Human Resource Impact on Land Use Management

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					Climate and Land Use Interactions
            Overview




               Chris Justice
   NASA Land Cover Land Use Program Scientist
          University of Maryland
Land Use and the CCSP (CCRI-USGCRP)
• Land Use / Land Cover Change (LULCC) is a
  new interdisciplinary element of the CCSP –
  developed as part of USGCRP planning and
  requiring a combination of physical and social
  science
• Land Use Change is recognized as a major and
  immediate form of global environmental change
• Land Use Change Research is of direct societal
  relevance
• Land Use and Cover Change occurs at a local
  scale but with national, regional and global
  significance
 LULCC and the CCSP (CCRI-USGCRP)
• A national program of basic and applied
  research is needed to better understand the
  processes and impacts of LU/LC change to
  enable projections of land use/land cover, so
  that we can determine:
  –   the impact of current and future LU/LC changes,
  –   how land use contributes to climate change,
  –   how climate change will impact land use
  –   the combined effects of climate and land use change
      (multiple stressors) on human and environmental
      systems
• To inform land management and planning,
  based on scientific understanding
            Example Global/Regional Issues
• There are a number of questions which require a better
  understanding of land use e.g.
   –   Are current land use practices sustainable?
   –   Where is land cover changing and what is the extent?
   –   How does land use change affect human health?
   –   How will the growing World population change land cover?
   –   How will land use change to feed the Worlds growing population?
   –   How are the Worlds Mega-cities changing and with what impact on
       the environment and the quality of life?
   –   How is land use change impacting regional and global climates?
   –   How will a changing climate impact land use?
   –   What is the role land use change on the global carbon cycle?
   –   How will climate and land use change combine to impact human well
       being and environmental quality?
   –   How are current land use changes impacting biodiversity?
   –   How are regional changes in land use and cover affecting water
       availability and will this fuel regional conflict?
  Bolivia

•Large parts of the Pan-
Amazon are being
deforested.
•Spatially-concentrated
"deforestation zone” in
Santa Cruz where >60% of
the Bolivian deforestation
is occurring at an
accelerating rate in areas
of tropical deciduous
forest.



(DMG UMD)
                              Agricultural Irrigation Trends
                                      Middle East
                                                                  R. Smith, Yale   2 Sept 1990
                        500
                                S. of Turkish Border A   S. of Turkish Border B
                                North of Lake Assad      East of Aleppo
                        400
Irrigated Area (km2 )




                        300


                        200                                                        5 Sept 2000


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       Tigris and Euphrates Wetlands Loss




1972                                     1990




                                  1997
    Example National (US) Land Use Issues
• There are national and local questions which require a better
  scientific understanding of land use and can benefit from the
  rigor of global change science community e.g.
   – How are land cover and land use and the associated infrastructures
     changing and how will they change in the future?
   – What are the societal and environmental impacts of these changes?
   – What is the impact of land use change on water quality, water supply
     and human health?
   – What land use/land cover changes are taking place in the coastal
     zone, what are the impacts on nutrient cycling, wetlands loss and
     replacement?
   – What land use/land cover changes are taking place at the urban / rural
     interface – what are the various impacts and is there a loss of
     agricultural land?
   – Are forested lands increasing or decreasing and what are the impacts
     of different forest and fire management practices?
   – How have past changes and will future changes in land use and
     management practices effect the carbon budget
      Land Use and Land Cover Change:
      requires interdisciplinary research
• LULCC requires truly ‘interdisciplinary research’ –
  combining physical and social science
• LULCC has a strong human dimension – understanding
  the human causes and effects of land use change requires
  social science
• LULCC regional emphasis – will necessitate development
  of approaches for regional research and interactions
• There are critical dependencies from other USGCRP
  elements on understanding changes in land use and land
  cover (baselines, historic record and projections) e.g. from
  carbon and water cycle, atmospheric composition,
  ecosystem functioning and services and human welfare
• Achieving the interdisciplinary goals of LULCC requires a
  better balance of research across the agencies (physical
  and social science, satellite and ground based studies,
  monitoring and modeling, theoretical and applied)
               Scientific Importance
• Land cover/land use change is often referred to as the
  other global change
• Global and regional distributions and rates of change are
  poorly quantified and the causes are poorly understood
• Research is highlighting the impacts of land use change
• The science of land use dynamics has emerged and is
  having a major impact on global change research
• Findings from improved monitoring of land cover dynamics
  are challenging conventional wisdom
• Dynamic spatially explicit models are needed to permit
  realistic projections - incorporating change drivers and
  processes, land use interactions, role of institutions,
  biophysical feedbacks and climate change
• The last decade of USGCRP initiated the coupling of
  climate and vegetation models – the next decade needs to
  include land use in the modeling
              Practical Importance
• Land use is key to addressing societal vulnerability and
  resilience and is integral to local and regional policy,
  resource management and development issues.
• We need to understand the positive and negative impacts
  of land use decisions.
• Better scientific understanding of land cover/land use
  change is needed for carbon trading, food supply, water
  quality, air quality and for assessing potential impacts of
  climate variability – food security, flooding
• Realistic projections of land use change are needed for
  water resource and ecosystem management and urban
  and regional planning – these projections cannot be made
  without an explicit understanding of the land use
  processes including socio-economic, demographic factors
  and environmental constraints.
              Tractability of the Research
• NRC Grand Challenges In Environmental Sciences indicates LULCC
  scientific readiness:
   – Newly available databases permit new research e.g. NASA’s global
      orthorectified Landsat coverage for 1990’s and 2000 and Moderate
      Resolution global land cover, % tree cover, fire distributions
   – Recent advances in imagery analysis and geographic information
      science
   – Advances in the analysis of spatial data
   – Increased inter and multidisciplinary interest in the science of land
      use/cover change
• LULCC has an established and well documented international science
  plan currently in the implementation stage (IGBP/IHDP LUCC)
• Some LULCC research already underway within individual federal
  agencies e.g. NSF, USDA, USGS, EPA, NASA – the research shows
  feasibility but needs strengthening to provide a balanced program
       Format for the DRAFT Strategic Plan
Documents (developed by multi-agency Working Group)
• Summary Draft Document Completed
• LULCC White Paper under development

