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					2035
THE CITy




FIVE
ChALLENGES
FOR ThE
FUTURE

C O N TA I N S I F ’ S 2 0 0 7 A N N UA L R E P O RT
              Publisher: Försäkringsbolaget If. Production: Tidningskompaniet AB, Stockholm.
    Print: Trydells tryckeri, Laholm. Printed on eco-friendly paper. Cover photo: Getty Images.


INTRO




How will our Nordic
cities look in 30 years?
This magazine’s theme is our Nordic cities in 2035. In five sections
and a discussion we attempt to get to grips with some of the most
important challenges our communities will come to face within
a generation. Scientists, writers and politicians help us spotlight
issues regarding how we will live and work, and who risks being
left behind.
  The great social changes we envisage and which are described
in part in this magazine place great demands on decision makers.
Changes to basic infrastructure take an enormously long time to
carry through. Therefore the discussion must start now.
  These are issues that involve all of us and many voices need to be
heard in the debate; elected officials, experts, representatives from
business, unions, special interest groups and individual citizens.
  As the leading Nordic insurance company with almost four
million customers, our central task is to work toward a society
in which citizens and companies can live and work in safety and
security.
  If therefore seeks an active role in the public debate surround-
ing the circumstances and demands the future will place on our
cities and Nordic societies in general.
  We will contribute with our know-how in creating secu-
rity for the individual, knowledge of the effects of climate
change, and the needs and challenges of industry.
  We hope that the magazine can be the starting point
for a broad discussion about how the Nordic City
should look a generation from now. We look for-
ward to an open and active discussion where every
part of our society has a voice.

                      Torbjörn Magnusson, If CEO



PS. The last pages of the magazine make up a sepa-
rate section that presents If and its 2007 annual re-
sults. Exciting reading too!




                                              PhOTO: ThRON ULLBERG      3
              THE CITY
There are more and more of us. We consume more, travel
    more, own more cars and larger homes than ever before.
 Technology makes the world a smaller place but increases
 social divides. how will all this affect life in our Nordic cit-
  ies when our children have grown up? What solutions will
   we need for the future’s five most important challenges?
YEAR 2035
1. How will we live? PAGE 6
2. How will we work? PAGE 10

3. How will we get about? PAGE 14

4. How will technology affect us? PAGE 18

5. Who will be left behind? PAGE 22
                           1

          ill we linven?will place big de-
    CHAllENGE

     How w Increased urba izatio   ments and                     tial environ
                                       mands    on city residen                           atter of
                                                         But  it’s not just a m
                                       infrastructures.                           ve all about
                                                        gether, it is abo
                                       living closer to                                  th climate
                                                         and  adapting to bo
                                        living smarter,            : SI D SE l H JE lM
                                                                                       E

                                        and ne  w lifestyles. TEXT




                      T
                                     he Scandinavian dream of life in the country
                                     with a house and garden is disappearing. More
                                     and more of us have different dreams – modern,
                                     minimalist city flats, neighbourliness in old city
                                     districts or penthouse apartments with views
                                     across the rooftops.
                         The past few years have seen urbanization increase dra-
                      matically in Scandinavia. And the trend continues. In the
                      coming years ever more of us will move to big city regions,
                      experts predict.
                         Niels Bøttger Rasmussen at the Copenhagen Institute for
                      Future Studies puts it like this:
                         “We thought the internet would liberate us from the city
                      and that we would to a greater degree work from the country.
                      But we see that people seek the social life, experiences and
                      creativity that urban areas offer.
                         “Urbanization will continue, and one result of this is that
                                             in future we will build vertically. We will
    “Urbanization                            have many more high-rise buildings
                                             than today,” says the futurologist.              FlEXIBlE HOUSING
     will continue.                                                                           We will place higher
                                                                                              demands on flexible
     [---] We will                             Urbanization will bring with it many
                                               new challenges. Not least when it comes
                                                                                              housing. Movable walls
                                                                                              and replaceable mod-
     have many                                 to infrastructure, is the opinion of           ules meet the needs of
                                                                                              different family constel-
                                               Björn Wellhagen, Head of Housing at the
     more high-rise                            Swedish Building Industry Association.
                                                                                              lations.


     buildings than                               “City densification will mean that
                                               more of us are disturbed by noise. We
     today”                                    need to find new solutions so that noise
    Niels Bøttger Rasmussen, Copenhagen        regulations do not put a stop to building
    Institute for Future Studies, Denmark      in new areas. New types of cars will solve
                                               some of the noise problems, as will types
                        of road surface other than today’s asphalt.”
                            Wellhagen believes that many will demand more flexible
                        housing solutions than those we are used to today.
                            “Different family circumstances, e.g. shared child custody,
                        will mean that room division will have to be adapted.”
                            Ipod dwellings is what Niels Bøttger Rasmussen calls to-
                        morrow’s flexible homes.
                            “We envisage a module system where units are attached or
                        detached as circumstances require. In the case of a di-
                        vorce it would be possible to divide a dwelling into two
                        separate units. In this way parents can share in the care


6
                                         MORE HIGH-RISE
                                         BUIlDINGS
                                         Urbanization is growing
                                         fast in Nordic cities.
                                         One direct effect will be
                                         the need to build taller
                                         buildings. We will see
                                         many more skyscrapers.




  ENERGy SElF-SUFFICIENT
  Passive houses that produce all the
  energy they consume will be the
  standard thirty years from now.




INTEllIGENT HOUSES
Homes will become
technologically more
advanced and remote
control of lighting, heat-
ing and other appliances
will be the norm.
                                                                               WOOD MAKES A
                                                                               COMEBACK
                                                                               The traditional Nordic
                                                                               wooden house is enjoy-
                                                                               ing a new spring. Better
                                                                               building techniques
                                        MORE GREEN SPACES                      means high-rise build-
                                        Climate change makes it                ings of four stories,
                                        all the more important                 maybe more, in wood.
                                        that we preserve green
                                        areas and riverbanks.
                                        Streams and parks will
                                        reduce the heat effect
                                        in cities.




                                                                     ILLUSTRATION: SVENSKA GRAFIKBYRÅN



                                                                                                          7
   CHAllENGE 1                  HOW WIll WE lIVE?




                           of the children even though they no longer live together.              they consume are already being built, but on a very small
                              “And when the children reach their teens a separate section can     scale. In thirty years we will see passive houses everywhere,”
                           be arranged where they can enjoy greater independence, while at        says Björn Wellhagen.
                           the same time their needs for parental proximity are met.”                 “The need for energy savings goes hand-in-hand with the
                                                                                                  urbanization trend,” stresses Erling Dokk Holm, doctoral
                           “Climate change will further intensify urbanization since              candidate at The Oslo School of Architecture and Design.
                           we will be forced to reconsider both land and transport plan-              “Urbanization is tremendously energy saving. An apart-
                           ning,” says Jonas Vevatne, a scientist at the Cicero Center for        ment building requires minimal energy for heating in com-
                           International Climate and Environmental Research at Oslo               parison to a detached house.”
                           University.                                                                Climate scientist Jonas Vevatne believes that regard
                               “We must utilize land in a better way in order to reduce           for energy consumption will in future lead us to living in
      Björn Wellhagen,     our transport requirements and our energy consumption, but             smaller homes than we do today. And we will produce all
Head of Housing Issues,    climate change will also mean that we make use of land sur-            the energy for our homes ourselves.
Swedish Buiding Indus-
        try Federation.    faces differently. More precipitation will                                                         “Even in our part of the world we
                           mean an increased risk of flooding in cit-
                           ies, and it will become more important
                                                                       “More precipitation                                will be able to build homes that are
                                                                                                                          energy self-sufficient all year round,”
                           to preserve green areas and riverbanks.      will mean increased                               he says.
                           Streams and rivers need to be opened up,                                                           “Climate change will affect
                           and parks and green areas will reduce the    risk of flooding                                  how we build and where we build.
                           heat effect in cities.
                               “Warmer summers mean that we
                                                                        in cities, and it                                 Not least here in Denmark,” says
                                                                                                                          Niels Bøttger Rasmussen. “In some
                           will have to build houses and facades        will become more                                  of the country’s communities there
                           differently,” the climate scientist says.
                               Advanced technology will become
                                                                        important to                                      is reason to fear that the sea level will
                                                                                                                          rise as has been predicted in various
                           a catchphrase associated with many           preserve green                                    scenarios. House prices will fall rap-
                           future homes.                                                                                  idly in these areas.”
Jonas Vevatne, scientist
at the Cicero Center for       “We have been talking about intel-       areas”                                                Jonas Vevatne points out that
  International Climate
 and Environmental Re-
                           ligent houses for quite a while, but up       Jonas Vevatne, scientist at the Cicero           large carbon dioxide emissions from
  search, Oslo, Norway.    until now many of the technologies            Center for International Climate and Environ-    steel and cement works mean we will
                                                                         mental Research, Oslo, Norway
                           have been too complicated to be ex-                                                            use concrete as a building material
                           ploited in full. In thirty years the techni-                                                   much less as a building material to a
                           cal solutions will be much simpler.                                    much lesser extent.
                               “Everyone will be able to switch on their ovens from the               “Wood and wooden construction may become much more
                           underground on their way home,” says Björn Wellhagen.                  common, even for larger dwellings up to four stories high.
                               New technologies also bring new possibilities when it              We must breathe new life into the Norwegian wooden house
                           comes to buildings themselves.                                         tradition and take a good look at Germany and Austria, who
                               “We will have many more prefabricated solutions, so that           are far ahead of us when it comes to building energy- and
                           the actual building process becomes more industrialized.”              climate-friendly wooden houses,” says Jonas Vevatne. “Local
                                                                                                  climate variations will also have a big impact on home build-
                           Whether we choose new or old, city living or country life,             ing,” he emphasizes.
                           our future homes must be energy self-sufficient.                           “We will no longer locate houses up on hills and heights,
                               “Passive houses that themselves produce all the energy             but will choose places where homes are less exposed to strong



                           Urbanization in figures
                              SWEDEN                            NORWAy                           DENMARK                              FINlAND
                              Today there are 1.9 million       The Oslo region has just         The Copenhagen region has            Today 1.3 million people
                              people in Greater Stock-          over 800,000 inhabitants         today 1.6 million inhabitants.       live in the helsinki region.
                              holm. In 2035 there will be       today. In 2030 1 million         By 2030 there will be more           The number of inhabitants
                              10.2 million Swedes, and if       are expected to live in          than 1.7 million Copenhag-           is expected to rise to1.4
                              the rate of urbanization con-     Greater Oslo. 635 000 of         ers. The population of one           million by 2016.
                              tinues to increase at today’s     these will live in the Oslo      third of Danish communities
                              pace Greater Stockholm will       municipality.                    is estimated to decline during
                              have just over 2.5 million                                         the same period.
                              inhabitants.

