One Pager Competition Market - Excel by jpl19431

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									One-Pager Instructions

1. Enter ticker in cell b11

2. Press Update Ticker button in cell b10

3. Go to StockVal on the excel toolbar and choose Update (or press Alt F5); all data highlighted
in blue plus the chart will be updated

4. Input the information highlighted in red in the spreadsheet

5. Indicate whether each of the items is a +/-/= to an overweight recommendation (column j)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 168
PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY                                      PROCT ER & GAMBLE COMPANY (PG)
                                                              PRICE 89.8 DATE 07-18-2003                                                                                                                                                                         144
One Procter & Gamble Plaza                                    StockVal®                                                                                                                                                                                          120
Cincinnati, OH 45202
                                                      100                                                                                                                                                                                                        100
                                                       84                                                                                                                                                                                                            84
                                                       72                                                                                                                                                                                                            72
Ticker                     PG                          60                                                                                                                                                                                                            60
Price                      $89.80                      52                                                                                                                                                                                                            52
                                                       44                                                                                                                                                                                                            44
SPX                        $993.32
30-yr Treasury (%)         3.98                        36                                                                                                                                                                                                            36
                                                       32                                                                                                                                                                                                            32
Date                       July 22, 2003               28                                                                                                                                                                                                            28
Analyst                    Beth Blue                   24                                                                                                                                                                                                            24
Stock Rating               Under                       20                                                                                                                                                                                                            20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 The Ohio State University
Sector                     Consumer Staples            16                                                                                                                                                        Fisher College of Business                      16
Sector Rating              Under                        1993           1994       1995           1996           1997                 1998                 1999           2000         2001              2002       2003           2004        2005             2006
                                                      Price Change      %                   Diff SP5            First Call Data                                 2003         2004       2005                         Data Page # 1
Institutional %            58%                        1-Week         1.40                        1.88           Mean Estimate                                   4.07         4.49         NE                Revenues ($Mil)                             42,626
Insider %                  5%                         4-Weeks       -0.67                      -0.54            Change                                         +13%         +10%                            Market Value ($Mil)                        125,343
                                                      QTD            0.70                      -1.24            High                                            4.08         4.54                           Shares Out (Mil)                            1,395.8
                                                      YTD            4.49                      -8.41            Low                                             4.03         4.38                           Daily Volume (Thou)                           3,339
                                                      2002           8.61                      31.97            Total                                            11           11                            Daily Volume ($Mil)                           299.8
                                                      2001           0.88                      13.92            # Up                                               9          10                            Dividend Estimate                              1.82
                                                      2000         -28.41                     -18.27            # Down                                             1            0                           Payout Ratio                                   45%
                                                      1999          19.99                        0.46           House Estimate                                                                              Retention Rate                                 55%
                                                          FYE Jun 2002 EPS                  3.60                PE Ratio                                        22.1         20.0             NE            Dividend Yield                               2.03%



BUSINESS

 The Procter & Gamble Company manufactures and markets more than 250 products to more than five billion consumers in 130 countries throughout the world. The Company
 categorizes its business operations as follows: Baby, Feminine and Family Care, Fabric and Home Care, Beauty Care, Health Care, and Food & Beverage. The Company acquired the
 Clairol business from Bristol-Myers Squibb Company in November 2001. Clairol is a manufacturer of hair color and hair care products.




VALUATION

                           Earnings                                     2002                      $3.60                                   2003                            $4.07                          2004                      $4.49
                           P/E                                                                    24.94                                                                   22.06                                                    20.00
                           SPX Earnings                                                          $46.04                                                                  $52.00                                                   $57.00
                           SPX P/E                                                                21.58                                                                   19.10                                                    17.43
                           Relative                                                                1.16                                                                    1.16                                                     1.15
                           Rel (SP5) P/E (TTM) 10-yr Avg                                           1.01

PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY (PG) Price 89.8                                                                   StockVal®                PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY (PG) Price 89.8                                                                        StockVal®
         1993   1994      1995     1996    1997      1998      1999    2000    2001     2002      2003       2004        2005                    1993      1994      1995     1996    1997       1998     1999     2000    2001     2002     2003      2004      2005
2.0                                                                                                                                 2.8
1.6                                                                                                             HI       1.76       2.4                                                                                                                 HI       2.49
1.3                                                                                                             LO       0.60                                                                                                                           LO       0.81
                                                                                                                ME       1.20       2.0                                                                                                                 ME       1.56
1.0                                                                                                             CU       1.44                                                                                                                           CU       2.07
                                                                                                                                    1.6
0.8
                                                                                                                                    1.2
0.6                                                                                                             07-16-1993                                                                                                                               07-16-1993
0.5                                                                                                             07-18-2003          0.8                                                                                                                  07-18-2003
                    PRICE RELATIVE TO S&P 500 COMPOSITE ADJUSTED (SP5A) M-Wtd                                                                              PRICE / SALES RELATIVE TO S&P 500 COMPOSITE ADJUSTED (SP5A) M-Wtd
1.6                                                                                                                                 1.00

1.4                                                                                                             HI       1.50       0.95                                                                                                                HI       1.00
                                                                                                                LO       0.65       0.90                                                                                                                LO       0.76
1.2                                                                                                             ME       1.22                                                                                                                           ME       0.85
                                                                                                                CU       1.15       0.85                                                                                                                CU       0.80
1.0
                                                                                                                                    0.81
0.8                                                                                                                                 0.77
                                                                                                                07-16-1993                                                                                                                               09-30-1993
0.6                                                                                                             07-18-2003          0.73                                                                                                                 03-31-2003
         PRICE / YR-FORWARD EPS ESTS RELATIVE TO S&P 500 COMPOSITE ADJUSTED (SP5A) M-Wtd                                                                REVENUE-PER-SHARE RELATIVE TO S&P 500 COMPOSITE ADJUSTED (SP5A) M-Wtd
1.3                                                                                                                                 2.0
                                                                                                                HI       1.27
1.2                                                                                                             LO       0.84       1.8                                                                                                                 HI       1.82
1.1                                                                                                             ME       0.97                                                                                                                           LO       1.14
                                                                                                                CU       1.26       1.6                                                                                                                 ME       1.31
1.0                                                                                                             FY1      1.21                                                                                                                           CU       1.81
                                                                                                                                    1.4
                                                                                                                FY2      1.18
0.9
                                                                                                                                    1.2
                                                                                                                09-30-1993                                                                                                                               09-30-1993
0.8                                                                                                             03-31-2003          1.0                                                                                                                  03-31-2003
                  EARNINGS RELATIVE TO S&P 500 COMPOSITE ADJUSTED (SP5A) M-Wtd                                                                   NET PROFIT MARGIN ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO S&P 500 COMPOSITE ADJUSTED (SP5A) M-Wtd
                                                                                                                          132       PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY (PG) Price 89.8                                                                        StockVal®
      PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY (PG)
      StockVal®        PRICE 89.8 DATE 07-18-2003                                                                         124             1993          1994      1995      1996     1997       1998      1999      2000     2001     2002      2003          2004
                                                                                                                                    4.0
116                                                                                                                       116
108                                                                                                                       108 3.6
102                                                                                                                       102 3.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        HI       3.63
 94                                                                                                                         94 2.8                                                                                                                      LO       1.10
 88                                                                                                                         88 2.4                                                                                                                      ME       1.95
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        CU       2.67
 82                                                                                                                         82
                                                                                                                               2.0
 78                                                                                                                         78
                                                                                                                                    1.6
 72                                                                                                                         72
 68                                                                                                                         68 1.2                                                                                                                       07-16-1993
 64                                                                                                                         64 0.8                                                                                                                       07-18-2003
 60                                                                                                                         60                          PRICE / BOOK VALUE RELATIVE TO S&P 500 COMPOSITE ADJUSTED (SP5A) M-Wtd
                                                                                                                                    2.8
 56                                                                                                                         56
                                                                                      The Ohio State University
                                                                                      Fisher College of Business                    2.6
 52                                                                                                                         52
  1998                 1999               2000                  2001             2002                    2003                       2.4
+2                                                                                                                         +2                                                                                                                           HI       2.71
                                                                                                                                    2.2                                                                                                                 LO       1.38
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ME       1.69
+1                                                                                                                         +1 2.0                                                                                                                       CU       2.49
                                                                                                                                    1.8
 0                                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                    1.6
-1                                                                                                                          -1
                                                                                                                                    1.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         09-30-1993
-2                                                                                                                          -2 1.2                                                                                                                       03-31-2003
                                     CROSSOVER INDEX (OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD)                                                                               RETURN ON EQUITY RELATIVE TO S&P 500 COMPOSITE ADJUSTED (SP5A) M-Wtd

