ISET_Day_Talk-Schneider.ppt - NOAA-ISET

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					   The NOAA-Hydrometeorology Testbed
                 (HMT):
Progress Towards a Testbed in the Southeast

                        ISETCSC DAY RESEARCH SYMPOSIUM
                                         
                              NC A&T State University
                                         
                                 February 11, 2011




Tim Schneider
NOAA-ESRL, Boulder, CO
Contact: Timothy.Schneider@noaa.gov
http://hmt.noaa.gov/
  ISET; February 11, 2011         http://hmt.noaa.gov/   1
                          Outline
I.         Overview of the NOAA
           Hydrometeorology Testbed

II. Developments in the Southeast


ISET; February 11, 2011    http://hmt.noaa.gov/   2
                           About HMT
• The Hydrometerology Testbed (HMT) conducts research
  on precipitation and weather conditions that can lead
  to flooding, and fosters transition of scientific advances
  and new tools into forecasting operations
• HMT's outputs support efforts to balance water
  resource demands and flood control in a changing
  climate
• HMT is led by the Water Cycle Branch of NOAA/Earth
  System Research Laboratory’s (ESRL) Physical Sciences
  Division with partners across NOAA, other agencies and
  universities

 ISET; February 11, 2011     http://hmt.noaa.gov/         3
                           About HMT: Goals
HMT aims to:
•Accelerate the development and prototyping of advanced
hydrometeorological observations, models, and the understanding
of physical process
•Foster infusion of these advances into operations of the National
Weather Service and the National Climate Service
Develop and evaluate the “best possible” hydrometeorological
forcings for the emerging National Water Center
•Support the broader needs for 21st Century precipitation
information for flood control, water management and other
applications


 ISET; February 11, 2011        http://hmt.noaa.gov/             4
                   About HMT: Process
• Guided by both NWS operational requirements and
  by emerging scientific questions and new
  technologies, HMT directly engages the forecasters
  and scientists in the research and development
  process
• New ideas, technologies and predictive models are
  developed, demonstrated, evaluated and refined
  through the testbed, and are then transitioned to
  operations
• Emerging linkages: NOAA’s Climate Service; National
  Water Center
ISET; February 11, 2011   http://hmt.noaa.gov/          5
ISET; February 11, 2011   http://hmt.noaa.gov/   6
               A National Testbed Strategy
                          Tools for Water in a Changing Climate
     HMT West              Northwest – Cool
                           Season (2009+)




California – Cool                                                    HMT Southeast
Season (1998/2004+)                                                  Pilot – Warm
                                                                     Season (2013)
                Mini-HMTs – AZ
                (2008+); CO (2009+)



ISET; February 11, 2011                       http://hmt.noaa.gov/              7
Location
                                                                     Timeline & Overall Effort
                                         CA
                                                                                                                                     AZ
                                                                                                                                          CO
                                                                                                                                               WA
                                                                                                                                                    NC
                                      &"$! #

                                                          ' ( )* ( +, -#                                                                                            GPM
                                                                *    3,
                                                          . / 01 , 2+# 4( 56#
 Level of Effort (relative to 2010)




                                      &"! ! #             . / 0#
                                                          7-8+8+69, 2#                   Projected: based on the
                                                                                         President’s Budget Request for
                                      % #
                                       "$!
                                                                                         FY2011


                                                                                              HMT Prototype

                                                                                                                 HMT Prototype
                                       "!
                                      % !#
                                                                                Pacjet
                                                 Caljet




                                                                                                                                                         CalWater
                                      ! "$! #




                                      ! "! ! #




ISET; February 11, 2011                                                                                       http://hmt.noaa.gov/                                   8
      HMT’s Five Major Activity Areas
               QPE                                        QPF




Snow Info                                        Hydro Apps & Srfc. Proc.




