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AXA_GFL_S-COLES

VIEWS: 2 PAGES: 42

									OPENING
PERSPECTIVES
ON LONGEVITY
28 MARCH 2011
SUPERCENTENAIRES,
EN PLEINE FORME !
SUPERCENTENARIANS,
ALIVE AND WELL!
IS THERE
AN UPPER LIMIT TO
HUMAN LONGEVITY?
Pr. Stephen COLES

Directeur du Groupe de Recherche sur la Gérontologie,
Université de Californie (Etats-Unis)
Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation
UCLA Molecular Biology Institute
Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 BLIND MEN
 TOUCHING THE ELEPHANT
                                                        Aging/Senescence - Disposable
                                                        Soma; “No babies are born old!”
                                                        Nature Seeks an Objective
                                                        Function: To Minimize the
                                                        probability of a Species Extinction
                                                        within an ecosystem subject to
                                                        Stochastic Variation in the
                                                        Environment (Entropy - Second
                                                        Law of Thermodynamics)
                                                        Antagonistic Pleiotropy
                                                        (Advantageous Genes in Early
                                                        Development May Become
                                                        Deleterious in Later Life)



28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 METAPHOR WITH AGING:
 ALCHEMY  CHEMISTRY
 (Periodic table of the elements)




 GOAL
 Transmutation of Base Metals into Gold or Silver  Science
28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute




                                                    Queen Bee/Queen Ant

                                                    Bowhead Whale

                                                    Heterochronic Parabiosis -
                                                    Young and Old Mouse with
                                                    a common blood supply
                                                    Old Mouse  Young /
                                                    Young Mouse  Old

                                                    Grandparenting Effect

                                                    Age-1 in C. elegans
                                                    True Longevity Right Shift
                                                    Not just Rectangularization


28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES                       Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 WORLD POPULATION
 200 KYA  TODAY
 (7.89 B Humans in 2025; 9.85 B in 2050)
                                                World Population Growth Through History
                                  8                                                                           Modern                             8
                                         Old            New           New                                         Age
                                  7     Stone        Stone Age       Stone        Bronze       Iron        Middle
                                                                                                                                                 7
             Billions of People




                                         Age        Commences         Age          Age         Age         Ages
                                  6                                                                                                              6

                                  5                                                                                                              5




                                                                                                               Black Death – The Plague
                                  4                                                                                                              4

                                  3                                                                                                              3

                                  2                                                                                                              2

                                  1                                                                                                              1

                                  0                                                                                                              0
                                      2.5 million   7000   6000   5000   4000   3000   2000   1000     1     1000                         2025
                                         years       BC     BC     BC     BC     BC     BC     BC     AD      AD                           AD        Year

   The total number of humans that have ever lived has been estimated at 110 Billion
            Approximately 6% of all those people are still alive today (6.88 B)

28/03/2011                        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 WORLD LIFE EXPECTANCY
 THROUGHOUT HISTORY




28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES                   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 RECTANGULARIZATION OF US
 LONGEVITY OVER ONE CENTURY
 [1900 - 1950 - 2004] Data from CDC NVSS Report (2007)
                                                      Percentage surviving by age
                    100
                                                                                                                                   1900 - 1902
                     90
                                                                                                                                   1949 - 1951
                     80
                                                                                                                                   2004
                     70
      % Surviving




                     60
                     50
                     40
                     30
                     20
                     10
                      0
                          0   5   10   15   20   25   30   35   40   45   50   55   60   65   70   75   80   85   90   95 100   Age in years

                                    Average Life Expectancy in [1900-1902]
                          49.24 years or 47.3 years for 1900 alone; in 2004 = ~78 years

28/03/2011                    SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES     Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 DEMOGRAPHICS
 OF CENTENARIANS
                               Projected Number of Centenarians

                                                                                834,000



                                                                         447,000
                                                           324,000
                                               214,000
                                  131,000
                       72,000


                        2000       2010          2020         2030          2040         2050      Year

Source: Midrange estimate from Centenarians in the United States, U.S. Census Bureau, 1999

28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 SUPERCENTENARIANS




28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 WHO IS A SUPERCENTENARIAN?


