Strategies for a sustainable_ CO2 neutral energy economy

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					     Strategies for a sustainable,
     CO2 neutral energy economy

                Daniel M. Kammen
    Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory
Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy
               University of California, Berkeley



      Solar to Fuel – Future Challenges and Solutions
   Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, March 28, 2005
                                          Mobilizing for a
                                        Low-Carbon Economy

   The time-scale of the Greenhouse problem (and opportunity) is ~ 5 decades.
   Doubling the pre-industrial CO2 level in the atmosphere is roughly the boundary
   between altered and unsafe; without action this be crossed within roughly 50-75
   years. (This is not a prescription to wait, but a call for dramatic action now.)

   Unconventional oil and gas, and coal, are abundant. With 15 times or more of
   these resources than oil, action on climate won‟t be initiated significantly by
   resource depletion (i.e. I disagree with Hubbert’s Peak)

   A portfolio approach is essential. The most basic lesson of our energy past is that
   diversity is our greatest ally (and the one we abandon most rapidly in a crisis).
   Basic research and policy analysis leading to action are both needed to open new
   opportunities for a low-carbon economy.

   Bottom line: Despite some important successes, a seed change is needed
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/total.html#IntlCarbon
     World Annual Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the
         Consumption of Fossil Fuels, 1980-2000

                                                  6,500                                                     3.11
          Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent




                                                                                                                   Concentration Increment (ppmv)
                                                  6,000                                                     2.87



                                                  5,500                                                     2.63



                                                  5,000                                                     2.39

                                                                               Climate-carbon connection:
                                                                                    2.1 Gt(C) = 1 ppm(v)
                                                  4,500                                                     2.15
                                                          1980   1984   1988      1992      1996     2000


http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/total.html#IntlCarbon
     Modeled Response to Natural &
     Anthropogenic Climate Forcings
GCM: Natural forcings only           GCM: human + natural forcings




                     Global Circulation Model (GCM) results; summarized in IPCC 2001


Philosophical changes require motivation:
    Yet we have both local and global
             ‘smoking guns’
                The „slice‟ heuristic:
Gt(C)/yr
18


12
                          Doubled CO2 „target‟
 6
           Ecological CO2 „target‟

 0
 2000                   2050                 2100

                                         Socolow and Pacala (2004)
                     15 “slices”
           50 year pathways to evolve 1.0 Gt(C)/yr carbon offsets

Gt(C)/yr
18


12


 6


 0
 2000                     2050                       2100

                                                 Socolow and Pacala (2004)
   A View of our energy system as unlikely
          to make sufficient progress
toward a low-carbon future without revolutions
                                      A. Capturing
                                              Solar
                                   Energy in space
                                (Peter Glaser et al.,
                                            1970s)



                                         B. Global
                                  Superconducting
                                 Transmission Grid
                               (Buckminster Fuller,
                                            1970s)
                                      Hoffert et al. (2003)
  Between you and
   me, I am rather
  dismayed by the
     responses.

   We have done too
little to move beyond
  ‘solving’ the (easy)
    boundary value
   problems… which
    are the ones we
      want to hear
                              Average in
Residential Electricity Use   Berkeley
(kWh/capita, 1960 - 2000)                  Energy Star
                               Average     Home
                               Dane




                                Savings Wedge
             A
                                                        55                                             3300
                                                                                  Business-As-Usual                                                                  Conclusions:




                                                                                                               Carbon Dioxide Emissions, MMTCE
                                                                 Space Heating
                                                                 Space C ooling




                                Primary Energy, Quads
                                                                 Water Heating
                                                                 Lighting
                                                        45                                             2700
Energy                                                           Refrigerators
                                                                 PC
                                                                 TV
                                                                                                                                                                     A) Moderate path:
                                                                 Other
Efficiency                                                                                                                                                           1.5% annual
                                                        35                         Moderate Scenario   2100
Futures                                                                                                                                                              improvement
                                                                       1990 Emissions Levels                                                                         Emissions growth
                                                        25
                                                             1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
                                                                                                       1500                                                          halted at a savings
                                                                                    Year
         B
                                                 55                                                    3300                                                          B) Aggressive
                                                                                 Busine ss-As-Usual




