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					        Family of Services
          EMC Update
                  John H. Ward
        Chief, Global Climate and Weather
                 Modeling Branch
                   June 25, 2009
“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”   1
                Topics
Update on 2009 planned implementations
Preliminary look at 2010
National Environmental Modeling System
NAM & Rapid Refresh Evolution




                                          2
                           NCEP’s Model Suite
                       CLIMATE                                          Oceans
                         CFS                Hurricane
                                                                        HYCOM
                     GFS + MOM3/4           GFDL
                                          HWRF (NMM)
                                                                        WaveWatch III
 ~3.5B Obs / Day
     „Mostly‟
     Satellite
     +Radar


                                        North American                  Dispersion, Ash,
                       Global                                           Smoke & Dust
Global Data                               Mesoscale
Assimilation
                      Forecast                                          ARL’s HYSPLIT
                                               NMM
                      System
                                                                        Severe Weather

Regional Data                                                           NMM + ARW
                                          Short-Range
Assimilation                            Ensemble Forecast
                                         NMM + ARW +                    Air Quality
                                          ETA + RSM                     NAM + EPA/
         North American Ensemble                                        ARL’s CMAQ
             Forecast System
        GFS + Canadian Global +…     Very Short Range       Rapid Update
                                                            for Aviation
                                    Ensemble Forecasts      GSD’s RUC                      3
                                    Time-Lagged RUC+NAM
                  2009 Implementations

Change                                                         Planned           Actual
                                                               Dec 08 - Jun 09
Moratorium for CCS P6 Upgrade                                   Aug 09


GSI
   - Add IASI long wave brightness temperatures; improve
   computational efficiency; new version of CRTM_GFSGSI for    2nd Qtr FY09      2/20/09
   radiative transfer; change background error variances and
   standard deviations; variational QC
   - Add NOAA 18 SBUV (ozone only)                             3rd Qtr FY09 
                                                               1st Qtr FY10

SREF
   -Increase resolution of WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM to         3rd Qtr FY09 
   32 km                                                       4th Qtr FY09

   - Expand bias correction from CONUS to North America;       4th Qtr FY09 
   statistical downscaling using 12 km NAM and using 5km       2nd Qtr FY10
   RTMA

                                                                                           4
               SREF Changes
 Upgrade models: WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM
 Increase horizontal resolution for ARW (45 km to 35 km),
  NMM (40 km to 32 km), and RSM (40 km to 32 km)
 Add 4 WRF members while eliminating 4 Eta members
 For the 3 RSM members: replace Zhou cloud with Ferrier
 Use Global Ensemble Transform (ET) perturbations for
  the 10 WRF members
 Increase output frequency from every 3 hr to hourly for
  1st 39hr (for SPC, AWC)
 Add/fix/unify variables in SREF output
      wind variance products (for DTRA)
      radar (composite reflectivity + echo top) (for FAA)
      unify PBL height diagnosis with critical Ri (aviation)
      fix cloud base (aviation)
      BUFR broken out into individual station time-series (SPC)   5
New product example of “Radar Echo Top” comparing
   with NAM-12km Composite Radar Reflectivity




   Echo-top from SREF (NMM-ctl)   Radar-reflectivity from NMM-12km


                                                                     6
            2009 Implementations
Change                                                        Planned          Actual
GFS
  - Physics changes                                           3rd Qtr FY09     Withdrawn
  - Post consolidation & GFS code restructuring               4th Qtr FY09
  - Add ability to downscale GFS output (out to 8 days) to    4th Qtr FY09 
  NDFD resolution; produce NDFD guidance grids for GU;        1st Qtr FY10
  add weather type parameter

                                                              3rd Qtr FY09 
HWRF                                                          4th Qtr FY09
  - Include gravity drag and wind-driven sea spray

GEFS
  - Increase horizontal resolution T126->T190 for 4 daily     3rd Qtr FY09 
  cycles out to 384H; use 8th horizontal diffusion for all    4th Qtr FY09
  horizontal resolutions; introduce stochastic perturbation
  scheme

RUC
  - Extend forecast 18H; provide output every hour of         4th Qtr FY09 
  forecast period                                             1st Qtr FY10
                                                                                           7
   Post Consolidation & GFS Restructuring

Improved algorithms for the calculation of:
   Vorticity
   Isentropic Potential Vorticity
   Dynamic Tropopause Fields
   PBL Mean RH
   Best CAPE/CIN
   Best Lifted Index
   LFM 0.33-1.00 RH
Additional Fields
   Relative Humidity At 10...30...50 and 70 mb
   Helicity
   ICAO Tropopause Height and Maximum Wind Level
   Sunshine Duration – Last element for TIGGE
                                                    8
                       Proposed HWRF


 Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization
 Modified Initialization
 Wind Driven Sea Spray
 Bug fix for Land Surface Temperature
 Bug fix for solar radiation
 Bug fix for non-hydrostatic advection of vertical velocity
 Q2FY09 GSI/GFS for initial and boundary conditions
 Restart capability
 Unified scripting with advanced options for high-
  resolution, 3-way coupling with POM, HYCOM, Wave
  Watch III; genesis mode etc.

