LONDON 2012
THE INSPIRATIONAL OLYMPIC & PARALYMPIC GAMES
Managing risks for the London Olympic
Transport programme – A glimpse
Dr Das Mootanah
Olympic Delivery Authority
Presentation to ACCA Network
ODA Transport Risk Management
30 June 2008 30 June 2008
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AGENDA
1. Olympic Programme Overview
2. Transport Programme Overview
3. Transport Risk Management
4. Lessons Learnt so far
5. Questions
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Olympic Programme Overview
The Olympic Games is the The Paralympic Games
world’s biggest event takes place two weeks later
–203 countries –170 countries
–5,000 Olympic Family –1,000 Paralympic Family
–17,800 athletes & team officials –4,000 athletes & team officials
–22,000 media –4,000 media
–7.7 million tickets sold –1.4 million tickets sold
100,000 workforce including volunteers
4 billion global audience
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LONDON 2012 OBJECTIVES
1. To stage an inspirational Olympic Games and Paralympic
Games for the athletes, the Olympic Family and the viewing
public
2. To deliver the Olympic Park and all venues on time, within
agreed budget and to specification, minimising the call on
public funds and providing for a sustainable legacy
3. To maximise the economic, social, health and environmental
benefits of the Games for the UK, particularly through
regeneration and sustainable development in East London
4. To achieve a sustained improvement in UK sport before,
during and after the Games, in both elite performance –
particularly in Olympic and Paralympic sports – and
grassroots participation
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ODA OBJECTIVES
–Create infrastructure and facilities
associated with Games venues to time
and agreed budget in accordance with
the principles of sustainable
development
–Deliver Olympic and Paralympic
venues to time, to design and building
specification and to agreed budget,
providing for agreed legacy use
–Deliver necessary transport
infrastructure for Games, and devise
and implement effective transport plans
which provide for legacy use
–Deliver agreed sustainable legacy
plans for the Olympic Park and all
venues
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OLYMPIC TIMELINE
2006 / 7 TO BEIJING 2008 / 2011 2012
DEMOLISH TESTING &
START UP DIG THE BIG BUILD FINAL
DESIGN PREPARATIONS
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OLYMPIC BUDGET
Base costs: £5,117m
(incl. Site preparation & infrastructure, Venues, Transport, Other Park wide projects, Olympic
Village, International Broadcast Centre / Main Press Centre, Programme Delivery, Tax)
Project Contingency: £973m
ODA Base Budget = £6,090m
ODA Programme Contingency: £968m
Funders’ Group Contingency: £1,041m
Total funding available to the ODA: £8,099m
Other costs and provisions (Non-ODA):
Support for elite & community sport, Paralympics: £388m
Policing & wider security: £600m
Contingency for policing & wider security : £238m
Total: £9,325m
Funded by Lottery, Council Tax, the Mayor, Central Government
Source: NAO Report, June 08
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WHO WE ARE
‘deliver venues, facilities and infrastructure IOC
and transport on time for the London 2012
Olympic Games and Paralympic Games that
are fit-for-purpose and in a way that maximises
Contract holder
the delivery of a sustainable legacy within LOCOG
the available budget’
Olympic Delivery Authority Olympic Act
Land Olympic Park ODA Transport
Delivery Partners:
CLM TfL, NR, TOCs, Local Authorities, BAA,
Highways Agency, Eurostar,
Javelin – CTRL, Rivers Industry
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LEVELS OF SCRUTINY
–DCMS
–National Audit Office – Financial & Value for Money
–Office of Government Commerce
–Commission for Sustainable London
–Funders – GLA, LDA, Lottery, Sport England
–Olympic Family Members – OPRG, LOCOG, IOC, BOA
–Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure
–Parliamentary Committees
–Funders Committee
–Government Departments – DfT, HMT
–-….THE MEDIA!
