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					                        Well-to-Wheels analysis
              of future automotive fuels and powertrains
                        in the European context




                                              A joint study by
                                          EUCAR / JRC / CONCAWE
                                            Overview of Results
                                                                  Slide 1
JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium
                                               Outline

        WTW study objectives and scope
        Critical vehicle assumptions
        Hydrogen Pathways
                Hydrogen vehicles (ICE and FC)
                Hydrogen from natural gas
                Liquid v. Compressed
                Hydrogen from biomass
                Hydrogen via electrolysis
                Costs
                Potential hydrogen production from biomass
        Hydrogen v. other alternative fuels
                CNG
                Biomass-derived fuels
                Cost comparison
                Alternative uses of biomass



JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                       Slide 2
                                          Study Objectives


        Establish, in a transparent and objective manner, a consensual well-
         to-wheels energy use and GHG emissions assessment of a wide
         range of automotive fuels and powertrains relevant to Europe in 2010
         and beyond.
        Consider the viability of each fuel pathway and estimate the
         associated macro-economic costs.
        Have the outcome accepted as a reference by all relevant
         stakeholders.


                Focus on 2010+
                Marginal approach for energy supplies




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                     Slide 3
                                                  Tank-to-Wheels Matrix
                   Powertrains                    PISI    DISI    DICI    Hybrid   Hybrid   Hybrid    FC     Hybrid Ref. +
                                                                           PISI     DISI     DICI             FC    hyb. FC
                   Fuels
                   Gasoline                        2002    2002           2010+    2010+                             2010+
                                                  2010+   2010+
                   Diesel fuel                                     2002                     2010+                    2010+
                                                                  2010+
                   LPG                             2002
                                                  2010+
                   CNG Bi-Fuel                     2002
                                                  2010+
                   CNG (dedicated)                 2002                   2010+
                                                  2010+
                   Diesel/Bio-diesel      blend                    2002                     2010+
                   95/5                                           2010+
                   Gasoline/Ethanol       blend    2002    2002                    2010+
                   95/5                           2010+   2010+
                   Bio-diesel                                      2002                      2002
                                                                  2010+                     2010+
                   MTBE/ETBE                       2002    2002            2002     2002
                                                  2010+   2010+           2010+    2010+
                   DME                                             2002                     2010+
                                                                  2010+
                   Synthetic diesel fuel                           2002                     2010+
                                                                  2010+
                   Methanol                                                                                          2010+
                   Naphtha                                                                                           2010+
                   Compressed hydrogen            2010+                   2010+                      2010+   2010+
                   Liquid hydrogen                2010+                   2010+                      2010+   2010+




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                       Slide 4
                                                             Well-to-Tank Matrix
                          Fuel




                                                 Gasoline, Diesel,




                                                                                                    Synthetic diesel
                                                                                  (comp., liquid)
                                                 (2010 quality)




                                                                                                                                                  FAME/FAEE
                                                                                  Hydrogen




                                                                                                                                        MT/ETBE




                                                                                                                                                                         Electricity
                                                                                                                                                              Methanol
                                                                                                    Tropsch)
                                                                                                    (Fischer-
                                                 Naphtha




                                                                                                                              Ethanol
                                                                     CNG




                                                                                                                       DME
                                                                            LPG
              Resource

              Crude oil                                X
              Coal                                                                  X(1)                X(1)            X                                     X           X
              Natural gas Piped                                       X             X(1)                 X              X                                     X           X
                          Remote                                     X(1)            X                  X(1)           X(1)             X                     X           X
              LPG         Remote                                            X                                                           X
              Biomass     Sugar beet                                                                                          X
                          Wheat                                                                                               X         X
                          Wheat straw                                                                                         X
                          Sugar cane                                                                                          X
                          Rapeseed                                                                                                                 X
                          Sunflower                                                                                                                X
                          Woody waste                                                  X                  X             X     X                               X
                          Farmed wood                                                  X                  X             X     X                               X           X
                                                                      (2)
                          Organic waste                              X                                                                                                    X
                          Black liquor                                                 X                  X             X                                     X           X
              Wind                                                                                                                                                        X
              Nuclear                                                                                                                                                     X
              Electricity                                                              X
              (1) with/without CO2 capture and sequestration
              (2) Biogas




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                                                                Slide 5
                                          Vehicle Assumptions
       Simulation of GHG emissions and energy use calculated for a model
        vehicle
               Representing the European C-segment (4-seater Sedan)
               Not fully representative of EU average fleet
               New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)
       For each fuel, the vehicle platform was adapted to meet minimum
        performance criteria
               Speed, acceleration, gradeability etc
               Criteria reflect European customer expectations

       Compliance with Euro 3/4 was ensured for the 2002 / 2010 case

       No assumptions were made with respect to availability and market
        share of the vehicle technology options proposed for 2010+

