REO_Renewable_Energy_Optimization.ppt - NREL

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REO_Renewable_Energy_Optimization.ppt - NREL Powered By Docstoc
					Renewable Energy Optimization
           (REO)

              Andy Walker
           Principal Engineer
 National Renewable Energy Laboratory
         Andy.Walker@nrel.gov
             (303) 384 7531
    Renewable Energy Technologies
  Photovoltaics          Wind Power            Solar Water Heating




Solar Vent Air Preheat   Concentrating Solar          Biomass Heat/Power
                           Heat/Power




Daylighting
                          Ground Source Heat       Landfill Gas
                             Pump


                                                                           2
Best Mix of Renewable Energy
Technologies Depends on:
• Renewable Energy Resources
• Technology Characterization
   – Cost ($/kW installed, O&M Cost)
   – Performance (efficiency)
• State, Utility and Federal Incentives
• Economic Parameters
   – Discount rates
   – Fuel Escalation Rates
• Environmental Goals and Mandates        3
            Optimization Procedure

Optimization

Life Cycle Cost

Dispatch Algorithm

PV     Wind       SVP    SWH      CSP         Biomass   Daylighting

 Geographical Information System (GIS) Data

Site Data

Incentive Data from DSIREUSA.ORG

Technology Characteristics.
                                                                      4
                 Site Information

•   Building name
•   Location
•   Square Footage
•   Number of Floors
•   Use and cost of utilities
•   Ventilation Rates
•   Lighting Levels
•   Hot Water Use


                                    5
        Renewable Energy Resources
     Geographical Information System (GIS)
                    Datasets
•   NREL Datasets:
     – solar radiation 10x10 km grid
          • Horizontal, South-facing vertical, tilt=latitude
     – Wind Energy 200mx1000m grid
     – Biomass Resources
     – Illuminance for Daylighting
     – Temperature and Heating Degree Days
•   Purchased Datasets
     – utility rates (wholesale/retail) for each service territory and customer
       class (residential, industrial, commercial) (Platts)
     – State and utility incentives and utility policy (from www.DSIREUSA.org)
     – City Cost Adjustments (RS Means & Co.)
•   Location Independent
     – Installed Hardware Costs from NREL technology databook
     – Economic Parameters (discount rate, inflation rate)
                                                                         6
     Example of NREL GIS Data
Wind Energy in vicinity of Fairfield CA




                                          7
                          Technology Characteristics
                                Wind Power
Tower Height                   2.5   times blade length, m                               8,000

Wind Shear Exponent         0.115                                                        7,000
acres per MW                    60
                                                                                         6,000
Wind Turbine Efficiency      28%




                                                                 Wind Project Cost ($)
                                                                                                        y = 10605x -0.2182
Wind Speed Turbine Rated at     15   m/s                                                 5,000
                                                                                                          R2 = 0.9506
Capital Cost             $10,605     $/kW                                                4,000
                          -0.2182
                                                                                         3,000
O&M Cost                       7.9   $/year/kW
                                                                                         2,000
Minimum Capital Cost         2000 $/kW
                                                                                         1,000
Maximum Capital Cost        11000 $/kW          Characteristics of Wind Power Technology
                                                                                            0
                       Wind Turbine Efficiency                         0         500       35%
                                                                                             1000         1500               2000       2500
                       Capital Cost                                                        Wind $/m2 swept
                                                                                        $1,528Project Size (kW) area
                       O&M Cost                                                              7.9 $/year/kW
                       Power/Area                                                           0.46 kW/m2
                       Capital Cost                                                        3300 $/kW
                       Wind cost and performance data from “Forces Behind Wind Power.” Louise Guey-Lee
                       http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/rea_issues/wind.html, 2/2001.

                       PG&E Available Funding and Program Statistics (updated 06/05/07)                                             8
                       http://www.pge.com/suppliers_purchasing/new_generator/incentive/available_funding_and_pro
                       gram_statistics.html
How RE technologies fit together




                                   9
        Life Cycle Cost Analysis

• Sum of 40 years of cash flows
   – Initial costs
       • Minus any rebates, tax credits, etc.
   – Electric, Gas, and Biomass Fuel Costs
       • Escalated at 2.6% per year
   – Operation and Maintenance Costs
       • Escalated at 2% per year
   – Production Incentives
   – Accelerated Depreciation
• Future costs are discounted to present value based
  on discount rate
                                                       10
Optimization   Determine the least cost
 Problem       combination of renewable
               energy technologies for a
               facility

               Objective: Minimize Life Cycle
                   Cost ($)
               Variables: Size of Each
                   Technology (kW of PV, kW of
                   wind, etc)
               Constraints: such as
               15% of energy from renewables
               100% energy from renewables
               $140M investment limit
               14 acre land area limit   11
Comparison of TEAM REO and Site Visit Reports for DOE Sites