                                                               9
  Withdrawn for 2009
             GEFS Planned Changes
 Continue using current operational GFS
 Upgrade horizontal resolution from T126 to T190
    4 cycles per day, 20+1 members per cycle
    Up to 384 hours (16 days)
 Use 8th order horizontal diffusion for all resolutions
    Improved forecast skills and ensemble spread
 Introduce ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) for
  GEFS
    Version 3.1.0rp2
    Allows concurrent generation of all ensemble members
    Needed for efficiency of stochastic perturbation scheme
 Add stochastic perturbation scheme to account for random
  model errors
    Increased ensemble spread and forecast skill (reliability)
 Add new variables (27 more) to pgrba files
    Based on user request
    From current 52 (variables) to future 79 (variables)
                                                                  10
    For NAEFS ensemble data exchange
NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa Height
                                    Period: August 1st – September 30th 2007

                                             GFS      GEFS         GEFSg
                       1
                                                                    GEFSg could extend skillful forecast
                      0.9                                                  (60%) for 9+ days

                      0.8                                           24 hours better than current GEFS
                                                                     48 hours better than current GFS
Anomaly Correlation




                      0.7

                      0.6

                      0.5

                      0.4

                      0.3

                      0.2

                      0.1

                       0
                            1   2    3   4   5   6    7   8    9    10    11    12   13    14    15   16

                                                 Forecast Lead Time (days)                                 11
           2009 Implementations

Change                                                     Planned          Actual
RTMA
  - Add Guam 2.5 km NDFD grid; reduce RTMA grid spacing:   4th Qtr FY09 
  CONUS from 5 km to 2.5 km, AK from 6 km to 3 km          1st Qtr FY10


AQM
  - Add Ozone for AK; ozone and smoke for HI; add          4th Qtr FY09 
  HYSPLIT smoke run for Hawaii; add CMAQ (sfc ozone)       2Qtr10
  runs for AK and HI

HYSPLIT
  - Upgrade dispersion model; include advanced physics,    4th Qtr FY09 
  transport mechanisms, capability to deal with dust       2Qtr10




                                                                                     12
             2009 Implementations

Change                                                          Planned          Actual
Global Multi-Grid Wave Model
   - Generate GRIB2 output earlier in run; increase internal    3rd Qtr FY09 
   spectral model resolution; increase spectral resolution of   1st Qtr FY10
   point output

Hurricane Wave Model
   - Upgrade to new multi-grid model running global NAH and     3rd Qtr FY09 
   NPH grids as a single model                                  1st Qtr FY10

RTOFS
   - Add Jason-2 altimeter data; incremental upgrade of data    3rd Qtr FY09 
   assimilation schemes                                         1st Qtr FY10




                                                                                          13
         Global model Upgrade
           Domain Extension
Extended domain provides more region for swell development on the North
shores of Alaska during the summer months when ice will melt




    Current Domain                             New Domain            14
               2010 Implementations

Change                                                       Planned        Actual
GFS
  - Horizontal Resolution Increase to T574 (27 km) or T878   2nd Qtr FY10
  (22 km) Semi-Lagrangian

NAM
  - NEMS Based                                               4th Qtr FY10

RUC
  - WRF Based                                                4th Qtr FY10

HWRF
  - Coupling with HYCOM                                      3rd Qtr FY10




                                                                                     15
    National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)
        (uses standard ESMF compliant software)

                                   Application Driver

                            ESMF* Superstructure
               (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc)
                                                                               Analysis
             Atmospheric Model                                               --------------
                                                        Coupler1                Ocean
       Dynamics             Physics                     Coupler2
                                                                              -------------
                                                                            Wind Waves
         (1,2)              (1,2,3)                     Coupler3             --------------
                                                                                 LSM
                                                        Coupler4             --------------
                                                        Coupler5                  AQ
      1-1
      1-2   Multi-component ensemble                    Coupler6             --------------
      1-3                                                                    Ens. Gen.
      2-1               +                               Coupler7             --------------
      2-2
                 Stochastic forcing                       Etc.              Ecosystem
      2-3
                                                                             --------------
                                                                                  Etc

                                                       Bias Corrector
          ESMF Utilities                     Post processor & Product Generator
    (clock, error handling, etc)                         Verification
                                                     Resolution change
*Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL
                                                                                          16
                            NCEP Production Suite
                              NCEP Production Suite
                  Weather, Ocean, & Climate Forecast Systems
                 Weather, OceanLand & Climate Forecast Systems
                                                       Version 3.0 April 9, 2004


                                                       Current
                                                   Current (2007)                                 RUC
               100                                                                                FIREWX
                                      NAM anal
                                                                                                  WAVES




                                                             GFS anal
                                                                                                  HUR/HRW
                        GDAS