       Heavy duty vehicles (truck and buses) not considered in this study



JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                      Slide 6
                  Common vehicle minimum performance criteria

        All technologies fulfil at least minimal customer performance criteria


                                              Time lag
                                                                                         Acceleration
                                             0-50 km/h < 4 s
                                                                               > 4.0 m/s2


                                   Time lag
                                  0-100 km/h < 13 s                              > 180 km/h Top speed



                                            Time lag < 13 s                   > 600 km
                                          80-120 km/h           > 30 %              Range
                                           in 4th gear
                                                               Gradeability
                                                                at 1 km/h


        “Vehicle / Fuel” combinations comply with emissions regulations
                The 2002 vehicles comply with Euro III
                The 2010+ vehicles comply with Euro IV


JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                 Slide 8
                                          HYDROGEN PATHWAYS




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                       Slide 9
                           Characteristics of hydrogen ICE vehicles

        1.3 l downsized turbocharged engine
                Engine map derived from test bench data
                Same energy efficiency map for both compressed and liquid hydrogen
                Lean-burn mode and high rate of turbo charging gives same torque curve
                 as gasoline
                                                                      PISI              PISI
                                                                     Gasoline   C-H2           L-H2
                                          Powertrain
                                          Displacement          l      1.6      1.3            1.3
                                          Powertrain           kW       77       77             77
                                          Engine mass          kg      120      120            120
                                          Gearbox mass         kg       50       50             50
                                          Storage System
                                          Tank pressure        MPa      0.1     35/70          Atmo.
                                          Tank net capacity     kg     31.5        9              9
                                          Tank mass empty       kg      15       120            109
                                          Tank mass increase    kg       0        85             74
                                          including 90% fuel
                                          Vehicle
                                          Reference mass       kg     1181      1181           1181
                                          Vehicle mass         kg     1181      1266           1255
                                          Cycle test mass      kg     1250      1360           1360
                                          Performance mass     kg     1321      1406           1395




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                Slide 10
                             Characteristics of hydrogen FC vehicles


                      Liquid fuel                                      Hydrogen tank
                       Gasoline           Reformer                  (compressed or liquid)
                       Methanol
                       Naphtha
                                                          Or
                        Diesel


                                                          Fuel
                                                          cell


                                                                                                    Fuel cell powertrain efficiency
                                                                            60%
                     Drive          Electric            Power
                     train           motor             controller
                                                                            50%


                                                                            40%
                                                     Optional battery
                                                         (hybrid)
                                                                            30%


                                                                            20%
                                                                                                                              H2 FC
                                                                                                                              Gasoline FC
                                                                            10%                                               Methanol FC


                                                                             0%
                                                                                  0%         10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%   100%
                                                                                                                % Net power




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                            Slide 11
                            Characteristics of hydrogen FC vehicles
                                                            Non Hybrid            Hybrid            Hybrid+reformer
                                                          C-H2      L-H2   C-H2            L-H2   Gasoline(1) Methanol
           Powertrain mass substitution
           Engine mass                               kg   -120      -120   -120            -120     -120       -120
           Gearbox mass                              kg    -50       -50    -50             -50      -50        -50
           Fuel Cell
           Fuel cell stack mass                      kg   150       150    150             150       150        150
           Reformer mass                             kg     0         0      0               0        90         90
           Cooling system additional mass            kg    50        50     50              50        50         50
           Electric parts
           Battery mass                              kg     0        0     20              20        40         40
           Electric motor+electronics mass           kg    73       73     73              73        73         73
           Storage System
           Tank netto capacity                       kg   4.7       4.7    4.2             4.2       23         45
           Tank mass empty                           kg   69        57     56              51        15         15
           Tank mass increase including 90%          kg   30        18     16              11        -8         12
           fuel
           Vehicle
           Enlarged vehicle additional mass          kg    50       50      50          50           50         50
           Reference mass                            kg   1181     1181    1181        1181         1181       1181
           Vehicle mass                              kg   1364     1352    1370        1365         1456       1476
           Cycle test mass                           kg   1470     1470    1470        1470         1590       1590
           (1)
                 also valid for naphtha and diesel




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                  Slide 12
                                                   Overall picture: GHG versus total energy
                                                                                Hydrogen
                                        900
                                                                                                                  2010+ vehicles
                                                                                                                                   Gasoline
                                                                                                                                   Diesel fuel
                                        800                                                                                        C-H2 ex NG, ICE
                                                                                                                                   C-H2 ex NG, FC
                                                                                                                                   C-H2 ex coal, ICE
                                                  Most hydrogen pathways                                                           C-H2 ex coal, FC
                                        700
                                                                                                                                   C-H2 ex wood, ICE
                                                    are energy-intensive                                                           C-H2 ex wood, FC
      WTW GHG emissions (g CO2eq / km




