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									   PAA                                                                                               United Utilities Ltd- Provision of Sustainable Catchment

                                                                                                                  Management Monitoring (SCaMP) Project
                                                                                                                                    Goyt Valley Estate - DRAFT

1.               INTRODUCTION

                 Background
1.1              United Utilities Ltd (UU) commissioned Penny Anderson Associates Ltd (PAA) to plan,
                 execute and report on a five year monitoring scheme required to assess the effectiveness of
                 land management changes and habitat restoration on objectives contained within
                 Sustainable Catchment Management Plans. This project is known as the Sustainable
                 Catchment Management Monitoring Project (SCaMP).

1.2              The initial tender document prepared by PAA (2005) set out in some detail the methods of
                 data collection and analysis proposed for each of the Estates included in the SCaMP
                 proposals. However, at the time of tender submission the land management agreements
                 (Farm Plans) with the tenant farmers had not been finalised. The meant that the final
                 selection of monitoring areas on individual Estates could not be undertaken, as the
                 monitoring needed to be targeted to where management was being altered.

1.3              The finalised Farm Plan for the Goyt Valley Estate was received in February 2006 and
                 following this PAA has now selected their final monitoring areas based on the changes to
                 land management that will be implemented on the Estate.

1.4              This report presents our proposals for monitoring the Goyt Valley for discussion and
                 agreement with United Utilities and Stakeholders. The monitoring will consist of two main
                 elements. Firstly the vegetation monitoring targeted in particular at identifying the effects
                 of the management on moving different vegetation types toward favourable condition in
                 terms of JNCC’s Common Standards Monitoring, and also tied in with Biodiversity Action
                 Plan (BAP) targets set by UU through its own BAP. In addition, hydrological and
                 hydrochemical monitoring will be undertaken to evaluate the management in terms of
                 water quality and sustainable catchment management.

                 Summary of Habitats on the Goyt Valley Estate
1.5              The SCaMP work includes a range of BAP habitats that occur on UU land. However, not
                 all habitats occur within all Estates. In the Goyt Valley the following habitats are being
                 monitored in relation to management changes:

                           Blanket bog.
                           Dwarf shrub heath.
                           Hay meadow.
                           Upland oak wood.

1.6              The monitoring proposed for each habitat is tailored to both the habitat and the
                 management being undertaken, and presented in Section 2.

                 Summary of Land Management Changes on the Goyt Valley
                 Estate
1.7              The management changes proposed for the Goyt Valley Estate for blanket bog and rush
                 pasture are funded through a South Peak Environmental Sensitive Area (ESA) agreement
                 with the tenant farmer. The types of management implemented therefore fall within the
                 options available under this scheme.
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                                                                                                                                                             060181
                                                                                                                                                       February 2006
   PAA                                                                                               United Utilities Ltd- Provision of Sustainable Catchment

                                                                                                                  Management Monitoring (SCaMP) Project
                                                                                                                                    Goyt Valley Estate - DRAFT


1.8              For the upland oak woodland sites funding for management will be secured through an
                 English Woodland Grant Scheme.

                 Blanket Bog

1.9              Blanket bog forms a significant area of habitat within the Goyt Valley Estate. The Farm
                 Plan includes approximately 600ha of blanket bog for enhancement through the Tier 2e of
                 the ESA. This includes reduced sheep grazing levels (no grater than 0.1 livestock units per
                 hectare), away-wintering (01 October to 28 February) and no supplementary feeding.

1.10             This parcel of land is part of the Leek Moors and Goyt Valley Site of Special Scientific
                 Interest (SSSI). The English Nature SSSI units included in this management regime
                 comprise Units 12 (southern part), Units 13 – 18, Unit 23 and Unit 24. The majority of
                 these units are identified as being in unfavourable condition in relation to targets set for
                 blanket bog with the exception of Units 15 and 23 that fail in relation to targets for upland
                 dwarf shrub heath (JNCC 2004). Unit 16 is excluded from moorland restoration as it is
                 designated for its geological, rather than biological, interest.

