501 by suchenfz

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									2
                              Inground Pool Sales 2000-2009
        200
                                          170     176
        180                        165                   167
              158    159    161
        160                                                    147
        140                                                           129
        120
(000)




        100
         80
         60                                                                   54
         40
         20
          0
              2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009


                                                                                    3
                            Aboveground Pool Sales 2000-2009
        250
                                           215    219    222
                             204    209                         204
              198    199
        200                                                            180

        150                                                                   130
(000)




        100


         50


          0
              2000   2001    2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009


                                                                                     4
                               Hot Tub Sales 2000-2009

        450                               417
                                   395           399
        400                                              375
              341           352
        350
                     306                                        308
        300
(000)




                                                                       246
        250
        200                                                                   175
        150
        100
         50
          0
              2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005    2006   2007   2008   2009

                                                                                     5
                          100
                                150
                                      200
                                            250
                                                  300




                 0
                     50
      January


     February


       March


         April


         May
                                                        Spas




         June


          July
                                                        Traffic




       August


    September


      October
                                                                               -1




    November
                                                                                    0




                                                            Correlation: 1.0
                                                                               +1




    December
6
                                           50
                                          100
                                          150
                                          200
                                          250
                                          300



                                            0
                               January
                              February
                                March
                                  April
                                  May




                 100
                 150
                 200
                 250
                 300




                   0
                  50
                                  June
                                   July
                                August
      January               September
                               October
     February               November
                             December

       March

         April
                       Spas




         May

         June

          July

       August
                       Competitor




    September

      October

    November
                                                               -1




    December
                                                                    0




                                           Correlation: -1.0
                                                               +1




7
                          -1
                                                                                 100
                                                                                 200
                                                                                 300


                                                                                   0




                                  0
                                                                          January
                                                                         February
                                                                           March




    Correlation: 1.0
                          +1
                                                                             April
                                                                             May
                                                                             June




                                           100
                                                 150
                                                       200
                                                             250




                                  0
                                      50
                                                                              July
                                                                           August
                                                                          Septem…
                        January                                           October
                                                                           Novem…
                       February                                            Decem…


                         March

                          April
                                                              Spas




                           May

                          June

                           July
                                                              Combined




                        August
                                                                                     100
                                                                                     200
                                                                                     300


                                                                                       0




                                                                           January
                        Septem…                                           February
                                                                            March
                       October                                                April
                                                                              May
                        Novem…                                                June
                                                                               July
                                                                            August
                        Decem…                                             Septem…
                                                                           October
                                                                            Novem…
                                                                            Decem…
8
                                                                                                                                                                0

                                                                                                                                                       -1               +1




                                                                                                                                                        Correlation: -0.93
                                                      Annual Pools                           Unemployment Rate
               200,000                                                                                                                                           12.0
               180,000
                                                                                                                                                                 10.0




                                                                                                                                                                         Unemployment Rate (%)
               160,000
               140,000                                                                                                                                           8.0
Annual Pools




               120,000
               100,000                                                                                                                                           6.0
                80,000
                60,000                                                                                                                                           4.0
                40,000                                                                                                                                           2.0
                20,000
                     0                                                                                                                                           0.0
                                  May-05




                                                             May-06




                                                                                        May-07




                                                                                                                   May-08




                                                                                                                                              May-09
                         Jan-05


                                           Sep-05
                                                    Jan-06


                                                                      Sep-06
                                                                               Jan-07


                                                                                                 Sep-07
                                                                                                          Jan-08


                                                                                                                            Sep-08
                                                                                                                                     Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                       Sep-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                 9
                                                                                                             0

                                                                                                      -1             +1




                                                                                                      Correlation: 0.69
                                           Annual Pools          ConsExpectationsIndex

               180,000                                                                                       120

                                                                                                             100




                                                                                                                     Consumer Index
Annual Pools




               160,000
                                                                                                             80

               140,000                                                                                       60

                                                                                                             40
               120,000
                                                                                                             20

