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					                                                                              MORGAN                                                   STANLEY                     RESEARCH
                                                                              NORTH                                                 AMERICA


                                                                              Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated                                                 Evan Calio
                                                                                                                                                                Evan.Calio@morganstanley.com
                                                                                                                                                                +1 212 761 6472

                                                                                                                                                                Ben Hur
                                                                                                                                                                Ben.Hur@morganstanley.com
                                                                                                                                                                +1 212 761 7827

                                                                                                                                                                Marko Lazarevic
                June 10, 2011                                                                                                                                   Marko.Lazarevic@morganstanley.com
                                                                                                                                                                +1 212 761 3692


Industry View   Refining & Marketing                                                                                                                            Todd Firestone
                                                                                                                                                                Todd.Firestone@morganstanley.com
                                                                                                                                                                +1 212 761 7674
Attractive
                The Hurricane Impact and
                                                                              Inside This Week in Refining                                                                                                        Page
                Updating 2Q11 Estimates                                       Historical Major Hurricanes and Refining Effects
                                                                              Refining Earnings Tracker and Updated Estimates
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    6
                                                                              Investment Perspectives                                                                                                               7
                Major hurricanes have been a positive catalyst for            Earnings Estimates and Equity Performance                                                                                             8
                refiners. The 2011 hurricane season has begun with            WTI Versus Waterborne Crude Oil Prices                                                                                               11
                                                                              Weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report                                                                                                   12
                3-9 major hurricanes (Category 3-5) forecasted by the
                                                                              Weekly Crack Spread Performance                                                                                                      13
                premier meteorologists vs. the historical average of two.     Refining Sector: Thesis, Themes and Ratings                                                                                          14
                The last 4 major hurricanes to hit the Gulf Coast (Katrina,   Commodity and Economic Forecasts                                                                                                     17
                Rita, Gustav and Ike) caused 2.5-4.0 mmbpd of refining        Crude Oil Markets and Fundamentals                                                                                                   19
                outages in the Gulf Coast and tripled margins when            US and Global Refined Product Crack Spreads                                                                                          22
                compared to same periods of time without hurricanes.          Refined Product Fundamentals                                                                                                         27
                Gulf Coast margins increased the most due to lack of          Refining and Marketing Comparable Metrics                                                                                            31
                                                                              Publications and Content Index                                                                                                       32
                production and supply followed by East Coast and
                                                                              Disclosures                                                                                                                          33
                Mid-Con regions, which made up and benefited from
                product shortfalls. Independent refining equities
                                                                              Refiners Outperform 10% During Previous
                outperformed energy an average of 10% during
                                                                              Major Hurricanes
                hurricanes starting the several days before landfall and
                                                                                                                                    Refiners       Integrated       EPX        Oil Services        S&P 500
                peaking the week after.                                                                             115




                Crack spreads and capture rates move lower                                                          110
                                                                               Relative Performance Versus Energy




                bringing down 2Q11 estimates. Based primarily on
                lower trending refining margins in the Gulf Coast and                                               105


                West Coast we are bringing down our 2Q11 earnings
                                                                                                                    100
                estimates by 12%. Although VLO and TSO estimates
                are still higher than the Street, margins have not held nor
                                                                                                                    95
                improved as we expected in the beginning of the quarter
                and refiners have been impacted by turnarounds and
                                                                                                                    90
                unplanned outages. According to our MS refining                                                           -4   -2      0       2     4      6      8      10     12    14     16      18     20

                earnings tracker, VLO, TSO and SUN 2Q EPS look to                                                                                        Days to Hurricane Landfall

                                                                              *based on 2005 and 2008 major hurricanes
                trend lower (based on QTD realized plus last week             Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research
                extrapolated margins). Surprisingly, WTI-LLS spreads
                are ~$17/bbl QTD wider than we expected, providing
                greater benefit to Mid-Con refining assets who run WTI
                priced crudes

                Refiners and cracks underperform for the week.
                Week to date in refining, the group traded 2.3% lower,        Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with
                ~1.5% below broader energy sector and S&P 500.                companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As
                Crack spreads from major US regions were mixed with           a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
                Mid-Con WTI 3-2-1 up 7%, Gulf Coast LLS 3-2-1 up              have a conflict of interest that could affect the
                19%, yet NY 2-1-1 down 14% and West Coast ANS                 objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors
                                                                              should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a
                3-2-1 down 13%. Crude differentials were also mixed           single factor in making their investment decision.
                with WTI-Brent up 11%, LLS-Maya down 7%, and
                                                                              For analyst certification and other important
                LLS-Mars down 16%                                             disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section,
                                                                              located at the end of this report.
                                                                                        MORGAN                     STANLEY                        RESEARCH

                                                                                        June 10, 2011
                                                                                        Refining & Marketing




Hurricane Season Has Arrived
Hurricanes Season has arrived and matters for US refining.                              Exhibit 2

Hurricane season is upon us and typically runs from June 1                              2011 Major Hurricane Forecast Above Average
through November 30 with most storms in late summer to early                                                                          Category 3         Category 4           Category 5
                                                                                          6                                                                                   Average of NOAA,
fall months. Historically, major hurricanes that have made                                                                                                                    Colorado State and
landfall in the Gulf of Mexico Coast, have created significant                            5
                                                                                                                                                                              WeatherBell estimates

refinery outages driving higher crack spreads and near-term
                                                                                          4
refining sector outperformance vs. broader energy in the period
following the damage. See exhibits 1-5. There is                                                                          15-year Average
                                                                                          3
approximately ~8MMbpd of refining capacity on the Gulf Coast,
which represents ~45% of total US refining capacity.                                      2


Exhibit 1                                                                                 1

The Impact of Major Hurricanes on Refineries
                                                                                          0
                                          Capacity GC 321        Refiner Best Refiner




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2011E
                                                                                              1995

                                                                                                     1996

                                                                                                            1997

                                                                                                                   1998

                                                                                                                            1999

                                                                                                                                    2000

                                                                                                                                           2001

                                                                                                                                                  2002

                                                                                                                                                         2003

                                                                                                                                                                2004

                                                                                                                                                                       2005

                                                                                                                                                                              2006

                                                                                                                                                                                     2007

                                                                                                                                                                                            2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                           2010
Hurricane      Landfall             Offline (mbpd) Increase Performance        Stock
Andrew         Aug 23, 1992              850-1,000      NA           NA           NA
Katrina        Aug 29, 2005                   2,500   300%         17%          FTO
                                                                                        Source: NOAA, Morgan Stanley Research
Rita           Sept 24, 2005                  4,000   350%           3%         FTO
Gustav         Sept 1, 2008                   2,700   200%         13%          FTO
Ike            Sept 13, 2008                  4,000   100%          -1%         HOC
*Performance Relative to Energy week after hurricane landfall
                                                                                        Exhibit 3
Source: DOE, Bloomberg, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                        Expected 2011 Weather Pattern Feeds Forecast
Active forecast for 2011 Hurricane season. While
forecasting any hurricane season is challenging, the three
majors surveys have forecasted the following for 2011: (1) the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
forecasts a 70% probability for 3-6 major hurricanes (Category
3-5 with sustained winds of 111mph or greater) versus the
historical average of 2; (2) Colorado Sate University forecasts 9
major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin; and (3) WeatherBell
Analytic’s (Joe Bastardi) forecasts an above normal season.
These are reasonably high number versus the 15-year average.
See Exhibit 2. NOAA bases their forecast on the tropical
multi-decadal signal, where strong West Africa monsoon
season, drier Amazon conditions, and higher Atlantic
temperatures bring strong winds and storms West across the
Atlantic. Colorado University State has opined that since 1995,                         Source: NOAA, Morgan Stanley Research
the US remains in a favorable multi-decadal period for
enhanced Atlantic Basin hurricane activity, which is expected
to continue for the next 10-15 years. WeatherBell Analytic’s                            Exhibit 4
Joe Bastardi forecasts for an above normal 2011 season is                               Meet the 2011 Roster: Names for Tropical Storms
based on increased Gulf of Mexico temperatures and                                             Arlene                              Franklin                       Katia                            Philippe
weakening La Nina effects (higher Atlantic temperatures).                                       Bret                                 Gert                         Lee                               Rina
                                                                                               Cindy                               Harvey                         Maria                             Sean
                                                                                                Don                                 Irene                         Nate                             Tammy
                                                                                               Emily                                Jose                         Ophelia                            Vince
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Whitney
                                                                                        Source: NOAA, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2
                                                                                                                                                                                  MORGAN                                                                  STANLEY                    RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                  June 10, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  Refining & Marketing




Major GoM Hurricanes Have Significantly Impacted US Refining
Crack spreads nearly triple following major hurricanes.                                                                                                                           Exhibit 7

During the last four major hurricanes, crack spreads have                                                                                                                         Mid-Con Benefit Longest Following Rita in 2005
nearly increased by 200-300% when 20% of PADD 3 capacity                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2005             2008          '04,'06,'07 Average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   40                                        Katrina Gustav           Ike
was shut down as a hurricane impact. Margins tend to rise                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (2005) (2008)           (2008)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Rita
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (2005)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   35
prior to hurricane landfall (as trackers indicate a potential GoM
landfall) and fall a week later in conjunction with refinery                                                                                                                                                                       30




                                                                                                                                                                                   Mid-Con 3:2:1 ($/bbl)
outages. Refining margins are extremely volatile during these                                                                                                                                                                      25

periods of time: for example during Hurricane Rita Gulf Coast                                                                                                                                                                      20
3:2:1 crack spreads quadrupled. Gulf Coast margins are not
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   15
the only ones affected, as East Coast and Mid-Con margins
also increased by 50-200% during 2005 and 2008, (shorter                                                                                                                                                                           10

peak periods) because PADD 3 was unable to supply PADD 1                                                                                                                                                                           5

and 2 with refined products. The actually refining damage is                                                                                                                                                                       0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jul



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Oct



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Aug



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Aug



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sep



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sep
more from storm surge and water damage and transportation
damage than actual physical damage from high winds.                                                                                                                               Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 5
                                                                                                                                                                                  Refiners outperform by 10% following major hurricanes.
Gulf Coast Cracks Up 200-300% in Fall 2005, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                  On a sector level, refiners have typically outperformed broader
                                                                                             2005            2008          '04,'06,'07 Average
                                       45                                                                                                                                         energy before and after hurricane landfall. Refiners increased
                                                                                              Katrina       Gustav       Ike
                                       40                                                     (2005)        (2008)     (2008)                Rita                                 an average of 5% higher before landfall and another 5% in the
                                                                                                                                             (2005)
                                       35                                                                                                                                         following week. The stocks typically reversed back to the mean
  Gulf Coast 3:2:1 ($/bbl)




                                       30                                                                                                                                         within two weeks following landfall except for Katrina, where
                                       25                                                                                                                                         gains held for a longer period of time due to capacity off-line for
                                       20                                                                                                                                         longer during a tighter global market. Historically, FTO had the
                                       15                                                                                                                                         best relative performance amongst refiners as Mid-Con
                                       10                                                                                                                                         margins also increased, while FTO refineries were unaffected
                                                        5                                                                                                                         by hurricanes.
                                                        0
                                                            Jul



                                                                        Jul



                                                                                Jul



                                                                                       Aug



                                                                                                    Aug



                                                                                                                 Sep



                                                                                                                                Sep



                                                                                                                                       Oct



                                                                                                                                                        Oct



                                                                                                                                                                Nov



                                                                                                                                                                            Nov




                                                                                                                                                                                  Exhibit 8
                                                                                                                                                                                  Refiners Outperformed Energy by 10% During the
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                                                                                                                  Major Hurricanes of Last Decade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Refiners          Integrated              EPX            Oil Services          S&P 500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   115
Exhibit 6
East Coast Cracks Spike Mostly in 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                              Relative Performance Versus Energy




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   110

                                                                                               2005            2008         '04,'06,'07 Average

                                                        35                                    Katrina Gustav  Ike           Rita
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   105
                                                                                              (2005) (2008) (2008)          (2005)

                                                        30

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   100
                             East Coast 3:2:1 ($/bbl)




                                                        25


                                                        20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    95

                                                        15


                                                        10                                                                                                                                                                          90
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -4     -2    0     2            4          6          8         10        12     14         16     18   20
                                                            5                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Days to Hurricane Landfall


                                                            0                                                                                                                     *based on performance from 2005 and 2008 major hurricanes
                                                                                                                                      Oct



                                                                                                                                                      Oct
                                                                  Jul



                                                                          Jul



                                                                                 Jul



                                                                                        Aug



                                                                                                      Aug



                                                                                                                 Sep



                                                                                                                                Sep




                                                                                                                                                              Nov



                                                                                                                                                                      Nov




                                                                                                                                                                                  Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            3
                                                               MORGAN        STANLEY      RESEARCH

                                                               June 10, 2011
                                                               Refining & Marketing




A new element of any future hurricane impact – WTI/Brent       consumption of imports (Brent). Net net, hurricanes should
spreads impact. We believe that hurricanes will also impact    tighten Brent-WTI discounts, yet the high margins in Mid-Con
the WTI-Brent spread if outages occur in PADD 3. Cushing is    would likely more than offset a reduction in feed cost
currently oversupplied and bottlenecked from increasing        advantage. Conversely, damage to any GoM production
production at the Bakken, Canada and Permian (and other        platforms or pipeline infrastructure could also help support
emerging liquids plays). We believe there would be competing   Brent and waterborne crude pricing. As in other emergencies,
tensions – we would assume Mid-con refiners run harder to      we expect US strategic reserves to be release if needed, which
produce into short product markets, which would increase       has some impact on WTI depending on where these volumes
demand while imports would be lowered by plants out in the     are released into the market. Overall, we note the event would
Gulf Coast. We expect Gulf Coast crudes used in the US         be hard to handicap given the recent nature of WTI dislocations
would run up Capline (if LOOP is unaffected) and reduce        to waterborne crude oil and complications in hurricane impact.




                                                                                                                            4
                                                                                   MORGAN           STANLEY        RESEARCH

                                                                                   June 10, 2011
                                                                                   Refining & Marketing




Exhibit 9
Major Hurricane Landfalls and Gulf Coast Refineries (refineries listed as operator, location, capacity in mbpd)

                                                                      Operator, Location   mbpd
                                                                      XOM, Baton Rouge      504
                       Operator, Location mbpd                        Motiva, Convent       255
                       Citgo, Lake Charles 440                        ALJ, Krotz Spring      83
                       COP, Lake Charles 252
                                                                                                    Operator, Location   mbpd
                                                                                                    MRO, Garyville        464
 Operator, Location      mbpd                                                                       VLO, Norco            250
 XOM, Beaumont            345                                                                       Motiva, Norco         250
 Motiva, Port Arthur      300                                                                       RDS, St Rose           56
 VLO, Port Arthur         310
 TOT, Port Arthur         240
 RDS, Deer Park           340


 Operator, Location mbpd
 BP, Texas City      475
 VLO, Texas City     245
 MRO, Texas City      76
 XOM, Baytown        584                                                                                                    Operator, Location   mbpd
 RDS, Deer Park      340                                                                                                    CVX, Pascagoula       360
 LYB, Houston        302                                                                                                    RDS, Mobile            85


                                                                                                                 Operator, Location   mbpd
                                                                                                                 XOM, Chalmette        200
                                                                                                                 MUR, Meraux           125
                                                                                                                 COP, Alliance         260




                   Operator, Location         mbpd
                   Flint Hills, Corpus Christi 300
                   VLO, Corpus Christi         315                                                                                                               Katrina
                   Citgo, Corpus Christi       165                                                                                                               (2005)


     Operator, Location     mbpd                                                                                                                                    Andrew
     VLO, Three Rivers       100                                                                                                                                    (1992)

                                                                                             Ike                                                        Gustav
                                                                                           (2008)                                                                  Rita
                                                                                                                                                        (2008)
                                                                                                                                                                  (2005)

Source: Bloomberg, NOAA, GAO, Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                         5
                                                                                   MORGAN        STANLEY       RESEARCH

                                                                                   June 10, 2011
                                                                                   Refining & Marketing




Morgan Stanley Quarterly Earnings Tracker & Revised Estimates
Exhibit 10
Morgan Stanley Earnings Tracker: illustrative 2Q11 EPS estimates using current QTD and current week of crack
spreads and crude oil differentials compared to our current estimates and Street consensus

                          QTD Extrapolated              QTD Realized + Last Wk Extrapolated                 MS Estimates         Consensus
                       $1.80

                       $1.60

                       $1.40

                       $1.20
   2Q11 EPS Estimate




                       $1.00

                       $0.80

                       $0.60

                       $0.40

                       $0.20

                       $0.00
                                        DK                      SUN                 TSO                     VLO                  WNR
Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Morgan Stanley Research


   •                   Tracking Above Consensus for 2Q but lower than prior weeks. Regional cracks have begun to trend lower in the last 3
                       weeks reducing our above consensus averages to 11% from 26% last week. We changed our 2Q estimates per Exhibit 10.

