Session Number: 1, 10:30 - 12:30, Monday 11 October 2010
Long term effects of Health Cyclist in the County Council of Uppsala,
Malin Gibrand, Trivector Traffic, SE
Background & Objectives:
A County Council requires a lot of transports of employees, patients and goods for its function. The
integration of Mobility Management in an environmental and traffic safety action program can be one
way for a County Council to make travelling and transports more efficient and environmentally
adapted – a Swedish version of the more European Travel Plans or Green Commuter Plans.
The Health Cyclist project was one of the measures in the action program for Uppsala County Council
for 2002-2006. Thanks to the positive results the project has continued even 2007 and 2008.
The objective of the project is to convince regular car commuters or users of public transport to use
bicycles at least three days a week during one year.
Implementation & Results:
After signing a contract to commute by bike at least three days a week during one year, the new
cyclists received a bike computer, a helmet and a rain coat. A fitness control was done before and
after the test year.
About 480 employees have participated or participate right now in the project. 85 % have fulfilled the
mission to commute by bicycle during one year. 85 % of the employees that fulfilled the mission have
continued to commute by bicycle after the test year and 65 % use the bike at least as much as during
the test year.
An evaluation of the two first years (2003 and 2004) shows that the new cyclists that fulfilled the
mission used their bikes on an average of 1200 kilometres per year. The effects on the emissions of
carbon dioxide can be estimated to 0,16 ton per participant during the test year and 0,10 ton per
participant the following years. In Uppsala County Council the total effect can be estimated to 26 tons
in 2004. The number of sickness days among the new cyclists has decreased by 50 % when
comparing the year before with the bicycle year. The total benefits of the project are much higher than
the costs. The total costs for the project 2004 were 27,000 Euros (equipment, condition tests and 40
% employee time) while the benefits are estimated at 130,000 Euros due to a decreased number of
The Health Cyclist project in the County of Uppsala has been very successful and has inspired many
other organisations to implement the same measure.
A presentation of the project was held at ECOMM 2006 where the results from the first two years
were presented. The project has now been run for five years and we can now see long term effects
on modal choice, emissions, well being and sickness days. Those results will be described more in
detail at Ecomm 2009.
Designing cycling for people: It’s not about the lanes! The challenge
of interpreting Cycling by Design 2 for urban areas.
Andy Mulholland MA, MSc, MTPS, MICE
The Cycling Action Plan for Scotland (CAPS) sets a target for 10% of all trips by 2020 to be by
bicycle. For this to be achieved, it is likely that approximately 20% of all short trips of less than 5 miles
will have to be by bicycle, whether for education, commuting or utility leisure.
To achieve these targets will require a broad range of measures:
Positive incentives and promotions to persuade the willing;
Educational interventions for all settings; and
A significant shift in land use development and transport infrastructure priorities to reward strategic
quality of life outcomes rather than strategic size projects.
A major element is changing our mindset on how we design urban areas where most of these short
trips take place to ensure that cycling is at the forefront. We have to think more about the people
using our urban areas, particularly the balance of their meet, move and market needs, and delivering
quality experiences. Understanding the types of environments that people want to cycle in has a
major part to play in achieving this.
Delivering quality experiences
Applying Cycling by Design 2 is only a minor part of creating cycling environments. Of far more
importance is understanding who we are designing for and delivering a quality experience.
This paper introduces the new version of Cycling by Design and its role in delivering on firm cycle use
targets. It interprets the key elements for application locally by all transport and planning professionals
and identifies the importance of thinking about people, not infrastructure when designing for cyclists.
The Challenge Ahead
The paper presents a vision for infrastructure design to meet the CAPS targets, and sets a challenge
for transport planners, road and street designers, urban architects and development planners to work
together to re-think the appraisal process by effectively building in quality of life considerations.
Notes for editors
Cycling by Design 2 is Scotland’s national cycle infrastructure guidance document, due to be
published by Transport Scotland in Spring 2010.
The Cycling Action Plan for Scotland is Scotland’s first targeted cycling strategy due to be published
in Spring 2010.