                                                              12
       Compare Life-Cycle Cost Estimate of
          REO with Hourly Simulation
                 Hourly Simulation       REO             $10,000,000
CO Commercial            $655,076            $614,862
CO Industrial          $5,158,624          $5,870,856
CO Residential            $62,117             $49,463
WA Commercial            $460,039            $568,455
WA Industrial          $3,149,595          $4,533,277     $1,000,000
WA Residential            $53,587             $62,304
AZ Commercial            $555,003            $522,448
AZ Industrial          $4,469,720          $4,891,129
AZ Residential            $53,567             $41,256
                                                           $100,000




                                                            $10,000
                                                                 $10,000   $100,000   $1,000,000     $10,000,000


   Comparison of Annual Average and Hourly Simulation in Renewable Energy Technology System Sizing
   Christine L. Lee, University of Colorado at Boulder, 2009

                                                                                                     13
        Examples of Renewable Energy
        Optimization (REO) Analysis
•   Frito Lay North America plants (7)     •   Presidio of San Francisco
•   National Zoo, DC                       •   Shoshone National Forest
•   Town of Greensburg, KS                 •   PACOM Hawaii: Pearl Harbor; Hickam
•   Anheuser Busch facilities (62)             Airfield; Schofield Barracks; Wheeler;
                                               Kaneohe Bay; Camp Smith; Fort Shafte
•   High School in Sun Valley, ID              Bellows
•   San Nicolas Island, CA                 •   Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative: Haleakal
•   DOE Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, NM        NP; Volcanoes NP (Pending: Kaluapapa
                                               NP; 3 Kona Coast Parks)
•   Eight Agricultural Research Stations in•   Air Force: Dover DE; Charleston SC;
    TX                                         McDill FL
•   31 DOE Laboratories                    •   E&J Gallo (3 facilities)
•   85 Air Force Bases
•   121 GSA Land Ports of Entry
•   32 DHS Land Ports of Entry
•   3 USCG Bases

                                                                            14
   Example: Town on Greensburg KS

  Results of Renewable Energy Optimization:
               Technology Sizes

                                                  Solar                 Solar                                   Daylighting      Daylighting
                            Wind      Solar Vent Water       Solar      Thermal                     Biomass     Office Utility   Warehouse
              Photovoltaics Capacity Preheat Heating Thermal Electric Biomass Boiler Cogeneration Skylight/Floor                 Skylight/Floor
              Size (kW)     (kW)      Area (ft2) Area (ft2) Area (ft2) (kW)        Size (M Btu/h) Size (kW)     Area Ratio       Area Ratio
Buildings                10         0     15258       29,179          0          0                0           0         3.968%             3.036%
Central Plant             0       957           0          0       0.00       0.00             1.34         101         0.000%             0.000%




                                                                                                                                   15
Example: Town on Greensburg KS
Annual Energy from Each Technology
          (with Basecase)
                                 Electric (Mbtu)        Natural Gas (Mbtu)    Other Fuel (Mbtu)
                                 Photovoltaics (Mbtu)   Wind (Mbtu)           Solar Vent Preheat (Mbtu)
                                 Solar Water Heating    Solar Themal (Mbtu)   Biomass (Mbtu)
                                 Daylighting (Mbtu)

                        120000
 Annual Energy (Mbtu)




                        100000

                         80000

                         60000

                         40000

                         20000

                             0




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                                                                                                     16
Example: Town on Greensburg KS
          Initial Costs for Each Technology
                                                                                   Solar
                                                      Solar Vent    Solar Water    Thermal       Biomass      Daylighting
                      PV Initial Cost Wind Initial    Preheat Cost Heating Cost Cost             Cost         Cost
                      w/incentives Cost w/            w/incentives w/incentives    w/incentives w/incentives w/incentives Total Initial Cost
                      ($)             incentives ($) ($)            ($)            ($)           ($)          ($)            ($)
Builidng Measures            $59,216               $0     $305,167      $1,491,055            $0           $0      $388,709      $2,244,146
Central Plant                 $1,238     $1,888,910              $0             $0            $0 $1,135,832               $0     $3,025,979
Total                        $60,453     $1,888,910       $305,167      $1,491,055            $0 $1,135,832        $388,709      $5,270,126



                                       $3,500,000
                                       $3,000,000                                       Daylighting Cost
                                                                                        w/incentives ($)
                                       $2,500,000
                    Initial Cost ($)




