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```					             Populations

Chapter 24

http://blue.census.gov/ipc/www/clock.html
Human Population

• We have seen
factors that
influence the growth
of populations in
general.
• Next we will apply
some of these to the
human population.
Fig. 24.22

Exponential
growth in the
human population
G=rxN
World Population: 2002

N = 6,228,394,430
r =          1.18
G =    73,915,261

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/world.html
Changes in birthrates and death rates in Sri Lanka

Births - Deaths = r
World Population Events
Time unit       Births      Deaths       Growth
-------------------------------------------------
Year       131,571,719   55,001,289    76,570,430
Month       10,964,310    4,583,441     6,380,869
Day            360,470      150,688       209,782
Hour            15,020        6,279         8,741
Minute             250          105           146
Second             4.2          1.7           2.4
-------------------------------------------------
Fig. 24.25
Examine the population
demographics of these countries.
• Sweden
• Mexico
• United States
– Determine G, N and r
• http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbsum.html
Age structures of three nations

Shrinking                 Growing                Stable

Are these growing, shrinking or stable populations?
• Create a single powerpoint slide containing
– Data on your assigned variable for France,
Tanzania and the United States (be sure to
include units).
– Explain the impact of curing heart disease and
malaria on your variable – OR -
– Explain the impact of population changes
– The name of your group members.

• Go to D2L and put them in the drop box.
Pop. Pyramid http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html
N, r, and G   http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbsum.html

Variable                                      Predict
1.    N, r, and G                                   Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable
2.    Life expectancy                               Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable
3.    Kids/woman                                    Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable
4.    Infant Mortality                              Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable
5.    Adult Mortality                               Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable
6.    Immigration Emigration                        Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable
7.    Ecological footprint                          Change of variable in 2050 vs. today
8.    Water supply amt./quality                     Change of variable in 2050 vs. today
9.    Population density                            Change of variable in 2050 vs. today
10.   Land use                                      Change of variable in 2050 vs. today
11.   Wildness                                      Change of variable in 2050 vs. today
Heart Disease is the leading cause of
death in developed countries.
• 50% of all deaths in US and
Europe, typically >50 years old.
• Caused by obesity, poor diet,
lack of exercise, diabetes, and
genetic factors.

Clot in Coronary Artery
Malaria kills 2-3 million humans
annually (90% of malaria deaths are in
Subsaharan Africa)

Caused by Plasmodium parasite and
transmitted by mosquito

Affects primarily children under age
of five and pregnant women
(Malaria kills an African child every 30 sec)
Example:
Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau
Tanzania France             USA

Life              65 yrs       75 yrs         70 yrs
Expectancy
Curing            No           Increase Decrease
By:         Malaria           impact

I.M. Smart Curing             Increase     Decrease No
M.E. Too    Heart Disease                           impact

NOTE, THESE ARE NOT CORRECT
Next class period we will…
– Present your slides in class and use them for
discussion.
– Discuss the impact of curing heart disease and
malaria on some of these variables.
– Discuss the impact of population changes
predicted for 2050 on the other variables.
– This is worth 5 points on the final exam.
Fig. 24.25
Age structures of three nations

Shrinking                 Growing                Stable

Are these growing, shrinking or stable populations?
Heart Disease is the leading cause of
death in developed countries.
• 50% of all deaths in US and
Europe, typically >50 years old.
• Caused by obesity, poor diet,
lack of exercise, diabetes, and
genetic factors.

Clot in Coronary Artery
Malaria kills 2-3 million humans
annually (90% of malaria deaths are in
Subsaharan Africa)

Caused by Plasmodium parasite and
transmitted by mosquito

Affects primarily children under age
of five and pregnant women
(Malaria kills an African child every 30 sec)
Examine the data you collected
=                             X

Tanzania                      France                       USA
N
36,071,000 60,424,000 293,028,000
r      Births/1000 population=41   Births/1000 population=13   Births/1000 population=14
Deaths/1000 population=18   Deaths/1000 population=9    Deaths/1000 population=9
R=23/1000 people            R=4/1000 people             R=5/1000 people

G       2000-2010 growth               2000-2010                2000-2010 growth
rate will be 2.0%           growth rate will            rate will be 0.9%
be 0.4%
Curing       The population                 No impact                   No impact
Malaria      would increase           Malaria isn’t common        Malaria isn’t common in
Malaria is common in        in developed countries       developed countries
underdeveloped
By: Tiffany Tyson,                    countries
Chantelle Pelzer, and
Emily Brickert
Curing          No Impact             Would increase the          Would increase the
Disease     mainly developed           Heart Disease effects       Heart Disease effects
countries               mainly developed            mainly developed
countries                   countries
N, r, and G for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau
Tanzania     France          USA