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TRANSPORT
PROGRAMME
OVERVIEW
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GAMES TRANSPORT:
THE CHALLENGE
–Provide safe, secure and reliable transport
for all client groups
–Keep London moving and make hosting the
Games a positive experience for the whole
city
–Leave a legacy and facilitate the
regeneration of East London
–Achieve maximum value for money and
minimise cost
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GAMES TRANSPORT STRATEGY
Prioritising athletes
– Getting the Olympic and Paralympic
Families to their venues by road on the
Olympic Route Network
A public transport Games
– 100% spectator use of public transport,
walking and cycling facilities
An accessible Games
– Making the transport network more
accessible to everyone and in good time
for the Games
A sustainable Games
– Use of existing network minimising need
for additional Games specific projects and
services and integrated plans for Olympic
and Paralympic Games
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SUMMER 2012: KEY DATES
13 July 27 July 12 August 29 August 9 Sept 14 Sept
Olympic Opening Closing Paralympic Paralympic Olympic
Village Ceremony Ceremony Opening Closing Village
Opens Ceremony Ceremony Closes
Total Duration 60 days
Arrival & Training Games Departure, Arrival Games Departure
Time & Training Time
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OLYMPIC AND PARALYMPIC FAMILY
TRANSPORT
– 55,000 Olympic Family and 16,500
Paralympic Family members - Athletes,
Officials, Media representatives, VIPs,
marketing partners
– Safe, secure and reliable service
– Olympic Family transported by cars,
MPVs and coaches
– Aim for journey times of less than 30
minutes wherever possible
– Aim to set down Olympic and Paralympic
Family personnel as close as possible to
the entrance to the venue
– Distinct and separate coach transport for
athletes, technical officials, accredited
media and sponsors
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GAMES TRANSPORT COORDINATION
CENTRE
TCC - one facility to co-ordinate all modes of public
transport and the Olympic Route Network
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SPECTATOR TRANSPORT: THE OLYMPIC
PARK
• Best ever connected Olympic
Park
• 10 Tube and rail lines
• Use 3 gateway stations
• One train will arrive every 15
seconds
• Capacity of 240,000 passengers
an hour
• 80% of all spectators for the
Park will travel by rail
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WALKING AND CYCLING
– Low cost, healthy, sustainable and
efficient mode of transport option for
spectators and workforce for Games
– Assists with easing public transport
overcrowding in peaks during Games
– Key element in delivering London
2012 sustainability themes (climate
change, healthy living and inclusivity)
– London 2012 a great opportunity to
boost long term development of
walking and quality pedestrian
environments in London
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ROUTES AND INFRASTRUCTURE
• Investment in high quality
‘Green’ corridors
• Focus on Olympic Park
and River Zone venues
• Improvements also being
delivered at other London
venues and venues
outside London
• Other existing routes to be
promoted for Games
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VENUE TRANSPORT PLANNING
Service
Local Delivery Plans:
Transport Rail, bus Olympic
Policies & and coach
Route
Programmes
Network
Parking & Venue
Traffic Venue
Transport Overlay
Management
Plans design
Active
Spectator IOC Emergenc
Programme IPC y Plans
LOCOG
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ACCESSIBLE TRANSPORT STRATEGY
• Promotes an inclusive approach
• Games for the Nation
• Focus UK wide improvements
• Set out the planned, pre 2012 improvements
• Develop new ideas for Games time
• Games Network of Accessible Transport (GNAT)
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KEY SCHEMES
–Olympic Family Transport
–Games-time Operations
–Competition Venues & Supporting Events
–Surface Transport; Cycling & Walking
–Heavy Rail
–Stratford Regional Station
–Docklands Light Railway
–London Underground
–North London Line
–Park & Ride
–Javelin
–(Orient Way)
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BACKGROUND SCHEMES
Lead Project
British Airports Authority Terminal 5 Heathrow Phase 1
Terminal 5 Heathrow Phase 2
Heathrow Express Terminal 5 to London
Extension to the Piccadilly underground line to Heathrow
Terminal 5
London Underground Jubilee line upgrade
Northern line upgrade
Central line upgrade
