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The 2011-2016 World Outlook
for Affiliate Marketing
Services
By
Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
Chaired Professor of Management Science
INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)
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COPYRIGHT NOTICE
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About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is Physioeconomics: the basis for long-run economic growth (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.
Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology, and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North
America, and Europe.
About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.
Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.
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About Icon Group International, Inc.
Icon Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs.
U.S.-owned and operated, Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases, and global/regional market
data, industry and country publications.
Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 190 countries, management studies are generally
organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. The human resource series covers minimum
wages, child labor, unionization and collective bargaining. The international law series covers media control and
censorship, search and seizure, and trial justice and punishment. The diversity management series covers a variety of
environmental context drivers that effect global operations. These include women’s rights, children’s rights,
discrimination/racism, and religious forces and risks. Global strategic planning studies cover economic risk
assessments, political risk assessments, foreign direct investment strategy, intellectual property strategy, and export
strategies. Financial management studies cover taxes and tariffs. Global marketing studies focus on target segments
(e.g. seniors, children, women) and strategic marketing planning.
Country Studies: Often managers need an in-depth, yet broad and up-to-date understanding of a country’s strategic
market potential and situation before the first field trip or investment proposal. There are over 190 country studies
available. Each study consists of analysis, statistics, forecasts, and information of relevance to managers. The studies
are continually updated to insure that the reports have the most relevant information available. In addition to raw
information, the reports provide relevant analyses which put a more general perspective on a country (seen in the
context of relative performance vis-à-vis benchmarks).
Industry Studies: Companies are racing to become more international, if not global in their strategies. For over 2000
product/industry categories, these reports give the reader a concise summary of latent market forecasts, pro-forma
financials, import competition profiles, contacts, key references and trends across 200 countries of the world. Some
reports focus on a particular product and region (up to four regions per product), while others focus on a product
within a particular country.
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Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION 11
1.1 Overview 11
1.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 11
1.3 The Methodology 12
1.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 14
1.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 15
1.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 16
1.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 16
1.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 17
1.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 17
1.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 17
2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 19
2.1 The Worldwide Market Potential 19
3 AFRICA 21
3.1 Executive Summary 21
3.2 Algeria 22
3.3 Angola 23
3.4 Benin 24
3.5 Botswana 24
3.6 Burkina Faso 25
3.7 Burundi 26
3.8 Cameroon 26
3.9 Cape Verde 27
3.10 Central African Republic 28
3.11 Chad 28
3.12 Comoros 29
3.13 Congo (formerly Zaire) 30
3.14 Cote d'Ivoire 31
3.15 Djibouti 31
3.16 Egypt 32
3.17 Equatorial Guinea 33
3.18 Ethiopia 33
3.19 Gabon 34
3.20 Ghana 35
3.21 Guinea 36
3.22 Guinea-Bissau 36
3.23 Kenya 37
3.24 Lesotho 38
3.25 Liberia 38
3.26 Libya 39
3.27 Madagascar 40
3.28 Malawi 40
3.29 Mali 41
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3.30 Mauritania 42
3.31 Mauritius 42
3.32 Morocco 43
3.33 Mozambique 44
3.34 Namibia 44
3.35 Niger 45
3.36 Nigeria 46
3.37 Republic of Congo 47
3.38 Reunion 47
3.39 Rwanda 48
3.40 Sao Tome E Principe 49
