The 2011-2016 World Outlook for Wine, Brandy, and Brandy Spirits by ICONGroup

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									   The 2011-2016 World Outlook for Wine,
         Brandy, and Brandy Spirits




                                          by
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                       Chaired Professor of Management Science
                     INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




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                                          About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.


                                          About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.


                                        Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




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                     About ICON Group International, Inc.

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U.S.-owned and operated, ICON Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market
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reports focus on a particular product and region (up to four regions per product), while others focus on a product
within a particular country.


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Table of Contents
1       INTRODUCTION                                                                                   10
     1.1      Overview                                                                                 10
     1.2      What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                    10
     1.3      The Methodology                                                                          11
        1.3.1   Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                         12
        1.3.2   Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                        14
        1.3.3   Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                                      15
        1.3.4   Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                       15
        1.3.5   Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                              15
        1.3.6   Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                                   16
        1.3.7   Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities                                16
2       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                            17
     2.1   The Worldwide Market Potential                                                              17
3       AFRICA                                                                                         19
     3.1    Executive Summary                                                                          19
     3.2    Algeria                                                                                    20
     3.3    Angola                                                                                     21
     3.4    Benin                                                                                      22
     3.5    Botswana                                                                                   22
     3.6    Burkina Faso                                                                               23
     3.7    Burundi                                                                                    24
     3.8    Cameroon                                                                                   24
     3.9    Cape Verde                                                                                 25
     3.10   Central African Republic                                                                   26
     3.11   Chad                                                                                       26
     3.12   Comoros                                                                                    27
     3.13   Congo (formerly Zaire)                                                                     28
     3.14   Cote d'Ivoire                                                                              29
     3.15   Djibouti                                                                                   29
     3.16   Egypt                                                                                      30
     3.17   Equatorial Guinea                                                                          31
     3.18   Ethiopia                                                                                   31
     3.19   Gabon                                                                                      32
     3.20   Ghana                                                                                      33
     3.21   Guinea                                                                                     34
     3.22   Guinea-Bissau                                                                              34
     3.23   Kenya                                                                                      35
     3.24   Lesotho                                                                                    36
     3.25   Liberia                                                                                    36
     3.26   Libya                                                                                      37
     3.27   Madagascar                                                                                 38
     3.28   Malawi                                                                                     38
     3.29   Mali                                                                                       39
     3.30   Mauritania                                                                                 40
     3.31   Mauritius                                                                                  40
     3.32   Morocco                                                                                    41
     3.33   Mozambique                                                                                 42
     3.34   Namibia                                                                                    42
     3.35   Niger                                                                                      43
     3.36   Nigeria                                                                                    44

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     3.37      Republic of Congo                                  45
     3.38      Reunion                                            45
     3.39      Rwanda                                             46
     3.40      Sao Tome E Principe                                47
     3.41      Senegal                                            47
     3.42      Sierra Leone                                       48
     3.43      Somalia                                            49
     3.44      South Africa                                       49
     3.45      Sudan                                              50
     3.46      Swaziland                                          51
     3.47      Tanzania                                           51
     3.48      The Gambia                                         52
     3.49      Togo                                               53
     3.50      Tunisia                                            54
     3.51      Uganda                                             55
     3.52      Western Sahara                                     55
     3.53      Zambia                                             56
     3.54      Zimbabwe                                           57
4       ASIA                                                      58
     4.1     Executive Summary                                    58
     4.2     Bangladesh                                           59
     4.3     Bhutan                                               60
     4.4     Brunei                                               61
     4.5     Burma                                                61
     4.6     Cambodia                                             62
     4.7     China                                                63
     4.8     Hong Kong                                            64
     4.9     India                                                64
     4.10    Indonesia                                            65
     4.11    Japan                                                66
     4.12    Laos                                                 67
     4.13    Macau                                                68
     4.14    Malaysia                                             69
     4.15    Maldives                                             70
     4.16    Mongolia                                             70
     4.17    Nepal                                                71
     4.18    North Korea                                          72
     4.19    Papua New Guinea                                     73
     4.20    Philippines                                          73
     4.21    Seychelles                                           74
     4.22    Singapore                                            75
     4.23    South Korea                                          75
     4.24    Sri Lanka                                            76
     4.25    Taiwan                                               77
     4.26    Thailand                                             78
     4.27    Vietnam                                              78
5       EUROPE & THE MIDDLE EAST                                  80
     5.1   Executive Summary                                      80
     5.2   Afghanistan                                            81
     5.3   Albania                                                82
     5.4   Andorra                                                82
     5.5   Armenia                                                83


