The 2011-2016 World Outlook for Electric Drives

Document Sample
The 2011-2016 World Outlook for Electric Drives Powered By Docstoc
					                                                                                        i




 The 2011-2016 World Outlook
      for Electric Drives




                                         By
                              Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




www.icongrouponline.com                              © 2010 Icon Group International, Inc.
                                                                                           ii




                                 COPYRIGHT NOTICE
                                   ISBN 1-114-86141-3



All of Icon Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our
publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyright laws
and can lead to penalties and fines.

Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications,
please contact us to request permission. Icon Group International, Inc. often grants
permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press
releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed
permission from Icon Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice,
disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report.




                              IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER




Neither Icon Group International, Inc. nor its employees or the author of this report
can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the
information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the
accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information,
accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader
should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of
this report.




www.icongrouponline.com                                  © 2010 Icon Group International, Inc.
                                                                                                                    iii




                                        About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is Physioeconomics: the basis for long-run economic growth (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology, and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North
America, and Europe.


                                         About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.


                                      Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




www.icongrouponline.com                                                       © 2010 Icon Group International, Inc.
                                                                                                                     iv




                   About Icon Group International, Inc.
Icon Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs.
U.S.-owned and operated, Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases, and global/regional market
data, industry and country publications.

Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 190 countries, management studies are generally
organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. The human resource series covers minimum
wages, child labor, unionization and collective bargaining. The international law series covers media control and
censorship, search and seizure, and trial justice and punishment. The diversity management series covers a variety of
environmental context drivers that effect global operations. These include women’s rights, children’s rights,
discrimination/racism, and religious forces and risks. Global strategic planning studies cover economic risk
assessments, political risk assessments, foreign direct investment strategy, intellectual property strategy, and export
strategies. Financial management studies cover taxes and tariffs. Global marketing studies focus on target segments
(e.g. seniors, children, women) and strategic marketing planning.

Country Studies: Often managers need an in-depth, yet broad and up-to-date understanding of a country’s strategic
market potential and situation before the first field trip or investment proposal. There are over 190 country studies
available. Each study consists of analysis, statistics, forecasts, and information of relevance to managers. The studies
are continually updated to insure that the reports have the most relevant information available. In addition to raw
information, the reports provide relevant analyses which put a more general perspective on a country (seen in the
context of relative performance vis-à-vis benchmarks).

Industry Studies: Companies are racing to become more international, if not global in their strategies. For over 2000
product/industry categories, these reports give the reader a concise summary of latent market forecasts, pro-forma
financials, import competition profiles, contacts, key references and trends across 200 countries of the world. Some
reports focus on a particular product and region (up to four regions per product), while others focus on a product
within a particular country.




www.icongrouponline.com                                                       © 2010 Icon Group International, Inc.
                                                                                                             v


Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION                                                                                      11
    1.1       Overview                                                                                 11
    1.2       What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                    11
    1.3       The Methodology                                                                          12
      1.3.1     Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                          14
      1.3.2     Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                         15
      1.3.3     Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                                       16
      1.3.4     Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                        16
      1.3.5     Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                               17
      1.3.6     Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                                    17
      1.3.7     Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities                                 17
2     SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                               19
    2.1       The Worldwide Market Potential                                                           19
3     AFRICA                                                                                            21
    3.1       Executive Summary                                                                        21
    3.2       Algeria                                                                                  22
    3.3       Angola                                                                                   23
    3.4       Benin                                                                                    24
    3.5       Botswana                                                                                 24
    3.6       Burkina Faso                                                                             25
    3.7       Burundi                                                                                  26
    3.8       Cameroon                                                                                 26
    3.9       Cape Verde                                                                               27
    3.10      Central African Republic                                                                 28
    3.11      Chad                                                                                     28
    3.12      Comoros                                                                                  29
    3.13      Congo (formerly Zaire)                                                                   30
    3.14      Cote d'Ivoire                                                                            31
    3.15      Djibouti                                                                                 31
    3.16      Egypt                                                                                    32
    3.17      Equatorial Guinea                                                                        33
    3.18      Ethiopia                                                                                 33
    3.19      Gabon                                                                                    34
    3.20      Ghana                                                                                    35
    3.21      Guinea                                                                                   36
    3.22      Guinea-Bissau                                                                            36
    3.23      Kenya                                                                                    37
    3.24      Lesotho                                                                                  38
    3.25      Liberia                                                                                  38
    3.26      Libya                                                                                    39
    3.27      Madagascar                                                                               40
    3.28      Malawi                                                                                   40
    3.29      Mali                                                                                     41

www.icongrouponline.com                                                   © 2010 Icon Group International, Inc.
                                                  Contents          vi