                                          DSTs


ISET; February 11, 2011   http://hmt.noaa.gov/                        9
                          Cross-cutting Themes


                                        Training




Verification                                                  Obs Network




                           *NOAA’s Proposed Climate Service
ISET; February 11, 2011            http://hmt.noaa.gov/                     10
  Key Drivers in the Southeast
• The Southeast lies at the confluence of mid-
  latitude and tropical weather systems,
• Is experiencing rapid population growth (a
  southeastern megapolis) and land-use changes
• Is home to a wide range of basin scales,
  processes, and geomorphologies
• Is susceptible to changing climate



ISET; February 11, 2011   http://hmt.noaa.gov/   11
       NOAA HMT-SE Milestones
• Ad hoc Workshop Planning Committee formed in 2008
   – HMT-SE Operational Needs & Requirements Workshop, February
      2009
   – HMT-SE Research Planning Workshop, June, 2009
• Guiding documents are currently under development (moving target)
   – An HMT-SE science plan (drawing on diverse group from NOAA and
      stakeholders)
   – An HMT-SE implementation plan
• *President’s 2011 Budget Request                                     HMT
   – HMT (base support for hydromet research), linked to…
   – CERIS (coupling estuary and river models in the Southeast)            THORPE
                                                                 CERIS
   – THORPEX (large-scale QPF modeling and assimilation)                     X

• Tentatively*: begin ramping up in NC in 2011
   – Pending Congressional approval of the budget (“Scenario 1”)
   – Alternate plans: Pilot Study in 2013 (“Scenario 2”)


  ISET; February 11, 2011         http://hmt.noaa.gov/                       12
                  Scenario 1
• Full HMT-SE Testbed
  – Full funding (per FY2011 Pres-Bud)
• Long-term strategy; nominally 5-years
  – Initial ramp: 2011-2013
  – “plateau” in 2013 (in conjunction with GPM)
• Primarily focused on Piedmont and Coastal
  Plane (through 2013)
  – Major basins: Tar-Pam River Basin and Neuse
    River Basin
                   Scenario 2
• HMT-SE Pilot Study
  – Leverage existing ESRL/PSD
  – Supplemental (matching) funding required
• Short-term strategy; focused over 2-years
  – 5 month, warm-season field study, May-Oct, 2013
  – 2nd year analysis
• Need to reconsider “geography” – NASA driver
  – Piedmont and Coastal Plane: large-scale context
  – Major basins: TBD, but focused on key a sub-basin in
    or near the Appalachians
                             HMT’s Strategy
Focus on:
  Warm season (incl. land-falling tropical systems) extreme
  precipitation & runoff
• Lower troposphere
    – Profile the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere
    – Boundary Interactions
           • E.g. convective outflows (interacting)
    – Lift, availability of water, and ‘priming’
           = Forcing + Fuel + Stability

• Processes at (and below) the surface
    –   Surface processes (e.g. soil moisture; runoff)
    –   Interactions with the water table
    –   River & stream flow
    –   Low & high flow
    –   Inundation

  ISET; February 11, 2011                   http://hmt.noaa.gov/            15
             What Warm-Season Physical Processes
                  Trigger Heavy Precipitation?
•    Coastal Front
•    Land-falling “tropicals”
•    PREs
       –   On average ~1/year (but they tend to cluster)
                                                                      Nashville Flooding, 2010
•    Cold air damming
•    Orographic precipitation processes
•    Sea breeze
•    Convection
       –   Triggers
       –   Detection
       –   Crossing the Appalachians
•    Cyclogenesis
•    Microphysics
•    Forcing/convergence
•    Low level jet (barrier jet)                           Image Courtesy of Seth Gutman
•    Moisture transport
                                                                                                 16
•    Boundary layer

ISET; February 11, 2011                       http://hmt.noaa.gov/
                            NOAA HMT-SE
                            Nature & scope of observations
 • Profiling sites (wind and S-band)                        • Scanning radars
 • Surface sites (met & soil)                               • Mobile balloon systems


              Modeling

• Regional
    • WRF Ensembles
• Large-scale
    • Reforecasting
    • Operational
• Coupled systems
    • “Sky to summit to sea”
    • “Bedrock to boundary
    layer”+