Exhibit 11
2Q11E EPS revisions – Revising for lower GC and WC margins and lowering capture rates
                                     MS Revised EPS                           Prior Estimates                            % Difference
Company                       2Q11     3Q11 FY 2011      FY 2012       2Q11     3Q11 FY 2011     FY 2012          2Q11    3Q11 FY 2011      FY 2012
Valero                       $1.53    $1.24    $4.05       $2.97      $1.73    $1.24     $4.25     $2.97        -11.7%    0.0%      -4.8%      0.0%
Tesoro                       $1.41    $1.13     $3.61      $2.52      $1.63    $1.13     $3.84     $2.52        -13.6%   -0.1%      -5.9%     -0.2%
Sunoco                       $0.43    $0.93    $1.43       $3.27      $0.52    $0.91     $1.49     $2.98        -18.2%    1.8%      -4.5%      9.7%
Frontier                       ++       ++       ++         ++          ++       ++        ++       ++              NM      NM         NM        NM
Holly                          ++       ++       ++         ++          ++       ++        ++       ++              NM      NM         NM        NM
Western                      $1.16    $0.70    $2.50       $1.98      $1.17    $0.70     $2.50     $1.89         -0.4%    0.0%      -0.2%      4.8%
Alon USA                     $0.42    $0.02    $0.64      ($0.16)     $0.54    $0.02     $0.77    ($0.15)       -22.8%    0.0%    -16.2%       3.1%
Delek US                     $0.70    $0.36     $1.54      $1.05      $0.74    $0.36     $1.57     $1.05         -4.4%    0.0%      -2.1%      0.0%
Average                                                                                                        -11.9%    0.3%      -5.6%      2.9%
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                 6
                                                                                                                                                                                           MORGAN        STANLEY       RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                           June 10, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                           Refining & Marketing




Investment Perspectives
Exhibit 12                                                                                                                                                                                 Weekly DOE report shows rising utilization and stocks.
Weekly Equity Performance                                                                                                                                                                  Refinery utilization increased 1.2% this week to 87.2%, mostly
                                                                                                                                                             SUN, 4.1%                     on an increase in PADD 5 with utilization moving up to 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                           levels after falling sharply in April. Crude stocks decreased 4.8
                                                                                                                                  CVR, 1.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                           MMbbl this week, as crude oil imports decreased 918 mbpd,
                                                                                     HOC, -0.1%                                                                                            with largest declines in PADD 3. Refined product stocks
                                                                                       FTO, -0.1%
                                                                                                                                                                                           increased 6.3 MMbbl this week, in line with 5-year average
                                                                                                                                                                                           trends, led by a 3.1 MMbbl rise in residual fuel oil and other oil
                                                                              Int. Oil, -0.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                           products while gasoline rose 2.2 MMbbl and distillate fuel by
                                                                             MLP's, -0.4%                                                                                                  0.8 MMbbl this week. Rising product stocks matched
                                                                                                                                                                                           production increases, as total implied product demand held
                                                                           Energy, -0.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                           steady, rising marginally by 88 kbpd from last week, yet down
                                                                             DK, -0.8%                                                                                                     280 mbpd from last year (-3.9% YoY on a 4-week avg. basis).
                                                             Oil Svcs, -1.1%
                                                                                                                                                                                           Implied jet fuel demand rose nearly 100 mbpd (+7.0% WoW),
                                                                                                                                                                                           while implied gasoline demand fell 268 mbpd (-2.8% WoW)
                                                                          E&P, -1.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                           and distillate demand fell 44 mbpd (-1.0% WoW).
                                                         S&P 500, -1.8%
                                                                                                                                                                                           EPA raises concerns about Keystone XL pipeline. In a
                                                   US R&M, -2.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                           letter sent to the State Department, the EPA recommended
                                         ALJ, -3.7%                                                                                                                                        further analysis on oil spill risks, impacts to neighboring
                                       VLO, -4.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                           communities and environment, and additional greenhouse gas
                                                                                                                                                                                           emissions. The public comment period has closed and the
   SRS (EU), -5.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                           State Department is reviewing over 100,000 comments
                     TSO, -5.5%                                                                                                                                                            received before issuing a decision. We continue to expect
   NES1V (EU), -                                                                                                                                                                           approval of the expansion by year-end (may slip project by 1Q).
      5.7%

 PPHN (EU), -6.1%                                                                                                                                                                          Operational updates: XOM Baton Rouge docks completely
 WNR, -6.8%
                                                                                                                                                                                           reopened, while VLO and WNR have power outages.
                                                                                                                                                                                           Following closure for the Mississippi River flooding in mid-May,
 -8%                      -6%                            -4%                  -2%                         0%                     2%                         4%                6%           XOM operations at back a normal rates this week. VLO Port
Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research, From June 2 to June 9, 2011                                                                                                                      Arthur refinery is in restart following a power outage and
                                                                                                                                                                                           various sections of WNR El Paso refinery are restarting after
Exhibit 13                                                                                                                                                                                 sporadic power outages early in the week.
Historical Refining Performance Versus Market
                                                                           Refining          Energy                         S&P 500                                                        PDV hopes to help fund Petrobras and Petroecuador
  180
                                                                                                                                                                                           refining projects. Venezuelan state-owned oil company
  160
                                                                                                                                                                                           planned an agreement to finance 40% of a new 230 mbpd
  140
                                                                                                                                                                                           refinery in Brazil. The Venezuelan president also reiterated
  120
                                                                                                                                                                                           plans for a JV with Petroecuador on a new Ecuador refinery.
  100
                                                                                                                                                                                           However, PDV missed initial commitments with Petrobras and
  80
                                                                                                                                                                                           the Ecuador agreement was first proposed in 2007.
  60

  40
                                                                                                                                                                                           BP statistical review highlights increased refinery
  20                                                                                                                                                                                       utilization as demand outpaces supply. 2011 global
   0                                                                                                                                                                                       refinery utilization increased to 81.5% from 80.2% in 2010.
        06/09/2006




                          12/08/2006




                                            06/08/2007




                                                             12/07/2007




                                                                               06/06/2008




                                                                                             12/05/2008




                                                                                                               06/05/2009




                                                                                                                                  12/04/2009




                                                                                                                                               06/04/2010




                                                                                                                                                                 12/03/2010




                                                                                                                                                                              06/03/2011




                                                                                                                                                                                           China made up the majority of both supply and demand
                                                                                                                                                                                           increase, while OECD capacity declined yet throughputs
Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                                                                                   increased for the first time since 2004.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          7
                                                                             MORGAN           STANLEY             RESEARCH

                                                                             June 10, 2011
                                                                             Refining & Marketing




Consensus EPS Revisions and Short Interest
Exhibit 14                                                                   Exhibit 16
2011 Consensus EPS Revisions (Past 3 Months)                                 2012 Consensus EPS Revisions (Past 3 Months)

                                                              ALJ, 4855.4%                                                                         DK, 86.7%



                   DK, 117.5%                                                                                                FTO, 37.3%



                 TSO, 57.8%                                                                                               WNR, 31.5%



                 FTO, 53.9%                                                                                             HOC, 24.6%


                 WNR, 40.1%                                                                                       TSO, 17.7%


                 HOC, 39.5%                                                                                    VLO, 13.7%


                 VLO, 33.0%                                                      SUN, -13.7%


 SUN, -67.0%                                                                  ALJ, -28.0%


 -1000%       0%      1000%      2000%      3000%   4000%   5000%   6000%     -40%        -20%        0%        20%        40%       60%     80%       100%
Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                             Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 15
                                                                             Exhibit 17
2011 Consensus EPS Revisions (Past 1 Month)                                  Short Interest as a % Shares Outstanding
                                                             ALJ, 120.2%
                                                                                                                                            WNR, 19.8%


                                HOC, 22.2%                                                                 TSO, 7.8%


                              FTO, 18.3%                                                              SUN, 6.3%


                             DK, 16.3%                                                           FTO, 4.4%



                             WNR, 16.1%                                                       HOC, 4.2%



                          TSO, 7.3%                                                       VLO, 2.2%


                                                                                       DK, 1.8%
                          VLO, 4.8%


                                                                                      ALJ, 1.7%
 SUN, -34.2%

                                                                               0%             5%             10%             15%           20%         25%
 -50%                0%               50%            100%           150%
                                                                             Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                           8
                                                                                 MORGAN        STANLEY       RESEARCH

                                                                                 June 10, 2011
                                                                                 Refining & Marketing




Morgan Stanley and Consensus Estimates
Exhibit 18
Morgan Stanley EPS Estimates Versus Consensus
                                            1QA        2QE      3QE      4QE                                         YoY EPS Growth
             Company                      Mar-11     Jun-11   Sep-11   Dec-11         2010A      2011E   2012E     '11 vs '10 '12 vs '11
             Refiners
             ALJ                            0.34      0.42      0.02    (0.12)        (2.41)      0.64    (0.16)         NA       -125%
              FS Consensus                  0.34      0.36      0.09    (0.12)        (2.41)      0.62     0.77          NA         25%
              MS vs. Consensus                        16%      -74%       0%                       4%    -120%
             DK                             0.31      0.70     0.36     0.16          (0.36)      1.54    1.05           NA        -32%
              FS Consensus                  0.31      0.57     0.27     0.13          (0.36)      1.34    0.95           NA        -29%
              MS vs. Consensus                        23%      37%      25%                       15%     11%
             FTO
              FS Consensus                  1.32      1.14     0.79     0.56           0.36       3.92    3.06           NA        -22%
              MS vs. Consensus                          NA       NA       NA                        NA      NA
             HOC
              FS Consensus                  1.58      2.13     1.68     1.10           1.94       6.72    6.15         246%         -8%
              MS vs. Consensus                          NA       NA       NA                        NA      NA
             SUN                           (1.01)      0.43    0.93     0.73           1.79       1.43    3.27          -20%       129%
              FS Consensus                 (1.01)      0.52    0.71     0.31           1.79       0.62    2.33          -65%       275%
              MS vs. Consensus                        -18%     30%     139%                      130%     40%
             TSO                            0.74      1.41     1.13     0.33          (0.29)      3.61     2.52          NA        -30%
              FS Consensus                  0.74      1.17     0.87     0.34          (0.29)      3.15     2.82          NA        -11%
              MS vs. Consensus                        20%      30%       -2%                      15%     -11%
             VLO                            0.18      1.53     1.24      0.49          1.62       4.05     2.97        150%        -27%
              FS Consensus                  0.18      1.42     1.18      0.63          1.62       3.63     3.75        124%          3%
              MS vs. Consensus                         7%       5%      -22%                      12%     -21%

             WNR                            0.17      1.16     0.70     0.46          (0.11)      2.50     1.98          NA        -21%
              FS Consensus                  0.17      1.01     0.72     0.50          (0.11)      2.55     2.35          NA         -8%
              MS vs. Consensus                        15%       -3%      -9%                       -2%    -16%
             Integrated Oil
             CVX                            3.09      3.72     3.68     3.66           9.39      14.15   14.52           51%         3%
               FS Consensus                 3.09      3.44     3.30     3.19           9.39      12.75   12.84           36%         1%
               MS vs. Consensus                        8%      12%      15%                       11%     13%
             COP                            1.82      2.34     2.17     2.03           5.92       8.36    8.50           41%         2%
              FS Consensus                  1.82      2.22     2.16     2.06           5.92       8.18    8.68           38%         6%
              MS vs. Consensus                         6%       0%       -1%                       2%      -2%
             XOM                            2.14      2.46     2.47     2.56           6.22       9.62   10.32           55%         7%
              FS Consensus                  2.14      2.26     2.18     2.21           6.22       8.66    8.80           39%         2%
              MS vs. Consensus                         9%      13%      16%                       11%     17%
             HES                            1.82      2.01     2.29     2.29           5.14       9.59    9.60           86%         0%
              FS Consensus                  1.82      2.08     1.99     1.92           5.14       7.74    8.12           50%         5%
              MS vs. Consensus                         -4%     15%      19%                       24%     18%
             MRO                            1.65      1.77     1.57     1.42           3.65       6.16    6.43           69%         4%
              FS Consensus                  1.65      1.76     1.52     1.37           3.65       6.25    6.21           71%        -1%
              MS vs. Consensus                         1%       3%       4%                        -1%     4%
             MUR                            1.38      1.77     2.09     2.23           4.13       7.47    9.25           81%        24%
              FS Consensus                  1.38      1.69     1.95     1.98           4.13       6.61    7.69           60%        16%
              MS vs. Consensus                         5%       7%      12%                       13%     20%
             OXY                            1.96      2.56     2.60     2.62           5.72       9.51   11.17           66%        17%
              FS Consensus                  1.96      2.15     2.17     2.19           5.72       8.53    9.64           49%        13%
              MS vs. Consensus                        19%      20%      20%                       12%     16%
Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research estimates




                                                                                                                                           9
                                                                                            MORGAN         STANLEY             RESEARCH

                                                                                            June 10, 2011
                                                                                            Refining & Marketing




Comparative Performance Table
Exhibit 19
Global Refining – Equity Performance
                          FDS              6/9/2011   52-wk    52-wk    % Below % Above         Last     Last       Last 3    Last 6   Last 12     YTD
                         Ticker    Curr.      Price    High     Low      52W-HI 52W-LO          Week    Month      Months    Months    Months      2011      2010      2009

Indices
  S&P 500                 SP50      USD    1,289.00 1,370.58 1,010.91     (6.0%)   27.5%       (1.8%)    (4.3%)     (2.4%)     4.5%     22.1%     2.5%      12.8%     23.5%
  Energy                 SPN01      USD      553.60   598.02   371.08     (7.4%)   49.2%       (0.5%)    (2.1%)     (2.6%)    13.6%     43.7%     9.2%      17.9%     11.3%
  Oil Services             OIH      USD      150.34   167.37    91.00    (10.2%)   65.2%       (0.9%)    (0.4%)     (5.0%)    10.5%     63.9%     7.0%      18.2%     61.2%
  Integrated Oil         SPN25      USD      516.39   561.29   354.31     (8.0%)   45.7%       (0.2%)    (2.6%)     (2.9%)    14.2%     38.7%    10.0%      15.4%     (4.0%)
  US Refining            SPN35      USD      505.49   599.87   306.32    (15.7%)   65.0%       (2.3%)    (7.0%)     (5.5%)    22.5%     65.0%    13.0%      42.5%    (17.8%)

Commodities
 Crude Oil (WTI)     CL00-NYME USD          101.93    114.00    71.63    (10.6%)    42.3%       1.5%     (0.6%)     (2.3%)    15.3%     37.0%     11.5%     15.1%     77.9%
 Crude Oil (Brent)   BRN00-IEPA USD         119.57    126.66    70.77     (5.6%)    69.0%       3.5%      3.2%       3.1%     31.4%     61.0%     26.2%     21.6%     70.9%
 Natural Gas (HH) NG00-NYME USD               4.67      5.19     3.43     (9.9%)    36.2%      (2.5%)    10.9%      18.9%      5.4%     (0.1%)     5.7%    (20.1%)    (2.2%)
 Gulf Coast 3:2:1               USD          21.78     29.71     3.99    (26.7%)   446.4%       2.0%    (14.0%)     10.4%    151.2%    181.9%    131.2%     85.7%    (35.8%)
 Northeast 3:2:1                USD          25.30     29.96     6.19    (15.6%)   308.5%       2.5%     (3.0%)     17.1%     85.1%    135.2%    102.3%     86.6%    (22.3%)
 West Coast 3:2:1               USD          14.09     25.99    11.42    (45.8%)    23.4%      (0.2%)   (30.1%)    (22.2%)    (4.6%)   (26.5%)    17.7%      3.8%    (59.2%)
 Mid-Continent 3:2:1            USD          26.03     33.45     6.60    (22.2%)   294.6%     (10.9%)    (7.5%)     10.0%    189.8%    150.4%    142.1%    109.6%    (55.2%)