    3.30   Mauritania                                         42
    3.31   Mauritius                                          42
    3.32   Morocco                                            43
    3.33   Mozambique                                         44
    3.34   Namibia                                            44
    3.35   Niger                                              45
    3.36   Nigeria                                            46
    3.37   Republic of Congo                                  47
    3.38   Reunion                                            47
    3.39   Rwanda                                             48
    3.40   Sao Tome E Principe                                49
    3.41   Senegal                                            49
    3.42   Sierra Leone                                       50
    3.43   Somalia                                            51
    3.44   South Africa                                       51
    3.45   Sudan                                              52
    3.46   Swaziland                                          53
    3.47   Tanzania                                           53
    3.48   The Gambia                                         54
    3.49   Togo                                               55
    3.50   Tunisia                                            56
    3.51   Uganda                                             57
    3.52   Western Sahara                                     57
    3.53   Zambia                                             58
    3.54   Zimbabwe                                           59
4     ASIA & THE MIDDLE EAST                                   60
    4.1    Executive Summary                                  60
    4.2    Afghanistan                                        61
    4.3    Armenia                                            62
    4.4    Azerbaijan                                         63
    4.5    Bahrain                                            64
    4.6    Bangladesh                                         65
    4.7    Bhutan                                             66
    4.8    Brunei                                             66
    4.9    Burma                                              67
    4.10   Cambodia                                           68
    4.11   China                                              68
    4.12   Hong Kong                                          69
    4.13   India                                              70
    4.14   Indonesia                                          71
    4.15   Iran                                               72
    4.16   Iraq                                               73
    4.17   Israel                                             74
    4.18   Japan                                              74

www.icongrouponline.com          © 2010 Icon Group International, Inc.
                                                       Contents          vii

    4.19   Jordan                                                  75
    4.20   Kuwait                                                  76
    4.21   Kyrgyzstan                                              77
    4.22   Laos                                                    77
    4.23   Lebanon                                                 78
    4.24   Macau                                                   79
    4.25   Malaysia                                                79
    4.26   Maldives                                                80
    4.27   Mongolia                                                81
    4.28   Nepal                                                   81
    4.29   North Korea                                             82
    4.30   Oman                                                    83
    4.31   Pakistan                                                83
    4.32   Palestine                                               84
    4.33   Papua New Guinea                                        85
    4.34   Philippines                                             85
    4.35   Qatar                                                   86
    4.36   Saudi Arabia                                            87
    4.37   Seychelles                                              88
    4.38   Singapore                                               88
    4.39   South Korea                                             89
    4.40   Sri Lanka                                               90
    4.41   Syrian Arab Republic                                    90
    4.42   Taiwan                                                  91
    4.43   Tajikistan                                              92
    4.44   Thailand                                                93
    4.45   The United Arab Emirates                                94
    4.46   Turkey                                                  94
    4.47   Turkmenistan                                            95
    4.48   Uzbekistan                                              96
    4.49   Vietnam                                                 97
    4.50   Yemen                                                   97
5     EUROPE                                                        99
    5.1    Executive Summary                                       99
    5.2    Albania                                                100
    5.3    Andorra                                                101
    5.4    Austria                                                102
    5.5    Belarus                                                103
    5.6    Belgium                                                104
    5.7    Bosnia and Herzegovina                                 105
    5.8    Bulgaria                                               105
    5.9    Croatia                                                106
    5.10   Cyprus                                                 107
    5.11   Czech Republic                                         107

www.icongrouponline.com               © 2010 Icon Group International, Inc.
                                                 Contents         viii

    5.12   Denmark                                          108
    5.13   Estonia                                          109
    5.14   Finland                                          110
    5.15   France                                           111
    5.16   Georgia                                          112
    5.17   Germany                                          112
    5.18   Greece                                           113
    5.19   Hungary                                          114
    5.20   Iceland                                          115
    5.21   Ireland                                          116
    5.22   Italy                                            116
    5.23   Kazakhstan                                       117
    5.24   Latvia                                           118
    5.25   Liechtenstein                                    119
    5.26   Lithuania                                        120
    5.27   Luxembourg                                       120
    5.28   Malta                                            121
    5.29   Moldova                                          122
    5.30   Monaco                                           122
    5.31   Norway                                           123
    5.32   Poland                                           124
    5.33   Portugal                                         125
    5.34   Romania                                          126
    5.35   Russia                                           127
    5.36   San Marino                                       128
    5.37   Slovakia                                         128
    5.38   Slovenia                                         129
    5.39   Spain                                            130
    5.40   Sweden                                           131
    5.41   Switzerland                                      132
    5.42   The Netherlands                                  133
    5.43   The United Kingdom                               134
    5.44   Ukraine                                          135
6     LATIN AMERICA                                         136
    6.1    Executive Summary                                136
    6.2    Argentina                                        137
    6.3    Belize                                           138
    6.4    Bolivia                                          139
    6.5    Brazil                                           140
    6.6    Chile                                            141
    6.7    Colombia                                         142
    6.8    Costa Rica                                       143
    6.9    Ecuador                                          143
    6.10   El Salvador                                      144

www.icongrouponline.com         © 2010 Icon Group International, Inc.
                                                             Contents         ix