  ISET; February 11, 2011            http://hmt.noaa.gov/                          17
        HMT-SE Testbed Strawman




                                                 Tar-Pamlico River Basin
                                                       ~5375 mi2
                                                 Neuse River Basin
                                                       ~6225 mi2



ISET; February 11, 2011   http://hmt.noaa.gov/                             18
HMT-SE Pilot Strawman Basemap
                           Duke (Barros)
                           Network
                           Coweeta LTER
                           (NSF)
                           PSD Surface

                           PSD Surface + S-
                           Prof
                           PSD Surface + S-
                           Prof
                                + Wind-Prof
                                  w/RASS
                                               QPE               HMT-SE Pilot Activities
                                  Fundamental DSD retrieval –
                                  microphysics studies


                                        Inform:
*An explored linkage                    •Z-R Selection
to ISET/NC A&T State                    •Polarimetry
                                        •VPR
University                              •Satellite – CMORPH
                                        •Rain type
                                                 BB – no BB



                                       Evaluate impact on QPE:
                                       • MPE                            QPF/Diagnostics
                                       • NMQ Q2
                                       • Mountain Mapper         Evaluate impact on QPF
  Surface Processes                                              System types that lead to precipitation
                                                                        • Large scale systems
                                                                        • Barrier jet dynamics
 • Soil moisture                                                        • Sensitivity to BCs
 • Evaluate surface wind           National Water Center         Deterministic vs statistical down-scaling
   parameterizations for ET                                             • WRF Ens/Reforecast
                                   HYDRO FORCINGS



  Hydro Applications*                                                           Tropical
                                                                           • μphys param
 • Assessment using hydro model                                            • Convective initiation
                                                       2/2/11
             NASA-NOAA Partnership:
                          GPM-HMT Synergies
I. Observing & Modeling Infrastructure
      •        HMT-SE (2013; May-October / 2011–2016…)
II. Ground Validation (Physical Validation)
      •        Focused on the validation of GPM algorithms
      •        Long-term observations (5 months / 5 years+)
III. Hydrologic Applications (Integrated
     Validation)
      •        Connecting research and operations (through
               national centers & field offices)
      •        A “place” to develop and test ideas, products,
               tools and device
ISET; February 11, 2011        http://hmt.noaa.gov/             21
                             Thank
                              You!
                          http://hmt.noaa.gov/



ISET; February 11, 2011         http://hmt.noaa.gov/   22
                              NOAA HMT-SE
•    New challenge for HMT – all seasons
      - Warm season focus, but…
      - Land-falling tropical (named) storms
      - Cool season phenomena
•    Geographic scope:
      - Initial efforts centered on the Piedmont in NC (see
          map)                                                                    Friday 1 Oct 2010
•    Priorities & Requirements                                                    ECU campus
      - HMT is driven by NOAA priorities
      - Workshops identified ~47 requirements
•    Coordinate with
      - National Water Center/IWRSS
      - NASA GPM-2013
      - NOAA SE-CART
      - CERIS
      - CI-FLOW & Sea Grant
      - Coastal Services Center
      - NIDIS SE Pilot
      - THORPEX
      - ISET
      - Others…


    ISET; February 11, 2011                     http://hmt.noaa.gov/                        23
                                                                       Courtesy of Tom Rickenbach
Key Questions for the Southeast
    Identified by the GPM Hydrology ‘SE-Subgroup’

• How do the land surface properties/characteristics affect
  satellite retrieval error?
      – Given the unique physiographies of the Coastal Plain; Piedmont;
        Appalachian Mountains?
• How does retrieval error trace through flood simulations
  and water budgets of basins of different scales, uses,
  characteristics?
• How do microphysics, storm dynamics & maturity state,
  barrier jets along the southern Appalachian’s, and other
  processes and phenomena affect retrieval error?
      – Traceablility: identify algorithm errors and/or characteristics for
        these storms