                                                                                                                                   C-H2 ex NG+ely, ICE
                                        600                                                                                        C-H2 ex NG+ely, FC
                                                                                                                                   C-H2 ex coal+ely, ICE
                                                                                                                                   C-H2 ex coal+ely, FC
                                                                                                                                   C-H2 ex wood+ely, ICE
                                        500
                                                                                                                                   C-H2ex wood+ely, FC
                                                                                                                                   C-H2 ex nuclear elec, ICE
                                                                                                                                   C-H2 ex nuclear elec, FC
                                        400                                                                                        C-H2 ex wind elec, ICE
                                                                                                                                   C-H2 ex wind elec, FC
                                                                                                                                   C-H2 ex EU-mix elec, ICE
                                                                                                                                   C-H2 ex EU-mix elec, FC
                                        300
                                                                                                                                   L-H2 ex NG, ICE
                                                                                                                                   L-H2 ex NG, FC
                                                                                                                                   L-H2 ex wood, ICE
                                        200                                                                                        L-H2 ex wood, FC
                                                                                                                                   L-H2 ex EU-mix elec, ICE
                                                                                                                                   L-H2 ex EU-mix elec, FC
                                        100                                                                                        L-H2 ex NG+ely, ICE
                                                                                                                                   L-H2 ex NG+ely, FC
                                                                                                                                   L-H2 ex coal+ely, ICE
                                                                                                                                   L-H2 ex coal+ely, FC
                                          0
                                              0        200          400                 600                 800           1000               1200
                                                                           Total WTW energy (MJ / 100 km)




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                                        Slide 13
                                   ICE v. Fuel Cell, Liquid v. Compressed
                                                     Hydrogen from natural gas
                                      WTW energy                     2010+ vehicles                    WTW GHG


               C-H2 FC hyb.                                                   C-H2 FC hyb.



                   C-H2 FC                                                        C-H2 FC
                                                                      TTW
                                                                      WTT




              C-H2 PISI hyb.                                                 C-H2 PISI hyb.



                   L-H2 PISI                                                      L-H2 PISI



                  C-H2 PISI                                                      C-H2 PISI



                               0     100       200       300   400                            0   50    100     150    200   250

                                           MJ / 100 km                                                  g CO2eq / km



       Fuel cells have the potential to deliver a large efficiency gain
       Liquid hydrogen is less energy-efficient than compressed hydrogen


JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                            Slide 14
                                      Impact of hydrogen production route
                                       Direct hydrogen production via reforming
                                           WTW energy                       Figures for 2010+                   WTW GHG
                                                                          non-hybrid FC vehicles

                Wood , black
                  liquor                                                              Wood , black
                                                                                        liquor

               Wood , central
               gasifier, pipe                                                       Wood , central
                                                                                    gasifier, pipe

               Wood, on-site
                                                                                     Wood, on-site
                 gasifier
                                                                                       gasifier
                                                                          TTW
               Coal EU-mix,
              central ref, pipe
                                                                          WTT       Coal EU-mix,
                                                                                   central ref, pipe

             LNG, central ref,
                                                                                   LNG, central ref,
                  pipe
                                                                                        pipe

               NG 4000 km,                                                          NG 4000 km,
              central ref, pipe                                                    central ref, pipe


             NG 4000 km, on-                                                          NG 4000 km,
                 site ref                                                              on-site ref

                                  0   50    100   150   200   250   300                                0   50     100   150   200   250   300
                                              MJ / 100 km                                                           g CO2eq / km


                                             Hydrogen from renewables gives low GHG
                                             But comparison with other uses is required


JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                         Source: WTW Report, Figures 8.4.2-1a/b   Slide 15
                                  Impact of hydrogen production route
                                            Hydrogen production via electrolysis
                                             WTW energy                        Figures for 2010+                        WTW GHG
                                                                             non-hybrid FC vehicles

                             Wind, central ely, pipe                                                   Wind, central ely, pipe


                           Elec nuclear, on-site ely                                               Elec nuclear, on-site ely


                       Elec coal EU-mix, on-site ely                                           Elec coal EU-mix, on-site ely


                           Elec EU-mix, on-site ely                                                   Elec EU-mix, on-site ely
                                                                                 TTW
                                                                                 WTT
                         Wood, on-site gasifier+ely                                              Wood, on-site gasifier+ely


                   NG 4000 km, CCGT, central ely,                                           NG 4000 km, CCGT, central ely,
                               pipe                                                                     pipe


                    NG 4000 km, CCGT, on-site ely                                           NG 4000 km, CCGT, on-site ely



                           NG 4000 km, on-site ref                                                    NG 4000 km, on-site ref


                                                       0   200   400   600     800                                               0   200     400    600
                                                             MJ / 100 km                                                             g CO2eq / km
               Ely=electrolysis