Comments: P/E ratio fell in 2002 and has been stable in 2003 while earnings have been growing very steadily. Valuation remaining stable, above historical levels, and strong compared
to the S&P.




                                                  Quarterly Summary                                                                                                                         Cash Flow Analysis
PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY (PG)                                                                               StockVal ®     PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY (PG)                                                                                                  StockVal ®
Price 89.800 07/18/03 FYE Jun                                                           Expected Report Date: 07/31/03     FYE Jun
FINANCIALS                            Fiscal Year End                                       6                                             5-Yr Hist G (%)                                                  9.5                                                        5-Yr Proj G (%)                                      10.0

                                                          Quarterly Summary                                                                                                                                                        Cash Flow Analysis
PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY (PG)                                                                                                                 StockVal ®     PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY (PG)                                                                                                                         StockVal ®
Price 89.800 07/18/03 FYE Jun                                                                                  Expected Report Date: 07/31/03                FYE Jun
 Qtr    Data     2004        %chg    2003        %chg    2002       %chg   2001          %chg        2000           %chg        1999             %chg
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2002      % Chg             2001        % Chg        2000    % Chg             1999    % Chg          1998      % Chg
Sep     Revs     11,428.2E      6    10,796.0      11     9,766.0     -2       9,969.0          1      9,919.0            4       9,510.0               2
                                                                                                                                                            Net Income Reported ($ Mil)                  4352.0               49      2922.0         -18      3542.0        -6          3763.0             0   3780.0         11
        Earn                         1,576.18      17    1,344.77      8      1,241.50          -2    1,262.98            9      1,163.60             9
                                                                                                                                                          Accounting Adjustment                           706.0             -52       1475.0         114        688.0      79            385.0                     0.0
        EPS         1.23E      10       1.12       17       0.96       9         0.88           0           0.88          10           0.80          10 Net Income Adjusted                              5058.0               15      4397.0           4      4230.0        2           4148.0           10    3780.0         11
        Divs                           0.410        8      0.380       9        0.350           9       0.320             12          0.285          13       Depreciation & Amort                       1693.0             -25       2271.0           4      2191.0        2           2148.0           34    1598.0          7
                                                                                                                                                            Cash Flow Adjusted                           6751.0               1       6668.0           4      6421.0        2           6296.0           17    5378.0         10
Dec     Revs     11,614.5E      6    11,005.0       6    10,403.0      2      10,182.0          -4    10,588.0            7       9,934.0               3
                                                                                                                                                            Capital Expenditures                         1679.0             -32       2486.0         -18      3018.0        7           2828.0           11    2559.0         20
        Earn                         1,584.94      10    1,443.54     10      1,312.23          4     1,262.71            12     1,128.50               8 Free Cash Flow Adjusted                        5072.0               21      4182.0          23      3403.0        -2          3468.0           23    2819.0          2
        EPS         1.25E      11       1.13       10       1.03      11         0.93           6           0.88          13           0.78          10       Dividends Common ($ Mil)                   2135.4               9       1967.8           8      1826.8       11           1649.4           11    1480.2         11
                                                                                                                                                            Free Cash Flow After Dividends               2936.6               33      2214.2          40      1576.2       -13          1818.6           36    1338.8         -7
        Divs                           0.410        8      0.380       9        0.350           9       0.320             12          0.285          13