               100,000                                                                                       0
                                  Jul-05




                                                        Jul-06




                                                                           Jul-07




                                                                                             Jul-08
                         Jan-05




                                               Jan-06




                                                                  Jan-07




                                                                                    Jan-08
                                                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                          0

                                                                                                 -1              +1




                                                                                                 Correlation: 0.69
                                           Annual Pools           NewSFHouseSales

               180,000                                                                                1,600




                                                                                                                SF House Sales (000)
                                                                                                      1,400
Annual Pools




               160,000                                                                                1,200
                                                                                                      1,000
               140,000                                                                                800
                                                                                                      600
               120,000                                                                                400
                                                                                                      200
               100,000                                                                                0
                         Jan-05




                                           Jan-06




                                                             Jan-07




                                                                               Jan-08
                                  Jul-05




                                                    Jul-06




                                                                      Jul-07




                                                                                        Jul-08
                                                                                                                                       11
                                  Annual Pools                           Housing Starts                                                  Single-Family Housing Starts (000)
                                                                                                                                 2,000
               180,000                                                                            2,000
                                                                                                  1,800                          1,800




                                                                                                          Housing Starts (000)
                                                                                                  1,600                          1,600
               160,000
Annual Pools




                                                                                                  1,400
                                                                                                  1,200                          1,400
               140,000                                                                            1,000
                                                                                                                                 1,200
                                                                                                  800
                                                                                                  600                            1,000
               120,000
                                                                                                  400
                                                                                                                                  800
                                                                                                  200
               100,000                                                                            0                               600
                                   Jul-05


                                                     Jul-06


                                                                       Jul-07


                                                                                         Jul-08
                         Jan-05


                                            Jan-06


                                                              Jan-07


                                                                                Jan-08




                                                                                                                                  400

                                                                                                                                  200
                    0
                                                                                                                                    0
-1                                +1
                                                                                                                                         1980
                                                                                                                                         1982
                                                                                                                                         1984
                                                                                                                                         1986
                                                                                                                                         1988
                                                                                                                                         1990
                                                                                                                                         1992
                                                                                                                                         1994
                                                                                                                                         1996
                                                                                                                                         1998
                                                                                                                                         2000
                                                                                                                                         2002
                                                                                                                                         2004
                                                                                                                                         2006
                                                                                                                                         2008
     Correlation: 0.96
                                                                                                                                                                              12
13
                                     Retail Value ($)
9,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
           0
                2000   2001   2002    2003    2004      2005   2006   2007   2008   2009


                                                                                           14
                    5% Growth   10% Growth   12% Growth
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
 80,000
 60,000
 40,000
 20,000
     0
          2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


                                                                        15
                                                                                                                                         0

                                                                                                                                  -1             +1




                                                                                                                                  Correlation: 0.96
                                                       Annual Pools                   Housing Starts

               180,000                                                                                                                 2,000
                                                                                                                                       1,800




                                                                                                                                                 Housing Starts (000)
                                                                                                                                       1,600
               160,000
Annual Pools




                                                                                                                                       1,400
                                                                                                                                       1,200
               140,000                                                                                                                 1,000
                                                                                                                                       800
                                                                                                                                       600
               120,000
                                                                                                                                       400
                                                                                                                                       200
               100,000                                                                                                                 0
                                  May-…




                                                            May-…




                                                                                       May-…




                                                                                                                 May-…
                         Jan-05



                                          Sep-05

                                                   Jan-06



                                                                    Sep-06

                                                                             Jan-07



                                                                                               Sep-07

                                                                                                        Jan-08



                                                                                                                         Sep-08
                                                                                                                                                                        16
                                                                                                                                                                       0

                                                                                                                                                                -1                 +1




                                                                                                                                                                Correlation: 0.96
                                                                  Pools vs. Starts 2005-2009
                                                             Annual Pools                          Housing Starts
               200,000                                                                                                                                               2,000
               180,000                                                                                                                                               1,800
               160,000                                                                                                                                               1,600