N (Total Population) 36,071,000 60,424,000       293,028,000

R (Growth Rate)     1.1%         -0.3%           0.7%

G (Change In)       396,781      (181,272)       2,051,196

By:              Curing              Increase N, No Impact        No Impact
David Feivor     Malaria             r, and G
Tim Molinarolo
Chelsea Enger    Curing              Increase N, Increase N, r,   Increase N, r,
Nathan Tock      Heart Disease       r, and G    and G            and G
G, r and N for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau
Tanzania      France    USA

G                864,000       300,000   2.93 MIL
By:         r                2.4%          0.5%      1.0%
Mike        N                36 MIL        60 MIL    293 MIL
Loeffler
Curing           Increase      No        No Impact
Malaria                        Impact
Pete
Johnson
Curing           No Impact Increase      Increase
Heart
Disease
2

*If a cure for Malaria and heart disease are found, then the
populations will increase, and life expectancy will also increase .

By: Brittany Conant, Claire Knoble, Wren Walker
Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States &
Effects of Curing Malaria and Heart Disease

Tanzania         France          USA

Life                   44 yrs           78.8 yrs        76.6 yrs.
Expectancy
Curing                 Increase         No Impact No
Malaria                                           Impact
Curing Heart           No Impact Increase               Increase
Disease

By: Andrea Fox, Brett Gullicksrud, Rachel Knutson, Katie Penniston, Pangdra Vang
Source: US Census Bureau
Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau

Tanzania       France       USA

Life         44.1 yrs       78.8 yrs     76.6 yrs
Expectancy
By:              Curing       Increase       Increase     No Impact
Carrie Dietz     Malaria
Kristin Minter
Curing       Increase       Increase     Increase
Jenn Moulton
Heart
Cassie Huettl
Disease
Ryan Meighan
Fertility Rate Per Woman
Source: US Census Bureau
No impact for curing
heart disease because
USA         France              Tanzania        the women are above
childbearing age.
No impact for curing
2000 – 2025   2000 – 2025       2000 – 2025        malaria in the USA
Fertility                                                      or France because
2.1     2.2   1.9    1.8         5.5    3.4
Rate per                                                       they are developed
woman                                                          countries.
kids/woman    kids/woman         kids/woman
Increase in Tanzania
because less children
NO            NO               INCREASE
Curing                                                         will be dying and
pregnant women will
Malaria     IMPACT        IMPACT                               have fewer
complications.

Curing       NO            NO                NO           By Sara Schlough,
Kristine Tresemer,
Heart       IMPACT        IMPACT            IMPACT            Abby Biesterveld
Disease
Population of women/children for Tanzania, France, and United States
in the year 2000
Source: US Census Bureau

Tanzania    France      USA

Women/        7,464/      23,076/     104,477/
Children      18,624      15,066      80,559
By:
Curing        Increase    No          No
Brittany
Montgomery
Malaria                   Impact      Impact
And Brittany
Curing        No          Increase    Increase
Shipman
Heart Disease Impact
Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau

Tanzania France            USA

Infant         112 (male)/ 5(male)/  9 (male)/
Mortality      92 (female) 4(female) 7 (female)
By:                             per 1000 per 1000 per 1000
Katie McNeely,
Curing         Decrease Decrease Decrease
Elissa Bauer,
Malaria        Mortality
Amy Calhoun,
Nick Cerwin,     Curing        No            No            No
Becca Long
Heart Disease Impact        Impact        impact
Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and United States
*Sources: US Census Bureau & World Health Organization

Tanzania France     USA

Infant         109 per    5 per    7 per
Mortality      1000       1000     1000
Curing         Decrease No         No
Malaria                 impact     impact
Curing        No          No       No
Heart Disease impact      impact   impact

By: Emily Noel, Christine Benzschawel, & Karin Mueller
4. Infant Mortality Rate for Tanzania, France, and United
States
Source: US Census Bureau and MamasHealth.com
By Jackie Henry and Lindsie Miller

Tanzania               France        USA

Infant Mortality 109 deaths 5 deaths                     7 deaths
Rate per 1000
births
Curing           Decrease No                             No Impact
Malaria                     Impact
Curing              Decrease               No            Decrease
Heart Disease                              Impact
Source: US Census Bureau
France      Tanzania    USA

(m/f per 1000)

