HOG DOC BW 2008f

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HOG DOC BW 2008f Powered By Docstoc
					                  Louis Wilson Fund - Equity Research
                             April 17, 2008             Analyst: Barkley Wedemeyer, Jr.

Harley-Davidson, Inc.                                                                          (HOG- NYSE)
    PRICE: $36.09                               52 Week Range: 34.10-66.00                       S&P 500: 1365.56

LWF Company Rationale:

The company follows the LWF philosophy by being significantly under-valued, having a low P/E ratio, and acting as a
leader in its industry. The security is currently trading at $36.09/share, which is close to the 52 week low. I recommend a
buy of Harley-Davidson, Inc. The current price is well below a margin of safety buy price of 30%, which is found at
$44.49. My four-year target sell price is $89.73.

             Business Summary: While Harley-Davidson may be known primarily for their motorcycles and other related
             products they offer such as motorcycle parts, apparel, and collectibles, they also participate in financial
             services. Harley-Davidson makes five types of heavy weight motorcycles which are Touring, Dyna™,
             Softail®, Sportster® and VRSC™ motorcycles. In addition to their heavy weight Harley-Davidson
             motorcycles, they also own Buell Motorcycle, which offers sporting and performance motorcycles.
             Concerning the insurance that comes with their bikes, a two-year warranty is provided for their customers
             who buy new motorcycles throughout the world except for Japan where there is a three-year warranty.
             Harley-Davidson motorcycles are just about available anywhere you can drive a motorcycle. Japan, Canada,
             Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,
             Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom are countries that have a great amount of retailers for Harley.
             Their 3Q 2007 states that HOG has experienced a decrease in sales in the United States by going down .2%
             compared to the third quarter for 2006. Although Harley-Davidson has had some trouble on the home front
             this past year with over production and a decrease in sales, overall sales in the foreign markets have greatly
             increased. Compared to the third quarter for 2006, HOG’s third quarter a year later rose 8.8% in the foreign
             markets. Apparel is another aspect to their business and Harley-Davidson’s 2006 annual report shows that it
             has experienced an increased share of their net profit by rising from 4.5% to 4.8% during 2004 to 2006.
             Harley-Davidson is launching a new product despite their decrease in sales. Clutch and Chrome explains that
             Harley-Davidson’s future pipeline will include a new retro motorcycle to add to its Softail class. The
             innovative technology that can be found all throughout the motorcycle from the fuel injectors to the overall
             design of the bike excites Vice President Mr. Bill Davidson. According to the 10k, their other segment,
             Harley-Davidson Financial Services, focuses on offering wholesale and retail financing, and insurance
             programs to the dealers and retail customers.
             The 3Q 2007 for HOG states that they incurred an increase in other income from the period of September
             2006, to September 2007, due to higher credit card licensing and securitization servicing income. Other
             income rose from $27.5 million to $33.8 million during the given period.
            Growth Strategy: Morningstar states that HOG’s free cash-flow margins are an average of 14% to 16% and
             that due to this large sum of money they will be able to fund growth internally. Shipments to the international
             markets have steadily increased over the past few years, but have dropped in the United States. This is due to
             a decrease in consumer spending in the United States. Value Line explains that thoughts of recession,
             extremely high gas prices, and effects from the sub prime market have squeezed the wallets of HOG’s
             customers. They go on to say that Harley’s plan for the long run is composed of a few things. One thing they
             will continue to do is to rely on the support they have received through strong brand loyalty of their
             customers. When new pipeline products filled with key innovations are teamed with confident management
             of C.E.O James Ziemer, the company will most assuredly produce positive results when better economic
             times occur in the future. Also, another plus is that Harley-Davidson is committed to creating wealth for their
             shareholders. They have offered an increase of their annual dividend raising it to $1.20 and have also
             undergone a shares repurchase program during the first nine months of 2007 to buy back 17.2 million shares
             totaling to a billion dollars. On January 25, 2008, in a press release the company revealed that they bought
             back 3.2 million shares in the fourth quarter making the total repurchase $1.15 billion. Morningstar supports
             my argument that HOG is creating wealth with increased dividends by stating that shareholders are getting
          paid to wait for the macroeconomic environment to improve. I forecasted a sales growth rate of 5% in my pro
          forma that was less than Value Lines forecast of 9%. Value Line projects for HOG’s sales to go from $5.7
          billion to $7.9 billion in the next four years. I do not believe that is obtainable and this is the reason why my
          growth rate has been reduced. A few positive aspects of Harley-Davidson will allow them to increase sales,
          but I do not believe that they will increase that much. HOG’s international exposure accompanied with its
          increasing market share in both foreign countries and the U.S. is encouraging. Also, their brand loyalty,
          management, and innovation will cause this for this growth to occur.
         Management: Harley-Davidson has a strong Chief Executive Officer and President, Mr. Ziemer, who has
          been involved in the business for about thirty-four years. He acted as CFO and Vice President for fifteen
          years prior to becoming the company’s CEO. He has run the company as CEO for just under three years.
          Harley-Davidson’s management understands that there are hard times in the economy. According to the 3Q
          2007 Harley-Davidson believes that the motorcycle market in the U.S. will be challenging during 2008.
          However, it must be noted that the shares repurchase program and development of new products prove that
          HOG’s managers are committed to creating wealth of their company. Within my industry analysis, which can
          be found on the last page of my report, Harley-Davidson’s quality of management is very strong when
          compared to its other competitors. HOG’s ROE value of 36.39 is second highest in my industry analysis and
          shows that their company has been very profitable when compared to others. HOG’s ROIC value of 24.3 is
          the second highest as well. The 10k states that the company has a stock compensation program that was
          approved by the shareholders in April 2004. The Board of Directors is allowed to grant employees equity
          rewards including nonqualified stock options and shares of nonvested stock. The plan allows the first quarter
          of the stock option to be exercised a year after the granted date and options expire 10 years after the date they
          are granted. At the end of 2006, 11.5 million shares were made available for awards.
         Forecast EPS 2008 $4.56, Forecast EPS 2009 $4.89.

