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					Facts & Figures - Missouri Lodging Overview
What Do We Do?

• Lodging Data Source ~20 years


• 20,000+ hotels a week


• Every chain & Over 1300’s Independents


• Relied upon by lenders, appraisers, other professionals
Definitions
 Supply: # Total Rooms Available
 Demand: # Total Rooms Sold
 Occupancy (%):
        = Rooms Available / Rooms Sold
 ADR: Average Daily Rate
        = Total Revenue / Total Rooms Sold
 RevPAR: Revenue Per Available Room
        = Total Revenue / Total Rooms Available
Presentation Agenda
• National Performance


• Regional Performance


• State Performance


• Local Performance


• Projections
Total United States
Room Supply/Demand Percent Change
Twelve Month Moving Average To April 2005

6

4

2

0
            Supply % Change
-2          Demand % Change


-4

-6
     1998     1999    2000    2001   2002   2003   2004   2005
      Total United States
      Active Development Pipeline - Rooms
      Change From Last Year


                                Apr 2005     Apr 2004       Change     % Chg

      In Construction             97,863          80,178     17,685     22.1%

      Final Planning              15,769          17,952     (2,183)   -12.2%

      Planning                   174,857          156,463    18,394     11.8%

      In Pre-Planning             77,384          119,554   (42,170)   -35.3%

      Total Development         365,873           374,147    (8,274)   -2.2%




Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
  Total United States
  Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR Percent Change
  12-Month Moving Average to April 2005            Recession
                                                       9/11
                                                   Afghanistan
                                       Recession      SARS                Iraq




                                                    }
                                       }


                                                                         }
 9%
 7%
 5%
 3%
  1%
 -1%
 -3%
 -5%
 -7%
 -9%
-11%
-13%
-15%
    1998    1999      2000      2001               2002          2003            2004   2005
                             Occupancy (%)         ADR ($)       RevPAR ($)
     Total United States
     Occupancy Percent 28-Day Moving Average
     Jan. 2, 2005– May 29, 2005
70
                   Last Year
65                 This Year


60


55


50


45


40
     n    n    n    n    n    b    b    b    b   ar   r    r    r    r pr pr pr          y    y   y    y     y
2 -Ja 9-Ja 6-Ja 3-Ja 0-Ja 6-Fe 3-Fe 0-Fe 7-Fe 6-M 3-Ma 0-Ma 7-Ma 3-Ap 0-A 17-A 24-A 1-M a8-M a5-Ma 2-Ma 9-Ma
                                                                    1
          1    2    3        1    2     2        1   2    2                                  1   2    2
        Total United States
        ADR 28-Day Moving Average
        Jan. 2, 2005 – May 29, 2005

95



90



85

                                                                            Last Year
                                                                            This Year
80



75
      an -Jan -Jan -Jan -Jan -Feb -Feb -Feb -Feb -M ar -Mar -Mar -Mar -Apr -Apr -Apr -Apr M ay M ay May May May
2-J     9    16   23   30   6    13   20   27   6    13   20   27    3   10    17   24   1-   8- 15- 22- 29-
  Total United States
  RevPAR 28-Day Moving Average
  Jan. 2, 2005 – May 29, 2005
75

70

65
                        Last Year
60                      This Year

55

50

45

40

35

30
      an -Jan -Jan -Jan -Jan -Feb -Feb -Feb -Feb -M ar -Mar -Mar -Mar -Apr -Apr -Apr -Apr M ay M ay May May May
2-J     9 16 23 30          6 13 20 27          6 13 20 27           3 10 17 24         1- 8- 15- 22- 29-
 Total U.S.
 Average Daily Lodging Demand in Millions
 Year End 2000, 2002 and 2004

          2000         2002   2004                                  3.013
3.0
                                                      2.871 2.881

                                              2.731
                              2.686
                                      2.566
2.6



2.2                  2.130
       2.031 1.987



1.8
          Sunday               Weekday                 Weekend
 Total United States
 Rooms Sold/Day Differential (Thousands)
 Year End 2000 Vs. 2004