                                                                                                      Sources: www.scb.se, www.rtk.sll.se, www.ssb.no and www.dst.dk.

    
winds. Most importantly, the building sector and its entrepre-
neurs must take into consideration the fact that we will have
                                                                   “I believe that [---]
a damper climate with more precipitation. Damp damage is            we will demolish
already a big problem in today’s climate.”
                                                                    old housing to make
Thicker walls, better insulation and triple glazing will prob-
ably be standard in future buildings.
                                                                    room for the new”
                                                                       Niels Bøttger Rasmussen, Copenhagen Institute
   “Energy standards are now being set for new buildings,              for Future Studies, Denmark
but these make up only a small part of the total housing stock.
We will see the biggest differences when it comes to upgrad-
ing existing housing,” says Björn Wellhagen.
   “The biggest effects of energy-saving measures will be                                                                                      Niels Bøttger
achieved primarily through the total renovation of homes and                                                                                   Rasmussen,
                                                                                                                                               futurologist.
apartment buildings from the 1960s and 1970s,” he says.
   Futurologist Niels Bøttger Rasmussen thinks we will take
more drastic steps to save energy.
   “I believe that to a large extent we will demolish old hous-
ing to make room for the new.
   “There is such a great difference in running costs for an old
home compared to a new one. The money used for energy
can be better spent on a new house or a better location.”                  The future is already here
                                                                           Energy consumption will probably be the biggest change in our homes
The proportion of elderly people in the population will                    of the future. A very large proportion of us will be energy self-sufficient in
increase dramatically in the years ahead. But dedicated homes              respect of our own homes.
for the elderly will not be a big phenomenon in future hous-                  There are residential areas today that already live up to some of the
ing markets, according to experts.                                         standards that will be set in the future.
   “We have discussed building homes for the elderly for a
long while, but we see that the opposite is happening. More                Hammarby Sjöstad in Stockholm (Sweden)
and more people postpone their old age, and in any case do                 A run-down harbour and industrial area that has been redeveloped and
                                                                           transformed into a modern, sustainable city district. hammarby Sjöstad
not want to live in homes for the elderly.
                                                                           is a spearhead when it comes to adapting to the environment (fig.1). For
   “In 2030, the 70-year-olds will have been born in 1960.                 further info, please visit www.hammarbysjostad.se.
These are people who are used to exercising control over their
own lives and who will want to continue with that even as                  Solar Energy in homes (Germany)
elderly pensioners.                                                        Rolf Disch is considered one of the world’s most prominent architects in
   “One can well imagine that a number of them will enter                  the field of solar energy exploitation in homes. he is the man behind a
into agreements whereby they receive economic support to                   number of houses that not only are energy self-sufficient, but are also able
                                                                           to generate surplus energy (fig 2).
exchange their homes for dwellings better suited to their
                                                                           For further info, please visit www.solarseidlung.de and www.rolfdisch.de.
future needs,” says Niels Bøttger Rasmussen.
   “To the extent that we need help and support when we                    Pilestredet Park in Oslo (Norway)
get old, our needs will be met by technical solutions in our               The old National hospital in Central Oslo has been converted to a residen-
own homes,” thinks Erling Dokk Holm.                                       tial area. City ecology, recycled materials and energy saving in both homes
   “We will have a lot more diagnostic and other medical                   and surroundings were central issues. Read more at www.gronnevaner.no.
equipment at home, so that we can stay at home longer.
It will be more profitable than building nursing homes for
everyone.”                                                         1                                   2

However, urbanization and energy saving will not com-
pletely kill off the dream of country living, experts say.
    “New technologies and new working methods mean that
there is no longer any clear demarcation between work and
leisure. Many will have two homes, e.g. a flat in town and a
house in the country, without the one necessarily being home
and the other purely for leisure.
    “A great many will choose to live so that they get the best
of both worlds, throbbing inner-city life and the peace of the
countryside,” says Erling Dokk Holm. ●



                                                                                                                                                               
            ll we woerka? ell-educated, fastidious anfeet.
                             2
     CHAllENGE

      How wi Tomorrow’s employ e is w bour market at his d
                                                                                 la
                                                              r with a global                  population are
                                          mo bile city dwelle                y  and an ageing
                                                         new technolog                            ndations up.
                                          Open borders,                            et from its fou
                                                              the labour mark                   will need to
                                          alre ady reshaping                   ractive in 2035
                                                            want to be att
                                          Employers who                            AR
                                                               . TEXT: TOBIAS HAMM
                                           focus on flexibility




                       A
                                           nneli, 16 years old, has never set foot in the
                                           USA. Nevertheless, she socializes with a
                                           handful of Americans of the same age every
                                           day. And not just Americans, it must be said.
                                           From the girl’s room in a house just south of
                                           Gothenburg she chats via online games with
                         friends who live practically everywhere around the world.
                             “The time difference means that it can be a bit difficult
                         to stay in contact with Indians or Australians, for example.
                         But on the other hand it seems like many of them spend 24
                         hours a day in front of the computer. I can contact the whole
                         world from here!” she says, as she quickly flips through her
                         prodigious address book.
                             Despite the distance in miles, time and culture it would
                         be no big surprise if some of Anneli’s friends today will be               FlEXIBIlITy
                         her colleagues of tomorrow.                                                Future employers must
                                                                                                    offer both personal
                             “I often have more in common with an online gamer in
                                                                                                    development and flex-
                         the States than I do with a classmate at home. And of course               ible employment terms
                                            I would really prefer to work in a global set-          to remain attractive for
                                                                                                    future employees.
     “In the future                         ting in the future. Doing what I have no idea
                                            of at the moment; just that I want a job that
      many jobs will                        I will enjoy, that will allow me to develop
                                            and to socialize with like-minded people.”
      necessarily                               It is an outlook that in every respect makes
      have been                             her representative of a generation of youth
                                            currently taking its first steps out into the
      taken over by                         adult world. For the children of the nineties,
      machines”                             “quality of life” is most important of all. A
                                            good job is a job that affords meaning, sat-
      Stefan Fölster, Confederation of      isfaction and good prospects of personal de-
      Swedish Enterprise
                                            velopment – it is not primarily about income,
                                            status and a space in the executive car park.
                             “This is a trend that is equally as distinct as it is stable in
                         our surveys. As living standards rise people become more and
                         more individualistic – no matter where in the world we look.
                         Today’s youth places higher demands on jobs, society and life
                         in general,” says Daniel Salzer, analyst at the Kairos Future
                         international research and consulting company in Sweden.

                        This is a portent that future employers have every reason to
                        heed. In 2035 Anneli and her generation’s peers will form
                        the middle-aged powers-that-be in a global economy
                        that by any measure will differ radically from the one
                        we know today.


10
                                                            1970                2006               2035
THE POPUlATION IS AGEING             Denmark                1,069               7,197            32,397
   NUMBER OF PEOPlE OlDER THAN 95
                                     Finland              no data               5,424            19,663
                                     Sweden                 2,109             15,086             26,533
                                     Norway                 1,243               5,714            11,262




                                                                                        MIGRATION
                                                                                        The Nordic countries
                                                                                        will need foreign la-
                                                                                        bour to maintain their
                                                                                        living standards. But
                                                                                        highly-skilled Nordic
                                                                                        citizens will also seek
                                                                                        employment abroad.




                                       EFFICIENCy
                                       High technology equip-
                                       ment will replace human
                                       labour, but will also
                                       reduce set-up times and
                                       journeys. For example,
                                       surgical procedures car-
                                       ried out remotely will be
                                       more common.




                                                         AGEING BOOM
                                                         A large group of people in
                                                         middle age delivers high
  GlOBAl THINKING                                        productivity. There will
  As easily accessible informa-                          however be a lack of young
  tion and communications                                labour, but more people will
  shrink our world, so will work-                        work much later in life.
  ing and living in other parts of
  the world become
  accessible too.



                                                                                                                  ILLUSTRATION: SVENSKA GRAFIKBYRÅN



                                                                                                                                                      11
 CHAllENGE 2                                               HOW WIll WE WORK?




                                                          Many of the changes are already well on the way to be-                 said to measure the number of people an employed individual
                         PhOTO: ThOMAS CARLGREN




                                                      coming established But first a few words of caution: making                must, apart from himself, support through his income.
                                                      predictions about the future is a bit like navigating through                  In every Nordic country ageing populations will drive up
                                                      pea-souper fog – even though you can see your forefinger in                the economic dependency ratio significantly in the coming
                                                      front of you, you have no idea where it’s pointing. Research-              decades. The demographic spikes are the biggest in Sweden
                                                      ers who want to make pronouncements about tomorrow                         and will climb to above 0.85 in 30 years – an increase of over
                                                      need first and foremost to find relatively predictable trends,             20 per cent compared to today.
                                                      and only then build on them with more hypothetical projec-                     “The whole labour market age distribution will have
                                                      tions.                                                                     changed by then. The large middle-aged bulge will mean high
                                                          Fortunately labour market research has been blessed with               productivity and good fiscal income, which is advantageous.
   Thomas lindh, Pro-
                                                      just such a variable: demographics.                                        At the same time, the 1940s baby-boomers will be very old,
    fessor of National                                    The population pyramid’s unhurried pace of change acts as a            which will place great pressure on care services in every coun-
Economy, Institute for                                compass in the fog of research. So even though they know rela-             try,” says Thomas Lindh, Professor of National Economics at
Future Studies, Stock-
        holm, Sweden.                                 tively little about how society will look in 2035, researchers can         The Institute for Future Studies in Stockholm, Sweden.
                                                      tell us much more about the age groups that will live in it.
                                                          “Demographic change is tremendously important for the                  The age bulge will not pass by unnoticed. One immediate
                                                      economy, not just in the Nordic region and Europe, but for                 consequence is that it will be difficult to attract a young work
                                                      the entire Western world,” says Marianne Røed, scientist at                force to perform the menial tasks involved in e.g. caring for
                                                      the Oslo Institute for Social Research in Norway.                          the aged. Another is that those who actually work will begin
                                                          In 2035 today’s baby-boomers from the 1940s will have                  to do so at a higher age than today.
                                                      reached the upper pensioner age level. Those born in the 60s                   Most economists calculate that the pensionable age will
                                                      and 70s will be next in line to clock out from work. Remaining             be moved upward gradually, keeping pace with an ageing
                                                      in the most highly productive age groups is the third distinct             workforce. It will probably also be individual: by 2035 we
                                                      “spike” in the birth graph. Anneli and her 1990s peers. They               will no longer talk about a specific retirement age. People
                                                      will lead an economy that is significantly older than today’s.             will work as long as they are able to and find it appropriate,
                                                                                                                                 then they will phase themselves out – often over a period
                                                      Economists often talk about the “economic dependency                       of several years.
                                                      ratio” as the relationship between the number of gainfully                     “We will not just be older in the future, but healthier too.
                                                      employed individuals in a country and the number who for                   A higher retirement age is one of several ‘productivity re-
                                                      reasons of age are outside the workforce. The ratio can be                 serves’ we can rely on as the workforce diminishes. Another
                                                                                                                                 is automation. In the future, many jobs will necessarily have
                                                                                                                                 been taken over by machines,” says Stefan Fölster, Head of
                                                                                                                                 Economics at the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise.
     AGE DISTRIBUTION IN                                                                                                             He provides as examples such widely different careers as
     NORDIC COUNTRIES                                                                                                            store check-out workers and surgeons – both are occupations
                                                                                                                                 that have already been partially automated, but still have the
     2007/2035                                                                                                                   larger part of their “robotization” potential ahead of them.
        Age
                                                                                                     2007                        The third big productivity reserve is also the one most dis-
       80+                                                                                                                       cussed: immigration. In every estimation of future labour
                                                                                                     2035
                                                                                                                                 markets, increased immigration stands out as an almost ab-
    65–79                                                                                                                        solute certainty. There is no doubt whatsoever that we will
                                                                                                                                 need to import labour in order to maintain our standard of
    50–64                                                                                                                        living.
                                                                                                                                     Where such immigrants will arrive from is however a
                                                                                                                                 very hot potato indeed. Because wars and political conflicts
    25–49
                                                                                                                                 play such a large role, it is extremely difficult to predict.
                                                                                                                                 The problem is accentuated by the fact that every Euro-
    15–24                                                                                                                        pean country has the same dilemma. Opening the borders
                                                                                                                                 to highly-educated Poles and Estonians is not a sustainable
       0–14                                                                                                       Number of
                                                                                                                  people (mil-
                                                                                                                                 solution, as these professional categories will be in short
                                                                                                                  lions)         supply in their home countries.
              0    1                              2        3       4       5        6        7        8       9                      This will lead to immigration from, among other places,
                                                                                                                                 China, India and North Africa – “continental migration” from
    The proportion of people over 65 will be significantly greater in 2035 than today.
                                                                                                                                 countries with large, young populations. At the same time,
                                                                               Source: Nordic Council of Ministers.              there are very few researchers who reckon with a significant
                                                                                                                                 increase in net immigration to Europe and the Nordic region.