1.11             A further 130ha and blanket bog (including a small area identified as wet heath) in the
                 south of the Estate is included in Tier 2e of the ESA with the Enhanced Moorland
                 supplement. This includes removal of all stock from this area for at least five years. This
                 comprises Units 2 to 9, all of which are identified as being in unfavourable condition in
                 relation to targets set for blanket bog, except for Unit 8 which fails in relation to targets for
                 upland wet heath (JNCC 2004).

                 Dwarf Shrub Heath

1.12             Dwarf shrub heath forms a relatively small area of habitat within the Goyt Valley Estate.
                 The Farm Plan includes approximately 252ha of heath for enhancement through the Tier 2e
                 of the ESA with the Enhanced Moorland supplement. This includes removal of all stock
                 from this area for at least five years.

1.13             The majority of this parcel of land is also part of the Leek Moors and Goyt Valley SSSI,
                 although additional land (approximately 95ha) outside of the SSSI boundary is also
                 included in the management option. The English Nature SSSI units included in this
                 management regime comprise Units 19 and Unit 20 in the north of the main moorland
                 block. Both units are identified as being in unfavourable condition in relation to targets set
                 for upland dwarf shrub heath (JNCC 2004).

                 Hay Meadow

1.14             Hay meadow restoration has been identified for two sites within the Farm Plan for the Goyt
                 Valley. The sites are being managed under ESA Tier 2C Regeneration to Extensive
                 Meadow. This management option prescribes limited farm yard manure application, cutting
                 for hay after 07 August in at least two out of every five years, after-math grazing and
                 removal of stock between 01 November and 31 March. Both sites are included in the
                 monitoring programme.

                 Upland Oak Woodland

1.15             Woodland sites have been identified for management within the Farm Plan however, the
                 two sites selected for monitoring are just to the north of the tenancy boundary but still
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                                                                                                                                                       February 2006
   PAA                                                                                               United Utilities Ltd- Provision of Sustainable Catchment

                                                                                                                  Management Monitoring (SCaMP) Project
                                                                                                                                    Goyt Valley Estate - DRAFT

                 within UU ownership. These two sites were included in the original woodland surveys and
                 restoration proposals undertaken by PAA (2004).

1.16             It is understood that the management recommended by PAA in this earlier assessment will
                 be undertaken in full and monitoring reflects this.




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                                                                                                                                                             060181
                                                                                                                                                       February 2006
   PAA                                                                                               United Utilities Ltd- Provision of Sustainable Catchment

                                                                                                                  Management Monitoring (SCaMP) Project
                                                                                                                                    Goyt Valley Estate - DRAFT

2.               MONITORING PROPOSALS

                 Introduction
2.1              The locations of the proposed monitoring areas for each of the habitats being monitored
                 within the Goyt Valley Estate are presented in Figure 1. The detail of the monitoring to be
                 undertaken on each area is discussed below.

2.2              For the blanket bog habitat the vegetation monitoring is closely linked to the hydrological
                 and hydrochemical monitoring for the Estate, reflecting both the sensitivity of this habitat
                 to changes in hydrological functioning and the links with hydrochemistry of water entering
                 the reservoir. For dwarf shrub heath there is some linkage between these three aspects of
                 the monitoring, but the association is less close.

2.3              The woodland and hay meadow restoration areas are monitored for vegetation change only
                 with no specific link to hydrochemistry or hydrology.

                 Vegetation Monitoring
                 Blanket Bog

2.4              Monitoring will be undertaken within four blanket bog areas, two in Unit 17 (B1 and B2),
                 one in Unit 14 (B3) and one in Unit 13 (B4). The changes in management for Areas B1, B2
                 and B3 are the reduction in sheep grazing levels, away-wintering, removal of heather
                 burning and blocking of grips.

2.5              As indicated in Figure 1, the monitoring on B1, B2 and B3 will be directly related to the
                 hydrological monitoring of water levels in the peat as the vegetation monitoring area will
                 be around the fields of dipwells that are installed across grips. Areas B1 and B2 will have
                 the grips blocked in 2006. It is understood that Area B3 will have the grips blocked at the
                 end of the project, allowing an unblocked control to be monitored for much of the five year
                 period.