              Electrolysis is less energy efficient than direct hydrogen production


JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                                   Slide 16
     Impact of hydrogen production route: on-board reformers
                                          WTW energy                            2010+ vehicles            WTW GHG                             TTW
                                                                          TTW
                                                                                                                                              WTT
                                                                          WTT
                                                                                                          Total GHG
                MeOH ex Wood                                                         MeOH ex Wood


                 MeOH ex Coal                                                         MeOH ex Coal
                   (EU-mix)                                                             (EU-mix)
                                                                 Reformer +
                  MeOH ex NG                                         FC                MeOH ex NG
                   (4000 km)                                                            (4000 km)                                    Reformer
                                                                                                                                       + FC
                      Naphtha                                                              Naphtha


                      Gasoline                                                             Gasoline




                 C-H2 ex wood,                                                        C-H2 ex wood,
                      FC                                                                   FC
                                                                                                                                       Direct
              C-H2 ex NG (4000                                     Direct          C-H2 ex NG (4000                                  hydrogen
                  km), FC                                        hydrogen              km), FC

              C-H2 ex NG (4000                                                     C-H2 ex NG (4000
                  km), PISI                                                           km), PISI

                                 0    100        200       300      400                               0   100         200      300      400
                                             MJ / 100 km                                                        g CO2eq / km



           On-board reforming of gasoline/naphtha is better than direct use in an ICE
            but not as good as direct fuel cell
           Could provide supply flexibility during fuel cell introduction



JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                             Slide 17
                                      CO2 capture and storage (CC&S)

        The concept of isolating CO2 produced in combustion or conversion
         processes and injecting it into suitable geological formations has been
         gaining credibility in the last few years
        There is considerable scope for storage in various types of geological
         formations
        CO2 capture and transport technologies are available
                Easier when CO2 is produced in nearly pure form
                Transport in supercritical state (compressed) by pipeline or ship
        The main issues are
                Long-term integrity and safety of storage
                Legal aspects
                Cost
        The complete technological packages are under development
                CO2 removal potential given here is only indicative
        Preliminary assessment based on data from the IEA greenhouse gas group
         and other literature sources
        Cost data not included as available info not considered sufficiently reliable
         and consistent


JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                  Slide 18
                                            CO2 capture and storage (CC&S)
                                                WTW energy                                                  WTW GHG

                                                                 With CCS                                                      With CCS
                                                                                      C-H2, NG 4000
                         C-H2, NG 4000                           Standard processes    km, Cen Ref,                            Standard processes
                        km, Cen Ref, FC                                                     FC


                                                                                      C-H2, NG 4000
                         C-H2, NG 4000                                                 km, Cen Ref,
                        km, Cen Ref, ICE                                                   ICE



                              DME: Rem                                                   DME: Rem




                         Syn-diesel, Coal                                                Syn-diesel,
                              (CTL)                                                      Coal (CTL)



                         Syn-diesel, Rem                                                 Syn-diesel,
                              GTL                                                         Rem GTL



                              CNG: LNG,                                                  CNG: LNG,
                              Dedicated                                                  Dedicated


                                            0    100       200       300      400                      0   100       200         300      400
                                                       MJ / 100 km                                               g CO2eq/ km



        CC&S requires some additional energy (mainly for CO2 compression)
        It is most attractive for
                Processes that use large amounts of high-carbon energy (CTL)
                Processes that “decarbonise” the fuels (hydrogen)



JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                             Slide 19
                Cost of fossil fuels substitution and CO2 avoided

        Some cost elements are dependent on scale (e.g. distribution
         infrastructure, number of alternative vehicles etc)
        As a common calculation basis we assumed that 5% of the relevant
         vehicle fleet (SI, CI or both) converts to the alternative fuel
                This is not a forecast, simply a way of comparing each fuel option under
                 the same conditions
                If this portion of the EU transportation demand were to be replaced by
                 alternative fuels and powertrain technologies, the GHG savings vs.
                 incremental costs would be as indicated
        Costs of CO2 avoided are calculated from incremental capital and
         operating costs for fuel production and distribution, and for the vehicle

       The costs, as calculated, are valid for a steady-state situation where 5% of the
       relevant conventional fuels have been replaced by an alternative. Additional costs
       are likely to be incurred during the transition period, especially where a new
       distribution infrastructure is required.