  1
 Globalization will also mean that many westerners will move
 abroad for employment.
                                                                       5 new careers in 2035
 On the whole only one thing is certain: the future will mean
 more mobility – in both directions.                                   1. PERSONAlITy COORDINATOR
     In this global tug-of-war for expertise it is above all the big      Works at better utilizing every staff member’s
 city regions that will gain the greatest benefit. Future Nordic          unique personality within an organization.
 “hotspots” will to a much larger extent be areas around uni-
 versity cities and national capitals.                                 2. IMMIGRATION SUPPORT
     “The big cities of Europe, Asia and North America will be            The increased proportion of foreign migrant workers
 the engines of future growth. This is natural as economic devel-         necessary in the future will require flexible support.   Stefan Fölster, Head of
                                                                                                                                   Economics, Confed-
 opment is driven ever more by ideas and creativity. Cities will          Immigrants will need qualified help in tailor-made
                                                                                                                                   eration of Swedish
 attract the young from different backgrounds, cultures and dis-          language courses, cultural education, living and         Enterprise.
 ciplines. The greater the variety, the more attractive for compa-        help in navigating around authorities and society in
                                                                          general.
 nies and the able,” says Patrik Ström, researcher at Gothenburg
 University’s School of Business, Economics and Law.
     And so we are back in Gothenburg, with Anneli and her             3. AGE ADVISOR
 global network of night-owl online gamers. What will their               In 2035 people will continue working up into their
 life choices mean for tomorrow’s employers?                              70s, 80s and even their 90s. how will a 20-year-old
     “Today’s youth are much more kindly disposed toward                  work together with an 85-year-old in the group?
 change than their elders. They want employment in dynamic                how will generational differences be managed? This
                                                                          profession has the experts.
 workplaces where they can themselves control their time and
 skills development. If they do not get the recognition they
 deserve, they will vote with their feet,” says Daniel Salzer at       4. CAR IT SPECIAlIST
 Kairos Future in Sweden.                                                 Cars are more and more like computers. It will no
     This will lead to increased labour market mobility, he               longer be parts that need replacing, but rather
 thinks. And also to more distinct profiling between various              software that will need updating. Less dirt under        Marianne Røed,
 employers. As both products and work assignments become                  the fingernails and a higher education will be two       researcher, Oslo
                                                                          characteristics.                                         Institute for Social
 more and more alike, success will be defined by how well a                                                                        Research, Norway.
 company succeeds in providing some form of added value to
 its customers and employees. In 2035 it will be responsible,          5. EXPERIENCE STRATEGIST
 ethical employers who will succeed most.                                 The need to make experience accessible increases
                                                                          when staff members are ever more widespread and
 But perhaps the most important future factor can be                      separated by geography, time and smaller projects.
 summed up with a completely different word: flexibility. As              When new problems arise, the experience strate-
                                                                          gist can locate cross references in a database and
 wealth increases, so too will our demands to work in ways
                                                                          provide support, find solutions and create strategy
 that suit us best. The halcyon days of permanent company                 suggestions.
 employment will probably be a thing of past. The future will
 mean new, individually adapted forms of employment.                   Footnote: The above occupations are inspired by the World
     “Trends show that time is becoming all the more valuable.         Future Society report “Future Careers” from 2005.
 This will encourage companies to better utilize their employee’s
 working hours. The working week will be more flexible, with
 employees working when they are alert and interested instead
 of just the usual 9 to 5. We will also see IT systems developed to
 reduce the amount of ‘dead time’ at work – e.g. time allocated to
 unproductive meetings and time-consuming administration,” says
 Stefan Fölster at the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise.●


“The big cities of Europe, Asia and
 North America will be the engines
 of future growth. This is natural as
 economic development is driven
 ever more by ideas and creativity”
 Patrik Ström, scientist the University of Gothenburg School of
 Business, Economics and law, Sweden



                                                                                                                                                    13
                                                       CAR TRAINS
                                                       In order to reduce
                                                       emissions and create
                                                       flexible traffic flows,
                                                       cars on their way in
                                                       and out of cities will
                                                       be connected together
                                                       like train carriages.




                                                                                 PEDESTRIAN PRECINCTS
                                                                                 limited motor traffic in
                                                                                 city centres will provide
                                                                                 pedestrians car-free areas.




         UNDERGROUND
         TRAFFIC
         Heavy city through-
         traffic and large
         goods deliveries will                                                                                 NEW AIRCRAFT
         be moved to under-                                                                                    Turbo-prop aircraft
         ground roads.                                                                                         will replace jets for
                                         NO DRIVER                                                             intra Nordic flights.
                                         Driverless transport systems
                                         will be a reality in future
                                         city traffic. It will probably
                                         have its own infrastructure
                                         underground or on rails.




     ILLUSTRATION: SVENSKA GRAFIKBYRÅN



14
             CHallenge
                                 3

            How will we ge
                                    t around?
                  In the 1950s w
                                e beli                           eved we would
                                      in hovercraft b                                        all be driving a
                                                        y now. When to                                       round
                                      traffic situation                           day’s experts p
                                                          in 2035 they a                               redict the
                                     No hovercraft.                                re a little more
                                                        On the contrary                                 careful.
                                     same – it will                                 things will be m
                                                      instead be a m                                      uch the
                                     changes. TexT: Mik                        atter of small b
                                                        ko Ta ivai n en                               ut important
                                                                        an d M ik ae l
                                                                                       li pp   M an




                                                 S
                                                               iri rubs the sleep from her eyes. It’s 6:43 in the
publiC TRanspoRT
in 2035 everyone will
                                                               morning and she has just dropped the kids off at
have access to public                                          day care. In seventeen minutes she will be at work.
transport timeta-                                              But right now she is behind the wheel, heading
bles via their mobile
phones. at the bus stop,                                       in to Helsinki.
we will use mobile                                                 This might well be 2008, except for one small,
phones to check when                               fascinating detail.
the next bus will arrive.
                                                      While her car speeds along at 45 mph, Siri tunes in her
                                                   favourite radio programme, puts both hands behind her head
                                                   and closes her eyes for a few moments.
                                                      The year is not 2008, but 2035.
                                                      On the roads into our Nordic cities we see a new kind of
                                                   traffic, with cars connected together like the carriages of a
                                                   train. They stay linked as long as they are all heading in the
 MoRe Toll Roads                                   same direction. Once in the city throng they unlink and make
 More toll roads and charges                       their individual ways to their final destinations.
 will be introduced to limit
 traffic, not just in the cen-
 tres but also in the areas                        Connecting cars to form trains reduces traffic jams as traffic
 surrounding big cities.                           flow capacities increase. More cars can travel in one lane over
                                                   a shorter period.
                                                       “Moreover, car trains create less wind resistance than indi-
                                                   vidual cars, which has a positive effect on fuel consumption,”
                                                   says Henrik Gudmundsson.
                                                       He is a scientist at Denmark’s
                                                   Transport Research Institute,
                                                                                        “Car trains create less
                                                   and the man behind the vision.        wind resistance”
                                                       Henrik Gudmundsson, just
                                                                                           Henrik gudmundsson, scientist at
                                                   like most scientists and experts        denmark’s Transport Research institute
                                                   who comment in this article,
                                                   thinks that the interesting thing is not whether we will travel
                                                   to work privately or publicly in 2035, but how the two alter-
                                                   natives will have developed.
                                                       “We will use what suits our purposes best. Private cars will
                                                   still be around; we will need them for weekly shopping or
                                                   trips to the country. But if you live in the city most of your
                                                   travel will be by public transport,” says Ida Kristoffersson,
                                                   who is carrying out research in traffic simulation at the De-
                                                   partment of Transport and Economics at the Royal Technical
                                                   High School, KTH, in Stockholm.
                                                       There are two main roads to explore; private and
                                                   public transport. Let’s begin with private transport.


                                                                                                                                    15
   CHAllENGE 3                    HOW WIll WE GET AROUND?




                               And now is a good time to put an end to a myth: those              dioxide as early as 2012, so by 2035 it is reasonable to assume
                            who predict the end of the motor car will have to wait a              this will be the norm.
                            long time.                                                               “My vision is to have a module that can attach to a car, to
                               But when our cars of the future drive into and around              make it larger whenever needs be,” she says.
                            town, it must be in a smarter way than today. Siri, in our ex-
                            ample above, chose the car train. Some of her colleagues will        That is where the first road, private transport, may lead
                            maybe choose the solution that Ida Kristoffersson at KTH in          us.
                            Stockholm insists is most probable: car pooling.                         But how will public transport develop?
                               Really big car pools, as opposed to the small ones we see             Ida Kristoffersson predicts that public transport will have
                            today in Sweden.                                                     grown significantly by 2035. The process has already be-
                               It works demonstrably well in Switzerland. Increase the           gun, with so-called congestion charges in Stockholm slowly
  Ida Kristoffersson, De-
  partment of Transport
                            pool size and the problems with lack of vehicles and compli-         getting inhabitants to leave the car at home or make other
   and Economics, Royal     cated bookings disappear.                                            changes to their habits. But for public transport to be able
Institute of Technology,       “It can mean a car pool for an entire city, where people          to expand further, Ida Kristoffersson and scientist Henrik
              Stockholm.
                            can pick up and drop off cars at different places. A bit like        Gudmundsson believe that a lot of effort must be put into
                            the loaner bikes that are available in a number of cities,” says     comfort, safety and frequency. How often trains and busses
                            Ida Kristoffersson.                                                  run, that is.
                                                                                                                            These days there are internet-based
                            Everything indicates an increase                                                            timetable services where travelers can
                            in wealth over the next 30 years        “Heavy through-                                     get tips about what combination of
                            with the car maintaining its posi-
                            tion as a lifestyle attribute and status
                                                                     traffic will most                                  bus, train and underground best suits
                                                                                                                        just their journey. By 2035 it will be
                            symbol.                                  likely be moved                                    even easier to plan a trip as everyone will
                               However, it is likely that the
                            car will be replaced to an extent,
                                                                     beneath the cities”                                have access to these timetables via their
                                                                                                                        mobile phones. Travelers will be able to
                            or complemented, by smaller ve-            Henrik Gudmundsson, scientist at                 check in real time when the next bus will
                                                                       Denmark’s Transport Research Institute
                            hicles.                                                                                     arrive at the stop.
 Petri Tapio, researcher,      Lecturer Petri Tapio, specialist in                                                          According to a simulation performed
         Finland Futures    traffic issues at the Finland Futures Research Centre, believes      by Ida Kristoffersson at KTH in Stockholm, prices will not
        Research Centre.
                            we will soon see bicycles equipped with windshields, to afford       play a great part in the changeover from car to public trans-
                            cyclists better protection.                                          port.
                               Another idea is a new type of vehicle that straddles the              Free public transport attracts only those who otherwise
                            divide between car and moped, somewhat comparable to                 would walk or cycle.
                            today’s Vespas.                                                          “Comfort weighs more than price. Many are willing to
                               Ida Kristoffersson also believes in smaller vehicles. Today,      pay what it costs to get modern life to mesh, and the same
                            on average, there are one and a half people in every car – which     will still be true in 2035,” she says.
                            makes an estate car a lot of dead weight to drive around.                Petri Tapio also believes in the positive influence of con-
                            She believes that punitive levies on car manufacturers will          gestion charges.
                            be significant in bringing about change. The EU is planning              Perhaps this will spread outside of the big city centers – for
                            to introduce such costs for cars that emit too much carbon           example on heavily-trafficked motorways. However, he points
                                                                                                 out that the charges will not reach full effect until people see
                                                                                                 just how much they are paying on each occasion.
                                                                                                     “Most effective would be if every charge was shown on a
                                                                                                 screen in the vehicle. Bills that arrive in the mail do not have
                                                                                                 the same impact as direct payment,” he says.
                                                                                                     A complementary method of effectively reducing city
                                                                                                 center traffic is to limit the number of parking spaces.
                                                                                                     “Free parking will decrease. Why should companies or
                                                                                                 authorities invest in multi-storey car parks when only a few
                                                                                                 employees use them? An alternative would be to provide
                                                                                                 public transport tickets as an employment benefit,” says Petri
                                                                                                 Tapio.

