LONDON 2012
THE INSPIRATIONAL OLYMPIC & PARALYMPIC GAMES
Managing risks for the London Olympic
Transport programme – A glimpse
Dr Das Mootanah
Olympic Delivery Authority
Presentation to ACCA Network
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AGENDA
1. Olympic Programme Overview 2. Transport Programme Overview 3. Transport Risk Management 4. Lessons Learnt so far 5. Questions
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Olympic Programme Overview
The Olympic Games is the world’s biggest event
–203 countries –5,000 Olympic Family –17,800 athletes & team officials –22,000 media –7.7 million tickets sold
The Paralympic Games takes place two weeks later
–170 countries –1,000 Paralympic Family –4,000 athletes & team officials –4,000 media –1.4 million tickets sold
100,000 workforce including volunteers 4 billion global audience
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LONDON 2012 OBJECTIVES
1. To stage an inspirational Olympic Games and Paralympic Games for the athletes, the Olympic Family and the viewing public 2. To deliver the Olympic Park and all venues on time, within agreed budget and to specification, minimising the call on public funds and providing for a sustainable legacy 3. To maximise the economic, social, health and environmental benefits of the Games for the UK, particularly through regeneration and sustainable development in East London 4. To achieve a sustained improvement in UK sport before, during and after the Games, in both elite performance – particularly in Olympic and Paralympic sports – and grassroots participation
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ODA OBJECTIVES
–Create infrastructure and facilities associated with Games venues to time and agreed budget in accordance with the principles of sustainable development –Deliver Olympic and Paralympic venues to time, to design and building specification and to agreed budget, providing for agreed legacy use
–Deliver necessary transport infrastructure for Games, and devise and implement effective transport plans which provide for legacy use –Deliver agreed sustainable legacy plans for the Olympic Park and all venues
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OLYMPIC TIMELINE
2006 / 7
TO BEIJING
2008 / 2011
2012
START UP
DEMOLISH DIG DESIGN
THE BIG BUILD
TESTING & FINAL PREPARATIONS
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OLYMPIC BUDGET
Base costs: £5,117m
(incl. Site preparation & infrastructure, Venues, Transport, Other Park wide projects, Olympic Village, International Broadcast Centre / Main Press Centre, Programme Delivery, Tax)
Project Contingency: £973m
ODA Base Budget = £6,090m
ODA Programme Contingency: £968m Funders’ Group Contingency: £1,041m Total funding available to the ODA: £8,099m
Other costs and provisions (Non-ODA):
Support for elite & community sport, Paralympics: £388m Policing & wider security: £600m Contingency for policing & wider security : £238m Total: £9,325m
Funded by Lottery, Council Tax, the Mayor, Central Government
Source: NAO Report, June 08
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WHO WE ARE
‘deliver venues, facilities and infrastructure
and transport on time for the London 2012 Olympic Games and Paralympic Games that are fit-for-purpose and in a way that maximises the delivery of a sustainable legacy within the available budget’
IOC
Contract holder
LOCOG
Olympic Delivery Authority
Olympic Act
Land
Olympic Park
ODA Transport
Delivery Partners:
CLM
TfL, NR, TOCs, Local Authorities, BAA, Highways Agency, Eurostar, Javelin – CTRL, Rivers Industry
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LEVELS OF SCRUTINY
–DCMS –National Audit Office – Financial & Value for Money –Office of Government Commerce –Commission for Sustainable London –Funders – GLA, LDA, Lottery, Sport England –Olympic Family Members – OPRG, LOCOG, IOC, BOA –Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure –Parliamentary Committees –Funders Committee –Government Departments – DfT, HMT –-….THE MEDIA!