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                     Slide 20
                                              Costing basis

        We considered the cost from a macro-economic point of view (cost to
         “EU inc.”)
                The cost of internationally traded commodities is the market price
                 whether imported or produced within Europe (unless the production cost
                 in Europe is higher)
                The 12% capital charge excludes the tax element (internal)
        Cost elements considered
                For fuels produced within Europe
                        Raw material cost
                        Production cost (capital charge + fixed operating costs + energy/chemicals
                         costs)
                For imported fuels: market price
                Distribution and retail costs
                Additional cost of alternative vehicles (compared to state-of-the-art
                 gasoline PISI)




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                               Slide 21
                                          Costing basis: oil price

        Oil price is important because
                It sets the cost of fossil fuels
                It influences the cost of virtually all other materials and services
        We have considered two oil price scenarios
                25 €/bbl (30 $/bbl)
                50 €/bbl (60 $/bbl)
        All other cost elements are adjusted according to an “Oil Cost Factor”
         (OCF) representing the fraction of the cost element that will follow the
         oil price




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                 Slide 22
                                                       DI
                                                          SI
                                                  PI
                                                    SI Ga




                                                                                   0%
                                                                                        50%
                                                                                              100%
                                                                                                     150%
                                                                                                            200%
                                                                                                                      250%
                                             PI                    so
                                               SI C N                    lin
                                                   C         G               e
                                                     NG (b
                                                                    i- f
                                                                         ue
                                                  PI (de
                                                     SI         di            l)
                                                        L P cat
                                                             G            ed
                                                                              )
                                                                (b
                                                                    i- f




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium
                                                 DI        D            ue
                                                    CI ICI                   l)
                                                        +          Di
                                                           DP es
                                                                                                                             Base: Gasoline PISI




                                                               F            el
                                                                                                            ICEs


                                                                  D
                                                                      ie
                                                 PI                       se
                                                   SI DIC                      l
                                                       C           ID
                                                          -H
                                                             2            M
                                                                70 E
                                                                      M
                                                             PI Pa
                                                                SI
                                                DI                   L-
                                                                           H2
                                                   SI
                                                       Hy
                                                           b.
                                                              G
                                                     PI          as
                                                        SI           ol
                                                            H             in
                                          DI       DI         yb            e
                                             CI        CI         .C
                                                H          Hy            N
                                          PI yb.               b. G
                                            SI         +          Di
                                                                       e
                                                H         D
                                                  yb         PF sel
                                                     .C           Di
                                                         -H            es
                                                                                                            Hybrids




                                                             2              e
                                                     PI         70 l
                                                        SI           M
                                                            H              P
                                                               yb a
                                                                  .L
                                                                        -H
                                                  FC                         2
                                                       C-
                                                           H2
                                           FC                   70
                                                                      M
                                                Hy                         P
                                                    b.         FC a
                                                       C             L-
                                                         -H
                                                             2             H2
                                           Re                   7
                                                       FC 0 M
                                               f+
                                                  FC Hy Pa
                                           Re
                                                                                                            FCs




                                                       Hy b. L
                                              f+                        -
                                                 FC b. G H2
                                                                                                                                                   Additional cost of alternative 2010+ vehicles




                                                      Hy a so
                                                          b.            li
                                                              M ne
                                                                et
                                                                   ha
                                                                          no
                                                                               l
Slide 23
                                                                                 Cost v. potential for CO2 avoidance
      Oil price scenario: 50 €/bbl                                                                                                        Hydrogen




                                                                      120%
                  % CO 2 avoided compared to conventional fuel case




                                                                      100%



                                                                      80%

                                                                                 H2 NG (FC)
                                                                      60%        H2 wood (ICE)
                                                                                 H2 wood (FC)
                                                                                 H2 (wood/MeOH+ref+FC)
                                                                      40%        H2 nuclear (ICE)
                                                                                 H2 nuclear (FC)
                                                                                 H2 wind (ICE)
                                                                      20%        H2 wind (FC)



                                                                       0%
                                                                             0        200           400   600        800    1000   1200    1400

                                                                                                          €/t CO2 avoided




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                              Slide 24
                                                      Cost of CO2 avoidance v. cost of substitution
      Oil price scenario: 50 €/bbl                                                                                Hydrogen


                                                     3000



                                                     2500
               € spent / t fossil fuel substituted




                                                     2000



                                                     1500

                                                                                                            H2 NG (FC)
                                                                                                            H2 wood (ICE)
                                                     1000                                                   H2 wood (FC)
                                                                                                            H2 (wood/MeOH+ref+FC)
                                                                                                            H2 nuclear (ICE)
                                                      500                                                   H2 nuclear (FC)
                                                                                                            H2 wind (ICE)
                                                                                                            H2 wind (FC)
                                                        0
                                                            0   200   400   600        800    1000   1200         1400

                                                                            €/t CO2 avoided




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                             Slide 25
                                                                Cost of substitution v. CO2 avoidance
      Oil price scenario: 50 €/bbl                                                                                                      Hydrogen


                                                         6000
                                                                                                                               H2 NG (ICE)
                                                                                                                               H2 NG (FC)
                                                                                                                               H2 coal (ICE)
                                                         5000                                                                  H2 coal (FC)
                                                                                                                               H2 wood (ICE)
                   € spent / t fossil fuel substituted