                                                                                                  Ida Kristoffersson believes that the train will play a bigger
                                                                                                  part in longer journeys.
                                                                                                      “In principle, we must completely do away with domestic
                                                                                                  flights. High speed trains will take over. I would go so far as


    16
to say they will come to dominate travel in Northern Europe,
e.g. in Germany and Belgium.”
                                                                      “My vision is to have a
   Petri Tapio does not agree. He believes instead that                module that can attach
progress will lead to more fuel-efficient turbo-prop planes
for shorter journeys. Flight times will be a little longer, but        to a car, to make it larger
because the distances involved are so short it will not have
much of an effect – the longest part of the trip time-wise is
                                                                       whenever needs be”
                                                                        Ida Kristoffersson, Department of Transport and Economics at,
anyway spent outside of the aeroplane, e.g. on the transfer             Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm
bus and in security checks.

Another difference in Nordic city traffic of the future will
be fully-automated transport systems. Vehicles that roll                                                                                        Henrik Gudmundsson,
                                                                                                                                                scientist at
along without drivers. Maybe they will be remote control-
                                                                                                                                                Denmark’s Transport
led. And maybe they will have their own infrastructure un-                                                                                      Research Institute.
derground.
   One potential area for this is round-the-clock goods trans-
port.
   “Heavy through traffic will most likely be moved beneath
the cities. Underground roads for goods delivery may be in-
troduced in certain countries,” says Henrik Gudmundsson.
                                                                      5 FORMS OF TRANSPORT
Magnus Nilsson, traffic expert at The Swedish Society for Na-
ture Conservation, does not believe that increased efficiency
                                                                      How we travel in 2035
is enough to save the environment. Not only must the whole
transport sector become more energy efficient, but also the                                     PROS                           CONS
type of fuels we use must be changed.
    “It is about reducing the use of petrol and diesel, although             FLYING             People need and want to        The effect of flying on the
I believe both will still be in use in 2035. But even so, we                                    travel. Flying takes us a      environment. Fuel costs
cannot just replace existing fuels with renewable resources                                     long way in a short time.      will probably rise drasti-
                                                                                                                               cally, which will cause
and continue driving cars the way we do today. We need to
                                                                                                                               ticket prices to skyrocket.
develop new vehicles, move away from roads to railways,
drive more slowly and lead community planning towards
more efficient solutions.”                                                  TRAINS              Environment and urbani-        Will the infrastructure be
    Ida Kristoffersson agrees that today’s behaviour must                                       zation. Not everyone who       sufficiently well devel-
change.                                                                                         works in town can live         oped? Railways take more
    “I have read that half of all car trips in the EU are less than                             there. A new generation of     time to plan and imple-
two kilometers. We could quite simply cycle or walk such                                        express trains could more      ment than roads.
                                                                                                than halve travel times.
short distances instead.”
    She believes continued climate debate in combination with
                                                                              CARS              Even in 2035 people will       Environmental impact.
various economic incentives to be the recipe.                                                   want to enjoy the free-        And crowding and traffic
    Engines will change too, according to Ida Kristoffers-                                      dom a car provides. A fuel     jams are difficult to com-
son – most cars will probably be so-called plug-in hybrids,                                     with zero environmental        pletely build away.
which switch between electric motors and internal combus-                                       impact can be a reality.
tion engines, and that can be topped up at “electric filling
stations” along the way. Another alternative is small, efficient
diesel cars.                                                               BICYCLES             An increased focus on          A growing distance
                                                                                                health.                        between work and home.
    But how innovative is that, really?
                                                                                                                               People will value comfort
    “An exciting solution is synthetic diesel, based on renewa-                                                                more in 2035.
ble raw materials – diesel can be made from timber, refuse and
in principal anything you like,” Magnus Nilsson tells us.

Even if solutions for more efficient and eco-friendly transport        UNDERGROUND              Eco-friendly. Already to-      Increasing the number
are within reach, this is the development in a nutshell – revo-                                 day the financial fuse has     of underground lines is
lutionary solutions are conspicuous by their absence.                                           been lit for city tunnels.     expensive for the com-
                                                                                                                               munity.
   So it’s just as well to realize that even in 2035 science fic-
tion will still be something for books and films.
   Just like it was in the fifties. ●
                                                                      Source: Per Florén, Kairos Furure, Sweden.

                                                                                                                                                              17
                echnological
                             4
     CHAllENGE

      How will t
      developme  nt affect uos?omfort-
                                     c
                       on means m re                        alizati
                                           Increasing digit                        r personal inte
                                                                                                     g-
                                                             lso a danger fo
                                           able lives, but a                               to be moni-
                                                            g we  do will be able
                                            rity. Everythin                        rints. In 2035, “b
                                                                                                       ig
                                                            lectronic footp
                                            tored via our e                                dividual or
                                                               ap ower that no in
                                             brother” will be                        H AM M AR
                                                    ny can ignore.
                                                                     TE XT: TO BI AS
                                             compa




                         A
                                           ugust 2035. In a one-bedroom flat in Fredriks-
                                           berg in Copenhagen, 84-year-old Bente has just                   SURVEIllANCE
                                           got up. A sensor in her mattress notes the time:                 Advanced surveillance
                                           20:25. Because part of Bente’s evening routine                   cameras will become a
                                                                                                            common sight in cities.
                                           is going to the bathroom around this time, the
                                           information is not sent on to the home-help
                          service. However, an analysis of Bente’s urine sample taken
                          when she flushes four minutes later is passed on. Because the
                          sample indicates a certain lack of minerals the home-help central
                          computer system notes that tomorrow can be a good time for
                          Bente to eat a proper piece of meat for dinner.

                          At the same time, at Stortorget in Helsinki Marko, 44, passes
                          the cathedral on his way home from dinner with friends. The
                          three surveillance cameras along the cathedral wall simultane-
                          ously verify, via the automatic face recognition system, that it
                          is indeed Marko who is crossing the square. Because he is not
                          listed on any police criminal register, only his name and the
                          time of day are registered in the police database. No alarm is
                          triggered. Marko can continue calmly on his way.

                                                  Half an hour later Petter, 25, turns in
     “We are on our way                           to Grünerløkka in Oslo. He is hanker-
                                                  ing for a coffee but has not made up his
      to the transparent                          mind if he should pop in to Halvard’s
                                                  Kafé or the Asian-inspired Beijing Bazar.
      society, where                              As soon as he decides on the first option,
      everything we do                            his mobile communication device rings.
                                                  The radio tag in his pocket has received a
      is monitored and                            personal message from Beijing Bazar that
      checked”                                    his favourite coffee is on special offer this
                                                  evening. This gets him to immediately
     Jon Bing, Professor of law and Informatics   change his plans.
     at Oslo University

                          Three hypothetical scenes from a future that is just around
                          the corner – science fiction or soon reality? If we are to be-
                          lieve the experts, it is the latter. And as society is digitalized
                          more and more, an increasing amount of what we do will be
                          monitored by companies and individuals.
                              For better or for worse, we might add. Better, because
                          it will provide us with a simpler, more comfortable and to
                          a degree safer everyday life. Worse, because more and more
                          of our life will be charted by a “big brother” who will
                          not always have our best interests at heart.


1
HOW WE PROTECT OUR INTEGRITy IN 2035
1. ANONyMIZATION                 2. THE NEW INTERNET          3. DOCUMENTATION                 4. CAREFUl CHOICES           5. lOW PROFIlE
Various anonymization            New, exclusive inter-        Companies invest in              We will be more selec-       As private individuals we make
services sweep away our          nets appear that offer       thorough documenta-              tive in the companies we     sure we keep a low profile. We
electronic footprints by         higher security and less     tion of all their activities     trust with our personal or   do not display our property
e.g. “washing” our email         “noise” for users.           to defend themselves             sensitive information. We    on the internet, do not boast
and making our IP ad-                                         against fraud, false             allow one bank, one insur-   about our purchases in emails
dresses invisible.                                            invoices or alleged delin-       ance company, one grocery    or on social networks and use
                                                              quent payments.                  chain etc. to handle our     the utmost discretion when
                                                                                               affairs and transactions.    we go about our daily affairs.




    NEW WAyS AHEAD
    FOR MARKETING
    Using telephony, shops and
    restaurants for example
    will be able to sense when
    their customers are nearby
    and reach out to them with
    special offers.




                                                                                    PRIVATE DATA
                                                                                    Sensors and other
                                                                                    technological equipment
                                                                                    collect large quantities
                                                                                    of information on our
                                                                                    behaviour and our health.
                                                                                    This is something that
                                                                                    will change the state of
                                                                                    affairs e.g. for healthcare
                                                                                    and care of the elderly.




                                     NEW THREATS
                                     When all transactions
                                     are performed digit-
                                     ally, both companies
                                     and individuals are
                                     more vulnerable. A
                                     large part of economic
                                     criminality will move
                                     to the digital world.




