INTERNATIONAL TOUISM GLOBAL COMPETITION AND THE FUTURE Prof. Dr. İge Pirnar Global Competition and The Future The future of the international tourism industry is closely tied to worldwide political, social and economic changes and to long-term trends in domestic and international tourism. The increase in economic interdependence among nations and the expansion of international business and trade will continue to drive the tourism industry toward globalization. Some of the global trends likely to influence the international tourism industry during the first twenty years of new millenium and beyond. Long term Tourism Growth Trends • Tourism is the most rapidly growing industry in the new world economy. • The global economy is key to the hospitality industry, as growth in international business travel is expected to exceed that of leisure travel. This disparity in growth rates will be especially marked for arrivals to Europe, North America and the new industrialized countries of Asia. Leisure travel, on the other hand, will grow faster than business travel in Southeast Asia, South Asia (especially China) and the Pacific (excluding Japan and the newly ind. Countries). Factors Influencing Future Growth • The long term trend for travel is clearly upward and the opportunities for tourism expansion are promising. The principal long term factors affecting tourism demand are the globalization of industry, demographic and social changes, increasing leisure and holiday time, changes in consumer preferences, economic growth and the overall investment environment. Short term influences include cost of travel, price changes and exchange rate parities, travel barriers, marketing and promotion, as well as extraneous factors including legislative / regulatory changes, political stability, technological developments, trading developments, transport developments, and the safety of travel. Figure 1. Forces of change in the tourist system. Source: Cooper Ch., Fletscher J., Gilbert D., Wanhill., Tourism – Principles & Practice, Pitman Piblishing, Surrey 1993, p. 266. Megatrend Influences on the Tourist Market • The end of the twentieth century was a time of great transformation in all fields of life. There were many fast paced changes throughout social conditions, the economy, and technology, which brought about many transitions within tourism. The constant tendencies to observe and gain knowledge about the markets basic condition are needed to succeed with each activity and the trends within tourism can change quickly. The ability to forecast and stimulate these developmental processes is the key to making the correct decisions for the future. The fluxuation and competition within the tourist market not only requires constant observation and the ability to anticipate change, but also being able to react to the new trend before it becomes the norm. This shows the importance of knowledge in the action of these megatrends, which can be classified into six basic groups; demographics, politics, social and cultural, economics, technology, and ecology. These six factors are presented in table. Table 1. The megatrends and the tourism development. Demographic factors, especially: Political factors, especially: age of societies; changes in Central-West Europe; tendencies to set up home late; integration of the European Union; a smaller number of households; liberalisation of international migrations; a dominant model of family 2+1; convenience passports, foreign currency; increasing number of lonely people; unstable political situation in many regions of the world; increasing number of childless couples; international terrorism; increasing number of working women. increased importance of safe travel Social & cultural factors, especially: Economical factors, especially: shortened time of working, more free time and continuation of moderate economical increase in the longer vacations; world scale; increase of time for additional work; a bigger disproportion between rich and poor countries; earlier retirements; a bigger financial crisis in a number of countries increasing number of "two-income" households; (especially, among “economical tigers" in South Asia and which were thought of as a healthy life; Pacific); a family crisis; a stable price of petroleum; conflicts between identity and modernisation, liberalisation and development of an international trade; especially in developing countries capital concentration in world's economy; a radical demands and increases of importance globalisation of economical activity; of ethnic movement etc. Technological factors, especially: Ecological factors, especially: automation and computerisation; smaller environmental resources developing of telecommunication a greater ecological awareness in society; developing of computing systems; government's concern with environment; developing of transport and infrastructure conflicts causes by developing of a big agglomerations ( (airports, motorways); in developing and developed countries ); use of modern technologies in everyday life development of the ecological movement (household articles, sport, tourist equipment); international collaboration in field of natural and cultural developing of soft technologies; environment protection; Demographic, Economic and Social Trends • Population growth is projected to slow down in both the more developed and the less developed regions. However, whereas the growth rate remains positive for the less developed regions until 2050, it turns negative after 2025 for the more developed regions. By 2045-2050, the population in the more developed regions is projected to be declining at a rate of -0.19 per cent per year, whereas the population of the less developed regions will be growing at a robust rate of 0.57 per cent per year. • The EU population is ageing…. • The