those with mobility problems
             were for handrails/grabrails (475) and a downstairs toilet (318), and vertical stairlift (201).
             Boston’s Housing Strategy 71 highlights concerns over levels of central funding for
             adaptations, although the council completed over 65 adaptations each year.


11.3.9       East Lindsey’s Housing Needs Study 72 highlights that the highest concentrations of those
             with health problems or disability which limit their daily activities are within Chapel St
             Leonards, Mablethorpe and Skegness wards.


11.3.10      East Lindsey District Council’s Housing Strategy contains a supplementary document
             concerning special needs and specific groups 73 . Concerning people with physical disability,
             the highlights needs and limitations in services across Lincolnshire:


                  up to 150 young people with a physical disability would be returning to the county
                  requiring accommodation with support in 5 years

                  urgent need to develop short-term intensive support services for those having serious
                  sight loss, which could result in alternative accommodation being required

                  in October 2004 in East Lindsey there were 1,186 physically disabled people included in
                  housing applications, but only 262 adapted properties suitable in the social housing
                  stock.

11.3.11      Plans being pursued by ELDC to address needs included:




      70
           Boston Borough Housing Needs Study, Fordham Research, 2005
      71
           Boston Housing Strategy 2005-2009.
      72
           Housing Needs in East Lindsey, Fordham Research
      73
           East Lindsey District Council, Special Needs and Specific Groups, Housing Strategy 2005-2010 Supplementary Document



166
                 targeting partners to deliver 5% of affordable housing programme as ‘enhanced physical
                 disability’ accommodation and 30% of the development programme to be single storey

                 delivering 450 DFG adaptations by March 07

11.3.12     Joint funding of additional learning disabilities accommodation has been provided; while
            there was an intention to establish a protocol about levels of support to prevent tenancy
            failure.


11.3.13     Concerning people with mental health issues, the East Lindsey District Council’s Housing
            Strategy highlights needs including:


                 Lack of accommodation, including move-on accommodation to facilitate independence

                 Crisis management units in short supply along with respite beds.

11.3.14     East Lindsey District Council (ELDC) has been working towards a housing strategy to
            coordinate and address mental health issues. Options being pursued included 20 additional
            units for people with mental health needs.


11.3.15     The City of Lincoln Housing Needs Study 2004 74 included a survey-based review of
            household members who fall in to specific special needs groups. The survey found that
            overall there were an estimated 5,718 households in Lincoln with one or more member in
            special needs groups: 15.4% of all households, just above the national average. ‘Physically
            disabled’ is the predominant group category (9.0% of all households) then ‘frail elderly’
            (3.1%) and those with ‘mental health’ issues (3.1%). The survey showed requirements for a
            wide range of adaptations across special needs households including:


                 Shower unit – 16.9% of special needs households; car parking space to front door of
                 home – 14.9% of all special needs households; Downstairs WC – 14.1% of all special
                 needs households

                 Survey results also showed scope for more ‘care and repair and ‘staying put’ schemes.

11.3.16     North Kesteven’s Housing Strategy 75 includes aims for developing policy for delivering
            adaptations in tandem with the Home Improvement Agency, and to consider harmonising
            the disabled adaptations procedures for Council tenants with that of DFGs.


11.3.17     West Lindsey’s Interim Housing Strategy (WLIHS) 2006-2008 highlights a number of key
            actions for a needs led service development as envisaged in the Lincolnshire Supporting
            People Strategy 76 . These actions include, for people with Physical Disabilities: – suitable


     74
          City of Lincoln Housing Study 2004
     75
          North Kesteven Housing Strategy 2005-2008.
     76
          Supporting People Strategy 2005-2010. Planning for Housing Related Support in Lincolnshire. March 2005.

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             accommodation for families with a disabled member a priority; robust data regarding
             suitable adapted or purpose built properties. There is also a need to target funding to meet
             Decent Homes in the private sector occupied by vulnerable people.


11.3.18      The capacity of people with special needs to live with maximum independence in housing
             depends on levels of support. One key mechanism for delivering housing–related support
             services to vulnerable people in Lincolnshire is through the Supporting People (SP)
             programme. The Lincolnshire Supporting People Strategy 77 highlights key issues concerning
             housing related support requirements and unmet need. The Supporting People programme
             began in 2003, with a low base of provision. Distribution of services around the county has
             not been equitable. Although East Lindsey has a much higher proportion of people aged 60
             and over than Lincoln (28.95% to 19.68%) respectively, there were at March 2005 5.91 units
             of service for older people in East Lindsey compared to 14.38 in Lincoln. Table 125
             indicates the number of service users supported in each Local Authority area. The table
             illustrates the issue of unequal distribution of resources at that time.




