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Mobile TV is to use with the operating system and streaming video-enabled smart phones to watch TV business.
Mobile TV Deployments Update Get notified of more free wireless whitepapers. Sign-up at: :RETHINK WIRELESS www.rethink-wireless.com Most observers in 2008 quietly wrote off the has a full scale war between MNOs and February 2009 prospects for Mobile TV. Yet despite this, it is broadcasters over which is the correct business only local issues with business models, and the model to proceed on, while German operators fact that in certain parts of the globe, Mobile have lost all interest in DVB-H after the license Network Operators (MNOs) have other issues at there was given to the broadcast based Mobile the forefront of their agendas, which hold it back. 3.0 and then returned to the regulator. Spain has also put off allocating available 700 MHz Inexorably broadcast Mobile TV is developing, spectrum and there are other minor delays in and during 2008 it forced the cumulative central Europe including Poland. shipment of specialist Mobile TV handsets to 59 million, where those handset had to be In the US, MediaFLO has attracted perhaps especially built to receive a separate video 100,000 customers, while waiting for its network signal. There is also a resurgence of cellular to go national, which will bring it the full backing streaming, as systems have upgraded to the of both the AT&T and Verizon Wireless H.264 codec, producing better video quality as marketing programs. MediaFLO is also planning to add more content, but it is expensive content bandwidth has broadened with the which requires up front payments, and it cannot implementation of HSDPA and EV-DO. do this until it is ready to trigger the full backing of the major MNOs. This is now likely to be The impression that Mobile TV is ailing is delayed since Barack Obama’s administration is because the US press can see no break in sight expected to put a 90 to 120 day moratorium on on their home soil, while in Europe there has Peter White bidders taking up their spectrum rights after the been a catalogue of disasters. Italy has long Lead Analyst recent US 700 MHz auctions. Rethink Research Associates been held up as the European leader, and has been joined by a successful launch in the However, this will set the stage for the US ATSC M/H standard to be completed. This will Netherlands, and less effective introductions in allow local broadcasters to begin transmitting ARCchart Ltd Austria, Switzerland and Finland (the Finnish free to air services and to ready early handsets, 27 Holywell Row system has been ready for years, but had London EC2A 4JB giving a chance for the other parts of the copyright legal issues). Elsewhere in Europe the UK broadcasting community’s Mobile TV eco- UK is stymied by the spectrum situation; France Tel: +44 207 456 9669 system to bear fruit. Email: email@example.com Global Wireless Research Sector Report Mobile TV Deployments Update 2 Both a renewed MediaFLO and new ATSC M/H Japan leading the charge systems are likely to emerge in the US during 2009 - we expect as many as 500,000 ATSC M/H devices to Japan has led this charge, and will still lead the bulk of ship inside the year. These will develop alongside this effort, with an anticipated further 20 million devices other US operations including the in-car seat back shipped during 2009, taking its ISDB-T handset services of ICO Communications (already launched), penetration to 60 million devices. Today, around 65% Sirius Satellite video services (launched last August of high end handsets come with ISDB-T 1 seg tuners but no numbers yet) and EchoStar, which plans to bundled (the mobile broadcast system is broadcast in launch its own services during 2009. By year end the one segment out of the 13 segments in a TV signal). US might have five or six broadcast Mobile TV efforts, Usage figures per viewer in Japan are already over 62 and even stronger cellular streaming packages than it minutes per day and still rising. has today. As such the Japanese model is one that everyone is But across the rest of the world, initially led by the trying to emulate. However, few companies can claim 2005 and 2006 launches in Japan and Korea, to have made any profit out of this system, despite its broadcast Mobile TV has flourished, and from a base eco-system – including advertising, and interactive m- of 40 million handsets a year ago, it has reached 59 commerce being substantially ahead of the rest of the million and rising (See table). During the course of world. 2009, accumulated shipments for specialist broadcast Broadcaster NHK is behind much of the original effort digital Mobile TV handsets should reach almost 90 in Japan, and now all other broadcasters, as well as all million devices as more countries turn on their various the MNOs, support 1 seg. The system there runs different broadcast technologies and begin recruiting alongside a high penetration level of existing streamed customers. Around 30 million specialist devices should video over cellular, with both now using H.264 codecs, ship during 2009 alone. having started on less efficient compression. Broadcast mobile TV services already launched Country Launched MoTV Handsets MoTV Handsets MoTV Handsets Technology End of 2007 End of 2008 End of 2009 Brazil 2008 0 0 150,000 ISDB-T China 2008 0 600,000 5,000,000 CMMB/STiMi Germany 2008 0 10,000 50,000 DVB-T Italy 2006 700,000 850,000 1,000,000 DVB-H Japan 2006 25,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 ISDB-T Netherlands 2008 0 90,000 180,000 DVB-H Russia 2006 10,000 20,000 30,000 DVB-H South Korea 2005 1,500,000 1,850,000 2,000,000 S-DMB South Korea 2006 13,000,000 15,400,000 17,500,000 T-DMB USA 2007 50,000 100,000 400,000 MediaFLO Other