MBA 2007 05 Stocks DDM 12-11 AM by shuifanglj

VIEWS: 8 PAGES: 25

									FINANCE
5. Stock valuation – DDM & FCFM

Professor André Farber

Solvay Business School
Université Libre de Bruxelles
Fall 2007
                    Stock Valuation

•     Objectives for this session :
1.   Introduce the dividend discount model (DDM)
2.   Understand the sources of dividend growth
3.   Analyse growth opportunities
4.   Examine why Price-Earnings ratios vary across firms
5.   Introduce free cash flow model (FCFM)




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                    DDM: one-year holding period

•   Review: valuing a 1-year 4% coupon bond
        • Face value: € 50            Bond price P0 = (50+2)/1.05 = 49.52
        • Coupon:         €2
        • Interest rate 5%

•   How much would you be ready to pay for a stock with the following
    characteristics:
         • Expected dividend next year: € 2
         • Expected price next year: €50
•   Looks like the previous problem. But one crucial difference:
     – Next year dividend and next year price are expectations, the realized
        price might be very different. Buying the stock involves some risk.
        The discount rate should be higher.

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                  Dividend Discount Model (DDM): 1-year
                  horizon
• 1-year valuation formula
                                             Expected price


                                    r = expected return on shareholders'equity
                                      = Risk-free interest rate + risk premium


• Back to example. Assume r = 10%
                                      Dividend yield = 2/47.27 = 4.23%

                                     Rate of capital gain = (50 – 47.27)/47.27 = 5.77%




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                   DDM: where does the expected stock price
                   come from?
• Expected price at forecasting horizon depends on expected dividends and
  expected prices beyond forecasting horizon

• To find P2, use 1-year valuation formula again:




• Current price can be expressed as:

• General formula:




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                    DDM - general formula

• With infinite forecasting horizon:




• Forecasting dividends up to infinity is not an easy task. So, in practice,
  simplified versions of this general formula are used. One widely used
  formula is the Gordon Growth Model base on the assumption that
  dividends grow at a constant rate.

         • DDM with constant growth g

         • Note: g < r



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                  DDM with constant growth : example

Data
                        Year   Dividend   DiscFac         Price
Next dividend: 6.00                                                   P0= 6/(.10-.04)
Div.growth rate: 4%      0                              100.00
Discount rate:    10%    1       6.00     0.9091        104.00
                         2       6.24     0.8264        108.16
                         3       6.49     0.7513        112.49
                         4       6.75     0.6830        116.99
                         5       7.02     0.6209        121.67
                         6       7.30     0.5645        126.53
                         7       7.59     0.5132        131.59
                         8       7.90     0.4665        136.86
                         9       8.21     0.4241        142.33
                        10       8.54     0.3855        148.02




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                   A formula for g

• Dividend are paid out of earnings:
       • Dividend = Earnings × Payout ratio
• Payout ratios of dividend paying companies tend to be stable.
       • Growth rate of dividend g = Growth rate of earnings
• Earnings increase because companies invest.
       • Net investment = Retained earnings
• Growth rate of earnings is a function of:
       • Retention ratio = 1 – Payout ratio
       • Return on Retained Earnings

          g = (Return on Retained Earnings) × (Retention Ratio)



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                  Example

• Data:
       • Expected earnings per share year 1: EPS1 = €10
       • Payout ratio : 60%
       • Required rate of return r : 10%
       • Return on Retained Earnings RORE: 15%
• Valuation:
       • Expected dividend per share next year: div1 = 10 × 60% = €6
       • Retention Ratio = 1 – 60% = 40%
       • Growth rate of dividend g = (40%) × (15%) = 6%
• Current stock price:
       • P0 = €6 / (0.10 – 0.06) = €150



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                  Return on Retained Earnings and Debt

• Net investment = Total Asset
• For a levered firm:
        • Total Asset = Stockholders’ equity + Debt
• RORE is a function of:
        • Return on net investment (RONI)
        • Leverage (L = D/ SE)

                  RORE = RONI + [RONI – i (1-TC)]×L




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Growth model: example




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                   Valuing the company

• Assume discount rate r = 15%
• Step 1: calculate terminal value
        • As Earnings = Dividend from year 4 on
        • V3 = 503.71/15% = 3,358

• Step 2: discount expected dividends and terminal value




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                    Valuing Growth Opportunities

• Consider the data:
      • Expected earnings per share next year EPS1 = €10
      • Required rate of return r = 10%