US Refiners
 Alon USA Energy         ALJ        USD      11.04     15.58     4.77   (29.1%)    131.4%      (3.7%)   (18.8%)     6.0%     100.4%     81.0%    84.6%     (12.6%)   (25.2%)
 Delek US Holding         DK        USD      14.29     15.41     6.22    (7.3%)    129.7%      (0.8%)    (1.8%)    28.9%      90.5%    117.5%    96.3%       6.9%     28.7%
 Frontier Oil            FTO        USD      28.05     32.37    11.38   (13.3%)    146.5%      (0.1%)    (2.1%)     8.7%      66.3%    117.4%    55.7%      49.6%     (4.7%)
 Holly Corp              HOC        USD      58.32     66.55    23.95   (12.4%)    143.5%      (0.1%)    (2.0%)     8.3%      54.6%    142.0%    43.0%      59.1%     40.6%
 Sunoco                  SUN        USD      41.06     46.98    28.32   (12.6%)     45.0%       4.1%     (1.9%)    (3.0%)      4.3%     44.2%     1.9%      54.4%    (39.9%)
 Tesoro                  TSO        USD      21.47     28.74    10.40   (25.3%)    106.4%      (5.5%)   (16.8%)    (9.6%)     25.1%     96.6%    15.8%      36.8%      2.9%
 Western Refining        WNR        USD      15.10     19.50     4.01   (22.6%)    276.6%      (6.8%)   (12.1%)     1.8%      47.7%    239.3%    42.7%     124.6%    (39.3%)
 Valero Energy           VLO        USD      25.40     31.12    15.49   (18.4%)     64.0%      (4.0%)    (8.2%)    (8.3%)     21.0%     55.3%     9.9%      38.0%    (22.6%)
 CVR Energy              CVI        USD      21.03     24.38     6.71   (13.7%)    213.4%       1.7%      0.9%      7.2%      62.0%    184.2%    38.5%     121.3%     71.5%

Europe Refiners
 Petroplus Holdings    PPHN-CH      CHF      13.00     18.10     9.12    (28.2%)   42.5%       (6.1%)   (11.3%)    (10.8%)     3.4%    (21.0%)     5.5%    (35.3%)   (1.6%)
 Saras                   SRS-IT     EUR       1.59      2.09     1.31    (23.9%)   21.5%       (5.4%)    (6.8%)    (14.1%)     0.0%     (3.6%)     1.0%    (28.0%)   (8.9%)
 Neste                 NES1V-FI     EUR      11.07     14.74    10.49    (24.9%)    5.5%       (5.7%)    (9.9%)    (12.5%)    (6.3%)   (10.4%)    (7.4%)    (3.8%)   17.4%
 ESG                     ERG-IT     EUR       9.04     10.74     8.92    (15.8%)    1.3%       (3.6%)    (7.9%)     (8.7%)   (12.3%)    (4.9%)   (13.5%)     8.0%    13.7%
 Galp                   GALP-PT     EUR      14.62     15.91    11.58     (8.1%)   26.3%        0.3%      1.7%      (2.5%)     3.0%     22.9%      2.0%     18.7%    68.2%
 OMV                    OMV-AT      EUR      28.54     34.76    23.69    (17.9%)   20.4%       (0.3%)    (4.1%)     (6.4%)     0.1%     11.9%     (7.6%)     1.3%    64.0%
 MOL                    MOL-HU      HUF     23,600    25,715   16,870     (8.2%)   39.9%       (1.6%)     1.3%       1.5%     19.2%     36.9%     13.5%     22.3%    72.2%
 Tupras                TUPRS-TR      TL      42.60     53.50    28.75    (20.4%)   48.2%        1.9%    (10.1%)      6.0%      9.8%     38.5%     10.4%     29.7%    83.6%
 PKN Orlen              PKN-PL      PLN      52.65     58.85    35.06    (10.5%)   50.2%       (0.7%)    (0.1%)      4.9%      7.6%     41.9%     15.0%     34.9%    31.9%

Asia Refiners
 Reliance Industries   500325-IN INR        954.10 1,187.00    885.00   (19.6%)      7.8%       0.2%     (0.4%)     (4.0%)    (3.1%)    (5.2%)    (9.8%)    (2.9%)    77.1%
 S-oil                 010950-KR KRW       143,500 170,000     50,100   (15.6%)    186.4%      (6.8%)     2.9%      15.3%     64.9%    184.2%     55.1%     71.3%    (12.2%)
 Showa Shell             5002-JP JPY           755      912       600   (17.2%)     25.8%      (0.8%)   (14.6%)     (4.9%)     3.6%     22.4%      1.5%     (1.6%)   (13.7%)
 HPCL                  500104-IN INR        371.30   555.45    307.00   (33.2%)     20.9%      (3.7%)    (4.3%)     16.2%     (6.0%)     4.8%     (5.1%)     0.2%     43.3%
 Caltex                  CTX-AU  AUD         12.67    16.44      8.95   (22.9%)     41.6%      (8.1%)   (10.8%)    (20.1%)    (9.8%)    23.5%    (11.8%)    54.5%     29.3%
 Esso                   ESSO-TH THB          11.60    14.00      6.10   (17.1%)     90.2%      (4.9%)     0.9%      30.3%     57.8%     87.1%     45.9%     25.2%     18.7%
Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                        10
                                                                                       MORGAN                                STANLEY                               RESEARCH

                                                                                       June 10, 2011
                                                                                       Refining & Marketing




WTI Versus Waterborne Crude Oil Prices
We believe wider differentials at Cushing are secular,                                 Exhibit 21

rather than a seasonal anomaly. While we expect that                                   Front Month WTI and WTI Time spreads ($/bbl)
current record spreads of $11-20/bbl will abate, we believe                             $160


secular pressures will drive WTI-Brent differentials to average                         $140


$8-10/bbl in 2011, versus historical parity. We believe growing                         $120

production volumes moving through PADD II from Canada and                               $100

US Lower 48 unconventional oil resource will exceed takeaway                             $80

capacity into 2013 and pressure pricing at Cushing, Oklahoma.                            $60

Additional refining capacity, higher refining utilization, reversal                      $40

of pipelines, new storage capacity at Cushing and, eventually,                           $20
new pipeline capacity to the Gulf will not balance the market
                                                                                          $0
until 2013 and truck, rail, and barge will require in excess of $10




                                                                                                                                              Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar-11
                                                                                                  Jun-08



                                                                                                               Sep-08



                                                                                                                               Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                         Jun-09



                                                                                                                                                                       Sep-09



                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Dec-10
spread to arbitrage the market.
                                                                                         $2                                                                                                           First Month less Second Month

Exhibit 20                                                                               $0

Mid-Con Crude Oil Prices                                                                 ($2)

                                                                                         ($4)

                                                                                         ($6)




                                                                                                                                              Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar-11
                                                                                                 Jun-08



                                                                                                             Sep-08



                                                                                                                              Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                         Jun-09



                                                                                                                                                                       Sep-09



                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Dec-10
                                                Clearbrook

                                                                                       Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research


                                     Bakken 106.68                                     Exhibit 22
                                                                                       WTI Differential to Brent Crude Oil ($/bbl)
                           WCS 82.93                                                    $10
                           Hardisty, Canada
                                                                                         $5
                                                      WTI 102.43             Chicago
                                                                                         $0


                                                                                        ($5)
                                                     Brent 121.83
                                                                                       ($10)


                                                                                       ($15)

                                                                   Patoka              ($20)
                                                                                                                                             Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar-11
                                                                                               Jun-08



                                                                                                           Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                        Jun-09



                                                                                                                                                                       Sep-09



                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jun-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-10
                                                                                                                             Dec-08




                                    WTI 101.93                                                                                                                                                                                            Dec-10


                                                                                       Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                Cushing
                                                                                       Exhibit 23
                                                                                       WTI Forward Prices ($/bbl)
                                                Eugene Island 116.18                                                                           Jun-08             Last Week                 Last Month                    Last Year
                                                                                        110
        WTI 101.53

                                      Poseidon 113.18                   LLS 118.68      100
               Midland

         WTS 100.13                                                                      90
                                                                         St. James
                                    Beaumont              Houna              Empire
                         Maya 105.52                              Clovelly
                                                 Mars 114.38                             80
                         Mexico, LatAm
                                                                    HLS 118.18
                                                                                         70
                                                                                                    0      6            12              18       24     30        36            42  48       54       60             66            72   78         84            90
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research; prices as of June 9, 2011                                                                                                            Months

                                                                                       Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 11
                                                                                     MORGAN          STANLEY         RESEARCH

                                                                                     June 10, 2011
                                                                                     Refining & Marketing




Weekly DOE Petroleum Status Report
Exhibit 24
Crude Oil and Refined Product Stats, Week Ending June 3
                     Crude Oil Inventories (MMbbl)                     Crude Oil Flows (mbpd)                         Refinery Inputs (mbpd)
                                                                                    Oil  Domestic                      Crude Oil Utlization       Utlization
                     This Wk. Last Wk.            Chg %                       Imports Production                           Inputs         (%)      Last Wk.
PADD 1                   13.9    13.6              2.2%           PADD 1        1,098                       PADD 1         1,136        71.0           73.4
PADD 2                 100.8    102.8             -2.0%           PADD 2        1,278                       PADD 2         3,286        89.1           91.3
PADD 3                 183.2    185.9             -1.5%           PADD 3        4,702                       PADD 3         7,667        90.2           89.2
PADD 4                   15.2    15.9             -4.0%           PADD 4          410                       PADD 4           573        92.0           89.4
PADD 5                   55.9    55.6              0.5%           PADD 5        1,112                       PADD 5         2,449        84.1           76.3
Total US               369.0    373.8             -1.3%           Total US      8,600       5,633           Total US      15,112        87.2           86.0
Cushing, OK              38.9    39.9             -2.5%           Last Week     9,518       5,609           Last Week     14,851        86.0
SPR                    726.5    726.5              0.0%           Last Year     9,535       5,445           Last Year     15,187        89.1

                                                              Crude and Refined Product Implied Demand (mbpd)
                         Finished                 Reform-                     Total       Total                         > 15 ppm                  Propane,
                          Motor                    ulated     Conventional  Kerosene   Distillate   < 15 ppm            Distillate    Residual   Propylene,
               Crude Oil Gasoline                 Gasoline     Gasoline      Jet Fuel     Fuel    Distillate Fuel          Fuel       Fuel Oil   Other Oils
Total US        14,925    9,363                    2,911         6,452        1,491      4,473        4,068                404          964         945
Vs. Last Week    1.4%     -2.8%                    -5.5%         -1.5%        7.0%       -1.0%        -1.7%               6.6%         2.9%        -2.4%
Vs. Last Month   6.4%      3.0%                    -2.4%          5.7%        5.7%        0.1%         3.0%              -22.3%        -4.7%       -6.9%
Vs. Last Year   -2.1%      1.5%                    -0.3%          2.4%        7.0%        2.8%         1.3%               19.2%        -5.7%       -5.3%
                                                                       Refined Product Production (mbpd)
                Total             Reform-         Conven-                       Total    <15 ppm                        >500 ppm
                Motor              ulated          tional    Total Kerosene Distillate   Distillate 15-500 ppm           Distillate   Residual   Propane,
               Gasoline           Gasoline        Gasoline      Jet Fuel        Fuel       Fuel     Distillate Fuel        Fuel       Fuel Oil   Propylene
Total US        9,446              2,907           6,287          1,511        4,434      3,939           231               263         507        1,147
Vs. Last Week   0.1%               -5.7%           -3.2%          2.1%          4.2%      5.5%          27.6%            -22.9%        -7.0%       6.9%
Vs. Last Month  6.4%               -1.9%            5.2%         11.0%          6.0%      5.7%          22.9%             -2.2%        -9.1%       7.9%
Vs. Last Year   2.4%               0.0%             2.6%          8.6%          1.3%      7.2%         -48.2%              1.2%        -8.5%       4.2%
                                                                         Refined Product Stocks (MMbbl)
                 Total            Finished Gasoline                              Total   <15 ppm                        >500 ppm                  Propane,
                Motor               Motor   Blending         Total Kerosene Distillate    Distillate 15-500 ppm          Distillate   Residual   Propylene,
               Gasoline           Gasoline Component            Jet Fuel         Fuel       Fuel     Distillate Fuel       Fuel       Fuel Oil   Other Oils
Total US        214.5                57.5    157.0                 40.9         140.9       99.9            9.9            31.2          37.3      240.7
Vs. Last Week   1.0%                2.2%      0.6%                2.1%           0.6%       1.0%          6.6%            -2.4%         -1.9%       1.6%
Vs. Last Month  4.2%                3.1%      4.6%                2.5%          -2.3%      -3.3%          5.2%            -1.4%         -0.9%       5.1%
Vs. Last Year   -2.0%              -25.5%    10.7%               -8.7%          -9.0%       3.9%        -31.5%           -29.5%        -16.0%      -2.8%
                                                                         Refined Product Imports (mbpd)
                 Total            Finished Gasoline                              Total    <15 ppm                       >500 ppm                  Propane,
                Motor              Motor    Blending         Total Kerosene Distillate    Distillate 15-500 ppm          Distillate   Residual   Propylene,
               Gasoline           Gasoline Component            Jet Fuel         Fuel        Fuel    Distillate Fuel       Fuel       Fuel Oil   Other Oils
Total US        1,158                90      1,068                 98            155         122            0              33           352         1,004
Vs. Last Week   -6.5%             -44.8%     -0.7%               55.6%         26.0%       74.3%       -100.0%           -28.3%        -5.9%       -13.5%
Vs. Last Month  -4.5%             -16.7%     -3.3%               36.1%          -6.6%      -10.3%          NM             10.0%        -2.2%        24.3%
Vs. Last Year   47.0%             181.3%     41.3%               53.1%         -34.3%       19.6%      -100.0%           -72.7%        44.3%        47.0%

                                                         Refined Product Exports (Mbbl)*
                           Finished               Distillate                   Residual  Propane,
                           Gasoline                 Fuel          Jet Fuel       Fuel    Propylene      Other Oils
Total US                     200                    671             72           380       120            714
Vs. Last Month              -23.7%                 -4.1%           -5.3%        -8.7%     34.8%          10.7%
Vs. Last Year               29.0%                  49.1%           22.0%        -3.8%     66.7%          15.2%

*exports reported second week of each month and estimated by the DOE
Source: EIA, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                         12
                                                                                                              MORGAN               STANLEY           RESEARCH

                                                                                                              June 10, 2011
                                                                                                              Refining & Marketing