                                                Table 125: Housing support services
                                                                               East                       North          West
               Service user group                              Boston       Lindsey       Lincoln      Kesteven       Lindsey
               Community Alarm Service                               86          103              58         835          1402
               Older people with support needs                     807           782         1,258           398           481
               People with mental health needs                       48            22        71                 9
               People with learning disabilities                   138           130              61           25            68
               People who are homeless                               52          141           473             38
               Ex-offenders/at risk of offending                     14             5             49            3            22
               People who misuse substances                                                        6
               Young people at risk                                   7            12             41                         20
               Teenage parents                                                                     5
               Women at risk of domestic violence                     6                            8                          5
               People with physical/sensory disability                                             4                          1
               Refugees                                                                           64
               Total                                            1,158         1,195         2,098         1,308         1,999
               % of county total                                  10.8          11.0          19.5          12.3          18.8
             Source. Lincolnshire Supporting People Strategy 2005-2010




      77
           Lincolnshire Supporting People Strategy 2005-2010. Planning for Housing Related Support in Lincolnshire. March 2005.



168
11.3.19     The five-year Supporting People strategy highlighted gaps and needs including: flexibility; a
            ‘whole system approach’; people with complex needs and multiple vulnerabilities; service
            user involvement. The Audit Commission Supporting people inspection report for 2004 78
            found that the five-year strategy left organisational challenges to maximise funding, and
            drive forward improvements.


11.3.20     Current information concerning Supporting People disability services to client groups with
            learning disability and physical and/or sensory disability is available 79 . Key issues include:


                 the service user profile: all new users classified as white British

                 demand for new service users is predominantly in the East Lindsey district

                 low provision in North Kesteven; no accommodation based services in West Lindsey

11.3.21     By far the largest proportion of Supporting People services within the disabilities sector are
            for learning disabilities. Lincolnshire has a lower spend than the national average across
            the identified priority service user groups, although it has a higher than national average
            spend on services for people with learning disabilities. 87% of SP funding (disabilities
            sector) goes to outreach services for adults with learning disabilities, supporting 62% of the
            total 705 service units for up to 437 service users in the sector. By contrast, less than 1% of
            annual expenditure funds 2 floating support services for up to 80 adults with
            physical/sensory disability units. 80


11.3.22     Nearly 25% of estimated annual spend relates to outreach in the service in the south of the
            county, whereas 16% of expected annual spend is directed towards services in East Lindsey
            where there are 15 services with a contractual capacity to support up to 93 service users.
            Evidence relating to new service users indicates that demand for services is predominantly
            by adults with learning disabilities in East Lindsey, but there may be unmet needs, or needs
            being addressed through other sectors e.g. floating support in the homelessness sector, to
            be uncovered through needs analysis findings.


11.3.23     Key recommendations for action from the sectoral review include:


                 Development of physical disabilities service following needs analysis

                 Consider more permanent arrangements for those with sensory impairment




     78
          Audit Commission. August 2004. Supporting People Programme. Lincolnshire County Council.
     79
          Lincolnshire County Council Supporting People Sectoral Review Summary. Appendix G. Disability Services. January 2007
     80
          Lincolnshire County Council Supporting People Sectoral Review Summary. Appendix G. Disability Services. January 2007.

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                  Consider need for more logical geographical spread of provision following needs
                  analysis.


11.4          Minority and hard to reach households
                                                           Young People
                       Entry level of housing is way above affordable
                       People can’t buy without help from parents
                       Rural areas are losing young people
                       Need to provide right kind of accommodation – a broad range of needs
                       Economic situations has big impact
                       Hugely diverse across county
                       How do we retain/attract young people into HMAS both to live and work?
                       Their skills bring economic benefits

11.4.1       The Housing Strategies of the Local Authorities of the Central and Coastal HMAs provide
             some general indications of groups of minority and hard-to-reach people with unmet
             housing need.        Housing needs studies also provide limited supplementary data.   It is
             strongly recommended that some qualitative research into minority and hard-to-reach
             groups’ requirements, involving stakeholders and/or service users, is undertaken to explore
             some of the issues raised below of unmet need, reasons for unmet needs, and options for
             addressing needs, given that hard-to-reach households are less likely than others to
             complete surveys, including national surveys such as the Census. BME groups are frequently
             felt to be hard-to-reach. Among other groups which might be classified as ‘hard-to-reach’
             Lincolnshire’s Supporting People confirms research showing high levels of support need
             among young people, especially young people leaving care. These needs and examples of
             best practice are detailed in the Youth Housing Strategy 81 (see section 11.4.16).       A
             separate Gypsy and Traveller accommodation assessment is currently being carried out.