Underground stations upgrade
Victoria line upgrade
Heavy rail East London Line Phase 1
CTRL Project Phase 2
Southern Regional trains power upgrade
Chiltern Line
Asset renewals
Docklands Light Railway (DLR) DLR to London City Airport
DLR extension to Woolwich
DLR train car upgrade
DLR additional platforms at Stratford
Transport for London (TfL) A13 road works
East London Transit
Greenwich waterfront
Table 7.2: Spectator transport background schemes
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£5 BILLION BACKGROUND SCHEMES WELL UNDERWAY
• Jubilee Line: new signalling
• Northern Line: new signalling
• Victoria Line: new trains
• East London Line Extension
• King’s Cross St Pancras: new station
• High Speed 1: new railway
• Brussels is 1hr 40 mins from the Olympic Park
• Paris is 2 hrs 10 mins from the Olympic Park
• High speed services for Kent
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PROGRAMME MANAGEMENT APPROACH
Support pan-programme intregration &
Support pan-programme intregration & Programme Reporting &
Programme Reporting & Programme Assurance and Change Control
transport team client management Measurement & Analysis Programme Assurance and Change Control
transport team client management Measurement & Analysis
Stakeholders
Stakeholders Programme Management
Programme Management Transport delivery partners
Transport delivery partners
LOCOG Tfl, Network
Rail, Dft, HA,
BAA
ODA
Transport
Olympic Operational
Stakeholders Schemes
Functional Management
Functional Management
Stakeholder Management & Communications
Stakeholder Management & Communications Strategic Planning
Strategic Planning Olympic Family & Surface Transport Heavy Rail
Olympic Family & Surface Transport Heavy Rail
Accountability for success resides with client managers; responsibility
for delivery with delivery partners
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TRANSPORT PROGRAMME MANAGEMENT
– Drive Transport programme budget & scope
– Assure timely and effective progress reporting
– Assure risk and opportunity management
– Provide programme assurance & change control
– Promote improvement to project performance
– Support for audits and gateway reviews
– Promote excellence and best practices
– Cross cutting functions: H&S; sustainability;
environment; quality
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Definitions
ASSURE: A record that requirements have been met
TRANSPORT PROGRAMME ASSURANCE by which confidence in the output is
expressed.
MAINTAIN: Continuing, like for like, status quo, local
update, simple, insignificant change.
ISO 9001-2000 ODA Finance Policy CHANGE: Challenge status-quo (brings significant
Certificate ODA Corporate Plan change)
REVIEW
ODA Business Plan Audit Reports & Action Plans
ODA Executive
ODA Risk & Audit
PLAN
Management Board
Plans & Processes ODA Programme Assurance Business Continuity policy
ODA Programme Board Processes
ODA Procurement Code and
Transport strategy & Policy
Olympic Programme Demand forecasting
Procurement Review Board PMO Review ODA Risk Management Strategy &
Transport Programme Framework
& Challenge
Key Milestones
Olympic Programme Programme reviews ODA Sustainability
Olympic Family & ODA Equality and
Change Control Board Policy
Workstream plans Surface Transport PEP Diversity Policy
Budget reviews
Risk Review Group ODA Health &
Strategic Planning PEP ODA Communications
MAINTAIN
Safety Policy
Risk reviews Rail Strategy & Policies
PM PEP
Programme Execution Plan
Olympic Transport Project
Board
ASSURE
Contract reviews Programme and
Transport
Projects Risk
SSHEQ Plans
Registers
CHANGE
Joint Transport Executive
Committee with LOCOG Change Control
Olympic Transport Plan
Stakeholder & Comms
Olympic Transport Rail
Steering Group Scope reviews
Provide Safe, Secure, Provide Frequent, Reliable, PEP
Transport Business Plan
Inclusive, Fast, Friendly, Inclusive, Accessible, Manage
Reliable Transport for Environmentally-Friendly, Simple Boundaries &
Olympic Transport Surface Interfaces Transport Programme
Steering Group Project Progress reviews Olympic Family & Transport for
Management Plan
with Delivery Partners
Paralympic Client Groups PMO Team
Spectator & Workforce
Integrated Transport QMS Accreditation Transport SSHEQ Strategy
Planning Forum with LOCOG ISO 9001-2000
Rail Projects Board
Review
Regeneration of East-London
Assure VFM Transport Procurement Strategy
Senior management Keep London & UK Transport Stakeholder
review &
moving Comms Forward Plan
Staff performance Leave Positive Legacy
and appraisals review Transport Procurement
Formal & Informal Assurance