Weekly Crack Spread Performance
Exhibit 25
Weekly Refining Indicators Performance
                                                    Weekly Average                         Quarterly Average              Rolling                               % Change
                                            This Wk    Last Wk     Last Yr              QTD     Last Q    Last Yr.         5 Year               This Week vs.                 QTD vs.
                                            9-Jun-11  2-Jun-11    9-Jun-10              2Q11     1Q11      2Q10           Average        Last Wk Last Yr. Hist. Avg   1Q11     2Q10   Hist. Avg
3-2-1 Refining Margins ($/bbl)
  US Gulf Coast (WTI)                           21.78         21.88          8.05        22.55       17.18        8.67          9.84          0%    171%     121%       31%     160%       129%
  US Gulf Coast (LLS)                            5.81         10.43          5.01         7.88        4.71        5.31          6.97        -44%     16%     -17%       67%      48%        13%
  US Northeast (WTI)*                           25.30         25.93         10.89        24.43       19.14       10.92         12.01         -2%    132%     111%       28%     124%       103%
  US West Coast (ANS)                           14.09         13.90         19.93        17.28       17.78       16.87         17.97          1%    -29%     -22%       -3%       2%        -4%
  US Mid-Continent (WTI)*                       26.03         29.25         10.80        26.28       19.65       11.44         12.71        -11%    141%     105%       34%     130%       107%
  Northwest Europe (Brent)                       8.14         10.43         11.01        10.22        5.89        9.76          9.83        -22%    -26%     -17%       74%       5%         4%
  Singapore (Dubai)                             16.90         16.73         10.41        18.52       15.32       11.19         14.56          1%     62%      16%       21%      65%        27%
Global Product Cracks ($/bbl)
  US Avg. Gasoline (WTI)                        22.89         27.16         11.58        27.81       16.47       11.07          11.40       -16%     98%     101%       69%      151%      144%
  US Avg. Diesel (WTI)                          31.59         29.69         13.16        29.60       25.21       13.16          17.22         6%    140%      83%       17%      125%       72%
  US Avg. Fuel Oil (WTI)                         7.82          4.38         (6.30)        2.85        1.38       (6.93)        (11.49)       78%   -224%    -168%      107%     -141%     -125%
  NW Europe Gasoline (Brent)                     5.78          9.30          9.20        10.81        2.15        7.73           6.11       -38%    -37%      -5%      403%       40%       77%
  NW Europe Diesel (Brent)                      14.44         13.89         13.78        15.81       16.28       12.67          16.61         4%      5%     -13%       -3%       25%       -5%
  NW Europe Gas Oil (Brent)                      9.57          9.09         11.44        11.14       11.25        9.64          13.68         5%    -16%     -30%       -1%       16%      -19%
  NW Europe Fuel Oil (Brent)                   (17.45)       (18.76)        (8.14)      (16.88)     (18.95)     (10.99)        (17.10)       -7%    114%       2%      -11%       54%       -1%
  Singapore Gasoline (Dubai)                    15.73         16.03         10.43        19.70       13.73       11.06          14.06        -2%     51%      12%       44%       78%       40%
  Singapore Naptha (Dubai)                     (11.89)        (8.85)        (0.17)       (6.22)      (4.73)      (1.35)         (2.42)       34%     NM      391%       32%      361%      157%
  Singapore Fuel Oil (Dubai)                    (7.46)        (9.37)        (7.46)       (9.41)     (10.02)      (8.13)        (10.41)      -20%      0%     -28%       -6%       16%      -10%
  Ethanol Crush Margin ($/gal)                  (0.09)        (0.10)         0.33        (0.06)      (0.01)       0.29           0.49       -14%   -126%    -118%      416%     -121%     -112%
Crude Oil Differentials
  US-Europe (WTI/Brent)                        (16.11)       (14.49)         0.22       (13.25)     (10.75)      (0.75)        (0.66)       11%      NM       NM        23%       NM        NM
  Sweet-Sour Spread (WTI/WTS)                    1.86          2.15          2.03         2.78        4.09        1.85          3.37       -13%      -8%     -45%      -32%       50%      -18%
  Light-Heavy Spread (WTI/Maya)                 (3.05)        (1.26)         8.93         0.63        4.68        9.77         10.53       142%    -134%    -129%      -86%      -94%      -94%
  Light-Canadian Spread (WTI/WCS)*              20.18         18.00         11.69        16.61       22.03       13.83         17.72        12%      73%      14%      -25%       20%       -6%
  US-Asia Spread (WTI/Dubai)                    (8.64)        (8.34)        (1.04)       (6.55)      (6.35)      (0.06)         2.20         4%      NM     -493%        3%       NM      -398%
Commodity Prices
  WTI                                          100.35        100.82         72.42       103.49       94.46       77.88         78.54         0%      39%      28%       10%      33%        32%
  Brent                                        116.46        115.31         72.20       116.79      105.21       78.63         79.21         1%      61%      47%       11%      49%        47%
  Henry Hub Nautral Gas ($/Mcf)                  4.80          4.48          4.66         4.27        4.18        4.33          5.92         7%       3%     -19%        2%      -1%       -28%
*Rolling 5-Year Average includes October 2006 Through Present; Light-Canadian spread includes Edmonton Lloyd before May 2008

Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 26
Refining Exposure by Company
                                           R&M                Total                                          Refining Exposure
                                         Contrib.           Capacity          PADD 1      PADD 2     PADD 3      PADD 4      PADD 5
Company           Ticker                2011e EPS            (Mbpd)         (Northeast) (Mid-Con) (Gulf Coast) (Rockies) (West Coast) Europe                                  Asia       Other
Refiners
 Alon USA Energy   ALJ                           100%               247                 -                 -                62%                 -            38%          -           -       -
 Delek US Holding   DK                           100%               140                 -                 -               100%                 -              -          -           -       -
 Frontier Oil      FTO                             ++               182                 -               71%                  -               29%              -          -           -       -
 Holly Corp        HOC                             ++               256                 -               49%                39%               12%              -          -           -       -
 Sunoco            SUN                            10%               505              100%                 -                  -                 -              -          -           -       -
 Tesoro            TSO                           100%               665                 -               17%                  -                 -            68%          -           -     14%
 Valero Energy     VLO                           100%             2,640                 -               11%                69%                 -            12%          -           -      9%
 Western Refining WNR                            100%               154                 -                 -               100%                 -              -          -           -       -

Integrated Oil Companies
  Chevron Corp      CVX                            8%             2,160                 4%                -                15%                2%            24%       10%       35%         8%
  ConocoPhillips    COP                           12%             2,437                17%              15%                33%                2%            15%       14%        3%          -
  ExxonMobil        XOM                            9%             6,423                16%               5%                24%                 -             2%       27%       29%        13%
  Hess Corp         HES                            7%               245                29%                -                  -                 -              -         -         -        71%
  Marathon Oil      MRO                           35%             1,142                  -              53%                47%                 -              -         -         -          -
  Murphy Oil        MUR                           10%               295                  -              12%                42%                 -              -       46%         -          -
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates, VLO/CVX not pro-forma for pending Pembroke sale




                                                                                                                                                                                            13
                                                                                                                                                                                           MORGAN                             STANLEY                                    RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                           June 10, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                           Refining & Marketing




Refining Sector: Investment Thesis
Industry View: Attractive: We believe the US refining                                                                                                                                      Exhibit 28

equities have attractive upside vs. the market on a 12-month                                                                                                                               YTD R&M Stock Performance
basis. Our positive view is less a macro call on global cracks
spreads and product demand and more a series of stock calls                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           DK, 96.3%
within the group and crude feedstock issue (supply). We
believe SUN restructuring with upside event driven catalysts.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ALJ, 84.6%
We prefer all refiners with exposure to Mid-con pricing
differentials. We expect the US unconventional oil boom                                                                                                                                                                                                                            FTO, 55.7%
(centered in Mid-Con) and Canadian growth will create storage
issues at Cushing, OK until new pipeline capacity is                                                                                                                                                                                                                 HOC, 43.0%
constructed mid-2013. Refiners exposed to WTI, WTI-linked
crude or Canadian heavy-light differentials will benefit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     WNR, 42.7%
significantly. We expect differentials to average $8/bbl in 2011
and widen in 2012 where we believe in excess of 350kbpd will
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              TSO, 15.8%
exceed pipeline, truck, rail and barge potential.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Refining,
Exhibit 27                                                                                                                                                                                                                    13.0%
Energy Sector and Market YTD Performance
  14%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  VLO, 9.9%
                        13.0%

  12%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Energy, 9.2%
                                                           10.0%
  10%
                                                                                          8.9%
                                                                                                                              7.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            S&P 500,
   8%                                                                                                                                                                                                        2.5%

   6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          SUN, 1.9%
   4%
                                                                                                                                                               2.5%
   2%                                                                                                                                                                                           0%                           20%                        40%                        60%                      80%                     100%                    120%

   0%                                                                                                                                                                                      Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research
                       Refining                    Integrated                             E&P                        Oil Services                             S&P 500

Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 29                                                                                                                                                                                 Exhibit 30
Refining Coverage: EV / NTM Consensus EBITDA                                                                                                                                               Refining Coverage: EV / Complexity Barrel
  10.0x                                                                                                                                                                                     $1,500

   9.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                            $1,250
   8.0x

   7.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                            $1,000
   6.0x

   5.0x                                                                                                                                                                                      $750

   4.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                             $500
   3.0x

   2.0x                                                                                                                                                                                      $250

   1.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                               $0
   0.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1/30/1998

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1/29/1999

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1/31/2000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1/31/2001

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1/31/2002

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1/31/2003

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1/30/2004

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1/31/2005

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1/31/2006

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1/31/2007

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1/31/2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1/30/2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1/29/2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1/30/2011
          06/10/2004


                         01/06/2005


                                      08/04/2005


                                                   03/02/2006


                                                                09/28/2006


                                                                             04/26/2007


                                                                                           11/21/2007


                                                                                                        06/19/2008


                                                                                                                       01/15/2009


                                                                                                                                    08/13/2009


                                                                                                                                                 03/11/2010


                                                                                                                                                                 10/07/2010


                                                                                                                                                                              05/05/2011




                                                                                                                                                                                           Source: FactSet, Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        14
                                                                                                    MORGAN                               STANLEY                                         RESEARCH

                                                                                                    June 10, 2011
                                                                                                    Refining & Marketing




Investment Themes in Refining
1. Mid-Con Refining: Structural widening of          WTI-Brent spread to remain wide through 2012
WTI vs. waterborne crudes lead to margin             Refiners with access to WTI/WTI-linked crude oil will benefit
upside for refiners with access to advantaged          $16                                                        Brent-WTI                                Average                        MS 2011 Forecast

crude oils.                                            $14

                                                       $12
Thesis: Growing crude production from Canada           $10

and Lower 48 unconventional resource will               $8

pressure storage constraints at Cushing,                $6

Oklahoma, causing WTI to trade at a discount to         $4

Brent and waterborne crude oils. Approximately          $2

20% of US refining capacity can process                 $0


advantaged crude oils, capturing the differential       ($2)

                                                        ($4)
and directly increasing gross margins.
                                                        ($6)                               Mar-07




                                                                                                                                Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Mar-11
                                                               Jun-06

                                                                         Sep-06

                                                                                  Dec-06




                                                                                                     Jun-07

                                                                                                              Sep-07

                                                                                                                       Dec-07




                                                                                                                                         Jun-08

                                                                                                                                                  Sep-08

                                                                                                                                                             Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                                                Jun-09

                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jun-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sep-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec-10
Investment Ideas: WNR, MRO
                                                     Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research estimates


2. Restructuring narrows discounts to SOTP           Positive market reception to restructuring stories
                                                     Deleveraging and high-grading portfolios increases valuation
Thesis: Companies can reduce persistent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Date                        Relative
discount to NAV’s by selling or spinning off         Company          Actions Taken                                                                                                                                  Started                    Performance*
assets. Heightened interest mainly from National                      Intent to sell $10B in assets. Reduced Lukoil
                                                     ConocoPhillips   stake, sold Syncrude interest, sold CFJ Properties                                                                                               Oct-09                            16%
Oil Companies for upstream assets, institutional                      (marketing assets)
investor for midstream assets, and private equity                     Closures and sales of refineries and announced
                                                     Sunoco           divestiture of noncore assets (chemicals, logistics,                                                                                            Jun-09                             7%
for downstream assets have allowed companies
                                                                      and Suncoke)
to offload noncore assets. The resulting                              New CEO institutes corporate strategy and plans
                                                     Tesoro                                                                                                                                                           May-10                             28%
high-graded portfolios will receive higher                            IPO for midstream MLP
                                                                      Plans to exit Refining business and sell UK
valuations and companies can return cash to          Murphy Oil                                                                                                                                                         Jul-10                           -9%
                                                                      marketing assets
shareholders or pay down debt.                       Western Refining
                                                                      Shutdown of Yorktown refinery and evaluation of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Aug-10                             150%
                                                                      strategic alternatives
                                                     Marathon Oil     Spin off of downstream assets                                                                                                                   Jan-11                             28%
Investment Ideas: SUN, WNR, MRO                      Average Performance                                                                                                                                                                                 37%
                                                     *indicates performance versus subsector since date started
                                                     Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research


3. Distillation Utilization Steadily Increasing      Tightening Distillate Market Through 2013
Through 2015 With Supply Risks Balanced.             Global demand growth for diesel, gasoil, and naphtha products
                                                      93%
Thesis: Secular demand remains for middle
distillates as emerging market transportation         92%

growth and industrialization will favor diesel,       91%

gasoil, and naphtha fuels over gasoline. The          90%
demand trend favors high complexity refiners, as
                                                      89%
middle distillate is the most difficult product to
produce from a barrel of crude oil.                   88%


                                                      87%
Investment Ideas: VLO
                                                      86%


                                                      85%
                                                                        2004               2005               2006                 2007                    2008                2009               2010E              2011E             2012E

                                                     Source: IEA, Morgan Stanley Research estimates




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                15
                                                                                         MORGAN          STANLEY           RESEARCH

                                                                                         June 10, 2011
                                                                                         Refining & Marketing




Independent Refiners: Investment Thesis, Catalysts and Risks
       Investment Thesis                                                                   Potential Catalysts                      Risks
 ALJ   Big Spring refinery runs advantaged WTS crude oil, while low complexity             California upside in 2012 from           Alon suggested it is still open to
(UW)   Krotz Spring runs expensive LLS crude. Highest debt leverage in our                 Bakersfield online and higher realized   M&A, with a possible dilutive or
       coverage; weak earnings outlook challenges prospect of debt reduction.              margins from hydrocracker at             debt-heavy acquisition. Few
       California refinery (Paramount) currently runs at below 40% utilization and         Paramount. Demand increases for          refining assets makes ALJ
       provides limited future earnings. Retail’s contribution to earnings is positive     asphalt from major contract markets      exposed to unexpected outage,
       to help offset less profitable refining.                                            in CA and TX. Spinout of retail          with a poor operating history.
                                                                                           business could unlock value with
                                                                                           proceeds used to reduce leverage.
 DK    Operates in refinery in Tyler, Texas, and recently acquired El Dorado,              Widening of the sweet-sour spread.       Delek suggested it is still open to
(EW)   Arkansas refinery with exposure to advantaged Mid-Con crudes and                    Potential spinout of the retail          M&A, with a possible dilutive or
       sweet-sour differential. El Dorado refinery acquisition reduces risks               business could unlock value, using       debt-heavy acquisition. Continued
       associated with a single refining asset. Largest relative retail exposure of        proceeds to fuel refining growth.        poor margins in the Gulf Coast and
       the independent refiners provides greater earnings stability over time, but                                                  narrow sweet-sour spreads.
       lower upside leverage to refining margins.                                                                                   Parent buys in the public float.

SUN    SUN typically perceived as disadvantaged Northeast refiner yet its 2012E            Filing the SunCoke S-1 and eventual      Management’s timing in unlocking
(OW)   EPS exposure is less than 10%. Majority of earnings are levered to growth           spin-off. Vansant resource reserve       value of non-refining assets is
       businesses including Coke, logistics and retail. Management has moved to            report and/or monetization of            delayed. Worse performance in
       “unlock” value by monetizing SunCoke and continues to explore other                 Vansant metallurgical coal mine.         Northeast refining from higher
       alternatives for asset sales and spin offs.                                         Growth in the MLP business with          gasoline imports and poor margins
                                                                                           further drop downs and monetization      due to waterborne crude inputs
                                                                                           of undervalued GP units in SXL.          and lower complexity.
                                                                                           Special dividend post SunCoke spin.

TSO    Primarily a West Coast refiner with five assets on the West Coast in Hawaii.        Hawaii PUC restructures fuel oil         West Coast recovery remains
(EW)   Moderate exposure to Mid-Con differentials (17%) at two Mid-Con assets in           contracts. Economic improvement in       evasive with low utilization rates.
       Salt Lake and Mandan that run advantaged local crudes (Black Wax and                California will drive refined product    Anacortes incident is prolonged
       Bakken). Asset restructuring will monetize non-core assets and avail higher         demand data. Filing revised TLLP         and causes further investigations
       MLP multiple in TLLP IPO in early 2Q11. California and Mid-con regions are          S-1, subsequent IPO and potential        in remaining assets in portfolio.
       more structurally protected from imports.                                           2011 drop-downs in to TLLP.              Punitive environmental regulations
                                                                                                                                    in California

VLO    Year-on-year portfolio high grades (Del City and Paulsboro sales) and               Asset sales with completion of the       Most susceptible to weakening
(EW)   reduced cost structure drive significant, commodity-agnostic levered                Aruba positive as total value likely     global refining margins. Increased
       earnings improvements in 2011-2012. Moderate exposure to Mid-Con                    ~$600MM. Acquisition funded by           PADD 2 refining throughputs back
       differentials (12%) but could benefit from heavy and sour crude oils at Gulf        cash at low complexity barrel price to   out PADD 3 inputs and reduce
       Coast refineries that export ~40% of refined product to South America.              be accretive and alleviate fears of      Gulf Coast refining margins.
       Strong balance sheet with over $3 Bn of cash to fund future capex.                  overpaying. Positive earnings            Narrowing heavy-light and
       Diversity, size and scale of portfolio as the largest US Independent refiner        revisions as portfolio improvements      sweet-sour spreads.
       provide leverage to a US recovery.                                                  reflected in 2011E.

