Aviation and the Environment Managing the Challenge of Growth

Aviation and the Environment Managing the Challenge of Growth Federal Aviation Administration Meeting: By: NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Meeting Carl Burleson, Director FAA Office of Environment & Energy October 30, 2007 Date: Outline • • • • • • The Historical Record The Evolving Challenges NextGen- The Way Forward FAA Proposals Can We Succeed? Closing Observations Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 2 Aviation and Environmental Challenges Are Not New 2003 marked the 100th Anniversary of Flight and… The 92nd Anniversary of the flight editorial complaining about aircraft noise… Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 3 Aviation and the Economy • Aviation plays a key role in the world economy • Aviation supports 8% of global economic activity and carries 40% of the value of freight • Aviation activity outpaces economic growth • 2002 U.N. World Summit on Sustainable Development affirmed that economic growth is a prerequisite for improving earth’s environment • The number of air travellers is expected to double by 2025, rising to more than 9 billion a year. Download pdf at http://www.ita.doc.gov/td/aerospace/aerosp acecommission/aerospacecommission.htm Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 4 Aviation Noise: Technology & Policy Produce Gains Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 5 Aviation Noise: Technological Progress in Noise Reduction Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 6 Aviation Noise: Large Gains Coupled with Growth Trends in Aircraft Noise Exposure and Capacity Expansion 8.000 731 7.000 7.0 705 6.000 202 582 310 495 5.000 5.2 4.000 400 3.4 3.000 Enplanements 2.7 2.000 Population Exposed 1.7 1.000 0.8 0.5 0.000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Number of People (Millions) Exposed to Significant Aircraft Noise Year Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 7 Aviation Emissions: Significant Improvements 12000 Btu/passenger-mile 10000 Aircraft 8000 6000 110 4000 Automobiles Emissions Index 1980 = 100 100 NOx 90 80 CO HC 70 PM 10 60 SOx 2000 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Aircraft Energy Efficiency has improved substantially, especially when compared to the other form of US mass transit that moves passengers. 50 40 1980 1985 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Local air quality pollutants have declined steadily over the past several years. NOx has been the most challenging pollutant to constrain Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 8 Aviation Emissions- Greenhouse and Local Greenhouse Gas Emissions Local NOx Emissions Transport Transpo rt E ach square represen ts 1% of total em issions in ven tory Each square represents 1% of total emissions inventory N on- T ransport E lectric U tilities Ind ustry A griculture C o m mercia l R esidential T ransp ort O n-R oad V ehic les N on-R oad V ehicle s A viatio n Non- Transport Electric Utilities Industry Commercial/Institutional Misc. area/point sources Manufacturing Transport On-Road Vehicles Non-Road Vehicles Aviation National greenhouse gas emissions in 2001 While all transportation makes up more than 55 percent of the total national NOx inventory, aviation represents only about 0.4 percent. Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 9 Aviation Environmental Issues- Year 2000 Noise Water quality Air Quality Compatibility with nearby land uses None applicable Wetlands Key Number of Airports Source: GAO/RCED-00-153 [Aug-2000] survey of the nation’s 50 busiest commercial service airports. Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 10 Outline • • • • • • The Historical Record The Evolving Challenges NextGen- The Way Forward FAA Proposals Can We Succeed? Closing Observations Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 11 Aviation Noise: As Predicted, Has Not Gone Away Compiled by Tam et al., 2007 from Boeing data 9/13/05 450 300 Airports with Restrictions 150 0 1980 1990 2000 Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 12 Aviation Noise: Returning As An Issue National Noise Exposure Trends vs. FAA Targets Percent Change in Number of Residents Exposed to Aircraft Noise (DNL 65 dB or more) 20% Percent Change from 3-Year Average (2000 - 2002) 10% FAA Flight Plan Target 1% per year reduction of expose d residents FAA Flight Plan Updated Target 4% per year reduction 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 Actual Projection Target Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 13 Aviation Emissions: U.S. Growth Down FAA Fuel Efficiency Target 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 21,000 20,500 20,000 19,500 19,000 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year 2004 2005 2006 US Commercial Aviation Performance Total U.S. Aviation Fuel Consumption e 04 05 07 06 08 lin 09 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 10 se Target (%) Actual (%) Source: FAA Millions of Gallons FY FY FY FY FY FY Ba FY Source: FAA Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 14 As Predicted, Local Air Quality Issues Growing In Importance 50 Largest U.S. Airports 100 80 % of airports Non-attainment Attainment 60 40 20 0 Ozone PM 2.5 Federal Aviation Administration 15 Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 New Issue: Concern About Reliance of Transport on Oil Transportation continues to have the largest reliance on oil… …while some are predicting that we are nearing the peak of oil supply. Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 16 New “Emphasis” Issue: Shift in Airline Cost Equation Source: Air Transport Association Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 17 New Issue: Aviation GHG Emissions Internationally • United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992 – General commitment to reduce certain greenhouse gas emissions • Kyoto Protocol 1997 (2005) – Specific targets for reductions – Developing countries exempt (for now) – Coverage of domestic aviation up to each country – International aviation subject to ICAO plan (per Article 2.2) • ICAO Decision in 2004 – Limit or reduce the impact from aviation greenhouse gas emissions on climate change Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 18 New Issue: European “Mania” on Climate Change and Aviation – “Flying kills. We all know it, and we all do it. And we won't stop doing it until the Government reverses its policy and starts closing the runways.” London Guardian, February 28, 2006 “Of all the things which an ordinary person does which damage the planet, flying is far the worst.” Fly Now, Grieve Later, Tyndall Climate Center “Aviation could be the next tobacco industry.” CANSO Official, ATAG Conference, 2006 – – – “…we should tax aviation so heavily…that in within 10 years there should be virtually no domestic flights.” Conservative MP Tim Yeo, January 2007 every time someone dies as a result of floods in Bangladesh, an airline executive should be dragged out of his office and drowned. George Monibot, Guardian Newspaper, December 2006 – Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 19 New Issue: Market Changes Increase Complexity of Challenge 3X 2% Shift to Micro Jets Flights 1.4-3X 2X Shift to smaller aircraft, more airports Passengers 1.8-2.4X Demand Increase 10+ pax/flight Shift to more passengers / flight 1X 2004 2014 Year 2025 Source: NextGen Integrated Plan, 2004 Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 20 Aviation Environmental Issues – Year 2007 Community Noise Impacts Air Quality Energy Water Quality Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Global Climate Federal Aviation Administration 21 Outline • • • • • • The Historical Record The Evolving Challenges NextGen- The Way Forward FAA Proposals Can We Succeed? Closing Observations Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 22 The Way Forward for the US: NextGen Plan NextGen Vision Provide environmental protection that allows sustained aviation growth Factors: • 2X increase in system by 2025 • Fundamental system changes • Increased importance of environment • Vision to grow aviation while reducing significant environmental impact • Technology and operational innovation essential to meet environmental vision Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 23 NextGen Environmental Goals: Initial Quantification Noise • NextGen goal to reduce noise exposure (65, 55 DNL) 1%/year measured from base of 2000-2002 average (FAA goal) • FAA goal is now 4%/year (65 DNL) through Flight Plan (2008-2012) Local Air quality • NextGen goal analyses computed lbs emissions • Engine emissions standards limit lbs emissions; ≠ significance • National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) establish significance for all sources combined • Establishing aircraft contribution challenging Climate • NextGen analyses done against goal to improve aviation fuel efficiency per revenue plane-mile by 1%/year measured from base of 2000-2002 average (FAA goal) • Historical average ~2.2%; FAA goal likely to become more stringent • Fuel burn can be translated to lbs pollutants; ≠ significance • Establishing metrics/aviation contribution challenging Water • No analyses to date Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 24 The Way Forward: Understanding the Problem • Better science-based understanding of the impacts of aviation emissions on climate change • Improved metrics, measurement techniques, and modeling capability to quantify and predict impacts and to understand inter-relationships of aviation environmental factors Federal Aviation Administration 25 Significant and appropriate are policy decisions which are informed – but not established by science Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 •TheWay Forward: New Integrated Tools &Assessment The Way Forward: Integrated Regulatory Approach Policy and Scenarios APMT PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM BLOCK Operations APMT BENEFITS AEDT What are the noise and emission characteristics? Collected Costs VALUATION BLOCK Emissions CLIMATE IMPACTS LOCAL AIR QUALITY IMPACTS NOISE IMPACTS Monetized Benefits DEMAND (Consumers) Fares Schedule & SUPPLY (Carriers) Fleet Emissions Noise New Aircraft EDS Emissions & Noise What are the environmental implications & costs associated with a vehicle design? APMT COSTS & BENEFITS Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 26 The Way Forward: Integrated Assessment (3) 30 25 US$B2005 20 15 10 5 0 US emissions Yearly cost $16B/yr Preliminary Results Only--Do not cite US emissions Yearly cost $2.8B/yr 89 US airports $0.5B/yr (when annualized on a 30 year basis= $10B “one-time”cost) Climate Local Air Quality 3% discount rate Noise Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 27 The Way Forward: Improved ATM Procedures Opportunities • New technologies to improve air traffic management will help reduce emissions. An example is RVSM – Reduced Vertical Separation Minimums. Full implementation of RVSM may reduce fuel use by ~500 million gallons each year. Other operational approaches, such as continuous descent arrivals, can reduce fuel burn as well as noise Reducing congestion, and optimizing airport ground and terminal air space operations offer great promise for future reductions of noise and emissions Louisville CDA Flight Trials • • Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 28 The Way Forward: New Aircraft Technology Opportunities • Historically new technology accounts for 90% of environmental footprint reduction • New concepts offer promise for improvement • Collaborative demonstrations with industry can stimulate technology transition • Need a balance in maturing technologies and enabling revolutionary concepts Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 29 The Way Forward: Pursuit of New Fuels Opportunities • • • Synthetic Fuels may be Environmentally Friendly Helps Manage Interdependencies Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuel Initiative (CAAFI) • Securing a stable fuel supply • Furthering research and analysis • Assessing environmental impacts • Improving aircraft operations Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 30 The Way Forward: The Essential Partnership NASA •Technology research – enable revolutionary concepts •Alternative fuels research •Operational procedures research •Science to understand impacts •First principles analytical models FAA •Technology maturation •Alternative fuels assessment/certification •Operational procedures demonstration/advancement •Science & metrics and measurement techniques to quantify impacts •Analytical models Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 31 Outline • • • • • • The Historical Record The Evolving Challenges NextGen- The Way Forward FAA Proposals Can We Succeed? Closing Observations Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 32 The Way Forward: Proposals for New Programs • Research Consortium for Lower Energy, Emissions and Noise Technology Partnership “CLEEN” • Airport Cooperative Research Program • Environmental Mitigation Demonstration Pilot Program http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/reauthorization/ Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 33 LegislativeResearch Consortium CLEEN Proposal: CLEEN • Research Consortium for Lower Energy, Emissions and Noise Technology Partnership “CLEEN” • Establishes world-class consortium, via 50-50 cost share cooperative agreement, for development, & maturing of certifiable lower energy, emissions, noise engine & airframe technology over 10 years. • Includes performance objectives for fuel efficiency, NOx, noise, use of alternative fuels, retrofit potential. • Authorizes funding ($22M) from NextGen. Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 34 Legislative Proposal:Research Program (ACRP) Airport Cooperative Airport Cooperative Research Program • Makes ACRP permanent. • Adds $5 million a year from Airport Improvement Program (AIP) for environmental research for the airport environment, including— – Reduction of community exposure to noise – Reduction of aviation emissions – Addressing water quality Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 35 Legislative Proposal: Mitigation Demo Pilot Program Environmental Mitigation DemonstrationPilot Program • Environmental Mitigation Demonstration Pilot Program • Authorizes up to 6 projects to demonstrate at publicuse airports the practical benefits of promising research to reduce impacts on noise, air or water quality in the airport environment • 50% share funded from AIP noise/environmental setaside, not to exceed $2.5 million AIP per project • FAA would identify and disseminate best practice information based on project results Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 