The 2011-2016 World Outlook for Foodservice Disposables by ICONGroup

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 The 2011-2016 World Outlook
  for Foodservice Disposables




                                         By
                              Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




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                                   ISBN 1-114-86319-X



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                                        About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is Physioeconomics: the basis for long-run economic growth (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology, and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North
America, and Europe.


                                         About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.


                                      Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




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                   About Icon Group International, Inc.
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within a particular country.




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Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION                                                                                      11
    1.1       Overview                                                                                 11
    1.2       What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                    11
    1.3       The Methodology                                                                          12
      1.3.1     Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                          14
      1.3.2     Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                         15
      1.3.3     Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                                       16
      1.3.4     Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                        16
      1.3.5     Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                               17
      1.3.6     Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                                    17
      1.3.7     Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities                                 17
2     SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                               19
    2.1       The Worldwide Market Potential                                                           19
3     AFRICA                                                                                            21
    3.1       Executive Summary                                                                        21
    3.2       Algeria                                                                                  22
    3.3       Angola                                                                                   23
    3.4       Benin                                                                                    24
    3.5       Botswana                                                                                 24
    3.6       Burkina Faso                                                                             25
    3.7       Burundi                                                                                  26
    3.8       Cameroon                                                                                 26
    3.9       Cape Verde                                                                               27
    3.10      Central African Republic                                                                 28
    3.11      Chad                                                                                     28
    3.12      Comoros                                                                                  29
    3.13      Congo (formerly Zaire)                                                                   30
    3.14      Cote d'Ivoire                                                                            31
    3.15      Djibouti                                                                                 31
    3.16      Egypt                                                                                    32
    3.17      Equatorial Guinea                                                                        33
    3.18      Ethiopia                                                                                 33
    3.19      Gabon                                                                                    34
    3.20      Ghana                                                                                    35
    3.21      Guinea                                                                                   36
    3.22      Guinea-Bissau                                                                            36
    3.23      Kenya                                                                                    37
    3.24      Lesotho                                                                                  38
    3.25      Liberia                                                                                  38
    3.26      Libya                                                                                    39
    3.27      Madagascar                                                                               40
    3.28      Malawi                                                                                   40
    3.29      Mali                                                                                     41

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    3.30   Mauritania                                         42
    3.31   Mauritius                                          42
    3.32   Morocco                                            43
    3.33   Mozambique                                         44
    3.34   Namibia                                            44
    3.35   Niger                                              45
    3.36   Nigeria                                            46
    3.37   Republic of Congo                                  47
    3.38   Reunion                                            47
    3.39   Rwanda                                             48
    3.40   Sao Tome E Principe                                49
    3.41   Senegal                                            49
    3.42   Sierra Leone                                       50
    3.43   Somalia                                            51
    3.44   South Africa                                       51
    3.45   Sudan                                              52
    3.46   Swaziland                                          53
    3.47   Tanzania                                           53
    3.48   The Gambia                                         54
    3.49   Togo                                               55
    3.50   Tunisia                                            56
    3.51   Uganda                                             57
    3.52   Western Sahara                                     57
    3.53   Zambia                                             58
    3.54   Zimbabwe                                           59
4     ASIA                                                     60
    4.1    Executive Summary                                  60
    4.2    Bangladesh                                         61
    4.3    Bhutan                                             62
    4.4    Brunei                                             63
    4.5    Burma                                              63
    4.6    Cambodia                                           64
    4.7    China                                              65
    4.8    Hong Kong                                          66
    4.9    India                                              66
    4.10   Indonesia                                          67
    4.11   Japan                                              68
    4.12   Laos                                               69
    4.13   Macau                                              70
    4.14   Malaysia                                           71
    4.15   Maldives                                           72
    4.16   Mongolia                                           72
    4.17   Nepal                                              73
    4.18   North Korea                                        74

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    4.19   Papua New Guinea                                      75
    4.20   Philippines                                           75
    4.21   Seychelles                                            76
    4.22   Singapore                                             77
    4.23   South Korea                                           77
    4.24   Sri Lanka                                             78
    4.25   Taiwan                                                79
    4.26   Thailand                                              80
    4.27   Vietnam                                               80
5     EUROPE                                                      82
    5.1    Executive Summary                                     82
    5.2    Albania                                               83
    5.3    Andorra                                               84
    5.4    Austria                                               85
    5.5    Belarus                                               86
    5.6    Belgium                                               87
    5.7    Bosnia and Herzegovina                                88
    5.8    Bulgaria                                              88
    5.9    Croatia                                               89
    5.10   Cyprus                                                90
    5.11   Czech Republic                                        90
    5.12   Denmark                                               91
    5.13   Estonia                                               92
    5.14   Finland                                               93
    5.15   France                                                94
    5.16   Georgia                                               95
    5.17   Germany                                               95
    5.18   Greece                                                96
    5.19   Hungary                                               97
    5.20   Iceland                                               98
    5.21   Ireland                                               99
    5.22   Italy                                                 99
    5.23   Kazakhstan                                           100
    5.24   Latvia                                               101
    5.25   Liechtenstein                                        102
    5.26   Lithuania                                            103
    5.27   Luxembourg                                           103
    5.28   Malta                                                104
    5.29   Moldova                                              105
    5.30   Monaco                                               105
    5.31   Norway                                               106
    5.32   Poland                                               107
    5.33   Portugal                                             108
    5.34   Romania                                              109