2.6              Area B4 is situated in an area that has no grips and the change in management is therefore a
                 reduction in sheep grazing levels, away-wintering and removal of heather burning. This
                 will provide a monitoring area on blanket bog where a slightly different management
                 regime is undertaken. The changes in grazing management and removal of burning was
                 implemented in winter 2005/06.

2.7              All four areas will have water samples taken from streams being fed from the sub-
                 catchment of the vegetation area, allowing hydrochemical analysis of run-off from the
                 areas. In addition, general hydrological and hydrochemical data collected for the catchment
                 will also be able to be integrated into the assessment.

2.8              Data collection will follow that presented in the original tender submission and is presented
                 in detail in Appendix I. In brief, this will involve the following:

                       Each sample area (and any adjacent areas as necessary) would be assessed through a
                        walkover survey, and notes made to describe the general character of the site,
                        vegetation type, key plant species present, site features, erosion, grips, grazing, etc.


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                                                                                                                                                             060181
                                                                                                                                                       February 2006
   PAA                                                                                               United Utilities Ltd- Provision of Sustainable Catchment

                                                                                                                  Management Monitoring (SCaMP) Project
                                                                                                                                    Goyt Valley Estate - DRAFT

                       Photographs of the general area would be taken, both close-ups of features and over-
                        views, as necessary, to illustrate the area. The location and direction of photographs
                        will be marked on maps (using a compass and hand held GPS).

                       Within each selected sample area 30 randomly located quadrats would form the basis
                        of the quantitative monitoring programme. The quadrats would be 2mx2m (4m2) in
                        size. All randomly located quadrats would be mapped to a 6 figure grid reference using
                        a hand-held GPS and quadrats plotted onto a GIS-based map. Data collected would be
                        as presented in Appendix I of this proposal.

                       Fixed point photography would be set up at several points within each monitoring area
                        to record visually the different management techniques being applied to the area (e.g.
                        grip blocking). Close-up photographs of the condition of the vegetation would be taken
                        where appropriate. At each fixed point, the location of the photograph would be
                        recorded using a hand-held GPS, and the direction recorded using a compass bearing.
                        Photographs would be repeated under each monitoring session (Years 1, 3 and 5).

                       Monitoring would be undertaken during May to September (inclusive), and every effort
                        would be made to ensure each estate is monitored at a similar time during the three
                        monitoring episodes (Years 1, 3 and 5).

                 Dwarf Shrub Heath

2.9              Monitoring will be undertaken in two dwarf shrub heath areas identified as H1 and H2 on
                 Figure 1. Area H1 is situated in Unit 20 and Area H2 is within Unit 19. These units will
                 have all stock excluded from them for at least five years stating in winter 2005/06.

2.10             The vegetation monitoring will assess the effects of the removal of stock on degraded
                 dwarf shrub heath areas, in particular the effect of stock removal on the restoration of dwarf
                 shrubs on the areas. Area H1 has remnant dwarf shrubs within the acid grassland, while
                 area H2 has far fewer dwarf shrub species remaining and is predominantly acid grassland
                 dominated by mat-grass. The success of this management change on the restoration of two
                 different types of degraded dwarf shrub heath will be the focus of the monitoring.

2.11             There will be integration of the vegetation monitoring with the hydrological and
                 hydrochemical monitoring being undertaken, with water samples being collected from
                 streams fed by the sub-catchment of both sites. No dipwell monitoring of water levels will
                 be undertaken, however, general hydrological and hydrochemical data collected for the
                 catchment will also be able to be integrated into the assessment.

2.12             Data collection will follow that presented in the original tender submission and is presented
                 in details in Appendix I. In brief, this will involve the following:

                       Each sample area (and any adjacent areas as necessary) would be assessed through a
                        walkover survey, and notes made to describe the general character of the site,
                        vegetation type, key plant species present, site features, erosion, grips, grazing, etc.

                       Photographs of the general area would be taken, both close-ups of features and over-
                        views, as necessary, to illustrate the area. The location and direction of photographs
                        will be marked on maps (using a compass and hand held GPS).