                80
Percent Used




                                                                                   HUR
                                                                        GFS                       GFSfcst
                               SREF




                                                                                     GENS/NAEFS
                60                               NAM                                              GFSanal




                                                                                           RDAS
                                                                                                  GFSens
                40                                                                                ETAfcst
                                                        AQ
                                                                                                  ETAanal
                20                                     RTOFS                                      SREF
                                                          CFS                                     Air Quality
                 0                                                                                OCEAN
                     0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00
                                                                                                  Monthly
                                 6 Hour Cycle: Four Times/Day                                     Seasonal

                                                                                                         17
                             NCEP Production Suite
                               NCEP Production Suite
                   Weather, Ocean, & Climate Forecast Systems
                  Weather, OceanLand & Climate Forecast Systems
                                             Version 3.0 April 9, 2004

                                    Next Generation Prototype
                                                                                 Computing factor: 81
                                         Phase 4 – 2015+                                 RUC
                                                                                      Rap Refresh
               100                                                                       FIREWX
                                                                  WAV                    WAVES
                                               SREF                                    Added
                80                                                 HUR                   HUR/HRW
                                                                                    •Hourly GDAS &
Percent Used




                      Reforecast
                                            NAM                                          GFSfcst
                                                                                      RDAS
                                                                                         Global
                60                                           GENS/NAEFS                Moved
                                                                                         GFSanal
                        CFS                    GFS                                  • GFS concurrent
                                                                                         GFSens
                        RTOFS
                       MFS                                      RTOFS                 w/ NAM & SREF
                40       AQ     Hydro / NIDIS/FF              AQ                         ETAfcst
                                                                                       Expanded
                                                CFS & MFS                                ETAanal
                                                                                    • Hurricane
                                                                                         Regional
                20                        RDAS                                           SREF(hires)
                                                                                      capability
                                                                                          Hydro
                                                                                         Air Quality
                                                                                    •Reforecast done
                 0                                GDAS
                                                                                      routinely
                                                                                         OCEAN
                   0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00
                                                                                         Monthly
                              6 Hour Cycle: Four Times/Day                               Seasonal

                                                                                               18
        NAM           2009           RUC
 WRF-NMM (Egrid)          Non-WRF RUC model
 GSI analysis             RUC 3DVAR analysis
 4/Day = 6 hr update      24/Day = hourly update
 Forecasts to 84 hours    Forecasts to 18 hours
 12 km horizontal         13 km horizontal
 60 layers with 2 mb      50 layers with 50 mb top
  top                      Continuous forward cycle
 12 hr pre-forecast        with no pre-forecast
  assimilation period       assimilation period
  with 3hr updates
                               RUC-13 CONUS domain
  (catch-up)



                                                     19
                      2010-2011
             NAM                         Rapid Refresh
 NEMS based NMM                      WRF-based ARW
 Bgrid replaces Egrid                NCEP‟s GSI analysis
 Parent remains at 12 km             Expanded 13 km Domain
 Multiple Nests Run to ~48hr          to include Alaska
    ~4 km CONUS nest                 Experimental 3 km HRRR
    ~6 km Alaska nest                  WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010

    ~3 km HI & PR nests, and/or a
     ~1.5-2km DHS/FireWeather/IMET
     are possible
                                          RUC-13 CONUS domain
                                             Original CONUS domain


                                              Experimental 3 km HRRR




                                                                          20
               2012-2013
    NAM/Rapid Refresh ENSEMBLE
               (NRRE)
 NEMS-based NMMB & ARW prediction models
 Both initialized with same GSI analysis code
 Common NAM parent domain at 10-12 km
 Initially ~6 member ensemble made up of equal
  numbers of NMMB- & ARW-based configurations
 Hourly updated with forecasts to 24 hours
 NMMB & ARW control data assimilation cycles
  with 3 hour pre-forecast period (catch-up) with
  hourly updating
 NAM 84 hr forecasts are extensions of the 00z,
  06z, 12z, & 18z runs.                           21
                  2012-2013
 High Resolution Rapid Refresh ENSEMBLE
                  (HRRRE)
 Each member of NRRE contains
    3 km CONUS and Alaskan nests
    Control runs initialized with radar data
 Positions NWS+NCEP+ESRL to
      Provide NextGen Enroute A N D Terminal guidance
      Provide PROBABILITY guidance
      Improve assimilation capabilities with radar & satellite
      Tackle Warn-on-Forecast as resolutions evolve towards ~1 km
 NAM nests are extensions of the 00z, 06z, 12z & 18Z runs.
      Both NRRE and HRRRE
   Require Bigger NCEP Computer
                                                                22
                         References
 Ensemble Perturbations
    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/papers/TellusA2008_ET.pdf
 NEMS
    ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154223.pdf
 HWRF
    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/HWRF/index.html
 Multi-Grid Wave
    http://www.waveworkshop.org/10thWaves/Presentations/B3.%20chawlaetal.pdf




                                                                                23

				
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