3.41 Senegal 49
3.42 Sierra Leone 50
3.43 Somalia 51
3.44 South Africa 51
3.45 Sudan 52
3.46 Swaziland 53
3.47 Tanzania 53
3.48 The Gambia 54
3.49 Togo 55
3.50 Tunisia 56
3.51 Uganda 57
3.52 Western Sahara 57
3.53 Zambia 58
3.54 Zimbabwe 59
4 ASIA & OCEANA 60
4.1 Executive Summary 60
4.2 American Samoa 61
4.3 Australia 62
4.4 Bangladesh 63
4.5 Bhutan 64
4.6 Brunei 64
4.7 Burma 65
4.8 Cambodia 66
4.9 China 66
4.10 Christmas Island 67
4.11 Cook Islands 68
4.12 Fiji 68
4.13 French Polynesia 69
4.14 Guam 70
4.15 Hong Kong 70
4.16 India 71
4.17 Indonesia 72
4.18 Japan 73
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4.19 Kiribati 74
4.20 Laos 74
4.21 Macau 75
4.22 Malaysia 76
4.23 Maldives 77
4.24 Marshall Islands 77
4.25 Micronesia Federation 78
4.26 Mongolia 79
4.27 Nauru 79
4.28 Nepal 80
4.29 New Caledonia 81
4.30 New Zealand 81
4.31 Niue 82
4.32 Norfolk Island 83
4.33 North Korea 83
4.34 Palau 84
4.35 Papua New Guinea 85
4.36 Philippines 85
4.37 Seychelles 86
4.38 Singapore 87
4.39 Solomon Islands 87
4.40 South Korea 88
4.41 Sri Lanka 89
4.42 Taiwan 89
4.43 Thailand 90
4.44 The Northern Mariana Island 91
4.45 Tokelau 92
4.46 Tonga 92
4.47 Tuvalu 93
4.48 Vanuatu 94
4.49 Vietnam 94
4.50 Wallis and Futuna 95
4.51 Western Samoa 96
5 EUROPE 97
5.1 Executive Summary 97
5.2 Albania 98
5.3 Andorra 99
5.4 Austria 100
5.5 Belarus 101
5.6 Belgium 102
5.7 Bosnia and Herzegovina 103
5.8 Bulgaria 103
5.9 Croatia 104
5.10 Cyprus 105
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5.11 Czech Republic 105
5.12 Denmark 106
5.13 Estonia 107
5.14 Finland 108
5.15 France 109
5.16 Georgia 110
5.17 Germany 110
5.18 Greece 111
5.19 Hungary 112
5.20 Iceland 113
5.21 Ireland 114
5.22 Italy 114
5.23 Kazakhstan 115
5.24 Latvia 116
5.25 Liechtenstein 117
5.26 Lithuania 118
5.27 Luxembourg 118
5.28 Malta 119
5.29 Moldova 120
5.30 Monaco 120
5.31 Norway 121
5.32 Poland 122
5.33 Portugal 123
5.34 Romania 124
5.35 Russia 125
5.36 San Marino 126
5.37 Slovakia 126
5.38 Slovenia 127
5.39 Spain 128
5.40 Sweden 129
5.41 Switzerland 130
5.42 The Netherlands 131
5.43 The United Kingdom 132
5.44 Ukraine 133
6 THE AMERICAS & THE CARIBBEAN 134
6.1 Executive Summary 134
6.2 Antigua and Barbuda 135
6.3 Argentina 136
6.4 Aruba 137
6.5 Barbados 137
6.6 Belize 138
6.7 Bermuda 139
6.8 Bolivia 139
6.9 Brazil 140
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6.10 Canada 141
6.11 Chile 142
6.12 Colombia 143
6.13 Costa Rica 144
6.14 Cuba 145
6.15 Dominica 146
6.16 Dominican Republic 146
6.17 Ecuador 147
6.18 El Salvador 148
6.19 French Guiana 148
6.20 Greenland 149
6.21 Grenada 150
6.22 Guadeloupe 150
6.23 Guatemala 151
6.24 Guyana 152
6.25 Haiti 152
6.26 Honduras 153
6.27 Jamaica 154
6.28 Martinique 154
6.29 Mexico 155
6.30 Nicaragua 156
6.31 Panama 157
6.32 Paraguay 158
6.33 Peru 159
6.34 Puerto Rico 160
6.35 St. Kitts and Nevis 161
6.36 St. Lucia 161
6.37 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 162
6.38 Suriname 163
6.39 The Bahamas 163
6.40 The British Virgin Islands 164
6.41 The Cayman Islands 165
6.42 The Falkland Islands 165
6.43 The Netherlands Antilles 166
6.44 The U.S. Virgin Islands 167
6.45 The United States 167
6.46 Trinidad and Tobago 168
6.47 Uruguay 169
6.48 Venezuela 169
7 THE MIDDLE EAST 171
7.1 Executive Summary 171
7.2 Afghanistan 172
7.3 Armenia 173
7.4 Azerbaijan 174
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7.5 Bahrain 175
7.6 Iran 176
7.7 Iraq 177
7.8 Israel 178
7.9 Jordan 178
7.10 Kuwait 179
7.11 Kyrgyzstan 180
7.12 Lebanon 180
7.13 Oman 181
7.14 Pakistan 182
7.15 Palestine 183
7.16 Qatar 183
7.17 Saudi Arabia 184
7.18 Syrian Arab Republic 185
7.19 Tajikistan 186
7.20 The United Arab Emirates 186
7.21 Turkey 187
7.22 Turkmenistan 188
7.23 Uzbekistan 188
7.24 Yemen 189
8 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 191
8.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 191
8.2 Icon Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 192
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1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 OVERVIEW
This study covers the world outlook for affiliate marketing services across more than 200
countries. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry
earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the
country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to
quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental
economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are
created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand,
nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities
that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate
and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simpl