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    5.35   Russia                                                    110
    5.36   San Marino                                                111
    5.37   Slovakia                                                  111
    5.38   Slovenia                                                  112
    5.39   Spain                                                     113
    5.40   Sweden                                                    114
    5.41   Switzerland                                               115
    5.42   The Netherlands                                           116
    5.43   The United Kingdom                                        117
    5.44   Ukraine                                                   118
6     OCEANA                                                         119
    6.1    Executive Summary                                         119
    6.2    American Samoa                                            120
    6.3    Australia                                                 121
    6.4    Christmas Island                                          122
    6.5    Cook Islands                                              122
    6.6    Fiji                                                      123
    6.7    French Polynesia                                          124
    6.8    Guam                                                      124
    6.9    Kiribati                                                  125
    6.10   Marshall Islands                                          126
    6.11   Micronesia Federation                                     126
    6.12   Nauru                                                     127
    6.13   New Caledonia                                             128
    6.14   New Zealand                                               128
    6.15   Niue                                                      129
    6.16   Norfolk Island                                            130
    6.17   Palau                                                     130
    6.18   Solomon Islands                                           131
    6.19   The Northern Mariana Island                               132
    6.20   Tokelau                                                   132
    6.21   Tonga                                                     133
    6.22   Tuvalu                                                    134
    6.23   Vanuatu                                                   134
    6.24   Wallis and Futuna                                         135
    6.25   Western Samoa                                             136
7     THE AMERICAS & THE CARIBBEAN                                   137
    7.1    Executive Summary                                         137
    7.2    Antigua and Barbuda                                       138
    7.3    Argentina                                                 139
    7.4    Aruba                                                     140
    7.5    Barbados                                                  140
    7.6    Belize                                                    141


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    7.7    Bermuda                                                      142
    7.8    Bolivia                                                      142
    7.9    Brazil                                                       143
    7.10   Canada                                                       144
    7.11   Chile                                                        145
    7.12   Colombia                                                     146
    7.13   Costa Rica                                                   147
    7.14   Cuba                                                         148
    7.15   Dominica                                                     149
    7.16   Dominican Republic                                           149
    7.17   Ecuador                                                      150
    7.18   El Salvador                                                  151
    7.19   French Guiana                                                151
    7.20   Greenland                                                    152
    7.21   Grenada                                                      153
    7.22   Guadeloupe                                                   153
    7.23   Guatemala                                                    154
    7.24   Guyana                                                       155
    7.25   Haiti                                                        155
    7.26   Honduras                                                     156
    7.27   Jamaica                                                      157
    7.28   Martinique                                                   157
    7.29   Mexico                                                       158
    7.30   Nicaragua                                                    159
    7.31   Panama                                                       160
    7.32   Paraguay                                                     161
    7.33   Peru                                                         162
    7.34   Puerto Rico                                                  163
    7.35   St. Kitts and Nevis                                          164
    7.36   St. Lucia                                                    164
    7.37   St. Vincent and the Grenadines                               165
    7.38   Suriname                                                     166
    7.39   The Bahamas                                                  166
    7.40   The British Virgin Islands                                   167
    7.41   The Cayman Islands                                           168
    7.42   The Falkland Islands                                         168
    7.43   The Netherlands Antilles                                     169
    7.44   The U.S. Virgin Islands                                      170
    7.45   The United States                                            170
    7.46   Trinidad and Tobago                                          171
    7.47   Uruguay                                                      172
    7.48   Venezuela                                                    172
8     THE MIDDLE EAST                                                   174
    8.1    Executive Summary                                            174

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    8.2    Afghanistan                                                                 175
    8.3    Armenia                                                                     176
    8.4    Azerbaijan                                                                  177
    8.5    Bahrain                                                                     177
    8.6    Iran                                                                        178
    8.7    Iraq                                                                        179
    8.8    Israel                                                                      180
    8.9    Jordan                                                                      180
    8.10   Kuwait                                                                      181
    8.11   Kyrgyzstan                                                                  182
    8.12   Lebanon                                                                     182
    8.13   Oman                                                                        183
    8.14   Pakistan                                                                    184
    8.15   Palestine                                                                   185
    8.16   Qatar                                                                       185
    8.17   Saudi Arabia                                                                186
    8.18   Syrian Arab Republic                                                        187
    8.19   Tajikistan                                                                  188
    8.20   The United Arab Emirates                                                    188
    8.21   Turkey                                                                      189
    8.22   Turkmenistan                                                                190
    8.23   Uzbekistan                                                                  190
    8.24   Yemen                                                                       191
9     DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS                           193
    9.1    Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                                   193
    9.2    Icon Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions                    194




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1     INTRODUCTION
1.1     OVERVIEW
This study covers the world outlook for foodservice disposables across more than 200 countries.
For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings
(P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is
of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge
a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic
dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This
report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific
details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might
affect realized sales.
								
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