11.4.2       Local housing strategies and needs assessments indicate key themes of:


                  coordinated approaches required to BME communities’ issues who do not access
                  mainstream services

                  geographical issues concerning housing-related support

                  high levels of priority need among young people

                  a range of accommodation challenges to move-on to independent living




      81
           Lincolnshire Youth Housing Strategy 2005-2010



170
11.4.3      East Lindsey’s Housing Needs Study 82 highlights a number of factors contributing to the
            levels of unmet need in East Lindsey. Unemployment levels in East Lindsey are subject to
            high seasonal variations with claimants increasing by over 400% between high and low
            seasons 83 .    Many     individuals        undertaking    seasonal     employment        stay    in    caravan
            accommodation during the season (15th March – 31st October or 1st March – 30th
            November); 84 during out-of-season closures alternative accommodation is needed.


11.4.4      East Lindsey District Council’s Housing Strategy’ supplementary document concerning
            specific groups highlighted 85 :


                 more research into housing needs of BME communities

                 setting up an interpretation protocol

                 monitoring information provision in different languages and providing housing advice
                 leaflets in non-English languages by November 05

                 764 16-25 year olds on the Housing Register at July 2005. 16/17 year olds the priority
                 group among homeless households accepted by the authority in 2005.

11.4.5      Concerning other hard-to-reach groups, East Lindsey District Council’s Housing Strategy key
            plans include:


                 advice information in alternative languages for European workers

                 with Health Authority - survey to map housing and support needs of HIV/Aids by
                 December 2006

11.4.6      Boston Borough Council’s Housing Strategy 86 highlights key actions under Strategic Priority 4
            - Supporting independence and inclusion. The key actions include extending the range of
            housing related information in other languages (leaflets have been identified for
            translation; widely distributed within the Borough, and made available on the website); and
            supporting       the    development          of   guest    worker      facilities,    including     temporary
            accommodation.


11.4.7      The City of Lincoln Housing Strategy 87 highlights that since 2001 Lincoln has been a cluster
            area for asylum seekers, although it is not anticipated that any further dispersal of asylum




     82
          Housing Needs in East Lindsey, Fordham Research
     83
          The Census Atlas 2005, Develop Lincolnshire
     84
          Housing Needs in East Lindsey, Fordham Research
     85
          East Lindsey District Council, Special Needs and Specific Groups, Housing Strategy 2005-2010 Supplementary Document
     86
          Boston Borough Housing Strategy 2005-2009.
     87
          City of Lincoln Housing Strategy 2006-2010

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             seekers will take place. Data from the Council’s equality research suggests that Lincoln’s
             minority community increased from 2% (2001) to 5% (2005).


11.4.8       North Kesteven’s Housing Strategy 88 highlights that the Council has taken on the
             coordinating role for an ongoing equalities project on behalf of the District Councils in
             Lincolnshire, aiming to harmonise good practice across Lincolnshire.


11.4.9       West Lindsey’s Interim Housing Strategy (WLIHS) 2006-2008 highlights a number of key
             actions as envisaged in the Lincolnshire Supporting People Strategy 89 . These actions
             include:


                  Target funding to meet Decent Homes in the private sector occupied by vulnerable
                  people

                  Refugees and Asylum seekers – sub-regional housing needs survey for minority groups

11.4.10      Current information concerning Supporting People services to socially excluded client
             groups is available 90 . Key issues include:


                  Less than 20% of service users within the service returned to their previous home or
                  moved to independent living within RSL or LA housing

                  service users from BME communities not accessing services

                  highest proportion of new service users are young single homeless or young people at
                  risk/young offenders

                  currently no designated services specifically for Gypsies and Travellers

                  geographical distribution - nearly 59% of services for the socially excluded are in the
                  City of Lincoln area, while demand for services to refugees in the City of Lincoln has
                  ceased this financial year

                  Silting up of accommodation links to limited range, including move-on and permanent

11.4.11      Challenges to move-on to independent living include: housing providers’ allocation policies;
             single room rent restrictions and housing benefit regulations.