When at Cycling Scotland, Andy Mulholland was the project manager of the Cycling Action Plan for
Scotland. He is presently Halcrow's project manager for Cycling by Design, working on behalf of
Cycling demonstration towns – an economic evaluation
Andy Cope and Angela Kennedy, Sustrans, UK; Mark Ledbury and Robin Cambery, Department for
Transport, UK; John Parkin, University of Bolton, UK; Nick Cavill, Cavill Associates, UK
This paper describes a retrospective economic evaluation of the first phase of the Cycling England /
Department for Transport Cycling Demonstration Town investment programme in England between
October 2005 and March 2009. The towns involved in the first phase of the Cycling Demonstration
Towns programme were Aylesbury, Brighton & Hove, Darlington, Derby, Exeter and Lancaster with
Morecambe. All of the towns implemented a wide ranging programme of initiatives with the potential
to increase cycling levels. In each case the programme of interventions incorporated numerous
examples from across the spectrum of harder (infrastructural) and softer (e.g. media work, training)
In total, £18 million was invested in the Cycling Demonstration Towns over the course of the
programme. The town’s investment in cycling was at least £10 per head per year, representing a
substantially higher level of investment than the UK average, which is typically £1 per head per year.
The investment hypothesis was that investment levels more closely aligned with investment levels of
European cities with higher levels of cycling would lead to increases in levels of cycling activity.
A major part of the activity in the towns was a monitoring and evaluation programme. This exercise
was an innovative collaboration between Sustrans (voluntary sector specialists in sustainable
transportation), academic and consultant partners, the project funders, and the towns themselves.
The monitoring project included a number of different types of tailored data collection, including
automated and manual cycle counts, counts of parked bicycles, school and workplace travel surveys,
and other surveys. In addition, other local data sources were used for the purposes of evaluation.
The data show an average uplift of 27% in cycling across the six towns.
Secondary phases of the evaluation process include a partial economic evaluation focusing only on
the monetised public health benefits of physical activity associated with the Cycling Demonstration
Towns programme, using the World Health Organisations Health Economic Appraisal Tool for cycling,
and latterly a full economic evaluation using the Webtag economic appraisal framework. This exercise
involved the close collaboration of the partners in the monitoring and evaluation project with the
Department for Transport.
The economic evaluation generates a headline benefit:cost ratio in the high value for money category.
The value of benefits linked to increased levels of physical activity is demonstrably the largest part of
the full benefit value.
This paper outlines the monitoring methodology and results, and describes the economic evaluation
exercises. The paper details the application of established evaluation tools in this novel context, and
explores the challenges associated with this exercise (including data compatibility issues, evolving
techniques, refinement of tools) and the outputs of the exercise).
Notable features of the paper include:
The question of data manipulation to meet the needs of the economic evaluation tools (the monitoring
data from the CDTs was not collected with the purpose of estimating impacts in economic terms), and
the implications for design of monitoring and evaluation exercises
Implications of assumptions concerning the extent to which such a programme of interventions locks-
in changes in travel behaviour, with regard to the duration of the appraisal period used for the
economic evaluation exercise (particularly with respect to the fact of continuity of investment under
the current Cycling City and Towns programme)
The implications of the varied nature of the interventions that are part of the programme (including the
treatment of revenue and capital costs), and the simultaneous delivery of other transport (and other)
programmes in some of the towns
The absence of appropriate tools to inform the appraisal exercise, for example, the treatment of
under-16 year olds in the appraisal process (neither HEAT or Webtag allows for distinction to be
made for age groups where degrees of benefit may differ); the lack of a suitable means of estimating
morbidity benefits (HEAT deals only with mortality); the relative lack of any values that can be
assigned to reflect the benefits of the full range of provision through programmes of interventions to
There are a number of major considerations with reference to policy implications in terms of the
linkage between transport provision and public health (with specific reference to active travel), the
generation and interpretation of evaluation material (particularly economic evaluation), and monitoring
and evaluation for the purposes of determining future investment priorities, and informing the
development of policy on cycling and local transport
The promotion of bicycle access to the rail network as a way of
making better use of the existing network and reducing car
Henrietta Sherwin and Graham Parkhurst, University of the West of England, UK
"The promotion of bicycle access to the rail network as a way of making better use of the existing
network and reducing car dependence
The level of bike-rail integration (combining cycling with rail) in the UK presents an unrealised
sustainable mobility potential: two per cent of rail passengers access the rail network by bicycle,
contrasting with 40 per cent in the Netherlands. Cycling on its own has distance limitations but in
combination with rail it can substitute for longer car journeys and is one means of reducing car
The overall objective of this research project was to understand existing bike-rail integration behaviour
in the UK to inform the design, development and implementation of initiatives to increase its
incidence. The data collection sites were the two busiest stations in the South West of England,
Bristol Temple Meads and Bristol Parkway. The project consisted of two distinct elements: an
exploratory phase and an action research phase made possible by a collaborative partnership with a
UK rail operator .