 • As of today (Monday, March 28th), there are 89 Validated
   Living Supercentenarians World Wide
   (USA : nonUS = 21 : 68) (Female : Male = 83 : 6)!

 • Once you were to make it to becoming a
   Supercentenarian, the chances of living even one more
   year is like flipping a coin (H:T or a 50% mortality rate)!

 • Therefore, these individuals are a very precious resource
   for humanity, and we need to act quickly; otherwise,
   whatever they have to teach us will be gone forever


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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 THE OLDEST DOCUMENTED
 SUPERCENTENARIAN IN HISTORY




                        40 yo                                    120 yo
 According to the Guinness Book of World Records, the oldest documented Supercentenarian
             in history was French woman Madame Jeanne-Louise CALMENT,
                           who died in 1997 at 122 years, 164 days

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Pr. L. Stephen COLES    Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 “It ain‟t over „til it‟s over.”
 Yogi BERRA




Jack LALANNE died at        96 yo

                   David MURDOCK,        87 yo
                  California billionaire plans his birthday party at 125 yo.
                  $500 million was spent on a state-of-the-art science center
                  dedicated to the hypothesis that food plants hold the key to a longevity.

28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 OLDEST BY COUNTRY

                          Country                                                    Age
France
(While Jeanne Calment reached age 122,                                              122
she definitely was not walking around at age 120)

UK
(The oldest British person since modern birth                                       115
registration began in 1837)

Spain                                                                               114
Italy                                                                               114
Sweden                                                                              113
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES        Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 MORTALITY PLATEAU
 FOR FRUIT FLIES
        0
                     5         10        15         20          25    Time (weeks)
      -0.2

      -0.4
                                                                          Mortality data for 1381 Drosohila
      -0.6                                                                melanogaster (Canton S strain).
                                                                          The continuous line shows a moving
      -0.8
                                                                          three point average. The crucial test
      -1.0                                                                concerns the slope of the line after
                                                                          90% of the population have died, in
      -1.2                                                                this case after week 16. The lines
                                              Log (mortality)
                                                                          added indicate fitted lines for the first
      -1.4                                    Moving average              90% and the last 10%.
      -1.6

      -1.8

      -2.0


1. Christopher Driver, “Opinion: A Further Comment on Why the Gompertz Plot Does Not Measure Aging” Biogerontology,
   Vol. 4, pp. 325-7 (2003).
2. James R. Carey, et al., “Slowing of Mortality Rates at Older Ages in Large Medfly Cohorts,” Science Vol. 258,
   No. 5081, pp. 457-61 (1992).

28/03/2011          SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES        Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 HUMAN MORTALITY [85 - 125] yo
 by Don GENNNERY, Biostatistician at JPL (Jan. 19, 2010)

   Estimates of mortality rate as a function of age,
                 derived from various data




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Pr. L. Stephen COLES       Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 SUPERCENTENARIAN MORTALITY RATES
 2007 AND 2010 [*]
                         August 7, 2007                                      April 1, 2010
         Number                                             Number
 Age    Surviving      Deaths    Yearly     Cumulative     Surviving    Deaths      Yearly      Cumulative
 123           0                                                 0
 122           1          -1    100.00%       100.00%            1          -1     100.00%       100.00%
 121           1           0      0.00%        99.90%            1           0       0.00%        99.92%
 120           2          -1     50.00%        99.90%            1           0       0.00%        99.92%
 119           3          -1     33.33%        99.80%            2          -1      50.00%        99.92%
 118           3           0      0.00%        99.70%            2           0       0.00%        99.84%
 117           5          -2     40.00%        99.70%            4          -2      50.00%        99.84%
 116          10          -5     50.00%        99.50%            7          -3      42.86%        99.68%
 115          23         -13     56.52%        99.00%           22         -15      68.18%        99.43%
 114          62         -39     62.90%        97.70%           68         -46      67.65%        98.22%
 113         126         -64     50.79%        93.79%          150         -82      54.57%        94.49%
 112         266        -140     52.63%        87.39%          321        -171      53.27%        87.84%
 111         511        -245     47.95%        73.37%          618        -297      48.06%        73.99%
 110         999        -488     48.85%        48.85%         1234        -616      49.92%        49.92%

* The data above, supplied by Miguel Quesada and Robert Young, does not include living cases.

