SOLAS and the Spectre of Geo Engineering by mikeholy

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									Iron Fertilisation – Some
Secondary Effects




Peter S Liss
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia Norwich UK
p.liss@uea.ac.uk
  
NO 3 μM
Jickells Jickells Science, 2005
         et al., et al. 2005
Sue Turner
Fe addition to the ocean




                       Boyd et al. 2007
                      Boyd et al. 2007
       SEEDS 1



    Day 11        Day 2




Plankton net samples (100mm, 0-20m)
in the patch on day 2 and day 11
Watson et al. 2000
                                         data
                                         model

Ironex II - like   SOIREE - like




                          (Aumont and Bopp, 2006)
(unrealistic) global-scale
              iron fertilization
              experiment
Method :
    • no more iron limitation
    • for 10 or 100 years


Results :
   • - 33 pmm after 100 years
   • - 7 ppm after 10 years, but if stopped,
       sequestered carbon is lost rapidly
   • non-local effects (on productivity, …)




 (Aumont and Bopp, 2006)
Nitrous Oxide




                Jin & Gruber 2003
Charlson et al. 1987
   SOIREE „99: EVOLUTION OF DMSP AND DMS IN THE UPPER WATER COLUMN
               INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE IRON-ENRICHED PATCH
                        days after start of iron enrichment                               days after start of iron enrichment
       0       2          4            6         8    10      12          0           2      4               6        8   10    12
  0                                                                  0

 -20                                                                -20

 -40                                                                -40

 -60                                                                -60

 -80                                                                -80

-100       DMSP inside                                             -100
                                                                              DMS inside
       0       2          4            6         8    10      12          0           2       4              6        8   10    12
  0                                                                   0

                                 0         10
 -20                                                                -20                                  0       10
                             0
                                                                                                     0
                           -20
                                                                                                   -20
 -40                       -40                                      -40
                                                                                                   -40
                           -60
                                                                                                   -60
                           -80
 -60                                                                -60                            -80
                          -100
                                                                                                  -100
 -80                                                                -80

-100
           DMSP outside                                            -100       DMS outside

                                                              SUZANNE TURNER                             DMS nmol l-1
                                     DMSP nmol l-1


           0       15            30         45       60                        -0.1       0.8            1.6      2.4     3.2
Turner et al. 2004
 New Directions: Enhancing the
natural sulfur cycle to slow global
             warming

      Wingenter et al. 2007
Methyl iodide concentrations during a Southern Ocean iron
enrichment experiment (EISENEX, Nov-Dec 2000)
             IN PATCH



      -50




    -100

             OUT PATCH



      -50




    -100
              0             5           10           15                20
                                Day since fertilisation

 CH3I ng/l
              0.06   0.10   0.14    0.18   0.22   0.26   0.30   0.34



                                    Adele Chuck
                                                    Air Quality
                          Southern Ocean Iron Fertilisation (EISENEX): Liss et al. 2005
                                                             365                                                  16
           1.6
                                                             360
                                                                                                                  12
           1.2
                                                             355
ug l-1




                                                                                                         ng l-1
                                                    uatm
                                                                                                                   8
           0.8
                                                             350

           0.4                                                                                                     4
                                                             345
                          chlorophyll a                                 carbon dioxide                                           methyl nitrate
           0.0                                               340                                                   0
                 -4   0    4   8     12   16   20                  -4   0    4    8     12   16   20                    -4   0   4   8     12   16   20
                                                             0.4
           3.0                                                                                                    1.6

                                                             0.3
                                                                                                                  1.2
nmol l-1




           2.0
                                                    ng l-1




                                                                                                        ng l-1
                                                             0.2                                                  0.8

           1.0
                                                             0.1                                                  0.4

                      dimethyl sulphide                                     methyl iodide                                        bromoform
           0.0                                               0.0                                                  0.0
                 -4   0    4   8     12   16   20                  -4   0    4    8     12   16   20                    -4   0   4   8     12   16   20
                               day                                                day                                                day

                                                                             IN                   OUT
                        Biodiversity
           IronEx II: Plankton community composition within patch 1 for day
                             0 and day 5 of the experiment

                                          (from Coale et al., 1996)

