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Dewatto Hardpan by mikeholy

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									    Anecdotal Mensuration
               or
The Persistence of Mensurational
             Myths
             by David Anderson
        Olympic Resource Management
                  Overview
•   Set the stage
•   Introduce the characters
•   Lights, Camera, Action
•   Grand Finale
•   Credits
             Who is ORM
• Pope and Talbot 1850
• Pope Resources 1985
• Olympic Resource Management 1997
  • Fee Timber 112,000 Acres
  • Timberland Management
  • Consulting
               Anecdote
 Those trees in Dewatto grow funny
 That a soil hardpan condition present in
  the Dewatto block produces trees with
  stagnant height growth after age forty to
  fifty that is not explained by site index.
       Anecdote Implications
• That timber yields were less than would be
  expected in Dewatto
• That I was going to have to do extra work to
  model this hardpan effect.
Where is ORM and Dewatto
Lets See Some Trees
        Cast of Characters
• Mining Timber Inventory
• Felled stem analysis
• Locate original reference for growth
  impact
               Data Mining
• 1999 Inventory Project
  • New aerial photos and stand typing
  • Cruise all stands >= 45 years of age
  • Measure site trees
                                 Total Height vs Total Age from Inventory

               140.00


               120.00


               100.00
                                                                                         Total
                                                                                         Height
                                                                                         King 70
Total Height




                80.00


                60.00


                40.00


                20.00


                 0.00
                        0   10   20    30     40      50       60   70   80   90   100
                                                   Total Age
           More Anecdotes
• Me to Head Forester: I’m going to Dewatto
  to do a felled stem analysis
• Head Forester: Well you know the hardpan
  isn’t everywhere, maybe only half of
  Dewatto
Felled Stem Analysis
 Had to be cheap, simple and accurate
 Measure trees on three plots
   Two Plots in Hardpan Zone
   One Plot in non-Hardpan Zone
 Plots coincidentally happened to be
  located in areas with active logging.
Measurements Taken
   Stump Age
   Stump Diameter
   Height to Crown Base
   Age at Crown Base
   Diameter at Crown Base
   Interwhorl Distances from crown base to
    top of stem
Felled Stem Plot Card
          Pope Resources:
                   Total Height vs Total Age for Dewatto Felled Stem Analysis

         140

                                                                                     1
         120                                                                         2
                                                                                     3
                                                                                     4
         100
                                                                                     5
                                                                                     6
          80                                                                         7
Height




                                                                                     8
                                                                                     9
          60                                                                         10
                                                                                     11
                                                                                     12
          40
                                                                                     21
                                                                                     22
          20                                                                         23
                                                                                     King Site 100

           0
               0       10     20      30      40       50     60      70        80
                                           Total Age
          Anecdote History
• 1956 paper by Willard Carmean about
  Puget Sound Trough Soils
• DNR used this paper to adjusted yields
  lower for lands in the area.
• Charles Chambers years later reviewed the
  paper and questioned some of the
  conclusions.
          Anecdote History
• DNR did a cooperative felled stem study
  with Simpson who had used earlier DNR
  results
• ORM’s CEO from September 2000 to
  December 2001 formerly was an executive
  with Simpson.
DNR Anecdote
DNR Felled Stem Study
             Grand Finale
• Data mining showed no hardpan
• Felled stem analysis showed no hardpan
• Historical version of anecdote had been
  disproved
• Dewatto Hardpan is a rural legend.
                 Credits
 Byron Hinners for assisting in felled stem
  analysis
 Charles Chambers who told me the DNR
  story.
 The hardpan anecdote for giving me a
  opportunity to measure some trees.

								
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