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Urban Transport in China - Car Crazy

VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 23

									Urban Transport in China – Car Crazy?




               Lee Schipper
                EMBARQ
     China Environment Forum, WW Center
                 Nov 30, 2006
                                          1
EMBARQ


• A catalyst for socially, financially, and
  environmentally sound solutions to the
  problems of urban mobility




                                              2
           EMBARQ
• Established as a unique center within World Resources Institute in
  2002, EMBARQ is now the hub of a network of centers for
  sustainable transport in developing countries.

• Shell Foundation and Caterpillar Foundation are EMBARQ’s Global
  Strategic Partners, supporting EMBARQ projects worldwide

• Additional EMBARQ supporters include
    –   Hewlett Foundation
    –   Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs
    –   BP
    –   US AID
    –   Asian Development Bank
    –   Energy Foundation
    –   Blue Moon Fund
    –   US Environmental Protection Agency

                                                                    3
              Sustainable Transport:
           These are the Drivers, not CO2
• Economic Sustainability
  – Affordable to users
  – Attractive as business
  – Each mode or fuel bears full social costs
• Social Sustainability
  –   Promotes access for all, not just a few
  –   Builds healthy and solid communities
  –   Allows equal road space distribution for all transport modes
  –   Minimizes travel time
• Environmental Sustainability
  – Minimizes accidents and damage to human health
  – Leaves no burdens for future generations
  – Reduces greenhouse gas emissions – Not Yet

         Governance is The Roof Over these Pillars
                                                                     4
          Integrating Mobility, Security, and Energy
                       WORLD PRIMARY OIL USE, 1965-2004
                                                    (Source: BP)

                      90

                      80
                              US      Other OECD     ROW w/o China        China
                      70
Million Barrels/Day




                      60

                      50

                      40

                      30

                      20

                      10

                       0
                       1965        1970   1975     1980   1985     1990     1995   2000   5
   World Oil: The U.S. and China In Context
                        (All figures in per capita terms)

                  100
                  90
                  80
  US Per Capita
   Value = 100



                  70
                  60
                  50
                  40
                  30
                  20
                  10
                   0
                        GDP      Cars      Oil    Oil for Cars    Total CO2


                          US             China                   ROW


U.S. increment in oil use for cars and light trucks
   2002-2003 was half of China’s total in 2003 6
 Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region

                          2003                               2030

                                                                Other
                           Other
                  India                              India      16%
                           11%     MENA
                   4%                                 6%                MENA
                                    6%
                                                                         8%
      China
       16%

                                            China
                                             19%

     Transition
     economies
       11%
                                     OECD
                                      52%    Transition
                                             economies                  OECD
                                                9%                       42%

                  24 Gt                                         37 Gt

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2005

             Global emissions grow by just over half between now and 2030, with
                  the bulk of the increase coming from developing countries 7
       The Bush Metric of Success–CO2/GDP
          China Has Far Outpaced the US
40%




30%




20%




10%




 0%
           China                US                 Mexico          India


-10%




-20%
                   Changes in Carbon Dioxide/GDP Ratio 1990-2003
                                     Source: IEA
-30%
                   Changes in Total Emissions 1990-2003

-40%               Changes in Per Capita Emissions 1990-2003
                                                                           8
      CO2 Emissions from Road Transport
                    10.00

                               US 60-03        UK 60-03

                               China 71-03     India 71-03

                               Japan 60-03     Mexico 71-03
                     1.00
                               Brazil 71-03    Turkey 60-03
Tonnes CO2/Capita




                               Korea 65-03     Viet Nam 93-03




                     0.10




                                                      Source: IEA

                     0.01
                        $0.1                  $1.0                         $10.0       $100.0
                                                                                   9
                                              GDP/Capita, $1000 USD (2000) PPP
  Access: People in China Move 12-14 Km/day,
        Urban Americans 40-45 km/day

100%
                                                           "other"
90%
                                                           walk
80%

                                                           bicycle
70%


60%                                                        metro


50%                                                        bus/ferry

40%
                                                           taxi

30%
                                                           company
                                                           car
20%
                                                           priv car
10%