250
                                                        219

200

150
       99                                         102
100
                                 62        62
                        42
50
                16

 0
      Sun      Mon      Tue     Wed        Thur   Fri   Sat
Total United States
Rooms Sold/Day Differential (Thousands)
Year End 2003 Vs. 2004

250
                                216

200

150    132             126
               114
                                                       103
100
                                          70

50                                               40


 0
      Sun      Mon     Tue     Wed        Thur   Fri   Sat
  Regional Supply Growth
  12-Month Ending April 2005 Percentage Change




 2.5 to 7.5
 1.0 to 2.4
 0.1 to 0.9
-0.8 to 0.0
-5.7 to -0.9
   Regional Demand Growth
   12-Month Ending April 2005 Percentage Change




 5.4 to 12.6
 3.8 to 5.3
 1.4 to 3.7
 0.0 to 1.3
-7.6 to -0.1
   Regional RevPAR Change
   12-Month Ending April 2005 Percentage Change




 8.3 to 13.8
 5.8 to 8.2
 3.8 to 5.7
 1.5 to 3.7
-3.5 to 1.4
        Construction Pipeline Activity for Missouri
                     Existing     Recently                               Final                                Pre-
                     Supply       Opened          In Construction      Planning     Planning   Total        Planning
Luxury                   5
Upper Upscale           33                 1                     2                       1             3
Upscale                 36
Midscale w/ F&B         95                 1                     1          1             2            4          1
Midscale w/o F&B       193             12                        9          1             2            12         1
Economy                259                 2                                              1            1          1
Unaffiliated           519             1                         2                       20            22         9
Total                 1,140           17                       14              2         26            42         12

                    Existing    Recently                               Final                                  Pre-
                    Supply      Opened         In Construction       Planning      Planning    Total        Planning
Luxury                1,244                                                            236        236
Upper Upscale         12,239         195                  510                          207        717
Upscale               6,802                              1,228
Midscale w/ F&B        12,252         44                  117            143           250        510
Midscale w/o F&B       17,333        967                  918            102           264       1,284          140

Economy                18,602        89                                                                          70

Unaffiliated           32,689        57                  144                          1,643      1,787         1,085
Total                 101,161      1,352                 2,917           245           2,600     4,534         1,295

Source: TWR/Dodge Construction Pipeline/Smith Travel Research
  Missouri
  Room Supply and Demand Percent Change
  Monthly 2000 – April 2005

20
                                      Demand % Chg
15                                    Supply % Chg

                                      Poly. (Demand %
10
                                      Chg)
                                      Poly. (Supply %
 5                                    Chg)

 0

 -5

-10

-15

-20
   2000      2001       2002       2003          2004   2005
Missouri
Occupancy and ADR Percent Change
Monthly 2000 – April 2005

20
                                   ADR % Chg
15
                                   Occupancy % Chg

10                                 Poly. (Occupancy %
                                   Chg)
                                   Poly. (ADR % Chg)
 5

 0

 -5

-10

-15

-20
   2000     2001       2002        2003          2004   2005
     Missouri
     Day of Week Analysis – Occupancy/ADR
     Year End 2004

80
                      $68.40      $69.76      $70.07      $68.52                  $67.74
70        $64.72
                                                                      $66.79


60                                                                             64.6
                                                                   62.0
                                           57.9
                               56.3                    54.8
50
                   49.6
40
       38.5
30

20
10
 0
        Sun         Mon         Tue         Wed         Thu          Fri         Sat
  Missouri
  Day Of Week Analysis – RevPAR Percent Change
  Year End 2003 vs. Year End 2004

                               4.9



4.0
                       3.4
                                       3.1



2.0    1.6     1.8
                                                 1.4   1.4




-0.1
       Sun    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thur       Fri   Sat
Missouri Location Segments
Supply/Demand Percent Change
Twelve Months Ended April


19
                                                        Supply      Demand
          14.3                      13.9
14                      12.2



 9
                                                                            5.4

 4                2.6                             2.2         1.9
                                1           1.2                       1.3
      0                                                 0.4