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                                                                                                                                                             060181
                                                                                                                                                       February 2006
   PAA                                                                                               United Utilities Ltd- Provision of Sustainable Catchment

                                                                                                                  Management Monitoring (SCaMP) Project
                                                                                                                                    Goyt Valley Estate - DRAFT

                       Within each selected sample area 30 randomly located quadrats would form the basis
                        of the quantitative monitoring programme. The quadrats would be 2mx2m (4m2) in
                        size. All randomly located quadrats would be mapped to a 6 figure grid reference using
                        a hand-held GPS and quadrats plotted onto a GIS-based map. Data collected would be
                        as presented in Appendix I of this proposal.

                       Fixed point photography would be set up at several points within each monitoring area
                        to record visually the different management techniques being applied to the area (e.g.
                        grip blocking). Close-up photographs of the condition of the vegetation would be taken
                        where appropriate. At each fixed point, the location of the photograph would be
                        recorded using a hand-held GPS, and the direction recorded using a compass bearing.
                        Photographs would be repeated under each monitoring session (Years 1, 3 and 5).

                       Monitoring would be undertaken during May to September (inclusive), and every effort
                        would be made to ensure each estate is monitored at a similar time during the three
                        monitoring episodes (Years 1, 3 and 5).

                 Hay Meadows

2.13             Two hay meadow sites have been identified for restoration (Area H1 and Area H2
                 illustrated on Figure 1) and are included in the Farm Plan as being managed under ESA
                 Tier 2c Regeneration to Extensive Meadow. This management option prescribes limited
                 farm yard manure application, cutting for hay after 07 August in at least two out of every
                 five years, after-math grazing and removal of stock between 01 November and 31 March.

2.14             The monitoring would first involve visiting the two hay meadow sites to undertake and
                 initial assessment of NVC types on site, as these areas have not been previously surveyed
                 by PAA staff. The surveyor would identify the core areas within the fields for detailed
                 monitoring. This initial assessment would also be used to describe each area more widely
                 and identify potential restoration proposals. This information would be fed back to UU to
                 be incorporated into their management proposals where possible. The monitoring would
                 focus on vegetation only with no directly associated information collected on hydrology or
                 water quality.

2.15             The initial assessments would be undertaken in mid May to Mid June. Following on from
                 this assessment, detailed monitoring would be undertaken in the core areas selected.
                 Detailed information on data to be collected is provided in Appendix I, and is summarised
                 below:

                       Hay-meadow sites would be monitored just prior to cutting (June – mid July).
                        Monitoring of sites in subsequent years would be carried out within a window of time
                        two weeks either side of the initial survey date, and would be completed prior to
                        cutting. Liaison with the farming tenant would be needed to ensure this.

                       Surveyors would begin by walking through the centre and around the periphery of each
                        meadow in order to become familiar with the survey area.

                       In more extensive sites, where a number of different plant communities are present
                        within 1 field, the site would be subdivided into floristically homogeneous stands. A
                        random stratified sampling approach would be used to incorporate site variability,
                        whilst still allowing effective comparison of year on year data. Wherever possible,
                        meadows would be identifiable to an NVC community, bearing in mind that these are
                        likely to be one of the semi-improved or improved grassland types prior to restoration,
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                                                                                                                                                             060181
                                                                                                                                                       February 2006
   PAA                                                                                               United Utilities Ltd- Provision of Sustainable Catchment

                                                                                                                  Management Monitoring (SCaMP) Project
                                                                                                                                    Goyt Valley Estate - DRAFT

                        but hopefully would be developing towards targets such as MG3-5, MG8 (Rodwell,
                        1992) or the local variants of these after restoration. Monitoring areas would be similar
                        in physical and species composition whilst still being representative of the meadow as a
                        whole.

                       Uncut/ungrazed field margins, shaded areas, seasonally inundated areas, and heavily
                        trampled gateways and footpaths would be avoided.

                       Baseline monitoring will be completed in Year 1, and follow up monitoring in Years 2,
                        3 and 4.