Curing Malaria                 No Impact   No Impact   No Impact

Curing Heart                   Decrease    No Impact   Decrease
Diseases

By: Katie Kratz, Sara Wanless, Marie Fouts
Adult Mortality for Tanzania, France, USA       By: Casy Dunphy
Source: US Census Bureau                        Meghan Jablonski

Tanzania       France       USA

512-F          60-F         83-F
Curing                     Subtle         Subtle       Subtle
Malaria                    impact         impact       impact

Curing                     Decrease       Decrease     Decrease
Heart Disease
France                    Tanzania                USA
N= 60,424,000 ppl           N= 33,065,000 ppl      N= 293,028,000 ppl
R= 0.5% growth              R= 2.4% growth         R= 1.0 % growth
N,R,G       G= RN = 302,120 ppl         G= RN= 704,000         G= RN= 2,930,000
ppl                    ppl

Info not available     Males: 140 per 1000
Males: 133 per 1000         on the WHO             Females: 83 per
Females: 60 per 1000
Mortality                               death rate is 18 per
thousand in the
population

Curing      Will not have a large       Will slightly lower    Will not have a large
Malaria     because malaria             because malaria is     mortality because
primarily effects kids      prevalent in           malaria is not
subsaharan Africa      prevalent in the US
Heart       mortality because HD is     significantly lower    mortality because HD
countries                   big killer of adults   countries
in Tanzania

Source: US Census Bureau, World Health Organization
By: Pat Kelly, Andrea Keohane, and RAJ
United States ---------12.22 hectares per capita       As the population
increases over the
France-------------------7.27 hectares per capita      next 45 years, the
concentration of
Tanzania----------------1.02 hectares per capita       people per hectare will
increase which results
1.0 hectares =2.471 acres                              in a lower ecological
footprint per capita.
By:
Andrew Trawinski and Sam Callan
Source: Nationmaster.com

Water                        21,898        3,349 cubic     94,353 cubic
cubic         meters          meters
Availability                 meters

Population                   Increase      Decrease        Decrease
Changes

By: Kristina Hertel and Vanessa Keller
Water Availability for Tanzania,
France, and United States
Water Supply Amount/Quality for Tanzania, France, and
the United States
Source: nationmaster.com

Tanzania                France            United States
Water Supply Amount*      3.64 thousand cubic   3.26 thousand cubic       7.09 thousand
(in cubic meters)              meters                meters              cubic meters
Freshwater pollution*           N/A            2.49 tons per cubic   1.14 tons per cubic km
(in tons per cubic km)                                 km

Population from present        Increases             Increases              Increases
time to 2050

*The increasing populations of France, Tanzania, and the United States in 2050
will cause the water supply to decrease and the fresh water pollution rate to
increase.
Presentation created by: Ryan Klein, Jackie Rinzel, Kim Skuster, Krista
Woolever, and Sarah Kleman
Water Supply Amount and Quality for Tanzania, France, and United
States
Tanzania                 France                     USA

Water                Water Availability:     Water Availability:     Water Availability:
3.64 thousand cubic     3.26 thousand cubic     7.09 thousand cubic
Supply                      meters                  meters                  meters
Amount and            Freshwater Pollution:   Freshwater Pollution:   Freshwater Pollution:
0.00 tons/cubic km      2.49 tons/cubic km      1.14 tons/cubic km
Quality
Today
Water                Water Availability:     Water Availability:     Water Availability:
Decrease                 Same                   Decrease
Supply              Freshwater Pollution:   Freshwater Pollution:   Freshwater Pollution:
Amount and                  Increase                Increase                Increase
*POPULATION             *POPULATION              *POPULATION
Quality in             PREDICTED TO          PREDICTED SAME          PREDICTED TO BE
2050                DOUBLE BY 2050            SIZE AS NOW          1.5 TIMES LARGER

Sources: www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/env_eco_foo&int=-1; US Census Bureau
By: Dena Shefelbine, Scott Szukalski, Klarissa Czys, Whitney Miller, Erik Haworth
Population Density for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau International Data Base

In persons /      Tanzania France          USA
sq. km.
Today             40.7         110.7       32

By: Brian
2050              81.2         111.8       45.8
Peters,
Alexa
Jaime
Population densities for France, Tanzania, and U.S.
Source: www. Census.gov/ipc/wwwidbagg.html (001 density)

France              Tanzania       U.S.

Population Today         60,424,213           36,071,799   293,028,571
Density (persons per         110.7                40.7         32.0
sq. km.)
Population 2050          61,017,122           71,949,135   420,081,587
Density (persons per         111.8                81.2         45.8
sq. km.)

