The 2011-2016 World Outlook for Canned
Pumpkin and Squash
by
Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
Chaired Professor of Management Science
INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)
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About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.
Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.
About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.
Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.
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Contents v
Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION 10
1.1 Overview 10
1.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 10
1.3 The Methodology 11
1.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 12
1.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 13
1.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 13
1.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 14
1.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 14
1.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 15
1.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 15
2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 16
2.1 The Worldwide Market Potential 16
3 AFRICA 18
3.1 Executive Summary 18
3.2 Algeria 19
3.3 Angola 20
3.4 Benin 21
3.5 Botswana 21
3.6 Burkina Faso 22
3.7 Burundi 23
3.8 Cameroon 23
3.9 Cape Verde 24
3.10 Central African Republic 25
3.11 Chad 25
3.12 Comoros 26
3.13 Congo (formerly Zaire) 27
3.14 Cote d'Ivoire 28
3.15 Djibouti 28
3.16 Egypt 29
3.17 Equatorial Guinea 30
3.18 Ethiopia 30
3.19 Gabon 31
3.20 Ghana 32
3.21 Guinea 33
3.22 Guinea-Bissau 33
3.23 Kenya 34
3.24 Lesotho 35
3.25 Liberia 35
3.26 Libya 36
3.27 Madagascar 37
3.28 Malawi 37
3.29 Mali 38
3.30 Mauritania 39
3.31 Mauritius 39
3.32 Morocco 40
3.33 Mozambique 41
3.34 Namibia 41
3.35 Niger 42
3.36 Nigeria 43
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3.37 Republic of Congo 44
3.38 Reunion 44
3.39 Rwanda 45
3.40 Sao Tome E Principe 46
3.41 Senegal 46
3.42 Sierra Leone 47
3.43 Somalia 48
3.44 South Africa 48
3.45 Sudan 49
3.46 Swaziland 50
3.47 Tanzania 50
3.48 The Gambia 51
3.49 Togo 52
3.50 Tunisia 53
3.51 Uganda 54
3.52 Western Sahara 54
3.53 Zambia 55
3.54 Zimbabwe 56
4 ASIA 57
4.1 Executive Summary 57
4.2 Bangladesh 58
4.3 Bhutan 59
4.4 Brunei 60
4.5 Burma 60
4.6 Cambodia 61
4.7 China 62
4.8 Hong Kong 63
4.9 India 63
4.10 Indonesia 64
4.11 Japan 65
4.12 Laos 66
4.13 Macau 67
4.14 Malaysia 68
4.15 Maldives 69
4.16 Mongolia 69
4.17 Nepal 70
4.18 North Korea 71
4.19 Papua New Guinea 72
4.20 Philippines 72
4.21 Seychelles 73
4.22 Singapore 74
4.23 South Korea 74
4.24 Sri Lanka 75
4.25 Taiwan 76
4.26 Thailand 77
4.27 Vietnam 77
5 EUROPE 79
5.1 Executive Summary 79
5.2 Albania 80
5.3 Andorra 81
5.4 Austria 81
5.5 Belarus 82
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5.6 Belgium 83
5.7 Bosnia and Herzegovina 84
5.8 Bulgaria 85
5.9 Croatia 86
5.10 Cyprus 86
5.11 Czech Republic 87
5.12 Denmark 88
5.13 Estonia 89
5.14 Finland 89
5.15 France 90
5.16 Georgia 91
5.17 Germany 92
5.18 Greece 93
5.19 Hungary 94
5.20 Iceland 95
5.21 Ireland 96
5.22 Italy 96
5.23 Kazakhstan 97
5.24 Latvia 98
5.25 Liechtenstein 99
5.26 Lithuania 100
5.27 Luxembourg 100
5.28 Malta 101
5.29 Moldova 102
5.30 Monaco 102
5.31 Norway 103
5.32 Poland 104
5.33 Portugal 105
5.34 Romania 106
5.35 Russia 107
5.36 San Marino 108
5.37 Slovakia 108
5.38 Slovenia 109
5.39 Spain 110
5.40 Sweden 111
5.41 Switzerland 112
5.42 The Netherlands 113
5.43 The United Kingdom 114
5.44 Ukraine 115
6 OCEANA 116
6.1 Executive Summary 116
6.2 American Samoa 117
6.3 Australia 118
6.4 Christmas Island 119
6.5 Cook Islands 119
6.6 Fiji 120
6.7 French Polynesia 120
6.8 Guam 121
6.9 Kiribati 122
6.10 Marshall Islands 122
6.11 Micronesia Federation 123
6.12 Nauru 123
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6.13 New Caledonia 124
6.14 New Zealand 124
6.15 Niue 125
6.16 Norfolk Island 126
6.17 Palau 126
6.18 Solomon Islands 127
6.19 The Northern Mariana Island 127
6.20 Tokelau 128
6.21 Tonga 128
6.22 Tuvalu 129
6.23 Vanuatu 129
6.24 Wallis and Futuna 130
6.25 Western Samoa 130
7 THE AMERICAS 131
7.1 Executive Summary 131
7.2 Antigua and Barbuda 132
7.3 Argentina 133
7.4 Aruba 134
7.5 Barbados 134
7.6 Belize 135
7.7 Bermuda 136
7.8 Bolivia 136
7.9 Brazil 137
7.10 Canada 138
7.11 Chile 139
7.12 Colombia 140
7.13 Costa Rica 141
7.14 Cuba 142
7.15 Dominica 143
7.16 Dominican Republic 143
7.17 Ecuador 144
7.18 El Salvador 145
7.19 French Guiana 145
7.20 Greenland 146
7.21 Grenada 147
7.22 Guadeloupe 147
7.23 Guatemala 148
7.24 Guyana 149
7.25 Haiti 149
7.26 Honduras 150
7.27 Jamaica 151
7.28 Martinique 151
7.29 Mexico 152
7.30 Nicaragua 153
7.31 Panama 154
7.32 Paraguay 155
7.33 Peru 156
7.34 Puerto Rico 157
7.35 St. Kitts and Nevis 158
7.36 St. Lucia 158
7.37 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 159
7.38 Suriname 160
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7.39 The Bahamas 160
7.40 The British Virgin Islands 161
7.41 The Cayman Islands 162
7.42 The Falkland Islands 162
7.43 The Netherlands Antilles 163
7.44 The U.S. Virgin Islands 164
7.45 The United States 164
7.46 Trinidad and Tobago 165
7.47 Uruguay 166
7.48 Venezuela 166
8 THE MIDDLE EAST 168
8.1 Executive Summary 168
8.2 Afghanistan 169
8.3 Armenia 170
8.4 Azerbaijan 171
8.5 Bahrain 171
8.6 Iran 172
8.7 Iraq 173
8.8 Israel 174
8.9 Jordan 174
8.10 Kuwait 175
8.11 Kyrgyzstan 176
8.12 Lebanon 176
8.13 Oman 177
8.14 Pakistan 178
8.15 Palestine 179
8.16 Qatar 179
8.17 Saudi Arabia 180
8.18 Syrian Arab Republic 181
8.19 Tajikistan 182
8.20 The United Arab Emirates 182
8.21 Turkey 183
8.22 Turkmenistan 184
8.23 Uzbekistan 184
8.24 Yemen 185
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Introduction 10
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 OVERVIEW
This study covers the world outlook for canned pumpkin and squash across more than 200 countries. For each year
reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question
(in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative
benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project
fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This
report does not discuss the specific players in the market