                                                                                                                                                                              Housing Starts (000)
               140,000                                                                                                                                               1,400
Annual Pools




               120,000                                                                                                                                               1,200
               100,000                                                                                                                                               1,000
                80,000                                                                                                                                               800
                60,000                                                                                                                                               600
                40,000                                                                                                                                               400
                20,000                                                                                                                                               200
                     0                                                                                                                                               0
                                  May-05




                                                             May-06




                                                                                        May-07




                                                                                                                   May-08




                                                                                                                                              May-09
                                                                                                 Sep-07
                         Jan-05


                                           Sep-05
                                                    Jan-06


                                                                      Sep-06
                                                                               Jan-07




                                                                                                          Jan-08


                                                                                                                            Sep-08
                                                                                                                                     Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                       Sep-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                     17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -1                    +1

                              Pools vs. Starts 2005-2009




                                                                                                         Housing Starts (000)
                              Annual Pools                                        Housing Starts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Correlation: 0.94
               200,000                                                                         2,000
Annual Pools




               100,000                                                                         1,000
                     0                                                                         0
                                Jan-05



                                                           Apr-07
                                                                    Jan-08
                                         Oct-05




                                                                             Oct-08
                                                  Jul-06




                                                                                      Jul-09




                                                                                                                                    Pools vs. Adjusted Starts 2005-2009
                                                                                                                                              Annual Pools                            Adj. Starts
                               200,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            2,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Adjusted Housing Starts (000)
                               180,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            1,800
                               160,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            1,600
               Annual Pools




                               140,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            1,400
                               120,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            1,200
                               100,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            1,000
                                80,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            800
                                60,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            600
                                40,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            400
                                20,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            200
                                     0                                                                                                                                                                                                            0
                                                                                                                                                                             Sep-07
                                                                                                May-05
                                                                                                            Sep-05


                                                                                                                                         May-06
                                                                                                                                                  Sep-06


                                                                                                                                                                    May-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                May-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep-08


                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep-09
                                                                                Jan-05




                                                                                                                                Jan-06




                                                                                                                                                           Jan-07




                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Pools vs. Adjusted Starts 2005-2009
                              Pools vs. Starts 2005-2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Annual Pools                                                 Adj. Starts




                                                                                                           Housing Starts (000)
                              Annual Pools                                        Housing Starts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      200,000                                                                                                                              2,000
               200,000                                                                         2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      150,000                                                                                                                              1,500
Annual Pools




               100,000                                                                         1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      100,000                                                                                                                              1,000
                     0                                                                         0                                                                                                                                       50,000                                                                                                                              500
                                Jan-05



                                                           Apr-07
                                                                    Jan-08
                                         Oct-05




                                                                             Oct-08
                                                  Jul-06




                                                                                      Jul-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0                                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                       Pools vs. Adjusted Starts 2005 - 2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-05



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Apr-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         May-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Feb-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-05



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Oct-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Aug-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov-05
                                                                                                                                              Annual Pools        Adj. Starts
                               200,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Adjusted Housing Starts (000)
                               180,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1800
                               160,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1600
               Annual Pools




                               140,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1400
                               120,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1200
                               100,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1000
                                80,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   800
                                60,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   600
                                40,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   400
                                20,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   200
                                     0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0
                                                                                               May-05



                                                                                                                                           May-06



                                                                                                                                                                      May-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                 May-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                            May-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               May-10
                                                                                                                                                                               Sep-07
                                                                               Jan-05


                                                                                                        Sep-05
                                                                                                                                  Jan-06


                                                                                                                                                    Sep-06
                                                                                                                                                             Jan-07



                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-08


                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             19
                                                                Pools Start Their Dive
                                                             Annual Pools                        Adj. Starts
               178,000                                                                                                                                  1,850




                                                                                                                                                                Adjusted Housing Starts (000)
               176,000                                                                                                                                  1,800
               174,000
               172,000                                                                                                                                  1,750
Annual Pools




