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Nils-Axel Morner - Heartland Institute

VIEWS: 189 PAGES: 36

									        No Alarming Sea Level Rise
                  Nature against IPCC
                 Observations vs Models

                          Nils-Axel Mörner

    Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden

                           morner@pog.nu


President INQUA Com. on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003)
            Leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project (2000-2009+)
    Co-ordinator INTAS project on Geomagnetism and Climate (1997-2003)
most Changes have Pros and Cons
     Global Warming in particular

but there is nothing good to come from
        A Rapid Sea Level Rise

           Therefore this is
       the Only Real Threat
           though, in fact,
          Utterly Wrong !

       quod erat demonstrandum
   This is what it is all about
Observational facts or Model output




                                  ?
the motivation behind sea level claims differs significantly
      We have done very detailed sea level studis in


                 The Maldives
   (doomed to be flooded in 50-100 years)

– sea has been higher before
– sea fell ~20 cm in the 1970s
– sea has remained stable for the last 30 years
Sea level changes in the Maldives from 1500 to 2009 and 2100




               No reasons for any alarm.
     Sea level has been stable for the last 30 years.
Maximum future change may be a return to a pre-1970 level
President     Cabinet under water
in water




            Past-Present-Future sea level changes
                      no threat at all !
   I recently investigated the situation in Bangladesh
       (Energy & Environment, 21:3, 49-63, 2010)

                  Bangladesh
 (doomed to experience terrible disasters)
– sea is not rising, but stable
– it even fell a little some 40-50 years ago
– similar trends are recorded in India
– and the Maldives
Coastal Erosion !
  Sea is Rising !
  The IPCCers say
         Coastal Erosion – yes
     But – No Rise in Sea Level


   As clearly indicated by the root system
            spreading horizontally
at just the same level as in the forest behind
Sea Level Changes in Bangladesh




There is no global sea level rise in Bangladesh
A presently ongoing rapid sea level rise has been claimed for

             Tuvalu and Vanuatu
          the truth is quite different:
– sea has remained stable in Tuvalu
– sea has also remained stable in Vanuatu
           Tuvalu – tide gauge record




8 years of slow rise (instalaton subsidence?) is followed by
    22 years of stability – i.e. no sea level rise
         the 3 low levels represent ENSO-events
           North-west Europe
        is another excellent ”test area”
– there is a eustatic curve for 1690-1970
– sea has not risen in the last 40-50 years

        No Rapid Sea Level Rise
                 can be traced
Eustatic curve 1680-1970 (for NW Europe)




                                 (from Mörner, 1973)
From 1840 t0 1940 sea level rose by 11 cm – blue line
the Earth’s rate of rotation (LOD) ≈ 10 cm – green line
COXAHVEN 160 YEARS TIDE-GAUGE RECORD




      A mean-sinosidal relative sea level rise is composed of
       a long-term subsidence (red) of ~1.4 mm/year and
a sinosoidal eustatic rise up to 1960 followed by a slight lowering
           Satellite Altimetry
A wonderful new tool to measure           the
 ocean level                             but
      from where does the tilt come?



– in 2000: variability around a stable zero
– in 2003: a tilt of 2.3 mm/yrs
    Satelite Altimetry
by 2000 – a stable trend
by 2003 – a rising trend
due to ”personal calibration”
50 years sea level record from French Guiana-Surinam




It exhibits a clear dominance of the 18.6 years tidal cycle
              around a stable zero-level

 Satellite altimitry gives a rise of ~3 mm/yr in this area
           there is a message in the difference
The rate of glacial eustatic rise
after LGM was ~10 mm/yr
and sets the ultimate limit of
possible sea level changes in
the present century (yellow).
Thermal Expansion
          CONCLUSIONS
No sea level rise recorded:
– in the Maldives
– in Tuvalu
– in Vanuatu
– in Bangladesh
– in Qatar
– in Venice
– in NW Europe
Thermal expansion
– is small <10 cm – zero at shore
Satellite Altimetry
– records no or just a small rise
A: sea level changes based on observational facts
B: selected tide-gauge records (IPCC)
C: Topex/Poseidon record after personal calibration
D: Topex/Poseidon without personal calibration
If sea level would be rapidly rising – following the law of angular
     momentum – the Earth should experience a deceleration.
                This is NOT the case – Why is this?
        because Sea is Not Rising – of course
              CONCLUSIONS
the observational records (curve A) is correct
    the IPCC models (curves B-C) are wrong
     without a flooding concept
there is not much of a threat left in IPCC

        the tiger has lost its teeth
       maybe it was not even a real tiger
       just a blown-up balloon-dummy
Don’t worry, my son, the present is a reflection of the past
  nothing more, nothing less – just the same old story
190 peer-reviewed papers on Sea Level & Climate – out of 534 papers totally




                     Mörner, N.-A., 2007

        The Greatest Lie Ever Told.
          1st ed. 2007, 2nd ed. 2009, 3rd ed. 2010, 20 pp.

                           for sale
                      during the meeting
                 References (just a few selected)
Mörner, N.-A., 2004. Changing sea levels. In: Encyclopedia of Coastal Sciences
(M. Schwartz, Ed.), p. 229-232.

Mörner, N.-A., 2004. Estimating future sea level changes. Global Planetary
Change, 40, 49-54.

Mörner, N.-A., 2007. Sea level changes and tsunamis, environmental stress and
migration overseas. The case of the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Internationales
Asienforum, 38, 353-374.

Mörner, N.-A. 2010. Some problems in the reconstruction of mean sea level and
its changes with time. Quaternary International, on line January 25, 2010.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2009.10.044

Mörner, N.-A., 2010. Sea level changes in Bangladesh. New observational facts.
Energy & Environment, 21:3, 49-63.

Mörner, N.-A., 2010. Solar Minima, Earth’s Rotation and Little Ice Ages in the
Past and in the Future. The North Atlantic – European case. Global Planetary
Change, in press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.004

								
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