11.4.12      The breakdown in Table 126 of where socially excluded users of the service found
             accommodation after departing from the service highlights high numbers of: destination
             unknown; and custody. In the accommodation service for refugees a strikingly high number
             were taken into custody. These service users are likely to have been single homeless.



      88
           North Kesteven Housing Strategy 2005-2008.
      89
           Supporting People Strategy 2005-2010. Planning for Housing Related Support in Lincolnshire. March 2005.
      90
         Lincolnshire County Council Supporting People Sectoral Review Summary. Appendix E. Socially Excluded Groups.
      January 2007



172
                             Table 126: Departures from SP Services for socially excluded
                                      Accommodation        Floating services   Accommodation            Totals
                                       based services –     for offenders/at    -based services
                                      Offenders at risk    risk of offending       for refugees
                                          of offending
              Departures                 No.          %       No.         %      No.         %    No.       %
              Friends                       5       7.2          0        0       15        14     20      10
              Family                        8      11.5          0        0       14        13     11      11
              Supported
              housing                       6       8.7          0        0       29        27    35     17.7
              Sheltered housing             1       1.4          0        0         1      0.9      2       1
              Private rented                9        13          0        0         7      6.8     16      8.1
              RSL general needs             6       8.7          0        0         2      1.8      8       4
              LA general needs              9        13          0        0         4      3.7     13      6.5
              Return to
              previous home                 0                    0        0         2      1.8      2       1
              Hospital                      1       1.4          0        0         1      0.9      2       1
              Custody                       6       8.7          1      5.2       22      20.5      9      4.5
              Sleeping rough                2       2.9          0        0         1      0.9      3      1.5
              Not known/lost
              contract                     16      23.1          8     42.1       31        29    55     27.9
              Completed
              programme
              (floating support
              only)                      N/A       N/A         10      52.6         0        0     10       5
              Total                        69                  19                109              197
             Source. SP Sectoral review summary 2007

11.4.13      There is reported to be an imbalance in the type of supported housing available to socially
             excluded people - existing supported housing is predominantly shared accommodation, and
             less than 35% of total units of service are self-contained supported housing. 91 This
             unbalanced range and proportionately limited floating support services, are considered
             insufficient to effectively support the move-on of service users to more independent
             supported setting and more independent living.


11.4.14      A particular concern is that a survey conducted by Lincolnshire National Probation Service
             showed that around 25% of offenders under statutory supervision (predominantly male)
             have identified accommodation needs. These include offenders of no fixed abode, transient
             or in poor quality or unstable accommodation or in an unsuitable location. Key locations
             where these accommodation issues pertain include Lincoln, Skegness and Boston.



     91
          Ibid.

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11.4.15      Key Supporting People recommendations include:


                  Consider need for more logical geographical spread of provision

                  work with general needs housing providers and private rented sector landlords to
                  identify potential move-on accommodation

                  consider development of standardised needs assessment where housing, health and
                  care needs can be addressed as continuing joined-up support package

11.4.16      Concerning young people, (including specific groups that include young people who misuse
             substances; young people with mental health issues) the low population density of
             Lincolnshire and development of existing supported accommodation in urban areas means
             that young people often have to leave their home environment and existing support
             networks to move into urban areas for a specialist service, which leaves them more
             vulnerable to start with and when leaving supported accommodation 92 . Research
             underpinning the Youth Housing Strategy established a range of issues which can be
             summarised briefly, and the Strategy proposed actions to address these issues:


                  Limited access to affordable emergency services – need for more emergency
                  accommodation; RSLs need to make better use of existing stock; insufficient bed spaces
                  for young offenders

                  Temporary accommodation – increasing alternatives to B&B required especially in the
                  East

                  Move-on accommodation – greater provision needed across county; insufficient
                  bedspaces for young offenders; ex-offenders who receive supported accommodation
                  70% less likely to offend

                  Floating support – 1 in 5 live in accommodation not meeting their needs because of lack
                  of support or temporary accommodation.


11.5          The housing requirements of rural communities

11.5.1       There is growing pressure nationally to assess the housing needs of rural communities, as a
             separate and distinct study from more broad based housing needs assessment. A number of
             key documents address the emerging issues.


