The 2011-2016 World Outlook for Zinc and Zinc-Base Alloy Castings Excluding Die-Castings

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The 2011-2016 World Outlook for Zinc and Zinc-Base Alloy Castings Excluding Die-Castings Powered By Docstoc
					The 2011-2016 World Outlook for Zinc and
 Zinc-Base Alloy Castings Excluding Die-
                Castings




                                          by
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                       Chaired Professor of Management Science
                     INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




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                                          About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.


                                          About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.


                                        Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




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    Contents                                                                                                v


Table of Contents
1       INTRODUCTION                                                                                   10
     1.1      Overview                                                                                 10
     1.2      What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                    10
     1.3      The Methodology                                                                          11
        1.3.1   Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                         12
        1.3.2   Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                        13
        1.3.3   Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                                      13
        1.3.4   Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                       14
        1.3.5   Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                              14
        1.3.6   Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                                   15
        1.3.7   Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities                                15
2       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                            16
     2.1   The Worldwide Market Potential                                                              16
3       AFRICA                                                                                         18
     3.1    Executive Summary                                                                          18
     3.2    Algeria                                                                                    19
     3.3    Angola                                                                                     20
     3.4    Benin                                                                                      21
     3.5    Botswana                                                                                   21
     3.6    Burkina Faso                                                                               22
     3.7    Burundi                                                                                    23
     3.8    Cameroon                                                                                   23
     3.9    Cape Verde                                                                                 24
     3.10   Central African Republic                                                                   25
     3.11   Chad                                                                                       25
     3.12   Comoros                                                                                    26
     3.13   Congo (formerly Zaire)                                                                     27
     3.14   Cote d'Ivoire                                                                              28
     3.15   Djibouti                                                                                   28
     3.16   Egypt                                                                                      29
     3.17   Equatorial Guinea                                                                          30
     3.18   Ethiopia                                                                                   30
     3.19   Gabon                                                                                      31
     3.20   Ghana                                                                                      32
     3.21   Guinea                                                                                     33
     3.22   Guinea-Bissau                                                                              33
     3.23   Kenya                                                                                      34
     3.24   Lesotho                                                                                    35
     3.25   Liberia                                                                                    35
     3.26   Libya                                                                                      36
     3.27   Madagascar                                                                                 37
     3.28   Malawi                                                                                     37
     3.29   Mali                                                                                       38
     3.30   Mauritania                                                                                 39
     3.31   Mauritius                                                                                  39
     3.32   Morocco                                                                                    40
     3.33   Mozambique                                                                                 41
     3.34   Namibia                                                                                    41
     3.35   Niger                                                                                      42
     3.36   Nigeria                                                                                    43

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     3.37      Republic of Congo                                  44
     3.38      Reunion                                            44
     3.39      Rwanda                                             45
     3.40      Sao Tome E Principe                                46
     3.41      Senegal                                            46
     3.42      Sierra Leone                                       47
     3.43      Somalia                                            48
     3.44      South Africa                                       48
     3.45      Sudan                                              49
     3.46      Swaziland                                          50
     3.47      Tanzania                                           50
     3.48      The Gambia                                         51
     3.49      Togo                                               52
     3.50      Tunisia                                            53
     3.51      Uganda                                             54
     3.52      Western Sahara                                     54
     3.53      Zambia                                             55
     3.54      Zimbabwe                                           56
4       ASIA                                                      57
     4.1     Executive Summary                                    57
     4.2     Bangladesh                                           58
     4.3     Bhutan                                               59
     4.4     Brunei                                               60
     4.5     Burma                                                60
     4.6     Cambodia                                             61
     4.7     China                                                62
     4.8     Hong Kong                                            63
     4.9     India                                                63
     4.10    Indonesia                                            64
     4.11    Japan                                                65
     4.12    Laos                                                 66
     4.13    Macau                                                67
     4.14    Malaysia                                             68
     4.15    Maldives                                             69
     4.16    Mongolia                                             69
     4.17    Nepal                                                70
     4.18    North Korea                                          71
     4.19    Papua New Guinea                                     72
     4.20    Philippines                                          72
     4.21    Seychelles                                           73
     4.22    Singapore                                            74
     4.23    South Korea                                          74
     4.24    Sri Lanka                                            75
     4.25    Taiwan                                               76
     4.26    Thailand                                             77
     4.27    Vietnam                                              77
5       EUROPE                                                    79
     5.1   Executive Summary                                      79
     5.2   Albania                                                80
     5.3   Andorra                                                81
     5.4   Austria                                                81
     5.5   Belarus                                                82