The exploratory phase included a face-to-face survey of 135 bike-rail integrators which led to the
findings that their main motivations were saving time and getting exercise. Two thirds were male, 40%
in their thirties, 62% owned a car, nearly all were employed and living in households with incomes of
between £17,000 and £50,000. They had cycled on average 3.7 km to or from the station. The 44%
who had a car available to them for the particular journey they were making on that day reported
making an explicit choice to bike-rail integrate rather than use their car for the whole journey.
The survey showed that considerable experimentation with the different methods of bike-rail
integration had occurred: cycling and parking at the home station, parking a bicycle at both ends,
cycling to the station and taking the bicycle (fixed frame or folding) on the train, cycling one way and
returning with the bicycle on the train. The same individual used more than one of these methods at
different times and for different journeys depending on their situational context and personal
characteristics. Their decision was influenced by a number of factors:-
the security of bike parking, and this had to be at both ends for individuals to feel comfortable with
storing a bicycle at both ends.
the ease or difficulty of taking a bicycle on the train which depends on the route, the carrier, the time
of day and the flexibility of the staff.
the distance at either end of the rail journey.
The journey frequency – it would not be worth investing in a second bike parked at the destination
station if the journey is infrequent.
Safe or perceived to be safe routes to stations
Individuals were making trade-offs between the risk of uncertainty and the convenience of a seamless
journey by taking a bicycle on the train. Cycle parking and barrier counts at the two stations showed
the extent of the different methods.
An action research phase used this data in conjunction with a conceptual ecological model developed
from a critical review of behaviour change theory to inform the design and implementation of a small
scale pilot of a pay-as-you-go self-hire cycle network (Hourbike) and a social marketing exercise to
attract car drivers to switch to rail with either walking or cycling access.
The paper will discuss the implications of the overall findings of this research which suggest a number
of different options to make more efficient use of existing cycle parking and bicycle carriage capacity
and highlight the potential behaviour-releasing effect of providing new secure cycle parking facilities
or bicycle hire. In addition, the discussion of the implementation of the two interventions and their
outcomes provide important insights into the attractors and barriers to bike-rail integration from a non-
users perspective. The relevance of this information to the new UK national policy to implement
station travel plans across institutions in order to encourage more sustainable access to the rail
network and increase rail patronage will be outlined."
Public Cycle Hire Schemes
Session Number: 2, 13:30 - 15:30, Monday 11 October 2010
Perspectives on the growing market for public bicycles
Robert Clavel, Certu, FR; Scott Le Vine, Imperial College London, UK; Benoît Beroud, Mobiped, FR
10 public bicycles services in the early 2000s, more than 200 services in the early 2010s worldwide.
In France, 1 in 1998, 2 in 2005, more than 20 in early 2010, and many in various stages of
development. The number of public bicycles services in France has strongly increased during the
previous years. In England, 1 in 2004, 6 in early 2010. If the growth of public bicycles services is
lower in England, the launch of the London large-scale programme in summer 2010 should energize
the English market.
Public bicycles has grown and evolved quickly—in system scope, technologies, services, and
consumer behaviours. Meanwhile, actors of this market have to face to extended challenges : role of
public authorities, integration of the services in the cycling master plan, mobility and land use master
plan, the risk allocation between the coordinator, the provider and the operator, the coverage in the
suburban areas, financing sources, among others.
The paper presents successively:
1)The definition of public bicycles (typologies of services, technologies, etc
2)The state of the art in France with a specific focus on one service: supply, use, project elaboration.
Specific data on the modal report of Velov will be given. Information will be collected from EU funding
OBIS project, the French partners of OBIS, including EFFIA MTI and the CETE/CERTU, previous
Benot Berouds publications, meeting with local and national actors, articles, public publications,
3)The state of the art in England with a specific focus on one service: supply, use, project elaboration.
Information will be collected from EU funding OBIS project, the English partners of OBIS, including
CTC - UKs National Cyclists Organisation
4)A brief overview of other services worldwide
5)The potential market and perspectives
Public bike systems in Spain
Lisístrata Carballeda Pérez, Lara Velasco Carrera, Marta Rojo Arce, Hernán Gonzalo Orden,
University of Burgos, ES
In Europe, 50% of trips made by automobile travel lengths lower than 5km. In Spain, people with
forced mobility must perform an average of 3.3 trips per day and the 67% of them are made by
motorized means (55% car and rest on public transport). The bikes have a range between 5 and 7
km, so they can replace the car in a major part of the daily demand.
