BC Hydro’s LTAP and the Long-Term Electricity Transmission Inquiry
Presentation to the BCUC Preliminary Workshop Randy Reimann
BC Hydro Manager, Resource Planning April 17, 2009
Overview
• BC Hydro:
– Who We Are – What We Do
• Energy Planning Today: A 20 year plan • The Long-term Transmission Inquiry: Looking forward 30 years
Who We Are
• A Crown Corporation • Established in 1961 • Over 5,000 employees • Receive guidance from the provincial government through several policy instruments, including a Shareholder’s Letter of Expectations and BC Energy Plan. • BC Hydro is regulated by the British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC) under the Utilities Commission Act.
What We Do
• •
BC Hydro's primary business activities are the generation and distribution of electricity. Transmission of that electricity is facilitated by the BC Transmission Corporation on behalf of BC Hydro and other power providers in B.C. BC Hydro serves customers in an area containing about 94% of British Columbia's population
•
Our System
• BC Hydro operates 30 hydroelectric facilities and three natural gas-fired thermal power plants. • About 90% of the province's electricity is produced by major hydroelectric generating stations on the Columbia and Peace river systems and in the Coastal Region. • BC Hydro's thermal power plants and Independent Power Producers contribute the remaining 10 per cent of generation. • BC Hydro also serves 17 communities – known as nonintegrated areas – that are not linked to our transmission network.
Meeting B.C.’s Future Electricity Needs
• BC Hydro is planning now to meet future energy needs in B.C.
Conserving more Power Smart; energy efficiency standards for buildings; smart metering, rate incentives; public campaigns Buying more IPPs/renewable resources; clean power call; standing offer program; bioenergy call
Building more Reinvesting in existing assets, $3.4 billion in next two years; considering new options for firm energy
BC Hydro & BCTC Overview
• BCTC plans, operates and manages BC Hydro’s transmission system • BC Hydro requests transmission service from BCTC through the Network Integration Transmission Service (NITS) process • BC Hydro’s transmission service requests are based on a base resource plan and contingency resource plans (CRPs) that result from its Long-Term Acquisition Plan (LTAP)
2008 LTAP Context - Summary
• BC Hydro required to file long-term resource plans with BC Utilities Commission (BCUC) under Utilities Commission Act (UCA) • 2008 LTAP Considerations
– Update of 2006 Integrated Electricity Plan (IEP)/LTAP – BCUC 2006 IEP/LTAP Decision
• Need for new resources accepted (further work on Burrard needed) • More work required on assessing risk
– 2007 Energy Plan
• Target to acquire 50 per cent of BC Hydro’s incremental resource needs through conservation by 2020 • Thermal generation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be fully offset or sequestered • 90% clean or renewable generation • Province to be electricity self-sufficient by 2016
–Special Direction 10
– UCA Amendments
LTAP Process
Load Forecast
Key Risks and Uncertainties
Step 1 Establish Objectives
Step 2 - Load Resource Balance
Step 4 – Develop & Evaluate Portfolios
Step 5 – Portfolio Trade-Off Analysis
Step 6 – LongTerm Acquisition Plan
Attributes
Step 3 – Resource Options Inventory
Energy Planning Engagement
2 0 05 IE P S t a k e h o ld e r & F i r s t N ation s En g a ge m e n t
B r o a d P u b l ic
R e g io n a l
F ir s t N a t io n s
P r o v in c ia l I E P C o m m it t e e
R e s o u r c e O p ti o n s W o rk s h o p s O pe n s es s i on to p r o v id e b r o a d r e v ie w o f in p u t s to the IE P p ro c e s s