                                                                                                                               H2 wood (FC)
                                                                                                                               H2 NG+ely (ICE)
                                                         4000
                                                                                                                               H2 NG+ely (FC)
                                                                                                                               H2 coal+ely (ICE)
                                                                                                                               H2 coal+ely (FC)
                                                         3000                                                                  H2 nuclear (ICE)
                                                                                                                               H2 nuclear (FC)
                                                                                                                               H2 wind (ICE)
                                                                                                                               H2 wind (FC)
                                                         2000
                                                                                                                               H2 (Gasoline+ref+FC)
                                                                                                                               H2 (NG/MeOH+ref+FC)
                                                                                                                               H2 (Coal/MeOH+ref+FC)
                                                         1000                                                                  H2 (wood/MeOH+ref+FC)




                                                           0
                                                           -500%   -400%   -300%     -200%    -100%     0%       100%   200%

                                                                    % CO2 avoided compared to conventional fuel case




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                                Slide 26
                     Hydrogen production potential from biomass
        Max hydrogen scenario
                Woody biomass from all available land to hydrogen (used in a fuel cell vehicle)
                Surplus sugar beet and wheat straw to ethanol
                Organic waste to biogas

     2012 projections including:          25%
                                                               Diesel EU-25 road fuel market
                                                                     in 2015: 297 Mt/a
     Set-asides
     Sugar beet surplus                  20%
                                                   Fraction of total road fuels market
                                                   replaced (for constant distance driven)
     Agricultural yield improvements              Fraction of WTW fossil energy avoided
     Wheat straw surplus
                                          15%
     Unused wood waste
     Organic waste to biogas
                                          10%

     But excluding
     Currently not cultivated land       5%

     Pastures
                                          0%
                                                    Max hydrogen (ICE)                         Max hydrogen (FC)




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                            Slide 27
            HYDROGEN v. OTHER ALTERNATIVE FUELS




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium           Slide 28
                                                           Conventional fuels from crude oil
                                                     220



                                                     200
                                                                                                                                     PISI
                            WTW GHG (g CO2eq / km)                                                          Gasoline 2002
                                                                                                                        DISI
                                                     180
                                                                                         Conv. Diesel
                                                                                            2002
                                                                       Conv. Diesel
                                                                          2010           DPF            Gasoline 2010
                                                     160
                                                                               no DPF

                                                     140                              Gasoline
                                                                                      2010 hyb.

                                                     120         Conv. Diesel
                                                                  2010 hyb.

                                                     100
                                                           150   170            190               210       230                250          270
                                                                                  WTW energy (MJ / 100 km)


        Continued developments in engine and vehicle technologies will reduce
         energy use and GHG emissions
                Spark ignition engines have more potential for improvement than diesel
                Hybridization can provide further GHG and energy use benefits



JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                           Slide 29
                                                          Hydrogen v. CNG
                                          WTW energy                  2010+ vehicles                   WTW GHG


                 C-H2 FC hyb.                                                 C-H2 FC hyb.
                                                                FC                                                           FC
                     C-H2 FC                                                       C-H2 FC

                                                                      TTW                                                          TTW
                                                                      WTT                                                          WTT

                C-H2 PISI hyb.                                               C-H2 PISI hyb.


                    C-H2 PISI                                                     C-H2 PISI


                CNG PISI hyb.                                                 CNG PISI hyb.
                                                                ICE                                                          ICE
               CNG (4000 km)                                                CNG (4000 km)
                    PISI                                                         PISI

                 Conv. Diesel                                                  Conv. Diesel
                  DICI+DPF                                                      DICI+DPF


                 Gasoline PISI                                                Gasoline PISI


                                 0    100       200       300   400                           0   50        100        150   200

                                            MJ / 100 km                                                 g CO2eq / km



          If hydrogen is produced from NG, GHG emissions savings compared to
                 direct use as CNG are only achieved with fuel cell vehicles



JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                  Slide 30
                                                                                    Ethanol
                                                  WTW fossil energy                                                     WTW GHG
                                                                                All figures for
                             Sugar cane                                      2010+ PISI vehicles     Sugar cane


                           Farmed wood                                                             Farmed wood
                            Wheat straw                                                             Wheat straw


                              Straw CHP                                                               Straw CHP
                             Lignite CHP                                                             Lignite CHP
                                                                              DDGS as
                            NG GT+CHP                                           fuel                NG GT+CHP                                 DDGS as
                                                                                                                                                fuel
                            Conv. Boiler                                                            Conv. Boiler

                                                                                      Wheat
                              Straw CHP                                                                                                                 Wheat
                                                                                                      Straw CHP
                             Lignite CHP                                                             Lignite CHP
                                                                               DDGS as
                            NG GT+CHP                                                               NG GT+CHP                                DDGS as
                                                                              animal feed
                                                                                                                                            animal feed
                            Conv. Boiler                                                            Conv. Boiler