                                         Cy A             Cy B             Cy C
         Payout ratio                    60%               60%             100%
         Return on Retained Earnings     15%               10%              -

         Next year’s dividend             €6                €6             €10

         g                                6%                4%             0%
         Price per share P0              €150             €100             €100
• Why is A more valuable than B or C?
• Why do B and C have same value in spite of different investment policies


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                  NPVGO

• Cy C is a “cash cow” company
       • Earnings = Dividend (Payout = 1)
       • No net investment
• Cy B does not create value
       • Dividend < Earnings, Payout <1, Net investment >0
       • But: Return on Retained Earnings = Cost of capital
       • NPV of net investment = 0
• Cy A is a growth stock
       • Return on Retained Earnings > Cost of capital
       • Net investment creates value (NPV>0)
       • Net Present Value of Growth Opportunities (NPVGO)
       • NPVGO = P0 – EPS1/r = 150 – 100 = 50


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                    Source of NPVG0 ?

• Additional value if the firm retains earnings in order to fund new projects



• where PV(NPVt) represent the present value at time 0 of the net present
  value (calculated at time t) of a future investment at time t

• In previous example:
        Year 1: EPS1 = 10 div1 = 6  Net investment = 4
                EPS = 4 * 15% = 0.60 (a permanent increase)
                NPV1 = -4 + 0.60/0.10 = +2 (in year 1)
                PV(NPV1) = 2/1.10 = 1.82




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NPVGO: details




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                   What Do Price-Earnings Ratios mean?

• Definition: P/E = Stock price / Earnings per share
• Why do P/E vary across firms?
• As: P0 = EPS/r + NPVGO          

• Three factors explain P/E ratios:
       • Accounting methods:
            – Accounting conventions vary across countries
       • The expected return on shareholders’equity
            – Risky companies should have low P/E
       • Growth opportunities




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                   Beyond DDM: The Free Cash Flow Model

• Consider an all equity firm.
• If the company:
   – Does not use external financing (not stock issue, # shares constant)
   – Does not accumulate cash (no change in cash)
         • Then, from the cash flow statement:
                  » Free cash flow = Dividend
                  » CF from operation – Investment = Dividend
   – Company financially constrained by CF from operation
• If external financing is a possibility:
                  » Free cash flow = Dividend – Stock Issue

        • Market value of company = PV(Free Cash Flows)


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               FCFM: example

                                       Euro m
Current
situation
# shares: 100m

          Market value of company (r = 10%) V0 = 100/0.10 = €1,000m
          Price per share P0 = €1,000m / 100m = €10

Project




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Free Cash Flow Calculation




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      Self financing – DIV = FCF, no stock issue




Market value of equity with project:
(As the number of shares is constant, discounting free cash
flows or total dividends leads to the same result)




NPV = increase in the value of equity due to project
NPV = 1,694 – 1,000 = 694



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     Outside financing : Dividend = Net Income, SI =
     Div. – FCF




Market value of equity with project:
(Discount free cash flow, not total dividends)




     Same value as before!




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         Why not discount total dividends?


Because part of future total dividends will be paid to new
shareholders. They should not be taken into account to value
the shares of current shareholders.

To see this, let us decompose each year the value of all shares
between old shares (those outstanding one year before) and
new shares (those just issued)




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The price per share is obtained by dividing the market value of old share by the number of
old shares:
Year 1:
             Number of old shares = 100
             P1 = 1,764 / 100 = 17.64
The number of shares to issue is obtained by dividing the total stock issue by the number of
shares:
Year 1:
             Number of new shares issued = 100 / 17.74 = 5.67
Similar calculations for year 2 lead to:
             Number of old shares = 105.67
             Price per share P2 = 1,900 / 105.67 = 17.98
             Number of new share issued = 100 / 17.98 = 5.56


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                  From DDM to FCFM: formulas

• Consider an all equity firm
• Value of one share: P0 = (div1 + P1)/(1+r)
• Market value of company = value of all shares
        • V0 = n0P0 = (n0div1 + n0P1)/(1+r)
• n0 div1 = total dividend DIV1 paid by the company in year 1
• n0 P1 = Value of “old shares”
        • New shares might be issued (or bought back) in year 1
        • V1 = n1P1 = n0P1         +         (n1-n0)P1
• Statement of cash flow (no debt, cash constant):
        • FCF1 = DIV1 – (n1-n0)P1 → DIV1 + n0P1 = FCF1 + V1
• Conclusion:
        • V0 = (FCF1 + V1) /(1+r)


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