WNR    Deleveraging story with up to $560MM of potential asset sales in 2011 to            Announcement of a formal M&A             Pipeline reversals occur more
(OW)   support a capital restructuring, debt reduction and removal of covenant             process and ultimate sale of             quickly than expected, eliminating
       heavy, debt obligations. Emerging as a niche refiner in the Southwest with          midstream assets: (1) Yorktown           WTI-linked vs. waterborne crude
       ability to run 100% WTI/WTI-linked crude slate. El Paso is a simple refiner         terminal and storage, and (2)            differentials and Mid-Con benefits.
       with sweet crude intake from West Texas (Permian basin) supporting                  Southwest terminal, storage, asphalt     Management does not execute
       margin-rich markets in Arizona, New Mexico and Juarez, Mexico. Yorktown             terminal and pipelines. Higher           restructuring of the company.
       refinery closure removes operating loss and allows for monetization of              realized margin benefit from             WNR issues equity that dilutes
       inventory and potential MLP of storage and terminal assets                          WTI-linked crudes vs. waterborne         existing shareholders. Debt
                                                                                           crudes.                                  covenant issues from high
                                                                                                                                    leverage and high fixed charges.




                                                                                                                                                                         16
                                                                                    MORGAN               STANLEY         RESEARCH

                                                                                    June 10, 2011
                                                                                    Refining & Marketing




Morgan Stanley Commodity Forecasts
Exhibit 31                                                                          Exhibit 32
Morgan Stanley Base Commodity Forecasts                                             2011 Crack Spread Forecast
  WTI Crude            Q1          Q2             Q3         Q4          Annual                                        Q1A         Q2E        Q3E        Q4E       Annual
    2008             $97.82      $123.80        $118.22    $59.08        $99.73     Blended Cracks
    2009             $43.31      $59.79         $68.24     $76.13        $61.87     Gulf Coast 5-3-2 (LLS)         $5.37         $8.35      $5.17      $4.14        $5.76
    2010             $78.88      $78.00         $76.21     $85.24        $79.58     Gulf Coast 3-2-1 (LLS)         $4.70         $8.18      $5.00      $4.00        $5.47
   2011E             $94.26      $101.02        $108.23    $107.35       $102.72    Gulf Coast 2-1-1 (LLS)         $6.37         $8.60      $5.43      $4.35        $6.19
                                                                                    Gulf Coast 5-3-2 (WTI)        $18.56        $24.02     $13.17     $12.14       $16.97
   2012E             $104.69     $104.69        $104.69    $104.69       $104.69
                                                                                    Gulf Coast 3-2-1 (WTI)        $17.90        $23.85     $13.00     $12.00       $16.69
  Long-term          $88.00       $88.00         $88.00        $88.00    $88.00     Gulf Coast 2-1-1 (WTI)        $19.57        $24.27     $13.43     $12.35       $17.40
                                                                                    NY 2-1-1 (Brent)               $9.06        $12.79      $7.12      $5.69        $8.67
 Brent Crude           Q1          Q2             Q3         Q4          Annual
                                                                                    Northeast 6-3-2-1 (Brent)      $7.78        $10.64      $5.55      $4.44        $7.10
     2008            $96.48      $122.20        $115.91    $56.23        $97.71                                   $17.50        $18.06     $16.91     $13.53       $16.50
                                                                                    West Coast 3-2-1 (ANS)
     2009            $45.04      $59.28         $68.25     $74.93        $61.88     USWC ANS 4-3-1 (ANS)          $17.06        $17.63     $16.89     $13.51       $16.27
     2010            $76.78      $79.00         $76.41     $86.93        $79.78     Pacific NW 5-3-1-1 (ANS)      $15.36        $18.15     $15.11     $12.09       $15.18
    2011E            $104.91     $116.70        $116.23    $115.35       $113.30    Midcon 3-2-1 (WTI)            $19.08        $26.54     $15.15     $13.98       $18.69
    2012E            $112.69     $112.69        $112.69    $112.69       $112.69    Midcon 2-1-1 (WTI)            $20.59        $26.75     $16.10     $14.86       $19.58
                                                                                    Midcon 6-3-2-1 (WTI)          $15.28        $21.07      $9.42      $8.70       $13.62
  Long-term          $90.00       $90.00         $90.00        $90.00    $90.00
                                                                                    Differentials
 Natural Gas           Q1           Q2            Q3            Q4       Annual     LLS less Maya                  $18.02        $16.20     $16.50     $16.50      $16.80
    2008              $8.74       $11.47         $8.99         $6.40      $8.90     LLS less Mars                   $5.71         $7.10      $5.00      $5.00       $5.70
                                                                                    LLS less WTI                   $13.19        $15.68      $8.00      $8.00      $11.22
    2009              $4.47        $3.81         $3.44         $4.93      $4.16
                                                                                    WTI less WTS                    $4.23         $2.91      $3.00      $3.00       $3.29
    2010              $5.30        $4.40         $4.38         $3.80      $4.47
                                                                                    WTI less Lloyd WCS             $22.17        $16.99     $15.00     $15.00      $17.29
   2011E              $4.20        $4.45         $4.62         $4.86      $4.53
                                                                                    KERN River less ANS           ($11.43)      ($10.00)   ($10.00)   ($10.00)    ($10.36)
   2012E              $5.14        $4.94         $5.03         $5.12      $5.06
                                                                                    WTI less ANS                   ($7.04)      ($11.48)     $3.00      $3.00      ($3.13)
  Long-term           $5.50           $5.50      $5.50         $5.50      $5.50     DURI less ANS                   $2.41        ($4.00)    ($4.00)    ($4.00)     ($2.40)
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research estimates                                Tapis less ANS                  $8.29         $5.00      $5.00      $5.00       $5.82
                                                                                    ANS less Mars                  ($0.44)        $3.01      $1.00      $1.00       $1.14
                                                                                    ANS less Maya                  $11.87        $12.06      $8.00      $8.00       $9.98
                                                                                    Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates




Exhibit 33                                                                          Exhibit 34
Crude Forecast vs. Forward Curve                                                    Natural Gas Forecast vs. Forward Curve
                     Forward Cruve               MS Forecast            Consensus    $7                  Forward Cruve              MS Forecast              Consensus
 $130
 $120                                                                                $6
 $110
                                                                                     $5
 $100
  $90                                                                                $4
  $80
                                                                                     $3
  $70
                                                                                                 2010A         2011E            2012E          2013E             2014E
             2010A            2011E           2012E       2013E          2014E
                                                                                    Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research estimates




                                                                                                                                                                         17
                                                                                                                                             MORGAN                       STANLEY                            RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                             June 10, 2011
                                                                                                                                             Refining & Marketing




Global Economic & Leading Indicators
Exhibit 35
Morgan Stanley GDP Estimates (YoY Change)
       5.0%                                                                                              US GDP (yoy % change)             4.0%                                                                                     EMU GDP (yoy % change)
                                                                                                                                                                                      3.1%
                3.9%                                                                                                                                                                                  2.8%
       4.0%                                                                                                                                3.0%
                           3.1%                                                                                                  3.2%                    1.9%         1.8%                                                                                 2.0%
                                        2.8%                                                              2.9%                             2.0%                                                                                                 1.7%
       3.0%                                                                                                           2.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1.2%
                                                            2.0%                                                                           1.0%
       2.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                           0.4%
                                                                                                                                           0.0%
       1.0%
                                                                            0.0%                                                           -1.0%
       0.0%
                                                                                                                                           -2.0%
    -1.0%
                                                                                                                                           -3.0%
    -2.0%                                                                                                                                  -4.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  -4.0%
    -3.0%                                                                                   -2.6%                                          -5.0%
                2004        2005        2006                2007            2008             2009         2010        2011E      2012E                    2004        2005            2006            2007            2008        2009           2010      2011E     2012E

   14.0%                                                                                       China GDP (yoy % change)                   12.0%                                                                                               India GDP (yoy % change)
                                                            13.0%
                                      11.6%                                                                                                                                           9.9%
   12.0%                                                                                                                                  10.0%                                                       9.3%
                                                                                                                                                                    9.1%
                10.1%    10.4%                                                                             10.3%                                                                                                                                 8.8%                 8.7%
   10.0%                                                                    9.6%
                                                                                             9.1%                      9.0%       9.0%    8.0%                                                                        7.5%                                  7.7%
                                                                                                                                                       7.0%                                                                       7.2%
    8.0%
                                                                                                                                          6.0%
    6.0%
                                                                                                                                          4.0%
    4.0%

    2.0%                                                                                                                                  2.0%


    0.0%                                                                                                                                  0.0%
                2004       2005             2006            2007            2008             2009          2010       2011E       2012E                2004         2005              2006            2007            2008        2009           2010      2011E     2012E


Source: Morgan Stanley Research




Exhibit 36                                                                                                                                   Exhibit 37
ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=100)                                                                                                         US Industrial Production Index (2007=100)
 150                                                                                                                                          105



                                                                                                                                              100
 140


                                                                                                                                                  95
 130

                                                                                                                                                  90

 120
                                                                                                                                                  85


 110
                                                                                                                                                  80


 100                                                                                                                                              75
       Jun-01



                Jun-02



                         Jun-03



                                   Jun-04



                                                   Jun-05



                                                                   Jun-06



                                                                                   Jun-07



                                                                                                Jun-08



                                                                                                             Jun-09



                                                                                                                        Jun-10




                                                                                                                                                       Jul-01



                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-02



                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-03



                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-04



                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-05



                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-06



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-10




Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                                   Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               18
                                                                               MORGAN                                  STANLEY                                       RESEARCH

                                                                               June 10, 2011
                                                                               Refining & Marketing




 Crude Oil Markets
Exhibit 38                                                                     Exhibit 39
Global Crude Oil Prices                                                        5-Year WTI Crude Oil Prices ($/bbl)
                                     This Week        Last Week    Last Year      $160

(US$/bbl)                              9-Jun-11         2-Jun-11    9-Jun-10                                                                                                                                          12-Month Strip                                Front Month
                                                                                  $140
Global Benchmarks
  WTI Cushing                            $101.93        $100.40      $74.36       $120

  Dated Brent                            $119.35        $115.79      $73.42
                                                                                  $100
  Tapis                                  $127.47        $122.81      $74.02
  Bonny Light                            $121.76        $117.84      $73.87        $80

  Dubai Fateh                            $111.51        $108.47      $71.60        $60
Futures
  NYMEX front month                      $101.93        $100.40      $74.38        $40

  ICE Brent front month                  $119.57        $115.54      $74.27        $20
North Am Spot Crudes
                                                                                    $0
  LLS St James                           $118.68        $117.05      $77.21




                                                                                                                       Mar-07




                                                                                                                                                           Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mar-11
                                                                                         Jun-06

                                                                                                   Sep-06

                                                                                                              Dec-06



                                                                                                                                Jun-07

                                                                                                                                         Sep-07

                                                                                                                                                  Dec-07



                                                                                                                                                                     Jun-08

                                                                                                                                                                              Sep-08

                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jun-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dec-10
  Syncrude Sweet                         $111.68        $108.90      $71.96
  Alaska North Slope                     $114.18        $112.65      $73.86
  WTS Midland                            $100.13         $98.45      $72.26    Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
  Mars Blend                             $114.38        $111.15      $73.26
  Venezuela                              $103.01        $100.70      $64.77    Exhibit 40
  Maya                                   $105.52        $102.28      $63.94    North American Crude Differentials to WTI ($/bbl)
  Western Canadian Select                 $82.93         $79.40      $62.11
                                                                                $20.00               +1 Standard Deviation                             -1 Standard Deviation                             Current Differential                   Trailing 2 Yr Avg
European Spot Crudes
  Oseberg                                $121.70        $118.09      $74.12     $15.00
  Brent                                  $120.15        $116.49      $73.47
  Flotta                                 $117.79        $114.13      $71.04     $10.00
Middle East Spot Crudes
  Murbian                                $116.28        $113.32      $72.68      $5.00
  Oman                                   $111.97        $108.95      $71.92
  Arab Light                             $102.90        $101.45      $75.09      $0.00
  Arab Medium                            $100.20         $98.75      $73.29
  Arab Heavy                              $97.65         $96.20      $71.74      ($5.00)
African Spot Crudes
  Algeria Saharan                        $120.97        $117.05      $72.66     ($10.00)
  Nigeria Brass River                    $119.20        $115.26      $72.39                       Light LA Sweet Syncrude Sweet Alaska N Slope                                                                      WTS Midland                          Mars Blend

  Angola Cabinda                         $118.43        $114.51      $72.00    Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
  Suez Blend                             $113.99        $110.02      $69.18
Asian Spot Crudes                                                              Exhibit 41
  Papua New Guinea                       $125.97        $121.81      $73.02    Global Crude Differentials to Brent ($/bbl)
  Australia Gippsland                    $123.97        $119.81      $71.72
                                                                                $15.00                      +1 Standard Deviation                          -1 Standard Deviation                           Current Differential                          Trailing 2 Yr Avg
  Indonesia Minas                        $125.34        $122.77      $74.02
Global Refining Margins                                                         $10.00
  USGC (WTI)                                 $22.89      $21.15       $7.09
                                                                                 $5.00
  NWE (Brent)                                 $6.16       $9.91       $9.60
  Singapore (Tapis)                           $1.28       $1.14       $8.53      $0.00
  AG (Dubai)                                 $17.24      $15.48      $10.95
                                                                                 ($5.00)
NYMEX Refining Margins
  NYMEX Front 321                            $22.89      $21.15       $7.09     ($10.00)
  NYMEX 321 Strip                            $23.49      $21.27       $8.18
                                                                                ($15.00)
  NYMEX CL HO                                $29.86      $27.44      $10.02
  NYMEX HO CL 12 strip                       $30.28      $27.83      $10.93     ($20.00)
  NYMEX CL XB                                $25.74      $24.24      $11.29
                                                                                ($25.00)
  NYMEX XB CL 12 strip                       $20.09      $17.99       $6.81                                 Tapis               Bonny Light                         Arab Light                    Murbian                     Dubai Fatah                           Arab Heavy
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                               Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      MORGAN                                                  STANLEY                                                                            RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      June 10, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Refining & Marketing




Commitment of Traders Report
Exhibit 42                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Exhibit 44
Crude Oil - CFTC Net Speculative Position                                                                                                                                                                                             Distillate - CFTC Net Speculative Position
 $160                                                             Net Crude Oil Long (Short)                                                          Front Month Crude (WTI)                                             350,000      $5.00                                                            Net Distillate Long (Short)                                                                                               Front Month Distillate                                                            80,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $4.50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        70,000
 $140                                                                                                                                                                                                                     300,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $4.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        60,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          250,000
 $120                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               50,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $3.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          200,000
 $100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               40,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $3.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          150,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   30,000
  $80                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  $2.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          100,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   20,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $2.00
  $60                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          50,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $1.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0
  $40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0            $1.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        (10,000)
  $20                                                                                                                                                                                                                     (50,000)     $0.50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        (20,000)

   $0                                                                                                                                                                                                                     (100,000)    $0.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        (30,000)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mar-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jun-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Dec-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Dec-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Dec-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jun-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Dec-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-10
           Jun-06




                                                           Jun-07




                                                                                                       Jun-08




                                                                                                                                             Jun-09




                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-10
                        Sep-06
                                    Dec-06
                                                Mar-07


                                                                       Sep-07
                                                                                  Dec-07
                                                                                             Mar-08


                                                                                                                 Sep-08
                                                                                                                           Dec-08
                                                                                                                                    Mar-09


                                                                                                                                                        Sep-09
                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-09
                                                                                                                                                                          Mar-10


                                                                                                                                                                                            Sep-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dec-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Mar-11




Left Axis – NYMEX NG front month futures ($/Mcf), Right Axis - Sum of NG combined futures                                                                                                                                             Left Axis – NYMEX HO front month futures ($/bbl), Right Axis – HO net speculative position
and options with normal and penultimate HH swaps adjusted by futures lot size. Options                                                                                                                                                Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
include European Style Options for NG, with data only available since April 2008
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Exhibit 45