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  5.6       Austria                                               84
  5.7       Azerbaijan                                            85
  5.8       Bahrain                                               85
  5.9       Belarus                                               86
  5.10      Belgium                                               87
  5.11      Bosnia and Herzegovina                                88
  5.12      Bulgaria                                              88
  5.13      Croatia                                               89
  5.14      Cyprus                                                90
  5.15      Czech Republic                                        90
  5.16      Denmark                                               91
  5.17      Estonia                                               92
  5.18      Finland                                               93
  5.19      France                                                94
  5.20      Georgia                                               95
  5.21      Germany                                               95
  5.22      Greece                                                96
  5.23      Hungary                                               97
  5.24      Iceland                                               98
  5.25      Iran                                                  99
  5.26      Iraq                                                 100
  5.27      Ireland                                              101
  5.28      Israel                                               101
  5.29      Italy                                                102
  5.30      Jordan                                               103
  5.31      Kazakhstan                                           104
  5.32      Kuwait                                               105
  5.33      Kyrgyzstan                                           106
  5.34      Latvia                                               106
  5.35      Lebanon                                              107
  5.36      Liechtenstein                                        108
  5.37      Lithuania                                            108
  5.38      Luxembourg                                           109
  5.39      Malta                                                110
  5.40      Moldova                                              110
  5.41      Monaco                                               111
  5.42      Norway                                               112
  5.43      Oman                                                 112
  5.44      Pakistan                                             113
  5.45      Palestine                                            114
  5.46      Poland                                               114
  5.47      Portugal                                             115
  5.48      Qatar                                                116
  5.49      Romania                                              116
  5.50      Russia                                               117
  5.51      San Marino                                           118
  5.52      Saudi Arabia                                         119
  5.53      Slovakia                                             120
  5.54      Slovenia                                             120
  5.55      Spain                                                121
  5.56      Sweden                                               122
  5.57      Switzerland                                          123
  5.58      Syrian Arab Republic                                 124


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     5.59      Tajikistan                                             125
     5.60      The Netherlands                                        126
     5.61      The United Arab Emirates                               127
     5.62      The United Kingdom                                     127
     5.63      Turkey                                                 128
     5.64      Turkmenistan                                           129
     5.65      Ukraine                                                130
     5.66      Uzbekistan                                             131
     5.67      Yemen                                                  132
6       LATIN AMERICA                                                 133
     6.1    Executive Summary                                         133
     6.2    Argentina                                                 134
     6.3    Belize                                                    135
     6.4    Bolivia                                                   136
     6.5    Brazil                                                    136
     6.6    Chile                                                     137
     6.7    Colombia                                                  138
     6.8    Costa Rica                                                139
     6.9    Ecuador                                                   140
     6.10   El Salvador                                               141
     6.11   French Guiana                                             141
     6.12   Guatemala                                                 142
     6.13   Guyana                                                    143
     6.14   Honduras                                                  143
     6.15   Mexico                                                    144
     6.16   Nicaragua                                                 145
     6.17   Panama                                                    146
     6.18   Paraguay                                                  147
     6.19   Peru                                                      148
     6.20   Suriname                                                  149
     6.21   The Falkland Islands                                      149
     6.22   Uruguay                                                   150
     6.23   Venezuela                                                 151
7       NORTH AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN                                 152
     7.1   Executive Summary                                          152
     7.2   Antigua and Barbuda                                        153
     7.3   Aruba                                                      154
     7.4   Barbados                                                   154
     7.5   Bermuda                                                    155
     7.6   Canada                                                     156
     7.7   Cuba                                                       157
     7.8   Dominica                                                   158
     7.9   Dominican Republic                                         158
     7.10  Greenland                                                  159
     7.11  Grenada                                                    160
     7.12  Guadeloupe                                                 161
     7.13  Haiti                                                      162
     7.14  Jamaica                                                    162
     7.15  Martinique                                                 163
     7.16  Puerto Rico                                                164
     7.17  St. Kitts and Nevis                                        165
     7.18  St. Lucia                                                  165


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     7.19      St. Vincent and the Grenadines                                         166
     7.20      The Bahamas                                                            167
     7.21      The British Virgin Islands                                             167
     7.22      The Cayman Islands                                                     168
     7.23      The Netherlands Antilles                                               169
     7.24      The U.S. Virgin Islands                                                169
     7.25      The United States                                                      170
     7.26      Trinidad and Tobago                                                    171
8       OCEANA                                                                        172
     8.1   Executive Summary                                                          172
     8.2   American Samoa                                                             173
     8.3   Australia                                                                  174
     8.4   Christmas Island                                                           175
     8.5   Cook Islands                                                               175
     8.6   Fiji                                                                       176
     8.7   French Polynesia                                                           176
     8.8   Guam                                                                       177
     8.9   Kiribati                                                                   178
     8.10  Marshall Islands                                                           178
     8.11  Micronesia Federation                                                      179
     8.12  Nauru                                                                      179
     8.13  New Caledonia                                                              180
     8.14  New Zealand                                                                180
     8.15  Niue                                                                       181
     8.16  Norfolk Island                                                             182
     8.17  Palau                                                                      182
     8.18  Solomon Islands                                                            183
     8.19  The Northern Mariana Island                                                183
     8.20  Tokelau                                                                    184
     8.21  Tonga                                                                      184
     8.22  Tuvalu                                                                     185
     8.23  Vanuatu                                                                    185
     8.24  Wallis and Futuna                                                          186
     8.25  Western Samoa                                                              186
9       DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS                        188
     9.1    Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                                 188
     9.2    ICON Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions                  189




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 Introduction                                                                                                         10


1     INTRODUCTION
1.1    OVERVIEW

This study covers the world outlook for wine, brandy, and brandy spirits across more than 200 countries. For each
year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in
question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These
comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models
which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are
created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details
at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The
study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products
involved.

This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in
virtually all of the 230 countries of the world). This study gives, however, 
								
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