                                                                                    Sugar                                                               Sugar
                             Pulp to heat                                                            Pulp to heat
                                                                                     beet                                                                beet
                      Pulp to animal feed                                                     Pulp to animal feed

                                                                 TTW           WTT                                           TTW        WTT
                                Gasoline                                                                Gasoline

                                            -50     0    50   100      150    200     250                           0   50     100    150      200        250

                                                          MJfo / 100 km                                                      g CO2eq / km

       Conventional production of ethanol as practiced in Europe gives modest fossil
        energy/GHG savings compared with gasoline
                Existing European pathways can be improved by use of co-generation and/or use of by-
                 products for heat
                Choice of crop and field N2O emissions play a critical part
                Advanced processes (from wood or straw) can give much higher savings


JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                                         Slide 31
                                                                             Bio-diesel
                                                                            All figures for
                                              WTW fossil energy                                            WTW GHG
                                                                       2010+ DICI+DPF vehicle
                                                                                      SME: glycerine
                      SME: glycerine as
                                                                                      as animal feed
                        animal feed
                                                                                      SME: glycerine
                      SME: glycerine as
                                                                                       as chemical
                         chemical




                      REE: glycerine as                                               REE: glycerine
                        animal feed                                                   as animal feed

                      REE: glycerine as                                               REE: glycerine
                         chemical                                                      as chemical




                     RME: glycerine as                                                RME: glycerine
                       animal feed                                                    as animal feed

                     RME: glycerine as                                                RME: glycerine
                        chemical                                                       as chemical



                                                         TTW           WTT                                      TTW            WTT

                           Conv. Diesel                                                 Conv. Diesel


                                          0     50     100      150     200    250                     0   50         100      150   200

                                                       MJfo / 100 km                                            g CO2eq / km


        Bio-diesel saves fossil energy and GHG compared to conventional diesel
                Field N2O emissions play a big part in the GHG balance and are responsible for the large
                 uncertainty
                Use of glycerine has a relatively small impact
                Sunflower is more favourable than rape


JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                    Slide 32
                                                           Syn-diesel and DME
                                              WTW energy                             2010+ vehicles                    WTW GHG
                                                                             TTW
                                                                             WTT
                         Waste wood via BL                                                    Waste wood via BL
                                                                                                                                                    DME
                              Farmed wood                                                          Farmed wood                                      DICI

                                       Coal                                 DME                             Coal
                                                                            DICI
                                Remote NG                                                            Remote NG



                    Waste wood via BL (BTL)                                              Waste wood via BL (BTL)
                                                                                                                                               Syn-diesel
                        Farmed wood (BTL)                                                    Farmed wood (BTL)                                 DICI+DPF

                                 Coal (CTL)                                                           Coal (CTL)
                                                                       Syn-diesel
                          NG Remote (GTL)                              DICI+DPF                NG Remote (GTL)



                         CNG bi-fuel (LNG)                                                    CNG bi-fuel (LNG)

                      Conv. diesel DICI+DPF                                                Conv. diesel DICI+DPF

                                              0   100   200    300    400      500                                 0     100       200        300          400

                                                        MJ / 100 km                                                            g CO2eq / km


      Diesel synthesis requires more energy than conventional diesel refining from
       crude oil
      Syn-diesel from NG (GTL) is nearly GHG neutral compared to conventional
       diesel, syn-diesel from coal (CTL) produces considerably more GHG
      The use of biomass (BTL processes) involves very little fossil energy and
       therefore produces little GHG emissions because the synthesis processes are
       fuelled by the biomass itself


JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                                          Slide 33
        Hydrogen remains considerably more expensive than other routes
      Oil price scenario: 50 €/bbl


                                                 3000

                                                                                                                  CNG PISI (BF)
                                                                                                                  CNG hybrid
                                                 2500
                                                                                                                  Syn-diesel w ood
                                                                                                                  DME w ood
           € spent / t fossil fuel substituted




                                                                                                                  DME w ood BL
                                                 2000                                                             EtOH sugar beet
                                                                                                                  EtOH w heat
                                                                                                                  EtOH straw or w ood
                                                                                                                  Bio-diesel
                                                 1500
                                                                                                                  H2 NG (FC)
                                                                                                                  H2 w ood (ICE)
                                                                                                                  H2 w ood (FC)
                                                 1000                                                             Syn-diesel w ood BL
                                                                                                                  H2 nuclear (ICE/FC)
                                                                                                                  H2 w ind (ICE/FC)
                                                  500                                                             H2 (w ood/MeOH+ref+FC)
                                                                                                                  CBG PISI (BF)
                                                                                                                  CNG PISI (ded.)