                                                                                        Biomass Cost w/incentives
                                       $2,000,000                                       ($)
                                                                                        Solar Thermal Cost
                                       $1,500,000                                       w/incentives ($)
                                       $1,000,000                                       Solar Water Heating Cost
                                                                                        w/incentives ($)
                                        $500,000                                        Solar Vent Preheat Cost
                                              $0                                        w/incentives ($)
                                                                                        Wind Initial Cost w/
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                                                                                        incentives ($)
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                                                                                                                                17
                                               ilid
                                             Bu
Example: Town on Greensburg KS
     Life Cycle Cost of Renewable Energy
            Case versus BaseCase
                    Basecase
                    Life Cycle    RE Case Life                                  Initial Cost      O&M Cost            Biomass Fuel Cost   Gas Cost     Electric Cost
         Name       Cost ($)      Cycle Cost ($)
Initial Cost                 $0         $5,178,576                         $30,000,000
O&M Cost                     $0          $689,759




                                                     Life Cycle Cost ($)
Biomass Fuel Cost            $0          $575,533                          $25,000,000
Gas Cost             $9,579,065         $6,766,870
Electric Cost       $15,882,976         $9,690,919
Total               $25,462,040       $22,901,657
                                                                           $20,000,000
                                                                           $15,000,000
                                                                           $10,000,000
                                                                            $5,000,000
                                                                                     $0




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                                                                                                                                                                       18
                            Photovoltaics
                           not cost effective
                      demonstration on school only
                                                                                                                    PV Annual
                                                                                                                      Utility
                                             PV Initial Cost    Net       Avoided      PV Annual                      Cost        PV Annual
                            Photovoltaics     w/incentives Metering         Cost     Energy Delivery   Capacity      Savings      O&M Cost
       Building Name          Size (kW)            ($)       up to (kW)   ($/kwh)      (kWh/year)      Factor ()       ($)         ($/year)
Courthouse                               0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Library                                  0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
sheriff                                  0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
County Health Dept                       0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
County Extension Office                  0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Hospital                                 0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Fairgrounds bldgs                        0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Museum                                   0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
City Hall                                0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Fire/Police                              0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
High school                             10         $59,216          100        0.03           14615         16.7%      $1,315             $88
Elem/Middle School                       0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Gym and field bldgs                      0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Post Office                              0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
USDA Service Center                      0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Kansas State Hwy Office                  0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
USDA Housing Office                      0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Mental Health Center                     0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Twilight Theater                         0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Assisted Living Residence                0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Senior Citizen housing                   0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Residential                              0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0             $0
Commercial                               0               $0         100        0.03                0         0.0%            $0    19       $0
Sum of Building Measures                10         $59,216                         0          14615                    $1,315             $88
Central Plant                            0               $0         100            0               0        0.0%             $0             $0
                           Wind Energy



                                        Wind Annual                            Wind         Wind
                                          Energy                    Wind      Annual      Payback
                                          Delivery      Capacity Annual Cost O&M Cost      Period
     Building Name   Wind Capacity (kW) (kWh/year)     Factor (%) Savings ($) ($/year)     (years)
Central Plant                       957    2,533,894       30.23%   $276,194     $7,560          7.0




                                                                                           20
Solar Ventilation Air Preheating
                                                                                                       Solar Vent
                                                                                        Solar Vent      Preheat
                               SVP       Solar Vent      Annual Gas   Annual Utility   Preheat Cost     Payback
                            Ventilation Preheat Area       Savings    Cost Savings     w/incentives      Period
       Building Name        Rate (CFM)      (ft2)       (therms/year)   ($/year)            ($)          (years)
Courthouse                         2,880       720.0            1,590       $1,288          $10,080             7.8
Library                              505       126.3              279        $226            $1,769             7.8
sheriff                              264         66.0             146        $118               $924            7.8
County Health Dept                   204         51.0             113          $91              $714            7.8
County Extension Office              156         39.0              86          $70              $546            7.8
Hospital                          10,800     2,700.0            5,961       $4,828          $37,800             7.8
Fairgrounds bldgs                  2,100          0.0               0            $0               $0     #DIV/0!
Museum                             1,200       300.0              662        $536            $4,200             7.8
City Hall                            324         81.0             179        $145            $1,134             7.8
Fire/Police                          420       105.0              232        $188            $1,470             7.8
High school                        9,600     2,400.0            5,299       $4,292          $33,600             7.8
Elem/Middle School                 5,880     1,470.0            3,245       $2,629          $20,580             7.8
Gym and field bldgs                1,920       480.0            1,060        $858            $6,720             7.8
Post Office                          240         60.0             132        $107               $840            7.8
USDA Service Center                  240         60.0             132        $107               $840            7.8
Kansas State Hwy Office              240         60.0             132        $107               $840            7.8
USDA Housing Office                  240         60.0             132        $107               $840            7.8
Mental Health Center               1,320       330.0              729        $590            $4,620             7.8
Twilight Theater                   1,080          0.0               0            $0               $0     #DIV/0!
Assisted Living Residence          2,520       630.0            1,391       $1,127           $8,820             7.8
Senior Citizen housing            13,080     3,270.0            7,220       $5,848          $45,780             7.8
Residential                     116,220           0.0               0            $0               $0     #DIV/0!
Commercial                         9,000     2,250.0            4,968       $4,024          $31,500             7.8
Sum of Building Measures        180,433     15,258.3           33,688      $27,287         $213,617

