Market outlook by angelbrokingacme


									                                                                                                                            Market Outlook
                                                                                                                                            India Research
                                                                                                                                                 June 24, 2011

Dealer’s Diary                                                                                                   Domestic Indices      Chg (%)       (Pts)   (Close)

The key benchmark indices opened lower in early trade following weak global                                      BSE Sensex              1.0%      176.9 17,727
market cues. However, the market soon turned positive and traded in green as                                     Nifty                   0.8%       41.7      5,320
value buying was witnessed in frontline stocks. The indices continued to trade                                   MID CAP                -0.1%       (4.2)     6,524
strong despite higher weekly inflation numbers. According to data released by                                    SMALL CAP              -0.3%      (25.8)     7,782
the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India’s food price index rose to                                          BSE HC                 -0.5%      (32.8)     6,165
two-month high of 9.13% for the week ended June 11, 2011. Further, the                                           BSE PSU                 0.1%        4.6      8,168
market extended gains to hit fresh intraday high in afternoon trade. However,                                    BANKEX                  0.4%       49.7 12,003
the indices pared some of their gains in mid-afternoon trade as European                                         AUTO                    0.3%       26.2      8,311
stocks fell in early trade. Finally, the market rallied to regain the psychological                              METAL                  -0.1%      (19.9) 14,094
levels of 5,300 and 17,700 at the close for the Nifty and Sensex, respectively.
                                                                                                                 OIL & GAS               2.0%      171.3      8,942
The Sensex closed in green, up 1.0%, while Nifty gained 0.8%. The mid-cap
                                                                                                                 BSE IT                  1.0%       56.1      5,796
and small-cap indices underperformed and closed with losses of 0.1% and
                                                                                                                 Global Indices        Chg (%)       (Pts)   (Close)
0.3%, respectively. Among the front runners, ITC, RCOM, RIL, Hindustan
Unilever and ONGC gained 1–4%, while Cipla, Maruti Suzuki, BHEL,                                                 Dow Jones               -0.5%    (59.7)     12,050
HDFC and Hindalco lost 0–2%. Among mid caps, Jain Irrigation, Kirloskar                                          NASDAQ                   0.7%      17.6      2,687
Oil Engines, Usha Martin, Videocon Ind. and Shree Global gained 4–8%,                                            FTSE                    -1.7%    (98.6)      5,674
while GTL, Peninsula Land, Havells India, SKS Microfinance and                                                   Nikkei                  -0.3%    (32.7)      9,597
India Cements lost 4–7%.
                                                                                                                 Hang Seng               -0.5% (100.8)       21,759
                                                                                                                 Straits Times            0.1%       1.9      3,045
Markets Today
                                                                                                                 Shanghai Com             1.5%      38.9      2,688
The trend deciding level for the day is 17,655/5,301 levels. If NIFTY trades
above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a                                    Indian ADRs           Chg (%)      (Pts)    (Close)
further rally up to 17,827 – 17,927/5,350 – 5,379 levels. However, if NIFTY
                                                                                                                 Infosys                  1.1%       0.7      $62.2
trades below 17,655/5,301 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may
                                                                                                                 Wipro                    0.0%       0.0      $13.0
correct up to 17,555 – 17,382/5,271 – 5,223 levels.
                                                                                                                 ICICI Bank               0.5%       0.2      $45.6

  Indices                         S2                      S1                   R1                   R2           HDFC Bank                0.2%       0.4     $159.0

  SENSEX                       17,382                 17,555                 17,827             17,927
  NIFTY                         5,223                   5,271                5,350              5,379            Advances / Declines               BSE          NSE
                                                                                                                 Advances                        1,159          572
News Analysis                                                                                                    Declines                        1,612          863
        India's air traffic jumps 17.6% to 24.5mn in January–May 2011                                            Unchanged                        138               65
        BHEL - BEL consortium tie up to invest `2,000cr in AP
        Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
                                                                                                                 Volumes (` cr)
  Net Inflows (June 22, 2011)
                                                                                                                 BSE                                          2,526
  ` cr               Purch                      Sales                 Net             MTD                YTD
                                                                                                                 NSE                                          8,998
  FII                      1,846               2,114                 (268)            (513)         (2,414)
  MFs                         371                366                     5             748           2,773

  FII Derivatives (June 23, 2011)
  ` cr                                         Purch                 Sales             Net
  Index Futures                               1,619               1,457               162           17,012
  Stock Futures                               2,235               2,314               (79)          30,083

  Gainers / Losers
                                        Gainers                                                Losers
  Company                        Price (`)     chg (%)         Company                  Price (`)    chg (%)
  Jain Irrigation                      158          7.5        GTL                            108        (6.7)
  Titan Ind.                           229          6.8        Havells India                  381        (5.5)
  Videocon Ind.                        186          4.9        India Cements                   70        (4.3)
  Century Textiles                     345          4.8        GVK Power                       18        (3.5)                                                  1

  Pipavav Shipyard                      77          4.0        Pantaloon Retail               264        (3.5)
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                                     Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
                                                                                      Market Outlook | India Research

                India's air traffic jumps 17.6% to 24.5mn in January–May 2011

                The number of passengers carried by domestic carriers in India jumped by 17.6% to
                24.5mn in January–May 2011. Jet Airways, Kingfisher Airlines and IndiGo carried more
                than 1mn passengers each in May. Jet Airways continued to maintain its leadership
                position in the industry with a market share of 26.1% for May, while Kingfisher’s share was
                20%. Budget-carriers IndiGo and SpiceJet recorded market shares of 19.9% and 14.2%,
                respectively. SpiceJet crossed Air India in terms of market share during the month of May
                as Air India slipped one rank to fifth place with a share of 13.2% as its operations were hit
                by a pilots strike in early May. Budget-carrier GoAir finished sixth with a 6.6% share. Load
                factors of all six firms rose as demand increased during the peak vacation season.

                We expect the air traffic in India to rise at a CAGR of 16%-18% for FY2011-13E, on the
                back of strong economic growth in the country. Currently we have a Neutral
                rating on SpiceJet.

                BHEL – BEL consortium tie up to invest `2,000cr in AP

                BHEL and Bharat Electronics Ltd. (BEL) firmed up to invest `2,000cr for setting up a solar
                photovoltaic (PV) modules production unit near Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh. Both the
                companies had signed an MoU two years back to have a JV for solar PV business, setting
                up a manufacturing facility for silicon wafer, solar cells and modules. The project entails a
                250MW solar PV production facility for processing silicon wafers, solar cells and PV
                modules in the new plant. The proposed JVC, besides export, will cater to Indian solar
                products requirements. We remain Neutral on the stock.

                Economic and Political News

                     Food inflation rises to 9.13% as on June 11, 2011
                     Monsoon shortfall does not pose threat to inflation: RBI
                     India Inc. raises US$2bn in April 2011 through ECBs/FCCBs
                     Government allows additional export of 5lakh tonnes of sugar
                     EGoM on fuel price hike may happen next month

                Corporate News

                     Lupin, Natco tie-up to market breast cancer tablets
                     Suzlons Italian arm REpower ties-up with Italian company for wind project in Italy
                     SpiceJet seeks RBI approval to raise US$270mn

                Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

June 24, 2011                                                                                                     2
                                                                                                                                 Market Outlook | India Research

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