    6.11   French Guiana                                                145
    6.12   Guatemala                                                    145
    6.13   Guyana                                                       146
    6.14   Honduras                                                     147
    6.15   Mexico                                                       148
    6.16   Nicaragua                                                    149
    6.17   Panama                                                       149
    6.18   Paraguay                                                     150
    6.19   Peru                                                         151
    6.20   Suriname                                                     152
    6.21   The Falkland Islands                                         152
    6.22   Uruguay                                                      153
    6.23   Venezuela                                                    154
7     NORTH AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN                                     155
    7.1    Executive Summary                                            155
    7.2    Antigua and Barbuda                                          156
    7.3    Aruba                                                        157
    7.4    Barbados                                                     158
    7.5    Bermuda                                                      158
    7.6    Canada                                                       159
    7.7    Cuba                                                         160
    7.8    Dominica                                                     161
    7.9    Dominican Republic                                           161
    7.10   Greenland                                                    162
    7.11   Grenada                                                      163
    7.12   Guadeloupe                                                   164
    7.13   Haiti                                                        165
    7.14   Jamaica                                                      165
    7.15   Martinique                                                   166
    7.16   Puerto Rico                                                  167
    7.17   St. Kitts and Nevis                                          168
    7.18   St. Lucia                                                    168
    7.19   St. Vincent and the Grenadines                               169
    7.20   The Bahamas                                                  170
    7.21   The British Virgin Islands                                   170
    7.22   The Cayman Islands                                           171
    7.23   The Netherlands Antilles                                     172
    7.24   The U.S. Virgin Islands                                      172
    7.25   The United States                                            173
    7.26   Trinidad and Tobago                                          174
8     OCEANA                                                            175
    8.1    Executive Summary                                            175
    8.2    American Samoa                                               176


www.icongrouponline.com                     © 2010 Icon Group International, Inc.
                                                                            Contents         x

    8.3    Australia                                                                   177
    8.4    Christmas Island                                                            178
    8.5    Cook Islands                                                                178
    8.6    Fiji                                                                        179
    8.7    French Polynesia                                                            180
    8.8    Guam                                                                        180
    8.9    Kiribati                                                                    181
    8.10   Marshall Islands                                                            182
    8.11   Micronesia Federation                                                       182
    8.12   Nauru                                                                       183
    8.13   New Caledonia                                                               184
    8.14   New Zealand                                                                 184
    8.15   Niue                                                                        185
    8.16   Norfolk Island                                                              186
    8.17   Palau                                                                       186
    8.18   Solomon Islands                                                             187
    8.19   The Northern Mariana Island                                                 188
    8.20   Tokelau                                                                     188
    8.21   Tonga                                                                       189
    8.22   Tuvalu                                                                      190
    8.23   Vanuatu                                                                     190
    8.24   Wallis and Futuna                                                           191
    8.25   Western Samoa                                                               192
9     DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS                           193
    9.1    Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                                   193
    9.2    Icon Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions                    194




www.icongrouponline.com                                    © 2010 Icon Group International, Inc.
                                                                                                   11



1     INTRODUCTION
1.1     OVERVIEW
This study covers the world outlook for electric drives across more than 200 countries. For each
year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.),
for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the
region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a
country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic
dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This
report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific
details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might
affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run
view, irrespective of the players or products involved.

This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or
consistent manner in virtually all of the 230 countries of the wo
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: This econometric study covers the world outlook for electric drives across more than 200 countries. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the 230 countries of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for electric drives. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s regional and national markets. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
BUY THIS DOCUMENT NOW PRICE: $795 100% MONEY BACK GUARANTEED
PARTNER ICON Group International Inc.
Managers need up-to-date and comprehensive information to better plan and implement strategies in a global economy. ICON Group International is the world’s single largest publisher of global market research and business intelligence. It does so with the heavy use of econometric models and techniques, which produce high value international research and reports. These high-end reports and exportable spreadsheets cover 2,000 product categories across some 200 countries, 2,000 cities and over 16,000 companies.