Impact               Increase             Increase     Increase

Christina Berggren, Jordan Hauser, and Michelle Huhn
Population Density for United States, France and Tanzania
Source: U.S. Census Brureau

United         France         Tanzania
States
293,027,571    60,424,213     36,070,799
Population
2004
420,080,587    61,017,122     71,949,135
Population
2050
Population         Increase       Increase       Increase
Density                           Slightly

Crystal Svoboda, Amanda Zellner, Tony Caauwe, Natosha Hoffmann
Land Use
Land Use – percent of total land area available for: cultivated crops (arable land), permanent
crops (Permanent), and other areas (Other) such as prairies, pastures, forests, and built-on lands.
It is predicted that the population in Tanzania and the United States will almost double, while the
growth rate of France is not nearly as high.

Country       Type of Land        Percent of       Prediction for
land (%)             2050
Tanzania          Arable              4.52              Increase
Permanent             1.08              Decrease
Other              94.4              Increase
United States       Arable             19.13              Decrease
Permanent             0.22              No Impact
Other             80.65              Increase
France           Arable             33.53              Decrease
Permanent             2.07              Decrease
Other              64.4              Increase

By: Breann Sommer, Jens Hogberg, Lindsay Tietz, & James Bodah
Wildness for Tanzania, France, and
United States
Wildness          Tanzania       France            USA
Today                9.30%      0.04%           35.89%
Decrease      Decrease
2050                                           Decrease
substantially   Slightly

Tanzania will decrease because they are still a developing
country. France will decrease slightly because they have used up
most of their unprotected land. The USA will decrease because
of our increasing population. Not all of the land will be used
because the United States has one of the largest masses of
preserved land. All of the countries will decrease in wildness
because the world population has not reached its carrying
capacity.

By: Amy Yoel, Megan Brisch,
Alison Smetana, Ethan Lor                 Source: www.nationmaster.com
# 11 Wildness
Michelle Tentis
Megan Brennan
Rachael Stanze

United States     France        Tanzania

Wildness       35.89%           .04%          9.3%
Current      290,342,554     60,180,529    35,922,454
Population
Growth Rate        .92%           .42%          1.72%

Effect of Pop. Because the growth rate is positive in all
On Wildness three countries, the wildness will be depleted
in 2050        as a result of necessary expansion.
Examine the data you collected
• For each variable, determine the impact of
curing malaria and heart disease on that
variable.
In developed countries, what
happens if we cure heart disease?
• Population
No significant increase

• Consumption
Increase

• Quality of life
Increases life expectancy, but will also increase
heath costs and drain on resources
In developing countries, what
happens if we cure malaria?
• Population
Significant increase

• Consumption
Increase

• Quality of life
Increases life expectancy, but will also dramatically
increase use of already scarce resources
Impact of Disease on Population
• Which would have a greater impact on
world population, curing heart disease or
curing malaria?

MALARIA
Parasitologist’s Dilemma
• What happens if we don’t cure malaria?
Death rate stays high, population growth is suppressed

• What happens if we do cure malaria?
Death rate drops, population grows more rapidly

• What could you do to keep population
growth low, while still curing malaria?
What could you do to keep population
growth low, while still curing malaria?
Decrease fertility rate per woman
Less developed countries          3.05
More developed countries          1.57
Start having children at age 30 vs. 15
Birth-control
Abstinence, contraception, sterilization
Other
Education of women, affluence (wealth)
Why do we want to keep
population growth low?
• In many poor countries resources are
– Tanzania < 2,000 calories per day
– France, USA >3,200 calories per day
• If population increases, available food per
person decreases.
• This leads to increased pressure on the
environment and ecosystems around the
world
Is there a correlation between
consumption and quality of life?
France       Tanzania        USA

Consumption       Average        Low           High

Quality of Life   Highest        Low           High

Quality
Of Life

Consumption (ecological footprint)
Is the current level of consumption
in the US sustainable?

Tanzania   France   USA
Footprint (ha/person)         1.0       7.3     12.2
Actual resources (ha/person)     0.6       7.4     8.0
Net Difference             -0.4     +0.1     -4.2

• No, we must import a third of our resources.
Impact of consumption on the environment