In some northern European countries such as Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany, about 20% of
daily trips are made by bicycle, while in other countries like USA and United Kingdom, the percentage
of cycling almost rounds 1%.
The needing of modifying the peoples behaviour towards a more sustainable mobility has resulted in
increasing the use of bicycles in everyday commuting.
Public bikes have been consolidated as a public transport mode in many European countries. Its
origin dates from the late 60’s in Amsterdam, and nowadays we can talk about the fourth generation
of public bikes. In Spain, these systems appeared in 2001 (3rd generation or SmartBikes) and since
then, they have been implemented in different cities with a wide variety of success degrees. Spanish
public bikes show a new urban public transport alternative, economic, fast and sustainable for daily
Recall that increase of cycling also depends on other key factors such as political constraints, social
and cultural features, resources, environmental awareness, legal aspects, etc
The proposed work analyses public bikes Systems in Spain. To do so, over the past two years, the
authors have compiled a dossier with the main information about the use and characterization of the
system in several Spanish cities. In addition, two surveys were made to complement it. The first one
was made at local level and was oriented to know users view of Bicibur (local bike system in Burgos
city). And the second one was specific to the university community with the aim of finding out their
opinion about cycling as they represent a big potential group towards sustainable mobility. From the
results of these studies the authors have obtained three types of data:
1.Those related to the characteristics of the system: implementation date, schedules of operation,
costs for the subscribers and users, and the responsible for their operation.
2.The numerical data related to the statistics use, evolution of the number of subscribers, number of
stations and bikes. After that the authors defined some coefficients to evaluate their effectiveness,
such as the number of stations or bikes per inhabitant and bicycle rotations, among others.
3.The costs of the system.
These results, in addition to demographic and mobility policies (enforcement of cycle lanes and
restrictions for motor vehicles) for each city help us to define the strength and weakness of the
This study also allows a global vision of the adaptation of public bikes in Spain in comparison with
their intercessors in Europe.
In addition, the authors will propose a list of design recommendations for new locations and future
extensions from two different points of view.
First, the quantitative data obtained from the various systems analyzed during the study, gives an
idea of the level of acceptance by citizens of public bikes systems.
For second instance, a list of other qualitative recommendations taking from the public systems which
are currently operating, are given in the second part of the conclusions.
Thus, once the review of public bikes systems is completed, the authors would like to reflect that the
bicycle can be a feasible mode of urban transport within a new culture of sustainable mobility.
To finish, this study was developed due to the researching labour made in the Projects: PRO-BIKE.
Planning and management methodologies for promoting cycling strategies financed by CEDEX-
Ministerio de Fomento, under reference number PT-2007-025-10IAPM (conditions regulated by Order
FOM/2339/2006, of 5 July) and Sustainable Urban Mobility in local study/work trips. Application to the
case of the University of Burgos, financed by Junta de Castilla y Len, under reference number
BU022A08 (conditions regulated by Order EDU/1446/2006, of 15 September; modified by Order
EDU/1567/2007, of 28 September).
Cycle-hire - The new travel option for central London
Paul Le Masurier and Fiona Shore, MVA Consultancy, UK; James Hiett, Transport for London, UK
For five good reasons (sustainability, environment, reduced pollution, health and fitness) Transport for
London (TfL) is keen to reduce the strain on existing transport infrastructure, especially private car
use. TfL envisaged that a cycle-hire scheme, which already exists in several European cities, could
achieve such an aim. The study, undertaken by MVA Consultancy, assessed the feasibility and
viability of implementing a city-bike scheme in central London.
A business case for implementing a London scheme needed to be devised in order to convince TfL
themselves, potential contractors/operators and ultimately financers that such a scheme should
become a reality. The outcome of the business case is that the scheme will be established in central
London this summer.
Key inputs to the business case were robust evidence of the likely demand for the proposed cycle-
hire scheme and insight into the likely impact on usage and revenues of different subscription, tariff
and operational regimes. The key deliverable from the study was a demand forecasting model
capable of predicting the demand, revenue and distribution of cycle-hire trips under different tariff
This Paper will:
describe how the London cycle scheme will operate;
the technical processes developed to construct a model to predict the demand of such a scheme in
provide insight into the spatial distribution of cycle-hire trips;
provide a profile of expected cycle-hirers, and types of trip that will become cycle-hire trips; and
how demand varies according to tariff structure (eg existence, or otherwise, of a free period, and
different subsequent hourly charges), level of deposit, level and period of subscriptions, etc.