                                                                                                                            ILLUSTRATION: SVENSKA GRAFIKBYRÅN



                                                                                                                                                                1
 CHAllENGE 4                  HOW WIll TECHNOlOGy AFFECT US?




                            “We are on our way to the transparent society, where                greater significance. Whenever we use them we will leave
                         everything we do is monitored and checked. This creates a              electronic “footprints” that are automatically stored on servers
                         completely new set of conditions for both companies and                and in databases somewhere out in cyberspace.
                         private individuals,” says Jon Bing, Professor of Law and                 “Two trends walk hand-in-hand here. One is that IT and
                         Informatics at Oslo University.                                        the internet are on the way out of our computers and into our
                                                                                                everyday appliances. We will have products that communicate
                         He can point out three different types of future monitor-              with each other wirelessly. Take today’s telephones, GPS sys-
                         ing areas, each of which was sketched out above. The “hard”            tems or electronic door locks as examples. The more connected
                         variant is where police and national authorities use surveillance      we become, the more footprints we leave behind us because
                         cameras, face recognition, espionage software and intelligent          our activity logfiles are not deleted,” says Per Ström, consultant
Per Ström, consultant    bugging systems to map out human activities in the fight against       at Den Nya Välfärden think tank and self-appointed “integrity
at Den Nya Välfärden     criminals and terrorists. “Soft” surveillance is where we use IT       ombudsman” in the Swedish surveillance debate.
           think tank.   to improve the care of the sick and elderly and make it more              He continues:
                         effective.                                                                “The other trend leads toward the increased collection, stor-
                             The third type is the stratum in between, where various            age and processing of just these logfiles. Our everyday activities
                         commercial interests chart our economic                                                    say a lot about who we are. It is information
                         behaviour in order to individualize adver-                                                 that many are extremely interested in.”
                         tising offers, simplify payment methods or        “It will not be
                         render the collection and recovery of debts
                         and taxes more efficient.
                                                                            the state that                         Per Ström points out four principal “big
                                                                                                                   brothers” in tomorrow’s society: the State
                                                                            monitors us                            will monitor citizens, industry will chart its
                         Anna Kiefer is a Future Strategist at the                                                 customers, curious individuals will want
                         international research and consulting com-
                                                                            in the future.                         to snoop on their neighbours and foreign
                         pany Kairos Future in Sweden. She too sees
                         developments leading toward the surveil-
                                                                            Instead                                powers will be interested in other countries’
                                                                                                                   populations and companies.
                         lance society.                                     everyone will                             The big problem, in Per’s opinion, is
                             “This is often described as a dystopia,
                         but there are two scenarios. Either increas-
                                                                            monitor each                           that all four will buzz around our personal
                                                                                                                   information like bees around a honey pot.
                         ing surveillance by the internet will lead to      other”                                 Because the information actually exists, the
                         a backlash, or we will accept it and society          Anna Kiefer, Kairos Future, Sweden  temptation to get hold of it will be great in
                         will become more open. Today we see the                                                   every direction, for every imaginable pur-
                         latter as being the more probable. The young are extremely               pose.
                         open in the digital media and do not look on their private                   This is often referred to as “objective creep” in the debate.
                         lives the way older generations have.                                        “It usually happens in two stages. First of all someone
                             “Technology changes our fundamental values, and what                 states that a certain type of data must be stored ‘simply be-
                         were private matters ten years ago – politics and religion – are         cause’ – and then mentions a deserving reason. And then
                         no longer private today. Youth accepts surveillance to a greater         someone else realizes that the data can be used for a lot more
                         degree and puts practical matters first, even though they do not         besides. This easily results in boundary walls between the vari-
                         exactly relish the thought of web habits being monitored.                ous big brothers being pulled down: the footprints are refined
                             “In contrast to what Karin Boye and George Orwell wrote,             and processed, often for a multitude of different purposes,”
                         it will not be the state that in the first instance monitors us          says Per Ström.
                         in the future. Instead everybody will monitor each other.                    There are already plenty of examples: The EU recently
                         The village will become global and big-city anonymity will               decided that the information from all of Europe’s telecom
                         vanish,” says Anna Kiefer.                                               operators must be collected and made available to police in
                               Increased surveillance and control is a trend that can-            the Union’s member countries. And in the USA the Total
                                    not be stopped. Developments lead more and more               Information Awareness Office was established after 9/11 as
                                            toward intelligent products and services, in          a special authority whose purpose was to scour thousands of
                                                   which the internet and other forms             public and commercial databases across the world in the hunt
                                                           of electronic communica-               for people with suspect behaviour patterns.
                                                                     tion will have an ever           After hard criticism from Congress, the authority was de-
                                                                                                  funded. But research into pattern recognition and sophisticated
                                                                                                  data mining systems continues apace all around the world.

                                                                                                     But an increased state monitoring requirement is not
                                                                                                            the only integrity infringement we face. Crimi-
                                                                                                                  nality will also develop. In the future our
                                                                                                                  electronic footprints will make us fair game


  0
for thieves who want to steal our identities and rob our sav-     more selective with our information. In 2035 there will be
ings. And as the flow of money becomes completely digital-        extremely few players to whom we grant permission to handle
ized, companies and authorities will encounter completely         our information. We will have absolutely nothing to do with
new kinds of external threat. We can count on cyber terrorism,    websites and companies that are not trusted.”
webjacking, virus threats and the falsification of biometrics
such as fingerprints and iris scans becoming big business in      Whatever we do, researchers agree on one thing: what we
the criminal economy of the future.                               today call our “private” lives are on the way toward radical
   The market for various types of protection against big         and comprehensive change.
brother, e.g. anonymization systems and services that “wash”          “Basically it is a matter of a typical conflict of aims. We all
emails and make IP addresses untraceable, will grow consider-     want increased surveillance because of the increased security it
ably. Maybe over time we will have several different parallel     brings. At the same time we are against it regarding our own          Anna Kiefer, future
internets, each with its own level of security and exclusivity    personal integrity. But even if this contradiction is exacerbated     strategist at the
                                                                                                                                        research consultancy
among its users.                                                  in the future, it is not certain that it will feel this way. Our      Kairos Future.
   But will that be enough?                                       definition of what belongs to our private sphere changes all
   “In practical terms it is impossible to become anonymous.      the time,” says Jon Bing, Professor of Law and Informatics
The most effective method is probably to become as unin-          at Oslo University.
teresting as possible. It’s a matter of keeping a low profile,        “Take for example surveillance cameras at ATMs. Initially
of not displaying conspicuous assets and valuables on the         the general public was skeptical about them, but as theft of
internet. This may work for private individuals ... but for       credit cards and PIN numbers increased we have become
companies?” questions Leif-Olof Wallin, analyst at Gartner        used to being photographed when we withdraw money. In
consultancy, and continues:                                       It is in this way that we will voluntarily and successively limit
   “The trend is heading toward our becoming significantly        our private spheres in the future.” ●



Five everyday things that may be completely different in 2035                                                                           Jon Bing, Professor of
                                                                                                                                        law and Informatics at
                                  2008                            2035                                                                  Oslo University.



   you have a                     Your colleague notices and      The coughing fit is registered in your health journal, thanks
   coughing fit                   worried, asks: “Are you OK?”    to a microsensor in your throat. When you sicken with a
                                                                  fever two weeks later, your doctor studies the logged infor-
                                                                  mation. For an extra charge this health check can take place
                                                                  live, seconds after your coughing fit.


   you call your other            The number you called and       When you walk into the store, it knows who you are and you
   half, who tells you            the time of the call are        are presented with a shopping list on a display that shows what
   to buy crisps                  registered.                     is missing from the fridge at home, along with the prompt
                                                                  “need crisps?” because crisps were mentioned in your last
                                                                  phone call. (Your favourite products, based on what you usually
                                                                  buy, glimmer that little bit extra as you pass by their shelves.)


   you are on your way            Your GPS knows your             An accident alarm is triggered, and the ambulance driver
                                  car’s route.                    knows exactly where your car is.
   to a family dinner
   but crash on the way

   you are looking                You prospective employer        The employer makes use of a well-established search serv-
   for a job                      checks your Facebook profile    ice and within a few seconds generates a categorized report
                                  to see if you are suitable as   covering your internet activities for the last ten years and
                                  an employee.                    what others have written about you.



   you want to give               You splash out and buy a        Because diamonds have lost their status as luxury articles
   your mother an                 diamond.                        (nanotechnology has made it possible to manufacture
                                                                  diamonds for a mere trifle), you decide instead to put your
   exclusive 60th                                                 money on a cool experience, for example a professionally-
   birthday gift                                                  produced 30-minute show about your mother’s life.



                                                                                                                                                       1
                                                                    GOOD HEAlTH
                                                                    lifestyle diseases,
                                                                    caused by stress and
                                                                    poor habits, will be a
                                                                    bigger problem. The
                                                                    ability to take care of
                                                                    oneself, both physi-
                                                                    cally and mentally, will
                                                                    become much more
                                                                    important.




                                                                                           PROJECT EMPlOyMENT
                                                                                           Security will not come in
                                                                                           the form of permanent
                                                                                           company employment. Be-
                                                                                           ing able to adapt to tempo-
                                                                                           rary contracts and to create
                                                                                           your own work opportuni-
                                                                                           ties will be crucial.




                                         EDUCATED
                                         Education and the
                                         ability to navigate
                                         through large quantities
                                         of information will be
                                         crucial for success and
                                         well being.




     ILLUSTRATION: SVENSKA GRAFIKBYRÅN




                  CHAllENGE
                                 5

                Who will be le
                                      ft behind?
                      There are two
                                    group                    s of people wh
                                      difficult time in                            o will have a
                                                        2035: those wh
                                     lane right up u                        o live in the fast
                                                      ntil they suffer
                                     or depression,                       from stress, an
                                                     and those who                           xiety
                                     Physical well b                     lack an educati
                                                     eing will also b                        on.
                                     winners of the                     e a big issue fo
                                                      future. TEXT: SØRE                    r the
                                                                         N RATH JE




                                          G
                                                             et a good education and use all your talents,
                                                             and you will do well here in life.” That’s more
                                                             or less what parents said until just a few years
                                                             ago. Hard work, talent and knowledge were
                                                             the certain way ahead to a good life.
                                                                Today’s parents must be prepared to tell
                                           their children something different. They will need more to
                                           cope with tomorrows demands.
                                              Education is of course still important, but a new challenge
                                           has arisen that is gaining all the more importance. It’s hard
                                           to put a finger on, but it is about being visible and flexible in
                                           order always to have the opportunity to take on new projects,
                                           no matter if a person is freelance or a company employee. It’s
                                           about communicating, building relationships and being open
                                           to every opportunity.
                                              “In a project society, everything will be built on tempo-
                                           rary contracts. One project is but
                                           a springboard to the next, and
                                           therefore it will always be neces-
                                                                                  “The ability to form
                                           sary to perform, develop, distin-       networks is the new
                                           guish oneself and be attractive. It
                                           is one of the reasons we talk so
                                                                                   competitive edge”
                                           much today about a child’s so-            Anders Fogh Jensen, University of Copenha-
                                                                                     gen, Denmark.
                                           cial skills. The ability to form net-
                                           works is the new competitive edge,” says Anders Fogh Jensen,
                                           who recently finished his doctoral thesis about the project
                                           society at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
                                              The contours of the project society can already be dis-
                                           cerned today in most of the city’s permanent employments
                                           – research shows that ever more employees unwillingly stay
                                           in a job more than three or four years. Many are afraid of
                                           standing still. They want at all costs to be ready for action,
NETWORK BUIlDERS
Social skills and the ability              or as one of his students recently said to Anders Fogh Jensen:
to build relationships will be             “Better to be abused than disused.”
decisive factors in the labour
market of the future.
                                           The desire to continually perform can have dire consequences,
                                           something all the scientists in this article are agreed on. They
                                           name some of the typical symptoms: the stress, depression, and
                                           burn-out that afflicts otherwise well-functioning people from
                                           every part of the labour market. According to researchers these
                                           hidden illnesses are the natural result of the breakdown of the
                                           demarcation between work and private life.
                                              According to researchers, the solution to the prob-
                                           lem is largely in the hands of politicians. They must