Exhibit 43
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      RBOB - CFTC Net Speculative Position
Natural Gas - CFTC Net Speculative Position                                                                                                                                                                                             $4.00                                                                             Net RBOB Long (Short)                                                                                   Front Month RBOB                                                                  100,000

$16                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 90,000
                                                                    Nat Gas Net Long (Short)                                                          Front Month Nat Gas                                                               $3.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    80,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          250,000       $3.00
$14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    70,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        $2.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    60,000
$12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          150,000       $2.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       50,000
$10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 40,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        $1.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    30,000
  $8                                                                                                                                                                                                                      50,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        $1.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    20,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        $0.50
  $6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                10,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (50,000)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        $0.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jun-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Dec-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Mar-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jun-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Dec-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mar-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jun-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sep-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-11
  $4


  $2                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (150,000)
       Jun-06

                    Sep-06

                                 Dec-06

                                             Mar-07

                                                         Jun-07

                                                                     Sep-07

                                                                                Dec-07

                                                                                           Mar-08

                                                                                                      Jun-08

                                                                                                                Sep-08

                                                                                                                          Dec-08

                                                                                                                                    Mar-09

                                                                                                                                             Jun-09

                                                                                                                                                        Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-09

                                                                                                                                                                          Mar-10

                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-10

                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Axis – NYMEX RBOB front month futures ($/bbl), Right Axis – RBOB net spec. position
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Left Axis – NYMEX CL front month futures ($/bbl), Right Axis - CL net speculative position
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               MORGAN                                                            STANLEY                                                       RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               June 10, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Refining & Marketing




Crude Fundamentals
Exhibit 46                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Exhibit 49
WTI vs. Brent ($/bbl)                                                                                                                                                                                                          WTI & LLS vs. Maya ($/bbl)
  $10                                                                                                                                                                                                                           $30                                                                                                                         WTI vs. Maya                                           LLS vs. Maya


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $25
   $5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $20
   $0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $15
   ($5)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $10

 ($10)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $5

 ($15)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $0

 ($20)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ($5)
                                  Dec-06




                                                                                Dec-07




                                                                                                                        Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                                  Dec-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                            Dec-10
           Jun-06
                       Sep-06


                                             Mar-07
                                                        Jun-07
                                                                  Sep-07


                                                                                          Mar-08
                                                                                                    Jun-08
                                                                                                              Sep-08


                                                                                                                                      Mar-09
                                                                                                                                               Jun-09
                                                                                                                                                        Sep-09


                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-10
                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep-10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Dec-06



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jun-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dec-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jun-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Dec-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Dec-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jun-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Dec-10
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                                                                                                                     Source: Bloomberg Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 47                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Exhibit 50
LLS vs. Brent ($/bbl)                                                                                                                                                                                                          WTI & LLS vs. Canadian Oil Sands ($/bbl)
 $12                                                                                                                                                                                                                            $50                                                                                   WTI vs. Canada Oil Sands                                                          LLS vs. Canada Oil Sands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $45
 $10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $40

  $8                                                                                                                                                                                                                            $35

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $30
  $6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $25

  $4                                                                                                                                                                                                                            $20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $15
  $2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $10

  $0                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $0
  ($2)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sep-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Mar-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jun-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jun-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Dec-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mar-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-11
         Jun-06
                     Sep-06
                                Dec-06
                                           Mar-07
                                                      Jun-07
                                                                 Sep-07
                                                                            Dec-07
                                                                                         Mar-08
                                                                                                   Jun-08
                                                                                                             Sep-08
                                                                                                                       Dec-08
                                                                                                                                  Mar-09
                                                                                                                                               Jun-09
                                                                                                                                                        Sep-09
                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-09
                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-10
                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Dec-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Prior to May 2008, WTI differential based on Edmonton Lloyd crude blend with Western
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                                                                                                                     Canadian Select blend used thereafter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 48
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Exhibit 51
Total Crude Oil Stocks (ex-SPR, Mbbl)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               WTI & LLS vs. Mars Sour Crude ($/bbl)
  400,000
                                                    5 Yr Max                                5 Yr Min                             5 Yr Avg                              2010                           2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $15                                                                                                                       WTI vs. Mars                                   LLS vs. Mars


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $10

  350,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $5


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $0


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ($5)
  300,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ($10)


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ($15)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Dec-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dec-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mar-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Dec-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Dec-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Dec-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jun-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jun-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sep-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jun-07




  250,000
                                                                                            May




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov
                                                      Mar




                                                                                                                                Jul
                    Jan


                                     Feb




                                                                          Apr




                                                                                                             Jun




                                                                                                                                                 Aug


                                                                                                                                                                 Sep


                                                                                                                                                                                    Oct




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Dec




Source: EIA Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                                                                                                                            Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                21
                                                                                        MORGAN              STANLEY           RESEARCH

                                                                                        June 10, 2011
                                                                                        Refining & Marketing




US Product Crack Spreads
Exhibit 52                                                                              Exhibit 55
US Average 3:2:1 Crack Spread                                                           West Coast 3:2:1 (ANS)
  $40                                                                                     $45
                                                                           5 Yr Max                                                                          5 Yr Max
                                                                           5 Yr Min                                                                          5 Yr Min
  $35                                                                                     $40
                                                                           5 Yr Avg                                                                          5 Yr Avg

                                                                                          $35                                                                2010
  $30                                                                      2010
                                                                                                                                                             2011
                                                                           2011
                                                                                          $30
  $25
                                                                                          $25
  $20
                                                                                          $20
  $15
                                                                                          $15
  $10
                                                                                          $10
   $5
                                                                                           $5
   $0                                                                                      $0
                    Mar




                                May
                          Apr




                                                               Oct


                                                                     Nov
        Jan


              Feb




                                      Jun




                                                   Aug


                                                         Sep
                                             Jul




                                                                                  Dec




                                                                                                                        May




                                                                                                                                                               Nov
                                                                                                                                                       Oct
                                                                                                            Mar

                                                                                                                  Apr




                                                                                                                                                                            Dec
                                                                                                      Feb




                                                                                                                              Jun




                                                                                                                                           Aug


                                                                                                                                                 Sep
                                                                                                Jan




                                                                                                                                     Jul
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                              Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 53                                                                              Exhibit 56
Gulf Coast 3:2:1 (WTI)                                                                  Mid-Continent 3:2:1 (WTI)
  $35                                                                                     $45
                                                                     5 Yr Max                                                                                        5 Yr Max
                                                                     5 Yr Min
                                                                                          $40
  $30                                                                                                                                                                5 Yr Min
                                                                     5 Yr Avg                                                                                        5 Yr Avg
                                                                                          $35
                                                                     2010                                                                                            2010
  $25
                                                                     2011                 $30                                                                        2011

  $20                                                                                     $25

  $15                                                                                     $20

                                                                                          $15
  $10
                                                                                          $10
   $5
                                                                                           $5

   $0                                                                                      $0
                                                                                                                        May
                                May




                                                                                                                                     Jul




                                                                                                                                                       Oct
                    Mar




                                                                                                                                                               Nov
                                                                                                Jan


                                                                                                      Feb

                                                                                                            Mar


                                                                                                                  Apr




                                                                                                                              Jun




                                                                                                                                           Aug


                                                                                                                                                 Sep
              Feb




                                                                                                                                                                            Dec
                                                                     Nov


                                                                                  Dec
        Jan




                                      Jun


                                             Jul


                                                   Aug


                                                         Sep
                          Apr




                                                               Oct




Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                              Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 54                                                                              Exhibit 57
Northeast 3:2:1 (WTI)                                                                   Midwest 3:2:1 (WTI)
  $35                                                                                     $45
                                                                            5 Yr Max                                                                           5 Yr Max
                                                                            5 Yr Min      $40                                                                  5 Yr Min
  $30
                                                                            5 Yr Avg                                                                           5 Yr Avg
                                                                            2010          $35                                                                  2010
  $25                                                                       2011                                                                               2011
                                                                                          $30
  $20
                                                                                          $25

  $15                                                                                     $20

                                                                                          $15
  $10
                                                                                          $10
   $5
                                                                                           $5
   $0
                                                                                           $0
                                May




                                             Jul




                                                               Oct


                                                                     Nov
        Jan


              Feb

                    Mar


                          Apr




                                      Jun




                                                   Aug


                                                         Sep




                                                                                  Dec




                                                                                                                        May
                                                                                                            Mar




                                                                                                                                                               Nov
                                                                                                                  Apr
                                                                                                Jan


                                                                                                      Feb




                                                                                                                              Jun




                                                                                                                                           Aug


                                                                                                                                                 Sep


                                                                                                                                                       Oct




                                                                                                                                                                            Dec
                                                                                                                                     Jul




Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                              Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                  22
                                                                                             MORGAN                STANLEY           RESEARCH

                                                                                             June 10, 2011
                                                                                             Refining & Marketing




Gasoline Crack Spreads (WTI-basis)
Exhibit 58                                                                                   Exhibit 61
US Average Gasoline Crack                                                                    Mid-Continent Gasoline Crack
  $50                                                                           5 Yr Max       $50
                                                                                5 Yr Min                                                                           5 Yr Max
                                                                                2011                                                                               5 Yr Min
  $40                                                                           2010           $40                                                                 2011
                                                                                5 Yr Avg                                                                           2010
                                                                                                                                                                   5 Yr Avg
  $30                                                                                          $30



  $20                                                                                          $20


                                                                                               $10
  $10


                                                                                                $0
   $0


                                                                                              ($10)
  ($10)




                                                                                                                               May




                                                                                                                                           Jul




                                                                                                                                                                     Nov
                                                                                                       Jan


                                                                                                             Feb




                                                                                                                                     Jun




                                                                                                                                                 Aug


                                                                                                                                                       Sep


                                                                                                                                                             Oct




                                                                                                                                                                              Dec
                                                                                                                   Mar


                                                                                                                         Apr
                                      May




                                                                    Oct
                        Mar


                               Apr
                 Feb




                                                  Jul
          Jan




                                            Jun




                                                        Aug


                                                              Sep




                                                                          Nov


                                                                                       Dec




Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                                   Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 59                                                                                   Exhibit 62
Gulf Coast Gasoline Crack                                                                    West Coast Gasoline Crack
  $50                                                                                          $60
                                                                                 5 Yr Max                                                                          5 Yr Max
                                                                                 5 Yr Min                                                                          5 Yr Min
                                                                                               $50
  $40                                                                                                                                                              2011
                                                                                 2011
                                                                                 2010                                                                              2010
                                                                                               $40
  $30                                                                            5 Yr Avg                                                                          5 Yr Avg

                                                                                               $30
  $20
                                                                                               $20

  $10
                                                                                               $10

    $0                                                                                          $0


  ($10)                                                                                        ($10)
                                                                                                                               May
                                                                                                       Jan


                                                                                                             Feb




                                                                                                                                     Jun




                                                                                                                                                 Aug


                                                                                                                                                       Sep


                                                                                                                                                             Oct
                                                                                                                                           Jul




                                                                                                                                                                     Nov
                                                                                                                   Mar


                                                                                                                         Apr




                                                                                                                                                                              Dec
                                      May




                                                  Jul




                                                                          Nov
                                                                    Oct
           Jan


                  Feb




                                            Jun




                                                        Aug


                                                              Sep
                         Mar


                                Apr




                                                                                       Dec




Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                                   Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 60                                                                                   Exhibit 63
Northeast Gasoline Crack                                                                     Midwest Gasoline Crack
  $40                                                                                          $60
                                                                                5 Yr Max                                                                           5 Yr Max
                                                                                5 Yr Min                                                                           5 Yr Min
  $35                                                                                          $50
                                                                                2011                                                                               2011

  $30                                                                           2010                                                                               2010
                                                                                5 Yr Avg
                                                                                               $40                                                                 5 Yr Avg
  $25
                                                                                               $30
  $20
                                                                                               $20
  $15
                                                                                               $10
  $10
                                                                                                $0
   $5
                                                                                               ($10)
   $0
                                                                                               ($20)
  ($5)
                                                                                                                               May
                                                                                                       Jan


                                                                                                             Feb




                                                                                                                                     Jun




                                                                                                                                                 Aug


                                                                                                                                                       Sep


                                                                                                                                                             Oct
                                                                                                                                           Jul




                                                                                                                                                                     Nov
                                                                                                                   Mar


                                                                                                                         Apr




                                                                                                                                                                              Dec
                                      May




                                                  Jul




                                                                          Nov
          Jan


                 Feb


                        Mar


                               Apr




                                            Jun




                                                        Aug


                                                              Sep


                                                                    Oct




                                                                                       Dec




                                                                                             Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                    23
                                                                                                                    MORGAN              STANLEY                    RESEARCH

                                                                                                                    June 10, 2011
                                                                                                                    Refining & Marketing




Diesel Crack Spreads (WTI-Basis)
Exhibit 64                                                                                                          Exhibit 67
US Average ULSD Crack                                                                                               Mid-Continent ULSD Crack
  $40                       5 Yr Max          5 Yr Min              2010          2011             5 Yr Avg           $40
                                                                                                                                              5 Yr Max         5 Yr Min          5 Yr Avg          2010         2011

  $35                                                                                                                 $35

  $30                                                                                                                 $30

  $25                                                                                                                 $25

  $20                                                                                                                 $20

                                                          ````
  $15                                                                                                                 $15


  $10
                                                                                                                      $10

                                                                                                                       $5
   $5

                                                                                                                       $0
   $0




                                                                                                                                                         May
                                                                                                                            Jan


                                                                                                                                  Feb




                                                                                                                                                                     Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep


                                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct
                                                                                                                                                                           Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov
                                                                                                                                        Mar


                                                                                                                                                   Apr




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec
                                        May
                     Mar


                                Apr




                                                            Jul




                                                                                             Oct


                                                                                                    Nov


                                                                                                              Dec
              Feb




                                                   Jun




                                                                        Aug


                                                                                Sep
        Jan




                                                                                                                    Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 65                                                                                                          Exhibit 68

Gulf Coast ULSD Crack                                                                                               West Coast ULSD Crack
                                                                                                                      $45
  $40                                                                                                                                     5 Yr Max             5 Yr Min          5 Yr Avg      2010             2011
                    5 Yr Max            5 Yr Min                 5 Yr Avg             2010           2011
                                                                                                                      $40
  $35
                                                                                                                      $35
  $30
                                                                                                                      $30
  $25
                                                                                                                      $25
  $20
                                                                                                                      $20
  $15                                                                                                                 $15

  $10                                                                                                                 $10

   $5                                                                                                                  $5

                                                                                                                       $0
   $0
                                                                                                                                                         May
                                                                                                                            Jan


                                                                                                                                  Feb




                                                                                                                                                                     Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep


                                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct
                                                                                                                                                                           Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov
                                                                                                                                        Mar


                                                                                                                                                   Apr




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec
                                        May
        Jan


              Feb




                                                   Jun




                                                                        Aug


                                                                                Sep


                                                                                             Oct
                                                            Jul




                                                                                                    Nov
                      Mar


                                Apr




                                                                                                              Dec




Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                          Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 66                                                                                                          Exhibit 69

Northeast ULSD Crack                                                                                                Midwest ULSD Crack
                                                                                                                      $40
  $45                                                                                                                                         5 Yr Max         5 Yr Min          5 Yr Avg      2010             2011
                             5 Yr Max          5 Yr Min              5 Yr Avg           2010          2011

  $40                                                                                                                 $35

  $35                                                                                                                 $30

  $30                                                                                                                 $25

  $25
                                                                                                                      $20
  $20
                                                                                                                      $15
  $15
                                                                                                                      $10
  $10
                                                                                                                       $5
   $5

                                                                                                                       $0
   $0
                                                                                                                                                         May




                                                                                                                                                                           Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov
                                                                                                                            Jan


                                                                                                                                  Feb


                                                                                                                                        Mar


                                                                                                                                                   Apr




                                                                                                                                                                     Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep


                                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec
                                        May




                                                            Jul




                                                                                                    Nov
        Jan


              Feb


                      Mar


                                Apr




                                                   Jun




                                                                        Aug


                                                                                Sep


                                                                                             Oct




                                                                                                              Dec




Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                          Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             24
                                                                                                                                                                               MORGAN                         STANLEY                              RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                               June 10, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                               Refining & Marketing