                                                                                                                                   Carbon Dioxide Emissions, MMTCE
                                                                Space Heating
                                                                Space C ooling
                                                                                                                                                                     path:
             Primary Energy, Quads




                                                                Water Heating

                                                 45             Lighting
                                                                Refrigerators                          2700                                                          2.9% annual
                                                                PC
                                                                TV
                                                                Other
                                                                                                                                                                     improvement
                                                 35                                                    2100
                                                                                                                                                                     Meet Kyoto levels
                                                                    Aggressive Scenario                                                                              by efficiency alone
                                                                      1990 Emissions Levels
                                                                                                                                                                     & facilitate clean
                                                 25                                                    1500
                                                        1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025                                                                      energy market
                                                                                    Year
                                                                                                                                                                     development
                                                                                                              Source: Kammen & Ling, in press
                      Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP
                              for the United States
2%
                    - 3.4%                                            Average = - 0.7%                                                      - 2.7%
1%



0%



-1%



-2%



-3%



-4%

                                                  IEA data       EIA data
-5%
                                                                   1989
      1981

             1982

                      1983

                             1984

                                    1985

                                           1986

                                                   1987

                                                          1988




                                                                            1990

                                                                                   1991

                                                                                          1992

                                                                                                 1993

                                                                                                        1994

                                                                                                               1995

                                                                                                                      1996

                                                                                                                             1997

                                                                                                                                     1998

                                                                                                                                              1999

                                                                                                                                                     2000

                                                                                                                                                            2001
-6%



                                                                                                                                    Rosenfeld, CEC, LBL
Source: T. J. Berniard, NREL
                World PV Module Shipments (Megawatts)
                   (25% annual growth for 10+ years)


              600
              500
              400
              300
              200
              100
                 0      1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
      Rest of World      1    2     3    3    4    5    5    5    4    6    6   10    9    19     28    44   68    80    104
      Eu rop e           3    4     5    7    8   10   13   16   17   22   20   19   30    30     41    52   77    120   185
      Japan             10   12    19   13   14   17   20   19   17   17   16   21   35    49     75   100   165   180   219
      Un ited S tates    8    7     9   11   14   15   17   18   22   26   35   39   51    54     58    61   63    65     66
      Total             23   26    30   34   40   47   55   58   60   70   78   89   126   151   202   257   373   445   574


     2003 Annual growth: 34%; 50% in 2004 (to 1200 MW)

Today: global PV production is equivalent (MW) to one large fossil-fuel power plant/year
A useful (?) heuristic, or an example of stagnant thinking




                       6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each = 20 TWe
Solar Across Scales

 Moscone Center: 675,000 W




           Kammen home: 2400 W




                             Kenyan PV market:
                        Average system: 18W
           Performance Results for
              a-Si PV Modules
                       100
Maximum Power Output
 (% of Rated Power)     80


                        60


                        40


                        20


                         0
                              Koncar   Free Energy   Intersolar    Crystalline
                             (12 Wp)      Europe   Phoenix Gold   PV (various
                                         (12 Wp)      (14 Wp)       brands)

                                        Module Brand
              Learning Curve for PV Modules
                    (crystalline silicon)


      100
                             1980
    [€/Wp]
                                           1990
      10                                            2000
                                                                  2010      2020

      1


             10-4   10-3   10-2     10-1        1          10        102        103
                                    Cumulative installed PV Peak Power [GW p]

Today PV electricity costs about $0.20 - 0.25/kWh,
Which can be compared with $0.32/kWh PG&E charges for TOU
customers during peak time (noon-6pm)
                   Biomass – in Sub Saharan Africa
                        (500 million tons/yr)

                                   Biomass accounts for :
                                   • 70% of total energy use
                                   • 90% of household use
                                   •   Compared with 3% for OECD countries


                                   Of harvested wood :
                                   • ~ 75% used for cooking
                                   • ~ 15% used to make charcoal

                                   Charcoal use is:
                                   • Growing faster than woodfuel
                                   • Mainly commercial urban fuel
                                   • Attributed main blame for
                                     unsustainable forest use
Bailis, Ezzati and Kammen (2005)
           World Wind Electricity Capacity (Megawatts)
            (20%+ annual growth for over a decade!)