                                                                                                                      21
                       Solar Water Heating
                                                         Solar Water                             Solar Water
                                           Solar Water    Heating      Solar Water                Heating
                          Solar Water      Heating Gas Annual Utility Heating Cost Solar Water    Payback
                          Heating Area       Savings    Cost Savings w/incentives Heating O&M      Period
       Building Name          (ft2)       (therms/year)    ($/year)        ($)     Cost ($/year)   (years)
Courthouse                            0              0              $0          $0           $0    #DIV/0!
Library                               0              0              $0          $0           $0    #DIV/0!
sheriff                              45            134           $109       $2,280          $16         24.7
County Health Dept                   34            104            $84       $1,762          $13         24.7
County Extension Office              26             79            $64       $1,347          $10         24.7
Hospital                          1,825          5,492         $4,449      $93,262         $666         24.7
Fairgrounds bldgs                     0              0              $0          $0           $0    #DIV/0!
Museum                                0              0              $0          $0           $0    #DIV/0!
City Hall                            55            165           $133       $2,798          $20         24.7
Fire/Police                          71            214           $173       $3,627          $26         24.7
High school                       1,622          4,882         $3,954      $82,900         $592         24.7
Elem/Middle School                  994          2,990         $2,422      $50,776         $363         24.7
Gym and field bldgs                 324            976           $791      $16,580         $118         24.7
Post Office                          41            122            $99       $2,072          $15         24.7
USDA Service Center                  41            122            $99       $2,072          $15         24.7
Kansas State Hwy Office              41            122            $99       $2,072          $15         24.7
USDA Housing Office                  41            122            $99       $2,072          $15         24.7
Mental Health Center                223            671           $544      $11,399          $81         24.7
Twilight Theater                      0              0              $0          $0           $0    #DIV/0!
Assisted Living Residence           426          1,282         $1,038      $21,761         $155         24.7
Senior Citizen housing            2,210          6,652         $5,388     $112,951         $807         24.7
Residential                     19,640          59,102        $47,873   $1,003,604       $7,169         24.7
Commercial                        1,521          4,577         $3,707      $77,718         $555         24.7
Sum of Building Measures        29,179          87,808        $71,125   $1,491,055     $10,650
                                                                                                               22
                                             Biomass Energy


                                                                        Biomass                    Biomass
                       Biomass          Biomass       Biomass Gas        Electric     Biomass    Annual Utility   Tons of
                     Boiler Size (M   Cogeneration       Savings         Delivery     Capacity   Cost Savings      Fuel     per ton fuel Biomass Cost Biomass O&M
     Building Name       Btu/h)        Size (kW)      (therms/year)    (kWh/year)      Factor      ($/year)        Used     cost ($/ton) w/incentives ($) Cost($/year)
Central Plant                     1             101           78,769        754,248        85.0%     $139,228       1,330         $24.08      $1,135,832       $20,101