           35                                                  35

           30          day 0                                   30      day 5

           25                                                  25




                                                    ug C l-1
ug C l-1


           20                                                  20

           15                                                  15

           10                                                  10

            5                                                   5
            ug C l-1




             25 35
                30
             20
            015
             10                                                 0
              5
              0




                                                                                                                  HD +HF
                                                 HD +HF




                                                                                           DINO
                                DINO




                                                                           RFP
                          RFP




                                                                                 PRYMN




                                                                                             PEN

                                                                                                   CEN
                                          PEN

                                          CEN
                       PRYMN




                                                                                                         Phaeo
                                        Phaeo




                                                                                                                 H + A cil
                                                                 + A cil


                                                                    Syn
                          Syn




                                       PRYM




                                                               H PEN,




                                                                                         ocysti




                                                                                                                 otophi
                                                                 diato
                                       Prym




                                                                penn
                       Syne

                        occu
                        choc




                                                                                                                  H+A
                                       nesio




                                                                                          Phae

                                                                                          Phae
                        Syn,




                                                                                                                  heter
                                                                  ate




                                                                                                                   cil,
                                        N,




                                                                                           o,
                            Syn, Synechococcus
                            RFP, Red Fluorescing Picoplankton
                            PRYMN, Prymnesiophytes
                            DINO, autotrophic dinoflagellates
                            PEN, pennate diatoms
                            CEN, centric diatoms
                            Phaeo, Phaeocystis
                            HD + HF, heterotrophic (dinoflagellates + flagellates)
                            H + A cil, heterotophic + autotrophic ciliates
    Other Secondary Effects

A) Nutrient robbing
B) Cyclones/hurricanes
C) Geo-engineering and ocean acidification
SOLAS Position statement on large-scale
ocean fertilisation (2007)
Large-scale fertilisation of the ocean is being actively promoted by
various commercial organisations as a strategy to reduce
atmospheric CO2 levels. However, the current scientific evidence
indicates that this will not significantly increase carbon transfer
into the deep ocean or lower atmospheric CO2. Furthermore, there
may be negative impacts of iron fertilisation including dissolved
oxygen depletion, altered trace gas emissions that affect climate
and air quality, changes in biodiversity, and decreased
productivity in other oceanic regions. It is then critical and
essential that robust and independent scientific verification is
undertaken before large-scale fertilisation is considered. Given
our present lack of knowledge, the judgement of the SOLAS SSC
is that ocean fertilisation will be ineffective and potentially
deleterious, and should not be used as a strategy for offsetting
CO2 emissions.
Royal Society, 2009
“Give me half a tanker of iron,
and I’ll give you an ice age.”


                   Martin, 1988
“Human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment (i.e.
added CO2 to the atmosphere) of a kind that could not have happened in the
past or be reproduced in the future (Roger Revelle and Hans Suess, 1957) .

Pilots in the Royal Flying Corps in WWI were not issued with parachutes (nor
were they allowed to buy their own) since this “might impair their fighting spirit”.

“Only fools find joy in the prospect of climate engineering. It‟s foolish to think
that risk of significant climate damage can be denied or wished away. Perhaps
we can depend on the transcendent human capacity for self-sacrifice when
faced with unprecedented shared, long-term risk, and therefore can depend on
future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. But just in case, we‟d better
have a plan” (Ken Caldeira, 2008).

“A focus on tinkering with the entire planetary system is not a dynamic new
technological and scientific frontier, but an expression of political despair”
(Greenpeace, 2008).

The US Presidential Science Advisory Council in 1965 identified geo-
engineering as the only response to the CO2 climate problem, reporting that
“The possibilities of deliberately bringing about countervailing climatic changes
therefore needs to be deliberately explored” – the possibility of reducing fossil
fuel use was not discussed.
• Age of scientific innocence is over (Fe fertilisation,
  CRU)
• Geo-engineering may be needed if all else fails
• Research to eliminate unworkable ideas and
  thoroughly test those that might be useful
  (including secondary effects and unintended
  consequences)
• Favour
  – carbon capture/removal schemes
  – reversible
  – scaleable from small to large
• Against – large direct schemes (particularly SRM)
• Governance – legal, political, financial aspects
   Any
Questions?

								
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