28/03/2011          SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 HYPOTHESIS:
 Nature, Not Nurture Causes Aging and Senescence

 • Potential Longevity (Both Average Life Expectancy and
   Maximum Lifespan) lies in the expression of our
   genes

 • Longevity-Determining Genes (a few hundred genes
   out of 22,000+) and not our environment or life-style
   dictate how long we may be able to live

 • Our greatest system vulnerability is vascular fragility
   (we have ~60,000 miles of blood vessels)


28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 FEMALE ADVANTAGE


 Female:Male Overall Ratio ~10:1. And by age
        • 110 Years 90% are women
        • 112 Years 92% are women
        • 115 Years 95% are women

 Why is that?
        •    Women Deliver Babies (C-Sections)
        •    Men Fight for Species Survival (T, Cortisol)
        •    Estrogen? (Post Menopausal > ½ Life)
        •    “XX” (Mosaic) and not “XY” (Y = tiny)

28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES            Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 SURVIVAL
 (Logistic Function)
                            Plot produced by Donald B. Gennery, March 11, 2008
              100

             10-1

             10-2

             10-3

             10-4
  Portion    10-5
 of births
surviving    10-6
   (scaled   10-7
to match)                       Social Security, July 9, 2007
             10-8               N. J. Ruisdael, Europe, Jan. 1, 2008
             10-9               Robert Young, May 18, 2007
                                Steve Coles (RR), living Jan. 3, 2008
             10-10              0.01 exp((100 – Age)/1.4427)
             10-11              0.7 exp((100 – Age)/1.0)

             10-12
                     0     10    20     30     40     50       60   70   80   90   100   110   120   130   Age

28/03/2011               SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES      Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 THERE IS AN EXPONENTIAL RISE
 IN MORTALITY WITH AGE
                                    All Causes of Mortality
      30,000
                                      (Death Rate Per 1000)
      25,000


      20,000


      15,000


      10,000


       5,000


             0
                 0   10   20   30    40    50    60    70     80    90    100         Age

  With advancing age, mortality from all causes rises exponentially

28/03/2011           SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES                Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 INSTANTANEOUS MORTALITY RATE
 (Moore’s Law for Actuaries)
                                Plot produced by Donald B. Gennery, March 11, 2008
                   10

                                    Social Security, July 9, 2007
                                    N. J. Ruisdael, Europe, Jan. 1, 2008
                    1               Robert Young, May 18, 2007
                                    Steve Coles (RR), living Jan. 3, 2008


                   0.1
Instantaneous
 mortality rate
     (per year)
                  0.01




              0.001




             0.0001
                         0     10    20     30     40     50     60     70   80   90   100   110   120   130   Age

28/03/2011                   SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES     Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 PROGRESSIVE WORLD RECORD HOLDERS
 (Table D on www.grg.org)

             Name              Years        Days                Born                       Died


 Thomas Peters                  111          354       April 6, 1745              March 26, 1857

 Delina (Ecker) Filkins         113          214       May 4, 1815                December 4, 1928

 Martha Graham                  114         c.180      December 1844              June 25, 1959

 Shigechiyo Izumi [?]       120 (105)        237       June 29, 1865              February 21, 1986

 Jeanne Calment                 122          164       February 21, 1875          August 4, 1997




28/03/2011          SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES      Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 NUMBERS OF SUPERCENTENARIANS


                             Annual Supercentenarian Counts
           120


           100
                            Minimum
                            Maximum
            80
  Number




            60


            40


            20


             0
                 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05         Years


28/03/2011         SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES           Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 NUMBERS OF SUPERCENTENARIANS
 (smoothed)