               170,000                                                                                                                                  1,700
               168,000
                                                                                                                                                        1,650
               166,000
               164,000                                                                                                                                  1,600
               162,000                                                                                                                                  1,550
               160,000
               158,000                                                                                                                                  1,500
               156,000                                                                                                                                  1,450
                                                                      Nov-05




                                                                                                                             Nov-06
                                                                                                  May-06
                                           May-05




                                                                                                                                               Mar-07
                         Jan-05

                                  Mar-05




                                                             Sep-05



                                                                               Jan-06

                                                                                        Mar-06




                                                                                                                    Sep-06



                                                                                                                                      Jan-07
                                                    Jul-05




                                                                                                           Jul-06



                                                                                                                                                                                                20
                                                                                                                                                          Pools Start Their Dive
                                                                                                                                                              Annual Pools                                Adj. Starts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1,850
                                                                                                                            172,000                                                                                                                         1,750
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1,650
                                                                                                                            164,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1,550
                                                                                                                            156,000                                                                                                                         1,450




                                                                                                                                                          Jul-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-06
                                                                                                                                      Jan-05

                                                                                                                                               Apr-05




                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-06

                                                                                                                                                                                       Apr-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-07
                                                                                                                                                                   Oct-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct-06
                                                               Pools Start Their Dive (Trend)
                   Annual Pools                     Adj. Starts                    Linear (Annual Pools)                              Linear (Adj. Starts)
               178,000                                                                                                                                                                          1,850




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Adjusted Housing Starts (000)
               176,000                                                                                                                                                                          1,800
               174,000
               172,000                                                                                                                                                                          1,750
Annual Pools




               170,000                                                                                                                                                                          1,700
               168,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                1,650
               166,000
               164,000                                                                                                                                                                          1,600
               162,000                                                                                                                                                                          1,550
               160,000
               158,000                                                                                                                                                                          1,500
               156,000                                                                                                                                                                          1,450
                                                                          Nov-05




                                                                                                                                  Nov-06
                                                                                                      May-06
                                           May-05




                                                                                                                                                                            Mar-07
                         Jan-05

                                  Mar-05




                                                                 Sep-05



                                                                                    Jan-06

                                                                                             Mar-06




                                                                                                                        Sep-06



                                                                                                                                                        Jan-07
                                                      Jul-05




                                                                                                               Jul-06



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              21
                                     Pools vs. Discretionary Income
                                      Pools     Discretionary Income
               180,000                                                       40,000
               160,000                                                       35,000




                                                                                      Discretionary Income ($)
               140,000                                                       30,000
               120,000
Annual Pools




                                                                             25,000
               100,000
                                                                             20,000
                80,000
                                                                             15,000
                60,000
                40,000                                                       10,000

                20,000                                                       5,000
                    0                                                        0
                         2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


                                                                                                                 22
                                Pools vs. Discretionary Income (% Change)
                                            Pools     % Change
               200,000                                                       6
               180,000
               160,000                                                       5
               140,000                                                       4
Annual Pools




                                                                                 % Change
               120,000
               100,000                                                       3
                80,000
                60,000                                                       2
                40,000                                                       1
                20,000
                     0                                                       0
                         2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


                                                                                            23
100M U.S. Households
-36M LI/MFR
 64M Qualified
-18M Current Owners
 46M Potential Owners
700K /Year
   60 Year Demand


                        24
       Not at all likely   2    3      4   Very likely   Mean                 Not at all likely   2    3      4   Very likely   Mean


100%                                                      5            100%                                                      5
                               5.4%                                                                   4.5%
                               3.6%                                                                   4.5%
                               6.6%                       4.5                                         8.3%                       4.5
80%                            7.2%                                    80%
                                                          4                                           9.8%                       4

                                                          3.5                                                                    3.5
60%                                                                    60%
                                                                Mean




                                                                                                                                       Mean
                                                          3                                                                      3

40%                            77.2%                                   40%
                                                          2.5                                         72.2%                      2.5

