The Harmful Algal Bloom Forecasting System
Where is it now and where will it be tomorrow?
Nowcasts and Forecasts to Support State and Local Managers to: •Improve detection •Reduce impacts on tourism •Plan response activities
•Improve public information
•Guide sampling
Photo: www.whoi.edu
Multiple Audiences, Multiple Needs
Traditional
Monitoring agencies
- require frequent and timely information and are willing to accept some uncertainty in their HAB forecasts. - use this information to guide sampling efforts and keep false alerts to a minimum. New
Industry and Public
- concerned about public health impacts - accurate information to mitigate impacts of red tide - public wants specific locations and forecasts so they can adjust beach plans.
Need for Timely Information Primary users of information
• Fisheries managers (shellfish) • Water Quality managers • Public health officials • Local government
Warning Time Management Options
seasonal re-allocate resources alter monitoring schedules change harvesting policy alter monitoring schedules change harvesting policy alert businesses and public health offices prepare for clean-up alter monitoring schedules alert businesses and public health offices prepare for clean-up extensive testing of harvested products initiate public health warnings divert resources to monitoring and clean-up
week – 3 days
24 hours
Additional users
• • • • • General public Tourist industry Research community Teachers Media
none
Current Status of System for the Gulf of Mexico
•
– –
Florida, (operational since 2004), Collaboration with state agencies
Operational Bulletin for managers in Florida Conditions Report available to the public
•
– – –
Texas, Collaboration with TPWD and TexHAB
Experimental Bulletin available now Operational demonstration bulletin for managers (Oct 1, 2006) Conditions Report available to the public (Oct 1, 2006)
HAB Forecast System
Observations
(satellite imagery, Buoys, field samples)
Model output
(physical, ecological, health impacts)
Analysis of data and models
Conditions Report
Conditions Report (public) HAB Bulletin (managers)
What is operational? • Operational on a 5-day week (Analysts available every day)
• Comprehensive analysis and graphics e-mailed to state/local managers at least twice a week (subscription only)
• Information to public and businesses twice a week
– Bulletins available to the public after minimum 1 week delay
• Public Information updated twice weekly- text only (Webbased)
– Current conditions and expected conditions for next 1-3 days
• Other information available on Web-site
– Various data sets have been available for over two years
Bulletin Distributed to State/Local/Federal Managers
Page 1 Page 1
Page 2
Agencies using HAB Bulletin
Over 40 agencies
County Government State Government Federal Government Non-governmental organizations
Conditions Report for Public
• Available to public on HAB FS website when bulletin is issued • Provides information only on verified blooms • Contains minimal scientific terminology and jargon
http://www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/habf
Conditions Report
• Provides information on: – Location of verified blooms – Expected impacts at the beach – Presence of harmless blooms and discolored water – Reports of dead fish. • Example Conditions: Low concentration of harmful algae offshore of Nueces County, forecasted southwesterly winds • Conditions Report:
Monday, April 26, 2003
Harmful algae offshore of Nueces County. No impacts are expected at the coast. No red tide elsewhere in Texas.
Conditions Report for Red Tide Impact at the Beach
NOAA Red Tide Impacts on Public Health Red Tide Level
None None Low Low
Shellfish closures Asthmatics may be affected; others may experience discomfort.
Medium
High
NOAA Data, State data Satellite Imagery Models (transport, impacts) Analysis
Moderate
Many experience some discomfort.
High*
Most experience discomfort.
*rare at present
Additional Information Provided to the Public
The FAQs provide information regarding: • Data sources • Background on K. brevis biology • Possible beach and human health impacts • What information is provided by HAB FS
• Frequency of Conditions Report publication
• Explanation of Red tide/HAB terminology • Further resources and guidance
Feedback is Critical to Continued Success • Rick Stumpf or Shelly Tomlinson
– richard.stumpf@noaa.gov, 301-713-3028 x173 – michelle.tomlinson@noaa.gov, 301-713-3028 x225
• Rebecca Love
– rebecca.love@noaa.gov, 843-740-1169
• Emails on Red Tides (HABs): hab@noaa.gov • Site: www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/habf