Other US Product Crack Spreads
Exhibit 70                                                                                                                                                                     Exhibit 73
NY Harbor #2 Heating Oil (WTI)                                                                                                                                                 NY Harbor 54-Grade Jet Fuel Crack (WTI)
  $35                                                                                                                                                                            $50                           5 Yr Max                       5 Yr Min                    5 Yr Avg              2010                           2011
                                    5 Yr Max                          5 Yr Min                       5 Yr Avg                    2010                        2011
                                                                                                                                                                                 $45
  $30
                                                                                                                                                                                 $40
  $25                                                                                                                                                                            $35

                                                                                                                                                                                 $30
  $20
                                                                                                                                                                                 $25
  $15
                                                                                                                                                                                 $20

  $10                                                                                                                                                                            $15

                                                                                                                                                                                 $10
   $5
                                                                                                                                                                                  $5

   $0                                                                                                                                                                             $0
                                                                     May




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            May
        Jan


                     Feb




                                                                                Jun




                                                                                                           Aug


                                                                                                                         Sep


                                                                                                                                        Oct




                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan


                                                                                                                                                                                                   Feb




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sep


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Oct
                                                                                            Jul




                                                                                                                                                       Nov




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov
                                     Mar


                                                    Apr




                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar


                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Apr
                                                                                                                                                                         Dec




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                                                                     Source: Bloomberg Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 71                                                                                                                                                                     Exhibit 74
Gulf Coast #2 Heating Oil (WTI)                                                                                                                                                Gulf Coast 54-Grade Jet Fuel Crack (WTI)
  $35                                                                                                                                                                            $45                          5 Yr Max                        5 Yr Min                     5 Yr Avg                          2010                    2011
                                    5 Yr Max                         5 Yr Min                       5 Yr Avg                    2010                     2011
                                                                                                                                                                                 $40
  $30
                                                                                                                                                                                 $35
  $25
                                                                                                                                                                                 $30
  $20                                                                                                                                                                            $25

  $15                                                                                                                                                                            $20

                                                                                                                                                                                 $15
  $10
                                                                                                                                                                                 $10
   $5
                                                                                                                                                                                  $5

   $0                                                                                                                                                                             $0
                                                                     May
        Jan


                     Feb




                                                                                Jun




                                                                                                           Aug


                                                                                                                         Sep


                                                                                                                                        Oct
                                                                                            Jul




                                                                                                                                                       Nov
                                     Mar


                                                    Apr




                                                                                                                                                                         Dec




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            May




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov
                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan


                                                                                                                                                                                                   Feb




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sep


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Oct




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar


                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Apr




Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                                                                  Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 72                                                                                                                                                                     Exhibit 75
Ethanol vs. Gasoline Pricing ($/gal)                                                                                                                                           Corn Ethanol Crush Spread ($/gal)
  $5.00                                                                                                                                                                          $4.50                                                      Corn             Ethanol             Crush Spread
                                                          Gasoline                    Ethanol            Gasoline-Ethanol Spread
                                                                                                                                                                                 $4.00
  $4.00
                                                                                                                                                                                 $3.50

  $3.00                                                                                                                                                                          $3.00

                                                                                                                                                                                 $2.50
  $2.00
                                                                                                                                                                                 $2.00

  $1.00                                                                                                                                                                          $1.50

                                                                                                                                                                                 $1.00
  $0.00
                                                                                                                                                                                 $0.50

  ($1.00)                                                                                                                                                                        $0.00

                                                                                                                                                                                ($0.50)
  ($2.00)
                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Dec-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jun-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Dec-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec-10
            Jun-06




                                           Jun-07




                                                                             Jun-08




                                                                                                                Jun-09




                                                                                                                                              Jun-10
                           Dec-06




                                                            Dec-07




                                                                                                Dec-08




                                                                                                                               Dec-09




                                                                                                                                                                Dec-10




                                                                                                                                                                               Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      25
                                                                                                                                  MORGAN               STANLEY                    RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                  June 10, 2011
                                                                                                                                  Refining & Marketing




Global Product Crack Spreads
Exhibit 76                                                                                                                        Exhibit 79
Northwest Europe 3:2:1 Crack (Brent)                                                                                              Singapore 3:2:1 Crack Spread (Dubai)
  $25                                                                                                                              $30
                              5 Yr Max          5 Yr Min           5 Yr Avg            2010               2011                                               5 Yr Max         5 Yr Min          5 Yr Avg         2010          2011


                                                                                                                                   $25
  $20

                                                                                                                                   $20
  $15
                                                                                                                                   $15

  $10
                                                                                                                                   $10


   $5                                                                                                                               $5


   $0                                                                                                                               $0




                                                                                                                                                                            May




                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul
                                                                                                                                           Jan


                                                                                                                                                 Feb




                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sep




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov
                                                                                                                                                       Mar


                                                                                                                                                                   Apr




                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Dec
                                          May




                                                             Jul




                                                                                                          Nov
        Jan


                Feb




                                                     Jun




                                                                        Aug


                                                                                 Sep


                                                                                              Oct




                                                                                                                      Dec
                        Mar


                                   Apr




                                                                                                                                  Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 77                                                                                                                        Exhibit 80

Northwest Europe 95 RON Gasoline Crack (Brent)                                                                                    Singapore 97 Octane Gasoline Crack (Dubai)
                                                                                                                                    $30                  5 Yr Min             5 Yr Max          5 Yr Avg         2010          2011
  $35
                       5 Yr Min           5 Yr Max            5 Yr Avg             2010                   2011
  $30                                                                                                                               $25
  $25
                                                                                                                                    $20
  $20

  $15                                                                                                                               $15

  $10
                                                                                                                                    $10
   $5
                                                                                                                                     $5
   $0

   ($5)                                                                                                                              $0
  ($10)
                                           May




                                                                                                           Nov
                                                              Jul
          Jan


                 Feb




                                                      Jun




                                                                          Aug


                                                                                  Sep
                         Mar


                                    Apr




                                                                                               Oct




                                                                                                                       Dec




                                                                                                                                    ($5)
                                                                                                                                                                            May




                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov
                                                                                                                                                       Mar
                                                                                                                                           Jan


                                                                                                                                                 Feb




                                                                                                                                                                   Apr




                                                                                                                                                                                     Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sep


                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                        Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 78                                                                                                                        Exhibit 81
Northwest Europe Gasoil Crack (Brent)                                                                                             Singapore Gasoil Crack (Dubai)
  $35                                                                                                                               $50
                        5 Yr Max           5 Yr Min            5 Yr Avg            2010                   2011                                                   5 Yr Max          5 Yr Min          5 Yr Avg           2010           2011

  $30                                                                                                                               $45

                                                                                                                                    $40
  $25
                                                                                                                                    $35

  $20                                                                                                                               $30

                                                                                                                                    $25
  $15
                                                                                                                                    $20

  $10                                                                                                                               $15

                                                                                                                                    $10
   $5
                                                                                                                                     $5

   $0                                                                                                                                $0
                                                                                                                                                                            May




                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov
                                                                                                                                           Jan


                                                                                                                                                 Feb




                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sep


                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec
                                           May




                                                                                                                                                       Mar


                                                                                                                                                                   Apr
                                                               Jul




                                                                                                                Nov
          Jan


                Feb




                                                       Jun




                                                                           Aug


                                                                                       Sep


                                                                                                    Oct
                         Mar




                                                                                                                            Dec
                                    Apr




Note: 5 year range only available since November 2007                                                                             Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    26
                                                                                                     MORGAN                          STANLEY                      RESEARCH

                                                                                                     June 10, 2011
                                                                                                     Refining & Marketing




Refinery Crude Throughputs
Exhibit 82                                                                                           Exhibit 85
Total US Refiner Crude Throughputs (mbpd)                                                            PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) Crude Throughputs (mbpd)
                                                                                                       9,000
                         5 Yr Max             5 Yr Min          5 Yr Avg         2010         2011                                           5 Yr Max            5 Yr Min           5 Yr Avg            2010            2011
  16,500
                                                                                                       8,000

  15,500
                                                                                                       7,000

  14,500
                                                                                                       6,000

  13,500
                                                                                                       5,000


  12,500                                                                                               4,000


  11,500                                                                                               3,000




                                                                                                                                                           May
                                                                                                                                       Mar


                                                                                                                                                   Apr




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct


                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov
                                                                                                                   Jan


                                                                                                                           Feb




                                                                                                                                                                     Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sep




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dec
                                                                                                                                                                              Jul
                                        May
                       Mar




                                                          Jul




                                                                                 Oct
           Jan


                 Feb




                                                  Jun




                                                                  Aug


                                                                           Sep
                                  Apr




                                                                                        Nov


                                                                                               Dec




                                                                                                     Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research

                                                                                                     Exhibit 86
Exhibit 83
                                                                                                     PADD 4 (Rockies) Crude Throughputs (mbpd)
PADD 1 (Northeast) Crude Throughputs (mbpd)
                                                                                                       650
  2,000                                                                                                                                5 Yr Max                5 Yr Min             5 Yr Avg            2010            2011
                             5 Yr Max          5 Yr Min         5 Yr Avg         2010         2011

  1,800
                                                                                                       600

  1,600

                                                                                                       550
  1,400

  1,200
                                                                                                       500

  1,000

                                                                                                       450
   800

   600
                                                                                                       400
                                        May
                       Mar




                                                                                        Nov
           Jan


                 Feb




                                  Apr




                                                  Jun




                                                                  Aug


                                                                           Sep


                                                                                 Oct
                                                          Jul




                                                                                               Dec




                                                                                                                                                         May
                                                                                                                                     Mar




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov
                                                                                                             Jan


                                                                                                                         Feb




                                                                                                                                                 Apr




                                                                                                                                                                    Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                      Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sep


                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct
                                                                                                                                                                             Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dec
Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                 Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 84                                                                                           Exhibit 87
PADD 2 (Mid-Continent) Crude Throughputs (mbpd)                                                      PADD 5 (West Coast) Crude Throughputs (mbpd)
  4,000                                                                                                3,250
                             5 Yr Max         5 Yr Min          5 Yr Avg         2010         2011                                           5 Yr Max             5 Yr Min            5 Yr Avg             2010            2011


  3,750                                                                                                3,000


  3,500                                                                                                2,750


  3,250                                                                                                2,500


  3,000                                                                                                2,250


  2,750                                                                                                2,000

  2,500
                                                                                                       1,750
                                        May




                                                                                        Nov
           Jan


                 Feb




                                                  Jun


                                                          Jul


                                                                  Aug


                                                                           Sep


                                                                                 Oct




                                                                                               Dec
                       Mar


                                  Apr




                                                                                                                                                           May
                                                                                                                                           Mar




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov
                                                                                                                                                   Apr
                                                                                                                   Jan


                                                                                                                               Feb




                                                                                                                                                                      Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep


                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dec
                                                                                                                                                                              Jul




Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                                     Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 27
                                                                                                                 MORGAN                      STANLEY                  RESEARCH

                                                                                                                 June 10, 2011
                                                                                                                 Refining & Marketing




Gasoline Fundamentals
Exhibit 88                                                                                                       Exhibit 90
Implied Gasoline Demand (mbpd)                                                                                   Gasoline Production (mbpd)
  10,500                                                                                                             10,000                    5 Yr Max             5 Yr Min            5 Yr Avg          2010            2011
                           5 Yr Max            5 Yr Min          5 Yr Avg           2010             2011


                                                                                                                      9,500
  10,000


                                                                                                                      9,000

   9,500
                                                                                                                      8,500


   9,000
                                                                                                                      8,000



   8,500                                                                                                              7,500




                                                                                                                                                               May
                                                                                                                                               Mar
                                                                                                                                       Feb




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec
                                                                                                                               Jan




                                                                                                                                                                          Jun


                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul


                                                                                                                                                                                            Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep
                                                                                                                                                        Apr




                                                                                                                                                                                                             Oct
                                         May
                          Mar
           Jan


                   Feb




                                                    Jun


                                                          Jul




                                                                                    Oct
                                                                    Aug


                                                                            Sep




                                                                                            Nov


                                                                                                         Dec
                                  Apr




Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                             Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 89                                                                                                       Exhibit 91
Gasoline Stocks (mbbl)                                                                                           Gasoline Imports (mbpd)
  250,000                                                                                                            1,800
                            5 Yr Max           5 Yr Min         5 Yr Avg          2010            2011                                             5 Yr Max          5 Yr Min           5 Yr Avg          2010       2011

                                                                                                                     1,600

                                                                                                                     1,400
  225,000
                                                                                                                     1,200

                                                                                                                     1,000

  200,000                                                                                                             800

                                                                                                                      600

                                                                                                                      400
                                                                                                                                             Mar




                                                                                                                                                              May




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov
                                                                                                                             Jan


                                                                                                                                     Feb




                                                                                                                                                       Apr




                                                                                                                                                                         Jun


                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul


                                                                                                                                                                                            Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep


                                                                                                                                                                                                             Oct




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec
  175,000
                                         May
                    Feb

                           Mar


                                   Apr




                                                                                           Nov


                                                                                                     Dec
             Jan




                                                    Jun


                                                          Jul


                                                                   Aug


                                                                            Sep


                                                                                   Oct




                                                                                                                 Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 92
Gasoline Days of Inventory
   30
                                                                  5 Yr Max                        5 Yr Min           5 Yr Avg                        2010                       2011
   28

   26

   24

   22

   20

   18
     Jan                  Feb            Mar                    Apr               May                Jun       Jul                 Aug                Sep                 Oct                     Nov              Dec

Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       28
                                                                                                                                           MORGAN                             STANLEY                       RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                           June 10, 2011
                                                                                                                                           Refining & Marketing




Distillate Fundamentals
Exhibit 93                                                                                                                                 Exhibit 95
Implied Distillate Demand (mbpd)                                                                                                           Distillate Production (mbpd)
  5,500                                                                                                                                        5,000
                                  5 Yr Max                  5 Yr Min                5 Yr Avg             2010           2011                                                    5 Yr Max                 5 Yr Min            5 Yr Avg            2010            2011



  5,000                                                                                                                                        4,500



  4,500                                                                                                                                        4,000



  4,000                                                                                                                                        3,500



  3,500
                                                                                                                                               3,000
                                                          May
                                  Mar
          Jan


                      Feb




                                                                      Jun




                                                                                         Aug


                                                                                                  Sep


                                                                                                            Oct


                                                                                                                      Nov
                                              Apr




                                                                              Jul




                                                                                                                                   Dec




                                                                                                                                                                                                   May
                                                                                                                                                                                Mar


                                                                                                                                                                                           Apr




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Nov
                                                                                                                                                           Jan


                                                                                                                                                                        Feb




                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jun


                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Oct




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dec
Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                                                                           Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 94
                                                                                                                                           Exhibit 96
Distillate Stocks (mbbl)                                                                                                                   Distillate Imports (mbpd)
 200,000
                                                                                                                                               800
                                         5 Yr Max                 5 Yr Min            5 Yr Avg            2010              2011                                                      5 Yr Max             5 Yr Min          5 Yr Avg           2010           2011
                                                                                                                                               700
 180,000
                                                                                                                                               600

 160,000                                                                                                                                       500

                                                                                                                                               400
 140,000
                                                                                                                                               300

 120,000                                                                                                                                       200

                                                                                                                                               100
 100,000
                                                                                                                                                 0
                                                            May
                                        Mar




                                                                                                                Oct
                Jan


                            Feb




                                                                        Jun




                                                                                            Aug


                                                                                                   Sep
                                                                                Jul
                                                    Apr




                                                                                                                      Nov


                                                                                                                                   Dec




                                                                                                                                                                                                 May
                                                                                                                                                                              Mar




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Oct
                                                                                                                                                     Jan


                                                                                                                                                                  Feb




                                                                                                                                                                                        Apr




                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Nov


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dec
Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                                                                           Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 97
Distillate Days of Inventory
   50
                                                                                        5 Yr Max                            5 Yr Min           5 Yr Avg                                 2010                          2011
   45

   40

   35

   30

   25

   20
     Jan                           Feb                      Mar                       Apr                 May                  Jun       Jul                     Aug                    Sep                    Oct                     Nov              Dec


Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            29
                                                                                                                        MORGAN                         STANLEY                                RESEARCH