     40,000
     35,000
     30,000
     25,000
     20,000
     15,000
     10,000
      5,000
          0      80    81   82   83   84   85   86   87   88   89   90   91    92     93     94     95     96     97     98     99     '00    '01   '02   '03
Ch ina                                     0    1    1    1    4    4     5      8     12     25     36     59     143   217    267     344   401 468 525
US A               5   10   70   240 597 1039 1222 1356 1396 1403 1525 1575    1584   1617   1656   1697   1698   1706   1848   2511   2578   4275 4685 6,374
EU                                                                 439 629      844   1211   1683   2497   3476   4753   5453   9678   1288   1731 2305 2800
An nual Add ition 5    15   65   120 390 420 250 180 130 150 200 240            250   500     180   1290   1290   1570   2510   3780   4520   6480 6720 8133
Total             10   25   90   210 600 1020 1270 1450 1580 1730 1,930 2170   2290   2990   3145   4780   6070   7640   1015   1393   1845   2493 31,65 3929




Global leaders: Germany, Denmark, Spain, US, UK, China, India (> 85 of global market)
US was a global leader, today we are a player, but not the leader.
      State Renewables Portfolio Standards
            and Mandates – 16 States
                                                     NY – in development:      ME: 30% by 2000
                     MN: 10% by 2015 for Xcel +       NY: 25% by 2020
                     >800 MW RE requirement           7.5% new by 2013
                                                                                 MA: 4% new by 2009
                                                    WI: 2.2% by 2011           RI: 16% by 2019
           NV: 15% by 2013                                                     CT: 10% by 2010
                                IA: 105 aMW       PA: varies by utility
                                                                           NJ: 6.5% by 2008

                             11/2/04                                      MD: 7.5% by 2019
 CA: 20% by 2017


       AZ: 1.1% by 2007


          NM: 10% by 2011

HI: 20% by 2020                        TX: 2880 MW by 2009

   • Renewable energy “goals” established in Illinois and Minnesota
   • RPS being considered in many other states (e.g., VT, WA); potentially revised in others
     (ME, PA, WI); and national RPS is being discussed (by some)

                                                                                        R. Wiser, LBL
                                                  Study reviews:
            UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA
            BERKELEY


                                                  • 13 studies of
            REPORT OF THE                           job creation
            RENEWABLE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGY
            LABORA TORY


            Putting Renewables to Work:           • Message:
            How Many Jobs Can the
            Clean Energy Industry
                                                    energy
            Generate?                               efficiency and
            by                                      renewables
            Daniel M. Kammen
                                                    create large
            Kamal Kapadia                           numbers of
            Matthias Fripp
                                                    high quality
            of the
Report      Energy and Resources Group &            jobs
            the Goldman School of Public Policy
available   APRIL 13, 2004


at:


     http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~rael/papers.html
            New SUV Models Coming Soon

                                               The Kenworth Grand Dominator
                                                - Extra high roof/cathedral ceilings
                                                - Power expandable sides
                                                - Full lavatory




  The Peterbuilt Crusader
     All Sport Denali
  The worlds first two story high
     performance sport brute
Crusader-E Edition: includes elevator
Source: http://poseur.4x4.org/futuresuv.html
               Greenhouse Comparison:
             FCVs, ICEs and Hybrid Vehicles




Source: Bevilacqua-Knight, 2001
               Carbon-Free Power by 2050
                            (Berry and Lamont)


• U.S. Population   400 million people    (up 40%)
• Electricity Use   3 kWe/capita          (up 37%)

• Wind              300,000 5 MW Turbines (All the wind-
                    power available from the Dakotas)

• Solar PV         150 million 25 kW roofs (Every roof top
                   in the United States)
• Biomass          Not included, but could be > 10% of total
• Advanced Fission 300 1 GWe nuclear plants (50% efficient)

• 100% H2 Vehicles “80 mpg” average for cars and SUV’s
                   3 million H trucks, 5000 LH airliners
So, What are We Doing About All
             This?