-1
     Urban       Suburban      Airport     Interstate   Resort      Small Metro
 Missouri Location Segments
 Occupancy/ADR Percent Change
 Twelve Months Ended April

20
                                                       Occupancy
                                                       ADR
15   14.4
            13.5              12.7 13.4


                    9.3 9.8
10


 5                                                                       4.0 4.0
                                                 3.3             3.1

                                           1.0             1.5

 0
     Urban         Suburban   Airport     Interstate       Resort      Small Metro
Missouri Location Segments
RevPAR/Room Revenue Percent Change
Twelve Months Ended April
35
     29.8 29.7                     29.2
                                                       RevPAR
30                          27.9                       Room Revenue
25                  23.2
                 20.0
20

15
                                                                           9.6
10                                                                   8.3
                                                 5.5
                                           4.3           4.6 5.0
 5

 0
       Urban     Suburban    Airport      Interstate     Resort    Small Metro
Northwest               Northeast




              Central




  Southwest              Southeast
  Northwest Region
  Room Supply and Demand Percent Change
  Monthly 2000 – April 2005

20
                                      Demand % Chg
15                                    Supply % Chg

10                                    Poly. (Demand %
                                      Chg)
                                      Poly. (Supply %
 5                                    Chg)

 0

 -5

-10

-15

-20
   2000      2001       2002       2003          2004   2005
Northwest Region
Occupancy and ADR Percent Change
Monthly 2000 – April 2005

20
                                   ADR % Chg
15
                                   Occupancy % Chg

10                                 Poly. (Occupancy %
                                   Chg)
                                   Poly. (ADR % Chg)
 5

 0

 -5

-10

-15

-20
   2000     2001       2002        2003          2004   2005
     Northwest Region
     Day of Week Analysis – Occupancy/ADR
     Year To Date Ending April 2005


                      $73.69      $74.75     $74.45      $73.00
75        $67.74
                                                                     $70.12      $70.91


                                                                              64.5
                               60.4        60.3                   61.3
                                                      56.7
50                 54.1


       41.1


25



 0
        Sun         Mon         Tue        Wed         Thu          Fri         Sat
 Northeast Region
 Room Supply and Demand Percent Change
 Monthly 2000 – April 2005
20

15

10

 5

 0

 -5       Demand % Chg

-10       Supply % Chg

          Poly. (Demand %
-15       Chg)
          Poly. (Supply %
-20       Chg)
   2000          2001       2002   2003   2004   2005
Northeast Region
Occupancy and ADR Percent Change
Monthly 2000 – April 2005

15

10

 5

 0

 -5

-10       ADR % Chg

          Occupancy % Chg
-15
          Poly. (Occupancy
-20       % Chg)
          Poly. (ADR % Chg)

-25
   2000           2001        2002   2003   2004   2005
  Northeast Region
  Day of Week Analysis – Occupancy/ADR
  12-Month Ending April 2005

100

                     $79.97                 $81.52
                                 $80.92                 $79.38
         $75.18                                                     $76.10      $76.52
 75
                                                                             67.8
                                          63.9                   64.9
                              62.2
                                                     59.3
 50               55.0


      41.5


 25


  0
       Sun         Mon         Tue        Wed         Thu          Fri        Sat
 Central Region
 Room Supply and Demand Percent Change
 Monthly 2000 – April 2005

15


10


 5


 0


 -5

          Demand % Chg
-10
          Supply % Chg

          Poly. (Demand %
-15       Chg)
   2000   Poly. (Supply %
                  2001      2002   2003   2004   2005
          Chg)
Central Region
Occupancy and ADR Percent Change
Monthly 2000 – April 2005

10



 5



 0



 -5


          ADR % Chg
-10
          Occupancy % Chg

          Poly. (ADR % Chg)
-15
          Poly. (Occupancy %
   2000   Chg)     2001        2002   2003   2004   2005
     Central Region
     Day of Week Analysis – Occupancy/ADR
     12-Month Ending April 2005

