The 2011 Import and Export Market for Unmilled Oats in Latin America by ICONGroup

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									   The 2011 Import and Export
   Market for Unmilled Oats in
         Latin America




                                         By
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)




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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.



                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.



                               Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.



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                                                                                Contents        v


Table of Contents
1     METHODOLOGY                                                                           6
    1.1    Our Approach                                                                     6
2     LATIN AMERICA’S SHARE OF THE WORLD MARKET                                            10
    2.1    Exports from Latin America as Share of the World Export Market                  10
    2.2    Imports in Latin America as Share of the World Import Market                    12
3     EXPORTS FROM LATIN AMERICA                                                           16
    3.1    Executive Summary                                                               16
    3.2    Argentina                                                                       17
    3.3    Brazil                                                                          18
    3.4    Chile                                                                           18
    3.5    Guatemala                                                                       18
    3.6    Paraguay                                                                        19
    3.7    Uruguay                                                                         19
4     IMPORTS INTO LATIN AMERICA                                                           20
    4.1    Executive Summary                                                               20
    4.2    Argentina                                                                       21
    4.3    Colombia                                                                        22
    4.4    Ecuador                                                                         22
    4.5    El Salvador                                                                     22
    4.6    Guatemala                                                                       23
    4.7    Honduras                                                                        23
    4.8    Mexico                                                                          23
    4.9    Panama                                                                          24
    4.10   Peru                                                                            24
    4.11   Uruguay                                                                         24
5     DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS                               25
    5.1    Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                                       25
    5.2    ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                                       26




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                                                            Unmilled Oats in Latin America       6



1      METHODOLOGY
1.1         OUR APPROACH
On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners approaching the market in Latin America
face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying unmilled oats to Latin America?
What is the dollar value of these imports? How much do the imports of unmilled oats vary from
one country to another in Latin America? Do exporters serving the market in Latin America have
similar market shares across the importing countries? On the supply side, Latin America also
sells to the international market of unmilled oats. Which countries in Latin America supply the
most exports of unmilled oats? Which countries are buying their exports? What is the value of
these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for unmilled oats in Latin America.
With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view.
Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics that appear several years after the fact.
I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the
market for unmilled oats for those countries serving Latin America via exports or supplying from
Latin America via imports. We do so for the current year based on a variety of key historical
indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Latin America fits into the world
market for imported and exported unmilled oats. The total level of imports and exports on a
worldwide basis, and those for Latin America in particular, is based on a model which aggregates
across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each
country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of
competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares
by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination. These shares
lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to regional and
world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of both the value
of each market and the shares that countries in Latin America are likely to receive this year.
From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize markets within Latin
America. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined
with internal information for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports for Latin America,
Chapter 3 details the exports of unmilled oats, but for each individual country in Latin America.
Chapter 4 does the same, but for imports of unmilled oats for all countries in Latin America. In
all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are
provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present the complete picture for imports and exports of
unmilled oats to and from Latin America to and from all other countries in the world. Of the 150


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                                                              Unmilled Oats in Latin America        7

countries considered, if a country is not reported here it is therefore estimated to have only a
negligible level of trade in unmilled oats (i.e. their market shares are close or equal to zero
percent). "Unmilled Oats" as a category is defined in this report following the definition given by
the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard International
Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined "unmilled oats" is
0452 . For more information on this definition, please refer to the following web site:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcs.asp?Cl=14&Lg=1&Co=045 .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at www.icongrouponline.com.

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.

Related Reports. This report was created for the market for unmilled oats. Closely related
reports published by ICON Group include the following:

   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Bakery Mixes and Doughs for the Preparation of Bread,
       Pastry, Cakes, and Biscuits Export Supplies
   •   The 2011 World Market Forecasts for Imported Bakery Mixes and Doughs for the
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   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Bread, Baked Goods, Pastry, Cakes, Biscuits, Communion
       Wafers, Empty Cachets for Pharmaceutical Use, Sealing Wafers, and Rice Paper Export
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   •   The 2011 World Market Forecasts for Imported Bread, Baked Goods, Pastry, Cakes,
       Biscuits, Communion Wafers, Empty Cachets for Pharmaceutical Use, Sealing Wafers,
       and Rice Paper
   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Broken Rice Export Supplies
   •   The 2011 World Market Forecasts for Imported Broken Rice
   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Cereal Flours Excluding Wheat and Meslin Flours Export
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   •   The 2011 World Market Forecasts for Imported Cereal Flours Excluding Wheat and
       Meslin Flours
   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Cereal Flours Excluding Wheat, Meslin, and Corn Flours
       Export Supplies



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                                                      Unmilled Oats in Latin America     8

   •   The 2011 World Market Forecasts for Imported Cereal Flours Excluding Wheat, Meslin,
       and Corn Flours
   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Cereal Germ Export Supplies
   •   The 2011 World Market Forecasts for Imported Cereal Germ
   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Cereal Groats and Meal Excluding Those Made from Wheat
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   •   The 2011 World Market Forecasts for Imported Cereal Groats and Meal Excluding Those
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   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Cereal Groats, Meal, and Pellets Excluding Those Made
       from Wheat Export Supplies
   •   The 2011 World Market Forecasts for Imported Cereal Groats, Meal, and Pellets
       Excluding Those Made from Wheat
   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Corn Flakes and Other Prepared Foods Obtained by the
       Swelling or Roasting of Cereals or Cereal Products Export Supplies
   •   The 2011 World Market Forecasts for Imported Corn Flakes and Other Prepared Foods
       Obtained by the Swelling or Roasting of Cereals or Cereal Products
   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Corn Flour Export Supplies
   •   The 2011 World Market Forecasts for Imported Corn Flour
   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Corn Groats and Meal Export Supplies
   •   The 2011 World Market Forecasts for Imported Corn Groats and Meal
   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Corn Seed Export Supplies
   •   The 2011 World Market Forecasts for Imported Corn Seed
   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Crispbread, Rusks, Toasted Bread, and Similar Products
       Export Supplies
   •   The 2011 World Market Forecasts for Imported Crispbread, Rusks, Toasted Bread, and
       Similar Products
   •   The 2011 World Forecasts of Husked Rice Export Supplies
 
								
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