            Well, ….
                                      Federal R&D Investments, 1955 - 2004
                       120     Defense
                               Space
                       100     Health
R&D (billion 2002$s)




                               Energy
                       80      General Science
                               Other

                       60


                       40


                       20


                        0
                        1955   1960    1965      1970   1975   1980   1985   1990   1995   2000
                               Private Sector R&D Investment in Health and Energy

                               15,000
Private-sector R&D (2002 $m)




                                                                     Drugs and
                               10,000                                Medicines




                                5,000

                                                                      Energy

                                   0
                                        1980   1985   1990    1995       2000           2005

                                                                          Kammen qnd Nemet, 2005
Federal R&D Policy Can be Very Effective
   (All sectors of the U. S. Economy)




                               Margolis and Kammen (1999)
The Same Funding-Patent Correlation …
      But Now for Energy Only




                           Margolis and Kammen (1999)
                                                      Citations Received per Patent
                                                     "Energy Sector" vs. All Patents
Av erage citations receiv ed per




                                   8

                                   6
            patent




                                   4
                                                             Power Plants
                                                             All Patents
                                   2

                                   0
                                       1965   1970    1975            1980   1985      1990       1995


                                                                                    Kammen and Nemet (2005) in review
        Some Critical Needs for Research


• Low cost photovoltaics (< $1/Watt)
    • Drivers: funding; technology diversity; markets
• Low cost energy storage
    •H2, flywheels, compressed air, pumped hydro, …
• Biomass gassification across scales of application
• Power electronics for mini-grids, distributed systems
• Carbon sequestration
• Nano energy and wireless systems to initiate a second
  ‘wave’ of energy efficiency increases
• Understanding and action on the economics of carbon
  (and pollutants generally)
        Opportunities for Policy Action

• Expand state renewable energy portfolio standards

• Support Solar Home bills (build clean energy markets)
   • & renewable energy/energy efficient mortgages

• Accelerate the CA Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard


• Enact carbon cap & trade: work with western states,
  northeast US (RGGI), UK

• Get serious about Kyoto and a carbon tax
                                  To Address Climate Change,
                                 we must utilize renewable energy
                                    Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 1850: 265 ppm
kg (carbon)/kWh of Electricity



                                    Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2000: 370 ppm

                                             Advanced coal
                                              technologies

                                                                        Carbon/kWh for
                                                                 atmospheric stabilization
                                                                         at 450, 550 ppm
                                  To Address Climate Change,
                                 we must utilize renewable energy
                                    Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 1850: 265 ppm
kg (carbon)/kWh of Electricity



                                    Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2000: 370 ppm

                                             Advanced coal
                                              technologies

                                                                             Carbon/kWh for
                                                                      atmospheric stabilization
                                                                              at 450, 550 ppm
                                                              = -1%/yr
 Potential 1 Gt Carbon Industries in 2050 (p.1 of 2)
 View of energy system as available solutions (Socolow & Pacala, 2004)
Mitigation             1 Gt(C)/yr Global Business Risk, Impact
Measure

Coal plant: CO2        700 1GW plants                                 CO2 leakage
stored, not vented
Nuclear displaces      1500 1 GW plants (5 x current)                 Nuclear proliferation and
average plant                                                         terrorism, nuclear waste
Wind displaces         150 x current                                  NIMBY, new transmission needed
average plant
Solar PV displaces     2000 x current; 5x106 ha                       Minimal impact, cost
average plant
Hydrogen fuel          1 billion H2 cars (CO2-emission-free H2)       H2 infrastructure; cost, H2 storage
                       displace 1 billion 30 mpg gasoline/diesel
Efficiency, overall    8% of 2050 “expected” fossil C extraction      Minimal
Efficiency, vehicles   2 billion gasoline and diesel cars at 60 mpg   Lifestyle (car size and power)
only                   instead of 30 mpg (or, at 30 mpg, going        Urban design
                       6,000 rather than 12,000 miles per year).
  Achieving stabilization, slice by slice (p.2 of 2)


Mitigation              1 Gt(C)/yr Global Business            Risk, Impact
Measure

Geological seq‟n        3500 Sleipners, at 1 Mt( CO2)/year    Global and local leakage


Land sink               Now 1.5 Gt(C)/yr, sink becomes 2.0    Current estimate for 2050 sink is
                        Gt(C)/yr, rather than 1.0 Gt(C)/yr    several times more uncertain

Biomass fuels from      100x106 ha, growing @ 10 t(C)/ha-yr   Biodiversity, competing land use
plantations                                                   (200x106 ha = US agricultural area)

Storage in new forest   500x106 ha, growing @ 2 t(C)/ha-yr    Biodiversity, competing land use

				
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