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     5.6       Belgium                                               83
     5.7       Bosnia and Herzegovina                                84
     5.8       Bulgaria                                              85
     5.9       Croatia                                               86
     5.10      Cyprus                                                86
     5.11      Czech Republic                                        87
     5.12      Denmark                                               88
     5.13      Estonia                                               89
     5.14      Finland                                               89
     5.15      France                                                90
     5.16      Georgia                                               91
     5.17      Germany                                               92
     5.18      Greece                                                93
     5.19      Hungary                                               94
     5.20      Iceland                                               95
     5.21      Ireland                                               96
     5.22      Italy                                                 96
     5.23      Kazakhstan                                            97
     5.24      Latvia                                                98
     5.25      Liechtenstein                                         99
     5.26      Lithuania                                            100
     5.27      Luxembourg                                           100
     5.28      Malta                                                101
     5.29      Moldova                                              102
     5.30      Monaco                                               102
     5.31      Norway                                               103
     5.32      Poland                                               104
     5.33      Portugal                                             105
     5.34      Romania                                              106
     5.35      Russia                                               107
     5.36      San Marino                                           108
     5.37      Slovakia                                             108
     5.38      Slovenia                                             109
     5.39      Spain                                                110
     5.40      Sweden                                               111
     5.41      Switzerland                                          112
     5.42      The Netherlands                                      113
     5.43      The United Kingdom                                   114
     5.44      Ukraine                                              115
6       OCEANA                                                      116
     6.1   Executive Summary                                        116
     6.2   American Samoa                                           117
     6.3   Australia                                                118
     6.4   Christmas Island                                         119
     6.5   Cook Islands                                             119
     6.6   Fiji                                                     120
     6.7   French Polynesia                                         120
     6.8   Guam                                                     121
     6.9   Kiribati                                                 122
     6.10  Marshall Islands                                         122
     6.11  Micronesia Federation                                    123
     6.12  Nauru                                                    123


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     6.13      New Caledonia                                             124
     6.14      New Zealand                                               124
     6.15      Niue                                                      125
     6.16      Norfolk Island                                            126
     6.17      Palau                                                     126
     6.18      Solomon Islands                                           127
     6.19      The Northern Mariana Island                               127
     6.20      Tokelau                                                   128
     6.21      Tonga                                                     128
     6.22      Tuvalu                                                    129
     6.23      Vanuatu                                                   129
     6.24      Wallis and Futuna                                         130
     6.25      Western Samoa                                             130
7       THE AMERICAS                                                     132
     7.1    Executive Summary                                            132
     7.2    Antigua and Barbuda                                          133
     7.3    Argentina                                                    134
     7.4    Aruba                                                        135
     7.5    Barbados                                                     135
     7.6    Belize                                                       136
     7.7    Bermuda                                                      137
     7.8    Bolivia                                                      137
     7.9    Brazil                                                       138
     7.10   Canada                                                       139
     7.11   Chile                                                        140
     7.12   Colombia                                                     141
     7.13   Costa Rica                                                   142
     7.14   Cuba                                                         143
     7.15   Dominica                                                     144
     7.16   Dominican Republic                                           144
     7.17   Ecuador                                                      145
     7.18   El Salvador                                                  146
     7.19   French Guiana                                                146
     7.20   Greenland                                                    147
     7.21   Grenada                                                      148
     7.22   Guadeloupe                                                   148
     7.23   Guatemala                                                    149
     7.24   Guyana                                                       150
     7.25   Haiti                                                        150
     7.26   Honduras                                                     151
     7.27   Jamaica                                                      152
     7.28   Martinique                                                   152
     7.29   Mexico                                                       153
     7.30   Nicaragua                                                    154
     7.31   Panama                                                       155
     7.32   Paraguay                                                     156
     7.33   Peru                                                         157
     7.34   Puerto Rico                                                  158
     7.35   St. Kitts and Nevis                                          159
     7.36   St. Lucia                                                    159
     7.37   St. Vincent and the Grenadines                               160
     7.38   Suriname                                                     161


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     7.39      The Bahamas                                                            161
     7.40      The British Virgin Islands                                             162
     7.41      The Cayman Islands                                                     163
     7.42      The Falkland Islands                                                   163
     7.43      The Netherlands Antilles                                               164
     7.44      The U.S. Virgin Islands                                                165
     7.45      The United States                                                      165
     7.46      Trinidad and Tobago                                                    166
     7.47      Uruguay                                                                167
     7.48      Venezuela                                                              167
8       THE MIDDLE EAST                                                               169
     8.1    Executive Summary                                                         169
     8.2    Afghanistan                                                               170
     8.3    Armenia                                                                   171
     8.4    Azerbaijan                                                                172
     8.5    Bahrain                                                                   172
     8.6    Iran                                                                      173
     8.7    Iraq                                                                      174
     8.8    Israel                                                                    175
     8.9    Jordan                                                                    175
     8.10   Kuwait                                                                    176
     8.11   Kyrgyzstan                                                                177
     8.12   Lebanon                                                                   177
     8.13   Oman                                                                      178
     8.14   Pakistan                                                                  179
     8.15   Palestine                                                                 180
     8.16   Qatar                                                                     180
     8.17   Saudi Arabia                                                              181
     8.18   Syrian Arab Republic                                                      182
     8.19   Tajikistan                                                                183
     8.20   The United Arab Emirates                                                  183
     8.21   Turkey                                                                    184
     8.22   Turkmenistan                                                              185
     8.23   Uzbekistan                                                                185
     8.24   Yemen                                                                     186
9       DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS                        188
     9.1    Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                                 188
     9.2    ICON Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions                  189




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 Introduction                                                                                                         10


1     INTRODUCTION
1.1    OVERVIEW

This study covers the world outlook for zinc and zinc-base alloy castings excluding die-castings across more than
200 countries. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings
(P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of
the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using
econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent
demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent
demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might
affect realized sales. T
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: This econometric study covers the world outlook for zinc and zinc-base alloy castings excluding die-castings across more than 200 countries. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the 230 countries of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E., for zinc and zinc-base alloy castings excluding die-castings. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s regional and national markets. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
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