11.5.2       The Affordable Rural Housing Commission was set up in July 2005 by the Department for
             Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister
             (ODPM), now the Department for Communities and Local Government. The commission set
             out to enquire into the scale, nature and implications of the shortage of affordable housing
             for rural communities in England and make recommendations to help address unmet need.


      92
           Lincolnshire Youth Housing Strategy 2005-2010



174
11.5.3      The Affordable Rural Housing Commission identified a number of trends in rural
            communities, many of which were attested to by participants at the Stakeholder
            consultation event and can be seen to hold true in the two housing market areas as shown
            in this report:


                 Inward migration of commuters, retirees and owners of second or holiday homes
                 contributing to demand-led house price inflation

                 Right-to-Buy has had a proportionally greater impact in reducing the stock of social
                 housing in rural areas

                 Fewer new homes have been built to replace those sold in rural areas

                 Planning policies have prioritised the protection of the environment and limited the
                 availability of land for market and affordable housing

                 While average earnings in rural areas match those elsewhere, the affluence of
                 commuters and others masks the fact that many of the lowest paid wage-earners are
                 employed in the rural economy and often face the highest and least affordable house
                 prices

11.5.4      The Central and Coastal Housing Market Areas include many small rural settlements, which
            are likely to experience a number of the rural housing need issues identified in national
            research. At the Lincolnshire Stakeholder consultation event, held as part of the SHMA
            process, concerns about rural affordability and land availability were strongly emphasised.
            The following sections of the report focus on specific rural considerations from a
            description of the rural classifications that make up the two housing market areas, to
            identifying rural housing need indicators and national planning policy considerations.


11.5.5      According to the Office for National Statistics Rural and Urban Classifications 93 - The new
            rural and urban definitions classify Output Areas, Wards and Super Output Areas by
            aggregating the underlying hectare grid square classifications for measures of settlement
            size and sparsity. Up to eight classes of Output Areas are distinguished; four settlement
            types (urban, town and fringe, village, hamlet and dispersed) in either a sparse or less
            sparse regional setting 94 .




     93
          http://www.statistics.gov.uk/geography/nrudp.asp
     94
       As a result of the higher aggregation level for Wards and Super Output Areas, the settlement classification must be
     condensed to only three measures; urban, town and fringe, and other (more dispersed settlements) while the sparse or
     non-sparse measure is retained. For Super Output Areas and Wards, Village, Hamlet and Isolated Dwellings is combined.

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                                         Table 127: Rural and urban classifications
         Classification                              Description
         Urban >10k - Sparse                         Urban Settlements located in sparsely populated areas
         Town and Fringe - Sparse                    Small Town and Fringe areas located in sparsely populated areas
         Village - Sparse                            Villages located in sparsely populated areas
         Hamlet & Isolated Dwellings -Sparse         Hamlet & Isolated Dwellings located in sparsely populated areas
         Urban >10k - Less Sparse                    Urban Settlements located in less sparsely populated areas
         Town and Fringe - Less Sparse               Small Town and Fringe areas located in less sparsely populated areas
         Village - Less Sparse                       Villages located in less sparsely populated areas
         Hamlet & Isolated Dwellings - Less Sparse   Hamlet & Isolated Dwellings located in less sparsely populated areas
         Source: Office for National Statistics, rural and urban classifications

11.5.6   Lower super output areas for the two Housing Market Areas have been mapped according to
         the ONS rural classification and are shown in Figure 34. The lighter the colour shading the
         smaller the population and the greater the sparsity. Large parts of the centre and coastal
         areas in between the coastal towns in East Lindsey can be described as village/hamlet and
         isolated in a sparse region. To the north east of Boston, there are also some areas that
         meet this most rural of classifications and this characteristic alone might well support the
         notion of the Coastal Housing Market Area, if not so much from the operation of a distinct
         housing market, but from its distinction of local extremes with very remote small
         settlements ringed inland and dotted along the coast with town and fringe settlements
         providing a housing draw.


11.5.7   The darker areas on the map indicate the high-density urban centres, where Lincoln can
         clearly be seen as an urban hub, but Skegness, Boston and Gainsborough also show as
         significant population centres.




176
                                Figure 34: Spatial distribution of rural classification




11.5.8   Comparing Figure 34 with Figure 23, which shows the spatial distribution of second home
         ownership in the housing market areas, it is evident that some of the most rural
         settlements have some of the higher densities of second home ownership, particularly in
         East Lindsey and this is likely to have a significant affect on both supply and affordability in
         these areas.


