REPORT TO FAMILY AND CHILDREN’S SERVICES OVERVIEW AND SCRUTINY COMMITTEE 25 JUNE 2009 Scoping of an inquiry into population trends and school rolls in Northumberland
1. A scoping report is attached which sets out the possible lines of enquiry of an inquiry into population trends and school rolls in Northumberland. 2. There are two possible ways in which such a review could be conducted. One would be by means of an inquiry by the whole committee, with evidence being gathered by the attendance of witnesses at committee or by briefing note from the scrutiny officer. 3. The alternative would be for the committee to form a task and finish working group to conduct the inquiry within boundaries set by the scoping report attached, and for the task and finish group to report its evidence, conclusions and recommendations to the committee for them to discuss and approve, should they see fit. 4. Such an approach would enable the members of the working group to gather evidence as they see fit, provided it is appropriately documented, and to deliver their report in a timely fashion. 5. A decision of the committee is required both to adopt the scoping report and, should the committee wish, to establish a working group; it is therefore recommended that Recommendation one The attached scoping report be adopted as the basis for an inquiry into population trends and school rolls in Northumberland, and Recommendation two That the inquiry be carried out by a working group appointed by the Family and Children’s Services Overview and Scrutiny Committee, and that the report of the working group be presented back to the committee within this council year.
Prepared by Gareth Davies
SCRUTINY SCOPING REPORT Prepared By Document Owner(s)
Gareth Davies
Role
Scrutiny Officer
Version Control Versio n
1.0
Date
30/04/09
Author
GD
Change Description
Initial preparation of document
TITLE: Population trends and school rolls in Northumberland
SUBJECT FOR REVIEW The impact of demographic change on education in Northumberland
REASON FOR REVIEW Request from members AIMS & OBJECTIVES
To identify trends in demand for school places To identify the risks associated with those trends To examine policy areas, such as housing policy, which may have an impact on the demand for school places To identify strategies / actions that might maximize the achievement of the council’s objectives in relation to: Future sustainability of schools Future sustainability of communities Improved educational and training outcomes
COUNCIL PRIORITIES To follow COMMITTEE FACS
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REVIEW LEAD SUPPORT OFFICER/s ADMIN/COMMITTEE SERVICES WITNESSES Experts/Members/Cooptees/Council Officers, Members of the Public etc) TIMESCALE
Cllr Richard Dodds Gareth Davies Administrative/Committee Services support in recording findings at meetings etc. List of witnesses to follow as per KLOE worksheet
3 – 6 months – recommendations to be agreed for submission to Council within the current civic year. CONSULTATION DOCUMENTATION It is proposed that if this plan is agreed by members at the June meeting of the FACS that there will be a closure date for the consultation of 1st August 2009 to allow responses to be considered at the September meeting. Consultation will be by way of a series of no more six questions around key themes with answers by way of free text (no more than 250 words per answer). As per KLOE plan None proposed As per KLOE Worksheet
RESEARCH EVIDENCE DOCUMENTATION SITE VISITS KEY ISSUES
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Key Lines of Enquiry
Review Title: Policy Area: Population trends and school rolls in Northumberland Family and Children’s Services Education
Service / Objective addressed:
Prepared By Document Owner(s)
Gareth Davies
Role
Scrutiny Officer
Version Control Versio n
1.0
Date
30/04/09
Author
GD
Change Description
Initial preparation of document
Draft G Davies
Page 4
7/1/2009
KLOE Purpose and Limitations
The purpose of this worksheet is to:
.
Identify the key lines of enquiry for the review. Identify the types of resources required for the work. Identify the type of evidence to be gathered. Develop estimates of the time required for each KLOE.
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KLOE Worksheet
KLOE ID 1.0
Description What is the demographic evidence for the future population even if no new housing is built in Northumberland? What is the likely impact of the regional spatial strategy on the demography of Northumberland? (Area / belonging communities breakdown if possible) What is the likely impact of the sub regional growth areas identified alongside the RSS? To what extent can local authorities influence the type of housing being built? Does Northumberland have the strategies and tools to address the housing needs of rural communities?
Evidence Type (e.g. quantitative, witness, data extract) Quantitative, witness
Complexity (How easy will the evidence be to gather / analyze) In house expertise
2.0
Quantitative, witness, consultation with stakeholders Quantitative, witness, consultation with stakeholders Witness In House (Head of Housing, Head of Planning / Development Control)
3.0
4.0
4.1
Witness, consultation with stakeholders
6
KLOE ID 5.0
Description What projections of school numbers have been prepared, and what do they show? What is the mechanism for predicting pupil numbers? What are the flows of pupils? (between schools and across county boundaries) How can we manage the flows of pupils? (If at all) What are the costs / benefits of pupil migration? Is there a critical mass / minimum school size What are the risks to a school if numbers fall below critical mass? Can the critical mass figure be managed or changed while maintaining an adequate curriculum? Would changes of pupil numbers / critical mass have a disproportionate financial impact on schools? Are there alternative methods of school organization
Evidence Type (e.g. quantitative, witness, data extract) Data, witness to explain
Complexity (How easy will the evidence be to gather / analyze) In House
6.0 7.0
Witness Witness, data
8.0 8.1 9.0 9.1
Witness, consultation with public Witness, consultation with public Witness, consultation with stakeholders Witness, consultation with stakeholders Witness, consultation with stakeholders Witness, consultation with stakeholders Witness, consultation with
10
11
12
7
KLOE ID
Description that can address falling rolls?
Evidence Type (e.g. quantitative, witness, data extract) stakeholders Witness, consultation with stakeholders
Complexity (How easy will the evidence be to gather / analyze)
13
What support is offered to schools to develop survival strategies?
8
9