The 2011-2016 Outlook for Organ and Electric Organ Parts Excluding Benches in the United States

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The 2011-2016 Outlook for Organ and Electric Organ Parts Excluding Benches in the United States Powered By Docstoc
					   The 2011-2016 Outlook for Organ and
 Electric Organ Parts Excluding Benches in
             the United States




                                          by
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                       Chaired Professor of Management Science
                     INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




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                                          About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Chaired Professor of Management Science at INSEAD where he has taught courses on
global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University,
UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six
books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which
foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His
latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also
published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the
Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal
of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of
Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also
on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.


                                          About this Series
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct
supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Chaired Professor of Management Science, at INSEAD. The
methodology relies on historical figures across states. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future
levels of latent demand.


                                        Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




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    Contents                                                                                         v


Table of Contents
1       INTRODUCTION                                                                             9
     1.1      Overview                                                                           9
     1.2      What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                              9
     1.3      The Methodology                                                                   10
        1.3.1   Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  11
        1.3.2   Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 12
        1.3.3   Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               12
        1.3.4   Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                12
        1.3.5   Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       13
        1.3.6   Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            13
2       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                     14
     2.1   Latent Demand in The US                                                              15
3       FAR WEST                                                                                16
     3.1    Executive Summary                                                                   16
     3.2    Latent Demand by Year - Alaska                                                      17
     3.3    Cities Sorted by Rank - Alaska                                                      18
     3.4    Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Alaska                                                   19
     3.5    Latent Demand by Year - California                                                  20
     3.6    Cities Sorted by Rank - California                                                  21
     3.7    Cities Sorted by Zipcode - California                                               37
     3.8    Latent Demand by Year - Hawaii                                                      54
     3.9    Cities Sorted by Rank - Hawaii                                                      55
     3.10   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Hawaii                                                   57
     3.11   Latent Demand by Year - Nevada                                                      58
     3.12   Cities Sorted by Rank - Nevada                                                      59
     3.13   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Nevada                                                   60
     3.14   Latent Demand by Year - Oregon                                                      61
     3.15   Cities Sorted by Rank - Oregon                                                      62
     3.16   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Oregon                                                   65
     3.17   Latent Demand by Year - Washington                                                  67
     3.18   Cities Sorted by Rank - Washington                                                  68
     3.19   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Washington                                               73
4       GREAT LAKES                                                                             79
     4.1   Executive Summary                                                                    79
     4.2   Latent Demand by Year - Illinois                                                     80
     4.3   Cities Sorted by Rank - Illinois                                                     81
     4.4   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Illinois                                                  90
     4.5   Latent Demand by Year - Indiana                                                     100
     4.6   Cities Sorted by Rank - Indiana                                                     101
     4.7   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Indiana                                                  105
     4.8   Latent Demand by Year - Michigan                                                    108
     4.9   Cities Sorted by Rank - Michigan                                                    109
     4.10  Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Michigan                                                 114
     4.11  Latent Demand by Year - Ohio                                                        120
     4.12  Cities Sorted by Rank - Ohio                                                        121
     4.13  Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Ohio                                                     129
     4.14  Latent Demand by Year - Wisconsin                                                   137
     4.15  Cities Sorted by Rank - Wisconsin                                                   138
     4.16  Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Wisconsin                                                144


