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Rebasing Revision of Pakistan's National Accounts

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					 National Account

Federal Bureau of Statistics




                               1
      What is National Accounts
• The National Accounts is a systematic framework
  for the presentation of statistics that provide a
  wide range of information about the economy
• National accounts or System of National Accounts
  (SNA) provide a summary of national economy
• There are a number of aggregate measures in the
  national accounts, most notably gross domestic
  product or GDP and investment.


                                                  2
      Uses of National Accounts
• The National Accounts helps economists to
  measure the level of economic development
  and the rate of economic growth, the change
  in consumption, and investment etc for the
  total economy.

• It serves as a framework for macroeconomic
  analysis. It presents an overall picture of the
  functioning of an economy.

                                                    3
      Uses of National Accounts
• GDP at constant prices indicates economic
  growth to measure the performance of the
  economy over time or in comparison with other
  countries/in comparison with previous periods.
• With data from NA, economists can forecast the
  future growth of the economy.
• impacts on the economy and its sectors of
  alternative government policies. It also serve as a
  tool for policy making and planning.
                                                        4
      Framework of Pakistan’s NA
 Regular Activities:
     GDP/GNP (factor costs) by industrial origin (by “sector”)
     Expenditure on GNP (market prices)
     Estimates of GFCF (market prices) by industrial origin for
      private & public sector and for general government

 Other Activities:
     Input-Output Tables
     Rebasing of National Accounts from 1999-2000 to 2005-06
     National Health Accounts


                                                                   5
       Sectors of the Economy
A. Agriculture Sector
•    Crops
     Major Crops
     Minor Crops
•    Livestock
•    Fishery
•    Forestry

                                6
           Sectors of the Economy
B. Industrial Sector
 Mining and Quarrying
 Manufacturing
  Large Scale
  Small Scale
  Slaughtering
 Construction
 Electricity, Gas & Water Supply

                                    7
       Sectors of the Economy
C. Services Sector
 Transport, Storage & Communication
 Wholesale & Retail Trade
 Finance & Insurance
 Ownership of Dwellings
 Public Admn. & Defence
 Social, Community & Personal Services

                                          8
                        CROPS
Major crops:   Rice, Wheat, Cotton, Sugarcane, Gram, Maize,
               etc.
Minor crops:   Pulses, Vegetables, Fruits, Oil seeds,
               Condiments, etc.

Intermediate   Seeds, Fertilizer, Pesticides, Water, Transport
Consumption:   Charges, etc.


Sources:       Provincial Agriculture & Irrigation Departments,
               IRSA, WAPDA,
               Federal Directorate of Fertilizer, Pesticides
               Association, etc.


Gross Value    Value of output including by-products (minus)
Added:         Intermediate consumption

                                                                  9
                     Output                                    Inputs



                                               •Seeds
                  125 kinds of                 •Fertilizers
                     Crops                     •Ploughing & Planking
                                               •Pesticides, weeding, Spraying etc
Quantity                          Prices       •Water
(of Production)                    (Crops)
                                               •Transportation charges
                                               •Wastages
                     Value




                             Gross Value Added of Crop Production
                                      (Output minus Input)
                   LIVESTOCK
Composition:   Cattle and their products
               Poultry and their products

Intermediate   Roughages (green and dry), Concentrates
Consumption:   (Grains, Oilcakes), Grass & Grazing, salt,
               Medicines, etc.

Sources:       Livestock Division,
               Agriculture Census Organization,
               Pakistan Poultry Association etc.


Gross Value    Value of output including by-products (minus)
Added:         Intermediate consumption

                                                            11
              Gross Output
1.       Net Sale (Sale of Animals – Purchase
         of Animals)=Sale for Slaughtering)
2.       Natural Growth
3.       Livestock Products
          Milk
          Draught Power
          Dung & Urine
          Wool & Hair
4.       Poultry Products
          Broilers (Farming)
          Layers (Farming)
          Poultry (Desi)
          Ducks, Drakes & Ducklings
          Breeding Stock (Farming)
          Eggs (Farming)
          Eggs (Desi)
         Intermediate Consumption
• Fodder
   – Green
   – Dry
   – Concentrate
• Poultry Inputs
• Other Inputs
   –   Transportation, POL, etc
   –   Medical care etc
   –   Interest (Bank charges)
   –   Repair & Maintenance
   –   Rent Paid (Building, Machinery etc)
   –   Value of chicks
                      FISHING
Composition:    Fish, Prawn, Shrimps, crabs, etc. from:
      •Marine   Ocean, Coastal and Offshore water, Fish
      •Inland
                farms, Rivers, Canals, Lakes, Ponds, and
                inundated tracts, etc.


