The 2011-2016 World Outlook for Zinc-Coated and Zinc-Plated Carbon Steel Round Wire under 1.55 Mm in Diameter by ICONGroup

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This econometric study covers the world outlook for zinc-coated and zinc-plated carbon steel round wire under 1.55 mm in diameter across more than 200 countries. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.

This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the 230 countries of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E., for zinc-coated and zinc-plated carbon steel round wire under 1.55 mm in diameter. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s regional and national markets. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.

More Info
									   The 2011-2016 World Outlook for Zinc-
    Coated and Zinc-Plated Carbon Steel
   Round Wire under 1.55 Mm in Diameter




                                          by
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                       Chaired Professor of Management Science
                     INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




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                                          About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.


                                          About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.


                                        Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




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                     About ICON Group International, Inc.

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    Contents                                                                                                v


Table of Contents
1       INTRODUCTION                                                                                   10
     1.1      Overview                                                                                 10
     1.2      What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                    10
     1.3      The Methodology                                                                          11
        1.3.1   Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                         12
        1.3.2   Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                        13
        1.3.3   Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                                      13
        1.3.4   Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                       14
        1.3.5   Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                              14
        1.3.6   Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                                   15
        1.3.7   Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities                                15
2       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                            16
     2.1   The Worldwide Market Potential                                                              16
3       AFRICA                                                                                         18
     3.1    Executive Summary                                                                          18
     3.2    Algeria                                                                                    19
     3.3    Angola                                                                                     20
     3.4    Benin                                                                                      21
     3.5    Botswana                                                                                   22
     3.6    Burkina Faso                                                                               23
     3.7    Burundi                                                                                    23
     3.8    Cameroon                                                                                   24
     3.9    Cape Verde                                                                                 25
     3.10   Central African Republic                                                                   25
     3.11   Chad                                                                                       26
     3.12   Comoros                                                                                    27
     3.13   Congo (formerly Zaire)                                                                     27
     3.14   Cote d'Ivoire                                                                              28
     3.15   Djibouti                                                                                   29
     3.16   Egypt                                                                                      30
     3.17   Equatorial Guinea                                                                          31
     3.18   Ethiopia                                                                                   31
     3.19   Gabon                                                                                      32
     3.20   Ghana                                                                                      33
     3.21   Guinea                                                                                     34
     3.22   Guinea-Bissau                                                                              34
     3.23   Kenya                                                                                      35
     3.24   Lesotho                                                                                    36
     3.25   Liberia                                                                                    36
     3.26   Libya                                                                                      37
     3.27   Madagascar                                                                                 38
     3.28   Malawi                                                                                     39
     3.29   Mali                                                                                       39
     3.30   Mauritania                                                                                 40
     3.31   Mauritius                                                                                  41
     3.32   Morocco                                                                                    41
     3.33   Mozambique                                                                                 42
     3.34   Namibia                                                                                    43
     3.35   Niger                                                                                      43
     3.36   Nigeria                                                                                    44

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     3.37      Republic of Congo                                  45
     3.38      Reunion                                            46
     3.39      Rwanda                                             47
     3.40      Sao Tome E Principe                                47
     3.41      Senegal                                            48
     3.42      Sierra Leone                                       49
     3.43      Somalia                                            49
     3.44      South Africa                                       50
     3.45      Sudan                                              51
     3.46      Swaziland                                          52
     3.47      Tanzania                                           53
     3.48      The Gambia                                         54
     3.49      Togo                                               55
     3.50      Tunisia                                            56
     3.51      Uganda                                             57
     3.52      Western Sahara                                     58
     3.53      Zambia                                             58
     3.54      Zimbabwe                                           59
4       ASIA                                                      61
     4.1     Executive Summary                                    61
     4.2     Bangladesh                                           62
     4.3     Bhutan                                               63
     4.4     Brunei                                               64
     4.5     Burma                                                65
     4.6     Cambodia                                             66
     4.7     China                                                66
     4.8     Hong Kong                                            67
     4.9     India                                                68
     4.10    Indonesia                                            69
     4.11    Japan                                                70
     4.12    Laos                                                 71
     4.13    Macau                                                71
     4.14    Malaysia                                             72
     4.15    Maldives                                             73
     4.16    Mongolia                                             74
     4.17    Nepal                                                75
     4.18    North Korea                                          75
     4.19    Papua New Guinea                                     76
     4.20    Philippines                                          77
     4.21    Seychelles                                           78
     4.22    Singapore                                            78
     4.23    South Korea                                          79
     4.24    Sri Lanka                                            80
     4.25    Taiwan                                               81
     4.26    Thailand                                             82
     4.27    Vietnam                                              83
5       EUROPE                                                    84
     5.1   Executive Summary                                      84
     5.2   Albania                                                85
     5.3   Andorra                                                86
     5.4   Austria                                                87
     5.5   Belarus                                                88


