2nd

							Going Green Does Not
     Save Green
   Corn-based Ethanol and U.S. Energy
             Independence

              Team #072
                   The Problem
1.   How much ethanol is needed to replace 10% of
     annual U.S. gasoline usage?
2.   What effect will this fuel substitution have on carbon
     dioxide emissions?
3.   Is corn-derived ethanol a cost-efficient way of
     producing fuel?
4.   Estimate the effect of this policy on grain prices and
     developing nations over the next five years.
5.   Are there better ways for the U.S. to attain national
     energy independence?
Ethanol for a 10%
    Mixture
How much ethanol is needed to
   replace 10% of annual U.S.
         gasoline usage?
                                                                US Finished Motor Gasoline Supply

                                                160


                                                140
Gasoline Usage (Billions of Gallons Per Year)




                                                120


                                                100


                                                 80


                                                 60


                                                 40


                                                 20


                                                  0
                                                  1940   1950    1960      1970       1980      1990   2000   2010
             Purpose of Mixture
   Gasoline consumption and emissions have been
    increasing for decades
   Burning ethanol generates less air pollution than
    burning gasoline
   A mixture of gasoline and ethanol thus burns
    cleaner than pure gasoline
            Concerns for Mixing
   Ethanol has a lower energy density than gasoline
     Let Eg be the energy density of gasoline
     Let Ee be the energy density of ethanol

     Ratio Ee / Eg is approximately 0.66

   Greater volume of ethanol is required to to store
    equal energy
   Total fuel volume increases when mixed
     Volume of Ethanol Required
   Let V be current fuel volume
   Let V’ be fuel volume of mixture
   Let f be fraction of ethanol in mixture

   fV’ is volume of ethanol
   (1 – f)V’ is volume of gasoline
    Volume of Ethanol Required (2)
   Amount of energy must remain constant
           EgV  Eg 1  f V   Ee fV 
   Solve for new fuel volume
                            Eg
             V                          V
                    E g 1  f   Ee f
   Substitute E = Ee / Eg and solve for V’e
                           1
               Ve                Vf
                     1  E  1 f
                                                        Ethanol Required for 10% Mixture

                                          15




                                          15
Volume of Ethanol (billions of gallons)




                                          14




                                          14




                                          13




                                          13




                                          12
                                          1994   1996   1998      2000      2002       2004   2006   2008
Emissions of Corn-
 Based Ethanol
What effect will this fuel substitution
have on carbon dioxide emissions?
          Comparison of Emissions
          The increase in the emissions of greenhouse gases
            CO2 is emissions are higher greenhouse gas
        CO and CO2 not the only harmfulthan the chart implies
                     Per vehicle mile traveled (VMT)
                             is substantial
                                Gasoline
                                                Ethanol From
Greenhouse Gas                 Emissions
                                                    Corn
                               (g/VMT)
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)              347.6              325.6
Methane (CH4)                      3.52               6.2
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)                23.8              131.1
Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)             ~48.8             ~107.1
Carbon Monoxide (CO)               27.7              21.8
Total                             451.4              591.8
 Cost Efficiency of
Corn-Based Ethanol
Is corn-derived ethanol a cost-efficient
        way of producing fuel?
       Cost Efficiency Of Ethanol
                                        10% Ethanol-   85% Ethanol-
Cost For A Gallon Of Each Mixture       Gasoline Mix   Gasoline Mix
Corn Ethanol Futures Market Quote For
                                           $2.35          $2.35
April 2008
Cost Of Transporting, Storing, and
                                           $0.03          $0.28
Blending Corn Ethanol
Cost of Making Gasoline That Can Be
                                           $0.77          $0.09
Blended With Corn Ethanol

Cost of Subsidies Paid To Blender          $0.06          $0.51

Total Direct Costs per Gallon              $3.21          $3.23
Model of 10% Ethanol
   Mixture Use
  Estimate the effect of this policy on
  grain prices and developing nations
        over the next five years.
                Assumptions
   No major changes in the following trends:
     American gas consumption

     Relationship between corn price and ethanol
      demand
   Constant future farming efficiency
   Low 2005 corn price is abnormal
Model Design
Model Design
Model Design
Model Design
                Model Design

Projected gasoline      Ethanol      Volume of
  consumption           needed      corn needed

                                  Resulting value
                Constant yield
                                     of corn


              Acreage needed      Harvest price per
                                      bushel
The Model
       Model Results/Analysis

        Harvest Price    Acreage needed for corn
Year       (corn)          (millions of acres)
2009   $8.36 +/- $2.47            44.3
2010   $8.46 +/- $2.49            44.9
2011   $8.56 +/- $2.52            44.6
2012   $8.66 +/- $2.54            45.2
2013   $8.76 +/- $2.56            45.8
Model Results/Analysis
Model Results/Analysis
 Alternatives for U.S.
Energy Independence
  Are there better ways for the U.S. to
  attain national energy independence?
Alternative Methods to attain Energy
            Independence
   Alaskan Petroleum Reserves
       5.9-13.2 Billion barrels of recoverable oil on federal lands
       Able to replace imported oil from Middle East for 3-6 years
   Nuclear Energy
       Currently 104 nuclear reactors
       No harmful greenhouse gases
       Storage for nuclear waste is not a concern
Alternative Methods to attain Energy
          Independence (2)
   Hydroelectric
     Use moving water to power generators
     Accounts for 19% of world energy

   Solar Power
     Sun releases an immense amount of energy
     Most practical for electricity generation
Alternative Methods to attain Energy
          Independence (3)
   Geothermal
     Energy stored beneath Earth’s surface
     Clean, Safe and Sustainable

   Other Biofuels
       Crops such as sugar cane, sugar beet and algae
        give us alternative biofuels to use for energy
Going Green Does Not
     Save Green