Industry, Competitive, and Regulatory Factors:

      Industry and Market
       The 3Q 2007 states that the overall industry of heavyweight motorcycles have decreased 4.4% from last year.
          However, global opportunities are becoming evident with a 5.2% increase for the same period in Europe. The
          10k 2006 shows that over a five-year period, Harley Davidson had an incredible market share in the United
          States when compared to Honda, Suzuki, Yamaha, and Kawasaki. Morningstar explains that HOG can sell its
          bikes for an average 10% premium to its competitors because of extreme brand loyalty. In 2006, Harley-
          Davidson had half of the entire market while its next two competitors were not even close with a declining
          market share found at 15.1 for Honda and 12.9 for Suzuki. As stated before, Harley-Davidson had an 8.8%
          increase in sales from 3Q 2006 to 3Q 2007 in foreign markets.
       Value Line states that the recreational industry’s timeliness ranking has dropped significantly. It has gone
          from 24 to 86 out of 98 industries and the primary reason this has happened is because of macroeconomic
          pressures such as the cost of gas and the subprime market.
       Harley-Davidson’s 10k 2007 explains that 88% of buyers are male, married, and between the ages of 35 and
          54 with a medium household income of $81,700. 30% of buyers have a college education and the reason
          customers purchase these motorcycles is for recreational purposes. Transportation is not the main reason why
          men buy these motorcycles. Thirty-five Harleys are offered between $6,595 and $20,195. For Buell
          motorcycles, ten models are offered. Buell XB motorcycles are offered between the prices of $8,895 and
          $11,495. Buell motorcycles are more sporting and performance motorcycles, and they target males between
          25 and 55. Their average customer of the Buell XB is 42, married, and makes an annual income of $94,800.
       ROA values are the highest when compared to competitors being found at 16.7% and 17.7% for a five-year
          average. Harley-Davidson has the second highest 5-year dividend growth value and is the highest in every
          profit margin value. Each of these values indicates that Harley-Davidson is doing very well in its industry and
          it is just the economic times that are hurting them.
       Regulatory requirements concerning air, water, and noise pollution are all upheld within the production of
          Harley-Davidson products and the company strives towards making sure that their products are within the
          environmental regulations.