Intermediate    Salt, Ice, Fuel & Lubricants, Medicines,
Consumption:    Chemicals, etc. and Auction Charges.


Sources:        Marine Fisheries Department, Provincial
                Fisheries Departments & Federal Bureau of
                Statistics.

Gross Value     Value of output     (minus)   Intermediate
Added:          consumption

                                                       14
             Gross Output


Production                     Price




             Value of Output
      Intermediate consumption
Marine Fishing    Inland Fishing
• Ice             • Seed
• Salt            • Feed
• Fuel            • POL /Elect
• Gas             • Water
• Others          • Other
                     FORESTRY

Composition:   Timber, Firewood, Ephedra, Grass & Grazing,
               Resin, Medicinal herbs, and other Minor
               Forest Products/Output.

Intermediate   Seeds, plantation, fertilizer, etc.
Consumption:

Sources:       Federal Inspectorate General of Forests.
               Provincial Forest Departments.


Gross Value    Value of output (minus) Intermediate
Added:         consumption

                                                          17
                       Forestry
•   Gross Output
•   Timber
•   Firewood
•   Medicinal Herbs
•   Mazari & Gum
•   Wild Mushroom
•   Honey & Wax
•   Silk Worms
•   Wild FruitsConsumption=24.99% of Timber and Firewood
     Intermediate
               MINING & QUARRYING
Composition:    Crude oil, Natural Gas, Coal including other
                minerals, e.g.     Rock Salt, Lime Stone,
                Dolomite, Gypsum, Fire clay, Phosphate,
                Marble, Surface Minerals and Allied Services.

Intermediate
                Blasting Material, Fuel and Lubricants, etc.
Consumption:

 Sources:       Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources,
                OGDC, etc. Coal and other Mineral
                Establishments, Provincial Mineral
                Departments

 Gross Value    Value of output (minus) Intermediate
 Added:         consumption
                                                               19
             LARGE-SCALE MANUFACTURING
Composition:          Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Textile, Leather,
                      Wood & Wood Products, Paper & Boards,
                      Chemicals, Pharmaceutical, Petroleum, Metal,
                      Engineering, Electrical, Automobile and other
                      Industrial products/ groups.



 Sources:             Ministry of Industries, OCAC, Provincial
                      Bureaus of Statistics, Federal Bureau of
                      Statistics.

 For calculating growth rate of value added, Quantum Index of Manufacturing
 (QIM) is computed based on production data of 100 items having 75.07%
 weight (bench-mark 1999-2000) of Large Scale Manufacturing Sector.

                                                                        20
       SMALL-SCALE MANUFACTURING

Composition:     All un-registered small and household
                 manufacturing establishments

Benchmark
Estimates of      Based on special study and SHMI
Gross Value       Surveys.
Added:


Annual Growth:    7.51 % based on Study on SSMI
                  1999-2000


                                                     21
                       SLAUGHTERING
The slaughtering industry relates to manufacturing whereas the livestock
is a part of agriculture sector.
                            The products meat (beef, mutton, chicken) and
 Composition:               other products (hides, skins, bones and blood
                            etc) constitute output of slaughtering.
Intermediate
                         Value of Animals (Buffalo, Cattle, Sheep, Goat,
consumption:             etc and Poultry (Farm and Desi). Other inputs
Benchmark                Based on special study (1999-2000).
Estimates of             Value of output (minus) Intermediate
Gross Value              consumption
Added:
                         Livestock Division,
Source:                  MINFAL
Annual                   For calculating GVA of subsequent years,
Growth:                  growth of meat is applied
                             CONSTRUCTION
Composition:             All major construction activities including
                         repairs, additions/alterations, Land
                         Improvement; Buildings; Roads, Bridges,
                         Streets; Highways; Runways; Transport &
                         Railway Tracts; Telephone, Power, Gas, Oil,
                         Utility lines; Canals; Dams; Harbour &
                         Barrages etc.