Various 50,000 65,000 275,000 Various 40,310,000 58,985,000 86,585,000 Source: Rethink Research FOTA: From Hype to Market Reality 3 There is no conditional access system on this service Mobile TV broadcast into the same spectrum such as as it is free to air, and the TV channels mirror the local ISDB-T or ATSC M/H. There are others which are TV franchises a little like the US with 47 local legal satellite terrestrial hybrids such as the Chinese CMMB jurisdictions. Tokyo leads with channels from the STiMi system, which actually delivers the signal in two dominant NHK (Japanese Broadcasting Corporation) spectrum slices – one from a satellite in 2.6 GHz and which is funded across Japan by a public TV license, one in the usual TV spectrum around 700 MHz. Alcatel with additional TV channels from NTV, MX TV, the has its own system which works similar to this but Japan News Network, the Fuji News Network, TV targets a single frequency network both from the Asahi and TV Tokyo Network. satellite and terrestrial repeaters. In 2000, Japan authorized digital TV by satellite and then began laying out ISDB-T terrestrial systems three Developments in China years later which took until the end of 2006 to be nationwide. In April 2006, 1-seg programming was More important is the choice of business model, and retrofitted to the service, and the built in Broadcast the big launch during 2008 was China. This will ramp Mark Up Language is used as a data-transmission in 2009 to what the Chinese authorities hope will be 12 technology to allow text to be displayed on a 1seg TV million viewers, but which we have projected as 5 screen. This means that external links from the TV million, because chip shipments suggest that the figure screen to promote interactive m-commerce is possible. will be closer to this. Japan is at the stage now that if a viewer sees someone on TV wearing something they like, chances We also think the Chinese Mobile TV satellite will go are they can buy it from their phone. up late and that uptake of video handsets will be confused by the fact that there are already 3 million Originally all content on 1 seg was simulcast with the video handsets in China offering analogue TV on a local TV channels but this restriction has now been handset. We also think that prices will not come down lifted by the regulator and new programs are now fast enough because too few non-Chinese companies appearing specifically for 1 seg. had anticipated this system being a success, and have failed to position themselves within the market. Around the rest of the world there are two main types However, in the medium term, China will overtake of transmission technology and two main types of TV Japan and become the biggest global market in bouquets and business models. The transmission broadcast digital Mobile TV, just ahead of India. technology either requires an entirely new network, such as DVB-H or MediaFLO or it uses the existing digital transmission of the TV stations, and squeezes a Services expected to launch in 2009 Country Launched MoTV Handsets MoTV Handsets MoTV Handsets Technology End of 2007 End of 2008 End of 2009 India 2009 0 0 1,500,000 DVB-H/DVB-SH South Africa 2009 0 0 180,000 DVB-H USA 2009 0 0 550,000 ATSC M/H/others Other 2009 0 0 655,000 Various 2,885,000 Source: Rethink Research FOTA: From Hype to Market Reality 4 India - Sleeping giant in Mobile TV Europe’s progress The Indian market will see spectrum auctioned in 2009 In Europe, we expect Italy and the Netherlands to add for both terrestrial and satellite Mobile TV systems, but subscribes at a steady pace, while the efforts in Austria, we think it is unlikely that any devices will be on the Switzerland and Finland will be in the low thousands. market before the last quarter. The bulk shipments will Germany will continue its forlorn experiment with DVB- come in 2010. There is a good chance that India will T, and this may prevent any serious Mobile TV use a combination of DVB-H and a satellite system, services from being launched there either at all, or until either DVB-SH from Alcatel or the Chinese system. 2010. French services will not start until at least 2010 The incumbent broadcaster Doordarshan already has and the UK more like 2012. 8 MHz of spectrum and will try to launch using DVB-H before new spectrum owners. However, it will not be The Italian system is sold by 3 Italia as ‘Walk TV’ and surprising if this is delayed, as India can be slow although Vodafone and Telecom Italia Mobile have getting things started. working DVB-H systems, they have not pushed them. The Italian experiment gives a good roadmap on how to promote a paid service in a modern, saturated cellular market which is also rich in cellular streaming Korean market still growing content. The service was launched with older LG and After Japan, Korea is the next fastest growing Mobile Samsung handsets, but has just added the Nokia N96. TV market, and it already has over 17 million customers. There are two systems, a satellite service The system is protected using a Nagravision DRM launched in 2005 which uses a pay TV approach based on the DVB Open Framework but this has been called S-DMB, and a free to air terrestrial system quietly moved to simulcast so it also offers OMA and called T-DMB. will later move to the OMA BCAST Smart Card Profile to accommodate the N96. The network covers 75% of Total subscribers to the two combined Korean Mobile the land area although indoor coverage is patchy, and TV systems have now reached 17.25 million at the end the service cleverly balances live sport (soccer), adult of 2008. T-DMB has reached 15.4 million - up around coverage, local drama and music TV. The service was 70% on a year ago - and S-DMB has begun climbing launched on the back of World Cup Soccer coverage again after a relatively static period, reaching 1.85 during 2006. It offers six free TV channels and 11 paid million. The Beijing Olympics was key to accelerating channels plus adult content and has a Barker Channel, these numbers. This represents a 35% penetration for called La3 Live, a free channel about what’s on the Mobile TV devices in 3 years, peculiarly many of the T- other paid channels, produced for practically nothing. DMB systems are not handsets but specially built TVs, MP3 players, laptops and GPS systems. 