S u r v e y / W e b s i te
R e g io n a l I n f o r m a t io n S e s s io n s an d W o rk s h o p s
Inp u t a s r eq u es te d
R e s o u r c e O p t io n s R e p o rt
S e le c t e d C o m m it t e e t o u n d e rt a k e f a c i lit a t e d d e c is i o n s a n a ly s is p r o c e s s
B r o a d P u b l ic
R e g io n a l
F ir s t N a t io n s
P r o v in c ia l I E P C o m m it t e e
2 0 0 5 IE P / A c t io n P la n
2005/06
2008 LTAP 2008 LTAP Engagement Engagement
Public Communications
Intervenors
Resource Options
Fort Nelson
2008 LTAP
2007/08
2008 LTAP Components
• Expenditure Determination Requests
– – – – – – Burrard Demand-Side Management (DSM) Plan Clean Power Call Definition Fort Nelson Mica Units Site C
• Justification for Expenditures
– – – – – – – Load Resource Gap Risk Framework 2007 Electricity and Gas Price Forecasts GHG and Renewable Energy Credit (REC) Price Forecast Resource Options Update Portfolio Analysis Contingency Resource Plans
2008 LTAP Load-Resource Balance
70,000 68,000 66,000 Firm Energy Capability (GWh) 64,000 62,000 60,000 58,000 56,000 54,000 52,000 50,000
F2 00 9
F2 01 0 F2 01 1 F2 01 2
F2 01 3
2008 Load Forecast Range after DSM
F2 01 4 F2 01 5 F2 01 6 F2 01 7
Fiscal Year (year ending March 31) Existing and Committed Supply
Planned IPP Purchases
F2 01 8 F2 01 9
F2 02 0 F2 02 1 F2 02 2
2008 Mid Load Forecast after DSM
F2 02 3
F2 02 5 F2 02 6 F2 02 7
F2 02 4
F2 02 8
2008 LTAP CRP Shortfall Risks
Risk Capacity Reduction for CRP Purposes (MW) F2017 Load Forecast Uncertainty DSM Deliverability Risk 530 270 F2028 930 450
Burrard Unit Catastrophic Failure
150
150
Calls Capacity Reduction Total Reduction:
50 1,000
n/a 1,530
Regional Planning: Fort Nelson
• BC Hydro supplies Ft. Nelson customers with Ft. Nelson Generating Station (FNG) and AESO • BC Hydro is working with project proponents to assess and update the regional load forecast • 2008 LTAP requests BCUC approval of expenditures to implement upgrades to the FNG • Because of the possibility of additional load growth, BC Hydro is advancing investigation of additional supply
Fort Nelson
Connected to Alberta grid
LTAP Process: BCH & BCTC Interactions
BC Hydro
Resource Options
Develop Alternative Portfolios
Portfolio Analysis
LTAP & CRPs
Ti m ing o f Tra S nsm yste issio mR e n Req inforc ui reme ement nts
BC Hydro/BCTC
p Sup
f le o urce edu o Sch M Res S ly/D itions Add
BCTC
Transmission Project Information e.g., - Cost - Land Impact
Input
BCTC Transmission System Model
BC Hydro-BCTC Planning Processes
BC Hydro
LTAP & CRPs
NITS Application
BC Hydro RRA
BC Hydro/BCTC
NITS Study BC Hydro Inputs: Load & Resource Plans BCTC: System Studies NITS Agreement
BCUC Review
BCTC Capital Planning Process
BCTC Capital Plan
Transmission Revenue Requirement Application
BCTC
2008 LTAP Process
• 2008 LTAP submitted to BCUC on June 12, 2008 • Evidentiary Update with revised load, DSM and call attrition information submitted December 22, 2008 • Oral hearing phases completed March 2009 • BC Hydro Written Argument submitted April 9, 2009 • Decision expected summer 2009
2008 LTAP & Transmission Inquiry Linkages
2008 LTAP Load Forecast •Domestic need •20 years •High, Mid, Low forecasts •20 years •Update of 2006 IEP/LTAP •Resource blocks ranked on unit energy cost (UEC) •Self-sufficiency •Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) Transmission Inquiry •Provincial focus •30 years •Scenarios •30 years •Grouped by geographic location •Cost-effective and probable sequence of development •Access to market
Load-Resource Balance Electricity Resource Potential
Market Assessment