                                                          2                                                                      2
20%                                                                    20%
                                                          1.5                                          1.6                       1.5
                                1.5

 0%                                                       1             0%                                                       1



                                                                                                                                          25
       How likely to shop for a new IG pool in the next 2 years
                                                                  Very likely
100%                 4.5%                          5
                     4.5%
                     8.3%                          4.5            4
80%                  9.8%                          4
                                                                  3
                                                   3.5




                                                         Mean
60%
                     72.2%                                        2
                                                   3
40%                                                2.5            Not at all likely

                                                   2
20%                                                               Don't know
                      1.6                          1.5
                                                                  Mean
 0%                                                1

                                                                                      26
5.4% X 90%
+3.6% X 60%
7.0% Will shop for a new pool


4.5% X 90%
+4.5% X 60%
6.8% Will shop for a new hot tub




                                   27
                                       Pools vs. Will Shop
                                        Pools     Will shop
               200,000                                                      8
               180,000                                                      7
               160,000
                                                                            6
               140,000




                                                                                Will Shop (%)
Annual Pools




               120,000                                                      5
               100,000                                                      4
                80,000                                                      3
                60,000
                                                                            2
                40,000
                20,000                                                      1
                     0                                                      0
                         2004   2005       2006        2007   2008   2009


                                                                                                28
                                                                                     Pools vs. Will Shop

                                                                                       Pools        Will shop

                                                                   200,000                                                                       8
                                                                   150,000                                                                       6
                                                                   100,000                                                                       4
                                                                    50,000                                                                       2
                                                                         0                                                                       0
                                                                             2004   2005    2006   2007    2008       2009


                                Pools vs. Will Shop (adjusted)
                                        Pools    Will shop
               200,000                                                                                            8
               180,000                                                                                            7
               160,000




                                                                                                                        Will Shop (% Adjusted)
                                                                                                                  6
               140,000
Annual Pools




               120,000                                                                                            5
               100,000                                                                                            4
                80,000                                                                                            3
                60,000
                                                                                                                  2
                40,000
                20,000                                                                                            1
                     0                                                                                            0
                         2005    2006           2007             2008                      2009


                                                                                                                                                     29
                                     Hot Tubs vs. Will Shop
                                      Hot tubs      Will shop
                 450                                                          8
                 400                                                          7
                 350                                                          6
Hot Tubs (000)




                 300




                                                                                  Will Shop (%)
                                                                              5
                 250
                                                                              4
                 200
                                                                              3
                 150
                 100                                                          2

                  50                                                          1
                   0                                                          0
                       2004   2005      2006         2007       2008   2009


                                                                                                  30
                                                                                       Hot Tubs vs. Will Shop

                                                                                         Hot tubs           Will shop

                                                                          600                                                                    10
                                                                          400
                                                                                                                                                 5
                                                                          200
                                                                            0                                                                    0
                                                                                2004   2005   2006   2007   2008    2009




                              Hot Tubs vs. Will Shop (adjusted)
                                     Hot tubs          Will shop
                 450                                                                                            8
                 400                                                                                            7




                                                                                                                        Will Shop (% Adjusted)
                 350                                                                                            6
Hot Tubs (000)




                 300
                                                                                                                5
                 250
                                                                                                                4
                 200
                                                                                                                3
                 150
                 100                                                                                            2

                  50                                                                                            1
                   0                                                                                            0
                       2005   2006              2007               2008                2009


                                                                                                                                                      31
100M U.S. households
 -36M LI/MFR
 64M Qualified
 -18M Current owners
 46M Potential owners
X 7.0% Will shop (2004)
 3.2M Will shop




                          32
                            100M U.S. households
                             -36M LI/MFR
                              64M Qualified
                             -18M Current owners
                              46M Potential owners
                           X 5.2% Will shop (2009)
                             2.4M Will shop

Of those, how many will actually visit a store…?

Of those, how many will actually make a purchase…?

                                                     33
34

								
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