3 Italia pushes bundles offering TV plus internet services, plus some talk time. It also ingeniously uses We expect the Korean market to add another 2.25 the time between channel changes for advertising. million devices during 2009 as it begins to saturate. Customers have risen from 6.8 million when the Korea only has around 49 million people. For the US to service was launched, to 8.45 million, with at least achieve a similar penetration rate to either Japan or 400,000 of those directly attributable to Mobile TV. Korea it would have to sell over 100 million broadcast Mobile TV devices in the next 3 years – which would be hard to believe. It may be that the US and Western Other regions Europe, tied as most TV efforts are to a pay TV model, will develop far more slowly. ATSC M/H is the one In some instances, less sophisticated countries will exception and we expect it to rocket to half a million grow faster than highly developed countries, owing to customers in its first full year. low television penetration. These countries may opt for either low cost portable players or PC dongles to FOTA: From Hype to Market Reality 5 distribute TV to areas which have mobile coverage, but subsidized or partially subsidized, depending upon the where there are low densities of television sets. This territory they are launched in. Later, paid services can may well be the case in both South Africa, expected to be integrated on the same device but this requires have its licenses allocated this year, and in Brazil, planning so that DRM is part and parcel of the initial where there has been a slow uptake to mobile TV. product offering. Owners of content supplied through Here, networks are using a variant of ISDB-T from free to air services would rather see it encrypted for Japan and have very few devices for people to choose piracy protection – doing so will encourage greater from. All ISDB-T devices in Brazil incur an 85% import access to content. duty unless they are locally manufactured, and this is impacting device affordability, which in turn is hindering Finally, Mobile TV designed to reach handsets should the rate at which broadcasters are adding a digital not be offered in isolation. To get real momentum, signal. We expect this deadlock to begin to break in other devices should be embraced, especially laptops Brazil at the end of 2009. Also, broadcasts are using inexpensive dongles and specialist GPS devices. currently in limited areas. In Japan, even Apple has even given permission for the iPhone to be supplied with an ISDB-T antenna and Russia appears to have a haphazard approach to software. Mobile TV, and has mostly opted for DVB-H, when much of its terrain would have better suited a satellite based set up. However, Moscow should have multiple The outlook for Mobile TV services available this year, and up to 17 other major cities have been promised to be readied this year by As we look forward to 2010, the US market will begin Sistema Mass Media. This is one of three separate to speed up, bulk uptake will begin in India, and China Mobile TV efforts, and eventually devices will begin will definitely be getting up to speed in terms of shipping in volume, though we have only anticipated delivery of specialist handsets. The Chinese ministry minimal penetration at first. SARFT (State Administration for Radio, Film and Television) says that it expects 10 million CMMB devices sold in 2009 and around 50 million the following year, but even at the more likely delivery rate Rules of thumb for success of half those numbers, that would still see Chinese There are lessons that these launches have shown us Mobile TV handset annual deliveries overtaking Japan and golden rules can be extracted on how to go about as quickly as 2010, recession permitting. launching services. One key factor that has caused operators to stumble is lack of an attractive range of One wild card that seems to have lost its appeal is the devices. In some cases handset vendors have simply cellular multicasting standard MBMS. This will be reneged on deals to deliver devices on time for service enabled in all future mobile base stations and requires launches, because they have other priorities with a software stack to be loaded at the factory into firmer orders. HSDPA handsets. While we expect MBMS and CDMA multicast services to take off, which will allow Also, virtually no advertising efforts can be something like six high quality TV channels to be incorporated into the service until a customer base is broadcast to multiple devices over the cellular network, established – this could take two years. Japan and we no longer see this as competitive with broadcast TV Korea are now steadily attacking the advertising services – but complementary and will be used opportunity, which will provide a roadmap for other primarily to relieve backhaul pressure in existing services, especially the fledgling Chinese service, to cellular streaming services. This will probably not follow in years to come. emerge until the 2010 time frame (having gone awfully quiet throughout 2008) and result in yet another surge In order to get people watching mobile TV, an element of cellular streaming activity. of the service should be free, on handsets which are
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