                 Upland Oak Woodland

2.16             The two upland oak woodland sites chosen for monitoring are presented in Figure 1 as Area
                 W1 and Area W2. As indicated previously, only vegetation monitoring would be
                 undertaken in detail on these sites, with no direct measures on hydrology or
                 hydrochemistry.

2.17             Data collection would follow the methodology provided in Appendix I, and summarised
                 below, which is adapted from the Common Standards Monitoring guidance for Woodland
                 Habitats produced by JNCC (2004b). Initial monitoring of woodland areas would take
                 place in mid May to mid July 2006. Repeat monitoring will be carried out in 2008 and 2010

                       Each woodland would be assessed through an initial walkover survey. Notes would be
                        made on the level of tree seedling regeneration, whether the site is stock-proof or deer
                        fenced, existing management constraints, the amount of public use and any signs of
                        recent damage.

                       In field confirmation and recording of the types and extent of existing woodland
                        management would be carried out by surveyors during the monitoring periods.

                       A note would be made of the presence of all nationally rare (Appendix 2 of the
                        Common Standards Monitoring Guidance for Vascular Species 2004c), or locally
                        distributed vascular and non-vascular plant species (as listed in the Local Biodiversity
                        Action Plans).

                       A qualitative assessment of the intensity of browsing (heavy, moderate, light) would be
                        made on regenerating tree seedlings less than 2m high for each woodland using the
                        assessment methodology as detailed in Section 6.4 of JNCC (2004b) CSM guidance on
                        woodland habitat, as well as a note made of the animal(s) involved as far as possible.

                       The presence and location of all invasive species (rhododendron, Japanese knotweed,
                        Indian balsam etc.), would be recorded on site plans as well as their distribution and
                        extent within the woodland area.

                       Within each woodland site, 5 canopy quadrats and 15 ground flora quadrats would
                        form the basis of the quantitative monitoring programme. Canopy quadrats would be
                        50mx50m (2,500m2) in size and ground flora quadrats 5mx5m. All quadrats would be
                        mapped to a 6 figure grid reference using a hand held GPS and plotted onto a GIS-
                        based map.



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                                                                                                                                                             060181
                                                                                                                                                       February 2006
   PAA                                                                                               United Utilities Ltd- Provision of Sustainable Catchment

                                                                                                                  Management Monitoring (SCaMP) Project
                                                                                                                                    Goyt Valley Estate - DRAFT

                       Woodland edges and transitional community types would be avoided, with quadrats
                        being located in areas that are representative of the woodland as a whole.

                       Photographs would be taken of the exterior of the woodland, as well as close-ups of
                        representative canopy and ground flora quadrats. All photographs would be taken at
                        fixed points, the location of the photograph would be recorded using a hand-held GPS,
                        and the direction recorded using a compass bearing. Photographs would be repeated
                        during 2008 and 2010.

                 Hydrology and Water Quality Monitoring
2.18             A review of available water quality and rainfall data has been completed, and used to
                 inform the strategic catchment-scale monitoring. The existing rain gauge at the Cat and
                 Fiddle will be used to provide rainfall data for hydrological analyses of flow and discharge.
                 This is located on Figure 1. The rain gauge measures rainfall every 15 minutes. Other rain
                 gauges to the north and the east of the catchment identified in the tender submission were
                 found to be no longer active.

2.19             Discharge of the main stream feeding the Goyt Reservoir will be assessed using a stilling
                 well and data logger located along the valley bottom close to the inflow of the reservoir
                 (Figure 1). This will provide daily measurements of discharge from the wider catchment,
                 and will also be used to monitor the change in discharge rates during several high rainfall
                 events on the site, measuring every 30 minutes.

2.20             Throughout the Goyt Valley locations have been identified for hydrology and water quality
                 monitoring on a weekly basis. These sample locations are presented in Figure 1 and
                 identified as ‘water test sites’. At these sample points water samples will be collected and
                 analysed for colour (Hazen), turbidity, suspended solids, arsenic and nitrates.
                 Measurements of flow will also be recorded at these ‘water test’ sites at the same time
                 water samples area taken, using a hand-held flow meter.