                                                                                                                                  3
  CHAllENGE 5                    WHO WIll BE lEFT BEHIND?




                           create an overall framework, otherwise an increasing indi-              and well-marketed “breathing-spaces” such as golf courses
                           vidualism will place such great pressure on people that they            and health farms will be sought after. Life in Nordic cities may
                           will end up being burned out.                                           be even more hectic than it is today, says Hylland Eriksen.
                               “In the industrial society the body was the engine of work.            But he also envisages another, contradictory scenario:
                           That era’s diseases were overwhelmingly physical and as such            Not least because of the current concern for the environ-
                           were easier to take collective action against. Today and in             ment, alternative values have wind in their sails. It is perfectly
                           the future the engine will to a much greater degree be our              conceivable that the Nordic countries will invest in a new
                           mental resources. But when they wear out it is much more                kind of utopia in the years ahead and prioritize time and
                           difficult to find a simple explanation. The brain is much more          eco-friendliness over short-term profitability. According to
                           complicated than the body, and I am of the opinion that                 Hylland Eriksen, we now stand at a moral cross-roads.
                           it is a reckless and very dangerous ex-
   Anders Fogh Jensen,     periment that the West is conducting                                                           Education is no guarantee we will avoid
  University of Copen-
      hagen, Denmark.
                           when it elevates change as something              “We strive for, and                          tomorrow’s pitfalls, but it is a decisive
                           that is only positive,” says sociologist
                           Rasmus Willig.
                                                                              worship, health                             advantage. Those who lack fundamental
                                                                                                                          education in the future will to a greater ex-
                                                                              like never before”                          tent than today be discarded by the labour
                           There are no signs that things are slow-          Nanna Mik-Meyer, University of Copenha-
                                                                                                                          market and society. There is for example
                           ing down. Tomorrow everything will                gen, Denmark                                 already a trend toward a requirement for
                           be faster than today, especially when                                                          warehouse workers to be able to do more
                           it comes to technology and communication. With the aid                 than just lift boxes. The ability to express oneself, write and mas-
                           of ever-more advanced technology we can communicate 24                 ter technology is becoming more important in many areas.
                           hours a day. There are many advantages, but it presupposes                 There are children in today’s society that lag far behind
                           that we are ourselves capable of governing our relationships           their peers before they even begin school because their parents
                           with information technology.                                           have not been able to provide them with the skills necessary
     Nanna Mik-Meyer,          Thomas Hylland Eriksen, Professor of Social Anthropolo-            to go out into society, when it comes to language, knowledge
   Sociologist, Univer-    gy at the University of Oslo however, notes a worrying trend.          and habits. Some say we are on our way to a 5/6 society
   sity of Copenhagen,     More and more of us are fed information out of context and             where the greater part of a population gets along better in
             Denmark.
                           are governed by what he calls “the Tyranny of the Moment”           .  every respect, but where the bottom sixth has little chance
                           There is always news on the internet or an email message that          of coping.
                           must be answered, which means people are standing still at                 Tapio Salonen, Professor of Social Work at Växjö Univer-
                           breakneck speed.                                                       sity in Sweden, confirms the picture. Not least in cities it is
                               The ability to navigate through a logjam of information will       all the more evident that there are groups among immigrants
                           be a deciding factor in how we survive in the future and avoid         and refugees in particular that are shut out from society and
                           drowning in details. This applies not only to electronic com-          who live in a different reality to the majority. Though not
                           munication, but also to physical life in the cities of 2035.           necessarily because they lack education.
                               According to the professor there is every indication the ac-           “Those in real need of an overall social network live in ever-
                           celeration will continue. In this case lifestyle illnesses will rise,  more segregated housing estates. They are always confronted


 Thomas Hylland Erik-
sen, Professor of Social
   Anthropology, Oslo
   University, Norway.                5 qualities for success in 2035
                                       What will we need to succeed            1. PERSPICACITy                             2. CREATIVITy
                                        in life in 2035? Well, you will
                                                                               The ability to see why a thing is the       The ability to create new pictures
                              need a lot more of what futurologists
                                                                               way it is, or how it can be different.      and ideas in someone else’s mind.
                              call “living qualities”; qualities that can-
                              not be replaced by computers, cheap
                              labour or automated routines.


                              3. ENTREPRENEURIAl SPIRIT                        4. INFlUENCE                                5. AWARENESS
                              The ability to take ideas and make               The ability to communicate skill-           Being aware of how we interact with
                              something of them, to make sure they             fully and build relationships.              things, people and our bodies.
                              just don’t run out in the sand by skillful
                              planning, organization, management
                              and endurance.


                                                                                        Source: World Future Society and Richard W. Samson, author of the book “Mind over
                                                                                               technology: Coming out on top as a wired world starts to run on automatic”.
   4
by closed doors, and therefore I am afraid that in the future
we will suffer the tensions between various races and social
classes that we see in France, the USA and Great Britain,”
says Tapio Salonen.
    It is not just language, work and habits that make groups
with low education or no education at all stand out more and
more. Even our bodies become a kind of indicator of edu-
cational level. Already today we are exposed to the powerful
sight of slim and healthy people who eat correctly and treat
their bodies as temples, at the same time as obesity spreads,
not least among those who are already the most disadvan-
taged. These two conflicting tendencies will be reinforced
further, in the opinion of Sociologist Nanna Mik-Meyer from
the University of Copenhagen:
    “We strive for, and worship, health as never before, and
this worship is well on the way to becoming one of the most
important values in the West. Everything indicates that the
well educated are focusing more on being healthy and slim            “Obesity is an
and that many will succeed, while the poorly educated will
probably become even more unhealthy and overweight – a                epidemic in the offing”
development we can already see in the USA. It is an unfortu-
                                                                      “The obesity explosion is a reality. More people
nate scenario, and we can only hope that more of us gain an           die now from the results of obesity than from
education, because statistics show a clear correlation between        smoking. No measures to date have had any ef-
obesity and educational levels,” says Nanna Mik-Meyer, as             fect. On the other hand, almost no effort has been
she mentions another problem among those who are most                 shown by our authorities. If we do not succeed in
disadvantaged.                                                        bringing about a dramaticx paradigm shift, obesity
    If in earlier times there were reasonably rigid guidelines        will lead to global health catastrophes.”
                                                                         So says Professor Stephan Rössner at the Karo-
for successful living, they are become ever more difficult to
                                                                      linska University hospital in huddinge, Sweden.
find.                                                                    he has worked for many years with issues sur-
    Which brings us back to this article’s opening about future       rounding ill health and has observed among other
challenges, namely to be self-governing and energetically ef-         things that the causes of obesity are only partially
ficient in more and more areas – which is challenge enough            understood.
even for the well educated.                                              Even if around fifty per cent of obesity can be
    And for people who lack an education things are much              attributed to genetic factors, it is still lifestyle,
                                                                      social, behavioural, cultural and societal factors that
more difficult compared to the children of the well educated,
                                                                      will decide if obesity will rise or not.
as the former often have inferior abilities of self-reflection and       Obesity is difficult to prevent and unfortunately
insight into their situation, according to Mik-Meyer. ●               long-term, scientifically-evaluated treatment pro-
                                                                      grams have not shown any tangible effects.
                                                                         “Obesity is an epidemic in the offing,” observes
                                                                      Stephan Rössner.




                                                                                                                                5
     IS THIS THE
     FUTURE?
     Five big challenges for the future. What do our decision makers
     say about life in the Nordic cities of 2035? Five Scandinavian leaders
     and politicians share their thoughts about some of our time’s most
     important issues. By SØREN RATHJE




      Osmo Soininvaara,           Anders Olshov, Head of     Kjell Magne Bondevik,     Margrethe Vestager,       Torbjörn Magnusson,
      former Minister of Health   the Öresund Institute,     former Prime Minister,    former Education Minis-   If CEO.
      and Social Services,        Sweden.                    Norway.                   ter, Denmark.
      Finland.




     WORK

     “Stop using the words dependency burden”
     Margrethe Vestager: “The future shortage of labour is a very          than we were 100 years ago, and I am certain this progress
     big challenge. Technology will have a bigger impact than we           will continue. We will probably experience a new struggle
     imagine, but it will not be able to handle every kind of task.        between regions to attract skilled labour, and here in the
     Companies must therefore exercise a many-faceted leadership,          north we might have a problem because of our languages
     as there will be a lot of different nationalities and groups at       and climate.”
     the workplace. And besides, we should stop using the words            Anders Olshov: “Today however, the Nordic area is quite an
     dependency burden. In the future there will be much more indi-        attractive region where many are prepared to live with the
     vidual choice regarding how long we will work. More of us will        climate and languages, but it is difficult to say how things
     be healthy and full of initiative all the way up into old age.”       will be in future as wars and new great powers such as India
     Kjell Magne Bondevik: “The solution lies in a combination of          and China can upset the present situation. But it might well
     technological capacity and imported labour. In 2035 Eastern           be that we quite simply export the dependency burden; i.e.
      Europe will have lifted themselves up to our level, and we will      that more and more of us choose to spend our autumn years
            have to look further afield in the world for labour.”          abroad. There are already a lot of people who have bought
                   Osmo Soininvaara: “I am not worried about               houses in France and Spain.”
                          the dependency burden and the demo-              Torbjörn Magnusson: “In 25 years China and India may
                                  graphic challenges. I don’t think        be just as important for the global economy as the USA is
                                          there will be a problem solv-    today. It is not a foregone conclusion that the Nordic area
                                                ing tomorrow’s work        and Western Europe will be the same labour magnets they are
                                                      assignments. For     today. A real worry is that we may experience a severe lack of
                                                      example, we are      global resources if the Western lifestyle spreads everywhere.
                                                     14 times more         We can already see signs of this as food prices rise since more
                                                     efficient today       people in Asia can now afford to eat better.”