80
                                                                      $67.43      $68.16
70                                                        $63.31
                                              $63.06
          $61.35      $61.08      $61.93
60
                                                                   59.5        59.1
                                           56.1
                               53.8                    54.0
50
                   46.8
40
       34.1
30

20
10
 0
        Sun         Mon         Tue         Wed         Thu          Fri         Sat
 Southwest Region
 Room Supply and Demand Percent Change
 Monthly 2000 – April 2005

15
                                  Demand % Chg

                                  Supply % Chg
10
                                  Poly. (Demand %
                                  Chg)
 5                                Poly. (Supply %
                                  Chg)

 0


 -5


-10


-15
   2000     2001       2002       2003              2004   2005
Southwest Region
Occupancy and ADR Percent Change
Monthly 2000 – April 2005

15
                               ADR % Chg

10                             Occupancy % Chg

                               Poly. (ADR % Chg)
 5                             Poly. (Occupancy %
                               Chg)

 0


 -5


-10


-15
   2000     2001       2002        2003             2004   2005
     Southwest Region
     Day of Week Analysis – Occupancy/ADR
     12-Month Ending April 2005

75
                                             $63.58      $63.25      $63.64      $64.38
          $62.06      $62.76     $63.56
                                                                  61.9        62.3


50
                                          48.2        49.0
                               46.6
                   40.7

       34.0

25




 0
        Sun         Mon         Tue        Wed         Thu          Fri         Sat
 Southeast Region
 Room Supply and Demand Percent Change
 Monthly 2000 – April 2005

15

          Demand % Chg

10        Supply % Chg

          Poly. (Demand %
          Chg)
          Poly. (Supply %
 5
          Chg)


 0



 -5



-10
   2000        2001         2002   2003   2004   2005
Southeast Region
Occupancy and ADR Percent Change
Monthly 2000 – April 2005

15
          ADR % Chg

10        Occupancy % Chg

          Poly. (Occupancy %
          Chg)
 5        Poly. (ADR % Chg)


 0


 -5


-10


-15
   2000        2001            2002   2003   2004   2005
     Southeast Region
     Day of Week Analysis – Occupancy/ADR
     12-Month Ending April 2005

70

60                        $54.74
                                   61.7 $55.35   62.7
                                                        $55.37          $55.15   62.2 $56.21   63.1 $56.81
          $54.01
                                                                 57.3
                   55.1
50

40     40.1

30

20

10

 0
        Sun         Mon             Tue           Wed             Thu              Fri           Sat
Total United States
Supply/Demand Percent Change
2000 – 2005P
 6
                                                             4.5
                                                                         3.8
            3.5
      2.8
 3
                  2.3                            1.5
                               1.6
                                           1.2
                                                       0.8         0.9
                                     0.3
 0



 -3                                    Supply % Chg
                        -3.4           Demand % Chg

 -6
        2000       2001         2002        2003        2004        2005P
Total United States
Occupancy Percent
2000 – 2005P


   70




   65
         63.3                                     63.1

                                           61.3
                      59.7          59.1
   60
                             58.9



   55
         2000         2001   2002   2003   2004   2005P
           Total United States
           Average Daily Rate
           1998 – 2005P
      95

                                                         90.11
      90
                                                 86.24
               85.37
      85                 84.2
                                 83.01   83.12


      80


      75
               2000      2001    2002    2003    2004    2005P

Source: STR
Total United States
RevPAR Percent Change
2000 – 2005P

 10
                                       7.8    7.5
        6.1
  5

                                0.4
  0

                        -2.7
  -5
                 -6.9
 -10
       2000     2001    2002   2003   2004   2005P
             Lodging Industry Issues
• Rising Costs – Energy (Gas), Insurance, Labor (visa caps)

• Amenity Creep – “Bed Wars”
• Rising Interest Rates
• Currency Exchange
• Airline Problems
• Demand Leakage – Condo Hotels, Cruise, Timeshare
• “Old Habits Hard to Break” ?
• Terrorists Threats
          U.S. Lodging Outlook

• Supply Growth Significantly Lower

• Demand Rebounds
• Occupancy Improvement
• Room Rate Should Follow
• Increased Profitability

				
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