Management Meetings (ODAT) Training &
Development
requirements
Transport Risk Management
Audit Strategy
Reports
Procure & Manage Suppliers
Contract SSHEQ work
Develop and Update Management
Transport Manage Projects,
Programme and Projects Change stakeholders
Compliance with Transport impact Project Management
Risk Registers Management
ISO Standards Programme planning Best Practice
Knowledge Management
Programme Progress
Monitor Commitments Develop & Dashboard reporting Audit/Gateway Reviews
Register Compliance CLM
manage project
Programme Board
funding & budgets Maintain
Reporting
Reports to Funders + Other
Compliance with ODA Legal
Government Committees
and Contractual Requirements
Assure
Management Information Programme Assurance Projects Initiation Processes
Reports Reports
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TRANSPORT
RISK
MANAGEMENT
Risk assessment offers a view into
the future – by taking past & current
knowledge & experience,
considering the “unknown knowns”
and making an informed judgement
about uncertainties and risks that
could affect the set
strategy/objectives/plans
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KEY CHALLENGES THAT BRING RISK
– Maintain strategic direction amidst changing circumstances and
challenges (Olympics / high profile / mega projects / heavy scrutiny /
compact location / multiple & diverse stakeholders)
– Managing risks between ODAT and stakeholders
– Diverse nature of projects and optimum project risk
– Immediacy of delivery risk from some projects
– Risks and opportunities in relation to operational planning
– Organisational transition between now (planning) and 2012
(operational)
– Increase focus on Games-time risks as we get closer
– Prepare for any future unknown unknowns
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SCOPE OF RISK MANAGEMENT COVERED
– Risks and opportunities in achieving ODA transport
objectives and commitments
– Programmes and Projects delivery risks relevant to
Transport portfolio
– Focusing on financial/funding and time/schedule/deadlines
implications
– Areas such as Health & Safety; Security etc are major
separate specialist pieces of work in their own right
– Evolving amidst rapid change and complex delivery: as we
get closer to Games-Time, focus will change radically
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RISK – 3 LINES OF DEFENCE
External Risk Management
Stakeholders “Lines of Defence”
1st Line 2nd Line 3rd Line
DCMS
ODA Board Audit Committee
Leading Practice
Corporate
LOCOG
ODA EMB
Other external
stakeholders
– incl GLA, Risk
LDA, IOC,
Treasury etc. External
Review Panel Stakeholders Risk Management
“Lines of Defence” Risk and Audit
Programme
Programme Board
Programme
Assurance
Tailored to meet
Delivery Audit reviews
Partner specific 2012 needs
Key:
Project
Extended Enterprise
First Line of defence
Second line of defence
Third Party
Third line of defence Project teams
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ODA RISK GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK
EMB EXECUTIVE
RISK REVIEW
PROGRAMME BOARD
PROGRAMME RISK REVIEW
Risk Management Teams
PROJECT BOARDS
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ODA RISK MANAGEMENT REPORTS
Risk Identification and Assessment & Analysis
Documentation
Corporate / Board level
Programme - wide
Transport Projects and Games-time operational
Monitoring and Risk Mitigation & Control
Communication
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RISK MANAGEMENT CULTURE WITHIN ODA
– RM – part of Corporate governance
– Board, Risk Committee, Audit Committee Escalate
– Staff job description – compliance with ODA risk Mitigate
mgt policy
Prioritise
– Project Sponsors, Managers need to know and
Review
manage risks to project objectives Assess
Record
– Risk management is integrated to what we do:
– Corporate and organisational
Identify
– Programmes and Projects
– Safety and Security
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WHERE ARE WE NOW IN MANAGING TRANSPORT RISK?
RM Phase – Achieved a good view of our quantified risk exposure
and contingency requirements towards 2012
Identification /
capture
– Achieved structured reporting
Assessment
Validation – Risks and mitigations are actively discussed with risk
owners
Prioritisation,
escalation, – Scope-related risks also included and dealt with to
reporting
achieve scope clarity and reduce risk exposure
Ownership and
management – 2012 Risk management vision forward
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WHERE ARE WE NOW IN MANAGING TRANSPORT RISK?