11.5.9   Other indicators to consider shown in Figure 10 and Figure 25 relate to the spatial
         distribution of house prices by post code sector and of social renting by super output areas.
         Social renting barely registers on the map in the most rural areas and many of which
         experience higher house prices well above the mean for the area as a whole.



11.6     Policy responses for rural housing

11.6.1   Assessing the degree to which these issues can be described as representative of the rural
         communities of Lincolnshire is not straightforward. There is considerable debate about the
         value of district wide housing needs assessments in relation to identifying housing needs in
         small rural communities. This has led to the proliferation of parish surveys and village
         appraisals, often promoted through the role of Rural Housing Enablers. The Commission for
         Rural Communities (an operating division of the Countryside Agency) produced a research
         publication in 2005 on “Calculating housing needs in rural England”. The report attempts


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          to establish through a rigorous and transparent methodology, regional and national figures
          for the need for affordable housing in rural England from 2006-2011.


11.6.2    The findings from this work reveal that it is predominantly in the South East and South West
          of the country that the issues identified above are felt most acutely. The East Midlands as
          a region is shown to have less rural housing need than all the other regions in England with
          the exception of the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber.                       This broad regional
          assessment however, masks the detail of what is being experienced at sub-regional and
          district level, and as research by York University on rural housing need in Yorkshire and the
          Humber shows, on closer examination rural housing needs are evident in all areas of the
          country.


11.6.3    Research by the Centre for Housing Policy, York, into Rural Housing in the Yorkshire and
          Humber Region 95 created a rural housing needs index for all the rural wards in the Yorkshire
          and Humber Region. The indicators of housing need that they identify as significant are:


               Net inward migration as a proportion of all households

               The proportion of vacant dwellings

               The proportion of all household spaces in owner occupation

               Concealed families as proportion of all families

               Non-working families as a proportion of all families

               Inference of low paid employment

               The proportion of all households without central heating

               The proportion of households living in social rented housing

               House purchase affordability ratio

               Change in affordability ratio

               Geographical access to services

11.6.4    In their needs index “composite indicator” the greatest weight was given to house purchase
          affordability, and the lack of social rented housing. Medium weight was given to the extent
          of net inward migration, and the prevalence of second/holiday homes. The lowest weight
          was given to the level of owner occupation, the extent of concealed families and the lack
          of central heating.       The measure of house purchase affordability showed an average
          affordability ratio for the Yorkshire and Humber Region of 5.7:1 (average house price 5.7


      95
         “Rural Housing in the Yorkshire and Humber Region”, Mark Bevan & David Rhodes, Centre for Housing Policy, The
      University of York - October 2004



178
            times greater than the average household income). It is interesting to note how much
            greater the ratio of mean earnings to mean house prices is in each of the five local
            authority areas, ranging from 6.9 in Lincoln to 8.3 in East and West Lindsey.


11.6.5      The authors of the Yorkshire and Humber report echo many of the sentiments expressed by
            Lincolnshire Stakeholders at the consultation event organised as part of this Strategic
            Housing Market Assessment when they state that:

                      “The effective identification of housing needs at the local level is vital to
                      bringing forward affordable housing schemes. This is particularly the case in
                      rural areas, where needs often have to be defined at the level of individual
                      settlements.” Assessing need is notoriously difficult. “Furthermore, a
                      difficulty with meeting rural needs is that sites may not be available where
                      needs are evident. Indeed many settlements may have identifiable housing
                      needs, but no opportunity at all for development, either through the use of
                      exception sites, or requiring a proportion of affordable units as part of a
                      private development.” 96

11.6.6      There are two main opportunities to provide affordable housing in rural areas


                 The allocation of specific sites in the local plan where the local authority can set a
                 threshold for the delivery of affordable housing (typically useful in areas characterised
                 by small settlements)

                 Through the use of rural exception policy

11.6.7      Government policy through PPS3 allows considerable flexibility for meeting housing need in
            rural areas. It is accepted that land that is normally subject to restraint may in some
            situations be appropriate to provide a small element of affordable housing so long as any
            such housing can be shown to meet need in perpetuity.


11.6.8      Planning Policy Statement 3 sets out appropriate thresholds for provision of affordable
            housing. The national indicative minimum site size threshold is fifteen dwellings. Local
            Planning Authorities can set lower minimum thresholds, where viable and practicable,
            including in rural areas. 97


11.6.9      Finding suitable sites for affordable housing schemes in rural areas can be a problem both
            in terms of allocated sites in local plans and for exception housing. Higher development
            costs can also be a prohibitive factor in delivering affordably housing in rural areas.