                                                                                                                                                    23
                                                  Daylighting
                           Daylighting    Daylighting                                                           Daylighting
                           Office Utility Warehouse                          Annual Electric   Annual Natural       Cost         Daylighting      Daylighting
                          Skylight/Floor Skylight/Floor Total Skylight Area      Savings        Gas Savings     w/incentives    Annual Cost     Payback Period
       Building Name        Area Ratio    Area Ratio           (ft2)           (kWh/year)       (therms/year)        ($)       Savings ($/year)     (years)
Courthouse                           2.3%          3.4%                473.4       37,418.2             (272.1)      $16,634            $3,147              5.3
Library                              4.6%          3.5%                137.2         5,243.8             (78.9)       $4,271              $408             10.5
sheriff                              4.8%          3.6%                 73.3         2,737.4             (42.2)       $2,273              $212             10.7
County Health Dept                   4.8%          3.6%                 57.0         2,114.8             (32.8)       $1,765              $164             10.8
County Extension Office              4.8%          3.6%                 43.8         1,616.9             (25.2)       $1,355              $125             10.8
Hospital                             4.8%          3.6%              3,031.0      111,942.4           (1,742.6)      $93,776            $8,663             10.8
Fairgrounds bldgs                    3.8%          3.1%                481.5       21,907.8             (276.8)      $15,536            $1,747              8.9
Museum                               4.3%          3.3%                303.7       12,481.4             (174.6)       $9,592              $982              9.8
City Hall                            4.7%          3.6%                 89.5         3,360.2             (51.5)       $2,777              $261             10.7
Fire/Police                          4.7%          3.5%                114.9         4,357.1             (66.1)       $3,574              $339             10.6
High school                          4.7%          3.5%              2,624.0       99,596.2           (1,508.6)      $81,600            $7,742             10.5
Elem/Middle School                   4.7%          3.5%              1,607.2       61,002.7             (924.0)      $49,980            $4,742             10.5
Gym and field bldgs                  3.9%          3.1%                449.3       20,018.0             (258.3)      $14,433            $1,592              9.1
Post Office                          4.8%          3.6%                 66.8         2,488.3             (38.4)       $2,071              $193             10.7
USDA Service Center                  4.8%          3.6%                 66.8         2,488.3             (38.4)       $2,071              $193             10.7
Kansas State Hwy Office              4.8%          3.6%                 66.8         2,488.3             (38.4)       $2,071              $193             10.7
USDA Housing Office                  4.8%          3.6%                 66.8         2,488.3             (38.4)       $2,071              $193             10.7
Mental Health Center                 4.2%          3.3%                329.8       13,735.0             (189.6)      $10,446            $1,083              9.6
Twilight Theater                     4.3%          3.3%                276.7       11,228.8             (159.1)       $8,718              $882              9.9
Assisted Living Residence            3.6%          2.9%                549.8       26,326.0             (316.1)      $17,944            $2,113              8.5
Senior Citizen housing               0.0%          0.0%                  0.0             0.0               0.0            $0                $0      #DIV/0!
Residential                          0.0%          0.0%                  0.0             0.0               0.0            $0                $0      #DIV/0!
Commercial                           3.0%          1.1%              1,230.1       94,981.1             (707.2)      $45,753            $7,975              5.7
Sum of Building Measures             4.0%          3.0%            12,139.5       540,020.9           (6,979.2)     $388,709           $42,949



                                                                                                                                              24
   Example: Frito Lay North America
Minimum Life Cycle Cost (no constraints)
                        Electric (Mbtu)        Natural Gas (Mbtu)   Other Fuel (Mbtu)
                        Photovoltaics (Mbtu)   Wind (Mbtu)          Solar Vent Preheat (Mbtu)
                        Solar Themal (Mbtu)    Biomass (Mbtu)       Daylighting (Mbtu)

                       1200000
Annual Energy (Mbtu)




                       1000000
                        800000
                        600000
                        400000
                        200000
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    Frito Lay North America
Solar Thermal at Sunchips Plant
               Modesto CA




                                  26
     Example: Frito Lay North America
Minimum Life Cycle Cost (Net Zero constraint)
                        Electric (Mbtu)        Natural Gas (Mbtu)   Other Fuel (Mbtu)
                        Photovoltaics (Mbtu)   Wind (Mbtu)          Solar Vent Preheat (Mbtu)
                        Solar Themal (Mbtu)    Biomass (Mbtu)       Daylighting (Mbtu)

                       1200000
Annual Energy (Mbtu)




                       1000000
                        800000
                        600000
                        400000
                        200000
                              0
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                                                                                                27
           Example: Frito Lay Optimization
           for Seven Manufacturing Plants
                 Constraint: Net Zero

                                                                                                  Daylighting         Daylighting
                               Wind        Solar Vent Solar           Biomass       Biomass       Office Utility      Warehouse
             Photovoltaics     Capacity    Preheat       Thermal      Boiler Size Cogeneration Skylight/Floor         Skylight/Floor
             Size (kW)         (kW)        Area (ft2)    Area (ft2)   (M Btu/h)     Size (kW)     Area Ratio          Area Ratio
Plant #1                 200           491          5456       509196            19          1669             2.2%              2.1%
Plant #2                   0          6187          8953       391987            87          3097             3.8%              2.0%
Plant #3                   0          3107        13098        469621            44          3180             4.9%              3.6%
Plant #4               1011           1000        10213      1360535             78          4108             3.4%              1.8%
Plant #5               1003            998        10327        704140            44          3327             6.1%              3.4%
Plant #6                   0             0        10322      1529609             74          6020               err               err
Plant #7                   0          3699        10802        673761            43          2193             3.3%              3.7%




                                                                                                                              28
           Example: Frito Lay Net Zero
Initial Costs for Each Technology at Each Plant
                   PV Initial Cost w/incentives ($)              Wind Initial Cost w/ incentives ($)
                   Solar Vent Preheat Cost w/incentives ($)      Solar Thermal Cost w/incentives ($)
                   Biomass Cost w/incentives ($)                 Daylighting Cost w/incentives ($)

                   $100,000,000
                    $90,000,000
                    $80,000,000
Initial Cost ($)