6
                   MARGINAlIZATION

                   “We must invest in socially-deprived districts”
                   Torbjörn Magnusson: “We are facing large migrations of                  religious tensions that have become all the more obvious
                   peoples resulting from globalization and regional shortages             these past few years. In Norway we have established a national
                   of resources. In order to manage the integration issue here             council comprised of leaders from all the religious persuasions
                   at home we need to establish a fundamentally strong set of              that meets regularly and which in my opinion is one of the
                   common values that are shared by all, independent of ethnic,            reasons why we have not experienced the same troubles as
                   religious or other affiliations; values that both those who live        Denmark did during the cartoon crisis two years ago.”
                   in city districts with only immigrants and second generation            Margrethe Vestager: “We really need to invest in socially-
                   citizens, and those who live in a traditional Nordic environ-           deprived districts – both in the physical design of
                   ment, can live up to.”                                                  homes and in the way they function socially, so
                   Osmo Soininvaara: “Unfortunately tensions are rising be-                that we can break the negative spiral. I agree
                   tween ethnic groups and social classes. Employment is the key           absolutely with Bondevik when he insists on a
                   to successful integration. I think we need to review income             dialogue. We must be able to talk, even when
                   levels here in the Nordic area. One of the reasons so many              we disagree.”
                   people become unemployed is that their wages are too high
                   in relation to their skills. We must not get into a situation like
                   that in the USA where it is possible to be poor even if you
                   are employed, but something in between the American and
                   the current Nordic model would be able to help the unskilled
                   into the labour market.”
                   Kjell Magne Bondevik: “We must also be very aware of the



                    “We will probably experience a new
                     struggle between regions”
                      Osmo Soininvaara, former Minister of Health and Social Services, Finland




NEW TECHNOlOGy

“The cameras make me feel insecure”
Osmo Soininvaara: “It might be naive, but I am not worried            aware of the risks. In Norway we have strict and very active
about us winding up in a big brother society. I have more faith       data protection laws that safeguard people’s integrity and
in the researchers’ softer version where digitalization makes         counteract tendencies for a possible cascade effect. We ought
everyday life easier for citizens and authorities. I am more          to strive for just such protection at an international level.”
worried about genetic technology, which could mean that we            Margrethe Vestager: “I think it is naive to believe that the
quickly arrive in very problematic scenarios, where companies         many surveillance cameras do not change our behaviour. We
demand genetic testing as part of their employment process            feel less free when there are cameras everywhere. We actually
to see what diseases a prospective employee is prone to.”             feel less safe, because they imply danger and risk. But I agree
Anders Olshov: “I don’t believe that tomorrow’s society will          with Bondevik that there is a need for international legislation
allow employers to carry out that kind of biological test on          in this area. There is a large commercial interest in being able
employees. It’s not even possible today to ask certain ques-          to register our internet traffic, via credit cards and mobile
tions at an employment interview.”                                    phones, and we must put a stop to it politically.”
Torbjörn Magnusson: “Technological progress is for the main
part positive. And the media are good at reacting and bringing
integrity infringements to a stop, so I am not too worried
about a big brother society. On the other hand, what is re-
ally frightening is how none of us really considers the risks
we expose ourselves to now that we spend more time on the
net. This should be addressed as early as in school so that we
increase awareness, not least among the young.”
Kjell Magne Bondevik: “I am also convinced that digitaliza-
tion will above all be a great help. Of course we need to be


                                                                                                                                                             7
IS THIS THE FUTURE?



                       HOUSING

                       “Reduce energy consumption by 70 per cent”
                       Osmo Soininvaara: “There will of course be a greater focus            in the number of allergy sufferers as no fresh air is getting
                       on energy consumption in homes of the future, in part be-             into their homes.”
                       cause of more stringent demands from politicians, and partly          Margrethe Vestager: “I also believe that greater attention will
                       because of technological advances. But also because energy            be paid to the indoor environment in the future, and again it
                       prices will rise so much that people will quite simply be able        is technology that will ensure we have sufficient ventilation.
                       to save money by insulating their houses. A realistic estima-         Today there are a great many illnesses that were extremely
                       tion is that we can reduce our energy consumption by 70 per           rare when I was a child, such as asthma, allergies
                       cent compared to today.”                                              and ear infections. We have just entered
                       Torbjörn Magnusson: “Considerably more energy efficient               into a comprehensive energy agreement
                       and compact homes place great demands on the building in-             wherein energy consumption in new
                       dustry to find solutions that can be produced in a sustainable        buildings must be reduced by 75 per
                       manner over the long term and that provide a good indoor              cent by 2020.”
                       environment. The challenge must not be underestimated; we
                       have seen many examples of newly-built air-tight houses that
                       have suffered mould damage.”
                       Anders Olshov: “There is absolutely no doubt that our houses
                       will have much better insulation in the future as a result of
                       rising energy prices and political regulation. We can already
                       see this. The flip side is that we are also seeing a big increase




                       “Cars will not disappear from the city,
                        but we will have other types of individual vehicles”
                          Margrethe Vestager, former Education Minister, Denmark




  TRANSPORT

  “Public transport will be expanded further”
  Torbjörn Magnusson: “It is striking that practically every             the aid of car tolls where one pays for the number of driven
  city I have visited has had completely substandard public              kilometers, or by a congestion charge system where you pay
  transport. Even in countries as rich as ours in the Nordic             to enter the city. At the same time we must of course expand
  region. It is as if no one understands how important this issue        public transport and make more efficient cars that emit less
  is for a city to function effectively and for it to be an attractive   exhaust.”
  place for companies and for people to live in. Infrastructure          Anders Olshov: “Public transport will be enlarged further
  ventures take a long time, so it’s best to start now.”                 in the form of underground systems, tramways and light
  Osmo Soininvaara: “I do not believe in the completely car-             rail, and I also believe we will do more for cyclists so that it
  free city scenario. There will always be a need for cars in            becomes safer and more advantageous to go by bike, among
  cities, but there is absolutely no doubt that the number of            other reasons because there will be fewer cars in the cities. I
  cars in cities will be reduced. This can either be achieved with       believe more in congestion charges than I do in road tolls,
                                                                         which in my opinion bring problems when it comes to the
                                                                         controls and monitoring we discussed earlier.”
                                                                         Margrethe Vestager: “Cars will not disappear from the cit-
                                                                         ies, but I believe we will have other personal vehicles that we
                                                                         will to a greater extent combine with public transport. Cities
                                                                         will be freed from heavy goods traffic, and electric cars will
                                                                         be much more common, I think.”
       Report 2007
Annual
   If is the Nordic      leader in P&C insurance. The company has
   3.6 million customers in the Nordic region, the Baltic and Russia.
   With around 6,400 employees If offers the whole breadth of P&C
   insurances and services, for everything from private individuals to
   global industrial companies.
      2007 was yet another successful year for If. For the fourth
   year in a row the company exceeded its key targets. The technical result
   increased to MSEK 5,266. The combined ratio was 90.6 per cent,
   decidedly better than the long-term goal of staying under 95 per cent.
   Cost effectiveness continued to improve. The number of insurances
   sold increased. Market shares were stable.
      These successes are the result of systematic and long-term efforts
   where strong customer focus, selective growth strategy and cost ef-
   fectiveness make up the main elements.
      If ’s business activities are carried out in the business areas Private,
   Companies, Industry and Baltic and Russia.




                                                                             If’s Annual Report 2007 31
                 Business Idea, Strategy and Financial Targets
                 If’s vision is to be the Nordic and Baltic Regions’ leading insurance company with the
                 most satisfied customers, the foremost insurance expertise and the best profitability.




                  Business Idea                                                        Combined ratio
                  If offers value-for-money insurance solutions that provide
                  customers security and stability for businesses, residences and      2007                                                   90.6%

                  everyday living.                                                     2006                                                   89.9%

                                                                                              0             20        40           60         80           100       %
                  Strategic Goals
                  If’s goal is to establish better profitability and customer satis-
                  faction in the long term compared to our competitors, coupled
                  with high creditworthiness.                                          Technical results

                  Strategic Direction                                                  2007                                   5,226
                  Customer Value                                                       2006                                    5,124
                  If will exceed customer expectations through superior in-
                  surance solutions, fast and accurate claims management and                  0             2,000          4,000           6,000           8,000     MSEK
                  sympathetic behaviour.

                  Focused Insurance Expertise
                                                                                       Operating profit/loss
                  If will purposefully strengthen the organization’s skills in de-
                  veloping, pricing and distributing insurance products, and also      2007                                   5,009
                  through liability prevention and management.
                                                                                       2006                                                   6,826

                  Nordic Business Platform                                                    0             2,000          4,000           6,000           8,000     MSEK
                  If will create competitive advantage through economies of
                  scale and know-how transfer by integrating Nordic and Baltic
                  organizations.
                                                                                       Average number group employees 2007
                  Investment Strategy with Balanced Risk
                  If has as its investment strategy the balancing of insurance         Denmark               436
                  business undertakings with investment assets relating to cur-        Estonia               383
                  rency accounts. Capital surplus will be invested with the aim
                                                                                       Finland                                                         1,758
                  of increasing total yields.
                                                                                       Latvia           135
                  Core values                                                          Lithuania            195
                  Easy to Understand and Achieve
                                                                                       Norway                                                      1,618
                  If is easy to make contact with, and its staff, products and
                  services are easy to understand.                                     Sweden                                                                1,820

                                                                                       Others          60
                  Dedicated
                  If takes initiative and cares about me.                                          0                500            1,000           1,500             2,000

                                                                                       Total number employees 6,405
                  Reliable
                  If keeps its promises and is there to help when needed.

                  Creative
                  If leads developments forward and continually creates new
                  insurance products and services.




30 If’s Annual Report 2007
Market and Competitors
 The Nordic region is the seventh largest P&C insurance market in Europe, with an esti-
 mated premium value of around SEK 200 billion. Europe has a total premium value of SEK
 3,520 billion. In the total European liability insurance market, If is the Nordic region’s
 largest and one of Europe’s 15 largest listed P&C insurance companies.




Nordic Region                                                          Market shares in Finland
If has an integrated Nordic business organization. In total, If’s
market share is equivalent to around one fifth of the Nordic                         Others 18%
                                                                                                                If 26%
market. In Sweden, Norway and Finland, If is one of the
leading insurance companies with market shares of 20, 30                          Fennia 10%
and 26 per cent respectively. In the Danish market, which is
more fragmented, If is the fifth largest company with a market
share of five per cent.                                                             Tapiola 19%                 Pohjola 27%
    The Nordic insurance market is relatively consolidated.
The five largest companies have two thirds of the market and
the three largest companies are established in more than one           Market shares in Sweden
Nordic country. The largest companies’ market share has in-                         Others 18%              If 20%
creased significantly since the middle of the nineties.
    Competition in the Nordic insurance market continued to
be intensive during 2007. For example, several players showed                    Folksam 15%
high levels of activity in strengthening their distribution abili-                                              Länsförsäkringar 29%
ties through partnership alliances and the internet. Increasing
inflationary pressure was also noted in every Nordic country                      Trygg-hansa 18%
during 2007, which is an important factor for continued mar-
ket development.
    Discussions concerning the role of the public welfare system       Market shares in Norway
have intensified over the last few years in Nordic countries,                            Others 11%
and this has led to increased demand for insurance solutions                    Sparebank 1 10%                   If 30%
that complement the public systems.

The Baltic                                                                        TrygVesta 18%
The year 2007 was characterized by continued high growth
                                                                                                                 Gjensidige 31%
in the Baltic insurance markets, where If is established as one
of the largest players. In the relatively consolidated Estonian
liability insurance market, If is the largest player with a market
share of 33 per cent. In the more fragmented Lithuanian and            Market shares in Denmark 1)
                                                                                                        If 5%
Latvian markets, If is the fifth largest player in each country.
                                                                                                                 Tryg 21%
In 2007 If had a market share of 10 per cent in Lithuania and
8 per cent in Latvia.                                                             Others 32%


                                                                                                                  Topdanmark 19%

Market shares per country and region                                                 Alm. Brand 10%     Codan 13%
     If                                      2007        2006   2005
     Finland                                 26%         28%    29%
                                                                       Market shares Baltic Region
     Norway                                  30%         32%    31%
                                                                                                           If 15%
     Sweden                                  20%         20%    20%
     Denmark     1)                           N/A   2)
                                                          5%     6%
     Nordic Region                           N/A 2)      19%    20%                Others 36%
     Estonia                                 33%         36%    39%                                                 Codan (RSA) 21%
     Latvia                                   8%          9%     9%
     Lithuania                               10%         10%    10%
     The Baltic                              15%         16%    18%                           BTA 14%      Ergo 14%
1)
     Aplies to 2006.   2)
                            Not available.