EU population is ageing and old age dependency rates will increase. Although fertility increased slightly from 1.45 children per woman in 1999 to 1.47 in 2001, it is still well below the replacement level of 2.1. • As living standards improve, the population of many nations will be healthier, live longer and have greather discretionary spending power. Travel restrictions are rapidly being relaxed. People from all countries are travelling more frequently and farther afield. • Life expectancy has almost doubled in the past century and is continuing to lengthen. In Europe, for example, in 2003, people aged 65 and over represent 16% of the total population (total pop. of EU, in approximation, 379 million at 01.01.2003) while those 15 countries, member of EU, represent 17%. By 2010 these ratios will become 18% and 16%. The most dramatic increase will occur in the number of 'very old' people (aged over 80), which will rise by almost 50% over the next 15 years. These groups represents a healty and relatively wealty segment for tapping by the travel industry. The scenario is similar in North America and Japan; by the year 2025, about one in five Americans and one in four Japanese will be over 65. Competition from Other Sources • In the future, competition for discretionary income will be strong coming from other industries with alternatives that may reduce the need for hotel, rooms or for travel altogether. The airlines’ offering of more frequent flights, shorter flying times, and lower airfares, for example, has eliminated the need for an overnight stay, and thus a hotel room, for many business travelers. • Particularly in the European market, do-it-yourself accommodations, such as holiday camps, caravans and camping, rented flats and villas and second homes have taken over as main providers of holiday accommodations. Other substitutions include recreational vehicles, timeshare offerings and cruise lines. The cruise industry offers another substitute for hotel rooms; both supply and demand continue to increase for cruise holidays. • Telecommunications tools, such as teleconferencing and video technology, continues to facilitate business relations as an other substitute to business travel. Deregulation and Free Trade • Many countries in Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia are moving from central planning toward market-oriented economies. This trend will help to stimulate both domestic and international travel. • Forecasts for the increase of travel are based on the assumption that these economic and trade-liberalizing trends of the 1980s and 1990s will continue and the international trade will see substantial growth with more countries actively participating as both exporters and importers. • Industry regulations are also very important to growth of international and national tourism flows. Some sectors of the international travel industry, such as airlines and tour operators, are greatly affected by regulations that govern the rights to markets across national boundaries. Single European Market • The European Union (EU) is a union of democratic European countries. Growing from six Member States in 1952 to 15 by 1995, 25 by 2004 (Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland, Sweden, United Kingdom, Belgium, Denmark, Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia,Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia), and 3 applicant countries (Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey). The European Union today embraces more than 370 million people, from the Arctic Circle to Portugal, from Ireland to Crete. Though rich in diversity, the Member States share certain common values. Unions’ goal is the elimination of trade barriers, standardization of trade duties and value added taxes, elimination of border controls and custom checks. • Such a community without internal borders is positively affecting the tourism industry, particularly as aviation becomes less constrained by regulations and restrictive rules. Transportation in EU • The liberalization of transportation within the EU has the goal of providing greater competition, better services, and more consumer choice. The main proposals were designed to achieve: (1) more competitive pricing with greatier flexibility on tariffs, (2) more liberal capacity controls between bilateral partners, and (3) more liberal market access, allowing direct competition between airlines on major routes. • In response to some of the liberalization measures, airline mergers and takeovers are emerging as a key part in the survival strategies of many carriers. Cooperative agreements, partnerships, and other types of alliances are also becoming more common both within and across national boundaries. SAS, Swissair, Austrian Airlines, and Finnair, for example, have created a “quality alliance” including the design of more efficient timetables, the development of joint service facilities, and the standardization of amenities. • Congested airports and air traffic control problems also new problems of the EU as well as other developed part of the world. Until essential air traffic control system improvements are in place, larger airports would provide few gains in passenger growth. Tour Operators and Travel Agents in EU • The unification of European markets is making it increasingly feasible and attractive for tour operators to reach beyond their indigenous markets into neighboring countries. Economies of scale would give a natural advantage to those tour operators based in Europe’s biggest holiday markets. • The unification have the most profound impact, direct and indirect, on the region’s retail travel agents. Agents, who are already threatened by the steady growth of direct-sell tour operators and multiple retail chains and by the blurring of distinctions between