                    $70,000,000
                    $60,000,000
                    $50,000,000
                    $40,000,000
                    $30,000,000
                    $20,000,000
                    $10,000,000
                             $0
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31
                   REO Example: Net Zero Zoo
National Zoological Park (NZP) and Conservation Research Center
                     (CRC), Washington DC

                                                160000

                                                140000

                                                120000                                   Daylighting (Mbtu)



                         Annual Energy (Mbtu)
                                                                                         Biomass (Mbtu)
                                                100000
                                                                                         Solar Themal (Mbtu)
                                                 80000                                   Solar Water Heating
                                                                                         Solar Vent Preheat (Mbtu)
                                                 60000
                                                                                         Wind (Mbtu)
                                                 40000                                   Photovoltaics (Mbtu)
                                                                                         Other Fuel (Mbtu)
                                                 20000
                                                                                         Natural Gas (Mbtu)
                                                     0                                   Electric (Mbtu)




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                                                                    Cancels
                                                                    remaining
            Zoo Entrance                                            gas use at                     32
            Tai Shan the Panda                                      NZP
                                    DOE Savannah River Site
                       6,000,000

                       5,000,000
                                                                                 Geothermal Heat Pump
                                                                                 Landfill Gas (Mbtu)
Annual Energy (Mbtu)




                       4,000,000
                                                                                 Daylighting (Mbtu)
                                                                                 Anaerobic Digester (Mbtu)
                       3,000,000                                                 Biomass Gasifier (Mbtu)
                                                                                 Solar Thermal (Mbtu)
                       2,000,000                                                 Solar Water Heating
                                                                                 Solar Vent Preheat (Mbtu)
                       1,000,000                                                 Wind (Mbtu)
                                                                                 Photovoltaics (Mbtu)
                               0                                                 Coal (Mbtu)
                                    Base Case   Existing    Minimum   Net Zero   Oil (Mbtu)
                                                Situation     LCC
                                                                                 Electric (Mbtu) 33
                       -1,000,000
REO Example: Minimize Life Cycle Cost
   US Navy San Nicolas Island CA
                                         80000
                                                                                       Daylighting (Mbtu)

                                         70000                                         Anaerobic Digester (Mbtu)

                                         60000                                         Biomass Gasifier (Mbtu)




                  Annual Energy (Mbtu)
                                                                                       Biomass Combustion
                                         50000                                         (Mbtu)
                                                                                       Solar Themal (Mbtu)
                                         40000
                                                                                       Solar Water Heating

                                         30000                                         Solar Vent Preheat (Mbtu)

                                                                                       Wind (Mbtu)
                                         20000
                                                                                       Photovoltaics (Mbtu)
                                         10000
                                                                                       JP5 Fuel (Mbtu)

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                Stations in TX




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                                                                                 ...
                                                                Wind (Mbtu)                                 Solar Vent Preheat (Mbtu)                   Solar Water Heating                     Solar Thermal (Mbtu)
                                                                Biomass Gasifier (Mbtu)                     Anaerobic Digester (Mbtu)                   Daylighting (Mbtu)                      Photovoltaics (Mbtu)




. Renewable Energy Cost and Savings Summary (sum of all facilities)
Initial Cost for Renewable Energy Projects ($)                                                               $4,104,797
Annual Electric Savings (kWh/year)                                                                            3,165,878
Annual Gas/Fuel Savings (therms/year)                                                                            20,730
Annual Cost Savings ($/year)                                                                                   $290,934
Simple Payback Period (years)                                                                                 14.1 years                                                                                      35
Rate of Return                                                                                                     7.7%
                   Initial Cost for Renewable Energy Projects ($)   $90,868
                   Annual Electric Savings (kWh/year)               39,074

USCG Facility      Annual Cost Savings ($/year)
                   Simple Payback Period (years)
                                                                     $5,972
                                                                        15.2
Diamond Head, HI   Rate of Return                                      7.0%
                   Percent Renewables                                 100%
with incentives    Sizes of Each Technology:
                   Photovoltaics (kW)                                  14.6
                   Wind Energy (kW)                                     2.4
                   Solar Water Heating (sf)                           137.8
                   Skylight Area (sf)                                 272.4




                                                                      36
                                                                                                                        Annual Energy (Mbtu)
                                                               Ar
                                                                   go
                                                                      nn
                                                                          eN
                                                            Fe Bro atio Am
                                                                rm okh na
                                                                                           l es




                                                                                                                             100000
                                                                                                                             150000
                                                                                                                             200000
                                                                                                                             250000
                                                                                                                             300000
                                                                                                                             350000
                                                                                                                             400000




                                                                                                                              50000
                                                                                                                                  0
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                                                                       at i aven Labo Labo
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                                                                                  Ac            o                        y
                                                                                                                                                               31 DOE