Sources:                 Federal, Provincial & Local Bodies,
                         Development Authorities, Major Public &
                         Private   Construction     Establishments,
                         Federal Bureau of Statistics.

Value added coefficients of Investment by kind of construction are multiplied to
Investment made in that activity during the year. Value additions of all activities are
summed up.
                                                                                   23
  ELECTRICITY, GAS DISTRIBUTION & WATER
                 SUPPLY
Composition:     Electricity, Gas distribution and Water supply

Intermediate     Furnace Oil, Gas, Water, etc.
Consumption:
Sources:
  Electricity:   WAPDA, KESC, KANUPP, Pak Steel, IPPs and
                 Captive Power units.
  Gas:           Sui Southern and Sui Northern Gas Cos., Mari
                 Gas etc.
  Water:         IRSA, Provincial Irrigation Departments.


Gross Value      Value of Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (plus)
Added:           Misc. Receipts (minus) Industrial cost &
                 Electricity/Gas purchases.
                                                                  24
  TRANSPORT, STORAGE & COMMUNICATION

Composition:   Railway, Air, Water, Road, Pipeline
               Transport, Storage & Communication
Sources:       Pakistan Railways, PNSC, KPT, PQA, KICT,
               QICT, PICT,CAA, PIA & other Airlines. NTRC,
               Asia Petroleum, PARCO, etc. Boats. PTCL,
               NTC,Mobile Phones,ISPs,PCOs, Post Offices,
               Courier Services, NLC, Town Committees (for
               Non-mechanized)


Gross Value    Value of output (plus) Misc. Receipts (minus)
Added:         intermediate consumption

                                                               25
               FINANCE & INSURANCE

Composition:   State Bank of Pakistan, Scheduled Banks,
               DFIs, Insurance Companies, Modaraba &
               Leasing Companies.

 Sources:      State Bank of Pakistan, Scheduled Banks,
               Development Financial Institutions, Life
               and General Insurance Cos, Modarabas &
               Leasing Companies.


 Gross Value   Value of output (plus) Misc. Receipts
 Added:        (minus) intermediate consumption
                                                       26
           WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADE

Composition:   All Agricultural, Industrial Produce and
               Imports


Sources:       Provincial Governments &
               Federal Bureau of Statistics


Value Added:   Total value of trade margins applied on
               the marketed portions of Agriculture and
               Industrial Output as well as Imports.


                                                          27
            OWNERSHIP OF DWELLINGS

Coverage:       Housing Units (rented as well as self
                occupied) and in urban and rural areas


Sources:        Housing Census & Rent Surveys


Value Added:    Gross Rentals (No. of Dwellings
                multiplied by average annual rent
                        (minus)
                Value of current repairs and
                maintenance.


                                                         28
           PUBLIC ADMN. & DEFENCE

Composition:   Federal, Provincial and District
               Governments and Cantonment Boards.


Sources:       Budget documents of Federal, Provincial,
               District Governments and Cantonment
               Boards.
Gross Value    Sum of the compensation of employees
Added:         (all Civil and Defence)  (Plus)
                     Depreciation on Govt. fixed assets


                                                          29
               COMMUNITY, SOCIAL &
                PERSONAL SERVICES

Composition:    Education, Health, Business
                (Accounting, Auditing, Advertising,
                Photography etc.), Recreation, Social,
                Personal & Domestic Services, etc.


Sources:        Ministry of Education, PMDC, PNC, PBA,
                PEC, ACA, PAA, PHA, etc.


Gross Value     Per Worker Value Added multiplied by
Added:          Number of Workers

                                                         30
                                              Gross National Product of Pakistan
                                            At constant factor cost of 1999-2000 –
                                                           Rs. Million