In our conclusions, we will consider the pros and cons of our modelling approach, the significance of
our findings for the provision / extension of city-bike schemes in London.
Session Number: 3, 16:00 - 18:00, Monday 11 October 2010
Active travel in Edinburgh
Nazan Kocak and Phil Noble, The City of Edinburgh Council, UK
The City of Edinburgh Council has underlined its on-going commitments to Active Travel by being the
only city in the UK to sign up to the Charter of Brussels, a network of cities aiming to increase cycling,
and having the highest walking mode share in Scotland.
This paper based on the current development of an Active Travel Action Plan (ATAP) for Edinburgh.
When complete, the plan will sets out short, medium and long term actions to achieve the Cities
ambitious 15% cycling mode share target by 2020 (currently 2%, SHS 2007-8) and to maintain or
improve on current high levels of walking (currently 34%, SHS 2007-8). It will contribute towards
making Edinburgh’s transport system one of the most environmentally friendly, healthiest and most
accessible in northern Europe by 2030.
While walking and cycling face similar issues including safety, exposure to traffic and weather,
commuting distances and funding challenges, they are also quite distinct activities. For example most
cycling happens on road; most walking on footways. This is why the cities ATAP will consist of three
actions specific to walking;
actions specific to cycling; and
joint actions that will address the common issues/challenges in walking and cycling.
The paper will initially make an assessment of the policies adopted by cities around Europe that have
started from much lower level of cycling, and have moved significantly towards, or have exceeded, a
15% cycling mode share and cities that have transformed their walking/pedestrian environment
through combination of place making and transport initiates. Thereafter, the paper will discuss the
cities approach to prioritising development of the Edinburgh Active Travel Network which will consist
of a combination of the Child Cycle Network, Cycle Friendly City Network and the various types of
Strategic Pedestrian/Walking Corridors.
In the development of the ATAP, a combination of techniques will be used, looking at the cycling and
walking potential of different parts of the city on the one hand, and on the other hand at how best to
create a well connected, safe, convenient and pleasant cycle and walking environment suitable for all
While walking potential was assessed against a background of recorded levels of walking (from
Census 2001 Travel to Work Data) and the proportion of trips that are shorter than 2 km, cycling
potential was assessed against recorded levels of cycling (from Census 2001 Travel to Work Data),
the proportion of travel within the ideal cycling range of 2-5 km and also the topography (hilliness) of
The paper will later focus on the development of the Child Cycle Network and Cycle Friendly City
Network using this prioritisation system.
Child/Family Cycle Network – predominantly on quiet roads and off-street, aimed to feel safe and
secure for less confident cyclists including family groups and older unsupervised children.
Cycle Friendly City Network – aimed at making cycling anywhere in the city convenient, safe and
comfortable for adult utility cyclists.
Development of the Child Cycle Network was based on a different prioritisation process taking
maximising continuity this network won’t work if it has hazardous gaps
linking to key destinations a network is of no use if it leaves users short of their destination
access to the network for potential users.
The ATAP is in the early stages of development and will be finalised by the time of the conference.
The paper will present the results of analysis above and how it was used to prioritise planned
Bicycle roads: from infrastructures to the selection criteria of a path.
The case of Karditsa.
Vasilis Eleutherio and Avgi Vassi, National Technical University of Athens, GR
Within the framework of transferring knowledge between practice and research is the investigation of
the selection criteria of bicycle roads in the municipality with the most complete bicycle network in
Greece. It is reasonable that in planning and formulating a bicycle network, (the practice in our case,)
must not underestimate that the residents will decide to use the bike only when the road is attractive.
However, there are other criteria that determine the decision, such as security and the distance of the
path. This is the case of the research phase of our work.