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     5.6       Belgium                                               89
     5.7       Bosnia and Herzegovina                                90
     5.8       Bulgaria                                              91
     5.9       Croatia                                               92
     5.10      Cyprus                                                93
     5.11      Czech Republic                                        93
     5.12      Denmark                                               94
     5.13      Estonia                                               95
     5.14      Finland                                               96
     5.15      France                                                97
     5.16      Georgia                                               98
     5.17      Germany                                               99
     5.18      Greece                                               100
     5.19      Hungary                                              101
     5.20      Iceland                                              102
     5.21      Ireland                                              103
     5.22      Italy                                                103
     5.23      Kazakhstan                                           104
     5.24      Latvia                                               105
     5.25      Liechtenstein                                        106
     5.26      Lithuania                                            107
     5.27      Luxembourg                                           107
     5.28      Malta                                                108
     5.29      Moldova                                              109
     5.30      Monaco                                               109
     5.31      Norway                                               110
     5.32      Poland                                               111
     5.33      Portugal                                             112
     5.34      Romania                                              113
     5.35      Russia                                               114
     5.36      San Marino                                           115
     5.37      Slovakia                                             115
     5.38      Slovenia                                             116
     5.39      Spain                                                117
     5.40      Sweden                                               118
     5.41      Switzerland                                          119
     5.42      The Netherlands                                      120
     5.43      The United Kingdom                                   121
     5.44      Ukraine                                              122
6       OCEANA                                                      123
     6.1   Executive Summary                                        123
     6.2   American Samoa                                           124
     6.3   Australia                                                125
     6.4   Christmas Island                                         126
     6.5   Cook Islands                                             126
     6.6   Fiji                                                     127
     6.7   French Polynesia                                         128
     6.8   Guam                                                     128
     6.9   Kiribati                                                 129
     6.10  Marshall Islands                                         130
     6.11  Micronesia Federation                                    130
     6.12  Nauru                                                    131


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     6.13      New Caledonia                                             132
     6.14      New Zealand                                               133
     6.15      Niue                                                      134
     6.16      Norfolk Island                                            134
     6.17      Palau                                                     135
     6.18      Solomon Islands                                           136
     6.19      The Northern Mariana Island                               136
     6.20      Tokelau                                                   137
     6.21      Tonga                                                     138
     6.22      Tuvalu                                                    138
     6.23      Vanuatu                                                   139
     6.24      Wallis and Futuna                                         140
     6.25      Western Samoa                                             140
7       THE AMERICAS                                                     142
     7.1    Executive Summary                                            142
     7.2    Antigua and Barbuda                                          143
     7.3    Argentina                                                    144
     7.4    Aruba                                                        145
     7.5    Barbados                                                     145
     7.6    Belize                                                       146
     7.7    Bermuda                                                      147
     7.8    Bolivia                                                      147
     7.9    Brazil                                                       148
     7.10   Canada                                                       149
     7.11   Chile                                                        150
     7.12   Colombia                                                     151
     7.13   Costa Rica                                                   152
     7.14   Cuba                                                         153
     7.15   Dominica                                                     154
     7.16   Dominican Republic                                           154
     7.17   Ecuador                                                      155
     7.18   El Salvador                                                  156
     7.19   French Guiana                                                156
     7.20   Greenland                                                    157
     7.21   Grenada                                                      158
     7.22   Guadeloupe                                                   159
     7.23   Guatemala                                                    160
     7.24   Guyana                                                       161
     7.25   Haiti                                                        161
     7.26   Honduras                                                     162
     7.27   Jamaica                                                      163
     7.28   Martinique                                                   163
     7.29   Mexico                                                       164
     7.30   Nicaragua                                                    165
     7.31   Panama                                                       166
     7.32   Paraguay                                                     167
     7.33   Peru                                                         168
     7.34   Puerto Rico                                                  169
     7.35   St. Kitts and Nevis                                          170
     7.36   St. Lucia                                                    170
     7.37   St. Vincent and the Grenadines                               171
     7.38   Suriname                                                     172


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     7.39      The Bahamas                                                            172
     7.40      The British Virgin Islands                                             173
     7.41      The Cayman Islands                                                     174
     7.42      The Falkland Islands                                                   174
     7.43      The Netherlands Antilles                                               175
     7.44      The U.S. Virgin Islands                                                176
     7.45      The United States                                                      176
     7.46      Trinidad and Tobago                                                    177
     7.47      Uruguay                                                                178
     7.48      Venezuela                                                              179
8       THE MIDDLE EAST                                                               180
     8.1    Executive Summary                                                         180
     8.2    Afghanistan                                                               181
     8.3    Armenia                                                                   182
     8.4    Azerbaijan                                                                183
     8.5    Bahrain                                                                   184
     8.6    Iran                                                                      185
     8.7    Iraq                                                                      186
     8.8    Israel                                                                    187
     8.9    Jordan                                                                    188
     8.10   Kuwait                                                                    189
     8.11   Kyrgyzstan                                                                189
     8.12   Lebanon                                                                   190
     8.13   Oman                                                                      191
     8.14   Pakistan                                                                  191
     8.15   Palestine                                                                 192
     8.16   Qatar                                                                     193
     8.17   Saudi Arabia                                                              193
     8.18   Syrian Arab Republic                                                      194
     8.19   Tajikistan                                                                195
     8.20   The United Arab Emirates                                                  196
     8.21   Turkey                                                                    196
     8.22   Turkmenistan                                                              197
     8.23   Uzbekistan                                                                198
     8.24   Yemen                                                                     199
9       DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS                        201
     9.1    Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                                 201
     9.2    ICON Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions     
								
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