           The following risks come from the10k report.
           The lack of diversity in Harley-Davidson’s product line is one of the key risks in their company. Their
            company is not as diversified as some of its other competitors like Honda who competes in the automotive
            market and also offers ATV’s.
           Price becoming a competitive factor would become a disadvantage for Harley-Davidson. If price determined
            if a customer bought a heavyweight motorcycle, HOG would be at a disadvantage because their bikes are sold
            at an average 10% premium to their competitors.
           The marketing strategy of Harley-Davidson that is associated with the lifestyle of the average Harley rider
            could produce a loss of future customers. That is why they are working towards marketing to woman, younger
            riders, and a more ethically diverse group for long-term growth.
           Infringers of the Harley-Davidson brand could devalue the company. Brand loyalty is a key aspect of their
            company and they must make sure that their brand is protected and used properly.
           Their forecasts of future growth are dependant upon how successful Harley-Davidson is at implementing their
            new and innovative products within a market that accepts them.
            Harley-Davidson motorcycles are produced by unionized labor. Work stoppage could occur causing a poor
            relationship between HOG and its customers and an adverse effect on their overall motorcycle supply.
           The company depends on hiring skilled employees. It is important that they constantly seek out excellent
            workers and maintain their skilled workforce in order to continue to create and distribute products of superior
           Harley-Davidson is required to provide pension benefits and health care for their employees. An increase in
            healthcare and retirement benefit costs in the U.S. could cause HOG to be at a disadvantage with its foreign
           Defective products could cause the name of Harley-Davidson to become tarnished. HOG is subject to product
           HOG’s financial services must act under the laws passed within the SEC to avoid malpractices and tarnishing
            their name. Harley-Davidson relies on brand loyalty and anything that could take their extremely loyal
            customers away would do significant damage.
           Due to the fact that HOG competes in many different foreign markets, they must successfully use their
            derivative financial instruments to combat foreign currency and interest rate risks.
           Morningstar explains that it is a risk that some foreign cities ban heavyweight motorcycles. This definitely
            could harm their foreign expansion and must be something accounted for in projecting future foreign sales.

Q & A* with Travis Thatcher (Harley Davidson’s Investor Relations Analyst)

            Q. I know about 20% of the company's sales are foreign. How does the company plan to increase sales in the
            foreign markets and receive an even larger market share in the years to come?

           A. The motor company plans to do this through offering new and exciting products for those different
            countries. One product that demonstrates this plan is the XR1200. Racing heritage products are developed in
            this model. Most motorcycles used in foreign countries are used for transportation purposes. We want them
            to know that motorcycles can be fun.

           My thoughts: Mr. Thatcher explained to me that Harley-Davidson is introducing new thoughts of fun and
            travel attached with a motorcycle to foreign countries. Harley-Davidson’s website explains that this is the first
            time in HOG’s history that they will be offering a bike only to foreign markets. The XR1200 is going to be
            available during the spring of 2008 and it will be offered to Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Harley-
            Davidson is strategically positioning themselves in foreign markets by offering products that will benefit the
            user specifically based on their demographic region. They are able and will be able to offer desired products
            to foreign countries because they can meet different customer preferences by offering specific models to a
            certain region.
   Q. What happens with the extremely brand loyal customers in America when you offer new products to
    foreign markets?

   A. It is nothing new to go overseas with a product. Harley-Davidson had a great presence during WWII. Half
    of Harley-Davidson’s sales come from existing customers. When the company offers something they have to
    ask if it is cool for Harley-Davidson. Buell Motorcycles have done extremely well in international markets.
    They must continue to offer traditional products in order to keep existing customers happy. Also, at the same
    time you must remember that they are all one family on two wheels.