36 Outline • • • • • • The Historical Record The Evolving Challenges NextGen- The Way Forward FAA Proposals Can We Succeed? Closing Observations Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 37 Can We Succeed- An Initial Analysis (1) • Calculated metrics on a national basis: – Noise exposure (34 CONUS OEP airports) – Fuel efficiency for all operations at “top 100” airports • Used the Portfolio Analysis Phase 2 trajectories – Number of flights determined by trimming a 3x demand (JPDO goal) to achieve reasonable delays given NextGen mid-term (2012-2018) capacity. This resulted in nominally a 2x increase in flights. – Enroute trajectories include NextGen operational improvements that were modeled by SMAD operational models. – Terminal Area trajectories for the CONUS OEP airports include RNAV-RNP & CDA routes to all runway ends. Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 38 Can WaySucceed- An Initial Analysis (2) The We Forward: Partnership Is Crucial • Several projected fleets were used – MITRE projections to 2015 (“Baseline fleet”) – Best in class A/C in each seat class (“Best in class fleet”) • Best noise A/C for the noise calculations • Best fuel-burn A/C for the fuel burn calculations – Best in class fleet augmented with technology projections provided by the EWG Technology Standing Committee (“New technology fleet”) • New A/C were described in 3 of the 10 seat classes The best in class and new technology fleets are not achievable in the mid-term time frame, but their use enabled “benefit pool” calculations which bracket the environmental results for the mid-term. Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 39 Can We Succeed- Mid-Term Noise Results Initial Analysis: Mid-Term Noise Results Noise Results for Mid-Term NextGen 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 on -N ex tG en N ex tG N ex en tG & en Be N st ex in tG C en la ss & N ew Te ch -1 % /y r -2 % /y r ef er en ce -4 % /y r Goal Range of results > 65 DNL R • • Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Results for the Mid-Term NextGen w/oScenario fleets indicate that, as a advanced result of the increased # of flights enabled by NextGen, not only will the noise goals not be met but that the number of people exposed to ≥ 65DNL will increase. While neither of the “advanced” fleets is achievable in the near term, fleets with those characteristics would meet and exceed the current noise goals. Federal Aviation Administration 40 N Can We Succeed- Mid-Term Emissions Results Initial Analysis: Mid-Term Fuel Results Mid-term Fuel Efficiency 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Reference Goal @ 1%/yr red NonNextGen NextGen Goal Range of results Tg / Bkm NextGen & Best in class NextGen & New Tech Scenarios • The Mid-term NextGen fuel efficiency performance w/o advanced “fleets” is improved relative to the baseline but does not meet the goal. • While neither of the “advanced fleets” used is achievable in the near term they provide a method of estimating the potential “benefit pools” and bracketing the possible values of the fuel efficiency metric. • Both the “best-in class” and “new Growth Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge oftechnology” fleets exceed the fuel Federal Aviation Octoberefficiency goal. 30, 2007 Administration 41 Can We Succeed- Summary Results Initial Analysis: Summary Results • Noise and fuel metrics have been calculated for the modeled mid-term NextGen (2012-2018) using flight schedules trimmed to achieve reasonable delay. • The metrics were evaluated using several projected fleets – A baseline fleet based on expected A/C retirements and replacements. – Two “advanced” fleets. These fleets are not achievable in the mid- term time frame, but their use enabled “benefit pool” calculations which bracket the environmental results for the mid-term. • The desired mid-term noise and fuel efficiency goals were not met using the baseline projected fleet • The benefit of incorporating aircraft with improved performance and new technologies into the fleet is indicated since both “advanced” fleets surpassed the fuel and noise goals Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 42 Outline • • • • • • The Historical Record The Evolving Challenges NextGen- The Way Forward FAA Proposals Can We Succeed? Closing Observations Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 43 Some Closing Observations Concluding Observations • Despite past progress, environmental constraints to aviation growth real Future challenges likely to be more complex NextGen will not achieve environmental goals without technology and operational improvements in environmental and cost performance Initial assessments indicate success is possible Partnership between FAA and NASA efforts is essential • • • • Aviation and Environment- Managing the Challenge of Growth October 30, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration 44