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5       MID-ATLANTIC                                                                      150
     5.1    Executive Summary                                                             150
     5.2    Latent Demand by Year - Delaware                                              151
     5.3    Cities Sorted by Rank - Delaware                                              152
     5.4    Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Delaware                                           153
     5.5    Latent Demand by Year - District of Columbia                                  153
     5.6    Cities Sorted by Rank - District of Columbia                                  155
     5.7    Cities Sorted by Zipcode - District of Columbia                               155
     5.8    Latent Demand by Year - Maryland                                              156
     5.9    Cities Sorted by Rank - Maryland                                              157
     5.10   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Maryland                                           162
     5.11   Latent Demand by Year - New Jersey                                            168
     5.12   Cities Sorted by Rank - New Jersey                                            169
     5.13   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - New Jersey                                         177
     5.14   Latent Demand by Year - New York                                              185
     5.15   Cities Sorted by Rank - New York                                              186
     5.16   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - New York                                           203
     5.17   Latent Demand by Year - Pennsylvania                                          220
     5.18   Cities Sorted by Rank - Pennsylvania                                          221
     5.19   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Pennsylvania                                       229
6       NEW ENGLAND                                                                       237
     6.1   Executive Summary                                                              237
     6.2   Latent Demand by Year - Connecticut                                            238
     6.3   Cities Sorted by Rank - Connecticut                                            239
     6.4   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Connecticut                                         243
     6.5   Latent Demand by Year - Maine                                                  248
     6.6   Cities Sorted by Rank - Maine                                                  249
     6.7   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Maine                                               251
     6.8   Latent Demand by Year - Massachusetts                                          254
     6.9   Cities Sorted by Rank - Massachusetts                                          255
     6.10  Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Massachusetts                                       262
     6.11  Latent Demand by Year - New Hampshire                                          270
     6.12  Cities Sorted by Rank - New Hampshire                                          271
     6.13  Cities Sorted by Zipcode - New Hampshire                                       274
     6.14  Latent Demand by Year - Rhode Island                                           277
     6.15  Cities Sorted by Rank - Rhode Island                                           278
     6.16  Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Rhode Island                                        279
     6.17  Latent Demand by Year - Vermont                                                281
     6.18  Cities Sorted by Rank - Vermont                                                282
     6.19  Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Vermont                                             283
7       PLAINS                                                                            285
     7.1    Executive Summary                                                             285
     7.2    Latent Demand by Year - Iowa                                                  287
     7.3    Cities Sorted by Rank - Iowa                                                  288
     7.4    Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Iowa                                               290
     7.5    Latent Demand by Year - Kansas                                                292
     7.6    Cities Sorted by Rank - Kansas                                                293
     7.7    Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Kansas                                             295
     7.8    Latent Demand by Year - Minnesota                                             297
     7.9    Cities Sorted by Rank - Minnesota                                             298
     7.10   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Minnesota                                          302
     7.11   Latent Demand by Year - Missouri                                              307


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     7.12      Cities Sorted by Rank - Missouri                                      308
     7.13      Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Missouri                                   312
     7.14      Latent Demand by Year - Nebraska                                      316
     7.15      Cities Sorted by Rank - Nebraska                                      317
     7.16      Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Nebraska                                   318
     7.17      Latent Demand by Year - North Dakota                                  319
     7.18      Cities Sorted by Rank - North Dakota                                  320
     7.19      Cities Sorted by Zipcode - North Dakota                               321
     7.20      Latent Demand by Year - South Dakota                                  322
     7.21      Cities Sorted by Rank - South Dakota                                  323
     7.22      Cities Sorted by Zipcode - South Dakota                               324
8       ROCKIES                                                                      325
     8.1   Executive Summary                                                         325
     8.2   Latent Demand by Year - Colorado                                          326
     8.3   Cities Sorted by Rank - Colorado                                          327
     8.4   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Colorado                                       330
     8.5   Latent Demand by Year - Idaho                                             333
     8.6   Cities Sorted by Rank - Idaho                                             334
     8.7   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Idaho                                          335
     8.8   Latent Demand by Year - Montana                                           336
     8.9   Cities Sorted by Rank - Montana                                           337
     8.10  Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Montana                                        338
     8.11  Latent Demand by Year - Utah                                              339
     8.12  Cities Sorted by Rank - Utah                                              340
     8.13  Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Utah                                           342
     8.14  Latent Demand by Year - Wyoming                                           345
     8.15  Cities Sorted by Rank - Wyoming                                           346
     8.16  Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Wyoming                                        347
9       SOUTHEAST                                                                    348
     9.1    Executive Summary                                                        348
     9.2    Latent Demand by Year - Alabama                                          349
     9.3    Cities Sorted by Rank - Alabama                                          350
     9.4    Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Alabama                                       353
     9.5    Latent Demand by Year - Arkansas                                         356
     9.6    Cities Sorted by Rank - Arkansas                                         357
     9.7    Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Arkansas                                      359
     9.8    Latent Demand by Year - Florida                                          361
     9.9    Cities Sorted by Rank - Florida                                          362
     9.10   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Florida                                       374
     9.11   Latent Demand by Year - Georgia                                          385
     9.12   Cities Sorted by Rank - Georgia                                          386
     9.13   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Georgia                                       390
     9.14   Latent Demand by Year - Kentucky                                         394
     9.15   Cities Sorted by Rank - Kentucky                                         395
     9.16   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Kentucky                                      397
     9.17   Latent Demand by Year - Louisiana                                        400
     9.18   Cities Sorted by Rank - Louisiana                                        401
     9.19   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Louisiana                                     404
     9.20   Latent Demand by Year - Mississippi                                      406
     9.21   Cities Sorted by Rank - Mississippi                                      407
     9.22   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Mississippi                                   409
     9.23   Latent Demand by Year - North Carolina                                   411