                                                                                                                        June 10, 2011
                                                                                                                        Refining & Marketing




Other Refined Product Market Fundamentals
Exhibit 98                                                                                                              Exhibit 101
Total US Refining Utilization Rate (%)                                                                                  Total US Implied Refined Product Demand (% YoY)
  100                                                                                                                    10%                                                               4-WK MA YoY                13-WK MA YoY
                                    5 Yr Max           5 Yr Min          5 Yr Avg           2010       2011

   95
                                                                                                                          5%
   90


   85                                                                                                                     0%


   80
                                                                                                                         -5%
   75


   70                                                                                                                   -10%


   65
                                               May
                            Mar


                                       Apr




                                                                  Jul
        Jan


                    Feb




                                                          Jun




                                                                            Aug


                                                                                     Sep


                                                                                              Oct


                                                                                                     Nov


                                                                                                                  Dec




                                                                                                                        -15%
                                                                                                                           May-06         Nov-06       May-07         Nov-07           May-08           Nov-08        May-09            Nov-09           May-10          Nov-10          May-11

Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                                                        Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 99                                                                                                              Exhibit 102
Implied Jet-Kerosene Fuel Demand (mbpd)                                                                                 Total US Refined Product Stocks (MMbbl)
  2,000
                                  5 Yr Max           5 Yr Min            5 Yr Avg           2010           2011                                         5 Yr Max                           5 Yr Min                   5 Yr Avg                           2010                  2011
                                                                                                                          800


  1,800

                                                                                                                          750

  1,600


                                                                                                                          700
  1,400



  1,200                                                                                                                   650




  1,000                                                                                                                   600
                                                 May




                                                                                               Oct


                                                                                                     Nov
              Jan


                      Feb

                              Mar


                                         Apr




                                                            Jun




                                                                              Aug


                                                                                      Sep




                                                                                                                  Dec
                                                                   Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                     May
                                                                                                                                                       Mar




                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct
                                                                                                                                                                      Apr
                                                                                                                                 Jan


                                                                                                                                            Feb




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Aug


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Nov


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec
Source: IEA, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                    Source: Department of Transportation, Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 100                                                                                                             Exhibit 103

US Propylene Stocks, non-fuel use (mbbl)                                                                                US Vehicle Miles Traveled (YoY%)
                                                                                                                         5.0%                                                YoY (Current Month)                          YoY (3 Month MA)
  5,000
                                   5 Yr Max            5 Yr Min           5 Yr Avg          2010           2011
                                                                                                                         4.0%
  4,500
                                                                                                                         3.0%
  4,000
                                                                                                                         2.0%
  3,500
                                                                                                                         1.0%
  3,000
                                                                                                                         0.0%
  2,500
                                                                                                                         -1.0%
  2,000
                                                                                                                         -2.0%
  1,500                                                                                                                  -3.0%
  1,000                                                                                                                  -4.0%

   500                                                                                                                   -5.0%
                                                                                                                                 Jul-06



                                                                                                                                              Jan-07



                                                                                                                                                             Jul-07



                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-08



                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-11




        0
                                                May




                                                                   Jul




                                                                                                     Nov
                                                                                               Oct
            Jan


                      Feb




                                                           Jun




                                                                             Aug


                                                                                     Sep
                              Mar


                                         Apr




                                                                                                                  Dec




                                                                                                                        Source: Department of Transportation, Morgan Stanley Research;
                                                                                                                        Note, data released after a two month lag
Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           30
                                                                                  MORGAN        STANLEY         RESEARCH

                                                                                  June 10, 2011
                                                                                  Refining & Marketing




Exhibit 104
US Refining and Marketing Comparable Metrics
                                                                 Ratings and Capitalization
                           6/9/11                Price   Equity Enterprise    Div.           Net Debt / Cap          Net Refining Margin / Barrel
                            Price     Rating    Target    Value    Value     Yield       2010E    2011E     2012E       2010E     2011E     2012E
         VLO               $25.40      E        $27.00   14,478   19,481     0.8%          25%      14%        8%       $3.54     $5.70     $5.12
         TSO               $21.47      E        $25.00    3,083     4,430    0.0%          30%      16%        9%       $3.40     $6.73     $4.99
         SUN               $41.06      O        $50.00    4,973     6,670    1.5%          36%      37%       30%      ($0.20)    $0.57     $1.51
         WNR               $15.10      O        $18.00    1,345     2,355    0.0%          60%      46%       32%       $3.53    $11.48     $8.70
         ALJ               $11.04      U         $8.00      612     1,496    1.4%          75%      69%       68%      ($2.15)    $3.80     $2.06
         DK                $14.29      E         $9.00      778     1,025    1.0%          36%      25%       14%       $1.44     $8.45     $5.80
         Average                                                             0.8%          43%      35%       27%       $1.60     $6.12     $4.70

                                                                          Operations
                         Refining Capacity (mbpd)            Utilization Rate            $ Gross Margin / Barrel           $ Opex / Barrel
                          2010E      2011E     2012E     2010E      2011E     2012E     2010E     2011E     2012E      2010E   2011E       2012E
         VLO              2,780      2,595     2,595       77%        85%       84%      $7.80     $9.80     $9.34     $4.26   $4.10       $4.22
         TSO                 665       665       665       72%        85%       84%     $11.27   $12.82     $10.90     $7.87   $6.09       $5.91
         SUN                 675       505       505       96%        88%       93%      $5.04     $5.34     $5.76     $5.24   $4.77       $4.25
         WNR                 151       153       154      138%        93%       97%      $8.88   $16.98     $14.09     $5.34   $5.50       $5.39
         ALJ                 247       247       247       43%        57%       64%      $5.06     $9.30     $7.50     $7.20   $5.50       $5.43
         DK                   60        60        60       90%        94%       94%      $7.00   $13.69     $10.56     $5.56   $5.24       $4.76
         Average                                           86%        84%       86%      $7.51   $11.32      $9.69     $5.91   $5.20       $4.99

                                                                          Valuation
                             Price / Earnings             Price / Cons Earnings              EV / EBITDA                 EV / Cons EBITDA
                           2010E     2011E    2012E      2010E     2011E     2012E      2010E     2011E  2012E         2010E    2011E   2012E
         VLO                17.4x      6.2x     8.5x      15.7x      7.0x      6.8x       6.0x      3.6x   4.3x          5.8x     3.9x    3.8x
         TSO                 NM        5.9x     8.4x        NM       6.8x      7.6x       8.5x      3.1x   3.9x          8.2x     3.4x    3.7x
         SUN                20.9x     28.8x    12.5x      22.9x     66.0x     17.6x       5.4x      6.8x   5.4x          6.7x     8.2x    6.6x
         WNR                 NM        6.1x     7.6x        NM       5.9x      6.4x       9.2x      4.1x   4.9x          9.1x     3.7x    3.9x
         ALJ                 NM       16.8x     NM          NM      17.9x     14.3x       NM        6.7x   9.9x           NM      5.9x    6.5x
         DK                  NM        9.2x    13.5x        NM      10.7x     15.0x      15.5x      4.6x   5.7x         15.7x     4.6x    5.4x
         Average            19.1x     12.2x    10.1x      19.3x     19.1x     11.3x       8.9x      4.8x   5.7x          9.1x     5.0x    5.0x

                                                             Morgan Stanley Versus Consensus
                            MS EPS Estimates             Consensus EPS Estimate          MS EBITDA ($MM)              Consensus EBITDA ($MM)
                           2010E   2011E     2012E        2010E   2011E     2012E     2010E    2011E   2012E           2010E    2011E    2012E
         VLO               $1.47   $4.05     $2.97        $1.62   $3.63     $3.75      3,258    5,457   4,525           3,352    4,981    5,153
         TSO              ($0.33)  $3.61     $2.52       ($0.29)  $3.15     $2.82        524    1,410   1,124             543    1,308    1,213
         SUN               $1.98   $1.43     $3.27        $1.79   $0.62     $2.33      1,229      974   1,239             999      809    1,016
         WNR              ($0.05)  $2.50     $1.98       ($0.11)  $2.55     $2.35        257      569     482             260      631      602
         ALJ              ($2.48)  $0.64    ($0.16)      ($2.41)  $0.62     $0.77        -51      224     151             -41      255      230
         DK               ($0.36)  $1.54     $1.05       ($0.36)  $1.34     $0.95         66      223     179              65      223      188
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




Valuation Methodology and Risks. Our price targets are based on 2011 EV/EBITDA multiples. Forecast target multiples are
compressed compared to historical periods owing to outsized profitability of much higher crude differentials. While SUN is valued at a
sum of the parts, including: refining at long term historic EV/EBITDA, DCF and Liquidation value, retail- long term EV/EBITDA multiple,
SunCoke - blended EV/EBITDA historic multiple broken out from met coal and coke, Logistics-Discounted Cash flow and Chemical on
historic EV/EBITDA multiple. Risks to our price targets include lower refined product prices, crude oil and natural gas prices, inability
for operators to maintain refinery and midstream assets performance.




                                                                                                                                                    31
                                                                      MORGAN        STANLEY          RESEARCH

                                                                      June 10, 2011
                                                                      Refining & Marketing




Coverage Team, Refining Publications & Content Index
North American Integrated Oil and Refining Coverage Team
Evan Calio                                   Evan.Calio@MorganStanley.com                                        (212) 761-6472
    Ben Hur                                  Ben.Hur@MorganStanley.com                                           (212) 761-7827
    Marko Lazarevic                          Marko.Lazarevic@MorganStanley.com                                   (212) 761-3692

Exhibit 105
Refining and Marketing Publications                                                          Content index            Date
Show Me the Money: Separation to Highlight Value                                             SUN                      7-Jun-11
Mergers, Spin-offs and IPOs at end of 2Q11                                                   Coverage Universe        3-Jun-11
Libyan Crude Outage Will Amplify Crude Differentials                                         Coverage Universe      27-May-11
Corporate Access Day Wrap: More than Seasonal Strength                                       Coverage Universe      20-May-11
Positive Earnings Revisions and Mississippi River Update                                     Coverage Universe      13-May-11
Three More Black Swans: Keystone, Ozark & Mississippi River                                  Coverage Universe      10-May-11
Mid-Con Earnings Power and SunCoke Expansion                                                 Coverage Universe       9-May-11
New Cushing Pipeline Offsets Bullish (VLO) Outlook                                           Coverage Universe       2-May-11
This Week in Refining: VLO and TSO Takeaways                                                 Coverage Universe       21-Apr-11
Integrated Oil and Refining: Stick With Crude Leverage and Mid-Con Exposure                  Coverage Universe       15-Apr-11
This Week in Refining: Debate Over Global Demand                                             Coverage Universe       15-Apr-11
This Week in Refining: Focus on 1Q11 EPS Revisions                                           Coverage Universe         8-Apr-11
This Week in Refining: Bullish LatAm Distillate Demand                                       Coverage Universe         1-Apr-11
This Week in Refining: What's in the Mid-Con Price?                                          Coverage Universe      25-Mar-11
SunCoke Separation: Focus on the Cash                                                        SUN                    24-Mar-11
This Week in Refining: Another Black Swan?                                                   Coverage Universe      18-Mar-11
Balanced Risked-Reward; Downgrading to Equal-weight                                          TSO                    15-Mar-11
Earthquake and Asset Sale                                                                    Coverage Universe      14-Mar-11
This Week in Refining: Macro Headwinds Offsetting 1Q11 Earnings Trends                       Coverage Universe      11-Mar-11
Houston Bus Tour Highlights                                                                  FTO                    10-Mar-11
Washington D.C. Trip: Drill Baby, Drill Maybe?                                               Coverage Universe        7-Mar-11
Holly Frontier Merger Creates Largest Mid-con Pure-play                                      FTO, HOC               23-Feb-11
Crude Oil: Secular Challenges at Cushing                                                     Coverage Universe      17-Feb-11
Mid Con Refining: On the Toll Road of Production Growth                                      Coverage Universe        3-Feb-11
Value to Growth Company: Upside Remains in 2011                                              SUN                    18-Jan-11
MLP Filing Confirms Our View: More Value to Unlock                                           TSO                      5-Jan-11
Restructuring and Re-rating Upside Remain                                                    TSO                    14-Dec-10
SUN-BURST: Toledo Sale, Met Coal Reset in 1Q11                                               SUN                      3-Dec-10
The Next Value Unlock: Upgrading to Overweight                                               TSO                    22-Nov-10
3Q10 Earnings: Deleveraging in Motion                                                        WNR                      4-Nov-10
Coke Outlook Brightens while Refining Weakens                                                SUN                     29-Oct-10
Earnings Beat and Positive Outlook Limits Downside                                           VLO                     26-Oct-10
Refining & Marketing: 3Q10 Earnings Look Promising; 4Q10E Neutral                            Coverage Universe       19-Oct-10
Deleveraging, Restructuring Drive Upside; Overweight                                         WNR                     13-Oct-10
COKE Deep Dive; Market Undervaluing SUN SOTP                                                 SUN                       5-Oct-10
Exiting PADD 1 with Paulsboro Sale                                                           VLO                    28-Sep-10
Refining & Marketing: Post 2Q10 Earnings Revisions                                           Coverage Universe      10-Aug-10
Yorktown Shutdown Improves Strategic Options                                                 WNR                      6-Aug-10
Big Earnings Beat; Defensive into Shoulder Season                                            SUN                      30-Jul-10
Earnings Beat; Goff Debuts with Cost Reductions                                              TSO                      29-Jul-10
Seasonal Trade Outweighs Strong Earnings Beat                                                VLO                      28-Jul-10
Source: Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                             32
                                                                       MORGAN        STANLEY       RESEARCH

                                                                       June 10, 2011
                                                                       Refining & Marketing




Morgan Stanley is acting as financial advisor to Holly Corporation ("Holly") in relation to the proposed merger with Frontier Oil
Corporation ("Frontier"), as announced on February 22, 2011.

The proposed transaction is subject to the approval of Holly and Frontier shareholders, regulatory approvals, and other customary
closing conditions. This report and the information provided herein is not intended to (i) provide voting advice, (ii) serve as an
endorsement of the proposed transaction, or (iii) result in the procurement, withholding or revocation of a proxy or any other action by
a security holder.

Holly has agreed to pay fees to Morgan Stanley for its financial services, including transaction fees that are contingent upon the
consummation of the proposed transaction




                                                                                                                                     33
                                                                                MORGAN         STANLEY         RESEARCH

                                                                                June 10, 2011
                                                                                Refining & Marketing




                                                       Disclosure Section
The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, and/or Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M.
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Incorporated, Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A., Morgan Stanley Mexico, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V. and their affiliates as necessary.
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Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies
As of May 31, 2011, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in
Morgan Stanley Research: Delek US Holdings Inc, Sunoco, Inc., Tesoro Corp, Western Refining Inc..
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering (or 144A offering) of securities of Marathon Oil Corporation.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil Corporation,
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Mobil Corporation, Frontier Oil Corporation, Holly Corporation, Marathon Oil Corporation, Sunoco, Inc., Tesoro Corp, Valero Energy Corporation.
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Corporation, Western Refining Inc..
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                         Coverage Universe    Investment Banking Clients (IBC)
                                        % of                   % of % of Rating
Stock Rating Category       Count       Total     Count Total IBC Category
Overweight/Buy              1153         41%         464        48%         40%
Equal-weight/Hold           1140         41%         365        38%         32%
Not-Rated/Hold                108         4%           20        2%         19%
Underweight/Sell              390        14%         108        11%         28%
Total                       2,791                    957




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                                                                                       MORGAN    STANLEY            RESEARCH




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Industry Coverage:Refining & Marketing

Company (Ticker)                              Rating (as of) Price* (06/10/2011)


Evan Calio
Alon USA Energy, Inc. (ALJ.N)                U (10/15/2009)                   $10.93
Delek US Holdings Inc (DK.N)                 E (02/02/2011)                   $14.25
Frontier Oil Corporation (FTO.N)                         ++                   $28.82
Holly Corporation (HOC.N)                                ++                   $59.98
Sunoco, Inc. (SUN.N)                         O (10/15/2009)                   $40.37
Tesoro Corp (TSO.N)                          E (03/15/2011)                   $21.04
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO.N)            E (10/15/2009)                   $24.96
Western Refining Inc. (WNR.N)                O (10/13/2010)                   $15.04

Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company.
* Historical prices are not split adjusted.




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