Mar     Revs     11,218.5E      5    10,656.0       8     9,900.0      4       9,511.0          -3     9,783.0            6       9,231.0               4 Net Cash From Operations                       7742.0               33      5804.0          24      4675.0       -16          5544.0           13    4885.0        -17
        Earn                         1,270.18       8    1,180.79     18       997.48           9      913.09         -12        1,042.78               9 Net Cash From Investing                        -6835.0        -271         -1843.0          66     -5345.0      -146          -2175.0          58    -5210.0      -152
                                                                                                                                                            Net Cash From Financing                       197.0                      -3014.0       -1438       -196.0      92           -2606.0     -586        -380.0        89
        EPS         1.06E      16       0.91        8       0.84      18         0.71       11              0.64      -11              0.72          11
                                                                               17.83893                                                                 Other Cash Flow s                                   17.0                       -56.0        -331        -13.0      28             -18.0          81      -96.0      -210
        Divs                           0.410        8      0.380       9        0.350           9       0.320             12          0.285          13 Change In Cash & Equiv                           1121.0               26       891.0                   -879.0                    745.0                  -801.0
Jun     Revs     11,398.0E      6    10,751.0E      6    10,169.0      6       9,582.0          -1     9,661.0            2       9,450.0               2                                                                           DuPont Analytics
                                                                                                                                                             PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY (PG)                                                                                                                         StockVal ®
        Earn                                             1,087.32     30       838.20           6      788.33             -1      795.74             16
                                                                                                                                                             Price 89.800 07/18/03 FYE Jun
        EPS                             0.86E      12       0.77      28         0.60           9           0.55          0            0.55          17                                        INT                 TAX                 ASSET

        Divs                           0.410        8      0.380       9        0.350           9       0.320             12          0.285          13                    MARGIN%           BURDEN          BURDEN%                    TURN           LEVERAGE

Year Revs        45,659.2E      6    43,208.0E      7    40,238.0      3      39,244.0          -2    39,951.0            5      38,125.0               3
                                                                                                                                                                                 EBIT          EBT                      T               Sales              Assets
        Earn                                             5,056.42     15      4,389.41          4     4,227.11            2      4,130.62            10                        -------         -------             1 - ----              -------            -------         ROE                   Acct             ROE

        EPS                             4.02E      12       3.60      15         3.12           6           2.95          4            2.85          11                       Sales            EBIT                   EBT              Assets               Equity          Rpt%                  Adj%            Adj%

        Divs                           1.640        8      1.520       9        1.400           9       1.280             12          1.140          13
                                                                                                                                                               2002              17.36           0.91                68.18                 1.07               2.92           33.85                 5.49            39.34
                                            First Call FY1 & FY2 Revision Trend                                                 StockVal®                      2001              13.79           0.85                63.30                 1.14               2.83           24.05                12.14            36.19
                             PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY (PG)                                                                                                     2000              15.66           0.88                63.98                 1.20               2.73           29.10                 5.65            34.75
                                                          FY1 JUN 2003
                                              CURRENT EST 4.07 UP 3.30% FROM JUL 2002
                                                                                                                                                               1999              17.02           0.90                64.46                 1.21               2.60           30.98                 3.17            34.15
                                                                                                                                                               1998              16.84           0.91                66.22                 1.27               2.41           31.13                 0.00            31.13
   4%
                                                                                                                   4.07        4.07           4.07
                                                                                                     4.06
   3%                                                                         4.05       4.05                                                                  1997              15.95           0.92                65.06                 1.29               2.33           28.74                 0.00            28.74
                                                                    4.03                                                                                       1996              14.60           0.91                65.24                 1.26               2.50           27.30                 0.00            27.30
   2%                                                     4.01
                                                                                                                                                               1995              13.40           0.89                66.13                 1.25               2.76           27.24                 0.51            27.75
                                                 3.99
   1%                         3.97    3.97                                                                                                                     1994              12.60           0.87                66.08                 1.20               3.10           27.17                 1.26            28.43
                   3.95                                                                                                                                        1993               2.96           0.39                77.08                 1.24               2.97           -7.95                32.36            24.41
          3.94
   0%
          7/02     8/02       9/02    10/02      11/02   12/02      1/03      2/03       3/03        4/03          5/03        6/03       LAST