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TRANSPORT PROGRAMME OVERVIEW
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GAMES TRANSPORT: THE CHALLENGE
–Provide safe, secure and reliable transport for all client groups
–Keep London moving and make hosting the Games a positive experience for the whole city
–Leave a legacy and facilitate the regeneration of East London –Achieve maximum value for money and minimise cost
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GAMES TRANSPORT STRATEGY
Prioritising athletes – Getting the Olympic and Paralympic Families to their venues by road on the Olympic Route Network
A public transport Games – 100% spectator use of public transport, walking and cycling facilities
An accessible Games – Making the transport network more accessible to everyone and in good time for the Games A sustainable Games – Use of existing network minimising need for additional Games specific projects and services and integrated plans for Olympic and Paralympic Games
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SUMMER 2012: KEY DATES
13 July Olympic Village Opens
27 July Opening Ceremony
12 August Closing Ceremony
29 August Paralympic Opening Ceremony
9 Sept Paralympic Closing Ceremony
14 Sept Olympic Village Closes
Total Duration 60 days
Arrival & Training Games Time Departure, Arrival & Training Games Time Departure
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OLYMPIC AND PARALYMPIC FAMILY TRANSPORT
– 55,000 Olympic Family and 16,500 Paralympic Family members - Athletes, Officials, Media representatives, VIPs, marketing partners – Safe, secure and reliable service – Olympic Family transported by cars, MPVs and coaches – Aim for journey times of less than 30 minutes wherever possible – Aim to set down Olympic and Paralympic Family personnel as close as possible to the entrance to the venue – Distinct and separate coach transport for athletes, technical officials, accredited media and sponsors
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GAMES TRANSPORT COORDINATION CENTRE
TCC - one facility to co-ordinate all modes of public transport and the Olympic Route Network
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SPECTATOR TRANSPORT: THE OLYMPIC PARK
• Best ever connected Olympic Park
• 10 Tube and rail lines
• Use 3 gateway stations • One train will arrive every 15 seconds • Capacity of 240,000 passengers an hour
• 80% of all spectators for the Park will travel by rail
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WALKING AND CYCLING
– Low cost, healthy, sustainable and efficient mode of transport option for spectators and workforce for Games – Assists with easing public transport overcrowding in peaks during Games – Key element in delivering London 2012 sustainability themes (climate change, healthy living and inclusivity) – London 2012 a great opportunity to boost long term development of walking and quality pedestrian environments in London
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ROUTES AND INFRASTRUCTURE
• Investment in high quality ‘Green’ corridors • Focus on Olympic Park and River Zone venues
• Improvements also being delivered at other London venues and venues outside London • Other existing routes to be promoted for Games
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VENUE TRANSPORT PLANNING
Service Delivery Plans: Rail, bus and coach
Local Transport Policies & Programmes
Olympic Route Network
Parking & Traffic Management
Venue Transport Plans
Venue Overlay design
Active Spectator Programme
IOC IPC LOCOG
Emergenc y Plans
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ACCESSIBLE TRANSPORT STRATEGY
• Promotes an inclusive approach • Games for the Nation • Focus UK wide improvements • Set out the planned, pre 2012 improvements • Develop new ideas for Games time • Games Network of Accessible Transport (GNAT)
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KEY SCHEMES
–Olympic Family Transport –Games-time Operations –Competition Venues & Supporting Events –Surface Transport; Cycling & Walking –Heavy Rail –Stratford Regional Station –Docklands Light Railway
–London Underground
–North London Line –Park & Ride –Javelin –(Orient Way)
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BACKGROUND SCHEMES
Lead British Airports Authority Project Terminal 5 Heathrow Phase 1 Terminal 5 Heathrow Phase 2 Heathrow Express Terminal 5 to London Extension to the Piccadilly underground line to Heathrow Terminal 5 Jubilee line upgrade Northern line upgrade Central line upgrade Underground stations upgrade Victoria line upgrade East London Line Phase 1 CTRL Project Phase 2 Southern Regional trains power upgrade Chiltern Line Asset renewals DLR DLR DLR DLR to London City Airport extension to Woolwich train car upgrade additional platforms at Stratford