AGU; December 13, 2010          http://hmt.noaa.gov/                      24
   Overarching GPM Questions
                          (Walt Petersen, NASA)
How can GPM four-dimensional quantitative
precipitation estimation (QPE) and associated
uncertainties be effectively used …
1)within the framework of global water and energy
cycle applications including climate and weather
prediction?
2)in hydrometeorological applications such as soil
moisture estimation, decision support for flood
forecasting, and water resource management?
ISET; February 11, 2011          http://hmt.noaa.gov/   25
    HMT-SE Pilot study – PSD Obs targets
•   1 May 2013 – 1-15 Oct 2013
•   6 PSD profiling sites
     – 4 S-Prof sites (2 return to WA in October, 2 to CA in Nov)
     – 2 PSD wind profiler sites (possibly including a supersite with 449 and S-Prof); RASS
     – GPS met; surface met; Disdrometers
•   6 additional PSD surface met sites
     – Inlcuding soil moisture, temperature; Disdrometers; soil moisture/temperature; GPS-Met
•   Use two existing wind profilers at Charlotte and Raleigh
     – Raleigh needs repairs, could be an issue
     – Propose a long-term contract with NC contacts to employ our data system and algorithms
•   NASA will deploy 1 May to mid June, including N-Pol, aircraft, 25 disdrometer sites,
    and other surface sensors.
•   Possible sponsorship of X-pol (and other x-bands) by NASA
•   Also would like to consider:
     – 2-D Video disdrometer; stream measurements (e.g. Jessica Lundquist); water table; “Super-
       site” (a la C.Williams); flux measurements at key sites
                                      HMT-SE Objectives
•   QPE
     –    Impacts of VPR; polarimetry on algorithms and QPE “systems”
     –    Supporting NWS adaptation and use of polarimetric 88Ds (improved algorithms, training)
     –    Evaluating and improving QPE systems in complex and differing terrain (gradients; Appalachians to Piedmont to Coastal Plain)
            •    MPE; NMQ/Q2; Stage IV; CMORPH; others as appropriate
     –    4-D structure of microphysics and impacts on DSDs (which feedback on QPE (Z-R; VPR; etc.)
     –    Tentatively: evaluation of the impact of gap-filling radars

•   QPF
     –    Diagnostics of large-scale dynamics leading to extreme precipitation
     –    Validation and evaluation of ensemble modeling systems (WRF ensembles; reforecasting)
     –    Deterministic vs. statistical downscaling in conditions unique to Southeastern Region
     –    Data Assimilation (value added of improved obs; NASA + NOAA networks)
     –    How can we use NWP output and terrain information to derive corrections and characterize uncertainties in QPE

•   Hydro Applications & Surface Processes
     –    Study (instrument) a basin or sub-basin (scale analysis needed: large enough to be relevant to GPM; small enough to accurately characterize)
     –    How do forcing errors (esp. QPE) trace through flood simulations and water budgets of the basin
     –    How do microphysics, storm dynamics & maturity state, barrier jets along the southern Appalachian’s, and other processes and phenomena
          affect QPE products and QPF?
            •    Traceablility: identify forcing errors and/or characteristics for these storms
     –    Can we predict streamflow at any location (NWS focus)
            •    validate at non-gaged sites


•   Support “best possible forcings” at the NOAA Water Center (anticipatory)
     –    Lesson’s learned guide development of Water Center
     –    Transition key findings
                                                                 Coweeta LTER

                                                              Resources:
                                                              • Coweeta Hydrologic
                                                                Laboratory:
                                                                  •   http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/coweet
                                                                      a/
                                                              • Coweeta Long Term Ecological
                                                                Research (LTER)
                                                                  •   http://coweeta.ecology.uga.edu/




http://coweeta.uga.edu/ecology/coweeta_basin_map_letter.pdf
 Ana Barros’ (Duke University) Network:
            Orographic Precipitation Regimes in the Southern
                             Appalachians




http://beta-barros-group.cee.duke.edu/orography-southern-appalachians
Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basin
Catawba-Wateree River Basin
Tar-Pamlico & Neuse River Basins

				
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