operators and agencies, affected by the development on telecommunication technology and computer reservation systems. Standardized Currency (Economic and Monetary Union) • A single European currency should come into circulation on 1 January 1999, replacing national currencies as from 1 January 2002, and helping to make the man in the street more aware of belonging to a new entity. • The emergence of the single European currency is the result of lengthy, patient development. Tourism Growth In Major Regions Tourist Arrivals International Tourist Arrivals Change Share (million) (%) (%) 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002* 01/00 02*/01 2002* World 455.9 550.4 687.3 684.1 702.6 -0.5 2.7 100 Africa 15.0 20.0 27.4 28.3 29.1 3.2 2.8 4.1 Americas 93.0 108.8 128.0 120.2 114.9 -6.1 -4.4 16.3 Asia and the Pacific 57.7 85.6 115.3 121.1 131.3 5.1 8.4 18.7 Europe 280.6 322.3 392.7 390.8 399.8 -0.5 2.3 56.9 Northern Europe 32.3 41.4 46.8 44.6 46.4 -4.7 4.1 6.6 Western Europe 113.8 116.7 142.8 139.2 141.1 -2.6 1.4 20.1 Central/Eastern Europe 39.0 61.4 62.3 63.4 65.2 1.8 2.9 9.3 Southern Europe 88.1 91.3 126.1 129.0 131.0 2.3 1.5 18.6 East Mediterranean Eu. 7.4 11.4 14.7 14.7 16.1 -0.1 9.4 2.3 Middle East 9.7 13.6 24.0 23.6 27.6 -1.3 16.7 3.9 2020 Vision • Tourism 2020 Vision is the World Tourism Organization's long-term forecast and assessment of the development of tourism up to the first 20 years of the new millennium. An essential outcome of the Tourism 2020 Vision are quantitative forecasts covering a 25 years period, with 1995 as the base year and forecasts for 2000, 2010 and 2020. • Although the evolution of tourism in the last few years has been irregular, WTO maintains its long-term forecast. WTO's Tourism 2020 Vision forecasts that international arrivals are expected to reach over 1.56 billion by the year 2020. Of these worldwide arrivals in 2020, 1.2 billion will be intraregional and 0.4 billion will be long-haul travellers. • The total tourist arrivals by region shows that by 2020 the top three receiving regions will be Europe (717 million tourists), East Asia and the Pacific (397 million) and Americas (282 million), followed by Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, the Middle East and Africa are forecasted to record growth at rates of over 5 percent per year, compared to the world average of 4.1 per cent. The more mature regions Europe and Americas are anticipated to show lower than average growth rates. Europe will maintain the highest share of world arrivals, although there will be a decline from 60 % in 1995 to 46 % in 2020. In 2003… • Worldwide tourism was affected negatively by conflict in Iraq and outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) discouraged people from travelling overseas. For airlines, the impact of Sars was more severe than the Iraq conflict on consumer confidence. Scheduled international passenger traffic worldwide decreased by 2.6 per cent overall during the first four months of 2003. The Asia Pacific region was the worst affected, with decreases in air travel of 36 per cent recorded, while North America saw a drop of 22 per cent. In 2005… • Worldwide tourism was affected negatively by bird flue which again discouraged people from travelling overseas. • Political disputes, still never ending problems of countries like Iraq, negativelly affected world travel. Privatization • Privatization –that is, the transfer of public ownership of manufacturing or services enterprices to private parties- is a policy option being actively pursued in countries all over the world. The trend toward privatization evolved form a growing realization by governments that state enterprises are generally much less efficent in the use of capital and labor than private companies in making products and providing services. State-owned enterprises generally undermine competition in the marketplace as they are usually protected by government in verious ways and subsidized when operating at a loss. The increased financial burden put on government budgets by state enterprises and the ability to rise state revanues with private sector sales also helps to explain the growing privatization movement. Privatization in Turkish Tourism • In Turkey, Istanbul Congress Palace, Cesme Hotel and its annexes, Kemer Marina Hotel, Ilica Motel, Elmadag Auberge, 2 lands in Istinye, Akcay Holiday Resort, Bodrum, Kusadasi and Kemer Marinas have been privatized during 1991-1999 period. • Turban withdrew from the operations and administration of Amasya, Samsun, Corum, Erciyes, Urfa and Adalya Hotels, Kaleici Marina, Gumuldur and Marmaris Holiday Resort and Beldibi and Belek tourism establisments. • Tender announcement for the block sale of Abant Hotel, Carlton Hotel's land and a land in Akcay has been published on September 29, 1999. No bids were received for Akcay's land and tender was annulled. Transportation Developments • Aircraft Technology • New aircraft technology can be expected to contribute to further gains on weight and fuel efficiency, which in turn adds to aircraft range and payload. • Their innovative management strategies should also be pointed out, their use of the new technologies, new business strategies and ways to gain access to customers and the market. • In addition to the continuing development of larger and more fuel-efficient aircraft, the removal of restrictive legislation on airline operations will influence the cost of travel. • The price of fuel-oil, which affects the transport components and the energy cost of hotels, is another key factor in the cost of travel. Transportation Developments Train Technology Japan is pioneering maglev (magnetic levitation) trains that can reach a speed of up to 420 kph. High speed rail lines are planned all over Europe. London, Paris and Brussels have fast, frequent, high