                                                                                       ce nal y Sit
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                                                                        Na         ab                       ua
                                                                             tio orat Ger rter
                                                                                 na             or        ma s
                                                                            Kn l Lab y - Id nt ow




                       Wind (Mbtu)
                                                                                 oll
                                                                                     s ora
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                                                             wr                  oll          m           -            ls
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                                                        .. .L ence                          tom Ke ville




Daylighting (Mbtu)
                                                             aw         B                         ic sser
                                                                 ren erk                              -            l




                       Solar Thermal (Mbtu)
                                                                      ce eley Las Nisk ing
                                                                          Liv
                                                                                                                                               Rate of Return




                                                                    Lo                  Na           Ve ayu
                                                                       s A ermo tion gas na
                                                                            lam re                  al         NV




                                                                Skylight Area (sf)
                                                                                  os Nat Labo /LV
                                                                Wind Energy (kW)



                                                                                                               r
                                                                Photovoltaics (kW)




                                                                                        Na ion
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                                                                                                            or
                                                                Solar Water Heating (sf)



                                                                                            NE NET atory
                                                            )O         O                         TL L A
                                                                ak ak                                 M          l
                                                                Sizes of Each Technology:




                                                                              Ri
                                                            Pa      Ri
                                                                       d         d           Ne org bany
                                                                Solar Thermal Electric (kW)


                                                                cif ge N ge N vad anto
                                                                   ic
                                                                                                                                               Annual Cost Savings ($/year)




                                                                      No at io at ion a Te wn
                                                                          rth         n                        s
                                                                                                                                               Simple Payback Period (years)




                                                                               we al L al La t Sit
                                                                                   st           ab
                                                                Solar Ventilation Air Preheat (sf)




                                                                                                            bO e
                                                                                        Na ora
                                                                                             t io       t          f fic
                                                                Biomass Gasification Cogen (kW)



                                                            Pr
                                                                Biomass Gasification Boiler (MBH)




                                                               inc                                na ory ( e
                                                                                                      lL
                                                                                                                                               Annual Electric Savings (kWh/year)




                                                                                          Pa                     X-
                                                                Solar Thermal Parabolic Trough (sf)



                                                                Biomass Anaerobic Digester r (Ft3))


                                                          Ric eton                              du abo 10
                                                              hla                                   ca        ra




Photovoltaics (Mbtu)
                                                                          Pl a
                                                                   nd          s             Pa h G tory
                                                                       Op ma
                                                                                        P         nt e ase
                                                                                                                                               Annual Gas/Fuel Savings (therms/year)




                                                                            e


                       Biomass Gasifier (Mbtu)
                                                                      Sa ratio hysi x Sit ous
                                                                Biomass Anaerobic Digester Cogen (kW)




                       Solar Vent Preheat (Mbtu)                          nd         ns cs                   eO
                                                                      Sa ia Na O ffi Labo ff ice
                                                                         nd            tio ce                 ra t
                                                                             i
                                                                                                                                               Initial Cost for Renewable Energy Projects ($)




                                                                      Sa a Na nal L - Ha ory
                                                                          nd          t                     n
                                                                              ia iona abor ford
                                                                                  Na            lL         ato 1
                                                                 S                     tio          a
                                                         . .T tanf                          na bora ry CA
                                                             ho         ord                     lL
                                                                 ma                                 ab tory
                                                                      s J Line                          ora NM
                                                                          ef f ar A Sava tory
                                                                              e rs           c          n             N
                                                                                   on cel nah V
                                                                             Wa Na erat                          Ri
                                                                                  ste tion or C ver
                                                                                         I so al A ent
                                                                                               lat        c            e
                                                                                                   ion cele r
                                                                                                        Pil rat
                       Solar Water Heating




                                                                                                            ot
                                                                                                                Pla
                                                                                                                       nt
                                                   37




                                                                                                                   Y-
                                                                                                                                               217,734,776




                                                                                                                       12
                                                                                                                                                     11.3%
                                                                                                                                                $26,241,533
                                                                                                                                                  8,693,565
                                                                                                                                               $269,634,839




                                                                                                                                                       10.3




                                                                2602033
                                                                      0
                                                                      0
                                                                    139
                                                                     51
                                                                      0
                                                                 452991
                                                                1274264
                                                                 460988
                                                                  41714
                                                                      0




                       Anaerobic Digester (Mbtu)
             DRAFT // FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY //

      Renewable Energy Portfolio
    Optimization Example: Nellis AFB
                                                                                    Data: Andy Walker, NREL
                 94 GWh/year electric + 52 GWh/year natural gas
                          $0.064/kWh electricity cost
                                    (52 GWh)                       (94 GWh)