   My thoughts: I believe that Harley-Davidson will undoubtedly be able to create a balance of new and
    traditional products in order to appeal to new markets, and keep existing customers happy. They must be sure
    that when they offer the new products, they must be appealing in the eyes of their old customers. If it is
    different from the current customers’ perception of the company, they could loose their great amount of brand

   Q. I know that Harley-Davidson has 12% of their sales from women. What is the company doing in order to
    generate a greater market share of sales from women?

   A. Harley-Davidson had 2% of sales from women in the early 90’s and has grown to have 12%. In order to
    target more ethnic groups and women we go to where customers are. We ask what attributes they like and
    what they want to see in the new models. Retail stores throw “Garage Parties” in order to make women feel
    comfortable. Harley-Davidson also offers Rider’s Edge in order to teach women how to ride and get their
    motorcycle license. The key is that the motorcycle company has dedicated resources to outreach. They are
    present at Daytona, Sturges Motorcycle Rally, and they have demos with actual motor company employees
    who work there. You get out and get close to customers to see what they want in products. We try to get
    close to the customer in order to get direct feedback. All senior leadership goes to these events and you don’t
    see Honda going out there. At the end of the day, Honda is an automotive company that offers motorcycles.
    Harley-Davidson is a lifestyle brand. That is their biggest competitive advantage and they are specifically a
    motorcycle company.

   My thoughts: Harley-Davidson is taking the right strides towards providing products that are more desired
    by women. Their increase in sales over time to women demonstrates this. Women are important to the
    success of the company, but as we will see further, it is the younger generation that is the most important.

   Q. What is Harley-Davidson’s greatest risk?

   A. That Harley-Davidson isn’t cool anymore. We have 105 years of issues and we are pretty familiar with
    them. There is a lot of passion with everyone associated with the motor company that keeps it alive. We get
    to carry the torch for a period of time and we want to keep it for the next generation. I have never seen a place
    where the workforce is dedicated to the overall success of the company. Not to the success of themselves, but
    to the success of the company.

   My thoughts: Harley-Davidson’s culture in the workplace will allow them to continue as a strong company
    in the years to come. Having a committed workforce that is dedicated to the performance of the company will
    allow the company to incur benefits in the long run.

   Q. What about the younger generation? What will Harley-Davidson do to gain that market?

   A. You are already starting to see it. Look at /darkcustom from the Harley-Davidson website. Having the
    products that younger customers want and really understanding how to talk to them will get us this share. It’s
    a whole different game now. You have younger riders who live and die on the computer and don’t go the
    rallies yet. Traditional customers started out motorcycling, went to school, had other priorities, and then in
    their mid to upper 30’s and 40’s they had some time and income allowing them to be able to get back in
    motorcycling. Harley is an aspirational brand. We must remain competitive and build the brand loyalty going
    further by targeting the younger customers and understanding them showing products they want to get. This
    is what Dark Custom does. These young riders want something retro. We are marketing to them differently
          and there is a model from each family that targets to these younger riders. There has been a departure from
          regular marketing in Harley-Davidson. We have changed. We go to non-traditional non-riding events to
          target certain customers that might dig it but not like it. We have gone to air shows and extreme sports shows
          to promote the company.

         My thoughts: After viewing the darkcustom part of Harley-Davidson’s website, I believe that HOG is on the
          right track when targeting younger customers. Harley-Davidson has identified a potential market and their
          future will depend on how well they can market to younger people. HOG is choosing the correct methods in
          order to do so.

         After my very positive conversation with Mr. Thatcher, I believe that the company is stable and that they will
          continue to lead the industry in the future. Harley-Davidson is working extremely hard towards grabbing the
          attention of the younger market and women. I believe that this will allow them to experience success over a
          long period of time. Harely-Davidson is going to take care of the customers that they have but they are really
          working on reaching into different markets. The younger market is the most important. They will take a hold
          of this by developing new and exciting products. Harley-Davidson has been the best motorcycle company in
          the past. I feel that they will continue to be even greater in the years to come because they have put a big
          influence on grabbing the market of tomorrow.