2.21             Initial information indicates that other metals (iron, manganese and aluminium) are not a
                 particular issue on the Goyt Estate and it is anticipated that this will be confirmed by a
                 ‘sweep survey’ in Year 2. This will inform the need for any more detailed metal analyses.
                 Coliform analysis is not included in the monitoring programme as data gathered to date
                 indicates they are not considered to be a critical issue on the Estate.

2.22             Three of these ‘water test’ sites are located close to the reservoir and therefore monitor
                 catchment scale changes in water quality and hydrology. However, the remaining eight
                 sites are allocated to specific sub-catchments, and within some of these sub-catchments
                 vegetation monitoring is also being carried out. In this way the two areas of monitoring can
                 be evaluated together.

2.23             Within blanket bog areas where grip blocking is being undertaken as a specific restoration
                 activity, a series of dipwells are installed to monitor the effects of grip blocking on the
                 water level in the peat. The dipwells are installed in transects across the grips to monitor the
                 change in water table perpendicular to the direction of the grip. These dipwells are being
                 monitored on a monthly basis, and automated loggers (‘divers’) will be used on some areas
                 to monitor the response of the water table to high rainfall events (this will be tied in with
                 event monitoring discharge in the stream via the stilling well and data logger).

2.24             As indicated in the proposals for vegetation monitoring of the blanket bog areas, dipwells
                 are located at two sites on Unit 17, where grips are being blocked in 2006, and one area on
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                                                                                                                                                             060181
                                                                                                                                                       February 2006
   PAA                                                                                               United Utilities Ltd- Provision of Sustainable Catchment

                                                                                                                  Management Monitoring (SCaMP) Project
                                                                                                                                    Goyt Valley Estate - DRAFT

                 Unit 14 where it is anticipated that the grips will not be blocked until the end of the five
                 year monitoring period allowing an area of un blocked grips to be monitored as a control.

                 Data Collation and Analysis
                 Site Descriptions

2.25             All sample areas/sites would be comprehensively described in terms of the species
                 composition, vegetation vigour, vegetation structure, etc. along with a description of
                 particular issues associated with each habitat and/or site (e.g. fire damage, erosion,
                 drainage, lack of species diversity, agricultural activities, including grazing impacts). For
                 example, woodlands would be thoroughly described in terms of the species composition,
                 and evaluated against attributes and targets (Extent; Structure and natural processes;
                 Regeneration potential; Tree and shrub composition; and Indicators of local
                 distinctiveness), as outlined in CMS Guidance for Woodland Habitats. The presence of and
                 change in the frequency of indicator species (positive and negative) would be evaluated
                 against attributes and targets for hay meadows as set out in the appropriate CMS guidance
                 documents. Changes in the frequency of indicator species will be used to evaluate the
                 success of management practices.

2.26             For dwarf shrub heath and blanket bog English Nature condition assessment forms would
                 be summarised along with the additional information collected in the site assessments to
                 identify the main causes of the condition found. This will be linked to past land-
                 use/management where this is known. The management being undertaken on the sample
                 site/area would be clearly identified and linked to the need to address the particular factors
                 resulting in the unfavourable status of the SSSI Unit or sample area.

2.27             The quantitative (typically quadrat-based) and semi-quantitative (typically site area-based)
                 data collected for each sample site/area would be analysed using suitable descriptive
                 statistics (means, standard errors, etc) to identify the basic character of the vegetation
                 community in terms of key species (such as dwarf shrubs and Sphagnum for uplands,
                 ground flora for woodlands, etc) and environmental features (e.g. cover of bare ground,
                 degree of grazing/browsing, dead wood cover).

2.28             In addition, the quadrats would be analysed against standard NVC vegetation types
                 (Rodwell 1991a, 1991b, 1992) using Match V2 (Malloch 1999) and the results of this
                 analysis discussed in relation to classifying the sample area to NVC.

                 Analysis of Change over Time

2.29             The basic descriptive statistics for key species and hydrology/water quality variables would
                 be analysed for significant changes over time using a standard statistical test such as the
                 parametric Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) or non-parametric Kruskal Wallis analysis,
                 depending on the normality of data distribution (Sokal and Rohlf 1995). This detailed
                 statistical analysis would typically be at the individual sample site/area, and not across
                 sample sites/areas.