    No Renewables               Natural Gas                        Electric

      Renewables
                                Natural Gas                Electric           Wind
 without Incentives
                                                             51                44
      Renewables                                 W
                             Natural Gas                Electric        PV           Wind
    with incentives                              H
                                      43                    43           25            44     18 GWh/yr
                                     Solar Water Heating (9 GWh)                              Sold


                       Photo              Energy    Energy from                     Rate of   Payback
                      voltaics Wind Size Savings Renewables Total Initial           Return     Period
                     Size (MW)   (MW)   (Gbtu/year)     (%)     Cost (M$)             (%)       (yrs)
Without
Incentives                0.0        10.6            150           30         21 12.5% 7.4
With Incentives*         14.0        10.8            410           53         68 7.8% 10.9
                    Renewable Energy Planning
    Results of Renewable Energy Optimization for 87 air bases
    Determines combination of Renewable Energy Technologies that MINIMIZES LIFE CYCLE COST
    Site-specific geospatial analysis
    No consideration of incentives from State, Local, Federal Governments and Utilities
    Considers interactions between technologies


 TOP 10 SITES BY ENERGY SAVINGS POTENTIAL

                                                                                                         Anaerobic
                                                            Solar         Solar          Biomass         Digester
                   Photo           Wind          Solar Vent Water         Thermal        Gasifier        Cogenerati          %                                 Energy
                   voltaics        Capacity      Preheat    Heating       Electric       Cogen           on Size    Renewable     Total Initial  Rate of      Savings
                   Size (kW)       (kW)          Area (ft2) Area (ft2)    (kW)           Size (kW)       (kW)       Energy Use       Cost ($) Return (%)   (Mbtu/year)
VANDENBERG AFB                 0        24,362           0            0              0               0            0      41.8%   $48,724,606      21.7%       454,551
USAF Academy                   0        18,609           0            0              0               0            0      21.4%   $37,217,127       8.2%       225,627
KIRTLAND AFB                   0        12,400           0            0              0               0            0      20.3%   $24,800,000       5.7%       165,452
NELLIS AFB                     0        10,764           0            0              0               0            0      29.9%   $21,527,176      12.5%       149,577
LANGLEY AFB                    0        14,100           0            0              0               0            0      17.3%   $28,200,000       4.7%       130,368
TRAVIS AFB                     0         8,310       62494      108,153              0               0            0      31.8%   $26,764,794       7.1%       118,096
MALMSTROM AFB                  0        10,904           0            0              0               0            0      14.4%   $21,808,727       8.1%       108,972
CAPE CANAVERAL                 0        15,309           0            0              0               0            0      19.7%   $30,617,899       8.2%       105,947
ANDREWS AFB                    0        13,403           0            0              0               0            0      11.4%   $26,806,149       8.2%        84,595
HURLBURT FLD                   0         9,992           0            0              0               0            0      15.2%   $19,984,401       7.6%        69,152
ANDERSON AB                    0        12,219           0       27,477              0               0            0      17.0%   $26,443,950      10.9%        63,894


     *selected from analysis of 105 primary USAF facilities.



         Objective is to identify and prioritize Renewable Energy opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                         39
                   Renewable Energy Planning
Results of Renewable Energy Optimization for 87* air bases
 SUMMARY RESULTS FOR ALL 87 SITES
  Initial Cost for Renewable Energy Projects ($)            $452,326,241
  Annual Electric Savings (kWh/year)                        652,232,484
  Annual Gas/Fuel Savings (therms/year)                       1,104,711
  Annual Cost Savings ($/year)                               $46,884,202
  Simple Payback Period (years)                                       9.6
  Rate of Return                                                  10.9%
  Percent of Energy From Renewables                                4.1%

  Sizes of Each Technology:                                                   Number of Sites:
  Photovoltaics (kW)                                                      0                       0
  Wind Energy (kW)                                                 214,171                       32
  Solar Ventilation Air Preheat (sf)                               167,181                        8
  Solar Water Heating (sf)                                         234,104                       13
  Solar Thermal Parabolic Trough (sf)                                     0                       0
  Solar Thermal Electric (kW)                                             0                       0
  Biomass Gasification Boiler (MBH)                                     0.0                       0
  Biomass Gasification Cogen (kW)                                         0                       0
  Biomass Anaerobic Digester (ft3)                                        0                       0
    * US Sites Anaerobic Digester Cogen (kW)
  Biomass only (plus one site on Guam and one in Germany)                 0                       0
  Skylight Area (sf)                                                      0                       0
                       This set of projects delivers green energy AND cost savings.


                                                                                                      40
It's so much easier to suggest solutions when you
      don't know too much about the problem.
                  - Malcolm Forbes



                  Thank You!

                         Andy Walker
                        Senior Engineer
             National Renewable Energy Laboratory
                    Andy_Walker@nrel.gov

                                                    41