The 2011-2016 World Outlook for
Veterinary Pharmaceutical Preparations of
Intravenous Solutions and Electrolytes
by
Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
Chaired Professor of Management Science
INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)
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About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.
Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.
About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.
Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.
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Contents v
Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION 10
1.1 Overview 10
1.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 10
1.3 The Methodology 11
1.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 12
1.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 13
1.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 13
1.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 14
1.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 14
1.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 15
1.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 15
2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 16
2.1 The Worldwide Market Potential 16
3 AFRICA 18
3.1 Executive Summary 18
3.2 Algeria 19
3.3 Angola 20
3.4 Benin 21
3.5 Botswana 21
3.6 Burkina Faso 22
3.7 Burundi 23
3.8 Cameroon 24
3.9 Cape Verde 25
3.10 Central African Republic 25
3.11 Chad 26
3.12 Comoros 27
3.13 Congo (formerly Zaire) 27
3.14 Cote d'Ivoire 28
3.15 Djibouti 29
3.16 Egypt 30
3.17 Equatorial Guinea 31
3.18 Ethiopia 31
3.19 Gabon 32
3.20 Ghana 33
3.21 Guinea 34
3.22 Guinea-Bissau 34
3.23 Kenya 35
3.24 Lesotho 36
3.25 Liberia 36
3.26 Libya 37
3.27 Madagascar 38
3.28 Malawi 39
3.29 Mali 39
3.30 Mauritania 40
3.31 Mauritius 41
3.32 Morocco 41
3.33 Mozambique 42
3.34 Namibia 43
3.35 Niger 43
3.36 Nigeria 44
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Contents vi
3.37 Republic of Congo 45
3.38 Reunion 46
3.39 Rwanda 47
3.40 Sao Tome E Principe 47
3.41 Senegal 48
3.42 Sierra Leone 49
3.43 Somalia 49
3.44 South Africa 50
3.45 Sudan 51
3.46 Swaziland 52
3.47 Tanzania 53
3.48 The Gambia 54
3.49 Togo 55
3.50 Tunisia 56
3.51 Uganda 57
3.52 Western Sahara 58
3.53 Zambia 58
3.54 Zimbabwe 59
4 ASIA & OCEANA 61
4.1 Executive Summary 61
4.2 American Samoa 62
4.3 Australia 63
4.4 Bangladesh 64
4.5 Bhutan 65
4.6 Brunei 65
4.7 Burma 66
4.8 Cambodia 67
4.9 China 67
4.10 Christmas Island 68
4.11 Cook Islands 69
4.12 Fiji 69
4.13 French Polynesia 70
4.14 Guam 71
4.15 Hong Kong 71
4.16 India 72
4.17 Indonesia 73
4.18 Japan 74
4.19 Kiribati 75
4.20 Laos 75
4.21 Macau 76
4.22 Malaysia 77
4.23 Maldives 78
4.24 Marshall Islands 78
4.25 Micronesia Federation 79
4.26 Mongolia 80
4.27 Nauru 81
4.28 Nepal 81
4.29 New Caledonia 82
4.30 New Zealand 83
4.31 Niue 84
4.32 Norfolk Island 84
4.33 North Korea 85
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Contents vii
4.34 Palau 86
4.35 Papua New Guinea 86
4.36 Philippines 87
4.37 Seychelles 88
4.38 Singapore 89
4.39 Solomon Islands 90
4.40 South Korea 90
4.41 Sri Lanka 91
4.42 Taiwan 92
4.43 Thailand 93
4.44 The Northern Mariana Island 94
4.45 Tokelau 95
4.46 Tonga 95
4.47 Tuvalu 96
4.48 Vanuatu 97
4.49 Vietnam 97
4.50 Wallis and Futuna 98
4.51 Western Samoa 99
5 EUROPE 100
5.1 Executive Summary 100
5.2 Albania 101
5.3 Andorra 102
5.4 Austria 103
5.5 Belarus 104
5.6 Belgium 105
5.7 Bosnia and Herzegovina 106
5.8 Bulgaria 107
5.9 Croatia 108
5.10 Cyprus 109
5.11 Czech Republic 109
5.12 Denmark 110
5.13 Estonia 111
5.14 Finland 112
5.15 France 113
5.16 Georgia 114
5.17 Germany 115
5.18 Greece 116
5.19 Hungary 117
5.20 Iceland 118
5.21 Ireland 119
5.22 Italy 119
5.23 Kazakhstan 120
5.24 Latvia 121
5.25 Liechtenstein 122
5.26 Lithuania 123
5.27 Luxembourg 123
5.28 Malta 124
5.29 Moldova 125
5.30 Monaco 125
5.31 Norway 126
5.32 Poland 127
5.33 Portugal 128
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5.34 Romania 129
5.35 Russia 130
5.36 San Marino 131
5.37 Slovakia 131
5.38 Slovenia 132
5.39 Spain 133
5.40 Sweden 134
5.41 Switzerland 135
5.42 The Netherlands 136
5.43 The United Kingdom 137
5.44 Ukraine 138
6 LATIN AMERICA 139
6.1 Executive Summary 139
6.2 Argentina 140
6.3 Belize 141
6.4 Bolivia 142
6.5 Brazil 143
6.6 Chile 144
6.7 Colombia 145
6.8 Costa Rica 146
6.9 Ecuador 147
6.10 El Salvador 148
6.11 French Guiana 148
6.12 Guatemala 149
6.13 Guyana 150
6.14 Honduras 150
6.15 Mexico 151
6.16 Nicaragua 152
6.17 Panama 153
6.18 Paraguay 154
6.19 Peru 155
6.20 Suriname 156
6.21 The Falkland Islands 156
6.22 Uruguay 157
6.23 Venezuela 158
7 NORTH AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN 159
7.1 Executive Summary 159
7.2 Antigua and Barbuda 160
7.3 Aruba 161
7.4 Barbados 162
7.5 Bermuda 162
7.6 Canada 163
7.7 Cuba 164
7.8 Dominica 165
7.9 Dominican Republic 165
7.10 Greenland 166
7.11 Grenada 167
7.12 Guadeloupe 168
7.13 Haiti 169
7.14 Jamaica 169
7.15 Martinique 170
7.16 Puerto Rico 171
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Contents ix
7.17 St. Kitts and Nevis 172
7.18 St. Lucia 172
7.19 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 173
7.20 The Bahamas 174
7.21 The British Virgin Islands 174
7.22 The Cayman Islands 175
7.23 The Netherlands Antilles 176
7.24 The U.S. Virgin Islands 176
7.25 The United States 177
7.26 Trinidad and Tobago 178
8 THE MIDDLE EAST 180
8.1 Executive Summary 180
8.2 Afghanistan 181
8.3 Armenia 182
8.4 Azerbaijan 183
8.5 Bahrain 184
8.6 Iran 185
8.7 Iraq 186
8.8 Israel 187
8.9 Jordan 188
8.10 Kuwait 188
8.11 Kyrgyzstan 189
8.12 Lebanon 190
8.13 Oman 190
8.14 Pakistan 191
8.15 Palestine 192
8.16 Qatar 192
8.17 Saudi Arabia 193
8.18 Syrian Arab Republic 194
8.19 Tajikistan 195
8.20 The United Arab Emirates 196
8.21 Turkey 196
8.22 Turkmenistan 197
8.23 Uzbekistan 198
8.24 Yemen 199
9 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 200
9.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 200
9.2 ICON Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 201
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Introduction 10
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 OVERVIEW
This study covers the worl