London Underground
Heavy rail
Docklands Light Railway (DLR)
Transport for London (TfL)
A13 road works East London Transit Greenwich waterfront
Table 7.2: Spectator transport background schemes
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£5 BILLION BACKGROUND SCHEMES WELL UNDERWAY
• Jubilee Line: new signalling • Northern Line: new signalling • Victoria Line: new trains • East London Line Extension • King’s Cross St Pancras: new station • High Speed 1: new railway
• • • Brussels is 1hr 40 mins from the Olympic Park Paris is 2 hrs 10 mins from the Olympic Park High speed services for Kent
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PROGRAMME MANAGEMENT APPROACH
Support pan-programme intregration & Support pan-programme intregration & transport team client management transport team client management Programme Reporting & Programme Reporting & Measurement & Analysis Measurement & Analysis Programme Assurance and Change Control Programme Assurance and Change Control
Stakeholders Stakeholders
Programme Management Programme Management
Transport delivery partners Transport delivery partners
LOCOG
Tfl, Network Rail, Dft, HA, BAA ODA Transport
Olympic Stakeholders
Operational Schemes
Functional Management Functional Management
Stakeholder Management & Communications Stakeholder Management & Communications Strategic Planning Strategic Planning Olympic Family & Surface Transport Heavy Rail Olympic Family & Surface Transport Heavy Rail
Accountability for success resides with client managers; responsibility for delivery with delivery partners
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TRANSPORT PROGRAMME MANAGEMENT
– Drive Transport programme budget & scope – Assure timely and effective progress reporting – Assure risk and opportunity management
– Provide programme assurance & change control
– Promote improvement to project performance – Support for audits and gateway reviews – Promote excellence and best practices – Cross cutting functions: H&S; sustainability; environment; quality
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Definitions
TRANSPORT PROGRAMME ASSURANCE
ASSURE:
MAINTAIN:
ISO 9001-2000 Certificate ODA Executive Management Board ODA Programme Board Olympic Programme Procurement Review Board Olympic Programme Change Control Board Budget reviews Risk Review Group Risk reviews Olympic Transport Project Board Joint Transport Executive Committee with LOCOG Olympic Transport Rail Steering Group Contract reviews Programme reviews Workstream plans ODA Finance Policy ODA Corporate Plan ODA Business Plan ODA Risk & Audit Plans & Processes Audit Reports & Action Plans ODA Programme Assurance Processes Business Continuity policy
CHANGE:
REVIEW
A record that requirements have been met by which confidence in the output is expressed. Continuing, like for like, status quo, local update, simple, insignificant change. Challenge status-quo (brings significant change)
PMO Review & Challenge
Transport strategy & Demand forecasting Transport Programme Key Milestones Olympic Family & Surface Transport PEP
ODA Procurement Code and Policy ODA Risk Management Strategy & Framework ODA Sustainability Policy
PLAN
ODA Equality and Diversity Policy ODA Communications Strategy & Policies
MAINTAIN
Rail Programme Execution Plan
Strategic Planning PEP PM PEP Programme and Projects Risk Registers Transport SSHEQ Plans
ODA Health & Safety Policy
Change Control
CHANGE
Provide Safe, Secure, Inclusive, Fast, Reliable Transport for Olympic Family & Paralympic Client Groups Provide Frequent, Reliable, Friendly, Inclusive, Accessible, Environmentally-Friendly, Simple Transport for Spectator & Workforce PMO Team
ASSURE
Olympic Transport Plan Transport Business Plan
Scope reviews
Stakeholder & Comms PEP Manage Boundaries & Interfaces
Olympic Transport Surface Steering Group Integrated Transport Planning Forum with LOCOG
Project Progress reviews with Delivery Partners
Transport Programme Management Plan Transport SSHEQ Strategy
QMS Accreditation ISO 9001-2000 Rail Projects Board Review
Senior management review Staff performance and appraisals review
Regeneration of East-London & Leave Positive Legacy
Keep London & UK moving
Assure VFM
Transport Stakeholder Comms Forward Plan
Transport Procurement Strategy
Formal & Informal Management Meetings (ODAT)