                                                                                                            If’s Annual Report 2007 31
                  If’s business areas
                  If’s business activities are run from a Nordic perspective. Activities are di-
                  vided into customer segments within the business areas Private, Business and
                  Industry. The Baltic and Russia, with their special market circumstances, form a
                  separate business area.




         Private                                                                   Companies
         If is the leading insurance company for private individuals in the Nor-   Business Area Companies’ target group is companies with up to 500
         dic region. Business Sector Private has three million customers in        employees. The business area is Nordic market leader and has around
         Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark. The 2007 technical result was        330,000 companies as customers. The 2007 technical result was
         MSEK 2,788. Total combined ratio was 90.1 per cent.                       MSEK 1,631. Total combined ratio was 90.8 per cent.



         How did 2007 go?                                                          How did 2007 go?
         “Well. Profitability was excellent and customer numbers are grow-         “Very well, for the third year in a row. Our successes are due to
         ing. These successes are the result of a range of improvements for        long-term, systematic efforts to improve every part of our insur-
         our customers. Among other things, we have developed several new          ance business. Most of our customers are very professional; they
         insurances. For example our so-called super products for homes and        run their own affairs to high standards and they demand the same
         cars have the broadest protection available on the market. We have        of us. It is with great pride that I see we live up to their demands
         become even better at providing help quickly when things happen           better than any one else.
         to our customers; we now solve 60 per cent of claims at the first            “We have also continued to make our business more efficient.
                              customer contact. And we have invested a great                             This means that we use less of a customer’s
                              deal in teaching our staff to understand our                               premium for our own administration – which
                              customers’ insurance needs, so that they really                            is good for the customer and good for If’s com-
                              do get the best advice when they call us.”                                 petitiveness.”

                              What are the most important insurance                                     What are the most important insurance trends
                              trends on the private market?                                             on the private market?
                              “The most important thing ahead is rapid tech-                            “A clear trend is that insurance companies’ serv-
         line Hestvik,        nical development. In ten years from now, the        Ivar Martinsen,      ice solutions are ever more integrated with the
         Business Area        way insurance is sold and how we help those          Business Area        customers’, not least via internet solutions.
         Private.                                                                  Companies.
                              who have suffered misfortune will both have                               Another trend is that companies not only insure
         changed. More and more is already taking place via the internet,          their own property, but even extend their insurance cover to their
         and we are only in the beginning of that development.                     staff, who are of course their most important resource. For example
         Another trend is that claims inflation is increasing, i.e. that branch    they use health insurance as a part of the compensation package in
         costs for repairing damaged cars and buildings etc., are rising.”         order to keep or attract personnel.”

         What will you invest in, in 2008?                                         What will you invest in, in 2008?
         “We will continue to work vigorously to increase customer ben-            “More and more often our customers need different services for
         efits. Among other things, we are making big efforts to further           different situations. The key to success therefore is to both develop
         improve our internet service. Another example is our introducing          our product range and improve customer service. If will stay ahead
         a new advantage programme for our customers in Finland, which             of the field with an optimal mix of modern technology and good
         together with our new cooperation with S-gruppen is one of our            personal service. This applies to all contacts, from the moment an
         biggest investments of the last few years.”                               insurance is purchased to when a customer suffers a misfortune.”


         Premiums writ-                                                            Premiums writ-
                                       Denmark 5%                                                              Denmark 9%
         ten, gross, by                                                            ten, gross, by
                                                                                                                                       Sweden 20%
         country                                                                   country
                             Finland 19%
                                                                                                      Finland 24%
                                                                  Sweden 41%
                                                                                                                                          Norway 47%
                             Norway 35%




3 If’s Annual Report 2007
Industry                                                                        Baltic and Russia
Business Area Industry is the biggest industrial insurer in the Nordic region   Business Area Baltic and Russia comprises Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and
and the fifth biggest purveyor of industrial insurance in Europe. Its custom-   Russia. Customers number around 300,000, both private individuals
ers are Nordic companies with sales of more than MSEK 500 and more than         and companies. The technical result was MSEK 149. Total combined
500 employees. Business Area Industry has around 1,300 customers. The           ratio was 90.8 per cent.
technical result was MSEK 575. Total combined ratio was 94.1 per cent.


How did 2007 go?                                                                How did 2007 go?
“Extremely well. Business Area Industry enjoyed good growth, both               “I am extremely pleased. We have grown by all of 23 per cent and
in that we gained new customers and existing customers bought                   profitability is good, and stable. We have worked hard to get even
more policies from us. One explanation is that we have broadened                closer to our customers. If has for example established new small
our product range, especially within personal risk insurance. Im-               sales outlets in malls and other places where people go about their
proved service and increase sales activities have also contributed.             everyday business. We are the leader when it comes to sales on the
   “At the same time we have suffered more large claims than usual,             internet; sales increased by 400 per cent in Estonia.
especially in Denmark. We have worked very hard to help the ex-                 If has also done very well with price setting, which is no mean feat
                    posed customers in what for many was a very                                       when wage inflation is around 20 per cent.”
                    difficult situation. Our size and Nordic struc-
                    ture mean that we can manage such challenges                                     What are the most important insurance
                    better than most. We have broader experience                                     trends in Russia and the Baltic states?
                    and greater expertise, and that gives customers                                  “The most crucial thing is that the insurance
                    clear advantages if an accident does occur.”                                     markets continue to grow fast. Obviously in
                                                                                                     Russia with its strong economy, but also in
                        What are the most important insurance                                        the Baltic states despite growth in the national
Morten Thorsrud,        trends on the industrial market?                        Timo Vuorinen,       economies slowing up. The most important
-Business Area          “Customers are getting more professional. They          Business Area Baltic reason is that a prosperous middle class is flour-
Industry.                                                                       and Russia.
                        no longer buy protection against simple general                              ishing fast, and they are acquiring more assets
liabilities as just a matter of course, but are getting better at utilizing     that need insurance. We can also see clear signs of an increasing
the whole scope of what insurance can offer, from disaster cover to             interest in health insurance among these customers.
benefits packages in the form of e.g. health insurance. Our custom-                “Another trend is that competition for labour is very hard, which
ers are getting better at finding a true balance between the risks a            means that many companies offer their staff benefits of various
company itself can bear, and what they ought to insure against.”                kinds, where personal risk insurance is often included.”

What will you invest in, in 2008?                                               What will you invest in, in 2008?
“Despite the fact that If is already one of the players with the broad-         “We will continue to establish sales outlets in places with high
est product range, we will launch several new insurances. Next in               customer densities. We will invest in e-communication with bro-
line for example, is a new kind of environment insurance. We are                kers; they are responsible for over 40 per cent of our Baltic sales.
also putting great efforts into helping our customers avoid liability.          In Russia we are on the offensive for private customers; we sold
For example, we have developed a new diagnostic tool for third                  the first car insurance this January.”
party insurance that will save many customers both time and money
when they use it”
                                                                                Premiums writ-
                           Denmark 12%                                          ten, gross, by                      Russia 2%
                                                                                country
Premiums written,                                                                                      Latvia 21%
gross, by country
                   Finland 23%                                Sweden 43%                                                                  Estonia 52%


                                                                                                   Lithuania 24%
                          Norway 22%




                                                                                                                                    If’s Annual Report 2007 33
                 Five-year Summary                                                        1)




                 Condensed Income Statement
                 MSEK                                                                   2007       2006      2005      2004      2003
                   Premiums earned, net of reinsurance                                35,128      34,837    34,426    32,764    34,392
                   Claims incurred, net of reinsurance                               –25,795     –25,252   –25,028   –24,105   –27,962
                   Operating expenses in insurance operations, net of reinsurance –6,045          –6,063    –6,135    –6,233    –6,741


                   Allocated investment income transferred from the non-technical account1,894     1,602     1,537     1,816     1,935
                   Other technical income                                                272        210       164       406         –
                   Other operating expenses                                             –228       –210      –179      –178         –
                   Technical result                                                    5,226      5,124     4,785     4,470     1,624


                   Investment income and other items                                    –217       1,702     2,708      849      1,078
                   Results before income tax                                           5,009      6,826     7,493     5,319     2,702


                   Income taxes                                                       –1,321      –1,955    –2,015    –1,290     –867
                   Net profit/loss for the year                                        3,688      4,871     5,478     4,029     1,835




34 If’s Annual Report 2007
Balance sheet, December 31, current value
MSEK                                                                                           2007               2006                2005               2004               2003
     Assets
     Intangible assets                                                                         1,138               1,228              1,324               1,359             1,528
     Investment assets                                                                       94,307              89,796             92,283              80,815            73,048
     Reinsurer’s share of technical provisions                                                 4,573               4,711              5,192               6,129             5,954
     Deferred tax assets                                                                         721                 947              1,113               1,643             2,178
     Debtors                                                                                   9,069               7,990              7,901               7,230             8,538
     Other assets, prepayments and accrued income                                              4,297               7,079              5,066               4,296             4,286
     Total assets                                                                          114,105             111,751            112,879             101,472             95,532


     Shareholders’ equity, provisions and liabilities
     Shareholders’ equity                                                                    18,504              19,304             24,363              20,822            16,985
     Subordinated debt                                                                         3,893               3,721              3,859               2,362             2,373
     Deferred tax liability                                                                    3,640               3,603              3,087               1,921             1,640
     Surplus/deficit in interest-bearing securities                                                 –                   –                   –                  –              338
     Technical provisions                                                                    80,506              74,554             74,027              68,554            67,705
     Creditors                                                                                 4,655               7,705              4,645               5,013             4,379
     Provisions, accruals and deferred income                                                  2,907               2,864              2,898               2,800             2,112
     Total shareholders’ equity, provisions and liabilities                                114,105             111,751            112,879             101,472             95,532


     Solvency capital                                                                        25,316             25,681              30,196             23,462             19,158


     Key data, property and casualty operations
     Claims ratio                                                                             73.4%               72.5%              72.7%               73.6%             81.3%
     Expense ratio                                                                            17.2%               17.4%              17.8%               19.0%             19.6%
     Combined ratio                                                                           90.6%               89.9%              90.5%               92.6%           100.9%
     Cost ratio                                                                               23.7%               24.0%              24.3%               25.6%             26.6%


     Key data, asset management
     Total return ratio 2)                                                                     2.6%                4.3%                5.8%               4.3%              4.6%


     Other key data
     Regulatory capital                                                                      23,426              25,400             25,985              21,482            19,808
     Solvency margin                                                                           6,094               5,868              5,938               6,368             5,972
     Solvency ratio                                                                           71.3%               73.6%              87.5%               69.8%             53.8%
1)
   Since January 1, 2005 If applies International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), for which reason all figures for 2004 have been recalculated in accordance with these principles
   having taken into account the stipulations in IFRS 1 regarding first-time adoption of IFRS. Figures for the financial year 2003 are unchanged, i.e. they are presented in accordance
   with previously-applied accounting principals. In the balance sheets for these years, all investment assets have been entered at market value and with surplus values in interest-
   bearing securities reported as a separate item on the liability side.
2)
   Calculations have been made according to If’s internal principles for evaluation of asset management.




                                                                                                                                                          If’s Annual Report 2007 35
                             CONTACT:
 Sweden: tel. +46 771 430 000, www.if.se
  Norway: tel. +47 980 024 00, www.if.no
Denmark: tel. +45 7701 21212, www.if.dk
   Finland: tel. +358 105 1510, www.if.fi

				
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