The 2011-2016 World Outlook for Institutional Furniture Manufacturing

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					       The 2011-2016 World Outlook for
     Institutional Furniture Manufacturing




                                          by
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                       Chaired Professor of Management Science
                     INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




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                                          About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.


                                          About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.


                                        Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




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Table of Contents
1       INTRODUCTION                                                                                   10
     1.1      Overview                                                                                 10
     1.2      What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                    10
     1.3      The Methodology                                                                          11
        1.3.1   Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                         12
        1.3.2   Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                        17
        1.3.3   Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                                      17
        1.3.4   Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                       17
        1.3.5   Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                              18
        1.3.6   Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                                   18
        1.3.7   Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities                                18
2       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                            19
     2.1   The Worldwide Market Potential                                                              19
3       AFRICA                                                                                         21
     3.1    Executive Summary                                                                          21
     3.2    Algeria                                                                                    22
     3.3    Angola                                                                                     23
     3.4    Benin                                                                                      24
     3.5    Botswana                                                                                   24
     3.6    Burkina Faso                                                                               25
     3.7    Burundi                                                                                    26
     3.8    Cameroon                                                                                   26
     3.9    Cape Verde                                                                                 27
     3.10   Central African Republic                                                                   28
     3.11   Chad                                                                                       28
     3.12   Comoros                                                                                    29
     3.13   Congo (formerly Zaire)                                                                     30
     3.14   Cote d'Ivoire                                                                              31
     3.15   Djibouti                                                                                   31
     3.16   Egypt                                                                                      32
     3.17   Equatorial Guinea                                                                          33
     3.18   Ethiopia                                                                                   33
     3.19   Gabon                                                                                      34
     3.20   Ghana                                                                                      35
     3.21   Guinea                                                                                     36
     3.22   Guinea-Bissau                                                                              36
     3.23   Kenya                                                                                      37
     3.24   Lesotho                                                                                    38
     3.25   Liberia                                                                                    38
     3.26   Libya                                                                                      39
     3.27   Madagascar                                                                                 40
     3.28   Malawi                                                                                     40
     3.29   Mali                                                                                       41
     3.30   Mauritania                                                                                 42
     3.31   Mauritius                                                                                  42
     3.32   Morocco                                                                                    43
     3.33   Mozambique                                                                                 44
     3.34   Namibia                                                                                    44
     3.35   Niger                                                                                      45
     3.36   Nigeria                                                                                    46

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     3.37      Republic of Congo                                  47
     3.38      Reunion                                            47
     3.39      Rwanda                                             48
     3.40      Sao Tome E Principe                                49
     3.41      Senegal                                            49
     3.42      Sierra Leone                                       50
     3.43      Somalia                                            51
     3.44      South Africa                                       51
     3.45      Sudan                                              52
     3.46      Swaziland                                          53
     3.47      Tanzania                                           53
     3.48      The Gambia                                         54
     3.49      Togo                                               55
     3.50      Tunisia                                            56
     3.51      Uganda                                             57
     3.52      Western Sahara                                     57
     3.53      Zambia                                             58
     3.54      Zimbabwe                                           59
4       ASIA & OCEANA                                             60
     4.1    Executive Summary                                     60
     4.2    American Samoa                                        61
     4.3    Australia                                             62
     4.4    Bangladesh                                            63
     4.5    Bhutan                                                64
     4.6    Brunei                                                64
     4.7    Burma                                                 65
     4.8    Cambodia                                              66
     4.9    China                                                 66
     4.10   Christmas Island                                      67
     4.11   Cook Islands                                          68
     4.12   Fiji                                                  68
     4.13   French Polynesia                                      69
     4.14   Guam                                                  70
     4.15   Hong Kong                                             70
     4.16   India                                                 71
     4.17   Indonesia                                             72
     4.18   Japan                                                 73
     4.19   Kiribati                                              74
     4.20   Laos                                                  74
     4.21   Macau                                                 75
     4.22   Malaysia                                              76
     4.23   Maldives                                              77
     4.24   Marshall Islands                                      77
     4.25   Micronesia Federation                                 78
     4.26   Mongolia                                              78
     4.27   Nauru                                                 79
     4.28   Nepal                                                 80
     4.29   New Caledonia                                         80
     4.30   New Zealand                                           81
     4.31   Niue                                                  82
     4.32   Norfolk Island                                        83
     4.33   North Korea                                           83