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     9.24   Cities Sorted by Rank - North Carolina                                    412
     9.25   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - North Carolina                                 416
     9.26   Latent Demand by Year - South Carolina                                    420
     9.27   Cities Sorted by Rank - South Carolina                                    421
     9.28   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - South Carolina                                 423
     9.29   Latent Demand by Year - Tennessee                                         426
     9.30   Cities Sorted by Rank - Tennessee                                         427
     9.31   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Tennessee                                      430
     9.32   Latent Demand by Year - Virginia                                          433
     9.33   Cities Sorted by Rank - Virginia                                          434
     9.34   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Virginia                                       438
     9.35   Latent Demand by Year - West Virginia                                     441
     9.36   Cities Sorted by Rank - West Virginia                                     442
     9.37   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - West Virginia                                  443
10      SOUTHWEST                                                                     444
     10.1   Executive Summary                                                         444
     10.2   Latent Demand by Year - Arizona                                           445
     10.3   Cities Sorted by Rank - Arizona                                           446
     10.4   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Arizona                                        448
     10.5   Latent Demand by Year - New Mexico                                        451
     10.6   Cities Sorted by Rank - New Mexico                                        452
     10.7   Cities Sorted by Zipcode - New Mexico                                     453
     10.8   Latent Demand by Year - Oklahoma                                          455
     10.9   Cities Sorted by Rank - Oklahoma                                          456
     10.10 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Oklahoma                                        458
     10.11 Latent Demand by Year - Texas                                              460
     10.12 Cities Sorted by Rank - Texas                                              461
     10.13 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Texas                                           471
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 Summary of Findings                                                                                                     9


1     INTRODUCTION
1.1    OVERVIEW

This study covers the latent demand outlook for organ and electric organ parts excluding benches across the states
and cities of the United States. Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.)
estimates are given across some 7,700 cities in the United States. For each city in question, the percent share the city
is of it’s state and of the United States is reported. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge
a city vis-à-vis others. This statistical approach can prove very useful to distribution and/or sales force strategies.
Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each state and city, latent demand
estimates are created for organ and electric organ parts excluding benches. This report does not discuss the specific
players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not
consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an
aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.

This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in
virtually all of the cities in the United States). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the
P.I.E., for organ and electric organ parts excluding benches in the United States. It also shows how the P.I.E. is
divided and concentrated across the cities and regional markets of the United States. For each state, I also show my
estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was
employed that is often taught in courses on strategic planning at graduate schools of business.


1.2    WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.?

The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not
observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market
requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand,
therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes
accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.)
or total revenues (not profit) if the United States is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total
revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be
latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the
P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same
value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).

The latent demand for organ and electric organ parts excluding benches in the United States is not actual or historic
sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be either lower or higher than actual sales if a
market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of
factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like
behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a market.

For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues
(i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S.
dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends). If inflation rates vary in a
substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (not adjusted for
inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution
inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.

As mentioned in the introduction, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective
of the players or products involved. In fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in
their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced


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    Summary of Findings                                                                                                10

by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be latent demand for organ and
electric organ parts excluding benches at the aggregate level. Product and service offerings, and the actual identity of
the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.


1.3     THE METHODOLOGY

In order to estimate the latent demand for organ and electric organ parts excluding benches across the states and cites
of the United States, I used a multi-stage appro
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for organ and electric organ parts excluding benches across the states and cities of the United States. Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across some 7,700 cities in the United States. For each city in question, the percent share the city is of it’s state and of the United States is reported. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. This statistical approach can prove very useful to distribution and/or sales force strategies. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each state and city, latent demand estimates are created for organ and electric organ parts excluding benches. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities in the United States). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E., for organ and electric organ parts excluding benches in the United States. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided and concentrated across the cities and regional markets of the United States. For each state, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
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