quality passenger service with feeder lines from other cities. High-speed trains, particularly in Europe, are likely to become the preffered alternative to air travel where airport congestion, delays and hassles are increasing. These trains may provide as convenient and rapid a method of transport as air travel for both business and leisure travelers. The high-speed train lines (with datas belong to 2002) are as follows: 1. France (250 kph) 6. Sweden (175,1 kph), 2. Japan (230 kph) 7. Eurostar (171,5 kph), 3. Spain (217,9 kph) 8. Italy ( 162,0 kph), 4. Germany (200 kph) 9. USA ( 153,6 kph) 5. UK (177,1 kph), 10. Canada (144,3 kph) Transportation Developments Deregulation The effects of changing consumer behaviors and economic and social progress requires the deregulation of services related to tourism such as airline industry, hotels, etc. The US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and EU have substantially deregulated their air services, resulting in fare reductions, cost cutting, bankruptcies, and the emergence of a much smaller group of large carriers. The deregulation of air transport in Western Europe and the relaxation of regulation governing charters allows for the possibility of large numbers of tourists arriving at a destination without booked accommodation. Transportation Developments Transportation Infrastructure Throughout the world, the vastly increased numbers of travelers are forcing the aviation industry to face very real facility shortages. Lack of airport and airspace capacity has emerged as one of the leading constraints to travel throughout the world. Providing more runway capacity, terminals, and other facilities will require huge new investments and strong government support to overcome powerful opposition. The question of how these improvements are to be financed remains an important issue. In many cases, it is likely to be a joint government- private sector initiative. Other solutions to the problem include promoting off-peak tourism and confining charter services to specific airports. Technology and Automation • Faced with a need to boost productivity and to improve efficiency, the hotel industry is moving toward automation. Many computerized systems have been designed to address the specific requirements of the hotel industry; at the same time, the costs of equipment and software have fallen dramatically. • In the six interrelated areas of hotel technology 1. information processing, 2. telecommunications, 3. energy conservation, 4. fire safety, 5. security, and 6. audiovisual systems- the problem is no longer whether to automate, but how much automation makes sense, what to select, and how to use it effectively. • Today’s packaged property management systems will increasingly evolve to offer more user options with respect to functions and property size. • Improved technology in back-office systems, registration, guest intelligence, smart cards, voice messaging, and so forth all have the ability to raise productivity and efficiency. Property Management System have proven useful for inventory management, menu planning, and analysis. E-Tourism • A view on some 10 years ahead to outline some key trends and future attributes of tourism services suggests the following tentative picture; • Increased popularity and capabilities of the Internet for a wide spectrum of applications for electronic services in tourism, making distribution cannels less dependent from traditional CRS of airlines; • Internet and supporting services by further new intermediaries will significantly transform, if not eliminate, the role of traditional travel intermediaries (travel agents working on commissions paid); • Direct on-line bookings by customers will make up a significant market share by 2010 with access available to most of the population in industrailized countries; • “Virtual tourists” will have an increasing demand for multi-media travel information; • Interactive TV and mobile devices will increasingly be used for the distribution of tourism products and services, E-Tourism • The majority of tourism organizations will also use Intranets; • Products and services will reach a much higher level of personalization together with a corresponding demand; • The strongly risen share of people over 50s in the industrialized countries will effect a higher demand for e- services related to foreign travel, particularly to long haul destinations and travel for culture purposes as well as eco- tourism; • Further growth of “time poor” – “money rich” people will entail a high demand for short time holidays while, on the other hand, all-inclusive holidays will be demanded by a large number of people with needs for complete, unburdened relaxation and release from job pressures; • Particular uses of electronic technology will include smart cards for a variety of functions, including the management of destination loyalty schemes (discounts in exchange for customer data and loyalty), bonus schemes for environment-protective behaviour, etc.; • E-Tourism test- Internet video telephones will allow customers to take drives for a particular destination by pictures from cameras placed at various sites in the holiday locality and transmitted via Internet; • Efforts to build up central databases of traveler information will be continued for use to get extensive insight into individual preferences and behavioural patterns so that the information can be used for active marketing; • Mobile city guides will be widespread and electronic brochures in the form of CD-ROMs will increasingly replace paper brochures. • Tourism providers will more easily and more often form strategic partnerships, offering complementary products. • Small and medium sized businesses will be forced to take a more strategic approach on doing business; new mediators on the market will assist