Training & Development requirements
Transport Procurement Assurance Transport Risk Management Strategy
Audit Reports Procure & Manage Suppliers Develop and Update Transport Programme and Projects Risk Registers Manage Projects, stakeholders impact Contract Management SSHEQ work
Compliance with ISO Standards
Transport Programme planning
Change Management
Project Management Best Practice Knowledge Management
Monitor Commitments Register Compliance Reports to Funders + Other Government Committees
Develop & manage project funding & budgets
CLM Programme Board Reporting
Programme Progress Dashboard reporting
Audit/Gateway Reviews Maintain Compliance with ODA Legal and Contractual Requirements
Management Information Reports
Programme Assurance Reports
Projects Initiation Processes
Assure
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TRANSPORT RISK MANAGEMENT
Risk assessment offers a view into the future – by taking past & current knowledge & experience, considering the “unknown knowns” and making an informed judgement about uncertainties and risks that could affect the set strategy/objectives/plans
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KEY CHALLENGES THAT BRING RISK
– Maintain strategic direction amidst changing circumstances and challenges (Olympics / high profile / mega projects / heavy scrutiny / compact location / multiple & diverse stakeholders) – – – – – Managing risks between ODAT and stakeholders Diverse nature of projects and optimum project risk Immediacy of delivery risk from some projects Risks and opportunities in relation to operational planning Organisational transition between now (planning) and 2012 (operational) – – Increase focus on Games-time risks as we get closer Prepare for any future unknown unknowns
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SCOPE OF RISK MANAGEMENT COVERED
– – Risks and opportunities in achieving ODA transport
objectives and commitments
Programmes and Projects delivery risks relevant to Transport portfolio – Focusing on financial/funding and time/schedule/deadlines implications – Areas such as Health & Safety; Security etc are major separate specialist pieces of work in their own right
–
Evolving amidst rapid change and complex delivery: as we
get closer to Games-Time, focus will change radically
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RISK – 3 LINES OF DEFENCE
External Stakeholders Risk Management “Lines of Defence”
1st Line
DCMS
2nd Line
3rd Line
Audit Committee
ODA Board
Corporate
Leading Practice
LOCOG ODA EMB
Other external stakeholders – incl GLA, LDA, IOC, Treasury etc.
Risk Review Panel External
Stakeholders Risk Management “Lines of Defence” Risk and Audit
Programme Assurance
Programme
Programme Board
Delivery Partner
Key:
Audit reviews
Tailored to meet specific 2012 needs
Project
Extended Enterprise First Line of defence Second line of defence Third line of defence
Third Party Project teams
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ODA RISK GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK
EMB EXECUTIVE RISK REVIEW
PROGRAMME BOARD
PROGRAMME RISK REVIEW
Risk Management Teams
PROJECT BOARDS
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ODA RISK MANAGEMENT REPORTS
Risk Identification and Documentation
Assessment & Analysis
Corporate / Board level
Programme - wide
Transport Projects and Games-time operational
Monitoring and Communication
Risk Mitigation & Control
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RISK MANAGEMENT CULTURE WITHIN ODA
– RM – part of Corporate governance
– Board, Risk Committee, Audit Committee
Escalate
–
Staff job description – compliance with ODA risk
mgt policy
Mitigate Prioritise
–
Project Sponsors, Managers need to know and manage risks to project objectives
Review
Assess
Record Identify
–
Risk management is integrated to what we do:
–
– –
Corporate and organisational
Programmes and Projects Safety and Security
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WHERE ARE WE NOW IN MANAGING TRANSPORT RISK?
RM Phase Identification / capture Assessment Validation – – Achieved a good view of our quantified risk exposure and contingency requirements towards 2012
Achieved structured reporting
–
Risks and mitigations are actively discussed with risk owners
Prioritisation, escalation, reporting Ownership and management
–
Scope-related risks also included and dealt with to achieve scope clarity and reduce risk exposure
–
2012 Risk management vision forward
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WHERE ARE WE NOW IN MANAGING TRANSPORT RISK?