                                                    0



                                                 -500
                                                     -200   0   200   400        600          800   1000   1200      1400

                                                                            €/t CO2 avoided




JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                    Slide 34
                     The potential of biomass in Europe: overview
          25.0%



                          Fraction of total road fuels market replaced                                         2012 projections including:
          20.0%           (for constant distance driven)
                          Fraction of WTW fossil energy avoided
                                                                                                               Set-asides
                                                                                                               Sugar beet surplus
          15.0%                                                                                                Agricultural yield improvements
                                                                                                               Wheat straw surplus
                                           + 1.8% for naphtha                                                  Unused wood waste
                                              co-production
          10.0%                                                                                                Organic waste to biogas

                                                                                                               But excluding
           5.0%
                                                                                                               Currently not cultivated land
                                                                                                               Pastures
           0.0%
                  Conventional     Max ethanol     Max syn-diesel        Max DME   Max hydrogen Max hydrogen
                    Biofuels                                                           (ICE)        (FC)


       Conventional Biofuels: Wheat and sugar beet to ethanol, oilseeds to bio-diesel, wheat straw not used
       All other scenarios:   Surplus sugar beet and wheat straw to ethanol
                              Organic waste to biogas
       Max ethanol:           Woody biomass from all available land to ethanol
       Max syn-diesel:        Woody biomass from all available land to syn-diesel
                              Also produces naphtha
       Max DME:               Woody biomass from all available land to DME
       Max Hydrogen:          Woody biomass from all available land to hydrogen (used in a fuel cell vehicle)



JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                         Slide 35
                                   There are many ways of using gas
                        Potential for CO2 avoidance from 1 MJ remote gas (as LNG)

                                 C-H2 ex LNG, central
                                    reforming, ICE


                                  C-H2 ex LNG, central
                                     reforming, FC


                                   CH2 ex LNG, on site
                                     reforming, FC
                                                                                             Reference case:
                                                                                             2010 ICE with
                                      Syn-diesel (GTL)
                                                                                             conventional fuel


                                          CNG ex LNG



                                 Electricity ex LNG (vs
                                 Coal, state-of-the-art)


                                                           -20   0           20         40            60         80

                                                                     g CO2 avoided / MJ natural gas




           Substitution of marginal electricity is likely to be the most CO2 efficient
                           Only fuel cell vehicles can come close


JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                               Slide 36
                         There are many ways of using wind power
                           Potential for CO2 avoidance from 1 MJ wind electricity
                                                                                                         Reference case:
                                       C-H2, central
                                     electrolysis, ICE
                                                                                                         2010 ICE with
                                                                                                         conventional fuel

                                       C-H2, central
                                      electrolysis, FC




                                  Electricity (vs Coal,
                                    state-of-the-art)




                                   Electricity (vs NG,
                                         CCGT)



                                                          0   50        100       150        200         250     300
                                                                   g CO2 avoided / MJ wind electricity




           Substitution of marginal electricity is likely to be the most CO2 efficient
           Only fuel cell vehicles can come close
           Issues related to energy storage must also be taken into account


JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                      Slide 37
      Alternative use of primary energy resources - Biomass
                               Potential for CO2 avoidance from 1 ha of land

                                HYDROGEN + FC (wood gasification via black liquor)

                               HYDROGEN + ICE (wood gasification via black liquor)

                                             DME (wood gasification via black liquor)

                                     SYN-DIESEL (wood gasification via black liquor)



                                                HYDROGEN + FC (wood gasification)

                                                HYDROGEN + ICE (wood gasification)                               Naphtha

                                                             DME (wood gasification)

                                                     SYN-DIESEL (wood gasification)
                                                                                                         Reference case for road fuels:
                                                                                                         2010 ICE with conventional fuel
                                             RME (rape seeds, glycerine as chemical)

                                                                    ETHANOL (wood)

                          ETHANOL (wheat grain, DDGs to heat & power, straw CHP)

                         ETHANOL (wheat grain, DDGs to animal feed, NG GT + CHP)

                                          ETHANOL (sugar beet, pulp to animal feed)



                        ELEC (wood gasification v. coal state-of-the-art conventional)

                                               ELEC (wood gasification v. NG CCGT)

                                                                                         0   5      10            15         20            25

                                                                                                 Mt CO2 avoided / ha / a


                    Wood gasification or direct use of biomass for heat and power
                                    offers greatest GHG savings


JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                                                                                         Slide 38
                         Well-to-Wheels analysis
               of future automotive fuels and powertrains
                         in the European context

                         The study report will be available on the WEB:
                                          http://ies.jrc.cec.eu.int/WTW
                              For questions / inquiries / requests / notes
                                          to the consortium,
                               please use the centralised mail address:
                                           infoWTW@jrc.it



JEC WTW study 12/2005. HyCARE Symposium                                      Slide 39

				
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