• Consumption by the average American
– The US uses 250-300 liters of water/person/day
• for drinking, cooking, bathing, sanitation, and
watering yards (the minimum amount needed for
those things MINUS the yard watering is 50
liters/person/day).
• In contrast, a country like Tanzania uses less than 5
liters of water/person/day.
– The average American consumed over 200
pounds of red meat, poultry, and fish in 2000.
– The average coffee drinker in the United States
drinks 3.1 cups of coffee/day.
Impact of consumption on the environment
• Consumption by the average American
– In 2001, the average American produced 4.4 pounds of
garbage waste per day
• (product packaging, clothes, food scraps, bottles, grass
clippings, etc., before recycling).
• Compare this to 2.7 pounds of garbage waste/person/day in
1960.
– About 91,286 million liters of soda are consumed/year.
This is over 300 liters/person/year!
– In 2001, the United States used 341.8 million Btus of
energy/person and emitted 5.5 metric tons of
carbon/person.
• In the same year, France used 177.8 million Btus/person and
emitted only 1.8 metric tons of carbon.
What is the impact of consumption
on the environment?
• To make a single 2 gram computer chip
requires
– 1.6 liters of fossil fuel
– 72 grams of chemicals
– 32 kilograms (8 gallons) of water
What is the impact of consumption
on the environment?
(compare Tanzania with France/USA)

Tanzania   France   USA
Pesticide use (kg/hectare)      600      3000     1600

Fertilizer use (kg/hectare)      7        263     112

SO4 produced (tons/km2)         100      1000     1600

Water pollution (tons/km3)      0.1       2.5     1.1

Wilderness remaining         9.3%      0.04%    36%
Ecological footprint          1        7.3     12.2
What is the impact of population
density on the environment?
(compare France with the USA)
Tanzania   France   USA
Pesticide use (kg/hectare)       600      3000     1600

Fertilizer use (kg/hectare)       7        263     112

SO4 produced (tons/km2)          100      1000     1600

Water pollution (tons/km3)        0.1       2.5     1.1

Wilderness remaining          9.3%      0.04%    36%
Population Density (people/km2)     40        110     31
Parasitologist’s Dilemma
• Should we try to cure malaria?

we should take at the same time?
Is there hope?
What type of growth is this?

Logistic
N
What determines K for humans?
• Adapt our environment to meet our
needs rather than adapt to our
environment.
• Predation
– Only ourselves
• Parasites
– Sanitation
– Medications
• Competition
– Mass extinctions
What is K for humans?
K = 1010 people?

Is this sustainable?
r
G
Feeding the world
• World’s farmers have doubled the food
supply since 1973
–   Miracle wheat seeds and high yielding rice
–   Irrigation
–   Fertilizers and pesticides
–   Genetically modified crops
–   Actually have more food/person than in 1973
Agricultural Production per Person
has remained relatively constant
Top 5 countries by population
(2003)
1   China           1,286,975,468
2   India           1,049,700,118
3   United States     290,342,554
4   Indonesia         234,893,453
5   Brazil            182,032,604
Population x Consumption =
Environmental Impact
Population      Consumption      Impact
(hect/person)   (hectares)
China    1,286,975,468             1.8   2,316,555,842

India     1,049,700,118             1.0   1,049,700,118

United     290,342,554             12.7   3,687,350,436
States
Indonesia    234,893,453              1.5    352,340,180

Brazil     182,032,604              2.6    473,284,770
Sustainable Development:
Land Used < Land Available
Impact           Available       Difference
(hectares)        (hectares)      (hectares)
China      2,316,555,842    1,544,370,562    -772,185,281

India        1,049,700,118    656,062,574     -393,637,544

United      3,687,350,436    2,322,740,432   -1,364,610,004
States
Indonesia       352,340,180     610,722,978      258,382,798

Brazil        473,284,770    1,019,382,582     546,097,812
Ecological impact
• Impact = population X consumption
• Americans consume more per capita than
anyone else on earth.
• It would take 3.28 billion Indians to
consume what 290 million Americans do.
Sustainable development
• A balance between population and
consumption within the limits imposed by
nature
• Need to achieve sustainability
– Reduction in pop growth in developing nations
– Reduction in consumption in developed nations
The End
Population
pyramids
for Tanzania
-2000
-2025
-2050
Population pyramids
for France
-2000
-2025
-2050
Population pyramids
for United States
-2000
-2025
-2050
General Pop. Stats.          Tanzania France USA
Pop. (in millions)           36.0    59.5    285.9
Infant Mortality             104     5       8
(death/1000 live births)
Fertility rate               5.5     1.7     2.0
Life Expectancy @ birth      46      72      76
Child mortality (per 1000)   159     5       8
Adult mortality (per 1000)   526     97      113
Health expenditure/          36      2,335   4,499
capita (Intl. \$)
Growth      Tanzania    France    USA
(G=r x N)
r (%)       2.9         0.4       1.1

N           35,964,000 59,452,000 285,925,000

G           1,042,956   237,808   3,145,175

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