Emergency Management in the st Century Living in the New Normal

Emergency Management in the 21st Century: Living in the New Normal The US, New Zealand and the World February 16, 2005 Changes Over the Last Ten Years • Civil defense to domestic response • Losses continue to grow • We tend to be best prepared for past disasters • 25% of the deaths and 50% of injuries occur in things we don’t call disasters, like fog and lightning • More people die from heat than from earthquakes Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation Professional Changes Over Ten Years • National security to homeland security • Professional specialization in FEMA / EM • Building the profession • Higher education in emergency management – 1 to 120 • Emphasis on hazard mitigation and sustainable development • Preparedness is the foundation of EM Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation Continued Progress • Certifications – CEM®, IAEM • Evolution of standards • CAR • NFPA 1600 • EMAP • Books increasing; journals increasing; need more research • Information flow speeded by internet and advanced technologies Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation More Progress • Virtual operations centers, created by EDS • Emphasis on response has given way to emphasis on preparedness and mitigation • Homeland Security has added prevention • Global outreach to underserved communities, disabled, seniors, minorities, tribes, colleges and universities, schools Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation Current Status • The disaster business keeps booming! • 1990 thru 1999 – FEMA spent $27 billion • 50 times more than 1950 thru 1959 • $10 per person for disaster relief • Insurance losses are running $40 billion per year, five times the 1950’s level • 76% of the trillion dollars of loss over 15 years is weather-related – climate change? Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation 2004’s Worst Natural Disasters • Earthquake / tsunami in Southeast Asia / Eastern Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $600 billion • Florida hurricanes: Charley, Francis, Gaston and “The Gang”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$21 billion • Floods and landslides in the Philippines • Drought in South Africa Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation 2004’s Worst Natural Disasters (continued) • Flood North Island of New Zealand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$200 million; $70 million indemnification • Tropical cyclone in Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$350 million • Floods in Bangladesh, Nepal, and India triggered by monsoon rains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$5 billion • Earthquake in Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$30 million Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation 2004’s Worst Natural Disasters • Floods in Botswana and surrounding countries (continued) • Earthquake in Morocco. . . . . . . . . . . . . .$400 million • Finally, a separate word about the tsunami, which has taken almost 300,000 lives, including those who are still missing: – Need for warning system – US spending $37.5 million to set up a deep-sea warning system around its coastline – International Tsunami Center reports not “if”, but “when” Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation Weather Challenges • Vulnerable coastline • Flood-prone rivers and streams • Busiest tornado corridor in the world – expanding and intensifying • Climate change and biodiversity risks • Other drivers in the disaster boom: – Political generosity – Lax FEMA regulations – Unprecedented development along coasts and in floodplains Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation Mitigation Measures • Restoring forests • Flood and erosion control • Protecting watersheds • Promoting other risk mitigation activities • Eradication of poverty • Environmental conservation • Sustainability development • Wider availability of disaster insurance Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation Structural Challenges in the US • Budget cuts • Demotion of FEMA • Preparedness grant distribution and emergency management in two different DHS organizations • All hazards vs. one hazard • Cutting and capping Emergency Management Performance Grants (EMPG) Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation The Next Ten Years: Crystal Ball Time • More colleges and universities offering certificates and degrees, eventually all will have some courses in emergency management • More online programs; perfect fit for our profession • Great need for faculty Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation The Next Ten Years (continued) • Technology will play an increasing role – simulations for exercises, video conferences • Enterprise Virtual Operations Center (EVOC) developed by EDS in the US for monitoring, response, exercises Virtual Operations Center • More press attention to disasters and emergency personnel; will become issue in campaigns • More job descriptions will include degrees and certifications Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation More Crystal Ball • Standards compliance will be part of funding process • NRP / NIMS / NFPA 1600 / EMAP • New presidential executive order on national preparedness standards – comment period • New intelligence reform law Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation The Future Foreseen • Extension of assessments • Tribal communities • Local governments • Private sector – Sarbanes Oxley and NFPA 1600 • Law suits – not hiring CEM ®, degree holders, and not meeting standards Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation Make a Wish • More funding • Higher salaries • More collaboration • More information sharing • More interoperability • All hazards approach • Becoming the first choice profession for young people Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation Emphasis Always On the Positive Side • More books • More manuals • More case studies • More best practices shared • More lessons learned shared • More chances like today to share challenges and support each other Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation Final Recommendations • • • • Take a global perspective Take a holistic look Adhere to the all hazards approach Accept responsibility for disasters because we can make decisions affecting them, not just Acts of God • Need a country-by-country risk assessment • Need a national database on disasters, so that we know what we are losing… • …and what we are spending Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation Final Recommendations (continued) • Comprehensive education and training from kindergarten through PhD • Share lessons learned and best practices more broadly • Many developing countries may know better how to relate to nature Use or disclosure of data on this sheet is subject to the restriction on the title page of this presentation Kay C. Goss, CEM ® Senior Advisor for Homeland Security, Emergency Management, and Business Continuity Electronic Data Systems Corporation (EDS) Kay.goss@eds.com