Braveheart's Best (c)-Sept23 by PaulyDeacon

VIEWS: 17 PAGES: 4

									Visit us at www.sharekhan.com                                                                               May 11, 2009


CRB Index
Weekly close: 405.5

The CRB index started the week with a gap-up, rose
considerably higher crossing 400 and closed the week at
405.50. This was the follow-up of the bullish engulfing
candlestick pattern seen in the earlier week. The index has
closed at the highest point of the week, which points to
further gains. We are extending the target marginally to
415, which is the equality target of the previous up-move.
There is also a cluster of resistances between 409 (50-weekly
exponential moving average [WEMA]) and 415. The KST
cycle (on the weekly chart) continues to ride its positive
crossover and is currently trading above the zero line,
whereas the daily KST is showing signs of negative
divergence. Hence, we are maintaining a cautiously bullish
stance. The reversal level has been tightened to 368.

 Trend         Trend       Supports    Resistances    Target
             Reversal

Up since          368     368.9/384        409/415       415
08-12-08




Gold
Weekly close: $916.05
Gold has breached the falling trend line from $1,005 in the
previous week and has closed in the green second week in
row. Prices are rising in a channel, the resistance for which
is at $935. The yellow metal is trading near the head and
shoulders pattern’s neckline, and as long as it is unable to
breach the neckline at $930, there remains a downside risk.
The KST cycle on the daily chart has moved in the positive
zone after a positive crossover of the moving average. The
weekly KST however remains in sell zone and the monthly
and quarterly cycles too are suggesting downward
momentum. We continue our bearish bias on gold with
reversal above $952 (61.8% retracement) and target of $800.

Trend          Trend       Supports    Resistances    Target
             Reversal
Down since       $952      $890/864      $935/950       $800
03-02-09




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Silver
Weekly close: $13.98

Silver blasted off during the week after breaking out of
falling wedge pattern, and retraced 79% of the fall from
$14.60 to $11.80. The KST cycle on the daily chart has
sharply entered the positive zone, but on the weekly and
monthly charts the same remains a drag. We have been
stopped out on our view in the previous report, however
we continue to maintain a bearish bias, as we believe this
is only a pullback of the overall down-move. Only on a break
above $14.60 will we be changing the bias. The modified
reversal is now pegged at $14.60 (March 2009 swing high)
and the target is toned down to $12.70.
Trend          Trend       Supports    Resistances     Target
             Reversal

Down since     $14.60   $13.80/13.33   $14.13/14.60    $12.70
03-02-09




Copper (Comex)
Weekly close: $2.15

Copper traded volatile during the week making two-sided
moves, but managed to close in the green posting marginal
gains. On the weekly charts, the final target of $2.38
remains to hold, however on the daily charts, such volatile
movements are non-confirming. The red metal continues
to trade in a rising channel with resistances at $2.235 and
$2.385. The higher degree time frames continue to show
underlying strength in the metal. The momentum cycle on
the daily chart is now showing signs of negative divergence,
although it remains in a positive zone. Looking at the price
moves and the momentum oscillator, we are becoming
cautiously bullish and recommend unloading of long
positions on rallies. We are maintaining the target of
$2.385 and reversal at $1.90.

Trend          Trend       Supports    Resistances     Target
             Reversal

Up since        $1.90     $2.06/1.90     $2.24/2.38     $2.38
08-12-08




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Crude
Weekly close: $58.63

After breaking out of consolidation range, crude prices
have rallied rapidly to breach past the previous major
resistance at $54.66 to test $58 mark during the week.
The momentum oscillator is moving higher albeit with some
signs of negative divergence on the daily chart. The weekly
picture continues to remain positive. Crude is on the verge
of completing an impulse move and an imminent correction
of the up-move is expected. Hence, we remain cautiously
bullish in the near term. The target of $60 (23.6%
retracement) remains intact. We are however tightening
the reversal level to $53.50.

Trend          Trend        Supports      Resistances    Target
             Reversal

Up since       $53.50    $55.50/53.50    $58.75/59.50       $60
02-05-09




Jeera

Weekly close: Rs11,777
After a doji candlestick pattern on the weekly chart in the
week prior, jeera prices plummeted during the week,
breaking below 12,000-mark and closing below it. With
that, the prices have broken below the rising channel and
the same are now expected to test lower levels going
forward. Jeera has however managed to close above the
key moving average of 21-WEMA and 50-WEMA. The
momentum oscillators have gone into a new bearish cycle
with the trigger coming in the last week. We continue to
hold our bias down for the target of 11,500 with reversal
above 13,100.


Trend           Trend     Supports      Resistances      Target
              Reversal

Down since    Rs13,100    Rs11,585/       Rs12,435/     Rs11,500
20-04-09                   Rs11,500        Rs13,100




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Sharekhan                                                                                                                        Braveheart’s Best (Commodities)


Pepper
Weekly close: Rs12,677

Pepper on the National Commodity and Derivatives
Exchange of India traded feeble during the week, however
its range was narrow. Pepper is now expected to continue
its downswing, and it will do the equality target of the
previous downswing targeting 11,700. The momentum on
the daily chart has weakened, whereas on the weekly chart
it is still quite strong, however with the price damage the
momentum has come down. For the current week, we
expect further weakness in price and a test of the 21-
WEMA and 50-WEMA is on the cards. We continue to hold
our bias down for the target of 11,700 with reversal pegged
at 13,625 (April 2009 swing high).

Trend               Trend           Supports       Resistances            Target
                  Reversal

Down since         Rs13,625         Rs12,375/         Rs13,220/        Rs11,700
20-04-09                             Rs12,000          Rs13,625




Soybean
Weekly close: Rs2,170
Soya bean price has moved down after testing the all-time
high of 2825 during the week. This makes it a contender for
a potential ‘double top’ reversal pattern. The 2830 mark
now remains a key resistance level that bulls need to surpass
to regain hold of the market. The weekly momentum
oscillator was showing negative divergence and is on the
verge of triggering a sell crossover of the moving average.
The daily oscillator has gone into sell mode, and hence the
bears can put pressure on the market. This week, we expect
a breakdown of the rising trend line and thus a breakdown
of this sharp upturn since November 2008. The target of
2,300 (38.2% retracement of the up-move from 1,520 to
2,825) remains intact and the reversal is pegged above 2,850.

Trend               Trend          Supports         Resistances           Target
                  Reversal

Down since          Rs2,850         Rs2,520/            Rs2,775/        Rs2,300
13-04-09                             Rs2,300             Rs2,825




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