2.30             Changes in vegetation community composition and key environmental variables in each
                 sample site/area would be assessed over time using Detrended Correspondence Analysis
                 (DCA) and/or Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). It is likely that analysis would
                 require percent cover data for species to be arcsine transformed and would also include
                 down-weighting of rare plant species to ensure they did not unduly influence the analysis

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                                                                                                                                                       February 2006
   PAA                                                                                               United Utilities Ltd- Provision of Sustainable Catchment

                                                                                                                  Management Monitoring (SCaMP) Project
                                                                                                                                    Goyt Valley Estate - DRAFT

                 (Jongman et al. 1995). Results would be presented as ordination diagrams showing
                 quadrats and species for each sample site/area, how they change over time.

2.31             Vegetation data that is integrated with hydrological and water quality data (in particular
                 grip blocking on blanket bog) would be brought together via multivariate data analysis. In
                 particular, the median axis 1 and axis 2 scores from the quadrat-based DCA ordination
                 could be assessed against hydrological and hydrochemical datasets available at the site
                 scale to identify any correlations between the two. This would be undertaken using
                 Spearman rank regression analysis in Systat. A similar approach would be used to integrate
                 the analysis of hay meadow vegetation data with soil analysis data for hay meadows.

2.32             For a selection of sample sites/areas from appropriate habitats both DCA and CCA
                 multivariate analyses would be undertaken using CANOCO. The advantage of this
                 approach is that the DCA, as an unconstrained analysis technique, allows the main
                 variation in plant species composition to be identified more clearly, while the CCA (a
                 constrained analysis approach) would better highlight that part of the data variability that is
                 related to the measured environmental variables (Leps and Smilaller 2003). Therefore the
                 two approaches would be highly complementary in identifying the effects of management
                 on these habitat types.

2.33             To add weight to the evaluation of possible environmental ‘drivers of change’ identified
                 using CCA, the possibility of using ‘forward selection’ procedures on CCA results would
                 be explored (Jongman et al. 1995). This analysis, also undertaken in CANOCO, can be
                 used to identify those environmental variables that are statistically significant in
                 determining the vegetation community change over time.

2.34             While detailed statistical analysis would be largely undertaken within a site, an evaluation
                 of the site-based results would be undertaken at the Estate level and across all Estates
                 (although these latter evaluations would be restricted to the final overview report).

                 Identification of Advancement toward Favourable Condition

2.35             Data interpretation of detailed analysis would focus on the changes in key species,
                 vegetation community and environmental features (such as bare ground, species richness,
                 nutrient availability etc) on the sample area/site in relation to moving unfavourable areas
                 toward a more favourable status for that habitat (this embraces the CSM criteria for
                 favourable condition, but would not be exclusive to it, particularly for those sites that are
                 not SSSIs, and where there are other pertinent features of value).

2.36             This would require some additional analysis of parts of the monitoring dataset against
                 specific CSM targets. Data would be evaluated against the targets set under CSM
                 guidelines for each habitat or those refined targets set by local English Nature teams (where
                 applicable). The results would be used to assess if unfavourable areas where moving
                 toward favourable status (usually referred to as ‘unfavourable recovering’) or had reached
                 favourable status (usually referred to ‘favourable maintained’). For non-SSSI habitats, a
                 broader definition of condition and favourability would be taken to encompass all features
                 of value on each site. This would include the status of national and local UU or other BAP
                 targets for the habitats concerned and the species they support, as well as any other local
                 features of interest that have been found.

2.37             In addition, each woodland site would be assessed against any existing management
                 objectives, such as those set out in the UU Woodland BAP Condition Assessment 2004
                 (PAA 2004). Recommendations would be made for each habitat, based on the findings of
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   PAA                                                                                               United Utilities Ltd- Provision of Sustainable Catchment

                                                                                                                  Management Monitoring (SCaMP) Project
                                                                                                                                    Goyt Valley Estate - DRAFT

                 the monitoring programme, on the relative success of management practices in achieving
                 CMS targets and objectives in terms of favourable condition. A final assessment would also
                 be carried out of the potential contribution of these habitat management practices to
                 hydrological management and water quality.