                                                           m'cycle
 0%
       1987    2000    1986   2000     1986       2001

       Wuhan   Wuhan   Xian   Xian   Shanghai   Shanghai

                                                                       10
                                                              Motorization in China:
                                                               Déjà vu All Over Again?
1000
Cars and personal light trucks - SUVs/ 1000 people




             100



                                                                                                 United States 1910-2003

                                                                                                 China 1987-2003

                                                                                                 Korea 1970 - 2002
                                          10
                                                                                                 Japan 1965 - 2000

                                                                                                 w. Germany 1960-1995

                                                                                                 Mexico (1986-2000)


                                                     1
                                                     $1,000                  $10,000               Source: EMBARQ       $100,000
                                                                    GDP Capita, 1995 USD (PPP)


      Is rapid urbanization in China and other countries
                                                                                                                            11
         putting cities and cars on a collision course?
           Rapid Motorization in China
 http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/eap/eap.nsf/Attachments/background+2/$File/China_Motorization.pdf

• The Growth of the Automobile Industry
    – Pillar of national economy – or another battering ram?
    – Popularity – increase in demand and foreign investment
    – Low cost and high cost models, imports
• Historic Trends and Future Projections
    – Automobile production from 509,000 in 1990 to 4.4 million in 2004
    – China’s “car” stock from well under million in 1992 to 12 million in 2003
    – Increasing contributor to air pollution, congestion, traffic fatalities
• New Reality – “The Car is Out of the Bag”
    – New “Car” Fuel Economy Standards ~ 30 MPG (US effectively 24 MPG)
    – Emission and fuel quality standards catching up to US, Europe




                                                                                            12
       1970s rural vehicle                                2002 Buick Van
Cars and Urban Transport in China:
  Symbol for Much of the World?
 •   Congestion: Cars and Other Traffic
     •   Buses and people stuck in traffic
     •   Building more roads makes problem worse
     •   Tough policies called for – by whom?
 •   Air Pollution: Too Many Vehicles
     •   Enough old smokers to ruin air
     •   New fuels, vehicles improving
     •   Emissions from cars could offset
         improvements
 •   Traffic Safety: People First
     •   Walkers, cyclists main victims
     •   Too many kinds of traffic in same place,
         unequal road space distribution
     •   More cars and speed will kill more people


                                                     13
    EMBARQ’s Scenarios for China
•   Illustrate and Quantify a World We Can’t See.. Yet
      – Reasonable estimates for “present values”
      – Growth based on nearby example -- Korea
      – Convergence with many other studies in the base case
•   Quantitative Assumption-Driven Outputs
      – Vehicles, vehicle distances, fuel consumption
      – Impacts of alternative fuels
      – Total CO2 emissions
•   Qualitative Results
      – Flesh and bones on the base case
      – Illustration of impact of “fuel efficiency” on total fuel use
      – Illustration of how a “livable cities” scenario might play out


                                                                         14
    EMBARQ’s Scenarios for China
•   Base Case – China has Korean car/GDP ratio in 2020
      – 120-160 million cars, 12,000 km/car
      – 8-8.5 L/100 km if no new measures
      – Closer to 2 mn bbl/day oil in 2020
•   Oil Saving Scenario – 40% as much oil, some CNG
      – Japanese/Euro level of fuel prices
      – 110-130 million cars, but less driving/car
      – Fuel economy standards, some hybrids and CNG
•   Integrated Transport - Livable cities with good transport
      – Much lower car ownership and use– avoiding the plague
      – Very small cars (incl. slow electrics, hybrids) to avoid space and
        congestion problems in cities
      – Serious BRT, Metro, car-use restraint, land-use planning – avoid
        Mexico
                                                                     15
                                China’s New-Car Fuel Economy
                                Standards: A Start
                                                                                                   Weight-class based
                      40
                                                                                                      •   Car of given weight cannot use
                                                                                                          more than a given fuel use/km by
                      35
                                                                                                          tests
                                                                                                      •
CAFE-equivalent MPG




                                                                                                          Will probably impact SUVs
                      30                                                             Phase I
                                                                                                          significantly
                                                                                     Phase II