                                                          2008-09     2009-10     2010-11                    % age change
  S. No                          Sectors/                  Final      Revised        Provisional         2009-10/      2010-11/
                                                                                                      2008-09          2009-10
      A.   Agriculture Sector                               1195002     1201945             1216523            0.58                1.21
           1. Crops                                          539336      519132              509393            -3.75              -1.88
               i) Major Crops                                402135      392651              376822            -2.36              -4.03
              ii) Minor Crops                                137201      126481              132571            -7.81               4.81
           2. Livestock                                      620253      646783              670743            4.28                3.70
           3. Fishing                                         21319       21626               22041            1.44                1.92
           4. Forestry                                        14094       14404               14346            2.20               -0.40
      B.   Industrial Sector                                1385669     1500345             1499360            8.28               -0.07
           1. Mininig & Quarrying                            137348      140378              140971            2.21                0.42
           2. Manufacturing                                  998846     1054276             1085440            5.55                2.96
               i) Large Scale                                665285      698062              704936            4.93                0.98
              ii) Small Scale                                258173      277562              298407            7.51                7.51
              iii) Slaughering                                75388       78652               82097            4.33                4.38
           3. Construction                                   112884      144985              146169           28.44                0.82
           4. Electricity, Gas & Water Supply                136591      160706              126780           17.65              -21.11
A+B        Commodity Producing Sector                       2580671     2702290             2715883            4.71                0.50
      C.   Services Sector                                  2895045     2979241             3101523            2.91                4.10
           1. Transport, St. & Communication                 558703      574101              581388            2.76                1.27
           2. Wholesale and Retail Trade                     921375      963368             1000477            4.56                3.85
           3. Finance & insurance                            312818      277555              260172           -11.27              -6.26
           4. Ownership of Dwellings                         150629      155916              158707            3.51                1.79
           5. Public Administration & Defence                332108      340508              385506            2.53               13.21
           6. Social, Community & P. Services                619412      667793              715273            7.81                7.11
      D.   Gross Domestic Product (FC)                      5475716     5681531             5817406            3.76                2.39


                                                                                                                                    31
      Rebasing/Linking Practice
•   First base: 1959-60
•   Second:     1980-81
•   Third:      1999-2000
•   Fourth:     2005-06 (work in progress)
•   The backward and forward revision will be
    undertaken after rebasing of 2005-06.



                                           32
     Studies for Rebasing of NA
o Inland Fishing

o Marine Fishing

o Road Transport (Intercity and Intra-city)

o Public Call Offices and Pay Phone Companies

o Cable Operators and Internet Service Providers (ISPs)

o Courier Services/ Franchised Post Offices

o Shipping, Goods Forwarding and Custom Clearing Agents

o Travel Agents, Tour Operators & Franchised Booking Agents
         Studies for Rebasing of NA
o   Study on Input output Structure of Crops
o   Foreign Exchange companies

o   Stock Exchange Brokers

o   Inland Water Transport

o   Study of Miscellaneous Services

o   Study of News Papers, Weekly/Monthly Periodicals

o   Study of Cooperative Societies

o   Study of Stone Crushing Establishments

o   Study of International Freight Forwarders
      Surveys for Rebasing of NA
o Family Budget Survey
o Census of Electricity & Gas Distribution (including CNG, LPG)
o Census of Mining & Quarrying
o Census of Manufacturing Industries
o Survey of Small & Household Manufacturing Industries
o Survey of Whole Sale and Retail Trade, Hotel and Restaurants
o Construction Survey
o Rent Survey
o Survey of Water Supply & Sanitation
o Survey of Warehousing and Storage
o Survey of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs)
o Survey of Social, Recreational, Community and Personal Services
Why rebasing of National Accounts
• To capture the real and reliable estimates of Gross Domestic
  Product(GDP). Gross Fixed Capital Formation(GFCF) by
  enlarging the sphere and coverage of macro - economic data
  and estimates as per guidelines of System of National
  Accounts(SNA)
• The rebasing is a requirement of the government policy and
  decision makers, researchers and national and international
  users of Pakistan macro-economic data and it is also
  international practice.




                                                                 36
Why rebasing of National Accounts
• The present National Accounts estimates are based on 1999-
  2000 and have become outdated due to fast and rapid
  changes in economy and economic structure. National
  Accounts Committee recommended that the base should be
  changed to 2005-06 and new estimates may be prepared.
  Therefore, a project “Rebasing of National Accounts from
  1999-2000 to 2005-06” was initiated in 2006.
   –   The implementation involves the following activities:
   –   New surveys / studies ,
   –   New classifications,
   –   New methods and concepts and new price bases .




                                                               37

				
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