                 Analysis of Hydrology and Water Quality Data

2.38             Although the choice of statistical technique employed is dependent on the precise nature of
                 those data collected, it is envisaged that some of the following techniques will be employed
                 during the course of the analysis:

                     o      Generation of simple descriptive statistics in the production of interim and ad-hoc
                            data summary reports;

                     o      Investigation of data trends and patterns through a range of graphical and
                            visualisation techniques (graphical and charting techniques);

                     o      Investigation of temporal data trends through a range of time series analysis
                            techniques;

                     o      Standard parametric statistical techniques for hypothesis testing and determination of
                            systematic trends, including methods based on the generalised linear modelling
                            (bivariate and multiple correlation, regression etc.), analysis of variance (e.g. F-test)
                            and t-test procedures;

                     o      Non-parametric techniques for and hypothesis testing and determining trends, in
                            situations where the data dictates (e.g. non-gaussian or binary data types);

                     o      Spatial (geographical)-based statistical summary and reporting using the Idrisi
                            Kilimanjaro and ArcGIS systems;

                     o      Spatial interpolation and predictive modelling using techniques such as kriging and
                            inverse distance weighted averaging;

                     o      Application of spatial statistical models within the GIS (where appropriate),
                            including techniques such as GIS ‘map algebra’, the spatial application of
                            multivariate statistical models such as logistic regression techniques.

2.39             The large volumes of monitoring data will require efficient handling and storage, both
                 before and after statistical analysis and summary. The Microsoft Access database
                 management system will be employed for this purpose, with linkages into the GIS-based
                 data framework.

2.40             The Time-Series Manager software, developed and distributed by DHI Software (the
                 Danish Hydrological Institute) will be employed in order to efficiently organise, store,
                 manage and analyse the hydrometric data collected during the fieldwork phase of the
                 project.

                 Reporting
2.41             Reporting will be as specified in the tender submission.


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   PAA                                                                                               United Utilities Ltd- Provision of Sustainable Catchment

                                                                                                                  Management Monitoring (SCaMP) Project
                                                                                                                                    Goyt Valley Estate - DRAFT

3.               REFERENCES

JNCC (2004a). Common Standards Monitoring for Upland Habitats. JNCC, Peterborough.
JNCC (2004b). Common Standards Monitoring for Woodland Habitats. JNCC, Peterborough.
JNCC (2004c) Common Standards Monitoring Guidance for Vascular Species (Appendix 2). JNCC,
      Peterborough.
JNCC (2004d) Common Standards Monitoring for Lowland Grassland Habitats. JNCC,
     Peterborough.
Jongman, R.H.G., Ter Braak, C.J.F. and Van Tongeren, O.F.R. (1995). Data Analysis in Community
      and Landscape Ecology. Second Edition. CUP, Cambridge.
Leps, J. and Similaller, P. (2003). Multivariate Analysis of Ecological Data using CANOCO. CUP,
        Cambridge.
Malloch, A.J.C. (1992). MATCH - a computer program to aid the assignment of vegetation to the
       communities and subcommunities of the National Vegetation Classification. University of
       Lancaster, UK.
PAA. (2004.) United Utilities Woodland BAP Condition Assessment Report. I Bowland Estate. II
       Central Region. III Southern Region. Unpublished report to UU.
PAA (2005) Provision of Sustainable Catchment Management Monitoring (SCaMP) Project. Tender
      Submission to United Utilities Ltd, July 2005,
Rodwell, J.S. (ed.) (1991a) British plant communities. Vol. 1. Woodlands. CUP, Cambridge.
Rodwell, J.S. (ed.) (1991b.) British plant communities. Vol. 2. Mires and heaths. CUP, Cambridge.
Rodwell, J.S. (ed.) (1992.) British plant communities. Vol. 3. Grassland and montane communities.
       CUP, Cambridge.
Sokal, R.R. and Rohlf, F.J. (1995.) Biometry. Third Edition. W H Freeman and Company.




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