– STRUCTURED RISK REGISTERS
RM Phase
Identification /
– Monthly reviews & reports to Senior Management &
capture
Programme Board but new risks captured as and when
Assessment
known
Validation
– Active Risk Management Process: Risk owners
challenged on progressing mitigation actions
Prioritisation,
escalation,
reporting – Escalation: depending on relevance for Board
Management action, overall impact on the programme and
Ownership and any dependence with other areas
management
– Risk Management used as an active decision-making tool
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RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH
1. Olympic Family Transport
2. Games-time Operations
3. Competition Venues & Supporting
Events
4. Surface Transport; Cycling & Walking
5. Heavy Rail – Split into 25 work-
6. Stratford Regional Station
7. Docklands Light Railway packages/projects
8. London Underground
9. North London Line
10.Park & Ride
11.Javelin
12.(Orient Way)
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RISK CLASSIFICATION – PRUDENT & PROPORTIONATE APPROACH
1. Projects that are fully funded and/or managed by
ODAT
2. Projects for which ODAT might incur risk, albeit
very small
3. Projects which are part-funded by ODAT (under
Funding Agreement) and for which the funding
is capped
These risk classifications are based on the current agreements/contracts between
ODAT and its delivery partners and is correct at this point in time. As the project
progresses the risk profile will change and projects will move from one class to
another.
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EXAMPLE RISK CATEGORIES / THEMES
(NOT EXHAUSTIVE & IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER)
Objectives and Strategy External Events
Stakeholders
Security
Complexity and Programmes
interfaces, interdependencies Health & Safety
Scope change / creep Quality & Performance
Specification and design
Environment, Sustainability
Contracts and procurement
Organisation, procedures, Access & Inclusion
processes
Statutory Taxes and Fees
Economic and Financial
Resources Operational planning and
Estimating uncertainty implementation
Access / possessions Technical Approvals
Property and Land issues Insurance
Consents, Statutory, Regulatory
Unforeseen ground conditions
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QUANTIFIED RISK ANALYSES FOR PROJECTS
(ILLUSTRATIVE GRAPHICS – NOT REAL)
Statistical analysis of risk events (likelihood and impact) based on Monte-
Carlo simulation
Cost exposure range Key Risks
£ 316M £ 415M
100%
STM102 Budget alignment - VE
90%
STM148 Estimating uncertainty
80%
STM147 Budget alignment - SRM preliminary
70% costs
Confidence level
STM047 Material supply cannot meet delivery
60%
demands
50% STM141 Sustainable construction
40% STM006 LOCOG / ODA detailed interface
unresolved
30%
STM140 Legislation change
20%
STM142 Design standards change
10%
0% STM136 Disposal external to Olympic site
£ 300M £ 350M £ 400M £ 450M £ 500M
STM091 Insufficient Transformation Budget
project cost should not exceed ...
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Estimate P80 Project Cost
Correlation with total cost
Where P80 is the 80% confidence level that the project cost won’t be
exceeded
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CONTINGENCY MANAGEMENT
–Quarterly review of quantified risk
assessment for the whole
programme
–Any change in project contingency
is heavily scrutinised and go through
a strict change control process
–We are focusing on active risk
management and prevention as far
as possible
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RISK MANAGEMENT: FIT FOR PURPOSE
– Clear and transparent
Risk and assurance
process and ownership
Board – Practical risk capture
– Live assessment
Programme- – Effective escalation of key
wide risks
– Risk and opportunity
management fit for
purpose and adds value
Operational Projects
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LESSONS LEARNT SO FAR
• Risk Management is the Conscience of an
organisation
• People-based approach (top-down and bottom-up)
• Build a culture of risk awareness, prioritisation and
mitigation
• Assign risk ownership to the right level of
responsibility
• Though necessary, be wary of over-quantifying risk
•Set your risk appetite, focus on risk prevention,
control and reduction
• Allow for potential unknown unknowns in the
assessment – especially amidst complexity, change,
time & budget constraint and high profile
circumstances
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SUMMARY
• The sheer scale and complexity of the
programme is mind-blowing and
demands brilliant execution
• We are committed to the delivery of the
programme and to sound risk
governance
• The challenge facing Risk Management
is immense and akin to that facing the
athletes taking part…. to achieve the
best
• We are prepared for the challenge.
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