in doing so. • Hotels will increasingly have to employ extensive branding and marketing strategies. Development Issues • Hotel Design • Outside of major urban areas, the future hotel is much more likely to be in environmental harmony with its community. • Accommodation will be developed to match their environmental settings and the local culture will provide inspiration for the design of building features, motifs, furniture, furnishings, and artifacts. • Humanistic scale of buildings and the use of indigenous materials and methods will be more common. This approach will both maximize the economic benefit to be gained by the host community from hotel development and provide what travelers increasingly want when they seek an experience away from home. • Time and cost factors will influence hotel building programs. Development Issues Guestrooms The hotel guestrooms of the future is likely to be better designed and more functional. In appropriate locations, rooms will have full office facilities both in the form of work stations and available business equipment. Some hotels takes customers to outer space (figuratively, of course), medieval castles, or even to prison. Development Issues Energy Systems Focused energy management and waste reduction will become more common in the future design of hotels. Solar energy may be more widely used to heat swimming pools and domestic hot water and for limited space heating. Heat recovery from the various air conditioning, cooking, and lighting systems will substantially reduce the demand for thermal energy, as will more efficient lighting systems. All of these improvements in the physical design of a building will mean that basic energy systems will be scaled down considerably, reducing such costs. Development Issues Safety Systems With regard to guest safety, litigation and consumer protection trends will influence hotel design and standards. The growing number of female business travelers, in particular, will place a high priority on personal safety. In the last decade or so, new security equipment (closed-circuit television, keyless door locking systems, and so forth) have helped to combat hotel crime. Hotels that have installed such systems, demonstrating a high commitment to guest security, will have an advantage over their competitors who have not. Development Issues Land Use Land scarcity is a growing concern for hotel developers, especially in densely populated cities, like London, Istanbul, New York and Paris. Overall, land shortages in urban centers will force the hotel industry to become more flexible and to seek non- traditional paths to expansion in order to make profitable investments. Development Issues • Mixed-Use Developments • A development approach becoming more prevalent is the combination of hotel development with other real estate projects, frequently referred to as “mixed use development”. For example, new and converted developments that combine retail space, entertainment, offices, and hotel and residential uses are becoming more and more common. • Within the overall mixed use development concept, the rising concern for environmental issues and historic preservation can often be accommodate. • The preservation of historic buildings has long been recognized as a priority in North America and Europe, but it’s now spreading more widely. Hotels and the Environment • Hotels can play a significant role in the move to sustainable tourism development. Moreover, they can realize solid and measurable economic benefits as a direct result of environmental initiatives. Hoteliers can lower operating costs while at the same time building a more positive public profile. • Consequently, higher standards of environmental protection concept will undoubtedly influence hotel construction. Certainly, hap-hazard and unlimited development will no longer be tolerated. • Hotels that willingly take up the environmental gauntlet before they are forced to may have a competitive advantage. A number of hotel companies, including Hyatt Hotels, Inter-Continental, and Ramada International, have already implemented company-wide environmental policies. Ecotourism Ecotourism is a nature-based form of specialty travel defined as "responsible travel to natural areas which conserves the environment and sustains the well-being of local people." Demand for ecotourism appears to be growing. The growth of interest at a world level in conservation and intimacy with nature signals a promising future for ecotourism in many parts of the world, particularly developing countries, which attract the bulk of ecotourists. However, growth presents numerous long-term challenges. The major issues include: -the necessity to keep ecotourism enterprises small-scaled, despite demand, in order to avoid damage to the environment, -limited market demand and few opportunities for repeat business, -long-term sustainability of local value systems and lifestyles, -possible environmental degradation despite attempts at control over access and use, -the fact that visitors generally don’t pay for the full cost of the maintaining the site, -ecotourism destination areas lack strong marketing support. Sustainable Tourism Development "Sustainable tourism development meets the needs of present tourists and host regions while protecting and enhancing opportunities for the future. It is envisaged as leading to management of all resources in such a way that economic, social and aesthetic needs can be fulfilled while maintaining cultural integrity, essential ecological processes, biological diversity and life support systems." Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Sustainable tourism requires that carrying capacity studies for destinations and hotel development sites be conducted, then rigorously implemented through a system of effective planning and operating controls. Agenda 21 For Travel And Tourism On June 14, 1992, 173 governments came together at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED). Putting aside economic, religious, cultural and political differences, delegates unanimously adopted Agenda 21. Agenda 21 is a global blueprint for the future of our planet. The involvement and the empowerment of local people underpin the philosophy of Agenda 21. Agenda 21 for the Travel and Tourism Industry, inspired by the United Nation's Agenda 21, was produced by the World Tourism Organization and the Earth Council (WTTC). The guide provides a systemic approach to planning and taking action for hotels and other members of tourism destination that will lead to sustainable travel and tourism. Sustainable transportation Sustainable transportation can be described as moving people and goods in cleaner, greener ways and, where possible, not moving people and goods at all. The Centre for Sustainable Transportation defines a sustainable transportation system to be one which: 1. Allows the basic access need of individuals and societies to be met safety and in a manner consistent with human and ecosystem health, and with equity within and between generations. 2. Is affordable, operates efficiently, offers choice of transport mode, and supports a vibrant economy. 3. Limits emissions and waste within the planet's ability to absorb them, minimizes consumption of non-renewable resources, reuses and recycles its components, and minimizes the use of land and the production of noise. Alternative Tourism Alternative tourism can be used as a broad term covering such strategies as “appropriate toursim”, “soft tourism”, “responsible tourism”, “controlled tourism”, “small-scale tourism” “cottage tourism”, “green tourism” and others. It basically represents an alternative to complement mass tourism in serving the needs and desires of specific types of visitors who are interested in authentic experiences of nature or culture. Especially as it is applied in Europe, alternative tourism may help to supplement incomes of rural dwellers in marginal areas through such means as farm tourism, guiding, mountain trekking, craft demonstrations, language-learning holidays, and bed and breakfast establishments. Human Resource Issues The tourism industry has historically been dependent on a good supply of labour. Indeed, cheap labor represents a major comperative advantage for building and operating hotels in developing countries. The three primary problem areas identified by IHA are: -the availablity of labor, -monitoring and motivating labor, -the provision of training. The solutions to labor problems are as varied as the causes in different parts of the world. Ultimately, it will be up to the industry to make itself a more attractive employer and to improve in the recruitment, retention, training, and reward of staff. Until such time as hospitality careers begin to enjoy the same status and standing as other professions in the eyes of the general public, human resource issues will remain a serious challange for the industry. Hotel Company Diversification In order to promote growth, hotel companies over the past two decades have pursued strategies of territorial expansion and diversification of hotel products. Diversification was also an effort to develop and target niche products and services for and to particular user groups. The standard transient hotel has gradually been giving way to more focused products, such as the all-suit hotel, hotels with executive floors, casino hotels, convention hotels, conference centers with accommodations, special purpose resorts, boutique hotels, and so forth. Mergers, Acquisitions, Cooperative Arrangements The tourism industry is likely to see continuing trend toward consolidation (mergers, acquisitions, and partnerships). Tomarrow’s hotel industry may very well filter down to two broad types of operators; a smaller number of major global operators and a larger number of relatively small-scale “niche players” catering to specialty markets. The small hotel stands as the backbone of the tourism industry in most countries, and there are still opportunities to develop location-specific and type-specific facilities and services. Space Tourism • Space Tourism is the term that's come to be used to mean ordinary members of the public buying tickets to travel to space and back. Many people find this idea futuristic. But over the past few years a growing volume of professional work has been done on the subject, and it's now clear that setting up commercial space tourism services is a realistic target for business today. • The first steps will just be short sub-orbital flights, since these are easier than getting to orbit. But the technical know-how to make passenger launch vehicles and orbiting hotel accommodation is available, and there is enormous unsatisfied demand - market research has revealed that most people, at least in the industrialized countries, would like to take a trip to space if it was possible. This gives huge scope for reducing the cost of space travel by large-scale operation like airlines. Space Tourism • Phases of Space Tourism • Like any other business, once space tourism gets started it will develop progressively. It can be helpful to think of it as going through several phases. Starting with a relatively small-scale and relatively high-priced "pioneering phase", the scale of activity will grow and prices will fall as it matures. Finally it will become a mass-market business, like aviation today. • Space tourism is an idea whose time has come. It's going to start soon, and it's going to grow rapidly, generating the funds needed to open up space to a wide range of human activities. • ....and, it is the time to discuss the management of inter- planets Orbital Hotels.