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     4.34      Palau                                                      84
     4.35      Papua New Guinea                                           85
     4.36      Philippines                                                85
     4.37      Seychelles                                                 86
     4.38      Singapore                                                  87
     4.39      Solomon Islands                                            87
     4.40      South Korea                                                88
     4.41      Sri Lanka                                                  89
     4.42      Taiwan                                                     89
     4.43      Thailand                                                   90
     4.44      The Northern Mariana Island                                91
     4.45      Tokelau                                                    92
     4.46      Tonga                                                      92
     4.47      Tuvalu                                                     93
     4.48      Vanuatu                                                    93
     4.49      Vietnam                                                    94
     4.50      Wallis and Futuna                                          94
     4.51      Western Samoa                                              95
5       EUROPE                                                            96
     5.1   Executive Summary                                              96
     5.2   Albania                                                        97
     5.3   Andorra                                                        98
     5.4   Austria                                                        98
     5.5   Belarus                                                        99
     5.6   Belgium                                                       100
     5.7   Bosnia and Herzegovina                                        101
     5.8   Bulgaria                                                      102
     5.9   Croatia                                                       103
     5.10  Cyprus                                                        103
     5.11  Czech Republic                                                104
     5.12  Denmark                                                       105
     5.13  Estonia                                                       106
     5.14  Finland                                                       106
     5.15  France                                                        107
     5.16  Georgia                                                       108
     5.17  Germany                                                       109
     5.18  Greece                                                        110
     5.19  Hungary                                                       111
     5.20  Iceland                                                       112
     5.21  Ireland                                                       113
     5.22  Italy                                                         113
     5.23  Kazakhstan                                                    114
     5.24  Latvia                                                        115
     5.25  Liechtenstein                                                 116
     5.26  Lithuania                                                     117
     5.27  Luxembourg                                                    117
     5.28  Malta                                                         118
     5.29  Moldova                                                       119
     5.30  Monaco                                                        119
     5.31  Norway                                                        120
     5.32  Poland                                                        121
     5.33  Portugal                                                      122


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     5.34      Romania                                              123
     5.35      Russia                                               124
     5.36      San Marino                                           125
     5.37      Slovakia                                             125
     5.38      Slovenia                                             126
     5.39      Spain                                                127
     5.40      Sweden                                               128
     5.41      Switzerland                                          129
     5.42      The Netherlands                                      130
     5.43      The United Kingdom                                   131
     5.44      Ukraine                                              132
6       LATIN AMERICA                                               133
     6.1    Executive Summary                                       133
     6.2    Argentina                                               134
     6.3    Belize                                                  135
     6.4    Bolivia                                                 136
     6.5    Brazil                                                  136
     6.6    Chile                                                   137
     6.7    Colombia                                                138
     6.8    Costa Rica                                              139
     6.9    Ecuador                                                 140
     6.10   El Salvador                                             141
     6.11   French Guiana                                           141
     6.12   Guatemala                                               142
     6.13   Guyana                                                  143
     6.14   Honduras                                                143
     6.15   Mexico                                                  144
     6.16   Nicaragua                                               145
     6.17   Panama                                                  146
     6.18   Paraguay                                                147
     6.19   Peru                                                    148
     6.20   Suriname                                                149
     6.21   The Falkland Islands                                    149
     6.22   Uruguay                                                 150
     6.23   Venezuela                                               151
7       NORTH AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN                               152
     7.1   Executive Summary                                        152
     7.2   Antigua and Barbuda                                      153
     7.3   Aruba                                                    154
     7.4   Barbados                                                 155
     7.5   Bermuda                                                  155
     7.6   Canada                                                   156
     7.7   Cuba                                                     157
     7.8   Dominica                                                 158
     7.9   Dominican Republic                                       158
     7.10  Greenland                                                159
     7.11  Grenada                                                  160
     7.12  Guadeloupe                                               161
     7.13  Haiti                                                    162
     7.14  Jamaica                                                  162
     7.15  Martinique                                               163
     7.16  Puerto Rico                                              164


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     7.17      St. Kitts and Nevis                                                    165
     7.18      St. Lucia                                                              165
     7.19      St. Vincent and the Grenadines                                         166
     7.20      The Bahamas                                                            167
     7.21      The British Virgin Islands                                             167
     7.22      The Cayman Islands                                                     168
     7.23      The Netherlands Antilles                                               169
     7.24      The U.S. Virgin Islands                                                169
     7.25      The United States                                                      170
     7.26      Trinidad and Tobago                                                    171
8       THE MIDDLE EAST                                                               172
     8.1    Executive Summary                                                         172
     8.2    Afghanistan                                                               173
     8.3    Armenia                                                                   174
     8.4    Azerbaijan                                                                175
     8.5    Bahrain                                                                   175
     8.6    Iran                                                                      176
     8.7    Iraq                                                                      177
     8.8    Israel                                                                    178
     8.9    Jordan                                                                    178
     8.10   Kuwait                                                                    179
     8.11   Kyrgyzstan                                                                180
     8.12   Lebanon                                                                   180
     8.13   Oman                                                                      181
     8.14   Pakistan                                                                  182
     8.15   Palestine                                                                 183
     8.16   Qatar                                                                     183
     8.17   Saudi Arabia                                                              184
     8.18   Syrian Arab Republic                                                      185
     8.19   Tajikistan                                                                186
     8.20   The United Arab Emirates                                                  186
     8.21   Turkey                                                                    187
     8.22   Turkmenistan                                                              188
     8.23   Uzbekistan                                                                188
     8.24   Yemen                                                                     189
9       DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS                        191
     9.1    Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                                 191
     9.2    ICON Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions                  192




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 Introduction                                                                                                         10


1     INTRODUCTION
1.1    OVERVIEW

This study covers the world outlook for institutional furniture manufacturing across more than 200 countries. For
each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country
in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These
comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models
which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: This econometric study covers the world outlook for institutional furniture manufacturing across more than 200 countries. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the 230 countries of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E., for institutional furniture manufacturing. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s regional and national markets. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
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