                                                          FY2 JUN 2004                                                                                         1992              11.56           0.85                64.89                 1.32               2.65           22.28                 -0.73           21.55
                                              CURRENT EST 4.49 UP 2.75% FROM JUL 2002
                                                                                                                                                               1991              11.40           0.87                65.98                 1.39               2.55           23.25                 0.00            23.25
   3%                                                                                                              4.49        4.49           4.49             1990              11.89           0.85                66.17                 1.38               2.54           23.33                 1.17            24.50

   2%                                                                         4.45       4.45
                                                                                                     4.46                                                      1989              10.89           0.83                62.20                 1.37               2.48           19.22                 1.24            20.46
                                                                    4.42                                                                                       1988              10.09           0.84                62.58                 1.36               2.31           16.55                 0.00            16.55
   1%
                                                          4.39
          4.37                                   4.37
   0%                                                                                                                                                          1987               5.71           0.64                53.00                 1.27               2.24               5.48              7.68            13.16
                   4.36               4.36
                              4.35                                                                                                                             1986               9.28           0.82                60.34                 1.36               2.03           12.63                 0.00            12.63
  -1%
                                                                                                                                                               1985               8.63           0.86                63.25                 1.46               1.79           12.27                 0.00            12.27
          7/02     8/02       9/02    10/02      11/02   12/02      1/03      2/03       3/03        4/03          5/03        6/03       LAST
                                                                                                                                                               1984              12.10           0.91                62.37                 1.52               1.76           18.39                 -0.62           17.77
Comments: Procter & Gamble has exhibited extremely high and growing ROE compared to the S&P 500, although it has taken a small dip in 2003. Leverage has recently remained
steady, but has been growing consistantly since 1997.




SUMMARY

Rewards/Positives 1. P&G is looking to acquire German hair care company, Wella. The deal has been cleared by US Antitrust regulators, but P&G is still battling with preference
                  shareholders who are against the acquisition. This would be the largest acquisition in P&G's history. It will also increase P&G's competitiveness in beauty care,
                  which they have identified as a strong growth business unit

                                2.Increasing competition from P&G's Tampax tampons brand has hurt Playtex sales, which have fallen by $20 million. The new Tampax Pearl tampons has helped
                                P&G to gain over a 50% market share in plastic applicator tampons.


                                3. P&G CEO, AG Lafley, has decided to focus more on the company's core products, such as Tide and Crest. Core brands had been ignored by previous CEO's and
                                had lost market share. Lafley is now helping P&G to regain market share. For example, Crest toothpaste has recently regained a larger market share than Colgate.
                                Additionally, P&G's diaper brand, Pampers, has kept Kimberly Clark's diaper brand, Huggies, from growing as expected.



Risks/Negatives                 1. We expect the economy to go into an upturn, in which case P&G will underperform the S&P, as it is a non-cyclical company. However, P&G will most likely
                                outperform its competitors, such as Colgate, Kimberly Clark, and Lever because P&G sells premium products which will benefit from higher discretionary
                                spending.

                                2. P&G is trying to find a buyer for their Juice Brands, Sunny Delight and Punica, but are having difficulties. It is not likely that P&G will be able to find a buyer
                                willing to pay a premium.


Recommendation                  We recommend holding the current shares of Procter & Gamble. P&G is a very strong company, and is becoming increasingly more competitive in its industry.
(Including                      Although P&G is not expected to outperform the S&P when the market turns upward, it will continue to perform well in relation to its competitors.
Catalysts)

								
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