         * I exercised extreme diligence to copy what Mr. Thatcher had to say to me. The answers are not quotations,
          but they are extremely accurate.


         Harley-Davidson has a wide economic moat by providing excellent products to a very brand loyal customer
          base. Found in the Pro Forma, Harley-Davidson’s current P/E ratio is 8.3x based on next year’s EPS. I
          expect Harley-Davidson to sell at a P/E ratio of 14.5x which is slightly lower than Value Line’s P/E of 15x.
          Harley-Davidson’s growth potential and increasing share in foreign markets should help the slowing economy
          of the U.S. Value Line predicts EPS to be $6.70 in 2011, which is a huge increase from the value for 2007
          found at $3.75. I believe that EPS will increase, but not that much. My projected EPS for 2011 is 5.63.
          Based on these forecasts I target a price of $89.73 by 2011 at a sale premium of 10%.
         HOG has demonstrated their commitment to shareholders by increasing their dividend and also participating
          in a shares repurchase program that bought back 20.4 million shares.
         I feel that the fall of Harley-Davidson’s price is not due to its management or pipeline. They just compete in
          an economic sector of the environment that has contributed to this. There have been a lot of things that have
          occurred. The sub prime market, price of a barrel of oil, and overall decrease in consumer spending are what
          hurt Harley-Davidson. Harley-Davidson offers supreme quality motorcycles and reducing their price right
          now to accommodate a decrease in the amount of spending would be like that of reducing a Rolex. Not every
          one can have one and it is a bit of status symbol. If you made it more available to lower class customers, the
          extremely brand loyal customers would probably shy away from HOG.
         Harley-Davidson is selling at $36.09, which is well below my estimated intrinsic value of $63.55, which is
          close to Morningstar’s fair value given at $60. It is below my 30% margin of safety buy price of $44.49. In
          addition, the multi-ddm model, price to cash flow, and price to sale tabs support my intrinsic value with
          estimates of the security being valued at $59.11, $63.99, and 63.57 respectively.
         Currently Harley-Davidson’s economic sector and industry does not fit that well with the economy. While the
          brand strength, innovation, and good management contribute to the success of the company, it is important
          that consumer spending increases for Harley-Davidson to become more successful.
         I feel that Value Line’s analysts are too optimistic about Harley-Davidson’s ability to make sales jump to $7.9
          billion in 2011 from projected sales of $5.7 billion in 2008. In my pro forma I have adjusted a projected sales
          growth rate from 9% to 5%. I also have decreased profit margins by 2% for the 2011 period to have a value
          of 31.5%.
         Credit Suisse projects an estimated 2008 EPS of $3.35 and Lehman Brothers projects one at $3.85. These
          values are lower than Value Lines of $3.95 and mine of $4.56. These differences must be noted, but it is
          important to remember that our P/E tab on the Pro Forma does not use the 2008E to find the intrinsic value of
          the stock. Credit Suisse and Lehman Brothers contrast Morningstar’s fair value and mine by giving intrinsic
          values of $43.00 and $45.00 respectively. Lehman Brother’s target value is found by their P/E multiple of
          11.5x and a 2009E EPS of $3.95. The reason that their target value is found at a discount to my intrinsic
          value is because they are using multiples two years prior to the ones used in my evaluation. I believe that my
          evaluation is relevant because I have decreased the sales growth significantly of VL, and my 2011 EPS is