                        Maximum Number of Living Supercentenarians
           110
                                           (Data provided by Louis Epstein)
           100

            90

            80                   Over 110 yo
            70                   Over 112 yo
  Number




            60                   Over 113 yo
                                 Over 114 yo
            50

            40

            30

            20

            10

             0
                 1965   1970    1975      1980     1985      1990      1995        2000       2005       2010     Year

                                                             Data from Afrim Alimeti and Louis Epstein, September.9, 2009

28/03/2011              SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 SRF HAS PERFORMED NINE AUTOPSIES
 (so far)

     Year              Name                 Age       R    S            City                 Dx

1    2004     Elma Corning                  112       W    F      Los Angeles            TTR
2    2005     Henry Hartman                 111       W    M      San Diego              TTR
3    2006     Marion Higgins                112       W    F      Seal Beach             TTR
4    2006     George Johnson                112       B    M      Richmond               Pneumonia
5    2007     William Seegers               106       W    M      Richmond               Pneumonia
6    2008     Daniel Guzman-Garcia          111       W    M      Cali, Colombia         TTR
7    2009     Sally Gappell                 109       W    F      Los Angeles            TTR
8    2009     Gertrude Baines               115       B    F      Los Angeles            TTR
9    2010     Milan Herzog                  101       W    M      Los Angeles            TTR


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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 INITIAL SUBJECTS FROM SAN DIEGO
 Soledad MEXIA, 111 yo and Frederica MAAS, 110 yo




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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 Marion HIGGINS, 112 yo
 Maria CAPOVILLA, 116 yo




28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 Delma KOLLAR, 111 yo
 CRESWELL, OR and Granddaughter, Syd Bergeson




28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 Leila DENMARK, M.D., 112 yo
 ATHENS, GA




28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 Mississippi (Sweetie) WINN, 113 yo
 SHRIEVEPORT, LA and Great Niece, Mary Hollins




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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 Eunice SANBORN, 114 yo
 JACKSONVILLE, TX




28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 Besse COOPER, 114 yo
 MONROE, GA and Son, Sidney Cooper




28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 Germaine DEGUELDRE, 110 yo
 BELGIUM




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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 Walter BREUNING, 114 yo
 GREAT FALL, MT



 OLDEST
 LIVING MAN
 IN THE WORLD




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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 2011 GUINNESS BOOK
 OF WORLD RECORDS




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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 Mansoor PAZARGAD, 113 yo




28/03/2011        SUPERCENTENARIANS, ALIVE AND WELL!
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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 CENTENARIAN IDENTICAL TWINS




                                         Female Centenarian Identical
                                         Twins (and two of their children)


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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 ARGUMENT:
 HERE’S WHY WE SHOULD NOT GIVE UP HOPE

                            Era                                Life Expectancy (years)
  1           100 Kya (Hunter/Gatherers)                                       18
  2           5 Kya (Ancient Egypt)                                            25
  3           1400 AD (Middle Ages)                                            30
  4           1800 (USA)                                                       37
  5           1900 (USA)                                                       49
  6           2000 (USA)                                                       78
  7          ~2044 (Singularity)                                    Escape Velocity

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Pr. L. Stephen COLES   Director, Supercentenarian Research Foundation, UCLA Molecular Biology Institute



 ARGUMENT:
 HERE’S WHY WE SHOULD NOT GIVE UP HOPE

 The best is yet to come


 If real Life Extension is still 20 years
 away, in order for us to benefit from
 it, we’ll need to be here when it does.


 And for that, we will need to have
 a “Bridge Plan” to make sure we’re
                                                              Thomas Kinkade “The Bridge of Hope”
 still around
 (see Ray Kurzweil, “The Singularity is Near”)



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IS THERE
AN UPPER LIMIT TO
HUMAN LONGEVITY?
Pr. Stephen COLES

www.grg.org
www.supercentenarian-research-foundation.org

Supercentenarian Research Foundation
UCLA Molecular Biology Institute
817 Levering Avenue, Suite 8
Los Angeles, CA 90024-2767; USA

								
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