                      25
                                                                                                   Overall Impact Uncertain
                                                                                                      •   20-30% impact in each class
                      20                                                                              •   Will keep cars from becoming
                                                                                                          guzzlers
                      15                                                                              •   Will not prevent larger market
                       1500   2000   2500   3000        3500        4000   4500   5000      5500
                                              Vehicle Test Weight (lbs)                                   shares of heavy, fuel intensive cars
                                                                                                   Technology not the problem
                                                                                                      •   Key is car size, power, utilization
                                                                                                      •   Manufacturers can choose techs.
                                                                                                                                          16
                                                                                                      •   Fuel taxes, externalities next?
             Alternative Fuels or Fools?
              Tough Choices for China
• Ethanol and other “Biofuels”
  – Modest experience, but high costs
  – Issue of land, water, pollution – what’s new here?
  – Scaling up may just be unreasonable
• Fossil Alternatives
  – Lots of LPG and CNG, but these not real alternatives
  – Gas to liquids, but where’s the gas?
  – Coal to liquids – methanol or synthetic liquids?
• A Third Way? Coal and Electrification?
  – Start with hybrids, battery electrics?
  – Coal to hydrogen/fuel cells with sequestration?
  – Electric drive now for most city vehicles??
      Key Element – Fuel and Externality Pricing           17
Better Urban Transport: No Choice!




                                     18
                                                       The Sustainability Challenge:
                                                      Cars and CO2 Emissions in 2020
                                                                                                         Electricity, as Primary Energy      120
Energy Use for Cars, by source, MTOE




                                                                                                                                                   Total Carbon Emissions (Mn Tonnes)
                                                100                                                      CNG
                                                                                                                                             100
                                                                                                         Oil in Hybrids
                                                80                                                                                           80
                                                                                                         Oil in Conventional Gasoline Cars

                                                60                                                                                           60
                                                                                                                CO2 Emissions

                                                40                                                                                           40


                                                20                                                                                           20


                                                 0                                                                                           0
                                                        d



                                                              10



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                                                 Sustainable Urban Mobility Saves Cities, Fuel, and
                                                                                                                                             19
                                                      Above all, Greenhouse Gas Emissions
                   GHG In China
            Not an Crucial Policy Driver:
• Little Concrete Action on GHG from Transport
  – Wasted fuel, extra air pollution from bad traffic
  – Less than 15% of urban trips in cars, yet cities stuffed
  – Coal for oil could become China’s GHG nightmare
• Some Motion on Fuel Quality and Fuel Economy
  – Increased stringency on fuel quality and emissions
  – China fuel economy standards, real concern about oil
  – Moves on fuel taxes likely next step -- revenue
• Lip Service to the Real Threat – Urban Immobility
  – More vehicle use, congestion, accidents
  – Higher health and accident risks
  – Policy changes needed soon
                                                               20
         Numbers of cars, their Size, Use is Key
    Transport Projects and CO2 Counting:
    Difficult Bean Counting for China
•    Rush to Sell “CO2 Avoided” in Developing Projects
       – Both fuels/vehicles and traffic changes (like BRT)
       – Most projects are small, changes within noise
       – Very difficult to measure or model changes
•    Various Mechanisms – in Order of Difficulty
       – Mayors make feel-good pledges, companies buy offsets
       – Actions like US Asia/Pacific Consortium – mostly hot air
       – Clean Development Mechanism: Tiny compared to the
         problem
•    The Challenge for China – Finding “Negacarbon”
       – Verification becomes a “less than otherwise” prospect
       – Overall growth swamps projects
       – Self interest – healthy cities, oil imports -- the real drivers

                                                                           21
                    Conclusions:
              Will China Decarbonize?
• Urban Transport Solutions is the Umbrella
  – Make room for 300 million more urbanites – land use planning
  – Scale up of bus rapid transit
  – Next steps – restraints on car use (congestion pricing?)
• Clean Air Means Fewer Kilometers
  – Fuel economy standards a valuable first step
  – Real urban transport – not just token BRT -- reform next
  – Next steps – car restraints, protection for NMT

• Fuel Economy and Alternative Fuels
  – Fuel economy is necessary but not sufficient
  – Alternative fuels prospects grim – competition for land
  – Main threat/hope – coal/decarbonized hydrogen?
      Avoiding the Multiple Problems of Too Many Cars
                                                        22
   Is Much Easier than Mitigating them when its too late!
  Lee Schipper
schipper@wri.org




  www.embarq.wri.org




                       23

								
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