Science Theme Outline
• 2 Overarching Questions
• Required Science Expressed as Questions
   –   State of Knowledge
   –   Illustrative Research Questions
   –   Research Needs
   –   Products and Payoffs

• Linkages

(The Draft Plan is NOT A SCIENCE PLAN and NOT AN
  IMPLEMENTATION PLAN )
       Land Use and Land Cover Change
              Research Element
• Two Primary Questions
  – What processes determine the temporal and spatial distribution of land
    cover and land use change at local, regional, and global scales and
    how can land use and land cover be projected over time scales of 10-
    50 years?

  – How will the dynamics of land use, management, and cover change
    affect global environmental changes and regional-scale environmental
    and socioeconomic conditions, including economic welfare and human
    health?
• Approach
  – Learn from the past – retrospective assessments
  – Understand the present – monitoring, mapping, measuring processes
  – Model the future – forecasting changes in land use / cover
  – Understand Interactions – understanding the impacts of combined land use
    and climate change (multiple stressors) and their feedbacks
  – Land use in relation to other global change elements – developing strong
    linkages between research elements and contributing to integrative modeling
  Land Use and Land Cover Change Element
        Science Questions: Summary
Questions
  1. Measurements and Methods: What tools or methods are needed
     to allow for better characterization of historic and current land use
     and land cover characteristics and dynamics?
  2. Processes: What are the primary drivers of land use and land
     cover change?
  3. Prediction: What advances are required to allow for the projection
     of land use and land cover patterns and characteristics 10-50 years
     into the future?
  4. Consequences/Impacts: What are the impacts of LULCC and
     how can we enable the projection of potential impacts of land cover
     and land use change over the next 10 to 50 years on the
     environment, social and economic systems, and human health?
  5. Combined Impacts: What are the combined effects of climate and
     land use and land cover change and what are the potential
     feedbacks?
     Question 1: What tools or methods are needed for
     better characterization of land use and land cover
     characteristics and dynamics?

a.     What are the current patterns and attributes of land use and land cover
       at national to global levels that affect the carbon cycle, atmospheric
       processes, and ecosystem form and function?
b.     What are the national and global rates, patterns, and characteristics of
       contemporary land use and land cover change?
c.     What are the current hot spots of rapid land use and land cover change
       at the national and global levels?
d.     What improvements need to be made to current observing systems and
       what programs need to be put in place to provide the necessary long
       term data and information to support the study of land use and land
       cover change at the global, regional and national scale?
e.     What are the methodological advances needed to improve large-area
       land use and land cover change analyses, including strategies for
       integrating ground-based data, socio-economic statistics (e.g., census
       information), and remotely sensed measurements?
% TREE COVER DERIVED FROM MODERATE
    RESOLUTION REMOTE SENSING




                        (DeFries et al. UMD)
            Impervious Surface / Urban Mapping
                   Washington DC Area




Red represents high concentrations of
impervious surfaces. Blue represents
moderate concentrations and green
represents low concentrations of
impervious surfaces.