RM Phase Identification / capture Assessment Validation – Prioritisation, escalation, reporting Ownership and management – Active Risk Management Process: Risk owners – – STRUCTURED RISK REGISTERS Monthly reviews & reports to Senior Management &
Programme Board but new risks captured as and when
known
challenged on progressing mitigation actions
–
Escalation: depending on relevance for Board Management action, overall impact on the programme and
any dependence with other areas
Risk Management used as an active decision-making tool
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RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH
1. Olympic Family Transport 2. Games-time Operations
3. Competition Venues & Supporting
Events 4. Surface Transport; Cycling & Walking 5. Heavy Rail 6. Stratford Regional Station
– Split into 25 workpackages/projects
7. Docklands Light Railway
8. London Underground 9. North London Line 10.Park & Ride 11.Javelin 12.(Orient Way)
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RISK CLASSIFICATION – PRUDENT & PROPORTIONATE APPROACH
1. Projects that are fully funded and/or managed by ODAT
2. Projects for which ODAT might incur risk, albeit very small
3. Projects which are part-funded by ODAT (under Funding Agreement) and for which the funding is capped
These risk classifications are based on the current agreements/contracts between ODAT and its delivery partners and is correct at this point in time. As the project progresses the risk profile will change and projects will move from one class to another.
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EXAMPLE RISK CATEGORIES / THEMES (NOT EXHAUSTIVE & IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER)
Objectives and Strategy Stakeholders Complexity and Programmes interfaces, interdependencies Scope change / creep Specification and design Contracts and procurement Organisation, procedures, processes Economic and Financial Resources Estimating uncertainty Access / possessions Environment, Sustainability Access & Inclusion External Events Security Health & Safety Quality & Performance
Statutory Taxes and Fees
Operational planning and implementation Technical Approvals Insurance Unforeseen ground conditions
Property and Land issues
Consents, Statutory, Regulatory
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QUANTIFIED RISK ANALYSES FOR PROJECTS (ILLUSTRATIVE GRAPHICS – NOT REAL)
Statistical analysis of risk events (likelihood and impact) based on MonteCarlo simulation
Cost exposure range 100% 90% 80%
STM148 Estimating uncertainty STM147 Budget alignment - SRM preliminary costs STM047 Material supply cannot meet delivery demands STM141 Sustainable construction STM006 LOCOG / ODA detailed interface unresolved STM140 Legislation change STM142 Design standards change STM136 Disposal external to Olympic site Key Risks
£ 316M
£ 415M
STM102 Budget alignment - VE
Confidence level
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% £ 300M
£ 350M
£ 400M
£ 450M
£ 500M
project cost should not exceed ... Estimate P80 Project Cost
STM091 Insufficient Transformation Budget 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Correlation with total cost 1
Where P80 is the 80% confidence level that the project cost won’t be exceeded
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CONTINGENCY MANAGEMENT
–Quarterly review of quantified risk assessment for the whole programme –Any change in project contingency is heavily scrutinised and go through a strict change control process –We are focusing on active risk management and prevention as far as possible
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RISK MANAGEMENT: FIT FOR PURPOSE
– Clear and transparent Risk and assurance process and ownership
Practical risk capture
Board
–
–
Live assessment
Effective escalation of key risks Risk and opportunity management fit for purpose and adds value
Programmewide
– –
Operational
Projects
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LESSONS LEARNT SO FAR
• Risk Management is the Conscience of an organisation • People-based approach (top-down and bottom-up)
• Build a culture of risk awareness, prioritisation and
mitigation • Assign risk ownership to the right level of responsibility
• Though necessary, be wary of over-quantifying risk
•Set your risk appetite, focus on risk prevention, control and reduction • Allow for potential unknown unknowns in the assessment – especially amidst complexity, change, time & budget constraint and high profile circumstances
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SUMMARY
• The sheer scale and complexity of the programme is mind-blowing and demands brilliant execution • We are committed to the delivery of the programme and to sound risk governance • The challenge facing Risk Management is immense and akin to that facing the athletes taking part…. to achieve the best • We are prepared for the challenge.
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