Choosing bike paths in the city, as well as pedestrian paths, is related to the quality of the road
environment. When the quality is low, as usually in Greek cities, walking and cycling becomes
impossible. That is the reason for eliminating cycling and walking from the desired ways of transport,
particularly of young, elderly and disabled. These options are replaced by the car. The city of Karditsa
is a pioneer for Greece on the bicycle option. During 2001, a study for the construction of the
infrastructure of a bicycle network in the city took place. In that study, urban and circulatory objectives
were placed. At the same time another objective was to inform residents and stimulate them in order
to use the bike. Infrastructure for the bike was not needed in the areas of residence. Through the
everyday life, in the study, the place which needed the most the bicycle roads was the place with the
biggest car flow, where cycling becomes insecure and unpleasant. Therefore, most of the
infrastructure for the bike was constructed at the Centre of the city. It should be pointed that these
projects concerned also general interventions which aimed to gradually reconstruct the city, and turn
the public space to a healthier, friendlier and cleaner place.
The aim of the research, which followed the study, is to diagnose the selection criteria of cyclists for
their paths. The cyclists are divided in two categories: those who don’t use the exclusive infrastructure
for cycling, but also use high risk roads, and those who choose systematically to move through the
bike paths. The conclusion is that the experienced and younger cyclists, who use the bike every day,
will not be attracted from the new infrastructures while women, children and elderly people will use the
bicycle network, avoiding the dangerous streets of great traffic. This empirical conclusion was
confirmed in the case of Karditsa. Due to the research, extensive measurements and questionnaires
took place in the city of Karditsa in the period May-June 2005 and then again in the period of May-
June 2010. The objective was to of evaluate the bike network and diagnose the traffic behaviour of
the residents. Also, the research aims to show the example of Karditsa as a Bicycle City in
corresponding midsize Greek cities, in order to spread the use of the bicycle.
For this research:
The number of the cyclists, the pedestrians and the cars that passed by some characteristics points of
the network was measured
The number of the parked bicycles in the central city was also measured
Questionnaires about the route that a statistical sufficient sample of residents follows were given, and
Social research on a reliable sample of cyclists took place.
The results and the conclusions of the research are updated after the evaluation of the network in
May- June 2010 in exactly the same way as in 2005. In this study the conclusions from the interface
of the practice of 2001 and the research of 2005, but also of 2010 are presented.
Assessing the risk to London cyclists from Mayoral policy
Ben Lewis, Transport for London, UK
Declaring 2010 the year of the bicycle, the Mayor of London has set an ambitious target for cycling
levels in London with a mode share of 5% of all trips by 2025, effectively a quadrupling of the level of
cycling activity in London. Transport for London recently reported a 91% rise in cycling on its road
network since 2001. By investigating the relationship between vehicle flow and cycle accidents this
paper seeks to determine a methodology for assessing the risk to cyclists using modern methods of
13% of all reported road traffic collisions in Greater London in 2007 resulted in injury to pedal cyclists
compared to 22% for pedestrians. In terms of modal share, pedal cyclists account for less than 2% of
all trips in London compared to 20% for pedestrians.
As pedal cycle activity in London is expected to quadruple by 2025 from 2001 levels there is a
growing awareness among transport professionals that current methods of policy appraisal and
evaluation are insufficient in being able to reflect the resulting change in modal share. Planners need
practical tools to consider the impact of development on safety targets, a key requirement for the
promotion of cycling.
Current advice by the Department for Transport is to use an exponent function to estimate accident
numbers resulting from an increase in average flow. This paper reviews DfT methodology using
London data and seeks to provide policy makers with a more robust methodology using negative
binomial regression of site-specific road characteristics: mode share, speed, delay, population
density, length of link and number of lanes were tested for significance and a new accident exponent
function was found.
The results of this study indicate that a negative binomial regression model that uses publicly
available data provides a rigorous methodology that can be used to assess the risk that pedal cyclists
face on the road network on a link by link basis.
It was found that the exposure rate for central and inner London is up to five times larger using the
bespoke model output rather than aggregated statistics. The model predicts that a quadrupling of
cycle activity from 2001 levels without the inclusion of any additional complementary safety measures
would result in a 50% increase in accidents in central London and a 30% increase in inner London.
Notably, the year variable was included as a proxy for the memory effect within the zone but was
found to be highly insignificant. That is, the null hypothesis that drivers within the zone have become
more used to sharing the road space with pedal cycles over time and adjusted their driving behaviour
accordingly was rejected. However, for policy makers, it is encouraging that the model predicts
increasing cycling levels in inner London should have a larger effect on reducing relative accident
exposure than within central London.
It is recommended that the number of accidents predicted by the new model is used to assess the
success of Mayoral policy. Cycling superhighways and cycle hire schemes may achieve the Mayors
aim of increasing mode share, but the true success will be measured in terms of public safety.