          lower than VL as well. Although my EPS is higher than that of Lehman Brothers and Credit Suisse for the
          2008 period, I believe that my P/E model and intrinsic value is relevant because my 2011 EPS is lower than
          Value Line’s.
         Both Lehman Brothers and Credit Suisse accredit their low fair values to a low amount of visibility of Harley
          Davidson. I believe that both of these reports are too pessimistic about the visibility of HOG. Harley-
          Davidson had problems with supply and demand. However, the 10k 2007 states that they have a new
          allocation process that was put into action during the 2Q 2007. Lehman Brothers is unsure of its future
          performance. I believe that they are stressing too much on HOG’s lack of visibility when it was really the
          economy that mainly contributed to their poor performance.
         Today, Harley-Davidson’s EPS predictions have dropped due to poor announcements from the company. One
          of the headlines for BusinessWeek states, “The motorcycle maker will cut production and lay off workers as it
          deal with slowing U.S. sales.” This is very poor news from Harley. In the 1Q 2008 Conference Call for HOG
          Ziemer explains their direction and states, “We now plan to ship 23,000 to 27,000 fewer Harley-Davidson
          motorcycles in 2008 than we did in 2007… The shipment reduction will be achieved through temporary plant
          shutdowns and adjusted daily production rates resulting in a decrease of about 370 unionized employees. We
          will also be reducing the non-production workforce by about 360 jobs.”
         I would like to recommend a buy of Harley-Davidson due to the following things. They have growth
          potential, are undervalued, have strong industry ratios, are well-managed, and maintain a great market share
          percentage. It is the current economic conditions that are really affecting them. CEO Ziemer stated in the
          conference call today, “… based on our longer term outlook we continue to believe we are undervalued at our
          current share price. We have strong fundamentals and I believe continued growth opportunities once the
          economy gets back on track which brings me to all the great things going on at Harley-Davidson.” I am in
          agreement with the CEO. I believe in the potential of HOG being offer new innovative products. I feel that
          HOG is on the right track with their continual shares repurchases and investments in research and
          development. I believe HOG has growth opportunities and that it is current economic conditions that are the
          cause of HOG’s poor performance.
         The corporate culture that Mr. Thatcher described to me is promising making me believe that Harley-
          Davidson will continue on the right path. Harley-Davidson continues to offer innovative products, is going in
          the right direction to target new groups of buyers, and will do better when the economy picks up. Even though
          there are going to be some “bumps in the road,” as it has been said by many of the analysts covering HOG, I
          believe that currently Harley-Davidson is undervalued and that it would be a good long-term investment.
         I believe that in the years to come Harley-Davidson will still have the highest market share in motorcycles,
          and that they will incur a great increase in foreign sales. Harley-Davidson is a strong brand and has extreme
          brand loyalty. Their methods in targeting the younger customers are promising, and a steady and possible
          increase in sales to women will help them as well. Working towards grabbing the market of the future and
          keeping brand loyal customers will help the company beat their competitors in the years to come.