                                        (Goetz et al UMD RESAC)
     Question 2: What are the primary drivers of
     land use and land cover change?
a.   How does the historical development and spread of land uses reveal the
     various events and trends that shaped its expansion at different points in
     the past?
b.   Why and how have land use and land management systems (e.g.,
     agriculture) spread historically?
c.   How have the driving forces of change affected the rates and patterns of
     historical and contemporary change at different (i.e., local, regional, and
     global) scales?
d.   How, and to what extent, do extreme events (e.g., natural hazards,
     public health emergencies, and war) affect land use and land cover
     change?
e.   How will environmental, institutional, political, technological,
     demographic, and economic processes determine the temporal and
     spatial distribution of land use and land cover over the next 50 years?
            A systematic & generalized view of the causative pattern of tropical deforestation
            (N = 152 cases)




Source: Geist and Lambin 2001.
Land moves to its Geographical Modifiers to Site Attributes
highest value use  Five ‘Simple’ Regional
                             Driving Forces
                             Baby Boom

       Distance Decay                            Accessibility changes

   Decentralization                                 Globalization


        Lag time                                    Legacy of past uses


    Sun Belt Movement                            Environmental movement

                     What works in one location
                      may not work in others              Policies:
Cultural Attitudes      ( Napton et al. SDSU )
                                                     Subsidies/restrictions
Question 3: What advances are required to allow for
the projection of land use and land cover 10-50 years
into the future?
a. What are the research challenges associated with developing a
   new generation of land use models resulting from multiple and
   potentially interacting agents and causes and that address
   environmental and socioeconomic impacts?

b. Given specific climate, demographic, and socioeconomic
   projections, what is the current level of skill in projecting
   characteristics of land use and land cover change 5, 10, 20, 40,
   and 50 years into the future?
Michigan Land Use Projections, 2040




  Built
  Agriculture
  Other vegetation
  Forest
  Lake
  Wetland

                           (Skole et al. MSU)
    Land Use Change in Michigan, 1980 – 2040
               (Millions of Acres)
   Class      1980     2040     Change         %
Agriculture     11.0      9.1       - 1.9      -17

Built            2.3      6.4      + 4.1 +178

Forestland    18.23      16.9       - 1.3        -8

Other           2.93      2.2       - 0.7      -24
Vegetation
Wetland         1.83     1.37       - 0.2      -10


                                    (Skole et al. MSU)
        Decision Making – Spatial Outcomes
                    SYPRIA
    Actual Cultivation          Change in land-use projected by alternative models




           Model               Heuristic        Linear Model       Genetic Program
            Test           Metric     Rank     Metric     Rank      Metric     Rank
    Kappa Index             0.173          3    0.194       2       0.223       1
    Contagion Index (+/-    0.024          3   0.0106       2       0.008       1
    )
    Fractal Index (+/-)    0.00149         2   0.0002       1      0.00306      3
    Ft (1 = perfect)        0.770          2    0.767       3       0.783       1
    MCU (0 = perfect)      0.8772          1   0.9039       2       0.9116      3
(Turner et al. Clark U)
Question 4: How can projections of potential land
cover and land use change over the next 10-50 years
be used in models of impacts on the environment,
social and economic systems, and human health?

a.   How will acute land use change stress or enhance the productivity
     of our natural resource base and the industries that depend on it,
     including agriculture and forestry?

b.   How will changes in urban and rural land use and land cover
     influence the spatial and temporal distribution of wildlife and what
     are the resulting economic, social, and ecological impacts?

c.   How will the form and use of public lands change given different
     climate change scenarios, and how will those changes affect the
     management of the vital economic and ecological resources of
     those lands?
Regional
Changes in
Nitrogen
Yield (1973-
1992) as a
function of
Land Use
Jones et al.
(2002)
     Question 5: What are the combined effects of climate
     and land use and land cover change and what are the
     potential feedbacks?
a.     How will the combined effects of land use and climate change affect
       agriculture, rangeland, forests, and aquatic ecosystems extent and
       productivity, and what are the implications for land management
       and economics?
b.     How does the combined stress of climate and land use change
       affect our ability to mitigate and manage greenhouse gases?
c.     What are the impacts of future changes in land use and land cover
       on water supply and quality, considering climate-induced changes in
       the patterns and characteristics of water resources?
d.     Using focused case studies, how can landholders, land managers,
       and decision makers formulate land use and land management
       decisions and practices at various scales in light of climate change?
  Integration Aspects – examples of required
        linkages across CCSP Elements
    • Land Use and Carbon Cycle e.g
        – land use and carbon sources and sinks
        – land use and carbon sequestration management
    • Land Use and Water Cycle e.g.
        – land use and water quality
        – land use and water access and consumption
    • Land Use and Ecosystems e.g.
        – land use and ecosystem fragmentation and biodiversity
        – land use and ecosystem disturbance
    • Land Use and Atmospheric Chemistry e.g.
        – land use emissions – gases and particulates
    • Land Use and Climate Variability
        – impact of extreme events on land use / cover
        – impact of climate change on land use/cover distribution

Suggested approach to proceed through a series of prioritized and
thematic joint element workshops to address targeted integrative
research questions
          Next Steps for LULCC
• Revision of Draft Based on Comments and
  Review – (suggestions welcomed)
• Development of a Science and
  Implementation Plan – Summer ‘03
  – Workshop for Scientists and Stakeholders
  – Review and Comment Process
• Targeted Joint Thematic Workshops with
  other Elements (roles and responsibilities)
• Coordination of LULCC for Agency FY 05
  Budgets

				
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