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```					Going Green Does Not
Save Green
Corn-based Ethanol and U.S. Energy
Independence

Team #072
The Problem
1.   How much ethanol is needed to replace 10% of
annual U.S. gasoline usage?
2.   What effect will this fuel substitution have on carbon
dioxide emissions?
3.   Is corn-derived ethanol a cost-efficient way of
producing fuel?
4.   Estimate the effect of this policy on grain prices and
developing nations over the next five years.
5.   Are there better ways for the U.S. to attain national
energy independence?
Ethanol for a 10%
Mixture
How much ethanol is needed to
replace 10% of annual U.S.
gasoline usage?
US Finished Motor Gasoline Supply

160

140
Gasoline Usage (Billions of Gallons Per Year)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1940   1950    1960      1970       1980      1990   2000   2010
Purpose of Mixture
   Gasoline consumption and emissions have been
   Burning ethanol generates less air pollution than
burning gasoline
   A mixture of gasoline and ethanol thus burns
cleaner than pure gasoline
Concerns for Mixing
   Ethanol has a lower energy density than gasoline
 Let Eg be the energy density of gasoline
 Let Ee be the energy density of ethanol

 Ratio Ee / Eg is approximately 0.66

   Greater volume of ethanol is required to to store
equal energy
   Total fuel volume increases when mixed
Volume of Ethanol Required
   Let V be current fuel volume
   Let V’ be fuel volume of mixture
   Let f be fraction of ethanol in mixture

   fV’ is volume of ethanol
   (1 – f)V’ is volume of gasoline
Volume of Ethanol Required (2)
   Amount of energy must remain constant
EgV  Eg 1  f V   Ee fV 
   Solve for new fuel volume
Eg
V                          V
E g 1  f   Ee f
   Substitute E = Ee / Eg and solve for V’e
1
Ve                Vf
1  E  1 f
Ethanol Required for 10% Mixture

15

15
Volume of Ethanol (billions of gallons)

14

14

13

13

12
1994   1996   1998      2000      2002       2004   2006   2008
Emissions of Corn-
Based Ethanol
What effect will this fuel substitution
have on carbon dioxide emissions?
Comparison of Emissions
The increase in the emissions of greenhouse gases
CO2 is emissions are higher greenhouse gas
CO and CO2 not the only harmfulthan the chart implies
Per vehicle mile traveled (VMT)
is substantial
Gasoline
Ethanol From
Greenhouse Gas                 Emissions
Corn
(g/VMT)
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)              347.6              325.6
Methane (CH4)                      3.52               6.2
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)                23.8              131.1
Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)             ~48.8             ~107.1
Carbon Monoxide (CO)               27.7              21.8
Total                             451.4              591.8
Cost Efficiency of
Corn-Based Ethanol
Is corn-derived ethanol a cost-efficient
way of producing fuel?
Cost Efficiency Of Ethanol
10% Ethanol-   85% Ethanol-
Cost For A Gallon Of Each Mixture       Gasoline Mix   Gasoline Mix
Corn Ethanol Futures Market Quote For
\$2.35          \$2.35
April 2008
Cost Of Transporting, Storing, and
\$0.03          \$0.28
Blending Corn Ethanol
Cost of Making Gasoline That Can Be
\$0.77          \$0.09
Blended With Corn Ethanol

Cost of Subsidies Paid To Blender          \$0.06          \$0.51

Total Direct Costs per Gallon              \$3.21          \$3.23
Model of 10% Ethanol
Mixture Use
Estimate the effect of this policy on
grain prices and developing nations
over the next five years.
Assumptions
   No major changes in the following trends:
 American gas consumption

 Relationship between corn price and ethanol
demand
   Constant future farming efficiency
   Low 2005 corn price is abnormal
Model Design
Model Design
Model Design
Model Design
Model Design

Projected gasoline      Ethanol      Volume of
consumption           needed      corn needed

Resulting value
Constant yield
of corn

Acreage needed      Harvest price per
bushel
The Model
Model Results/Analysis

Harvest Price    Acreage needed for corn
Year       (corn)          (millions of acres)
2009   \$8.36 +/- \$2.47            44.3
2010   \$8.46 +/- \$2.49            44.9
2011   \$8.56 +/- \$2.52            44.6
2012   \$8.66 +/- \$2.54            45.2
2013   \$8.76 +/- \$2.56            45.8
Model Results/Analysis
Model Results/Analysis
Alternatives for U.S.
Energy Independence
Are there better ways for the U.S. to
attain national energy independence?
Alternative Methods to attain Energy
Independence
   5.9-13.2 Billion barrels of recoverable oil on federal lands
   Able to replace imported oil from Middle East for 3-6 years
   Nuclear Energy
   Currently 104 nuclear reactors
   No harmful greenhouse gases
   Storage for nuclear waste is not a concern
Alternative Methods to attain Energy
Independence (2)
   Hydroelectric
 Use moving water to power generators
 Accounts for 19% of world energy

   Solar Power
 Sun releases an immense amount of energy
 Most practical for electricity generation
Alternative Methods to attain Energy
Independence (3)
   Geothermal
 Energy stored beneath Earth’s surface
 Clean, Safe and Sustainable

   Other Biofuels
   Crops such as sugar cane, sugar beet and algae
give us alternative biofuels to use for energy
Going Green Does Not
Save Green

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