11.6.10     Planning Policy Statement 3 states that:




     96
        “Rural Housing in the Yorkshire and Humber Region”, Mark Bevan & David Rhodes, Centre for Housing Policy, The
     University of York - October 2004 (Chapter 4 page 33)
     97
          Planning Policy Statement 3, paragraph 29 - Communities and Local Government

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                       “In providing for affordable housing in rural communities, where
                       opportunities for delivering affordable housing tend to be more limited, the
                       aim should be to deliver high quality housing that contributes to the creation
                       and maintenance of sustainable rural communities in market towns and
                       villages. This requires planning at local and regional level adopting a
                       positive and pro-active approach, which is informed by evidence, with clear
                       targets for the delivery of rural affordable housing. Where viable and
                       practical, Local Planning Authorities should consider allocating and releasing
                       sites solely for affordable housing, including using a Rural Exception Site
                       Policy. This enables small sites to be used, specifically for affordable
                       housing in small rural communities that would not normally be used for
                       housing because, for example, they are subject to policies of restraint.

                       Rural exception sites should only be used for affordable housing in
                       perpetuity. A Rural Exception Site policy should seek to address the needs of
                       the local community by accommodating households who are either current
                       residents or have an existing family or employment connection, whilst also
                       ensuring that rural areas continue to develop as sustainable, mixed, inclusive
                       communities.” 98

                                            Further research on specific groups
                       Need specific studies to meet local need
                       Tap into existing resources to assess specific needs/areas/groups
                       Using primary data where necessary
                       Bargees: is there a real need? Who is finding out?




      98
           Planning Policy Statement 3, paragraph 30 - Communities and Local Government



180
12             RECOMMENDATIONS
     1.       The disproportionate size of the older population in East Lindsey presents and will continue
              to present significant challenges for the local economy and the local housing market. Both
              housing supply and future support services will need to take account of this in future
              planning and delivery.

     2.       In Lincoln, economic growth combined with a growing university population will serve to
              increase the number and proportion of younger people, meaning that Lincoln will have a
              younger age distribution than the other districts. Although it is imperative that the
              appropriate supply is available, it is also important that family flight from developing
              student population centres is monitored to ensure a sustainable city centre market.

     3.       There is a changing demand and supply of accommodation for Lincoln’s university
              population, which needs further research in order to fully understand the impacts on the
              local housing market.

     4.       With the exception of Lincoln, districts within the Coastal and Central HMAs have relatively
              high proportions of households living in under-occupied properties. This represents a
              potential blockage in the supply chain and it is imperative that the development of smaller
              homes is prioritised along with sheltered schemes that encourage older people to move on.

     5.       West Lindsey has a high proportion of non-decent dwellings, which needs to be tackled to
              ensure decent homes for local residents.

     6.       The impacts of migrant workers on the local Housing Market in Boston cannot currently be
              properly quantified, and should be the subject of further research.

     7.       The high cost of owner occupation and private renting presents major affordability issues
              across the HMAs. Both rents and house prices need to be monitored continually as part of a
              framework of ongoing housing markets intelligence. Other key indicators include numbers
              on the housing registers, lettings and housing completions (affordable and open market).

     8.       On balance, Outside would recommend that the housing registers are a better measure of
              current housing need for affordable housing at this time. The housing registers need to be
              maintained effectively to ensure accurate data.

     9.       The five authorities need to ensure that their housing offer both continue to attract new
              residents and meets the needs of existing residents. Future development should focus on
              smaller homes for young people, small families and older people.

     10.      A range of affordable housing should be offered that includes:

                   a. Shared equity and shared ownership, at similar targets as previously proposed

                   b. High quality social housing, which will meet the needs and aspirations of
                      residents in the 21st century, at targets no less than has already been proposed




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11.   The five authorities should consider means to collect comparable income data to enhance
      the modelling of affordable housing. This could include income surveys, purchasing
      modelled data from external agencies or collecting data routinely as part of a common
      approach to housing registers.

12.   The housing needs model should be updated annually to reflect changing housing market
      conditions and the impact of planning and housing policy. This will not only enable
      monitoring of progress towards a more sustainable and balanced housing market but also
      ensure that policy decisions are based upon the best available information.




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