      Intrinsic Value Range:                                                   High Mid     Low
      P/E @ 8.30%               PE range 13x to 20x                          $86.04 $63.55 $57.42

Stock Performance Graph (last 5 years)

                                                                                               Splits:18-Jun-90 [2:1], 29-Jun-92
                                   [2:1], 13-Sep-94 [2:1], 29-Sep-97 [2:1], 10-Apr-00 [2:1]
               Industry Analysis Graph

                                                                                     Harley Davidson's Competitors and Other Comparable Companies                                                                                                                            LWF Holdings

Analyst: Barkley Wedemeyer      Harley-Davidson Inc   Arctic Cat Ord Shs   Coachmen Industries Inc   Fleetw ood Enterprises Inc   Fountain Pow erboat Industries Inc   Polaris Industries Inc   Thor Industries Inc   Honda Motor ADR rep 1/2 ord shs   Best BUY Co Inc   Carmax Inc   Columbia Sportsw ear Co
                                       HOG                   ACAT                  COA                          FLE                              FPB                             PII                   THO                         HMC                        BBY            KMX                COLM
Growth Rates (%) - MSN
Rev Grow th Qtr vs Qtr                  -7.1                 -30                    -33.5                       -6.9                              -7                            20.7                     4.9                         10                      17.2            6.6                 4.1
EPS Grow th YTD vs YTD                 -10.5                 -56                                                                                                                -0.2                    24.9                        38.1                      9.1            2.4                 17.4
5-Year Revenue Grow th                  7.38                 7.07                   -6.28                      -2.51                             13.25                          3.93                   18.06                        8.53                     15.2           16.14               10.68
5-Year Dividend Grow th                51.01                 3.13                                                                                                              19.42                  129.74                        39.9
Financial Conditions - M SN
Debt to Equity Ratio                   0.88                                          0.23                       3.45                             4.41                           1.16                     0                          0.94                     0.26            0.13                0.02
Interest Coverage                                                                                               -1.5                             -2.1                                                                                                                       119.8
Leverage Ratio                          2.4                  1.7                     1.7                         8.1                             8.1                             4.5                    1.5                         2.6                       4.1            1.5                 1.2
Profit M argins (%) - M SN
Gross Margin                           37.87                17.8                    2.64                       14.93                             13.18                         22.08                   12.98                       29.25                     23.98          10.39               42.75
Pre-Tax Margin                         23.57                -1.03                   -8.43                      -2.81                             -4.82                          9.57                     7.2                        8.21                      5.73           4.13               15.34
Net Profit Margin                       15.2                -0.84                   -8.06                      -3.62                             -6.85                          6.33                    4.92                        5.5                       3.65           2.52               10.65
Gross Margin: 5-Year Avg.               38.7                19.9                     9.2                        16.8                              15.6                          22.5                    13.5                        30.3                      24.2           9.4                 43.8
Pre-Tax Margin: 5-Year Avg.             25.2                 5.8                     -1.9                        -1                               -0.1                          10.5                     7.6                        7.7                        5.4           3.8                 16.9
Net Profit: 5-Year Avg.                 16.3                  4                      -2.2                       -1.5                              -0.1                          7.1                      4.9                        4.7                        3.5           2.3                 11.2
Investment Returns (%) - M SN
Return on Equity                       36.39                11.57                   -27.54                     -59.75                           -73.74                         66.17                   21.14                       15.95                     30.02          15.25               16.04
Return on Assets                        16.7                 6.9                     -17.2                       -9.7                            -13.4                          14.5                    14.4                        5.4                        9.2           10.6                13.2
Return on Invested Capital              24.3                10.9                      -25                       -14.8                            -21.3                          28.2                    20.2                        8.6                       25.3            14                 15.7
ROE: 5-Year Avg.                         32                 14.7                      -7.2                      -21.2                             -1.3                          42.4                    21.7                        15.6                      24.1           16.6                17.7
ROA: 5-Year Avg.                        17.7                 9.4                      -4.6                       -3.5                             -0.3                          16.6                     15                         4.8                        10            10.6                14.3
ROI: 5-Year Avg.                         23                 13.8                      -6.5                       -5.6                             -0.4                          32.7                    21.3                        7.8                       19.8           14.2                17.2
M anagement Efficiency - M SN
Receivable Turnover                     7.4                  18.9                    27.5                       15.1                             12.7                           24.3                   17.9                          5                       42.6           147.2                4.6
Inventory Turnover                      12                    6.7                    5.8                         8.7                             8.9                            6.2                    12.7                         6.8                       4.4            8.4                 3.2
Asset Turnover                          1.1                   2.5                    2.1                         2.7                              2                             2.3                     2.9                          1                        2.5            4.2                 1.2
Valuation Ratios - MSN
P/E Ratio: Current                     10.7                                                                                                                                     13.6                   13.4                         8.2                       16             24.6                10.4
P/E Ratio: 5-Year High                                       20.5                    35.5                                                                                       25.6                                                                                                              21
P/E Ratio: 5-Year Low                                         6.6                    12.1                                                                                       11.5                                                                                                             9.1
Price/Sales Ratio                      1.58                  0.27                    0.17                       0.14                             0.09                           0.82                   0.66                         0.51                     0.51            0.61                1.1
Price/Book Value                       4.07                                          0.69                       3.37                             1.61                           8.39                   2.83                         1.24                     5.15            3.4                 1.53
Price/Cash Flow Ratio                                        3.5                                                                                                                8.3                    12.2                         5.7                      10.2            20.1

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